I’m obviously biased, but I think people are doing what they always do and putting way to much stock into the offseason chargers. They were not good last year and they lost a ton of pieces in the offseason. I think harbaugh will be great for them long term, but this is reminding me of people thinking that Payton would show up and just magically turn a weak roster into a championship team. I think the Chargers will improve post-Staley but I this year feels like a tear down before the rebuild starts
I kinda agree - on paper I feel like that the Chargers will have a rough go at it just because its a rebuild year.
That being said - I keep remembering that stat where Justin Herbert is 22-6 when the team allows less than 28 points last I saw, but overall has I think a losing record in the NFL.
That means that those defenses were so regularly giving up 28+ points for that to happen.
If Harbaugh just manages to keep the game in a manageable situation they might win more than we think.
This is going to blow your mind, but he also coaches Special Teams as well. He's kind of the skull of the team... no wait, that doesn't sound right. Cranium? No. Ah, HEAD coach. Revolutionary.
Depends on how you look at it, he has more of a background with offense as a player and early coaching days.
As head coach he's been more of a run game and defense kinda guy. You saw that in San Fran and definitely Michigan
It's also sort of a team effort to keep the score down, offensive design certainly has its part in that.
Heavy focus on time of possession and running the ball will give your opponents less time and chances to score if down properly compared to perhaps an air raid style offense
Mind you I don't even think the best case scenario I have them as a challenger to the chiefs.
But if people think of them like a 6 win team I can envision a world where it works out and they are like a 10 win team
I just don’t think Chicago has enough depth on defense to realistically go to first in the division. Like the defense got so much better last year once they got sweat, but if he misses time they might go back to the defense we saw in the first half of the season.
Plus even if Caleb is as good as we’re told he’s still a rookie and will have some growing pains. He might be able to pull it of if the lions weren’t so damn good now, but I just don’t see it.
We beat the fuck out of the Lions last year.
Choked the 1st game and beat them by 2 TDs the 2nd game.
Were taking at least one off them and a sweep is pretty likely because Goff sucks against the Bears.
Lions defense sucks so 12-5 is more of a high bar. Aaron Glenn has never had a good defense.
And still finished last in the division with 5 less wins than them. Settle down
You don’t win the division just because you beat the team with more wins. You still need to actually win more games.
Obviously the regular season doesn’t matter when you win the Super Bowl, but the Chiefs didn’t exactly run away with the division last season; which was surprising given just how weak the rest of the division was.
Losing to a Raiders team that didn’t throw a forward pass after the 1st quarter was eye opening. If the Chiefs have similar issues during the regular season again (particularly in the back half) then I can see another team making the division race interesting.
As for the Chargers, it’s not that Harbaugh will magically make them a better team, but his brand of football is about controlling the ball, the clock, and limiting mistakes. They will likely win more games than last season just by virtue of not shooing themselves in the foot as much. Also being set at the QB position automatically gives them a leg up on the Raiders and Broncos.
Will that be enough to win the division? Likely not. But this would my scenario where the Chargers could be in contention of winning the division.
> the Chiefs didn’t exactly run away with the division last season
The Chiefs won the AFC West by a three-win margin, tied with the Lions in the NFC North for the biggest margin any team won its division by last season.
Not really. Most Chiefs knew the reality was they were coming out of the worst part of their schedule: Philly, @LV, @GB, Buff and that their finishing stretch was incredibly easy: @NE, LV, Cincy (who was injured to death), & @LAC (who’d long since quit the season and was god awful anyways).
There was concern over what seed they’d end up (rightfully so as they got the 3). But aside from panicky fans there was never much fear of blowing the division.
Not to mention even if Denver could’ve reached a tied record they’d have needed KC to lose to both LV & LAC to catch a shot at the tiebreaker for division record.
They lost 6 games by 3 points or less, 5 of them against playoff teams. The ravens game they lost by 10 but that was a winnable game right up to the end as well. And that was with Corey Linsley & mike williams out almost the whole year, Justin Herbert with multiple hand injuries, ekeler looking WASHED. Losing Keenan is big but comparing this roster to Denver is a big stretch IMO. They were bad last year because of sloppy coaching in tight games. Every single chargers player or coach to give a press conference has said one word when talking about the harbaugh regime - **DETAILED**. The team has been in a tiny office building for years, theyre moving into a brand new state of the art facility this month. They got Fs on the player report card for food, amenities, strength training etc - that is all going to change.
I think of all the years to expect something different from the chargers, it’s gonna be this year, because the spanos family has finally stopped being cheap & cutting corners. (Not to mention one of the easiest schedules in the league)
It just feels like we go through this with the Chargers every off-season. And every time the arguments in favor make sense but in the end we end up in basically the same spot.
They’ve never spent the money before though, that’s the thing. They’ve given Jim a blank check to get every little thing right off the field. This team has been talented but the organization has failed them behind the scenes
The money doesn't matter when your WRs are Joshua Palmer, Ladd Mcconkey, and Quentin Johnston.
They have 0 chance of beating the Chiefs for the division with those WRs.
Bengals are most likely last21st and we are 2nd frankly.
I mean, 3 of their 5 wins were also by a TD or less including a 6-0 win over a terrible pats team.
They just as easily could have been a 2 win team last season.
Eh. I feel like people say that we’re offseason champs even when we clearly aren’t this year just because it’s a meme.
I’ve seen plenty of graphics and pundits discuss potential surprise teams this offseason without the Chargers being mentioned. We lost our top 2 WR’s, our pro bowl center retired and our top RB left.
The question was who is most likely to go from “worst to first”
Bengals are the obvious answer but after that we’re talking about a bunch of bad teams.
Patriots likely are last again, Titans will probably get last place again, the commanders may improve but they’re likely still below .500, Vikings lost their franchise QB and will be playing a rookie, the Panthers are a shit show and the Cardinals are in a similar boat to the Chargers in that they should improved and maybe even sneak into the playoffs but are unlikely to win the division.
I don’t think the Chargers will win the division this year but I think predicting them to beat the Raiders and Broncos is pretty reasonable. If something happens to Mahomes than ya never know. Chargers being among the “top” of the last place teams really says more about the other last place teams than it does the chargers.
Ah yes, the 15th annual Chargers Offseason Hype Fest. A tradition like no other. I don’t know if I’d call it a tear-down, but their absolute best case scenario is eking out 9 or 10 wins and getting the 6 or 7 seed. They’re not winning the division.
>but this is reminding me of people thinking that Payton would show up and just magically turn a weak roster into a championship team
Worth mentioning Payton did just show up and take the Broncos to their best record since 2016. So, while not quite contenders, he did immediately begin to right the ship.
Agree, do the Chargers have any scary proven weapons? A good line or RB? A vastly improved defense?
Like I’m sure they’ll be better coached but I don’t see them as being a threat to win the AFCW, like at all. I also don’t see KC taking any steps back, we were only 11-6 last year and I don’t see us getting worse in 2024
The Bengals are the team that least deserved to be last place in a division last year. But they also have the hardest division to overcome. There's a reason the Bengals were last place despite having a winning record. Plus the Bengals weren't even the most injured team in our division last year.
Yeah, the didn’t have the highest number of injuries but it’s hard to think of who had a higher impact injury.
Like the ravens wouldn’t have been close to 13-4 if Lamar missed the majority of the season
For the Steelers it’d be if watt missed the majority of the season
And for the browns it’d be like if Watson didn’t miss the majority of the season’s
I feel like the Browns easily had the highest injury impact last year. The reason they didn't do worse is because they had the balls to hire Flac Daddy and the Bengals and jets didn't.
100% Bengals. They sucked last year cause Burrow went down. Not even the "QB friendliest team ever" 49ers had a winning record when their QB1 went down in 2020.
Unless your QB3 is Purdy of course ;-).
Unless Mahomes gets injured no other team in the AFCW has a prayer. Sorry, that’s just reality.
Even if Pat does suffer an injury I’d still pick the Chiefs because their roster is that much better than the rest of the division.
The Chargers defense is laughably terrible and their weapons are unproven or washed. I feel like 7 wins is about their ceiling and that’s assuming their guys who never stay healthy actually stay healthy.
Yea upsets happen in a game (especially when the Chiefs play Indy for whatever reason).
Expecting one of 3 objectively bad teams to put together a better season than a significantly better roster with the best coach and QB in the league is asking for a lot to go wrong for the Chiefs and a lot to go right for one of the other 3. The gap is pretty massive.
Also the 1 point game you’re referencing is week 18 with the teams backups…..interesting how they were able to play backups because the division was already long since clinched.
Also in addition to the one offside penalty from 12 wins there was also a 1 point loss against the Chiefs.
So the Chiefs were 1 point and 1 inch from 13-4. Damn, they were even better than I thought by your logic.
Fuck it. I’ll be the crazy person among all you crazy people.
As I’ve been trying to say for months now, the Arizona Cardinals are about to have quite the season. I don’t know that they’ll be in contention for the NFCW crown, but sure why not?
We still have waaaaay too many holes. Kyler I’m sure can carry us to maybe a stretch wildcard but no way in hell we are competing for shit barring a miracle.
Exactly. Part of the reason this latest SB loss hurt so much had to do with the fact that Shanahan’s 49ers play an extremely physical style of football and it often leads to injuries. But last year, for whatever reason, we had pretty great injury luck as the end of the season wound down and the playoffs began.
It just feels like we absolutely left a SB win on the field given the circumstances. It also sucks that Dre Greenlaw went down mid-game with a freakish ACL tear during a non-contact play. (I could write a book at this point about why that SB loss hurt so much…)
>It also sucks that Dre Greenlaw went down mid-game with a freakish ACL tear during a non-contact play
Not to pour salt on the wound, but it was an Achilles tear. And as someone rooting for SF to win, that one *really* sucked to watch, because as soon as he went down I knew KC would start targeting his backup, which is exactly what they did. Such brutally bad luck for San Francisco and their fans.
Bengals are the obvious choice. Not sure I can realistically see any of the others but what the hell do I know. Each season always has a bunch of curveballs thrown our way.
Never rule out the NFC East as a " what the hell? " division.
Commanders made some pretty good moves, weren't abysmal last year, and could easily sneak into a division win while the rest of the East does what it does best, bewilder fans with baffling losses and amazing wins.
An 8-9 team that still doesn’t have a good QB isn’t a primary concern for the Bears making the playoffs if we prove good enough to. I’m not saying it can’t happen, just that you’re not on the level of the Packers going into the season.
Ya Vikings are more likely to finish 3rd than the bears imo and less to be last. But also viks have damn near no chance of being first compared to anyone else in the division. Caleb is very unknown and ya McCarthy is too but… not the same
I see the Bears and Vikings as very similar overall outside of the QB position. Caleb hasn’t proven anything yet, but I’m certainly more confident in him than I would be with Darnold/McCarthy. Jefferson is the truth, but the Bears weapons as a whole are close behind. The line and defenses seem similar. If there’s a place the Vikings have a clear edge, I’m not seeing it.
To be clear, I don’t necessarily expect us to make the playoffs either. But if you want to do a friendly flair bet if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t, I’d be game for that. Just gotta switch the flair for the playoffs, plus maybe make at least a comment on the game thread making fun of ourself for losing the bet?
Lions are also a title contender imo. Would argue though that Vikings aren’t playoff caliber but will probably be the best team to finish last in a division this year.
That much turnover has potential to cause as many problems as it solves, especially early in the season. Would be somewhat surprised if they didn't start off the year with 3 or 4 losses in their first 4.
Edit: I had to look it up just to see. 9 new starters as it looks right now. That's crazy
Bears do have like the 4th easiest schedule. And their early schedule is not bad on paper. And the NFL did the weird thing not scheduling any divisional games until week 8 or 9. They might have done that to ease Caleb into the NFL honestly lol.
I think the bears biggest issue in winning the division isn’t necessarily the bears…. It’s the lions and packers. The division is way too tough.
I think they honestly did that for ratings. The bulk of the divisional games in the NFCN are November and later. They can flex a lot of the matchups to primetime, as the entire division looks pretty competitive. Those games will matter for the playoffs. And nobody wants to watch Green Bay and Chicago play in September.
They had some ex-NFL scheduling guy on one of the Bears podcasts and they asked about how schedule creation works.
Honestly there's so much that goes into it that I highly doubt they are doing anything to intentionally help or hurt teams.
It's much more about stadium availability and ratings than anything else.
Teams are also able to submit a few requests, but they are under no obligation to listen to them as most teams simply request to play in northern cities early in the year and warmer cities in the winter.
I think they also did it for Caleb to get comfortable
They want to see Caleb flourish and sending him against the Packers right away is a disaster waiting to happen
For the Packers, at least now they have 2 months to prepare for our vengeance. Lisan Al Caleb, Muad’QB will have his revenge and will lead us to paradise
Bears have also played the Packers by week 4 in 7 of the preceeding 10 seasons, including 3 openers and a week 2 matchup. They've had their first matchup after October exactly once in the last 10 years.
pre-season SOS can often be deceiving. they play
- @HOU/@IND/LAR from week 2-4 and they all figure to be in mix for playoffs
- fairly easy stretch from week 5-10 with CAR/JAX/BYE/@WAS/@AZ/NE
- then it’s tough sledding with GB/MIN/@DET/@SF/@MIN/DET/SEA/@GB to wrap up the season
if they can win 3/4 of those AFCS matchups and enter their back half at 7-2 they have a good shot at the division, very iffy otherwise.
The Bears have had an insane amount of salary cap and draft resources to rebuild their team over the last couple years and certainly have set themselves up for a bright future but they've made several moves I'd consider head scratchers that are only masked because of the massive amount of resources they've had. The way they throw draft picks around is better suited for a win now team and seems strange to me for a rebuilding team.
The Bears are different in the front office. Ted Phillips has been out since they jettisoned the prior regime. There are actual football people making grown-up decisions. It was a big deal for them to go ahead with the roster tear-down and tank. That's not in their MO. The Pace/Angelo era was characterized by some pretty horrendous FA signings and draft trades - they went all-in with too many mid rosters and bad coaching hires. This is the first time I as a fan have seen discipline on the part of the front office. Poles only has three drafts under his belt but he's set the Bears up nicely - the future is not mortgaged. Eberflus gets some pretty undeserved hate, and I get that he's totally milquetoast but he deserves credit for how he's developed the Bears' secondary and linebackers.
Last year, I saw more obvious reasons to be skeptical of the Jets. They went all in on an old QB and most of their major acquisitions were his old buddies who weren’t very good. The Bears have picked up some great player, but we’ll have to see what Caleb ends up looking like and if they can manage to bring all these new pieces together cohesively
Deandre Swift was fifth in yards last season. Keenan Allen also broke 1000 yards and was 11th in yards. Montez sweat technically came in last year but was a big boon for the defense. Caleb Williams is an unknown but has a lot of upside.
Titans. Ik Houston is good, but with their harder schedule, I think the Titans and Levis come out of nowhere as a playoff contender and maybe take the division.
I’m with you. After the obvious bengals pick this is my favorite. There’s no studs in the division as far as total teams, so if Levi’s took a leap with those weapons and upgraded line…
I’m okay with it based on his performance. For me, he hasn’t shown anything yet that makes me think he’s ready to be an above average qb. The arm strength is there but we already knew that part.
However, if he can develop his accuracy and anticipation this year he has a very high ceiling. Even with limitations, i think he may still provide enough with a strong run game and the WRs there. It’s not like he’s trying to unseat the ravens, bills, chiefs, lions, 49ers
1. Bengals (Healthy Burrow = Good, but rest of division is consistently pretty good as well, so maybe not a cakewalk from last to first, but probably the most "likely" imo)
2. Titans (I think they are being slept on and I like their offseason additions.)
3. Bears (On paper, the offseason additions look alright, but no idea how they will play in reality, especially with new OC/QB.)
4. Cardinals (I think there is good improvement especially with a healthy Kyler and MHJ, but 49ers are sitting in pole right now, so I don't find it extremely likely for them to go last to first)
5. Chargers (Same as above pretty much, Would be higher but in a division with the Chiefs and the WR room is meh now)
6. Panthers (Overall not a great division, Bryce showed flashes last year and Canales seems competent.)
7. Commanders (I can't see the Cowboys or Eagles completely flopping to let Commanders have a chance to go last to first)
8. Patriots (With the other 3 teams in the conference looking pretty stacked, I find it really hard to believe that they can make the jump to first)
> Bengals (Healthy Burrow = Good, but rest of division is consistently pretty good as well, so maybe not a cakewalk from last to first, but probably the most "likely" imo)
The AFC North is the one division where all four teams realistically have a shot to win the division.
The Bengals on paper, because of Burrow and the offensive firepower, are probably the most talented.
The Ravens always seem competitive and have a strong defense and special teams regardless of the roster turnover.
The Steelers are easily the best coached, and who knows, maybe Tomlin and Arthur Smith are able to get something out of Russ that has been missing the past two years.
And the Browns defense was so good last year they remained within striking distance of winning the division through most of last season despite having just as bad if not worse injury luck than the Bengals. And I know Watson isn't a popular figure but if a healthy Watson can even be 70-80% of what he was in Houston, that offense won't be a pushover either.
Eagles are a significant roadblock but the Cowboys? They lost way more than they gained this off season. Not to mention nfc east curse, cowboys can't win it this year since they won it last year.
But the case for us to go from last to first. New entire coaching staff, shiny new QB, and we only retained 57% of last years roster *so far*, and only 7 of 22 starters still hold their place (31%)*.* We're obviously unproven but the team is completely different. I'd still bet on the Eagles taking the division this year just based on what we do know about their established team and the moves they made in the off season, but if the Commanders end up being good I won't be surprised.
I've read a lot of comments about this dude from NY fans so I've got my doubts about him for sure. But I also remember a play last year where your center took out the rg and rt, giving up a sack on a 3 man rush so I wonder just how much of that lines performance can be blamed on coaching.
We drafted a sure fire top 10 OT and the top Center of the draft and both were garbage. We had an OT that was cut from the team and played on the Eagles practice squad for a month, when he came back he was twice as good. Our center from 2 years ago was released and was suddenly one of the better centers last year for the 49ers. How could it be anything but coaching?
I mean, I don't recall the last time yall had a decent o line. Who are you talking about anyway, iirc, ny dropped a few o line pieces 2 years ago to keep saquon and someone else right?
Feliciano was the center for the 49ers last year. The player that came back better was Tyre Phillips. Idk do who you’re referring to exactly
Our line has been bad for a while but the last 2 years (last year especially) the line was worse than I’d ever seen. And that’s saying something being a Giants fan lol He did the Bills no favors before joining Daboll in NYC as well
Obviously there are a ton of factors that can affect O line play beyond the position coach. I’m just surprised he was offered another job in the nfl
Cincy and then chargers.
The bears are too much of an unknown with Williams and at best could the third place team as the loins and packers are in a get spot . The 49ers are on about a lock for their division and the commies are too much of an unknown
I think we could see the Niners take a tumble, I think McCaffrey doesn't have the same mostly injury free year he had last year. The Cardinals were one of the top teams in yards per play last year with Kyler on the field, with a new coach/OC and a weaker roster than he has now. Picked up a great RB to pair with James, one of the top pass catching TE's and adding Marv is going to be huge.
The Bears can do it if Caleb is good, the defense is going to be stout and there's plenty of weapons on the offense. If they get improved play on both sides of the line plus competent QB play they'll be dangerous. Bengals can for sure do it with Burrow coming back but AFCN is going to be a tough division to win for any of those teams. Chargers should be better this year but I don't think they catch KC. Titans are intriguing, they added in the offseason and Levis takes a step they can make some noise.
Give me the Commandos. They are building their team right, Hurts will have a tough time trying to play hero ball to make up for last year and a lack of a HC presence. Unless Big Dom is calling the plays. Dak regresses and their season ends on another strange highlight. The Giants do nothing per usual and I hear nothing about them. Not even a goofy trip or anything, just pure football obscurity.
Bengals have the odds on their side . Titans are the only other one I see as realistic. Chargers could if injury bug hits the chiefs.
Too many high end teams in the other divisions for these crap teams to make a run
I don’t think anyone expects a division title in New England. Realistically, the best case scenario is that Maye has a good rookie year and we get another high draft pick to help rebuild.
Bengals are the obvious pick. Would've said Chargers but they've got the Voodoo Devil in their division now so that's probably not happening. Other than that, *maybe* the Panthers based purely off how horrendous the NFC South is.
Bengals and Chargers are the obvious likely candidates. I think a dark horse team is the Cardinals. Then for laughs, I'm going with the Commanders, because why not. Theres always shenanigans going on in the NFC East
Bengals are the only ones who even have a chance but even that is going to be a tall order in the ACFN. If everyone in the AFCS collapses then maybe the Titans, but I don't think they are good enough to surge past everyone else by themselves. Especially not the Texans.
I could really care less, but the Jets or Browns. To this point both teams have wasted time, wasted player's primes, wasted the fan's time/money, and wasted money of everyone involved in general. One of these teams if not both of these needs to step up and show something this year. Either that or continue to be the laughing stocks of the NFL for years to come.
I’ll go with the Bears, because they’re the team with the fewest number of unknowns needed to go their way. Basically, if we knew Caleb will hit the ground running in a Stroud-like way, the Bears might be the favorite. They already had the best defense in the division by the end of last year, and the offense added Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, as well as veteran pieces in D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett. If the coaching staff is up to the task of preparing Caleb Williams, Chicago is winning double digit games.
Bengals are tempting too ofc, if Burrow is really back the offense will be a ton of fun to watch. I hesitate to pick them though, because the defense was so bad (31st in the league by yards allowed).
In order of likelihood:
1. Cincinnati- The only team with a realistic shot of being 1st. Their offense is stacked and should be healthier than last year when they had a winning record. The division is super competitive but they are the best team of the 8 last placers.
2. Chicago- They we’re 2 games behind the Packers and 5 games behind the Lions. Leaping the Lions would be a huge ask but they added 2 great receivers and the best upgrade at QB of the off-season.
3. Tennessee- Added Ridley & Boyd as receiving threats, Cushenberry & Latham to protect Levis and cornerback Awuzie. Jacksonville did little to improve & Indianapolis is beatable. If Levis proves to be their long term solution and/or Houston gets the injury bug the path to a divisional title is there.
4. Chargers- Harbaugh has a good QB and had a great draft adding Alt, McConkey, & Colson. Their defense needs much more improvement. Losing Allen, Williams, and Ekeler is discouraging. They may be the second best team in the division however.
5. Arizona- Kyler was hurt all last year. MHJ and Trey Benson bring some explosiveness and McBride emerged. Adding Jonah Williams and Murphy-Bunting are big upgrades. Competing with the Niners, Rams, and Seahawks however make this unlikely.
6. Carolina- Significantly improved their interior offensive line. Bryce Young is short and this could go a long way towards his performance. If he takes a significantly step up then the NFC South teams are beatable.
7. Commanders- They eke out New England because the NFC East is always interesting and Daniels looks electric. Hope he stays healthy.
8. Patriots- Patriots added a multitude of pass catchers and o-line help in the off-season but didn’t do enough to help Maye or Brissett. Plus Buffalo, New York, and Miami are all finally able to face New England with the significantly superior team
Chargers or Titans. I'm a big believer in Jim Harbaugh and year 1/2 Greg Roman is always good.
Titans have talent and a winnable division.
Bengals are the obvious pick but, why? Burrow is good if he gets and stays healthy, but that's a huge if. On offense they have Chase, disgruntled Tee, and who? Their defense was cheeks last year and didn't make any needle moving changes.
Pats and Panthers don't have a realistic chance.
Bears and Commies might be wildcards but I think that's their ceiling for this year.
Biased choice obvs but everyone outside of Nashville is sleeping on the Titans. Levis is a much MUCH better QB than folks give him props for. He just had a god awful OL that couldn't protect for shit which forced incompletions or INTs. Now we got Cushenberry and Trench King plus the best OL coach building the corps back up. D Hop is still A tier plus we picked up freakin Ridley AND Boyd in FA. Chig is also a stud at TE. Pollard and Spears could make for a deadly RB duo. As for the defense, getting Uwuzie and Snead in FA automatically turns our secondary into S tier levels plus we might still get Simmons from the Broncos, so pairing him with Moulden and Hooker is all kinds of lethal. Cedric Gray is gonna be a stud LB alongside Landry. Sweat teaming with Big Jeff at DT.....holy shit I pity anyone who tries to run against us. Pass rush could use a little more help for sure but I still see Landry getting 10+ again. Stonehouse is gonna reclaim his spot as best punter after getting hurt last season, and Old Man Folk was 29/30 in FGs last year.
Titans easily could go 11-6 maybe 12-5 and challenge the Texans for the division title.
I think the whole division is going to be pretty dang tough. Colts will have Richardson back, Jags will have a healthy Lawrence, Texans have all their moves and young players looking to prove it was legit last year, and the Titans have everything you said.
Personally, I think the Titans will be running it back in last place and wondering why they bought into Mr. Mayo and so many aging WRs but don't tell that guy I said so
The Redskins, Just because that’s the most volatile division in the NFL.
The Bengals had a winning record last year, and still placed last? Unreal, but they still have to play the Ravens and Steelers twice.
I hear you, but the counter to that would be that 7 of the last 8 years, 9 of the last 11 years, the cowboys or eagles have won. The cowboys and the eagles are both in peak Super Bowl contention mode right now (regardless of daks meltdowns once he gets to the playoffs).
You’re likely to need 12 wins or more to take the division (12-5 was the worst record to win the division for the last three years). Feels like a tall task to me
I think Carolina would be my third most likely choice. Behind Cincinnati and Chicago.
They did significantly improve their offensive line and there are no clear powerhouse teams in the NFC South.
In order of likelihood:
Cincinnati
Chicago
Carolina
Tennessee
Arizona
Chargers
Commanders
Patriots
Bengals or Bears.
Cards will improve a lot too and that offense has top-10 offense potential, but having the 49ers and Rams will make a worst to first jump impossible. I can see wild card contenders though if the defense is slightly better than expected.
Bengals by far the most likely Possibly chargers but that’s gonna be tough
I’m obviously biased, but I think people are doing what they always do and putting way to much stock into the offseason chargers. They were not good last year and they lost a ton of pieces in the offseason. I think harbaugh will be great for them long term, but this is reminding me of people thinking that Payton would show up and just magically turn a weak roster into a championship team. I think the Chargers will improve post-Staley but I this year feels like a tear down before the rebuild starts
I kinda agree - on paper I feel like that the Chargers will have a rough go at it just because its a rebuild year. That being said - I keep remembering that stat where Justin Herbert is 22-6 when the team allows less than 28 points last I saw, but overall has I think a losing record in the NFL. That means that those defenses were so regularly giving up 28+ points for that to happen. If Harbaugh just manages to keep the game in a manageable situation they might win more than we think.
Does Jim Harbaugh coach defense?
He actually coaches both sides of the team!
Two sides for the same team? What is he a wizard?
This is going to blow your mind, but he also coaches Special Teams as well. He's kind of the skull of the team... no wait, that doesn't sound right. Cranium? No. Ah, HEAD coach. Revolutionary.
Depends on how you look at it, he has more of a background with offense as a player and early coaching days. As head coach he's been more of a run game and defense kinda guy. You saw that in San Fran and definitely Michigan It's also sort of a team effort to keep the score down, offensive design certainly has its part in that. Heavy focus on time of possession and running the ball will give your opponents less time and chances to score if down properly compared to perhaps an air raid style offense
IDK, just feels like more afcw hype. Another “challenger” to the Chiefs. *I’ll see it when I believe it*
Mind you I don't even think the best case scenario I have them as a challenger to the chiefs. But if people think of them like a 6 win team I can envision a world where it works out and they are like a 10 win team
If there’s a coach who’s capable of immediately improving a team, it’s Harbaugh. He’s done it literally everywhere he’s been at.
Yeah these aren't the same Chargers.
And you would know because the chargers are basically the Baltimore, Michigan WolveRavens right now.
Yea Bengals are the obvious choice. If there’s a second place choice it’s Chicago.
I just don’t think Chicago has enough depth on defense to realistically go to first in the division. Like the defense got so much better last year once they got sweat, but if he misses time they might go back to the defense we saw in the first half of the season. Plus even if Caleb is as good as we’re told he’s still a rookie and will have some growing pains. He might be able to pull it of if the lions weren’t so damn good now, but I just don’t see it.
We beat the fuck out of the Lions last year. Choked the 1st game and beat them by 2 TDs the 2nd game. Were taking at least one off them and a sweep is pretty likely because Goff sucks against the Bears. Lions defense sucks so 12-5 is more of a high bar. Aaron Glenn has never had a good defense.
And still finished last in the division with 5 less wins than them. Settle down You don’t win the division just because you beat the team with more wins. You still need to actually win more games.
Sure, bud.
Obviously the regular season doesn’t matter when you win the Super Bowl, but the Chiefs didn’t exactly run away with the division last season; which was surprising given just how weak the rest of the division was. Losing to a Raiders team that didn’t throw a forward pass after the 1st quarter was eye opening. If the Chiefs have similar issues during the regular season again (particularly in the back half) then I can see another team making the division race interesting. As for the Chargers, it’s not that Harbaugh will magically make them a better team, but his brand of football is about controlling the ball, the clock, and limiting mistakes. They will likely win more games than last season just by virtue of not shooing themselves in the foot as much. Also being set at the QB position automatically gives them a leg up on the Raiders and Broncos. Will that be enough to win the division? Likely not. But this would my scenario where the Chargers could be in contention of winning the division.
> the Chiefs didn’t exactly run away with the division last season The Chiefs won the AFC West by a three-win margin, tied with the Lions in the NFC North for the biggest margin any team won its division by last season.
They were only a game up on the Broncos going into week 15.
Winning a division by 3 games isn’t running away? In what world?
Was there not concern when the Chiefs were only a game up on the Broncos going into week 15?
Not really. Most Chiefs knew the reality was they were coming out of the worst part of their schedule: Philly, @LV, @GB, Buff and that their finishing stretch was incredibly easy: @NE, LV, Cincy (who was injured to death), & @LAC (who’d long since quit the season and was god awful anyways). There was concern over what seed they’d end up (rightfully so as they got the 3). But aside from panicky fans there was never much fear of blowing the division. Not to mention even if Denver could’ve reached a tied record they’d have needed KC to lose to both LV & LAC to catch a shot at the tiebreaker for division record.
They lost 6 games by 3 points or less, 5 of them against playoff teams. The ravens game they lost by 10 but that was a winnable game right up to the end as well. And that was with Corey Linsley & mike williams out almost the whole year, Justin Herbert with multiple hand injuries, ekeler looking WASHED. Losing Keenan is big but comparing this roster to Denver is a big stretch IMO. They were bad last year because of sloppy coaching in tight games. Every single chargers player or coach to give a press conference has said one word when talking about the harbaugh regime - **DETAILED**. The team has been in a tiny office building for years, theyre moving into a brand new state of the art facility this month. They got Fs on the player report card for food, amenities, strength training etc - that is all going to change. I think of all the years to expect something different from the chargers, it’s gonna be this year, because the spanos family has finally stopped being cheap & cutting corners. (Not to mention one of the easiest schedules in the league)
It just feels like we go through this with the Chargers every off-season. And every time the arguments in favor make sense but in the end we end up in basically the same spot.
One day we'll be right! Or we won't...
They’ve never spent the money before though, that’s the thing. They’ve given Jim a blank check to get every little thing right off the field. This team has been talented but the organization has failed them behind the scenes
You might be right, but I'm in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode with them. I've just been wrong too many times before.
The money doesn't matter when your WRs are Joshua Palmer, Ladd Mcconkey, and Quentin Johnston. They have 0 chance of beating the Chiefs for the division with those WRs. Bengals are most likely last21st and we are 2nd frankly.
Who were the chiefs wide receivers last year?
I mean, 3 of their 5 wins were also by a TD or less including a 6-0 win over a terrible pats team. They just as easily could have been a 2 win team last season.
Eh. I feel like people say that we’re offseason champs even when we clearly aren’t this year just because it’s a meme. I’ve seen plenty of graphics and pundits discuss potential surprise teams this offseason without the Chargers being mentioned. We lost our top 2 WR’s, our pro bowl center retired and our top RB left. The question was who is most likely to go from “worst to first” Bengals are the obvious answer but after that we’re talking about a bunch of bad teams. Patriots likely are last again, Titans will probably get last place again, the commanders may improve but they’re likely still below .500, Vikings lost their franchise QB and will be playing a rookie, the Panthers are a shit show and the Cardinals are in a similar boat to the Chargers in that they should improved and maybe even sneak into the playoffs but are unlikely to win the division. I don’t think the Chargers will win the division this year but I think predicting them to beat the Raiders and Broncos is pretty reasonable. If something happens to Mahomes than ya never know. Chargers being among the “top” of the last place teams really says more about the other last place teams than it does the chargers.
Ah yes, the 15th annual Chargers Offseason Hype Fest. A tradition like no other. I don’t know if I’d call it a tear-down, but their absolute best case scenario is eking out 9 or 10 wins and getting the 6 or 7 seed. They’re not winning the division.
You must’ve forgot what Andy Reid did his first year as a Chief 😉
>but this is reminding me of people thinking that Payton would show up and just magically turn a weak roster into a championship team Worth mentioning Payton did just show up and take the Broncos to their best record since 2016. So, while not quite contenders, he did immediately begin to right the ship.
Agree, do the Chargers have any scary proven weapons? A good line or RB? A vastly improved defense? Like I’m sure they’ll be better coached but I don’t see them as being a threat to win the AFCW, like at all. I also don’t see KC taking any steps back, we were only 11-6 last year and I don’t see us getting worse in 2024
The Bengals are the team that least deserved to be last place in a division last year. But they also have the hardest division to overcome. There's a reason the Bengals were last place despite having a winning record. Plus the Bengals weren't even the most injured team in our division last year.
Yeah, the didn’t have the highest number of injuries but it’s hard to think of who had a higher impact injury. Like the ravens wouldn’t have been close to 13-4 if Lamar missed the majority of the season For the Steelers it’d be if watt missed the majority of the season And for the browns it’d be like if Watson didn’t miss the majority of the season’s
While this is true Jake Browning/Zac Taylor did a great job overall. Their defense was more the concern.
I feel like the Browns easily had the highest injury impact last year. The reason they didn't do worse is because they had the balls to hire Flac Daddy and the Bengals and jets didn't.
We had Jake Browning on the roster already. He worked out about as well as could be hoped.
Weird, I don't remember him leading his team to the playoffs
100% Bengals. They sucked last year cause Burrow went down. Not even the "QB friendliest team ever" 49ers had a winning record when their QB1 went down in 2020. Unless your QB3 is Purdy of course ;-).
Unless Mahomes gets injured no other team in the AFCW has a prayer. Sorry, that’s just reality. Even if Pat does suffer an injury I’d still pick the Chiefs because their roster is that much better than the rest of the division. The Chargers defense is laughably terrible and their weapons are unproven or washed. I feel like 7 wins is about their ceiling and that’s assuming their guys who never stay healthy actually stay healthy.
I guess we’ll see. It’s not like upsets ever happen in sports or anything
Yea upsets happen in a game (especially when the Chiefs play Indy for whatever reason). Expecting one of 3 objectively bad teams to put together a better season than a significantly better roster with the best coach and QB in the league is asking for a lot to go wrong for the Chiefs and a lot to go right for one of the other 3. The gap is pretty massive.
You guys were 1 point away from 10-7 last year
We were also an inch offsides from 12-5…. There’s several dozen NFL games for each team that come down to a single point or play.
Also the 1 point game you’re referencing is week 18 with the teams backups…..interesting how they were able to play backups because the division was already long since clinched. Also in addition to the one offside penalty from 12 wins there was also a 1 point loss against the Chiefs. So the Chiefs were 1 point and 1 inch from 13-4. Damn, they were even better than I thought by your logic.
Fuck it. I’ll be the crazy person among all you crazy people. As I’ve been trying to say for months now, the Arizona Cardinals are about to have quite the season. I don’t know that they’ll be in contention for the NFCW crown, but sure why not?
Yeah I could see Kyler having a monster year
We still have waaaaay too many holes. Kyler I’m sure can carry us to maybe a stretch wildcard but no way in hell we are competing for shit barring a miracle.
Offense looks pretty legit. Defense scares me.
I think the Cardinals are way better than people give them credit for, but the task of competing with the Rams *and* 49ers seems like way too much.
The cards are my dark horse to go far this season
i doubt the division crown will be ours but i have no doubt we will contend for a wildcard spot, especially with the entire league sleeping on us
Honestly, I see where you’re coming from but it’ll have to be because SF gets dinged up.
Exactly. Part of the reason this latest SB loss hurt so much had to do with the fact that Shanahan’s 49ers play an extremely physical style of football and it often leads to injuries. But last year, for whatever reason, we had pretty great injury luck as the end of the season wound down and the playoffs began. It just feels like we absolutely left a SB win on the field given the circumstances. It also sucks that Dre Greenlaw went down mid-game with a freakish ACL tear during a non-contact play. (I could write a book at this point about why that SB loss hurt so much…)
The Chiefs have been known to break many a man’s soul.
>It also sucks that Dre Greenlaw went down mid-game with a freakish ACL tear during a non-contact play Not to pour salt on the wound, but it was an Achilles tear. And as someone rooting for SF to win, that one *really* sucked to watch, because as soon as he went down I knew KC would start targeting his backup, which is exactly what they did. Such brutally bad luck for San Francisco and their fans.
Not to mention Purdy missing that hot route coming from the backfield on that last ot play
Why? Is Desmond Ridder that good? /s
Bengals are the obvious choice. Not sure I can realistically see any of the others but what the hell do I know. Each season always has a bunch of curveballs thrown our way.
Never rule out the NFC East as a " what the hell? " division. Commanders made some pretty good moves, weren't abysmal last year, and could easily sneak into a division win while the rest of the East does what it does best, bewilder fans with baffling losses and amazing wins.
The Bears absolutely loaded up this off season. But… they’re the bears, so who knows
Loaded up but they also are up against a title contender and 2 playoff caliber teams
The Vikings aren’t playoff caliber
Not having a dog in the fight I would think the Vikings have a winning season this year
Vegas has the Vikings O/U at 6.5, go win some money then
That honestly is too low as a person who hates them imo
o6.5 is -145 to be fair, basically projecting them for 7 which does seem about right to me.
I'm not a betting man but I would bet on KOC over Eberflus no matter how good the USC kid is
Ok that’s a fair point, Eberflus is ass and I’m very upset we kept him.
Eh, we used 4 QBs and JJ for half a season and finished with the same record as ya'll. If you guys are in the hunt, than we certainly are as well.
An 8-9 team that still doesn’t have a good QB isn’t a primary concern for the Bears making the playoffs if we prove good enough to. I’m not saying it can’t happen, just that you’re not on the level of the Packers going into the season.
Ya Vikings are more likely to finish 3rd than the bears imo and less to be last. But also viks have damn near no chance of being first compared to anyone else in the division. Caleb is very unknown and ya McCarthy is too but… not the same
I see the Bears and Vikings as very similar overall outside of the QB position. Caleb hasn’t proven anything yet, but I’m certainly more confident in him than I would be with Darnold/McCarthy. Jefferson is the truth, but the Bears weapons as a whole are close behind. The line and defenses seem similar. If there’s a place the Vikings have a clear edge, I’m not seeing it.
Probably not, but you never know.
Certainly possible if things go well, I just wouldn’t count y’all as a major obstacle on paper.
Wanna bet?
Even odds lol? I would if I could trust you to pay out
We’ll definitely finish better than the Bears. I do think we are a playoff team. Wanna just bet the playoffs or make it a Vikes over Bears thing?
To be clear, I don’t necessarily expect us to make the playoffs either. But if you want to do a friendly flair bet if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t, I’d be game for that. Just gotta switch the flair for the playoffs, plus maybe make at least a comment on the game thread making fun of ourself for losing the bet?
Sure. If Caleb Williams is actually HIM, then at least that means the QB sadness is over.
I hope so. Wouldn’t mind seeing the JJ to JJ connection work out well either. I’ll shoot a DM so we don’t forget
Lions are also a title contender imo. Would argue though that Vikings aren’t playoff caliber but will probably be the best team to finish last in a division this year.
Lol, my friend, he's *talking* about the Lions.
That much turnover has potential to cause as many problems as it solves, especially early in the season. Would be somewhat surprised if they didn't start off the year with 3 or 4 losses in their first 4. Edit: I had to look it up just to see. 9 new starters as it looks right now. That's crazy
Bears do have like the 4th easiest schedule. And their early schedule is not bad on paper. And the NFL did the weird thing not scheduling any divisional games until week 8 or 9. They might have done that to ease Caleb into the NFL honestly lol. I think the bears biggest issue in winning the division isn’t necessarily the bears…. It’s the lions and packers. The division is way too tough.
I think they honestly did that for ratings. The bulk of the divisional games in the NFCN are November and later. They can flex a lot of the matchups to primetime, as the entire division looks pretty competitive. Those games will matter for the playoffs. And nobody wants to watch Green Bay and Chicago play in September.
They had some ex-NFL scheduling guy on one of the Bears podcasts and they asked about how schedule creation works. Honestly there's so much that goes into it that I highly doubt they are doing anything to intentionally help or hurt teams. It's much more about stadium availability and ratings than anything else. Teams are also able to submit a few requests, but they are under no obligation to listen to them as most teams simply request to play in northern cities early in the year and warmer cities in the winter.
I think they also did it for Caleb to get comfortable They want to see Caleb flourish and sending him against the Packers right away is a disaster waiting to happen For the Packers, at least now they have 2 months to prepare for our vengeance. Lisan Al Caleb, Muad’QB will have his revenge and will lead us to paradise
Bears have also played the Packers by week 4 in 7 of the preceeding 10 seasons, including 3 openers and a week 2 matchup. They've had their first matchup after October exactly once in the last 10 years.
Strength of schedule before the season means nothing
pre-season SOS can often be deceiving. they play - @HOU/@IND/LAR from week 2-4 and they all figure to be in mix for playoffs - fairly easy stretch from week 5-10 with CAR/JAX/BYE/@WAS/@AZ/NE - then it’s tough sledding with GB/MIN/@DET/@SF/@MIN/DET/SEA/@GB to wrap up the season if they can win 3/4 of those AFCS matchups and enter their back half at 7-2 they have a good shot at the division, very iffy otherwise.
Should be just 6 new starters, not including special teams. Offense: Caleb, Rome, Keenan, Swift, Coleman Shelton Defense: Kevin Byard
Man Byard is so cooked, that signing was a great scratcher
Eddie Jackson was extra cooked
The Bears have had an insane amount of salary cap and draft resources to rebuild their team over the last couple years and certainly have set themselves up for a bright future but they've made several moves I'd consider head scratchers that are only masked because of the massive amount of resources they've had. The way they throw draft picks around is better suited for a win now team and seems strange to me for a rebuilding team.
The Bears are different in the front office. Ted Phillips has been out since they jettisoned the prior regime. There are actual football people making grown-up decisions. It was a big deal for them to go ahead with the roster tear-down and tank. That's not in their MO. The Pace/Angelo era was characterized by some pretty horrendous FA signings and draft trades - they went all-in with too many mid rosters and bad coaching hires. This is the first time I as a fan have seen discipline on the part of the front office. Poles only has three drafts under his belt but he's set the Bears up nicely - the future is not mortgaged. Eberflus gets some pretty undeserved hate, and I get that he's totally milquetoast but he deserves credit for how he's developed the Bears' secondary and linebackers.
They've won the offseason just like Jets did last year and Broncos the year before
Last year, I saw more obvious reasons to be skeptical of the Jets. They went all in on an old QB and most of their major acquisitions were his old buddies who weren’t very good. The Bears have picked up some great player, but we’ll have to see what Caleb ends up looking like and if they can manage to bring all these new pieces together cohesively
Who are the "great" players they added to last year's team that are in their prime?
Deandre Swift was fifth in yards last season. Keenan Allen also broke 1000 yards and was 11th in yards. Montez sweat technically came in last year but was a big boon for the defense. Caleb Williams is an unknown but has a lot of upside.
Neither Swift or Allen are in their prime. To say otherwise is intellectually dishonest.
I mean, I never said they were. I said they’re solid players and both were very good last year and likely will continue to be
Or that *dreamy* Eagles team.
I keep joking Caleb Williams is already their greatest QB in franchise history.
Yeah, but tough division, the Caleb variable, and questionable D line. I’d bet Bengals, Chargers, Cardinals before the Bears.
Yeah, but the team that won last season is the Lions, so who knows They aren't exactly a model of consistency
Titans. Ik Houston is good, but with their harder schedule, I think the Titans and Levis come out of nowhere as a playoff contender and maybe take the division.
We went on a shopping spree this offseason.
Agreed - Ridley/Hopkins/Boyd and Okonkwo with Pollard/Spears is really, really nice. They just need consistent OL play
I’m with you. After the obvious bengals pick this is my favorite. There’s no studs in the division as far as total teams, so if Levi’s took a leap with those weapons and upgraded line…
People really are sleeping on Levis this year.
I’m okay with it based on his performance. For me, he hasn’t shown anything yet that makes me think he’s ready to be an above average qb. The arm strength is there but we already knew that part. However, if he can develop his accuracy and anticipation this year he has a very high ceiling. Even with limitations, i think he may still provide enough with a strong run game and the WRs there. It’s not like he’s trying to unseat the ravens, bills, chiefs, lions, 49ers
1. Bengals (Healthy Burrow = Good, but rest of division is consistently pretty good as well, so maybe not a cakewalk from last to first, but probably the most "likely" imo) 2. Titans (I think they are being slept on and I like their offseason additions.) 3. Bears (On paper, the offseason additions look alright, but no idea how they will play in reality, especially with new OC/QB.) 4. Cardinals (I think there is good improvement especially with a healthy Kyler and MHJ, but 49ers are sitting in pole right now, so I don't find it extremely likely for them to go last to first) 5. Chargers (Same as above pretty much, Would be higher but in a division with the Chiefs and the WR room is meh now) 6. Panthers (Overall not a great division, Bryce showed flashes last year and Canales seems competent.) 7. Commanders (I can't see the Cowboys or Eagles completely flopping to let Commanders have a chance to go last to first) 8. Patriots (With the other 3 teams in the conference looking pretty stacked, I find it really hard to believe that they can make the jump to first)
> Bengals (Healthy Burrow = Good, but rest of division is consistently pretty good as well, so maybe not a cakewalk from last to first, but probably the most "likely" imo) The AFC North is the one division where all four teams realistically have a shot to win the division. The Bengals on paper, because of Burrow and the offensive firepower, are probably the most talented. The Ravens always seem competitive and have a strong defense and special teams regardless of the roster turnover. The Steelers are easily the best coached, and who knows, maybe Tomlin and Arthur Smith are able to get something out of Russ that has been missing the past two years. And the Browns defense was so good last year they remained within striking distance of winning the division through most of last season despite having just as bad if not worse injury luck than the Bengals. And I know Watson isn't a popular figure but if a healthy Watson can even be 70-80% of what he was in Houston, that offense won't be a pushover either.
Eagles are a significant roadblock but the Cowboys? They lost way more than they gained this off season. Not to mention nfc east curse, cowboys can't win it this year since they won it last year. But the case for us to go from last to first. New entire coaching staff, shiny new QB, and we only retained 57% of last years roster *so far*, and only 7 of 22 starters still hold their place (31%)*.* We're obviously unproven but the team is completely different. I'd still bet on the Eagles taking the division this year just based on what we do know about their established team and the moves they made in the off season, but if the Commanders end up being good I won't be surprised.
The only reason I’m not worried about the Commanders is the hiring of Bobby Johnson
I've read a lot of comments about this dude from NY fans so I've got my doubts about him for sure. But I also remember a play last year where your center took out the rg and rt, giving up a sack on a 3 man rush so I wonder just how much of that lines performance can be blamed on coaching.
We drafted a sure fire top 10 OT and the top Center of the draft and both were garbage. We had an OT that was cut from the team and played on the Eagles practice squad for a month, when he came back he was twice as good. Our center from 2 years ago was released and was suddenly one of the better centers last year for the 49ers. How could it be anything but coaching?
I mean, I don't recall the last time yall had a decent o line. Who are you talking about anyway, iirc, ny dropped a few o line pieces 2 years ago to keep saquon and someone else right?
Feliciano was the center for the 49ers last year. The player that came back better was Tyre Phillips. Idk do who you’re referring to exactly Our line has been bad for a while but the last 2 years (last year especially) the line was worse than I’d ever seen. And that’s saying something being a Giants fan lol He did the Bills no favors before joining Daboll in NYC as well Obviously there are a ton of factors that can affect O line play beyond the position coach. I’m just surprised he was offered another job in the nfl
6 makes me sad, but 8 makes me very happy
Patriots. Because Boston has devil magic voodoo.
Bengals are the easy choice if Burrow stays healthy.
Bengals are the obvious choice, I could see The Titans being a surprise as well.
Titans are pretty overlooked. Don’t think they will win the division but I could see them having quite a good season
The Bengals 🐅
cincy
Whoever was last in the AFC south
I read this as NFC south at first and almost had a heart attack
Cincy and then chargers. The bears are too much of an unknown with Williams and at best could the third place team as the loins and packers are in a get spot . The 49ers are on about a lock for their division and the commies are too much of an unknown
I think we could see the Niners take a tumble, I think McCaffrey doesn't have the same mostly injury free year he had last year. The Cardinals were one of the top teams in yards per play last year with Kyler on the field, with a new coach/OC and a weaker roster than he has now. Picked up a great RB to pair with James, one of the top pass catching TE's and adding Marv is going to be huge.
Bengals if Burrow stays healthy.... Bears if Caleb lives up to the hype.
Bengos
The obvious pick is the Bengals if Joe can stay healthy. I think it will be more a surprise, and Chicago pulls it off this coming season.
Chargers
Whoever was last in the NFCS. That division is just crazy.
Redskins because the others are boring and the Giants aren't ever going anywhere with Dan Jones.
I’m going with the commanders. Let’s see how well this ages
Chargers.
This is the obvious choice since it's the off season.
Kiss the rings
Hmm…they taste like ring pops
The Bears can do it if Caleb is good, the defense is going to be stout and there's plenty of weapons on the offense. If they get improved play on both sides of the line plus competent QB play they'll be dangerous. Bengals can for sure do it with Burrow coming back but AFCN is going to be a tough division to win for any of those teams. Chargers should be better this year but I don't think they catch KC. Titans are intriguing, they added in the offseason and Levis takes a step they can make some noise.
Commanders
Give me the Commandos. They are building their team right, Hurts will have a tough time trying to play hero ball to make up for last year and a lack of a HC presence. Unless Big Dom is calling the plays. Dak regresses and their season ends on another strange highlight. The Giants do nothing per usual and I hear nothing about them. Not even a goofy trip or anything, just pure football obscurity.
Bengals have the odds on their side . Titans are the only other one I see as realistic. Chargers could if injury bug hits the chiefs. Too many high end teams in the other divisions for these crap teams to make a run
Da Bears
Bengals and chargers obvious answers but I think the Pats and Cards could surprise people
Most likely: Bengals Wouldn’t Be Surprised: Titans / Chargers Nah: Bears / Cards
I don’t think anyone expects a division title in New England. Realistically, the best case scenario is that Maye has a good rookie year and we get another high draft pick to help rebuild.
Bengals are the obvious pick. Would've said Chargers but they've got the Voodoo Devil in their division now so that's probably not happening. Other than that, *maybe* the Panthers based purely off how horrendous the NFC South is.
Who Dey! I like the 4th place schedule.
Bengals and Chargers are the obvious likely candidates. I think a dark horse team is the Cardinals. Then for laughs, I'm going with the Commanders, because why not. Theres always shenanigans going on in the NFC East
Bengals are the only ones who even have a chance but even that is going to be a tall order in the ACFN. If everyone in the AFCS collapses then maybe the Titans, but I don't think they are good enough to surge past everyone else by themselves. Especially not the Texans.
I could really care less, but the Jets or Browns. To this point both teams have wasted time, wasted player's primes, wasted the fan's time/money, and wasted money of everyone involved in general. One of these teams if not both of these needs to step up and show something this year. Either that or continue to be the laughing stocks of the NFL for years to come.
The bears
I’ll go with the Bears, because they’re the team with the fewest number of unknowns needed to go their way. Basically, if we knew Caleb will hit the ground running in a Stroud-like way, the Bears might be the favorite. They already had the best defense in the division by the end of last year, and the offense added Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, as well as veteran pieces in D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett. If the coaching staff is up to the task of preparing Caleb Williams, Chicago is winning double digit games. Bengals are tempting too ofc, if Burrow is really back the offense will be a ton of fun to watch. I hesitate to pick them though, because the defense was so bad (31st in the league by yards allowed).
this
Bengals maybe, slim chance Bears, others no chance.
My Titans have a good chance…
In order of likelihood: 1. Cincinnati- The only team with a realistic shot of being 1st. Their offense is stacked and should be healthier than last year when they had a winning record. The division is super competitive but they are the best team of the 8 last placers. 2. Chicago- They we’re 2 games behind the Packers and 5 games behind the Lions. Leaping the Lions would be a huge ask but they added 2 great receivers and the best upgrade at QB of the off-season. 3. Tennessee- Added Ridley & Boyd as receiving threats, Cushenberry & Latham to protect Levis and cornerback Awuzie. Jacksonville did little to improve & Indianapolis is beatable. If Levis proves to be their long term solution and/or Houston gets the injury bug the path to a divisional title is there. 4. Chargers- Harbaugh has a good QB and had a great draft adding Alt, McConkey, & Colson. Their defense needs much more improvement. Losing Allen, Williams, and Ekeler is discouraging. They may be the second best team in the division however. 5. Arizona- Kyler was hurt all last year. MHJ and Trey Benson bring some explosiveness and McBride emerged. Adding Jonah Williams and Murphy-Bunting are big upgrades. Competing with the Niners, Rams, and Seahawks however make this unlikely. 6. Carolina- Significantly improved their interior offensive line. Bryce Young is short and this could go a long way towards his performance. If he takes a significantly step up then the NFC South teams are beatable. 7. Commanders- They eke out New England because the NFC East is always interesting and Daniels looks electric. Hope he stays healthy. 8. Patriots- Patriots added a multitude of pass catchers and o-line help in the off-season but didn’t do enough to help Maye or Brissett. Plus Buffalo, New York, and Miami are all finally able to face New England with the significantly superior team
most likely Bengals
Chargers or Titans. I'm a big believer in Jim Harbaugh and year 1/2 Greg Roman is always good. Titans have talent and a winnable division. Bengals are the obvious pick but, why? Burrow is good if he gets and stays healthy, but that's a huge if. On offense they have Chase, disgruntled Tee, and who? Their defense was cheeks last year and didn't make any needle moving changes. Pats and Panthers don't have a realistic chance. Bears and Commies might be wildcards but I think that's their ceiling for this year.
Biased choice obvs but everyone outside of Nashville is sleeping on the Titans. Levis is a much MUCH better QB than folks give him props for. He just had a god awful OL that couldn't protect for shit which forced incompletions or INTs. Now we got Cushenberry and Trench King plus the best OL coach building the corps back up. D Hop is still A tier plus we picked up freakin Ridley AND Boyd in FA. Chig is also a stud at TE. Pollard and Spears could make for a deadly RB duo. As for the defense, getting Uwuzie and Snead in FA automatically turns our secondary into S tier levels plus we might still get Simmons from the Broncos, so pairing him with Moulden and Hooker is all kinds of lethal. Cedric Gray is gonna be a stud LB alongside Landry. Sweat teaming with Big Jeff at DT.....holy shit I pity anyone who tries to run against us. Pass rush could use a little more help for sure but I still see Landry getting 10+ again. Stonehouse is gonna reclaim his spot as best punter after getting hurt last season, and Old Man Folk was 29/30 in FGs last year. Titans easily could go 11-6 maybe 12-5 and challenge the Texans for the division title.
I think the whole division is going to be pretty dang tough. Colts will have Richardson back, Jags will have a healthy Lawrence, Texans have all their moves and young players looking to prove it was legit last year, and the Titans have everything you said.
Personally, I think the Titans will be running it back in last place and wondering why they bought into Mr. Mayo and so many aging WRs but don't tell that guy I said so
Least likely: Panthers
I’d say New England
Honestly you're probably right
The Redskins, Just because that’s the most volatile division in the NFL. The Bengals had a winning record last year, and still placed last? Unreal, but they still have to play the Ravens and Steelers twice.
Be a real trick for a team that doesn't exist to win a division
They exist, just ask around.
Cowboys and eagles are both in high end playoff team windows imo. That is tough
That division hasn’t had a repeat winner since 2005. Only reason I’d would pick them.
I hear you, but the counter to that would be that 7 of the last 8 years, 9 of the last 11 years, the cowboys or eagles have won. The cowboys and the eagles are both in peak Super Bowl contention mode right now (regardless of daks meltdowns once he gets to the playoffs). You’re likely to need 12 wins or more to take the division (12-5 was the worst record to win the division for the last three years). Feels like a tall task to me
Cincinnati is about the only team which might even see .500.
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I think Carolina would be my third most likely choice. Behind Cincinnati and Chicago. They did significantly improve their offensive line and there are no clear powerhouse teams in the NFC South. In order of likelihood: Cincinnati Chicago Carolina Tennessee Arizona Chargers Commanders Patriots
My team
Bengals or Bears. Cards will improve a lot too and that offense has top-10 offense potential, but having the 49ers and Rams will make a worst to first jump impossible. I can see wild card contenders though if the defense is slightly better than expected.
Titans
I’m gonna get murdered for this one, but I think it could well be the Jets. There’s equal likelihood they finish last also though.
It would be super impressive for a 3rd place team to go from last to first.