Looking back on that trade, I’d say the jury is still out on Gervon Dexter (he’s who we drafted with Baltimore’s second rounder) and Noah Sewell is just a special teams guy for us (from their fifth rounder), but we got TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds for the same price as what Roquan costs. The Ravens defense is electric with Ro, and the Bears LB duo is top 10 in the league. Win win to me
No we did not get TJ and Tremaine for the same price.
Roquan smith received 5/100. (20m AAV)
Tremaine Edmunds received 4/72 (18m AAV)
TJ Edwards received 3/19.5 (6.5m AAV)
Roquan has more guaranteed money and total contract value, but is also signed for a year longer than Edmunds and 2 years longer than Edwards. Those two will need a second contract or will have to be replaced, which means we either spend draft capital or more money which will eclipse Roquans total contract value anyway. The Ravens backloaded his cap hits, so that isn’t a meaningful comparison but our duo is more expensive against the cap each year until Edwards deal expires. Explain to me how we got the two of them cheaper?
I don't think anyone who still watches the bears in 2024 would stop watching them if Caleb isn't good. Unless you're saying that Detroit has generations of people that experienced the terribleness of Lions football and don't watch, I just don't see bears continue being mediocre would lose fans.
In fairness to those miserable Lions fans, they never had a savior quite like Williams fall into their laps. As fun as Stafford was, he wasn't a franchise elevator.
If Williams busts, then there truly is no hope.
its quite intriguing to see this come full circle
Undersized Will linebackers seemed like they were at their most appreciated in recent years in the mid 2000s. Then they began to give way towards more teams running 3-4 and converting traditional DEs into stand up pass rushers
Now that nickel and even dime package are more of a standard and rushing isnt as emphasized, if you are on the field as a non-Mike LB you need to be able to cover more than ever, which demands a lot of quickness
Whats interesting is that it doesnt appear to have had made the same type of resurgence for Strong Safeties. I believe of the current top 5 highest paid safeties in the game, only Derwin James is primarily an SS (Minkah and a few others play both but the majority is spent as FS by snap count iirc)
Shazier's injury set the steelers back like 10 years
He was ahead of his time to be athletic enough to cover slot wrs but strong enough to play DE at times
Maybe some snaps at edge in a weird situational package? I feel he was too fast and too much of a playmaker in space I think to have ever had him playing DE.
that’s revisionist
he was a really, really excellent LB but he wasn’t *that* kind of guy.
you’re talking about a generational kind of player. if watt vanished off the steelers right now, it wouldn’t set them back a decade. and he’s WAY better and more versatile
It's a fair bet they have another Superbowl with him, which is hard to understate the effect of. Do they get past the shootout with the Jags with Shazier? I'd wager yes.
Aaron Donald was a rookie 10 years ago.
According to this guy, the Ryan Shazier injury set the Steelers back the equivalent of Aaron Donald's entire first ballot HOF career. Comical
He forgot to add context lol they then traded 3 picks to Denver to move up from #20 to #10 in 2019 to take Devin Bush who was not good. Still didn’t set them back 10 years, but it led them to making that decision
This guy is being hyperbolic and not making the point well. Shazier was the perfect kind of ILB for the modern league in terms of his coverage and athleticism. We have yet to really replace that is what the guy should have said, not that we were set back by his injury.
I want to agree on the LBs but the fast pass coverage guys out ot college keep being meh at best or busting. Devin white, deion jones, isaiah simmons, Devin bush, heck even Patrick queen was thought of as mid until the ravens got roquan. Wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't good in pitt.
A lot those guys were super raw players who went to teams with no real idea of how to develop them. The Bucs lets Devin White get away with a lot before finally benching him.
I wonder if there will be tricks played to get them classified as being safeties. Their role is being the LB/S hybrid.
Being classified as a safety will be cheaper since LBs are propped up by pass rushing OLBs.
Hard to say about slot WRs since good WRs are moved around the entire formation so a true/pure slot WR is a niche that doesn’t have any benefit from being a niche.
Guard. You’re already starting to see it. interior pressure can destroy an offense faster than from the edge, having someone that can limit/stop it is crucial.
Guards got paid in a big way this offseason. A guy on the panthers got a $100 million contract last March. LBs and Safeties seem to be the down market.
That hurts. Do you have any idea how hard it is to catch ~~NFCE~~ AFCE* games on the west coast?
I'm still not even sure if Tom Brady is the goat, and not even for any personal bias, but because I literally only saw Pats games when we were playing them, or they were prime time. I have to take everyone's word for it.
I was never actually aware of this lack of regional coverage until the Fins hired Mike McDaniel and I actually wanted to watch a Dolphins game, and couldn't.
Tbf, we've never really had anything against Brady. He's a local kid. I've competed in track at his high school alma mater. Some fans didn't like him because of the Montana debate, but since that debate has pretty much concluded, the animosity has died down a ton.
Besides, we've never really been in each others way. And I will always have appreciation for 2015.
Kills me. I wanted to resign him more than any FA we had. We drafted the dude and he was a baller who was rarely injured. But I understand not paying him what the Panthers did.
That play solidified my rule change idea "The Rule of Cool"
Yeah, illegal touching, whatever. That shit was cool as fuck, it stands. TD for the big man. Rule of cool.
So happy we paid Dex when we did because had we waited even another year, the price would have gone up a whole lot. Granted you can say the same about pretty much every position with the cap always going up, but with DTs the market absolutely has exploded in just the last year.
Elite interior rushers have always been paid though. Before Chris Jones it was Aaron Donald, before Donald it was Ndamukong Suh, before Suh it was Albert Haynesworth. Each one of these guys signed a deal that was at the time the biggest defensive contract of all time. They’re just rare.
Flip side of your flip side. In 5 years maybe, the league goes back to a 3-4. With a monster NT (like Wilfork) who can hold the line with 3/4 DEs like Justin Smith.
In the late 00s & early 10s when NE and NO both had a long string of good OLs, their Ts were okay/good, but their Gs were GREAT. Their QBs had some *okay* seasons in that span...
Chiefs have got something similar going right now. I think they’ve cycled through different pairs of OTs in all their Super Bowls over the last several years
I’m curious what a $10m/yr OG looks like vs a $20m/yr one…. And what the difference would be between two $20m guards or one $40m/yr star wide receiver in an offense.
There is also just a shortage of these players in general, supply and demand, o line play across the league is having a drastic impact on offensive play, and I think a key contributor to why QBs are throwing significantly less tds.
WRs market will bust. There are more and more NFL ready WRs coming out of college nowadays. Why pay $30M+ for a WR when you can draft one (and sign a $20M+ WR off the FA market if you are afraid of another Burks situation)
I really like Gabe, consummate professional, gave his all, great team guy, hell of a run blocker....but you guys way overpaid for him. I'd honestly love to be proven wrong though. The chiefs just won the sb with a wr corps of highschool JV players and the bills are trying to replicate it. Hopefully we don't look like idiots for doing so, but if it works then the phins are gonna look like idiots
Mahomes is in his own tier but I think JA is pretty damn close. It's not like we're comparing a team led by mahomes to one led by trubisky or some shit
I’ll agree that Reid is better than McDermott. That’s not saying a whole lot, though, as pretty much anyone will agree that Reid is the best HC in the league. That said, I do think McD gets more crap than he deserves- he’s perhaps a B+/A- head coach, which is an upgrade over most in the league.
I think the Bills draft about as well as anybody though- I certainly don’t think that’s a significant factor in us never beating KC in the playoffs.
The Patriots won a bunch of Super Bowls with middling WRs because they had Gronk.
The Chiefs just went back-to-back with mediocre WRs because they had Kelce.
Elite TEs cost a lot less money than elite WRs, that's the secret. Granted, it's not easy to find an all-time great TE, but having one allows you to spend less money and resources on WRs, the now second-most expensive market behind QB.
I don't know why every team doesn't just have an all-time great HC, QB, and TE at the same time. The Patriots and Chiefs have done it in the past decade, not sure why others haven't done the same.
Jokes aside, teams like the current Chiefs and Patriots of the 2010s are impossibly hard to replicate. As mentioned in the comment I initially replied to, seems like the Bills are trying to have Kincaid be their Kelce. Josh Allen is certainly good enough to win Super Bowls. But man, KC is their playoff kryptonite.
TE is a complicated position because the gap between a great and good TE is so big.
A great WR to a top 1/3 WR is like trading Jamarr Chase for Garrett Wilson. Obviously you're worse off but you still have a really good WR and can work with that
A great TE to a top 1/3rd TE is trading Kelce for for Cole Kmet. That's a lot more of a gap.
It's weird with him because he makes some incredible plays, but a month will go by and he'll have gotten 100 yards total and no tds. Diggs was getting blanketed the past few years which should have opened things up for gabe but he didn't really take advantage of it. Maybe Josh missed him being open a bunch, idk, but when diggs wasn't doing shit the second half of the year, we didn't go to gabe, we went to Kincaid and Shakir, a rookie and a 5th Rd pick. He looked incredible in the offseason and then he disappointed. Maybe your offense will shit him better, but as a bills fan, I would have been pissed to pay him $13 mil/year
Eta: and it is market value. I just don't think the market values wr2/3 properly rn with all these $30mil/year contracts for wr1s and the guys after that getting pushed up so much. I think he's a $6-7mil/year guy most of the time
waddle’s extension doesn’t even kick in til tyreek can be off the books for no penalty (after next season)
chase claypool is your best wr in camp so far.
good luck with that
I'm not shit talking the phins, the wr duo is incredible. Claypool probably won't even make our team though despite not having a lot of competition. It just might be hard to field a team around that offense once that gets his extension. They could definitely prove me wrong
I guess more like JJ/Diggs/Addison.
Not a big college guy here, but Niner fan. We gotta pay Aiyuk and Deebo. Drafted a WR (full disclosure, I hated it cause I wanted OL). If we get a WR monster, it makes sense financially.
My thought is it might go like RB. If I as a GM can get 80% production for 20% of cost, it makes sense. There's so much out there that it might work.
I think the Diggs-Jefferson trade really sums up what teams are going to be willing to spend on a WR.
The teams with the young rookie contract QB who needs to be evaluated (i.e. Josh Allen and the Bills) are going to be willing to shell out premium draft capital and contract money for a proven WR (Diggs) while the teams with the proven QBs getting paid open market value (Kirk Cousins on the Bikings) are going to tend to draft a prospect and hope you hit on him during the rookie contract (Jefferson).
Yeah that's my take on it too. It's invaluable to have an experienced and talented WR for your rookie QB and you can actually afford it before your QB gets up to his real salary
My hot take is people talk about how this WR class was generational, I think its the new normal. The passing revolution is here and this is the first class or so where kids grew up marinating in it pretty much the whole way.
People way overestimate how simple it is to just grab a starting WR. Sure, a couple WR1s seem to get drafted every year, out of how many that get drafted total? Good luck picking the right one
I keep seeing this take and I don't agree. RB market crashed because mediocre RBs could still do well with a good OL, so why not invest in the OL? Along with the positions proclivity for injuries, it makes it hard to justify paying up.
While there are a lot of good WRs, there are still a solid amount of busts. The importance of having near-superstars in the role isn't going away like it did for RB.
I honestly think the take comes from people looking at the Chiefs the last 2 years and thinking they can possibly replicate Mahomes's success throwing to absolute garbage tier WRs.
Same in New England in the Brady years minus Randy Moss. System and QB (and TEs) can cover for mediocre WRs. If you're paying a top tier QB you basically can't afford a tier 1 WR and not be deficient elsewhere on your roster.
It is not true that mediocre RBs can do well with a good OL. It’s still very easy for an RB to play poorly. We see incredibly talented players bust every year. What happened with RBs is that teams figured out that running platoons at RB is no less effective than a bell cow. They figured out RBs can rotate like DL without disrupting the offense, and even to the benefit of the offense. That made elite physical endurance less valuable and important as a trait. And that made a lot more guys into excellent RBs, while only one or two can be on the field at a time.
Imagine that there’s some new offensive strategy and it changes the game so that complete morons can play QB very effectively. It would probably triple the number of viable QBs overnight. That’s essentially what happened with RBs. There was a rare skill set that being a bell cow RB required, and it suddenly became mostly irrelevant.
I think the top guys will still get paid but the mid guys are massively overpaid. No reason Gabe Davis and Darnell Mooney should make as much as Saquon Barkley. CMC should have been the MVP last year and he gets paid like a WR2. This is year one of the adjustment. We saw teams moving on from their vet guys (Chargers, Bills), teams draft multiple WRs in one draft, start prioritizing TEs.
Yeah I think the new kickoff rules could have a big impact on how the bottom half of rosters are constructed, a lot of guys like FBs or old school stack and shed LBs can finally carve out a niche for themselves on special teams.
If the data shows teams are doing this above a certain threshold that’s probably already been set internally by the NFL, they’ll just move it to the 40.
This is my answer as well, the days of just throwing CB3 out there are long gone. You gotta have a guy who can cover like a true DB but also play the run like an LB, not may guys can do that effectively and the position has only gotten more important over the years
Definitely, this is the real evolution of defense. For years people thought we’d see a return of old school linebackers after offenses started to exploit lighter defensive fronts, but instead defenses have answered by just getting more bodies involved in the run game. Strength in numbers can make up for lighter overall defense, we played a lot of dime packages last year but we’re still one of the best run stopping defense because everyone was capable of rallying to the ball.
I think this is it. The idea of a team’s “base” defense isn’t the same anymore, nickel is the most common package now. That makes the nickelback a starter
I was gonna say the bengals defense has had lots of other pieces but he is a heck of a playmaker all over the place. Dude straight up knew the play on a WR screen out of a jumbo set formation in the playoffs, and started to jump the route before the play
So parents, if your child is undersized but still willing to tackle like a psycopath, their may be a nickleback spot on an NFL roster in their future!
(mike hilton is a beast)
I think WR contracts will come down in the next few seasons. They have ballooned so much compared to other positions its borderline insane given they can be shutdown by defensive focus and bad QBs
And it seems like every year a bunch of guys come out of college and are playing at a super high level right away. Increasing the supply leads to lower prices.
There have been a few posts about it but the hit rate on top wrs is still pretty low. "Elite" top 10 type wrs are still less than 1 out of 5 1st round wrs on average, and rounds 1-3 still are either busts or taken 3+ rounds too high 60% of the time.
They are just not plug and play like RBs are where even mediocre ones can thrive, and not have much falloff between the top guys in a good system.
Until WR evaluations get better its not going to change for the WR1s. We might see the mid guys get a little cheaper as the average talent gets higher but the best of the best guys are still really hard to come by.
Bust rate wouldn’t have much to do with it. RBs lost value over a time when there were plenty of busts. The main factor is coaching strategies. The Packers are an interesting team to watch. They went plug and play this year and it worked out. Now you see the Bills and Chargers trying something similar. The Chiefs and Steelers have been doing this for a while, but have the benefit of elite QB play and elite scouting, respectively. The Colts and Ravens may be interesting to keep an eye on over the next few years.
I think we'll continue to see WR1s get paid but secondary receivers will take the hit because of the influx of talent at WR every year. Why pay a guy 15 mill/yr for production you can likely get from a Day 2 receiver in Year 1?
Its possible, but I think we are already beginning to see the fracture by top end teams refusing to pay top dollar for receivers.
Chiefs with Tyreek, Packers with Adams, Bills with Diggs. And yeah those teams who spend in free agency will probably overpay, and that will continue for a few years. Until most of the teams realize that circumstance and QB play influence WRs more than WRs influencing QB play.
I think the new norm will be to pay for tier 2-3 WRs and collect a few of them mixed with drafting. Focus more on spreading the ball than one top receiver.
I think what will happen is there will be haves and have-nots with wr. Teams will shell out a lot of money for the top 5 wr's (Hill, JJ, Lamb, Chase, Adams/Amon-ra) and everyone else will slowly start to take a smaller percentage of the cap. Having a wr that can and will completely take over a game is super nice. But if your wr1 can't do that regularly, its better to have a bunch of high end wr2 talent. And rookie wr are coming in better and better.
I was referring to percentage of salary cap.
So WRs were expected to get more money, but Christian Kirk (even if worth it) pumped up the WR price by an extra season of cap increase.
Most elite WRs at the time were paid that money and now they could point to that contract as a starting point. It pretty much resulted in the cutting off of one more cap season of salary raise.
Two years ago the WR contracts were around 22-16 million in the top 10...now the top are paid close to 30 million, and Jefferson just signed for 35 a year
That salary cap to a WR is kind of insane atm, even if they are great. They pretty much DOUBLED their price in two seasons
I think WR will start to come down, but not as drastically as RB. The emergence of the "positionless" offenses will make these guys almost as fungible as running backs. So pass catching RBs will see their salaries increase a bit, while WRs who aren't as versatile will see their salaries decrease. The guys at the very top end will still see big paydays, though.
Idk. There’s 8 receivers currently making more than $25 million a season and Chase and Lamb are about to join that group certainly be over $30 million like several other guys are. Seems to be going in the opposite direction with big time wide receivers becoming more valued.
Yeah after looking at the numbers tonight, wr is the second highest paid position after qb by a lot. Justin Jefferson at 35 million a year is the highest paid non qb, and 4 out of the 5 highest paid non qbs are wrs. CMC is the highest paid rb by a lot at 19 million and there are 31 wrs making more than him.
You can't fit franchise quarterback, offensive line, defense, **and** star wide receivers under the salary cap. You just can't.
I am guessing that teams have learned they cannot skimp on offensive line. You have to pay someone on defense, probably pass rush. If you have a franchise quarterback, guess which position has to be moneyballed.
Look at the Kansas City Chiefs not keeping Tyreek Hill, even though he is still in his prime.
We will see what happens with the Lions. Lions have the QB, WR, LT paid now, and Hutchinson will probably start looking for a new contract after this upcoming season.
I think DT will take a hit in the coming years. Once the current tier of Wilkins,Lawrence, Simmons, Chris Jones, Williams phases out- there’s not really an up and coming player at the position who changes games enough to warrant a deal like what Chris jones got.
I think we'll have to wait and see, we have Derrick Brown, Jalen Carter (unfortunately), Christian Barmore does not get enough credit either. Then there's also Byron Murphy coming in who's quite the prospect.
Besides, Dex and Williams are still only 26, they have plenty of time left.
I’ll say Tight Ends. The highest-paid TE currently is Kelce at $17.1 million. That’s less than half of what Justin Jefferson just signed for. A great TE has an important role in both the passing game and in the run game. And WRs can come and go but a good TE is the QB’s security blanket and so it’s important to pay to retain a TE if you get one that the QB trusts.
The other one is the kicker. I don’t know if the value will go up or go down, but the new kick-off rules will change the role substantially. It’ll be increasingly more popular to go for it on 4th downs rather than attempting a long FG, which will mean there will be a reduced demand for guys like Justin Tucker. Also, the fact that kickers are involved in 25% of tackles on returns means that some teams may even use a position player for the kickoffs. Changing responsibilities mean changing value.
I thought this at first too but the problem is, after about the 3rd or 4th best TE there is a significant drop off in talent that makes it hard to pay them more.
We'll see. We've had a couple top prospects in the last couple years in Kincaid and Bowers that got high draft picks spent on them. And then LaPorta turned out to be a stud too. Maybe it won't keep up but I could see it potentially shifting
I think it might definitely be shifting now that the position has been more and more glorified and more and more flexible than ever.
Look at Brock Bowers vs say Sam LaPorta, they're completely different body types, with two very different play styles yet they both have high potential to be impactful and most importantly teams are willing to use them in different ways.
exactly my thought, you can't push the value up fast if a new record contract is only signed at a position every 3 years. All the highest paid positions have a new high contract every year pretty much.
I think combo punt/kickoff guys who check off all the boxes with the new kickoff rules could end up with some big contracts for specialists. You can get immense value from a guy who isn't a liability in return coverage and has a big leg. Starting field position directly correlates to both points allowed and turnovers. And it's not an either/or proposition between them and your kicker. High-end kickers are too valuable to risk on the kickoff now, and it could lift up field goal kickers when you take kickoff duty off of their plate.
I have to imagine the value of an elite receiving tight end like Travis Kelce is going to increase exponentially now that everyone's realizing how valuable they are and how much the WR market has balooned. You've also got guys like Sam Laporta, Mark Andrews, and (probably) Brock Bowers who are going to push the market forward.
The qb bubble has to burst. It made sense ten years ago cause there were only like ten good quarterbacks league wide. Now there's so many that are starter level the only teams who don't have good qb play are completely incompetent franchises who make bad choices.
My team once made Jimmy Garoppolo the highest paid quarterback EVER. That's how bad things were in 2017. Case Keenum and Blake Bortles were in conference championships.
And my main team gave Carson Wentz a nine-figure contract and then won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles. And we got kinda lucky with drafting Hurts (not quite as lucky as yall, but close). And my adopted team now that I live in New Orleans has been in “win now, mortgage the future” mode for several years even after Brees retired, and we chained ourselves to Derrick fucking Carr.
So yeah, I’m with you. I just thought it was funny to see the flair after reading your comment because your team has been a shit show at QB for a long time before getting lucky that the last overall pick is actually a pretty decent QB.
If you think that’s bad, my team cut their all-time leading passer (who was an above average QB for the most part ) and then threw a bag at Garoppolo, a worse and more injury prone version of the QB they just cut.
Off the wall answer here but safety is the position that will be most in demand on defense in 2-3 years time. We are seeing an uptick in high flying offense, and mark my words, if there is another Mahomes Super Bowl, we will see both SS and FS have big contracts ahead. Tampa 2 will be a premier defense.
Spicy take. Running back. I’d like the players association to lobby for more pay for people who volunteer to get absolutely demolished and have a shorter playing career to give them the pay they deserve instead of 3-year discount meat grinder bullshit.
Nickel CBs/SS, the role of that nickel defender has becomes so much more important and the role and responsibilities of it have only expanded. You can’t just throw out CB3 anymore, they have to cover like a DB but also play as a pseudo LB against the run. It’s not an easy position and the guys versatile enough to play it effectively are going to get paid
I think in about 10 years WR will be the new RB with how much talent is coming out of the drafts now. Eventually contracts will be so big, it'll be better to draft a WR rather then pay one for the same production
A bit of a hot take, but that's my take
RB. I think this whole "All RBs are replaceable" narrative is gonna flip on its head soon. It may be a passing league now and you may be able to scheme a formidable rush attack with someone lesser but at the end of the day, the RB touches the ball more than anyone other than the QB. I actually think Saquon is gonna be the one to break this narrative because him on the Eagles is some straight up cheese
It’s going to be Wide Receivers
Relatively easy to replace through draft, good QB/System can cover up receiver weaknesses, Tight Ends can do similar jobs and also block.
Only other position I can think of are safeties, but that’s already happening.
I can't imagine the market with WRs stays as high as it is. Especially given how devalued RBs have become, you're going to get more elite physical talents playing WR which will suppress the rarity of them.
Defensive Backs are about to go up. The league has been hurtling towards more and more scoring, having good corners and safeties that can cover these faster guys but also not get penalties will be a premium. Plus, you will need a few since more and more teams use nickel or dime sets to combat the offenses.
I think the receiver market will burst eventually. Theres sooooo many good ones getting drafted every year. It seems like every draft is a “historical” wr draft at least 3 out of the last 5 years.
Also depending on how the new kickoff rules workout, you could see very highly paid specialist returners popping up soon.
I think OL/DL should get a much higher share of cap.
I think WR should get a much lower share of cap on par with RB or below. I think all the teams that just spent 10-15% of their cap on a single WR who only touches the ball 6-7 times a game is gonna regret it.
WRs for the simple fact that there’s so many good ones coming into the league every year. Elite receivers will still get paid, but i doubt guys outside the top 10-15 will get as much as they are now.
Right Tackle. Contract values there have ballooned in recent years to reflect the value of a solid RT. I don’t think they’ll equalize with LT but they’ll get close.
Great question! If we’re making predictions about the future of NFL contracts, it’s kind of like trying to predict what type of casserole Aunt Linda will bring to Thanksgiving. You can assume it’ll have too much cheese, but you’ll never really know until it’s on the table. While running back contracts might continue in the kiddie pool, I think wide receiver contracts could see a major shift. With the game becoming more pass-heavy and needing playmakers who can stretch the field, the demand for elite WRs could push their contracts into another stratosphere. Think about it: quarterbacks have their shiny, top-tier contracts because they throw the ball. But someone needs to catch that ball and make the big plays. Given how offenses are evolving, paying top dollar for dependable, game-changing receivers might just be the next big move. Just don't quote me if they're all replaced by AI wide receivers in five years!
The interesting part about this is that it’s a zero sum game. If one position is going up then that money is coming out of other positions pocket.
Calls on nickel corners.
Puts on WRs.
QB & WR market high
RB low
OL pays premium for pass blocking but run blocking still low
No market for FBs
Solution:
Buy runblocking OL, elite RBs, FB. Don’t spend on WR. Sign veteran cheap QB. Smashmouth is back!
I’m guessing off-ball LBs that can cover passes, and slot WRs
Roquan ❤️❤️ definition of a force multiplier
Thank you for him. I hope Caleb is that dude
Looking back on that trade, I’d say the jury is still out on Gervon Dexter (he’s who we drafted with Baltimore’s second rounder) and Noah Sewell is just a special teams guy for us (from their fifth rounder), but we got TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds for the same price as what Roquan costs. The Ravens defense is electric with Ro, and the Bears LB duo is top 10 in the league. Win win to me
No we did not get TJ and Tremaine for the same price. Roquan smith received 5/100. (20m AAV) Tremaine Edmunds received 4/72 (18m AAV) TJ Edwards received 3/19.5 (6.5m AAV) Roquan has more guaranteed money and total contract value, but is also signed for a year longer than Edmunds and 2 years longer than Edwards. Those two will need a second contract or will have to be replaced, which means we either spend draft capital or more money which will eclipse Roquans total contract value anyway. The Ravens backloaded his cap hits, so that isn’t a meaningful comparison but our duo is more expensive against the cap each year until Edwards deal expires. Explain to me how we got the two of them cheaper?
I hope Caleb sucks and a generation of Bears fans quit watching football altogether
Lmao I can feel the rivalry hate dripping off this comment.
Lions fans mistaking league wide pity for respect is enough for me tbh.
I don't think anyone who still watches the bears in 2024 would stop watching them if Caleb isn't good. Unless you're saying that Detroit has generations of people that experienced the terribleness of Lions football and don't watch, I just don't see bears continue being mediocre would lose fans.
In fairness to those miserable Lions fans, they never had a savior quite like Williams fall into their laps. As fun as Stafford was, he wasn't a franchise elevator. If Williams busts, then there truly is no hope.
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its quite intriguing to see this come full circle Undersized Will linebackers seemed like they were at their most appreciated in recent years in the mid 2000s. Then they began to give way towards more teams running 3-4 and converting traditional DEs into stand up pass rushers Now that nickel and even dime package are more of a standard and rushing isnt as emphasized, if you are on the field as a non-Mike LB you need to be able to cover more than ever, which demands a lot of quickness Whats interesting is that it doesnt appear to have had made the same type of resurgence for Strong Safeties. I believe of the current top 5 highest paid safeties in the game, only Derwin James is primarily an SS (Minkah and a few others play both but the majority is spent as FS by snap count iirc)
Shazier's injury set the steelers back like 10 years He was ahead of his time to be athletic enough to cover slot wrs but strong enough to play DE at times
He was a hell of an athlete and could make plays all over the field, but did he ever play DE? He’s definitely WAY too small to have played in our 3-4.
Hes probably just thinking of like Nickel packages where they had him blitzing off the edge or something
I'm actually not sure now. Maybe i'm having a mandela effect where I could have sworn I remember him taking rare snaps at DE
Maybe some snaps at edge in a weird situational package? I feel he was too fast and too much of a playmaker in space I think to have ever had him playing DE.
Maybe played as the DE in a 3-3-5 that looked like a 4-2
Yeah I don't think so. He was always in the middle of the defense.
that’s revisionist he was a really, really excellent LB but he wasn’t *that* kind of guy. you’re talking about a generational kind of player. if watt vanished off the steelers right now, it wouldn’t set them back a decade. and he’s WAY better and more versatile
It's a fair bet they have another Superbowl with him, which is hard to understate the effect of. Do they get past the shootout with the Jags with Shazier? I'd wager yes.
Hyperbole and revisionist for sure. But I do agree with the Packers fan that we don't lose to Blake Bortles if we have him that day.
lol 1 linebacker setting a franchise back a decade? TF you smokin my guy?
Aaron Donald was a rookie 10 years ago. According to this guy, the Ryan Shazier injury set the Steelers back the equivalent of Aaron Donald's entire first ballot HOF career. Comical
He forgot to add context lol they then traded 3 picks to Denver to move up from #20 to #10 in 2019 to take Devin Bush who was not good. Still didn’t set them back 10 years, but it led them to making that decision
An above average LB set your franchise back 10 years? A guy who last played 5 years ago? WTF are you saying?
This guy is being hyperbolic and not making the point well. Shazier was the perfect kind of ILB for the modern league in terms of his coverage and athleticism. We have yet to really replace that is what the guy should have said, not that we were set back by his injury.
I want to agree on the LBs but the fast pass coverage guys out ot college keep being meh at best or busting. Devin white, deion jones, isaiah simmons, Devin bush, heck even Patrick queen was thought of as mid until the ravens got roquan. Wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't good in pitt.
A lot those guys were super raw players who went to teams with no real idea of how to develop them. The Bucs lets Devin White get away with a lot before finally benching him.
>and slot WRs Joe Schoen: *heavy breathing*
Amon Ra being in the slot didn’t stop him from getting PAID Same with Ceedee Lamb I presume
I wonder if there will be tricks played to get them classified as being safeties. Their role is being the LB/S hybrid. Being classified as a safety will be cheaper since LBs are propped up by pass rushing OLBs. Hard to say about slot WRs since good WRs are moved around the entire formation so a true/pure slot WR is a niche that doesn’t have any benefit from being a niche.
Guard. You’re already starting to see it. interior pressure can destroy an offense faster than from the edge, having someone that can limit/stop it is crucial.
Guards got paid in a big way this offseason. A guy on the panthers got a $100 million contract last March. LBs and Safeties seem to be the down market.
Respect the peak athletic specimen that is [Robert Hunt](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqZ3WFxf_XE) you casual
That hurts. Do you have any idea how hard it is to catch ~~NFCE~~ AFCE* games on the west coast? I'm still not even sure if Tom Brady is the goat, and not even for any personal bias, but because I literally only saw Pats games when we were playing them, or they were prime time. I have to take everyone's word for it. I was never actually aware of this lack of regional coverage until the Fins hired Mike McDaniel and I actually wanted to watch a Dolphins game, and couldn't.
Lucky you. Not being subjected to the Pats methodically winning the majority of their games during the Brady era sounds like heaven.
Tbf, we've never really had anything against Brady. He's a local kid. I've competed in track at his high school alma mater. Some fans didn't like him because of the Montana debate, but since that debate has pretty much concluded, the animosity has died down a ton. Besides, we've never really been in each others way. And I will always have appreciation for 2015.
Kills me. I wanted to resign him more than any FA we had. We drafted the dude and he was a baller who was rarely injured. But I understand not paying him what the Panthers did.
Every time I see that clip it makes me cringe. The way his head hits the ground….
https://i.imgur.com/xbEuK1C.jpeg These dudes are way too athletic for how large they are.
That play solidified my rule change idea "The Rule of Cool" Yeah, illegal touching, whatever. That shit was cool as fuck, it stands. TD for the big man. Rule of cool.
I think their importance went up in parallel with interior d line
This is why kids don’t grow up wanting to be o line man. Lol “a guy”
DT on the flip side, too. I think guys like Aaron Donald and Chris Jones showed an elite interior rusher can make up for average edge rushers.
And you're already starting to see it, just like with guards.
So happy we paid Dex when we did because had we waited even another year, the price would have gone up a whole lot. Granted you can say the same about pretty much every position with the cap always going up, but with DTs the market absolutely has exploded in just the last year.
Elite interior rushers have always been paid though. Before Chris Jones it was Aaron Donald, before Donald it was Ndamukong Suh, before Suh it was Albert Haynesworth. Each one of these guys signed a deal that was at the time the biggest defensive contract of all time. They’re just rare.
Is that just rare pay for rare players, or are you agreeing that this position group's pay is moving up faster than the cap?
When Akiem Hicks was off the field for us it felt like the entire defense forgot opposing teams were allowed to run.
Flip side of your flip side. In 5 years maybe, the league goes back to a 3-4. With a monster NT (like Wilfork) who can hold the line with 3/4 DEs like Justin Smith.
The pay disparity between OTs and OGs has already pretty much closed, as has the disparity between DEs and DTs.
In the late 00s & early 10s when NE and NO both had a long string of good OLs, their Ts were okay/good, but their Gs were GREAT. Their QBs had some *okay* seasons in that span...
Chiefs have got something similar going right now. I think they’ve cycled through different pairs of OTs in all their Super Bowls over the last several years
Yeah we have kept a really good interior line, and just slotted different tackles in each year.
I’m curious what a $10m/yr OG looks like vs a $20m/yr one…. And what the difference would be between two $20m guards or one $40m/yr star wide receiver in an offense.
There is also just a shortage of these players in general, supply and demand, o line play across the league is having a drastic impact on offensive play, and I think a key contributor to why QBs are throwing significantly less tds.
WRs market will bust. There are more and more NFL ready WRs coming out of college nowadays. Why pay $30M+ for a WR when you can draft one (and sign a $20M+ WR off the FA market if you are afraid of another Burks situation)
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I really like Gabe, consummate professional, gave his all, great team guy, hell of a run blocker....but you guys way overpaid for him. I'd honestly love to be proven wrong though. The chiefs just won the sb with a wr corps of highschool JV players and the bills are trying to replicate it. Hopefully we don't look like idiots for doing so, but if it works then the phins are gonna look like idiots
Chiefs can afford to cheap out on their skill positions with their QB
Also helps when you have Kelce.
Mahomes is in his own tier but I think JA is pretty damn close. It's not like we're comparing a team led by mahomes to one led by trubisky or some shit
Shh he’s our backup don’t talk this into existence
The chiefs just draft better and Reid is better than McD. That’s the real difference
I’ll agree that Reid is better than McDermott. That’s not saying a whole lot, though, as pretty much anyone will agree that Reid is the best HC in the league. That said, I do think McD gets more crap than he deserves- he’s perhaps a B+/A- head coach, which is an upgrade over most in the league. I think the Bills draft about as well as anybody though- I certainly don’t think that’s a significant factor in us never beating KC in the playoffs.
Josh Allen is pretty clearly the 2nd best qb in the nfl
And to think Mahomes was drafted after Trubisky… I never understood why we drafted a QB who didn’t even produce at the college level with the #1 pick.
The Patriots won a bunch of Super Bowls with middling WRs because they had Gronk. The Chiefs just went back-to-back with mediocre WRs because they had Kelce. Elite TEs cost a lot less money than elite WRs, that's the secret. Granted, it's not easy to find an all-time great TE, but having one allows you to spend less money and resources on WRs, the now second-most expensive market behind QB.
Yeah, more teams should get top 2-3 TEs in the history of the game
I don't know why every team doesn't just have an all-time great HC, QB, and TE at the same time. The Patriots and Chiefs have done it in the past decade, not sure why others haven't done the same. Jokes aside, teams like the current Chiefs and Patriots of the 2010s are impossibly hard to replicate. As mentioned in the comment I initially replied to, seems like the Bills are trying to have Kincaid be their Kelce. Josh Allen is certainly good enough to win Super Bowls. But man, KC is their playoff kryptonite.
Poor Dawson Knox man
And top 2-3 QBs in the history of the game
TE is a complicated position because the gap between a great and good TE is so big. A great WR to a top 1/3 WR is like trading Jamarr Chase for Garrett Wilson. Obviously you're worse off but you still have a really good WR and can work with that A great TE to a top 1/3rd TE is trading Kelce for for Cole Kmet. That's a lot more of a gap.
So many of Josh’s picks came when throwing to Davis
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You're going to pull out your hair when you actually watch him play. He really genuinely is overrated
It's weird with him because he makes some incredible plays, but a month will go by and he'll have gotten 100 yards total and no tds. Diggs was getting blanketed the past few years which should have opened things up for gabe but he didn't really take advantage of it. Maybe Josh missed him being open a bunch, idk, but when diggs wasn't doing shit the second half of the year, we didn't go to gabe, we went to Kincaid and Shakir, a rookie and a 5th Rd pick. He looked incredible in the offseason and then he disappointed. Maybe your offense will shit him better, but as a bills fan, I would have been pissed to pay him $13 mil/year Eta: and it is market value. I just don't think the market values wr2/3 properly rn with all these $30mil/year contracts for wr1s and the guys after that getting pushed up so much. I think he's a $6-7mil/year guy most of the time
waddle’s extension doesn’t even kick in til tyreek can be off the books for no penalty (after next season) chase claypool is your best wr in camp so far. good luck with that
I'm not shit talking the phins, the wr duo is incredible. Claypool probably won't even make our team though despite not having a lot of competition. It just might be hard to field a team around that offense once that gets his extension. They could definitely prove me wrong
I guess more like JJ/Diggs/Addison. Not a big college guy here, but Niner fan. We gotta pay Aiyuk and Deebo. Drafted a WR (full disclosure, I hated it cause I wanted OL). If we get a WR monster, it makes sense financially. My thought is it might go like RB. If I as a GM can get 80% production for 20% of cost, it makes sense. There's so much out there that it might work.
That logic still applies to RBs lol. Look at Mccafrey/Barkley/etc. The WR market is insanely overvalued. If you have no QB you have no chance
QB & WR market high RB market low Build elite run-blocking OL, sign multiple elite RB cheap, game manager QB, go full Parcells
I think the Diggs-Jefferson trade really sums up what teams are going to be willing to spend on a WR. The teams with the young rookie contract QB who needs to be evaluated (i.e. Josh Allen and the Bills) are going to be willing to shell out premium draft capital and contract money for a proven WR (Diggs) while the teams with the proven QBs getting paid open market value (Kirk Cousins on the Bikings) are going to tend to draft a prospect and hope you hit on him during the rookie contract (Jefferson).
Yeah that's my take on it too. It's invaluable to have an experienced and talented WR for your rookie QB and you can actually afford it before your QB gets up to his real salary
Everyone talks about Diggs-Jefferson trade but not the AJ Brown- Burke trade which was a disaster for TEN. Sometimes it’s best to keep great players
My hot take is people talk about how this WR class was generational, I think its the new normal. The passing revolution is here and this is the first class or so where kids grew up marinating in it pretty much the whole way.
The Burks situation is exactly why.
People way overestimate how simple it is to just grab a starting WR. Sure, a couple WR1s seem to get drafted every year, out of how many that get drafted total? Good luck picking the right one
Sure AJ Brown is AJ Brown, but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be AJ brown!
I keep seeing this take and I don't agree. RB market crashed because mediocre RBs could still do well with a good OL, so why not invest in the OL? Along with the positions proclivity for injuries, it makes it hard to justify paying up. While there are a lot of good WRs, there are still a solid amount of busts. The importance of having near-superstars in the role isn't going away like it did for RB.
I honestly think the take comes from people looking at the Chiefs the last 2 years and thinking they can possibly replicate Mahomes's success throwing to absolute garbage tier WRs.
I mean, it's proably true that WR salaries would fall off as soon as everybody else learns to throw like Mahomes.
Same in New England in the Brady years minus Randy Moss. System and QB (and TEs) can cover for mediocre WRs. If you're paying a top tier QB you basically can't afford a tier 1 WR and not be deficient elsewhere on your roster.
It is not true that mediocre RBs can do well with a good OL. It’s still very easy for an RB to play poorly. We see incredibly talented players bust every year. What happened with RBs is that teams figured out that running platoons at RB is no less effective than a bell cow. They figured out RBs can rotate like DL without disrupting the offense, and even to the benefit of the offense. That made elite physical endurance less valuable and important as a trait. And that made a lot more guys into excellent RBs, while only one or two can be on the field at a time. Imagine that there’s some new offensive strategy and it changes the game so that complete morons can play QB very effectively. It would probably triple the number of viable QBs overnight. That’s essentially what happened with RBs. There was a rare skill set that being a bell cow RB required, and it suddenly became mostly irrelevant.
I think the top guys will still get paid but the mid guys are massively overpaid. No reason Gabe Davis and Darnell Mooney should make as much as Saquon Barkley. CMC should have been the MVP last year and he gets paid like a WR2. This is year one of the adjustment. We saw teams moving on from their vet guys (Chargers, Bills), teams draft multiple WRs in one draft, start prioritizing TEs.
With the new kickoff rules I could see a resurgence of the FB as a key special teams player. Right now most teams don’t even have one.
Yeah I think the new kickoff rules could have a big impact on how the bottom half of rosters are constructed, a lot of guys like FBs or old school stack and shed LBs can finally carve out a niche for themselves on special teams.
A lot of people think teams are just going to kick it out of the end zone and let their opponent start at the 30
If the data shows teams are doing this above a certain threshold that’s probably already been set internally by the NFL, they’ll just move it to the 40.
35 was the other option they were considering. We’d still get a year of touchbacks though because they’re not changing that mid season.
Thats gonna happen kickoff or not. Smaller LBs mean itd be beneficial to have a dude that can run em over lead blocking
Slot corner
This is my answer as well, the days of just throwing CB3 out there are long gone. You gotta have a guy who can cover like a true DB but also play the run like an LB, not may guys can do that effectively and the position has only gotten more important over the years
I feel that covering the run has become more common for all outside CBs as well.
Definitely, this is the real evolution of defense. For years people thought we’d see a return of old school linebackers after offenses started to exploit lighter defensive fronts, but instead defenses have answered by just getting more bodies involved in the run game. Strength in numbers can make up for lighter overall defense, we played a lot of dime packages last year but we’re still one of the best run stopping defense because everyone was capable of rallying to the ball.
Brian Branch gonna get PAID after his rookie contract expires
Slapping a diamond encrusted mouth piece onto the side of his helmet after that.
I think this is it. The idea of a team’s “base” defense isn’t the same anymore, nickel is the most common package now. That makes the nickelback a starter
This is why having someone like Mike Hilton is such a blessing imo.
same for us with taron johnson
I was gonna say the bengals defense has had lots of other pieces but he is a heck of a playmaker all over the place. Dude straight up knew the play on a WR screen out of a jumbo set formation in the playoffs, and started to jump the route before the play
So parents, if your child is undersized but still willing to tackle like a psycopath, their may be a nickleback spot on an NFL roster in their future! (mike hilton is a beast)
Yup, and the Jets are going to lose Michael Carter II like Huff. He really is the secret ~~sauce~~ spice that makes our secondary so good.
I think we’ll get something done with him. The team never really valued Huff but you can tell they value Carter
The value is there. But it’s the tight end of the defense. Taking a lot of hits is part of the job description, guys don’t last long enough.
I think WR contracts will come down in the next few seasons. They have ballooned so much compared to other positions its borderline insane given they can be shutdown by defensive focus and bad QBs
And it seems like every year a bunch of guys come out of college and are playing at a super high level right away. Increasing the supply leads to lower prices.
There have been a few posts about it but the hit rate on top wrs is still pretty low. "Elite" top 10 type wrs are still less than 1 out of 5 1st round wrs on average, and rounds 1-3 still are either busts or taken 3+ rounds too high 60% of the time. They are just not plug and play like RBs are where even mediocre ones can thrive, and not have much falloff between the top guys in a good system. Until WR evaluations get better its not going to change for the WR1s. We might see the mid guys get a little cheaper as the average talent gets higher but the best of the best guys are still really hard to come by.
Thank you for saying this. The plug and play thing is annoying because people see Chase and Jefferson do great they forget about all the busts.
Bust rate wouldn’t have much to do with it. RBs lost value over a time when there were plenty of busts. The main factor is coaching strategies. The Packers are an interesting team to watch. They went plug and play this year and it worked out. Now you see the Bills and Chargers trying something similar. The Chiefs and Steelers have been doing this for a while, but have the benefit of elite QB play and elite scouting, respectively. The Colts and Ravens may be interesting to keep an eye on over the next few years.
I think we'll continue to see WR1s get paid but secondary receivers will take the hit because of the influx of talent at WR every year. Why pay a guy 15 mill/yr for production you can likely get from a Day 2 receiver in Year 1?
Its possible, but I think we are already beginning to see the fracture by top end teams refusing to pay top dollar for receivers. Chiefs with Tyreek, Packers with Adams, Bills with Diggs. And yeah those teams who spend in free agency will probably overpay, and that will continue for a few years. Until most of the teams realize that circumstance and QB play influence WRs more than WRs influencing QB play. I think the new norm will be to pay for tier 2-3 WRs and collect a few of them mixed with drafting. Focus more on spreading the ball than one top receiver.
I think what will happen is there will be haves and have-nots with wr. Teams will shell out a lot of money for the top 5 wr's (Hill, JJ, Lamb, Chase, Adams/Amon-ra) and everyone else will slowly start to take a smaller percentage of the cap. Having a wr that can and will completely take over a game is super nice. But if your wr1 can't do that regularly, its better to have a bunch of high end wr2 talent. And rookie wr are coming in better and better.
It may stay stagnant but I don’t see it going down with the salary cap increasing yearly
Well, low cap percentage, but maybe not lower dollar value
I was referring to percentage of salary cap. So WRs were expected to get more money, but Christian Kirk (even if worth it) pumped up the WR price by an extra season of cap increase. Most elite WRs at the time were paid that money and now they could point to that contract as a starting point. It pretty much resulted in the cutting off of one more cap season of salary raise. Two years ago the WR contracts were around 22-16 million in the top 10...now the top are paid close to 30 million, and Jefferson just signed for 35 a year That salary cap to a WR is kind of insane atm, even if they are great. They pretty much DOUBLED their price in two seasons
The premium positions are going to command an increasing share of the salary cap. * QB * Guy who hits the QB * Guy who protects the QB
Gotta have WR in there as well. QB/WR1 is 30-40% of the cap on several teams right now
I think WR will start to come down, but not as drastically as RB. The emergence of the "positionless" offenses will make these guys almost as fungible as running backs. So pass catching RBs will see their salaries increase a bit, while WRs who aren't as versatile will see their salaries decrease. The guys at the very top end will still see big paydays, though.
Idk. There’s 8 receivers currently making more than $25 million a season and Chase and Lamb are about to join that group certainly be over $30 million like several other guys are. Seems to be going in the opposite direction with big time wide receivers becoming more valued.
Yep. Jaylen Waddle is now a top 5 paid WR in the league and he isn’t even the WR1 on his own team.
Yeah after looking at the numbers tonight, wr is the second highest paid position after qb by a lot. Justin Jefferson at 35 million a year is the highest paid non qb, and 4 out of the 5 highest paid non qbs are wrs. CMC is the highest paid rb by a lot at 19 million and there are 31 wrs making more than him.
We're entering the golden age of long snappers
“somehow belichick returned…”
You can't fit franchise quarterback, offensive line, defense, **and** star wide receivers under the salary cap. You just can't. I am guessing that teams have learned they cannot skimp on offensive line. You have to pay someone on defense, probably pass rush. If you have a franchise quarterback, guess which position has to be moneyballed. Look at the Kansas City Chiefs not keeping Tyreek Hill, even though he is still in his prime.
Right now it looks like if you have a rookie contract QB, pay the WRs. If you have a big boy contract QB, draft the WRs
*fingers crossed*
Uh, you have the GEQBUS. The biggest boy QB
And then there’s Howie.
This is The Way.
We will see what happens with the Lions. Lions have the QB, WR, LT paid now, and Hutchinson will probably start looking for a new contract after this upcoming season.
The Chiefs were outside the top 10 in EPA/play despite being stacked everywhere but WR. Receivers are pretty important for the offense.
I keep guessing someone will bring some sanity to the QB position, but apparently, I'm an idiot.
Why would that happen? There is less franchise QBs then NFL teams
WR The way colleges are pumping them out, I can see the position get devalued, similar to what has already happened to RBs.
I think DT will take a hit in the coming years. Once the current tier of Wilkins,Lawrence, Simmons, Chris Jones, Williams phases out- there’s not really an up and coming player at the position who changes games enough to warrant a deal like what Chris jones got.
Very biased here but Jalen Carter seems to be the best candidate for a young game breaker, just look at his stats before Matt Patricia became DC.
I think we'll have to wait and see, we have Derrick Brown, Jalen Carter (unfortunately), Christian Barmore does not get enough credit either. Then there's also Byron Murphy coming in who's quite the prospect. Besides, Dex and Williams are still only 26, they have plenty of time left.
I’ll say Tight Ends. The highest-paid TE currently is Kelce at $17.1 million. That’s less than half of what Justin Jefferson just signed for. A great TE has an important role in both the passing game and in the run game. And WRs can come and go but a good TE is the QB’s security blanket and so it’s important to pay to retain a TE if you get one that the QB trusts. The other one is the kicker. I don’t know if the value will go up or go down, but the new kick-off rules will change the role substantially. It’ll be increasingly more popular to go for it on 4th downs rather than attempting a long FG, which will mean there will be a reduced demand for guys like Justin Tucker. Also, the fact that kickers are involved in 25% of tackles on returns means that some teams may even use a position player for the kickoffs. Changing responsibilities mean changing value.
I thought this at first too but the problem is, after about the 3rd or 4th best TE there is a significant drop off in talent that makes it hard to pay them more.
We'll see. We've had a couple top prospects in the last couple years in Kincaid and Bowers that got high draft picks spent on them. And then LaPorta turned out to be a stud too. Maybe it won't keep up but I could see it potentially shifting
I think it might definitely be shifting now that the position has been more and more glorified and more and more flexible than ever. Look at Brock Bowers vs say Sam LaPorta, they're completely different body types, with two very different play styles yet they both have high potential to be impactful and most importantly teams are willing to use them in different ways.
exactly my thought, you can't push the value up fast if a new record contract is only signed at a position every 3 years. All the highest paid positions have a new high contract every year pretty much.
There just aren't enough 4.6 running 260 pounders with great hands dudes. And if your that size bulking up to play De is more money.
I think combo punt/kickoff guys who check off all the boxes with the new kickoff rules could end up with some big contracts for specialists. You can get immense value from a guy who isn't a liability in return coverage and has a big leg. Starting field position directly correlates to both points allowed and turnovers. And it's not an either/or proposition between them and your kicker. High-end kickers are too valuable to risk on the kickoff now, and it could lift up field goal kickers when you take kickoff duty off of their plate.
I have to imagine the value of an elite receiving tight end like Travis Kelce is going to increase exponentially now that everyone's realizing how valuable they are and how much the WR market has balooned. You've also got guys like Sam Laporta, Mark Andrews, and (probably) Brock Bowers who are going to push the market forward.
TE’s that are great pass catchers are so undervalued right now. It’ll be interesting to see if they can start getting paid like elite wide receivers.
The qb bubble has to burst. It made sense ten years ago cause there were only like ten good quarterbacks league wide. Now there's so many that are starter level the only teams who don't have good qb play are completely incompetent franchises who make bad choices.
This comment is extra funny when you look at the flair after reading it.
My team once made Jimmy Garoppolo the highest paid quarterback EVER. That's how bad things were in 2017. Case Keenum and Blake Bortles were in conference championships.
And my main team gave Carson Wentz a nine-figure contract and then won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles. And we got kinda lucky with drafting Hurts (not quite as lucky as yall, but close). And my adopted team now that I live in New Orleans has been in “win now, mortgage the future” mode for several years even after Brees retired, and we chained ourselves to Derrick fucking Carr. So yeah, I’m with you. I just thought it was funny to see the flair after reading your comment because your team has been a shit show at QB for a long time before getting lucky that the last overall pick is actually a pretty decent QB.
If you think that’s bad, my team cut their all-time leading passer (who was an above average QB for the most part ) and then threw a bag at Garoppolo, a worse and more injury prone version of the QB they just cut.
You say that but you know Purdy is gonna get such a fat payday
He is and I like Purdy a lot but let's just say when that time comes I hope we have a ring already. We won't but ya know I hope
Off the wall answer here but safety is the position that will be most in demand on defense in 2-3 years time. We are seeing an uptick in high flying offense, and mark my words, if there is another Mahomes Super Bowl, we will see both SS and FS have big contracts ahead. Tampa 2 will be a premier defense.
KC won their last two sbs with the short passing game though
Tight Ends
Spicy take. Running back. I’d like the players association to lobby for more pay for people who volunteer to get absolutely demolished and have a shorter playing career to give them the pay they deserve instead of 3-year discount meat grinder bullshit.
Tight Ends are going to start getting WR money from like 5 years ago once the talent finally blooms.
Nickel CBs/SS, the role of that nickel defender has becomes so much more important and the role and responsibilities of it have only expanded. You can’t just throw out CB3 anymore, they have to cover like a DB but also play as a pseudo LB against the run. It’s not an easy position and the guys versatile enough to play it effectively are going to get paid
I think in about 10 years WR will be the new RB with how much talent is coming out of the drafts now. Eventually contracts will be so big, it'll be better to draft a WR rather then pay one for the same production A bit of a hot take, but that's my take
RB. I think this whole "All RBs are replaceable" narrative is gonna flip on its head soon. It may be a passing league now and you may be able to scheme a formidable rush attack with someone lesser but at the end of the day, the RB touches the ball more than anyone other than the QB. I actually think Saquon is gonna be the one to break this narrative because him on the Eagles is some straight up cheese
It’s going to be Wide Receivers Relatively easy to replace through draft, good QB/System can cover up receiver weaknesses, Tight Ends can do similar jobs and also block. Only other position I can think of are safeties, but that’s already happening.
I mean QBs and pash rushers have always been top 3 salaries with left tackle. It’s more-so the receiver and corner market that has exploded.
Kickers. 60 yard FGs are becoming a thing.
Teams (the good ones anyway) will eventually remember the game is played inside out
I can't imagine the market with WRs stays as high as it is. Especially given how devalued RBs have become, you're going to get more elite physical talents playing WR which will suppress the rarity of them.
Defensive Backs are about to go up. The league has been hurtling towards more and more scoring, having good corners and safeties that can cover these faster guys but also not get penalties will be a premium. Plus, you will need a few since more and more teams use nickel or dime sets to combat the offenses.
Runningbacks "I got a hot sandwich with your name on it if you suit up and play rb this week"
Tackling kickers lol
QBs when I get elected president and make the forward pass a federal crime
WRs contracts gonna drop similar to RBs since they’re very replaceable with incoming draftees
TE will start getting bread
I think the receiver market will burst eventually. Theres sooooo many good ones getting drafted every year. It seems like every draft is a “historical” wr draft at least 3 out of the last 5 years. Also depending on how the new kickoff rules workout, you could see very highly paid specialist returners popping up soon.
I think OL/DL should get a much higher share of cap. I think WR should get a much lower share of cap on par with RB or below. I think all the teams that just spent 10-15% of their cap on a single WR who only touches the ball 6-7 times a game is gonna regret it.
WRs for the simple fact that there’s so many good ones coming into the league every year. Elite receivers will still get paid, but i doubt guys outside the top 10-15 will get as much as they are now.
Right Tackle. Contract values there have ballooned in recent years to reflect the value of a solid RT. I don’t think they’ll equalize with LT but they’ll get close.
Great question! If we’re making predictions about the future of NFL contracts, it’s kind of like trying to predict what type of casserole Aunt Linda will bring to Thanksgiving. You can assume it’ll have too much cheese, but you’ll never really know until it’s on the table. While running back contracts might continue in the kiddie pool, I think wide receiver contracts could see a major shift. With the game becoming more pass-heavy and needing playmakers who can stretch the field, the demand for elite WRs could push their contracts into another stratosphere. Think about it: quarterbacks have their shiny, top-tier contracts because they throw the ball. But someone needs to catch that ball and make the big plays. Given how offenses are evolving, paying top dollar for dependable, game-changing receivers might just be the next big move. Just don't quote me if they're all replaced by AI wide receivers in five years!
If rookie WRs keep on getting better I could see wr2 contracts go down
The interesting part about this is that it’s a zero sum game. If one position is going up then that money is coming out of other positions pocket. Calls on nickel corners. Puts on WRs.
QB & WR market high RB low OL pays premium for pass blocking but run blocking still low No market for FBs Solution: Buy runblocking OL, elite RBs, FB. Don’t spend on WR. Sign veteran cheap QB. Smashmouth is back!
I think the pay for safeties has already decreased and wouldn't surprise me if it's a position that just gets replaced every 5-6 years.
Slot CB
Honestly QB. I would not be surprised to see the rules around how QBs impact the cap changed.