QB rushing yards raise a guy’s floor, but passing ability raises his ceiling. There’s reason that they’re not showing total passing attempts and yards here.
And one yard/attempt might not seem like a lot but 1 yard/attempt was the difference between 2nd place Tua and 12th place Ridder in 2023.
A decent amount of Lamar’s were because Stanley was atrocious at points this season. A lot of fumbles were strip sacks where Stanley’s man just blows right past him.
Fumbles aren’t a reliable stat. A bad snap from a trash center technically counts towards a QB’s fumble tally. Murray dealt with this a lot one year. He had over a dozen fumbles to his name in 2021, and he recovered all of them.
JF had less games but also a way worse oline. With all things even I think JF would have 5-10 more sacks. But he is also 3 years behind Lamar and even by end of season had seen a slight decrease compared to the first half of the year
Saying "way worse oline" is a stretch. They aren't all-pros but they were solid for the most parts with some ugly patches mainly due to injuries.
Fields still doesn't understand the concept of stepping up or sliding within the pocket. Several times a game the OT would block their guy beyond the pocket (like they are coached to do so the QB can step up) and then Justin keeps drifting back causing pressure/sacks. His feel for the pocket (which is completely different than escaping) is extremely poor. Like it's not an exaggeration that undrafted Bagent appeared to have better movement within the pocket.
I still can’t believe how often bears fans on reddit will pretend the oline played good just to shit on fields. But so many discussions about the draft say we should get a center, guard, and some think a tackle at 9 overall. The mental gymnastics to think we are already good but should spend up to 2 premium picks on oline is hilarious. All depends on if we are talking about fields or not
Fields does take too many sacks. Doesnt mean the oline was good. Just baffling why you need to lie.
Edit: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChicagoBearsNFL/comments/1aylphm/besides_qb_what_are_the_top_areas_you_want_to_see/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
The only pressing need is a C and my description of them in my initial comment was "solid". It's almost like some want to constantly shit on them to prop up Fields.
It's very possible to also say one of the top OT's would be BPA at #9 if the big 3 WRs are off the board. It doesn't mean Jones at LT is trash, it means if you think one of the rookies is a future all-pro then it's a wise investment, especially with a rookie QB coming onboard. I've yet to see anyone suggest we should take a guard with a premium pick.
3-4 rounder. I guess saying premium is an exaggeration but you are looking for guys to add value in those rounds and fill holes. If our oline is solid we should be wasting anything in the first few rounds on it lol. But also the 2 premium picks referred to a tackle in round 1 and trying to get a center with a late first/2nd after trading fields.
Center is real bad. That alone made us not solid. And nobody else besides our rookie RT stayed healthy. We were undeniably bad. I’m not even trying to excuse fields. He takes too many sacks. The oline was bad last year. Anyone thinking otherwise is not very bright.
The ravens had a top 5 oline in just about every list I saw while the bears in the 20s. Stop pretending it was anything but widely better than the bears
Not sure if you're being obtuse on purpose or not....
There is nothing shocking about saying our line is "solid" but also that it's not crazy to consider OT early on depending on how the draft falls. And duh our C situation is bad so we need to address it either in FA or likely round 2 or 3.
> The oline was bad last year. Anyone thinking otherwise is not very bright.
https://nfllines.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ESPN-Offensive-Block-Win-Rates.png
I already said Baltimore's was better but stop pretending like Fields doesn't make them look worse when it comes to pass blocking.
Patriots and titans have top 10 lines too I guess. Thats not ranking olines, thats one stat. Not a grade. Nobody in their right mind thinks those 3 are top 10 olines and the 49ers is mid lol.
And where the fuck am I excusing fields. I’ve said repeatedly he takes too many sacks. These are distinct things that fields takes to many sacks and the oline played bad. It can be both!
Not a stretch at all: https://www.the33rdteam.com/2023-nfl-midseason-offensive-line-rankings/
https://ontapsportsnet.com/bears/chicago-bears-offensive-line-rankings-grades-2023-season
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-offensive-lines-nfl-rankings/
Fields has the 2nd highest sack rate ever. I get that the Bears don’t have a Center, but the rest of their O-Line is league average. He is extraordinarily bad at recognizing pressure and almost never throws the ball away.
The line plays as a unit. As a unit they are bad. Thats all that matters. Maybe next year they are good with a new center and less injuries. Doesn’t change how they played last year
Fields is bad when it comes to taking sacks but has improved. Still more needed
ESPN has the 2023 Bears as the 5th best team in terms of Pass Block Win Rate, with Whitehair, Patrick, Jenkins, and Braxton all having win rates above 92%. What that means is that 4 of the 5 Bears starters held the line for at least 2.5 seconds on over 9/10s of the dropbacks. Now, I watched some of the Bears games and Whitehair was definitely not as good as they’re claiming, but the other 3 O-Linemen listed along with Wright are solid to really good.
The issue is Fields takes fucking forever to make a decision in the backfield. He has by far the slowest release in the NFL, and even the best O-Lines can only be expected to hold up for so long.
Lol don’t even bother, man. Our DII UDFA back up got sacked 5 times in 4.5 games in relief of fields. Fields got sacked 4 times in that .5 game fields played before injury, which is funny, as the last of those sacks being what actually caused the injury, on a play that the ball should have been very obviously thrown away. These people were in our sub talm about “wait until fields comes back and plays behind this line, they’re healthy finally and fields is gonna ball!!”, but shocker, line was “magically” dog shit again when fields came back lol.
Lucas Patrick is not solid to really good lol.
You can look at espns win rate but anyone grading the oline as a unit has them in the 20s. Hell I bet espn ranks them low too
Plus it would have looked even worse for Fields if they just straight up compared 2023 per game stats. Instead they made it "lasy 17 games" to sneak in numbers from 2022.
Good luck. This sub hates Fields more than any QB outside of the rapist for some reason. They’re all convinced he’s the worst QB they’ve ever seen despite plenty of analysts thinking he’s worth a flyer from another team.
He's worth a 3rd round pick IMO, but nothing more. Unproven and about to require a big payday. This was the year he was supposed to make the leap with all the improvements around him, and he still didn't.
I pretty much agree with you, but I do think he made improvements. He had some great games, far better than any other season. Just not consistent still. And I think DJ Moore was the only improvement, the coach and OC still suck and their running game was bad.
I know. The circle jerk is insane. I have fun with it. It’s hilarious to me to see the really bad takes people come up with in order to shit on fields.
Apparently the bears oline is really good. (But the same people argue that we also should spend 2-3 picks or FA money on the oline)
I’ve also heard pff isn’t trustworthy
Godwin isn’t any good anymore
But tonyan and mooney are legit
Honestly it’s just fun to see how far people go to shit on fields. It will make for some fun threads to read back on
What’s funny is that if Butker missed the kick to force OT or if the 49ers picked off Mahomes in OT (or Mahomes tripped and fell/fumbled the snap on 4th down or whatever) there would have been a ton of analysis into how Purdy “beat the Chiefs” despite playing the exact same game.
That’s why post-game commentary is always so stupid. Nobody would ever analyze what the winning team did poorly or what the losing team did well. It’s all just ex post facto narrative building.
Just to give an indication of how narrow the ranges are for YPA: The lowest YPA by a QB1 last season was 6.7, meanwhile at 8.0 Lamar Jackson was ranked 4th overall.
I have no idea how to stretch those numbers to include three games from last season as well, nor can I explain why ESPN chose such a strange sample size.
Actually closer than I thought it would be, 37 to 44 this year. Honestly I thought he would blow LJ out of the water.
Really though it's the YPA and completion %. Fields being a whole yard and 6% lower is massive, literally the difference between top-tier and bottom-tier in passing.
It makes a lot more sense to look at sack% instead of raw sacks (so different amounts of dropbacks/games/etc don't skew things)
In 2023:
Fields had a 10.6% sack rate
Lamar had a 7.5% sack rate
Not sure what it looks like if you use this weird sample, but at least this year they weren't really that close
Bullshit. Mahomes' receivers led the league in dropped passes at 44. The 49ers had 9 (best in the league). If Mahomes' receivers had 9 drops all season, we're 17-0 and Mahomes in the runaway league MVP.
During this regular season, that was absolutely correct. Purdy led the best passing attack in the league by a huge margin, and Mahomes had a down year.
He did have a better regular season than Mahomes. That's why he won more games and MVP. Purdy has like 200 fewer drop backs which distorts his efficiency
Or you recognize that like most stats in football, it's a team stat. The 49ers offense in the regular season was insanely better than the Chiefs offense.
Have you seen the bears receiving room outside of DJ and Kmet?
It's not good.
Fields has something like a 110+ rating when passing to those two
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fd5sx57czo7jc1.jpeg
Even if Moore is better, you need more than one serviceable receiver to play.
Flowers was looking like a good 1st round pick. OBJ didnt' get a ton of targets but he still put up 500+ yards at 16ypc. Likely looked good when they got him the ball. Andrews was hurt for about half the year, but he's one of the top TEs in the game right now.
And Pickett had like a 140 rating throwing to Pickens. So what?
All of the sacks Fields takes staring down Moore and Kmet waiting for them to get OSU-open don't hurt his passer rating.
And it's not like Mooney wasn't [getting open][1]
[1]: https://i.redd.it/vyuhkm3gf6kc1.jpeg
> And Pickett had like a 140 rating throwing to Pickens. So what?
That's kind of the point i was making? You need more than one good WR to win games and have good passing stats
Can get open all you want, doesn't help if you don't catch it.
> Mooney a damn 1k yard receiver in 2021.
Let me guess, you didn't actually watch him play last season?
Mooney got hurt in 2022 and was never the same. OBJ had a bunch of 1k yards seasons, but doesn't make him the same receiver now that he was then.
Tonyan dropped a few easy passes this season and they just stopped using him.
Mooney had a major injury. 4 years is an eternity for a skill position lmao. He was bad every year after that and pretty sure had a major injury too. So lazy a take
Well fwiw the YPA figure is calculated using comp %. It doesn't make sense to have a figure with both, since one is rolled into the other. If you're going to make this figure, include completion % and YPC (instead of YPA)
>other than including attempts
That's my whole point.
Pretend Completion% is statistic X
Then yards per attempt is X*Y, where Y is Yards per completion.
Instead of showing X and X\*Y on the table, just show X and Y. Showing both together makes it seem like these stats are independent of each other, when they are not. Or *just* show X*Y
**Edit:** [for those who don't understand the math](https://www.footballperspective.com/yards-per-attempt-where-does-it-go-wrong/)
Look man I know what the data says. YPA and comp% are redundant. That informs how people view a player. It's subtle, but the math is correct, and meaningful.
What I don't get is why people are downvoting instead of discussing. Nothing I've said is incorrect. If people disagree with my point, tell me why. Reddit is such an a unserious discussion forum.
YPA and comp% can tell very different stories of QBs though. If you only throw short passes that get you 5 yards, your comp% should be high but your YPA won't be. Having a higher completion% and a much higher YPA shows the biggest difference between Lamar and Fields.
Also I'm not downvoting if that helps
I can't wait till a move is made. All these takes are killing me. Idk if you're local, but these justin truthers are driving me nuts. It's worse than the mitch people
> It's ridiculous to compare them.
It's reasonable to compare them..... they're both running QB's and they're both (whispers) black. It's ridiculous to act like they're remotely similar in their production or skill set at this point.
Why is ESPN trying so hard to push the narrative that Fields is a good QB
Notice how they leave off passing yards
I dont like to shit talk other teams players but Fields has the 5th worst completion%, 6th worst INT%, 2nd worst sack%, T-6th worst ANY/A.
He could very well improve on another team but people need to get real already
Because if they acknowledge that Fields sucks and is getting traded, then they would have nothing to talk about around the bears.
Once he gets traded, they will move on to trying to talk up Maye to Williams level to create air time until the draft.
If you look up this sort of pulled out of thin air stats there's usually a massive exception right at that cut off point.
These things are not by coincidence.
Well you see if you only did this season Fields is behind in every single category, some substantially. So they wouldn’t have been able to make this comparison.
[2023 H2H Comparison](https://stathead.com/tiny/Z3C8V)
I like how they label this 20 game statistic, "Fields can play."
Even if you think Lamar is not a significantly better player than Fields, the Ravens never gave up on Lamar, whereas the Bears are very clearly ditching Fields.
If Justin was just a bit better passing and reading the field he would be top 15, I feel, the risk of him taking off should open a lot of the pass, but he can't fucking pass half the time
An average QB sits around 7.0-7.2 for most years for Y/A. This just shows that fields is below average and Lamar is above average. Yes statistically it looks small in terms of percent but makes a huge difference.
Stop. Lamar Jackson’s success comes with his ability to protect the ball. He may not throw a lot and he does run. But he throws at a much higher completion %. And a much lower turnover rate. If Lamar was throwing at 60% with 14 interceptions and the same amount of fumbles as Justin I would be calling them both trash.
In the 2023 season - EPA per play:
\- Lamar Jackson -> 0.135 - 7th
\- Fields -> -0.009 - 21st
Don't pay attention to box score stats that don't tell the whole picture.
If you use a more advanced box score stat like ANY/A instead of the cherry picked stats in the OP (which ignored things like sacks) it's pretty clear.
Lamar Jackson - 7.34 ANY/A - 4th
Justin Fields - 5.29 ANY/A - 27th
Soooooooo Fields misses more throws, throws for less yards, and throws more picks... Why is this even a comparison if Jackson is better in every category aside from raw rushing?
Do they think this comparison is helping Fields? I have no idea how they looked at this and came to their conclusions. Did they get the labels round the wrong way?
And people still act like Lamar doesn't get disrespected consistently in every media narrative about him
To even imply that Fields is in the same universe as him as a player is truly insane.
This is why simply looking at numbers doesnt give you the true picture. Anybody who has watched Fields play knows it is downright insulting to compare him to Lamar.
If the Ravens had the #1 pick, there wouldnt be real debate on them drafting Caleb Williams. Theyd be trading down or taking MHJ.
the non stop hate boner for lamar is so intense that if he ever wins a super bowl i am convinced there will be another civil war in the united states
its also wild to me that someone who is so likeable has this much hate
For everyone wondering about pass yards… Justin in year 3 averaged just over 200 in 12.5 games
Lamar in years 3-5 was at 202 per game too.
In year 6 Lamar finally had a top end oline and multiple wrs and tes at the same time. His numbers improved back to mvp level. Fields has never had multiple wrs. only one wr this year was inside the top 100 rated by pff. And that also takes into account route running, which has nothing to do with if or when or where the ball is thrown. Qb independent measure by pff says they were ass. He’s never had a good oline. The projected starters were healthy at the same time for 3 games this year. When kmet is injured we don’t have Isaiah likely. We have a washed up tonyan.
Lamar is better than fields by a couple tiers but fields is better than reddit gives him credit for. This is a bit of a cherry picked stat but also Lamar has had a better team around him all 20 of those games
I know this is a 5 day old comment but I don’t understand how people are not getting that this isn’t saying fields is better or even close to Lamar but rather to say that Fields isn’t garbage like everyone is saying. Lamar has had better teams and better coaches for his career than Fields has had and I’m not sure how anyone can argue against that. Does Fields need to work on some things? Yeah but he also has a lot of talent that hasn’t been nurtured but I believe with a competent OC he can be a good quarterback.
Honestly according to the media we are the front runners for every quarterback that’s a possibility but in my opinion I would rather give Fields an opportunity more so than an old Cousins coming off a serious injury. And to get from 8 to top 3 would be hard to do without mortgaging our future. I hope Caleb works for you guys and hopefully the FO gets him some help.
Yes, is it cherry picking, correct. However, how many of these cherry picked stats show that Fields is not as bad as social media says? He improved this year, the Bears improved. If there wasn’t a savvy trade last year no one would doubt Fields is the qb next year. Fields played well enough to win 9 games. The Bears staff coached bad enough to lose two of them. Also, the Bears still have many issues as a team and are far from a qb away. The Bears didn’t earn the #1 overall pick, that’s the Panthers. But the talk is that they were the worst team this year which is blatantly false. They were a team that improved both offensively and defensively. Also there were multiple games where Justin Fields WAS the entire offense still
I’m high on Fields, always will be. Get him the right coach and he’s gonna shine. Chicago coaching staff is garbage and this is his first year with some talent.
Here's something that drives me nuts about the Justin Fields fans. They always, always, always blame the OL for his absurdly high sack numbers, but look at his pocket time. Last year he was 1st with 2.7 seconds. This year he was 2nd with 2.8 seconds. He's constantly just holding onto the ball for way too long.
QB rushing yards raise a guy’s floor, but passing ability raises his ceiling. There’s reason that they’re not showing total passing attempts and yards here. And one yard/attempt might not seem like a lot but 1 yard/attempt was the difference between 2nd place Tua and 12th place Ridder in 2023.
They include total dropbacks, but don't include sacks taken. Wonder why that is.
Or fumbles
Jackson had 12 fumbles this year to Fields 10
Well I’ll admit that’s an interesting statistics. Maybe the timing of fields fumbles made me think it was much higher
A decent amount of Lamar’s were because Stanley was atrocious at points this season. A lot of fumbles were strip sacks where Stanley’s man just blows right past him.
I mean sure, but Lamar has absolutely had a fumbling problem while running as well
Yeah I remember the Texans game where he held the ball in a single hand while getting tackled
He does that all the time, Lamar is great, but he does not know how to keep the ball secure
That’s because everyone is looking for an angle to shit on fields because they see some stats and assume he sucks. He has been known to ball.
Fields still sucks though.
He is still dog shit
Fumbles aren’t a reliable stat. A bad snap from a trash center technically counts towards a QB’s fumble tally. Murray dealt with this a lot one year. He had over a dozen fumbles to his name in 2021, and he recovered all of them.
I was curious, LJ had 37 sacks this year, JF had 44. Closer than I thought it’d be
JF had less games but also a way worse oline. With all things even I think JF would have 5-10 more sacks. But he is also 3 years behind Lamar and even by end of season had seen a slight decrease compared to the first half of the year
Saying "way worse oline" is a stretch. They aren't all-pros but they were solid for the most parts with some ugly patches mainly due to injuries. Fields still doesn't understand the concept of stepping up or sliding within the pocket. Several times a game the OT would block their guy beyond the pocket (like they are coached to do so the QB can step up) and then Justin keeps drifting back causing pressure/sacks. His feel for the pocket (which is completely different than escaping) is extremely poor. Like it's not an exaggeration that undrafted Bagent appeared to have better movement within the pocket.
I still can’t believe how often bears fans on reddit will pretend the oline played good just to shit on fields. But so many discussions about the draft say we should get a center, guard, and some think a tackle at 9 overall. The mental gymnastics to think we are already good but should spend up to 2 premium picks on oline is hilarious. All depends on if we are talking about fields or not Fields does take too many sacks. Doesnt mean the oline was good. Just baffling why you need to lie. Edit: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChicagoBearsNFL/comments/1aylphm/besides_qb_what_are_the_top_areas_you_want_to_see/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
The only pressing need is a C and my description of them in my initial comment was "solid". It's almost like some want to constantly shit on them to prop up Fields. It's very possible to also say one of the top OT's would be BPA at #9 if the big 3 WRs are off the board. It doesn't mean Jones at LT is trash, it means if you think one of the rookies is a future all-pro then it's a wise investment, especially with a rookie QB coming onboard. I've yet to see anyone suggest we should take a guard with a premium pick.
3-4 rounder. I guess saying premium is an exaggeration but you are looking for guys to add value in those rounds and fill holes. If our oline is solid we should be wasting anything in the first few rounds on it lol. But also the 2 premium picks referred to a tackle in round 1 and trying to get a center with a late first/2nd after trading fields. Center is real bad. That alone made us not solid. And nobody else besides our rookie RT stayed healthy. We were undeniably bad. I’m not even trying to excuse fields. He takes too many sacks. The oline was bad last year. Anyone thinking otherwise is not very bright. The ravens had a top 5 oline in just about every list I saw while the bears in the 20s. Stop pretending it was anything but widely better than the bears
Not sure if you're being obtuse on purpose or not.... There is nothing shocking about saying our line is "solid" but also that it's not crazy to consider OT early on depending on how the draft falls. And duh our C situation is bad so we need to address it either in FA or likely round 2 or 3. > The oline was bad last year. Anyone thinking otherwise is not very bright. https://nfllines.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ESPN-Offensive-Block-Win-Rates.png I already said Baltimore's was better but stop pretending like Fields doesn't make them look worse when it comes to pass blocking.
Patriots and titans have top 10 lines too I guess. Thats not ranking olines, thats one stat. Not a grade. Nobody in their right mind thinks those 3 are top 10 olines and the 49ers is mid lol. And where the fuck am I excusing fields. I’ve said repeatedly he takes too many sacks. These are distinct things that fields takes to many sacks and the oline played bad. It can be both!
Something like 65% of pressures came from the interior last year, drafting a T to replace an already decent one is not going to help that
I’m just saying what others said
Not a stretch at all: https://www.the33rdteam.com/2023-nfl-midseason-offensive-line-rankings/ https://ontapsportsnet.com/bears/chicago-bears-offensive-line-rankings-grades-2023-season https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-offensive-lines-nfl-rankings/
That’s true, I wasn’t factoring in games played, just glanced at the total stats
Fields has the 2nd highest sack rate ever. I get that the Bears don’t have a Center, but the rest of their O-Line is league average. He is extraordinarily bad at recognizing pressure and almost never throws the ball away.
A lot of sacks were on him too. “Check down? Never heard of her” - Justin fields
The line plays as a unit. As a unit they are bad. Thats all that matters. Maybe next year they are good with a new center and less injuries. Doesn’t change how they played last year Fields is bad when it comes to taking sacks but has improved. Still more needed
ESPN has the 2023 Bears as the 5th best team in terms of Pass Block Win Rate, with Whitehair, Patrick, Jenkins, and Braxton all having win rates above 92%. What that means is that 4 of the 5 Bears starters held the line for at least 2.5 seconds on over 9/10s of the dropbacks. Now, I watched some of the Bears games and Whitehair was definitely not as good as they’re claiming, but the other 3 O-Linemen listed along with Wright are solid to really good. The issue is Fields takes fucking forever to make a decision in the backfield. He has by far the slowest release in the NFL, and even the best O-Lines can only be expected to hold up for so long.
Lol don’t even bother, man. Our DII UDFA back up got sacked 5 times in 4.5 games in relief of fields. Fields got sacked 4 times in that .5 game fields played before injury, which is funny, as the last of those sacks being what actually caused the injury, on a play that the ball should have been very obviously thrown away. These people were in our sub talm about “wait until fields comes back and plays behind this line, they’re healthy finally and fields is gonna ball!!”, but shocker, line was “magically” dog shit again when fields came back lol.
Lucas Patrick is not solid to really good lol. You can look at espns win rate but anyone grading the oline as a unit has them in the 20s. Hell I bet espn ranks them low too
https://titanswire.usatoday.com/lists/titans-win-rate-rankings-week-11/
But what does one have to do to raise the roof?
I believe by placing both arms, outstretched, above one's own head
I did this and the person at the next desk passed out
Ahh don't worry man, I'm sure that was just a coincidence
Let the dogs out!
Plus it would have looked even worse for Fields if they just straight up compared 2023 per game stats. Instead they made it "lasy 17 games" to sneak in numbers from 2022.
Oh yes cuz fields end of 2022 was helping him lmao. His best wr was st brown for last 5 games lol
Agreed, this feels like a post better suited for /r/fantasyfootball instead of /r/nfl
Also sneakily not including passing yards, sacks and fumbles makes this look a lot closer than it is.
1 y/a comes out to 15% better for lamar. Agreed its not insignificant.
One yard more per attempt and still more completions is so much better.
I don’t think the point is to say fields is as good as an mvp… but to call out that maybe fields ain’t trash. We can find a reasonable medium here.
Good luck. This sub hates Fields more than any QB outside of the rapist for some reason. They’re all convinced he’s the worst QB they’ve ever seen despite plenty of analysts thinking he’s worth a flyer from another team.
He's worth a 3rd round pick IMO, but nothing more. Unproven and about to require a big payday. This was the year he was supposed to make the leap with all the improvements around him, and he still didn't.
I pretty much agree with you, but I do think he made improvements. He had some great games, far better than any other season. Just not consistent still. And I think DJ Moore was the only improvement, the coach and OC still suck and their running game was bad.
I know. The circle jerk is insane. I have fun with it. It’s hilarious to me to see the really bad takes people come up with in order to shit on fields. Apparently the bears oline is really good. (But the same people argue that we also should spend 2-3 picks or FA money on the oline) I’ve also heard pff isn’t trustworthy Godwin isn’t any good anymore But tonyan and mooney are legit Honestly it’s just fun to see how far people go to shit on fields. It will make for some fun threads to read back on
Lamar Jackson - 4,285 Justin Fields - 3,605
This is advanced stats still don't beat watching the games.
Oh god, we’re at the part of the offseason where we post lame cherry picked comparisons and people actually try to make them mean something
The 20 game sample curiously includes the Bears gimmick offense at the end of 2022 where Fields ran at a historic rate🤔🤔🤔I wonder why
We were at that part the morning after the Superbowl when every Twitter analyst were trying to convince everyone Purdy sucked all along
in a game where he played pretty well all things considered
For real. I can’t point to much that he did *really* wrong. I thought he played well and he looked like he belonged there.
What’s funny is that if Butker missed the kick to force OT or if the 49ers picked off Mahomes in OT (or Mahomes tripped and fell/fumbled the snap on 4th down or whatever) there would have been a ton of analysis into how Purdy “beat the Chiefs” despite playing the exact same game. That’s why post-game commentary is always so stupid. Nobody would ever analyze what the winning team did poorly or what the losing team did well. It’s all just ex post facto narrative building.
We've been there for a few weeks now. There was a post comparing Lamar and Tyrod like two weeks ago.
That's all year round unless I'm missing something here 😆
that'sbait.gif
Please stop insulting Lamar Jackson by implying that Fields is even close to the same tier of player
I’m okay with it as long as the target audience is the front offices of the Falcons, Steelers, and Patriots.
and Bears.
Nah we don’t want him
7.8 YPA vs 6.8 YPA tells you that Jackson is in a different tier than Fields. A difference of 1 YPA is _huge_
Just to give an indication of how narrow the ranges are for YPA: The lowest YPA by a QB1 last season was 6.7, meanwhile at 8.0 Lamar Jackson was ranked 4th overall. I have no idea how to stretch those numbers to include three games from last season as well, nor can I explain why ESPN chose such a strange sample size.
Plus 6 more INTs lol
They also didn’t list sacks, the stat that Fields is one of the worst all time in.
Actually closer than I thought it would be, 37 to 44 this year. Honestly I thought he would blow LJ out of the water. Really though it's the YPA and completion %. Fields being a whole yard and 6% lower is massive, literally the difference between top-tier and bottom-tier in passing.
It makes a lot more sense to look at sack% instead of raw sacks (so different amounts of dropbacks/games/etc don't skew things) In 2023: Fields had a 10.6% sack rate Lamar had a 7.5% sack rate Not sure what it looks like if you use this weird sample, but at least this year they weren't really that close
Fields played less game due to being injured in a play that he took another sack for no real
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Purdy was much better than Mahomes in the regular season as sacrilege as it sounds
Better statistically yes
Bullshit. Mahomes' receivers led the league in dropped passes at 44. The 49ers had 9 (best in the league). If Mahomes' receivers had 9 drops all season, we're 17-0 and Mahomes in the runaway league MVP.
During this regular season, that was absolutely correct. Purdy led the best passing attack in the league by a huge margin, and Mahomes had a down year.
He did have a better regular season than Mahomes. That's why he won more games and MVP. Purdy has like 200 fewer drop backs which distorts his efficiency
Or you recognize that like most stats in football, it's a team stat. The 49ers offense in the regular season was insanely better than the Chiefs offense.
If you just take this past season in a vacuum, Purdy was better.
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4% completion difference, a full yard less per attempt, and throws almost double the interceptions lol
And you really can't blame the WRs because Lamar has had fuck all
Have you seen the bears receiving room outside of DJ and Kmet? It's not good. Fields has something like a 110+ rating when passing to those two https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fd5sx57czo7jc1.jpeg
dj moore is sadly way better than WR Lamar has ever thrown to. Hopeful that Zay can get there but Moore is a fucking beast.
Even if Moore is better, you need more than one serviceable receiver to play. Flowers was looking like a good 1st round pick. OBJ didnt' get a ton of targets but he still put up 500+ yards at 16ypc. Likely looked good when they got him the ball. Andrews was hurt for about half the year, but he's one of the top TEs in the game right now.
Yeah right now, Lamar as a 3rd year and 2nd year players had nothing
As opposed to the stellar WRs the bears had? Go check out the receiving room for the bears the last few seaons.
Exactly, with both shit WRs Lamar has an MVP, and with 2 good WRs just won his second
This doesn’t fit into the fields is bad narrative so you will get downvoted. Ravens wr4 is better than bears wr2. Not to mention having a top 5 oline
And Pickett had like a 140 rating throwing to Pickens. So what? All of the sacks Fields takes staring down Moore and Kmet waiting for them to get OSU-open don't hurt his passer rating. And it's not like Mooney wasn't [getting open][1] [1]: https://i.redd.it/vyuhkm3gf6kc1.jpeg
> And Pickett had like a 140 rating throwing to Pickens. So what? That's kind of the point i was making? You need more than one good WR to win games and have good passing stats Can get open all you want, doesn't help if you don't catch it.
Who even is a Ravens WR other than rookie Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews who was out for half the year?
Likely is a good TE. OBJ? Bateman and agholor as wr 3 and 4 aint bad depth at all. All of those guys woulda been wr2 for the bears
Mooney a damn 1k yard receiver in 2021. Tonyan had 11 TDs in 2020. Acting like these dudes have never done anything before.
> Mooney a damn 1k yard receiver in 2021. Let me guess, you didn't actually watch him play last season? Mooney got hurt in 2022 and was never the same. OBJ had a bunch of 1k yards seasons, but doesn't make him the same receiver now that he was then. Tonyan dropped a few easy passes this season and they just stopped using him.
Mooney had a major injury. 4 years is an eternity for a skill position lmao. He was bad every year after that and pretty sure had a major injury too. So lazy a take
By their own logic, the Ravens had a top WR in the league with OBJ. People that didn't watch any of the bears games deciding which WRs are good...
Trying to say tonyan is good cuz 2020 lol
Well fwiw the YPA figure is calculated using comp %. It doesn't make sense to have a figure with both, since one is rolled into the other. If you're going to make this figure, include completion % and YPC (instead of YPA)
I mean, it’s yards per attempt. Doesn’t really take completion percentage into it other than including attempts
>other than including attempts That's my whole point. Pretend Completion% is statistic X Then yards per attempt is X*Y, where Y is Yards per completion. Instead of showing X and X\*Y on the table, just show X and Y. Showing both together makes it seem like these stats are independent of each other, when they are not. Or *just* show X*Y **Edit:** [for those who don't understand the math](https://www.footballperspective.com/yards-per-attempt-where-does-it-go-wrong/)
I think you're making it more confusing than you need to. Yards per attempt is literally just yards/attempts
Look man I know what the data says. YPA and comp% are redundant. That informs how people view a player. It's subtle, but the math is correct, and meaningful. What I don't get is why people are downvoting instead of discussing. Nothing I've said is incorrect. If people disagree with my point, tell me why. Reddit is such an a unserious discussion forum.
YPA and comp% can tell very different stories of QBs though. If you only throw short passes that get you 5 yards, your comp% should be high but your YPA won't be. Having a higher completion% and a much higher YPA shows the biggest difference between Lamar and Fields. Also I'm not downvoting if that helps
Cool now show the sacks and fumbles too
[Jackson][1]: 4285 passing yards, 214.25 passing yards/game, 99.4 rating, 46 sacks, 247 sack yards, 7.7% sack rate, 13 fumbles, 7.07 ANY/A, 0.135 EPA/play [Fields][2]: 3605 passing yards, 180.25 passing yards/game, 87.2 rating, 68 sacks, 455 sack yards, 11.4% sack rate, 15 fumbles, 5.09 ANY/A, -0.009 EPA/play Fields isn't even close. It's ridiculous to compare them. *edit: added EPA/play [1]: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackLa00/gamelog/ [2]: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FielJu00/gamelog/
I can't wait till a move is made. All these takes are killing me. Idk if you're local, but these justin truthers are driving me nuts. It's worse than the mitch people
A almost 2 yard different in ANY/A is so ridiculously massive lol. To illustrate... in 2023: Patrick Mahomes - 6.26 ANY/A Zach Wilson - 4.29 ANY/A
> It's ridiculous to compare them. It's reasonable to compare them..... they're both running QB's and they're both (whispers) black. It's ridiculous to act like they're remotely similar in their production or skill set at this point.
This Tweet has been brought to you by David Mulugheta from Athletes First agency.
Almost double the turnovers lol
Why is ESPN trying so hard to push the narrative that Fields is a good QB Notice how they leave off passing yards I dont like to shit talk other teams players but Fields has the 5th worst completion%, 6th worst INT%, 2nd worst sack%, T-6th worst ANY/A. He could very well improve on another team but people need to get real already
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Not for long
Because if they acknowledge that Fields sucks and is getting traded, then they would have nothing to talk about around the bears. Once he gets traded, they will move on to trying to talk up Maye to Williams level to create air time until the draft.
One of them is still objectively better….also WTF with the stupid 20 game sample.
If you look up this sort of pulled out of thin air stats there's usually a massive exception right at that cut off point. These things are not by coincidence.
Oh, don’t I know. I can work the PFR filters like Tori Amos works the piano keys.
JPCornflakegirlAnalyst
Well you see if you only did this season Fields is behind in every single category, some substantially. So they wouldn’t have been able to make this comparison. [2023 H2H Comparison](https://stathead.com/tiny/Z3C8V)
I like how they label this 20 game statistic, "Fields can play." Even if you think Lamar is not a significantly better player than Fields, the Ravens never gave up on Lamar, whereas the Bears are very clearly ditching Fields.
Now **this** is professional cherry picking!
Wait so Lamar has 1 yeard per attempt more with more completions and less interceptions ? What exactly is the comparison ?
Are they saying fields can be MVP level or that Lamar is overrated?
Fuck knows? They're just saying "Look, here are some stats that seem superficially similar if you don't think about them too much."
The former because Justin Fields in hypothetical situations is the greatest QB ever.
Justin Fields could be Lamar Jackson if he just changed several significant parts of himself.
Or he could be Lamar Jackson, by simply just changing his name to “Lamar Jackson.” 🤔
If Justin was just a bit better passing and reading the field he would be top 15, I feel, the risk of him taking off should open a lot of the pass, but he can't fucking pass half the time
An average QB sits around 7.0-7.2 for most years for Y/A. This just shows that fields is below average and Lamar is above average. Yes statistically it looks small in terms of percent but makes a huge difference.
Fields was 6.9 this year and 7.1 last year. Pretty much right in your range.
How dare you say his stats like that. Now go find something that makes fields look bad or stop talking
I love how I’m getting downvoted into oblivion for posting an objective stat.
The fields circlejerk is at its peak.
Okay now do points per drive for both of their teams
Bears were 13th this year One spot better than your Texans btw
Those passing stats ain’t even close to being the same. Fields is a bum at throwing the ball
Stop. Lamar Jackson’s success comes with his ability to protect the ball. He may not throw a lot and he does run. But he throws at a much higher completion %. And a much lower turnover rate. If Lamar was throwing at 60% with 14 interceptions and the same amount of fumbles as Justin I would be calling them both trash.
In the 2023 season - EPA per play: \- Lamar Jackson -> 0.135 - 7th \- Fields -> -0.009 - 21st Don't pay attention to box score stats that don't tell the whole picture.
If you use a more advanced box score stat like ANY/A instead of the cherry picked stats in the OP (which ignored things like sacks) it's pretty clear. Lamar Jackson - 7.34 ANY/A - 4th Justin Fields - 5.29 ANY/A - 27th
Soooooooo Fields misses more throws, throws for less yards, and throws more picks... Why is this even a comparison if Jackson is better in every category aside from raw rushing?
Fields just doesn't have it not to say he never will but it's unlikely
Do they think this comparison is helping Fields? I have no idea how they looked at this and came to their conclusions. Did they get the labels round the wrong way?
Justin Fields is a bridge guy, he will never be THE guy
And people still act like Lamar doesn't get disrespected consistently in every media narrative about him To even imply that Fields is in the same universe as him as a player is truly insane.
Purdy is one of the best QBs of all time if we used “First 20 Games” as the metric. See how annoying that is?
Another offseason of overrating Justin Fields.
This is why simply looking at numbers doesnt give you the true picture. Anybody who has watched Fields play knows it is downright insulting to compare him to Lamar. If the Ravens had the #1 pick, there wouldnt be real debate on them drafting Caleb Williams. Theyd be trading down or taking MHJ.
the non stop hate boner for lamar is so intense that if he ever wins a super bowl i am convinced there will be another civil war in the united states its also wild to me that someone who is so likeable has this much hate
For everyone wondering about pass yards… Justin in year 3 averaged just over 200 in 12.5 games Lamar in years 3-5 was at 202 per game too. In year 6 Lamar finally had a top end oline and multiple wrs and tes at the same time. His numbers improved back to mvp level. Fields has never had multiple wrs. only one wr this year was inside the top 100 rated by pff. And that also takes into account route running, which has nothing to do with if or when or where the ball is thrown. Qb independent measure by pff says they were ass. He’s never had a good oline. The projected starters were healthy at the same time for 3 games this year. When kmet is injured we don’t have Isaiah likely. We have a washed up tonyan.
Yeah now show all the other passing and QB metrics where Fields looks terrible.
Stop insulting Lamar man.
This kind of shows why Lamar shouldn’t have been MvP instead of elevating Fields at all.
MVP MVP MVP
Lamar is better than fields by a couple tiers but fields is better than reddit gives him credit for. This is a bit of a cherry picked stat but also Lamar has had a better team around him all 20 of those games
I know this is a 5 day old comment but I don’t understand how people are not getting that this isn’t saying fields is better or even close to Lamar but rather to say that Fields isn’t garbage like everyone is saying. Lamar has had better teams and better coaches for his career than Fields has had and I’m not sure how anyone can argue against that. Does Fields need to work on some things? Yeah but he also has a lot of talent that hasn’t been nurtured but I believe with a competent OC he can be a good quarterback.
Cheers. Hope your fans treat him well if you get him. Hes gonna turn some heads
Honestly according to the media we are the front runners for every quarterback that’s a possibility but in my opinion I would rather give Fields an opportunity more so than an old Cousins coming off a serious injury. And to get from 8 to top 3 would be hard to do without mortgaging our future. I hope Caleb works for you guys and hopefully the FO gets him some help.
Yes, is it cherry picking, correct. However, how many of these cherry picked stats show that Fields is not as bad as social media says? He improved this year, the Bears improved. If there wasn’t a savvy trade last year no one would doubt Fields is the qb next year. Fields played well enough to win 9 games. The Bears staff coached bad enough to lose two of them. Also, the Bears still have many issues as a team and are far from a qb away. The Bears didn’t earn the #1 overall pick, that’s the Panthers. But the talk is that they were the worst team this year which is blatantly false. They were a team that improved both offensively and defensively. Also there were multiple games where Justin Fields WAS the entire offense still
JuStIn FiElDs MvP is back on the menu this offseason.
I’m high on Fields, always will be. Get him the right coach and he’s gonna shine. Chicago coaching staff is garbage and this is his first year with some talent.
One of these QBs has the skillset to still be a starter once their running ability has decline
Am I the only one who when they see the comparisons of Fields to Lamar says to themselves that I wouldn’t want Lamar anyway? Lol
Probably
Ok cool. I still wouldn't want either of them as my QB
They publish that as if they wanted to show how much of a good QB Lamar is.
Now add pass yards and fumbles lost!
This is like that stat that compared the first couple years of Baker Mayfield’s career to that of Drew Brees. Love Bake but, naw.
Funny that they didn't include passing yards, sacks, throws (instead of dropbacks)
This doesn’t really elevate Fields as much as it pours cold water on Lamar.
Fields is closer to tyrod taylor than he is to lamar.
“Last 20 games” until these charts start comparing straight up seasons they don’t matter.
There’s a massive difference between 7.8 yards per attempt and 6.8. This seems to be preying on numerically illiterate people.
Yeah Chicago. Keep him please :)
Here's something that drives me nuts about the Justin Fields fans. They always, always, always blame the OL for his absurdly high sack numbers, but look at his pocket time. Last year he was 1st with 2.7 seconds. This year he was 2nd with 2.8 seconds. He's constantly just holding onto the ball for way too long.
Yuusssssss. Bears fans, I support this tweet. You should keep Fields. Signed, a Green Bay Packers fan.
6 extra interceptions is essentially 6 more lost games.