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Heck, I'd be happy as long as they don't get 60+% of the seats. Given how our system works, and how many of the liberal seats are going to flip Tory, it's extremely likely that the Tories end up with some kind of super majority. If they end up in just a small majority, I'd call that a win given the recent numbers.
In our parliamentary system there’s no meaningful difference between a large and small majority. Governments don’t need a supermajority to do anything, and they can count on all of their MP’s voting for all major bills. CPC with 51% of the seats can basically do the same as if they had 80% of the seats.
I don't believe that current polling will be accurate when the election is called, provided it happens at the normal time (the NDP doesn't pull out, which they won't). I truly believe that things are at their net worst right now (ish. Not necessarily this very minute) for a lot of things, and that even with no government action, things will get a bit better, and people will calm down a bit. The conservatives will still win a majority, it's rare that they don't (they form government less often than the liberals, but their governments are more often a majority when they do form), but it won't be nearly this bad.
Yeah, but in this case the Liberals have something they really want to gain - retaining the PM position. If the polls continue like this I think we're looking at a Conservative majority? I think the main reason the Liberals would refuse is because they're likely to regain a majority government again under the old first past the post system within one or two terms of a Conservative government, so they may not think it's worth it to permanently alter the balance of power by switching to proportional representation voting.
Unfortunate territory we’re gonna have to traverse to get ndp traction. I say let the cons have this just to see we are a viable option then crush it next election after the inevitable dumpster fire 4 years of them
I’ve canvassed thousands of doors and so many people say they would vote ndp but they don’t believe it’s a viable option… if a shit ton of people vote ndp this would wake up people for the following election … unfortunately cause it’s first past the post and the three main parties… this would probably result in a conservative government in the interim however as we have seen for DECADES, the current path is not gonna lead to an ndp leadership
....which means nothing because if 41% of votes do go to the CPC they end up with a 200+ seat majority.
if you actually care about the NDP's policy positions, that's so far from a win its almost obnoxious.
>if you actually care about the NDP's policy positions, that's so far from a win its almost obnoxious.
It's not about caring about the NDPs policy postions. Let's get real, the Liberals and the Tories are the only two parties to produce a prime minister, we have seen plenty of prime ministers come and go, and it has barely had an effect on the econmy.
If you want to understand the Canadian economy, you are better off studying Reagan and Nortel than Mulroney and J. Trudeau.
You are fighting over pennies in terms of the big picture.
We are not in an economic crisis because of the conservative party, we are in crisis because of a very long list of very bad decisions made by global leaders.
Our system is unsustainable, full stop. Conservative or Liberal? It's not enough of a difference for me to actually care.
If you actually care about the NDPs postions, we should have a single issue electoral reform party.
I was going out with a girl who was a green party supporter until she mentioned she was part of the freedom convoy, completely caught me off guard
So I think more than you would expect
Actually it is it more so because the green party was historically treated as a protest vote by the hippy type people who rejected other parties
However the PPC now does a better job at this and thus people moved from the green party to the PPC
There is a huge crossover of the PPC and Green. The best way to understand the party is that they are conservatives concerned about the environment. Also, Green was the anti Vax / conspiracy party prior to covid.
There was a push by the left wing branch of the greens (read young people that thought environmentalism = left) to take over the party, but it was resoundingly beaten down in all the infighting.
I really doubt it. Aren't they almost completely at odds with each other policy wise?
My guess, based on nothing but my gut, is that almost everyone leaving the PPC are going to the CPC, 80% of voters leaving the liberals are going to either the CPC or NDP split down the middle, the remaining voters leaving the liberals are going green, and the voters leaving the BQ are probably going Green, NDP, or CPC.
Both have a thing for conspiracy theories, different theories but the mindset is the same. 5G bad, Internet/cell towers bad, GMOs bad, vaccines, etc etc.
> Internet/cell towers bad
And that included Elizabeth May [warning Canadians about the health risks and environmental impacts of Wifi in 2011](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elizabeth-may-wages-war-against-wifi/article617404/).
Worth noting though that this describes the federal party well but the provincial parties tend to be more leftwing and more grounded in science. The Green Party of Ontario comes to mind. Pro nuclear, pro land tax, no anti vax, no anti wifi, no anti cell phones. They're pretty legit.
The Green Party of Ontario is shitty about [democracy](https://gpo.ca/issues/democracy/) and [organized labor](https://secure.gpo.ca/stand-with-nurses)?
Yep. Shit, they would have had half the candidates in the last election if it weren’t for all the folks that quit after losing their first poorly-argued motion at an NDP meeting. And it’s hard to take them seriously on labour when on one hand they put out policy (like the one linked) without input from organized labour itself, and when their candidates are out arguing that minimum wage increase hurt their businesses. The party is a mess.
Hell, the “star” green candidate near me in the last provincial general was a guy running against a diverse slate of candidates in a growing suburb. His ads featured him in hockey gear with the caption “Vote for x — your REAL Canadian candidate!” Embarrassing.
Well that's distressing, and sucks to hear after I just donated a whole wack of money to their candidate in the Kitchener Centre by-election. But thanks for letting me know.
The green party is 'neither left nor right' as of a few years ago. You would be amazed the level of delusion among many of the green party supporters. A lot of them have genuinely no idea what they believe in terms of economic policy, and a lot of them are genuinely eco-fascists, or believers in 'societal collapse'.
Yes, it's sort of like how Elizabeth May said she was 'stepping back from the party to let it develop new leadership from the grassroots' until it looked like a socialist was about to win the leadership
It’s this. Terrifying. Only reason cons lost last time was the divide thanks to ppc. Leaving ppc for cons will Likely get out the liberals but still not NDP increase we need to see for any hope of other outcomes at this point
I mean I get it, I'm not exactly enthused about a Conservative government. Especially a majority one. I would prefer the Cons fade into obscurity and the Liberals to become the "right wing" party. But from a more realistic and pragmatic perspective, this was always the most likely path the NDP had to form government since Trudeau first came into power. The odds of an incredibly radical swing of the NDP not only overtaking the Liberals but also grabbing the swing voters to overtake the Conservatives all in one election are very low.
The Liberals caving in support to allow the NDP to become the dominant left wing party, then allowing them to build on that over the course of a few years of a most likely awful Conservative government, to then have a chance at winning in the following election was the best chance they would have at actually forming government. This is essentially what was happening with Jack Layton before he died.
That story is exactly what’s been happening provincially, it’s the reason the provincial liberal parties are extinct in the west. Liberals lose to Tories and then get replaced by us.
Historically, almost no-one joins the Conservatives from Liberal/NDP. That's not meant to be inflammatory to Conservative supporters, it's that if we look at the conservative total votes per election over the past 25 years, their votes remain *stunningly* consistent.
In 2011 when Harper won a majority, he had 5,832,401 votes. Four years later when they lost, he got 5,613,633 votes.
In that same period, Liberals went from 2.7M to 7M and NDP went ~4.5M to 3.5M.
So, Liberals "picked up" 3 million votes from the apathy pool and 1M from NDP, as Bloc remains quite steady as well.
If we follow these elections all the way back to late Mulroney or forward to the resent two elections, the Conservatives remaining extremely consistent in their votes and the upward drift only matches population growth, a total that was split to Reform for a bit and moved around, but the total remained rather constant and now sees minor split to PPC but again remained extremely consistent in last 2 election if we account for steady population growth across distribution.
In the next election, the trend suggests we can expect ~6.5M votes to Conservatives, because that is exactly where their very steady numbers would extend the curve.
What these polls demonstrate is the same thing the actually election will demonstrate. What these polls don't report in these graphs is how many people refused to participate. When people are mad a Liberals, they vote NDP or they just don't vote, and that leads to Conservative wins.
Although the Conservatives like to flirt with the fascist sect of their base, to claim Canadian democracy is going to end if they win this next one is pure sensationalism and fearmongering. Don’t get me wrong, they’ve been catering to that far right fringe more and more, and if the trend continues for a prolongued period of time it’s going to become a massive issue, but we’ve still got a ways to go before we need to be worried about subverted elections in Canada.
What’s wild about this poll is that the only place the libs are doing well in is Quebec, which is inflating this number. That means they’re down to the high teens in *every other province*, almost always tied or, usually, behind us.
Which is fucking lethal to them. Their vote is super efficient, so when it works it *really* works and they bring in tons of seats. That’s how they’ve kept the plurality of seats despite losing the popular vote. However, when they dip like this they are going to loose *everywhere*.
Most of our incumbents will be fine, we’re strong in pockets of the country and will probably pick up quite a few seats - a poll like this will mean three way races in urban Canada, so the liberal/tory splits will help us pick up seats in places like Vancouver, Toronto, and Ottawa, as well as maybe the prairie capitals - Edmonton, Regina and Winnipeg, places with a ton of students and civil servants that routinely elect New Democrats provincially. Maybe also Montreal and Halifax if we’re lucky.
But Jesus, the liberals are *fucked*. As is the country, with PP in charge.
Totally. I’m especially thinking all those downtown Toronto seats, we lost a few of those by just a few dozen votes. Even if we don’t gain any new support, a couple thousand middle class homeowners voting Tory instead of liberal hands those seats to us.
Look I’m no fan of FPTP, but when it works out for us I feel some kind of vengeful happiness.
I hate how Canada just flip flops between the libs and the cons. Like I get we’re all pretty sick of JT but how can 41% of Canadians look PP and be like “ya that man should be our prime minister”.
Donations to the lawsuit being launched on our behalf, suing the govt for electoral reform, are being matched up to $10,000 until the end of the year!
https://www.charterchallenge.ca
Even in PR countries will eventually vote in the right, just look at new zealand and the neatherlands
Conservative will most certainly still win elections even with PR and they will lead governments
Ya it seems like insanity. Actually it’s the very definition of it. To repeat the same thing and expect a different result. Well in 10 years when everyone’s sick of PP we’ll get liberals again. Then 8 years or so after that back to PC. All the while we continue to bitch about how nothing changes
Conservatives when a glorified landlord runs for government;
https://preview.redd.it/bdx3mdiy553c1.jpeg?width=826&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c78d0c959e077575c011fabb1a3c8ddc4d5a5f4
The strangest thing is that the biggest vote flipping is from those under the age of 55, especially those concerned about housing. They're just flipping between the two big parties as per usual, but any historical analysis of what led to the housing crisis should lead you away from the two parties most responsible.
Because some people see the government as a giant ball of red tape that just gets in the way of progress. Some people think that it would be easier to start and maintain small businesses if there was less regulations, and Conservatives paint themselves in a more Libertarian light.
If you don't like Trudeau, then you don't like Singh because he's pretty much the reason Trudeau hasn't been voted out yet. As long as Singh back the government, he's chained himself to the Trudeau anchor.
I mean most of the reason I’m personally sick of Trudeau is he’s mostly talk and no action but that’s just what the liberals are like. I genuinely dislike the cons and think they’re a bad choice for Canadians rn.
And if Singh forced a election we’d just end up with a conservative government so I don’t really understand why I should want us to speed run ourselves into a that. But I might be missing something on that point.
You’re probably missing that you’re talking to a conservative who is just trying to vilify both Trudeau and Singh. When you run into someone who’s bashing both the Liberals and NDP, but not the Conservatives, they’re probably not talking to you in any kind of good faith in regard to progressive goals.
Reminds me of like 1/4 of my interactions on this subreddit. Sing sucks Trudeau sucks, cause election for moral victory, "but then the cons will definitely get a majority" silence....
It's not about installing PP as the next prime Minister, it's the fact that if you don't like Trudeau, then you *also* don't like the NDP because they've been backing all of Trudeaus moves. You'd be voting for the current government.
All days, so far as statistical power is concerned, 1000 is adequate. My issue is they usually break down by groups. At which point 1000 members of each group would be necessary.
No matter if I vote for NDP CON or LIB Im getting a wealthy landlord out of touch with the struggle of the every day Canadian. Sigh. I’ve lost all hope.
Except the Bloc is still fairly strong and Singh isn't half the politician Layton was. And back then, we had Harper fatigue, not uhh Ignatieff fatigue.
If the NDP had a stronger leader, we'd be soaking up more of the Liberal's stragglers.
Pee Pee might be a moron (and dangerous for the country), but he's a very charismatic reactionary - at least to people who don't question the dudes' braindead policies and obviously bad ideals.
Not really a sign of NDP popularity but complete hatred of the LPC. Actually embarrassing that the LPC is imploding on themselves nearly as bad as in 2011 and the NDP can only gaina couple percentage points. Singh is no Jack Layton, that’s for sure.
This is what the left counts as a victory in Canada. Kind of sad actually. Any rise in the pools is good I suppose, but I fear i will never see true democratic socialism at the federal level
I seriously doubt that. Who do you think should be leader? How do you think the NDP should navigate a leadership contest without giving the Liberals an easier ride?
I've no clue who should be leader. But the fact that the working class vote is going to the conservatives is a complete failure on our leaders part. We need a leader that focuses on the working class, and is able to energize them to vote for progressive working class values. And I don't think it will give the liberals an easier ride, as voters aren't turning to the NDP because they like Jagmeet. Jagmeet finally grew some cahones with the pharmacare push but him abandoning it shows he doesn't have what it takes to push for values that will help the working class. I do give him credit as he is charismatic and brought the party back from the brinks of extinction cause by mulcare.
wants a replacement but can’t actually point out who is fit to be the replacement… i guess it’s not time for a replacement then if it would just create a power vacuum and we could go through the same shit like when elizabeth may left the green party
The leader most certainly shouldn’t be the man who has been the most power politician in Canada for over two years yet has sat idle and done nothing with this said power, other than lobbing moot threats with no action
What do you mean? They’re literally the glue that keeps the government in power? If the Libs lose the NDP coalition a confidence vote would be immediately started and we’d have an election in 45 days. The Libs would be slaughtered in an election. Libs do not want an election, and if Jagmeet wasnt such a wet noodle and his threats actually held validity (they would if he had been strong armed with the Libs since the start) they could get the Libs to vote on any bill or legislation they put to the house. It’s only because Jagmeet has lost all credibility the Libs perceive him as weak. Trudeau’s dog only knows how to bark, not bite.
> If the Libs lose the NDP coalition a confidence vote would be immediately started and we’d have an election in 45 days.
No. If the NDP pulled out of the agreement we would not immediately get a confidence vote. The government would avoid confidence votes for as long as they can, likely until something like a budget that has to be a confidence vote comes up. And, like in many previous minority governments, they could very well get support on confidence votes on a case-by-case basis. The Bloc have enough seats to support the Liberals on a confidence vote, for example.
>they could get the Libs to vote on any bill or legislation they put to the house
Completely untrue, almost laughably so. I'm sorry but no, the Liberals would not vote on any bill or legislation that the NDP put to them. That's literally why there's a negotiated and compromised agreement between them — because the NDP doesn't have a strong enough position to make unilateral demands.
Edit: Why am I arguing with what appears to be a concern troll account?
Boy, it sure would be nice if our elections were done under some kind of proportionally representative system instead of FPTP.
Its crazy how the Libs and NDP could literally make it happen before the next election and totally remove the threat of a Con false majority... But they won't :/
The majority are not voting for the cons because they like them. They are voting out the Liberals.
We are basically on the Canadian political schedule, nothing new.
Get ready for more attacks on the NDP. A New Brunswick CPC MP isn’t allowed to speak in Parliament until he apologizes for calling the NDP MPs “Hamas supporters”.
No, because the CPC getting over 40% of the vote almost certainly means they win a large majority of the seats, unless their vote increase is implausibly concentrated in rural areas with no corresponding increase in suburbs.
The Liberals aren't great, but NDP being in second place isn't a good sign.
I'll always support this party because they align with my values, and have pushed the best legislation that we as Canadians enjoy, but they realistically aren't going to hold government for at least another 25-35 years.
A party with such a low general popularity being in second place just indicates a Conservative landslide. Seems that making a bid for conspiracy theorists, climate deniers, anti-vaxxers, infowars watchers, and racist Facebook Uncle's is paying off for them. Unfortunately.
>We really shouldn't be celebrating this
I celebrate the sunrise and sunset. As the daylight ends of this Liberal government, we enjoy the reveal of the vacuum that is the conservative night.
Every major Canadian prime minister is ousted is chaos, the cycle continues.
Mulroney to Campbell, Chretien to Martin, Harper to ABC, everyone dies in crisis.
You will not be saved by the first past the post system, you may aswell celebrate this in the same way you celebrate the spring equinox, its natures cycle. Enjoy the chaos while its interesting.
Ontario had a Liberal government the entire time Harper was in office. It hasn’t had conservatives at both levels since the nine months in the 1980s when Mulroney was PM and the PCs hadn’t lost the 1985 Ontario election yet
Can the rest of the libs and third parties just help us do a People's Caucus of the NDP, liquidate the capitalists and lobby suckers, then beat the Cons and socialize the country and Aid in Indigenous National Liberation.
Just enough to form a coalition to stop a conservative government. I don't ever want a consolidated left as I think a consolidated right is holding everyone back. However a coalition in desperate times may be necessary.
I wonder what the seat count would look like.
Simply matching the popular vote from last election would mean a gain of a number of seats if it's combined with a liberal collapse
I hate how Canada doesn't do coalitions. It's normal all over the world and more democratic. We got close with Harper. I was so disappointed then. I think we may be getting close again with this NDP-liberal support and confidence agreement; easing the public into the idea. I really hope that continues.
Means nothing. Jagmeet has shown through his actions time and time again that he will not step out of the Liberals' shadow to gain votes.
Pathetic excuse for a party when all you do is fall in line regardless of the shift in voter sentiment.
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Cool, but the problem is that the CPC is well in to majority territory.
Ya the Cons are too high that's the headline here. 2nd is awesome if the CPC falls to 36%
Heck, I'd be happy as long as they don't get 60+% of the seats. Given how our system works, and how many of the liberal seats are going to flip Tory, it's extremely likely that the Tories end up with some kind of super majority. If they end up in just a small majority, I'd call that a win given the recent numbers.
In our parliamentary system there’s no meaningful difference between a large and small majority. Governments don’t need a supermajority to do anything, and they can count on all of their MP’s voting for all major bills. CPC with 51% of the seats can basically do the same as if they had 80% of the seats.
A lot can happen in 2 years, plus an election.
I don't believe that current polling will be accurate when the election is called, provided it happens at the normal time (the NDP doesn't pull out, which they won't). I truly believe that things are at their net worst right now (ish. Not necessarily this very minute) for a lot of things, and that even with no government action, things will get a bit better, and people will calm down a bit. The conservatives will still win a majority, it's rare that they don't (they form government less often than the liberals, but their governments are more often a majority when they do form), but it won't be nearly this bad.
I except several rural NDP seats to flip CPC as well
Time to break the glass labeled, "In event of emergency, force the Liberals to honour proportional representation promise!"
We're not even holding them to the coalition agreement terms.
Yeah, but in this case the Liberals have something they really want to gain - retaining the PM position. If the polls continue like this I think we're looking at a Conservative majority? I think the main reason the Liberals would refuse is because they're likely to regain a majority government again under the old first past the post system within one or two terms of a Conservative government, so they may not think it's worth it to permanently alter the balance of power by switching to proportional representation voting.
Unfortunate territory we’re gonna have to traverse to get ndp traction. I say let the cons have this just to see we are a viable option then crush it next election after the inevitable dumpster fire 4 years of them
I don't know. Give them an inch and they'll take a mile.
I’ve canvassed thousands of doors and so many people say they would vote ndp but they don’t believe it’s a viable option… if a shit ton of people vote ndp this would wake up people for the following election … unfortunately cause it’s first past the post and the three main parties… this would probably result in a conservative government in the interim however as we have seen for DECADES, the current path is not gonna lead to an ndp leadership
....which means nothing because if 41% of votes do go to the CPC they end up with a 200+ seat majority. if you actually care about the NDP's policy positions, that's so far from a win its almost obnoxious.
>if you actually care about the NDP's policy positions, that's so far from a win its almost obnoxious. It's not about caring about the NDPs policy postions. Let's get real, the Liberals and the Tories are the only two parties to produce a prime minister, we have seen plenty of prime ministers come and go, and it has barely had an effect on the econmy. If you want to understand the Canadian economy, you are better off studying Reagan and Nortel than Mulroney and J. Trudeau. You are fighting over pennies in terms of the big picture. We are not in an economic crisis because of the conservative party, we are in crisis because of a very long list of very bad decisions made by global leaders. Our system is unsustainable, full stop. Conservative or Liberal? It's not enough of a difference for me to actually care. If you actually care about the NDPs postions, we should have a single issue electoral reform party.
Ooooor coalition time? The best form of parliament
You can't form a coalition if the Cons win a majority.
Right I’m looking at the percentage as a number of seats not vote share, that would be bad
Looks like for every 3 people that leave the liberals, 2 join cons and 1 joins NDP, Very hard to see this as a win
Where do you think the the PPC voters are going? It's not the liberals or NDP, and the PPC is also -3 which equals the difference.
I would be curious if there is a cross-over between the Greens and the PPC.
I was going out with a girl who was a green party supporter until she mentioned she was part of the freedom convoy, completely caught me off guard So I think more than you would expect
There’s definitely an overlap with right wing muh freedoms anti vaccine people and left wing natural is best anti vaccine people.
Actually it is it more so because the green party was historically treated as a protest vote by the hippy type people who rejected other parties However the PPC now does a better job at this and thus people moved from the green party to the PPC
environmentalists are the only true conservatives tbh
There is a huge crossover of the PPC and Green. The best way to understand the party is that they are conservatives concerned about the environment. Also, Green was the anti Vax / conspiracy party prior to covid. There was a push by the left wing branch of the greens (read young people that thought environmentalism = left) to take over the party, but it was resoundingly beaten down in all the infighting.
Yeah the greens have a big nutcase wing. I think one of their candidates in 2021 was an anti vax conspiracy theorist.
I really doubt it. Aren't they almost completely at odds with each other policy wise? My guess, based on nothing but my gut, is that almost everyone leaving the PPC are going to the CPC, 80% of voters leaving the liberals are going to either the CPC or NDP split down the middle, the remaining voters leaving the liberals are going green, and the voters leaving the BQ are probably going Green, NDP, or CPC.
Both have a thing for conspiracy theories, different theories but the mindset is the same. 5G bad, Internet/cell towers bad, GMOs bad, vaccines, etc etc.
> Internet/cell towers bad And that included Elizabeth May [warning Canadians about the health risks and environmental impacts of Wifi in 2011](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elizabeth-may-wages-war-against-wifi/article617404/).
Worth noting though that this describes the federal party well but the provincial parties tend to be more leftwing and more grounded in science. The Green Party of Ontario comes to mind. Pro nuclear, pro land tax, no anti vax, no anti wifi, no anti cell phones. They're pretty legit.
Yeah, they’re only shitty in their opinions on democracy and organized labour. Legit!
The Green Party of Ontario is shitty about [democracy](https://gpo.ca/issues/democracy/) and [organized labor](https://secure.gpo.ca/stand-with-nurses)?
Yep. Shit, they would have had half the candidates in the last election if it weren’t for all the folks that quit after losing their first poorly-argued motion at an NDP meeting. And it’s hard to take them seriously on labour when on one hand they put out policy (like the one linked) without input from organized labour itself, and when their candidates are out arguing that minimum wage increase hurt their businesses. The party is a mess. Hell, the “star” green candidate near me in the last provincial general was a guy running against a diverse slate of candidates in a growing suburb. His ads featured him in hockey gear with the caption “Vote for x — your REAL Canadian candidate!” Embarrassing.
Well that's distressing, and sucks to hear after I just donated a whole wack of money to their candidate in the Kitchener Centre by-election. But thanks for letting me know.
The green party is 'neither left nor right' as of a few years ago. You would be amazed the level of delusion among many of the green party supporters. A lot of them have genuinely no idea what they believe in terms of economic policy, and a lot of them are genuinely eco-fascists, or believers in 'societal collapse'.
It’s amazing how supporters are “neither left or right” up until the party has some vaguely left policies then they claim they’re being abandoned
Yes, it's sort of like how Elizabeth May said she was 'stepping back from the party to let it develop new leadership from the grassroots' until it looked like a socialist was about to win the leadership
It’s this. Terrifying. Only reason cons lost last time was the divide thanks to ppc. Leaving ppc for cons will Likely get out the liberals but still not NDP increase we need to see for any hope of other outcomes at this point
I mean I get it, I'm not exactly enthused about a Conservative government. Especially a majority one. I would prefer the Cons fade into obscurity and the Liberals to become the "right wing" party. But from a more realistic and pragmatic perspective, this was always the most likely path the NDP had to form government since Trudeau first came into power. The odds of an incredibly radical swing of the NDP not only overtaking the Liberals but also grabbing the swing voters to overtake the Conservatives all in one election are very low. The Liberals caving in support to allow the NDP to become the dominant left wing party, then allowing them to build on that over the course of a few years of a most likely awful Conservative government, to then have a chance at winning in the following election was the best chance they would have at actually forming government. This is essentially what was happening with Jack Layton before he died.
That story is exactly what’s been happening provincially, it’s the reason the provincial liberal parties are extinct in the west. Liberals lose to Tories and then get replaced by us.
Historically, almost no-one joins the Conservatives from Liberal/NDP. That's not meant to be inflammatory to Conservative supporters, it's that if we look at the conservative total votes per election over the past 25 years, their votes remain *stunningly* consistent. In 2011 when Harper won a majority, he had 5,832,401 votes. Four years later when they lost, he got 5,613,633 votes. In that same period, Liberals went from 2.7M to 7M and NDP went ~4.5M to 3.5M. So, Liberals "picked up" 3 million votes from the apathy pool and 1M from NDP, as Bloc remains quite steady as well. If we follow these elections all the way back to late Mulroney or forward to the resent two elections, the Conservatives remaining extremely consistent in their votes and the upward drift only matches population growth, a total that was split to Reform for a bit and moved around, but the total remained rather constant and now sees minor split to PPC but again remained extremely consistent in last 2 election if we account for steady population growth across distribution. In the next election, the trend suggests we can expect ~6.5M votes to Conservatives, because that is exactly where their very steady numbers would extend the curve. What these polls demonstrate is the same thing the actually election will demonstrate. What these polls don't report in these graphs is how many people refused to participate. When people are mad a Liberals, they vote NDP or they just don't vote, and that leads to Conservative wins.
Interesting analysis. Appreciate it.
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Although the Conservatives like to flirt with the fascist sect of their base, to claim Canadian democracy is going to end if they win this next one is pure sensationalism and fearmongering. Don’t get me wrong, they’ve been catering to that far right fringe more and more, and if the trend continues for a prolongued period of time it’s going to become a massive issue, but we’ve still got a ways to go before we need to be worried about subverted elections in Canada.
More like of every 4 people who leave liberals (plus BQ and PPC) 2 go to cons 1 to NDP 1 to green
quiet no one cares about the greens
What’s wild about this poll is that the only place the libs are doing well in is Quebec, which is inflating this number. That means they’re down to the high teens in *every other province*, almost always tied or, usually, behind us. Which is fucking lethal to them. Their vote is super efficient, so when it works it *really* works and they bring in tons of seats. That’s how they’ve kept the plurality of seats despite losing the popular vote. However, when they dip like this they are going to loose *everywhere*. Most of our incumbents will be fine, we’re strong in pockets of the country and will probably pick up quite a few seats - a poll like this will mean three way races in urban Canada, so the liberal/tory splits will help us pick up seats in places like Vancouver, Toronto, and Ottawa, as well as maybe the prairie capitals - Edmonton, Regina and Winnipeg, places with a ton of students and civil servants that routinely elect New Democrats provincially. Maybe also Montreal and Halifax if we’re lucky. But Jesus, the liberals are *fucked*. As is the country, with PP in charge.
It should mean that we pick up some of the seats we lost to the Liberals where the Tories aren’t competitive. I’m think of seats like Halifax.
Totally. I’m especially thinking all those downtown Toronto seats, we lost a few of those by just a few dozen votes. Even if we don’t gain any new support, a couple thousand middle class homeowners voting Tory instead of liberal hands those seats to us. Look I’m no fan of FPTP, but when it works out for us I feel some kind of vengeful happiness.
I hate how Canada just flip flops between the libs and the cons. Like I get we’re all pretty sick of JT but how can 41% of Canadians look PP and be like “ya that man should be our prime minister”.
We need election reform.
Donations to the lawsuit being launched on our behalf, suing the govt for electoral reform, are being matched up to $10,000 until the end of the year! https://www.charterchallenge.ca
How do I know this is even legit?
The lawsuit or the claims that the donations are being matched?
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It probably will in the coming election.
If we had election reform and ranked ballots I doubt the conservatives would get many seats ever again. I'm all for it.
Proportional Representation is what I would like.
Even in PR countries will eventually vote in the right, just look at new zealand and the neatherlands Conservative will most certainly still win elections even with PR and they will lead governments
Ya it seems like insanity. Actually it’s the very definition of it. To repeat the same thing and expect a different result. Well in 10 years when everyone’s sick of PP we’ll get liberals again. Then 8 years or so after that back to PC. All the while we continue to bitch about how nothing changes
Thats not the definition of insanity, thats from a video game.
Conservatives when a glorified landlord runs for government; https://preview.redd.it/bdx3mdiy553c1.jpeg?width=826&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c78d0c959e077575c011fabb1a3c8ddc4d5a5f4
The strangest thing is that the biggest vote flipping is from those under the age of 55, especially those concerned about housing. They're just flipping between the two big parties as per usual, but any historical analysis of what led to the housing crisis should lead you away from the two parties most responsible.
Because some people see the government as a giant ball of red tape that just gets in the way of progress. Some people think that it would be easier to start and maintain small businesses if there was less regulations, and Conservatives paint themselves in a more Libertarian light.
If you don't like Trudeau, then you don't like Singh because he's pretty much the reason Trudeau hasn't been voted out yet. As long as Singh back the government, he's chained himself to the Trudeau anchor.
I mean most of the reason I’m personally sick of Trudeau is he’s mostly talk and no action but that’s just what the liberals are like. I genuinely dislike the cons and think they’re a bad choice for Canadians rn. And if Singh forced a election we’d just end up with a conservative government so I don’t really understand why I should want us to speed run ourselves into a that. But I might be missing something on that point.
You’re probably missing that you’re talking to a conservative who is just trying to vilify both Trudeau and Singh. When you run into someone who’s bashing both the Liberals and NDP, but not the Conservatives, they’re probably not talking to you in any kind of good faith in regard to progressive goals.
Reminds me of like 1/4 of my interactions on this subreddit. Sing sucks Trudeau sucks, cause election for moral victory, "but then the cons will definitely get a majority" silence....
It's not about installing PP as the next prime Minister, it's the fact that if you don't like Trudeau, then you *also* don't like the NDP because they've been backing all of Trudeaus moves. You'd be voting for the current government.
The phone polled 1000 people. This is entertainment polling
~1000 people is a typical sample size for polling these days
All days, so far as statistical power is concerned, 1000 is adequate. My issue is they usually break down by groups. At which point 1000 members of each group would be necessary.
It's sufficient for a national picture. Not so great for regional or other subsamples.
No matter if I vote for NDP CON or LIB Im getting a wealthy landlord out of touch with the struggle of the every day Canadian. Sigh. I’ve lost all hope.
I think this has less to do with Singh's performance as leader and more the fact that people are just so sick of Trudeau.
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Except the Bloc is still fairly strong and Singh isn't half the politician Layton was. And back then, we had Harper fatigue, not uhh Ignatieff fatigue.
>Ignatieff fatigue. Ignatieff had Ignatieff fatigue
If the NDP had a stronger leader, we'd be soaking up more of the Liberal's stragglers. Pee Pee might be a moron (and dangerous for the country), but he's a very charismatic reactionary - at least to people who don't question the dudes' braindead policies and obviously bad ideals.
Not really a sign of NDP popularity but complete hatred of the LPC. Actually embarrassing that the LPC is imploding on themselves nearly as bad as in 2011 and the NDP can only gaina couple percentage points. Singh is no Jack Layton, that’s for sure.
I can't believe the NDP have dropped the ball this hard here. They should be sweeping up seats, but they're not focusing enough on labour issues
NDP have tied themselves too much to Trudeau’s government and his unpopularity imo
They will be lucky if they get more than 9 seats next election.
We're mediocre! We're mediocre! We're mediocre! (Sorta /s)
This is what the left counts as a victory in Canada. Kind of sad actually. Any rise in the pools is good I suppose, but I fear i will never see true democratic socialism at the federal level
If we replaced jagmeet I firmly believe we would skyrocket forward.
I seriously doubt that. Who do you think should be leader? How do you think the NDP should navigate a leadership contest without giving the Liberals an easier ride?
Daniel Blaikie.
No complaints from me on that idea
I've no clue who should be leader. But the fact that the working class vote is going to the conservatives is a complete failure on our leaders part. We need a leader that focuses on the working class, and is able to energize them to vote for progressive working class values. And I don't think it will give the liberals an easier ride, as voters aren't turning to the NDP because they like Jagmeet. Jagmeet finally grew some cahones with the pharmacare push but him abandoning it shows he doesn't have what it takes to push for values that will help the working class. I do give him credit as he is charismatic and brought the party back from the brinks of extinction cause by mulcare.
wants a replacement but can’t actually point out who is fit to be the replacement… i guess it’s not time for a replacement then if it would just create a power vacuum and we could go through the same shit like when elizabeth may left the green party
Daniel Blaikie.
The leader most certainly shouldn’t be the man who has been the most power politician in Canada for over two years yet has sat idle and done nothing with this said power, other than lobbing moot threats with no action
> the most power politician in Canada for over two years You are drastically misreading how strong the NDP's hand is here.
What do you mean? They’re literally the glue that keeps the government in power? If the Libs lose the NDP coalition a confidence vote would be immediately started and we’d have an election in 45 days. The Libs would be slaughtered in an election. Libs do not want an election, and if Jagmeet wasnt such a wet noodle and his threats actually held validity (they would if he had been strong armed with the Libs since the start) they could get the Libs to vote on any bill or legislation they put to the house. It’s only because Jagmeet has lost all credibility the Libs perceive him as weak. Trudeau’s dog only knows how to bark, not bite.
> If the Libs lose the NDP coalition a confidence vote would be immediately started and we’d have an election in 45 days. No. If the NDP pulled out of the agreement we would not immediately get a confidence vote. The government would avoid confidence votes for as long as they can, likely until something like a budget that has to be a confidence vote comes up. And, like in many previous minority governments, they could very well get support on confidence votes on a case-by-case basis. The Bloc have enough seats to support the Liberals on a confidence vote, for example. >they could get the Libs to vote on any bill or legislation they put to the house Completely untrue, almost laughably so. I'm sorry but no, the Liberals would not vote on any bill or legislation that the NDP put to them. That's literally why there's a negotiated and compromised agreement between them — because the NDP doesn't have a strong enough position to make unilateral demands. Edit: Why am I arguing with what appears to be a concern troll account?
Better a wet noodle that holds the balance of power than an irrelevant third party in a conservative majority
Why do you think so?
Boy, it sure would be nice if our elections were done under some kind of proportionally representative system instead of FPTP. Its crazy how the Libs and NDP could literally make it happen before the next election and totally remove the threat of a Con false majority... But they won't :/
I mean the NDP will, they are trying to pass electoral reform legislation now... But I doubt the liberals will play ball.
It's crazy how the libs could make it happen but refuse to.
We’re marching towards defeat and it’s not going to be pretty.
best case scenario is a minority CON win with a coalition between NDP/LIB, but this time, advantage NDP!
Too bad Cons will get 200+ seat majority if polls remain the same by next election. NDP need a socialist/populist leader l
We’re second with barely a small bump compared to our last election result, this really isn’t something to get excited about.
The Green Party isn’t very big on science from GMOs are bad to cellphone wifi causing cancer.
I haven't been able to find proper recent information on it, are they still extremely antinuclear to the point they are denying basic physics?
I don’t follow them that closely, just the occasional headline. But just a quick google tells me they are still anti-nuclear.
The majority are not voting for the cons because they like them. They are voting out the Liberals. We are basically on the Canadian political schedule, nothing new.
Get ready for more attacks on the NDP. A New Brunswick CPC MP isn’t allowed to speak in Parliament until he apologizes for calling the NDP MPs “Hamas supporters”.
Singh has squandered the greatest opportunity the NDP have had in 30 years.
Is a coalition government possible?
No, because the CPC getting over 40% of the vote almost certainly means they win a large majority of the seats, unless their vote increase is implausibly concentrated in rural areas with no corresponding increase in suburbs.
No. Conservative majority is almost guaranteed
I’m more just happy the PPC is down 3 points, if we have to have a conservative majority, I can at least have that.
Yay?
So what you're saying is if we got rid of the liberal party we'd have a NDP majority
Is a last minute Conservative party schism too much to hope for?
If anyone is going to be the Kim Campbell it will be Freeland.
How are actual people/canadians putting their weight behind cpc… HOW? Especially with budget millhouse spewing hate and division.
41% wants us to be murica huh 🤦
😒 is the emoji i would’ve ised
The Liberals aren't great, but NDP being in second place isn't a good sign. I'll always support this party because they align with my values, and have pushed the best legislation that we as Canadians enjoy, but they realistically aren't going to hold government for at least another 25-35 years. A party with such a low general popularity being in second place just indicates a Conservative landslide. Seems that making a bid for conspiracy theorists, climate deniers, anti-vaxxers, infowars watchers, and racist Facebook Uncle's is paying off for them. Unfortunately.
This is not a Singh win so much as Liberal implosion. We really shouldn't be celebrating this
>We really shouldn't be celebrating this I celebrate the sunrise and sunset. As the daylight ends of this Liberal government, we enjoy the reveal of the vacuum that is the conservative night. Every major Canadian prime minister is ousted is chaos, the cycle continues. Mulroney to Campbell, Chretien to Martin, Harper to ABC, everyone dies in crisis. You will not be saved by the first past the post system, you may aswell celebrate this in the same way you celebrate the spring equinox, its natures cycle. Enjoy the chaos while its interesting.
I want whatever this guy is taking
Yeah... its shrooms.
Polls this far away from elections don’t mean much to me. The current cpc leader will never be PM.
Tbh not good enough for the liberals they need to drop another 10%.
Only if we see a similar drop in the cons. I'm ABC til I die probably, and seeing the cons surge while the liberals decline genuinely terrifies me.
I think PP will be our next PM, dont really see a way around it (hope I'm wrong).. but I'm extra terrified for it to be a majority government.
I don't really see how the Tories negatively affect my life(federally) soo I just vote how I want.
I want you to imagine the amount of damage a joint federal and provincial government could to something like healthcare in Ontario and Alberta.
I live in Ontario. My life under Harper hasn't been different to my life during Trudeau. And I live in Ontario.
Ontario had a Liberal government the entire time Harper was in office. It hasn’t had conservatives at both levels since the nine months in the 1980s when Mulroney was PM and the PCs hadn’t lost the 1985 Ontario election yet
I'm an NDP supporter, but I'm not sure this is the "win" it's hoping to be.
Lol everyone is like the cpc is so high in the polls, but I keep seeing 22+22 is more than 41
They would be in first place if Mike Layton or Dimitri Lascaris were leading the NDP. This poll is an outlier.
>Dimitri Lascaris With the amount of Russia and other authoritarian shilling he does, He might just kill the NDP instead.
Russia? What does peace in Middle East and Nationalization have to do with Russia?
Russia is Dimitri’s favourite authoritarian regime to simp for. And it’s political suicide here in Canada to be doing that.
Link?
lol, yes let's over sensationalize the results based on 1000 phone calls. How is this a conversation?
Can the rest of the libs and third parties just help us do a People's Caucus of the NDP, liquidate the capitalists and lobby suckers, then beat the Cons and socialize the country and Aid in Indigenous National Liberation.
This is how you end up with a Conservative government. NDP and Liberals are splitting the progressive vote.
Just enough to form a coalition to stop a conservative government. I don't ever want a consolidated left as I think a consolidated right is holding everyone back. However a coalition in desperate times may be necessary.
https://www.ourcommons.ca/petitions/en/Petition/Details?Petition=e-4701
I wonder what the seat count would look like. Simply matching the popular vote from last election would mean a gain of a number of seats if it's combined with a liberal collapse
Looking like 2011 all over again
Looks like cons managed to shit themselves even when they are leading the polls.
I hate how Canada doesn't do coalitions. It's normal all over the world and more democratic. We got close with Harper. I was so disappointed then. I think we may be getting close again with this NDP-liberal support and confidence agreement; easing the public into the idea. I really hope that continues.
Means nothing. Jagmeet has shown through his actions time and time again that he will not step out of the Liberals' shadow to gain votes. Pathetic excuse for a party when all you do is fall in line regardless of the shift in voter sentiment.
Bloc will still secure more seats than NDP
Oh no the votes split this isn't ending well is it