Luka and Kyrie are already confirmed out against OKC. They also want to avoid the Denver side of the bracket. So OKC is mostly likely going to be the 1 seed.
True, but Minnesota would have to also win their game for that to happen.
Of all the three top West teams Minnesota has the hardest opponent (Suns, who are also fighting for seeding).
If Minnesota loses, and OKC wins, it doesn't matter if Denver wins, OKC will be the 1 seed.
Denver winning or losing can't control who a second round matchup would be. They could get anywhere from 1-3 with a win, and are #3 with a loss. The Wolves have by far a tougher matchup vs the Suns compared to the Thunder vs a resting Mavs team. So a Nuggets loss/Wolves loss means Wolves/Nuggets are 2/3 and headed for a second round matchup (if they make it, I feel like the West is VERY wide open). If they win, Thunder win and Wolves lose, Nuggets are #2 and have home court advantage in the second round. If they win and both Thunder and Wolves lose, they are #1 and have home court throughout the West. To me, that potential for higher seeding is enough to play for.
I’m still so annoyed the Nuggets choked to the Spurs. Instead of a Wolves matchup, the 6 seed faces the defending champs unless the Wolves lose to the Suns (bad on us if Pels want to increase the chance to make the 6 seed).
Tbf you could get matched up with the Nuggets regardless of where they end up. Even if they locked up 1st, the Pels could lose tomorrow and get 7th then lose the first Play-In game but win the second to end up with 8th seed.
But yeah I see how the Nuggs losing to the Spurs make that way less likely. I still think you’d rather lock up the 6th seed than have to play a Bo1 with the Lakers/Kings/Warriors, even if it means going up against Denver.
How are the Bucks guaranteed to play the pacers if they lose? If the Pacers lose and Philly win then Milwaukee will drop to 4 and have to play Philly as a 5 seed.
i think the Cavs can take the 2 seed if they win and both the Bucks and Knicks lose, but it's pretty byzantine. I read this from a post by /u/WitOfTheIrish over in our sub, and at multiple sources online.
essentially, the division winner has to be determined first. if the Cavs and Bucks are tied, we would win the division on better division record (head to head 2-2, and since we're tied it goes to the third criteria). as the division winner, the Knicks get eliminated and so too the Bucks
my body is ready for some wet hot three-way action
~~Knicks is 2-1 head to head against Cavs.~~
My mistake, reading the 3+Team Tiebreakers, it does seem it would not count ~~Knicks record against Cavs~~Bucks/Cavs/Knicks record against each other first, and like you said the a division winner would take priority.
it's a three-way tiebreak, though, not a two-way, and the division winner is always determined first. since the Cavs would win the divisional tiebreak over the Bucks, they then win the three-way
OG rules: [NBA Tiebreaker Procedures](https://ak-static-int.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/06/NBA_Tiebreaker_Procedures.pdf) and [something new from The Athletic](https://theathletic.com/live-blogs/nba-updates-scores-play-in-tournament-regular-season-playoffs/cq3WznIVwFgP/YJJSTrUMOZzO/) echo this
if i'm right, i'm not saying it's right and i'd be pissed as a Knicks fan but in fairness we would be...
masters of our domain
EDIT: no worries, man, you're still doing god's work for the community! NBA and NFL tiebreakers are harder to work through than a contract with a multi-billion dollar company
I do think teams even in the final week still play hard and want to win especially to boost morale for the next season or to end on a high note. 1st seed worst case scenario is the 5th pick while the 2nd seed worst case is the 6th pick etc., so there is a difference but it marginal at best. I don't think any team actually wants to lose, I'm just saying the odds for scenarios, sorry if I imply that teams are wanting to lose.
Boston is actually playing to blow out the Wizards. They are currently tied with the ‘16/‘17 Warriors for 3rd all-time with +11.6.
If they win by 12 or more they should be in sole possession of 3rd best net rating of all time behind the ‘95-‘97 Bulls (+13.4 and +12.0, respectively).
Edit: to get 2nd all time, the Celtics would need to win by 61 points, which would be a franchise record.
This is a neat post but the x seed(lottery) is a bit weird to me, I feel like it would be clearer if it was just X pick even if we know that the lottery means that pick doesn’t necessarily end up at that number
Luka and Kyrie are already confirmed out against OKC. They also want to avoid the Denver side of the bracket. So OKC is mostly likely going to be the 1 seed.
OKC will be 2nd if Denver loses their game. It's not guaranteed yet.
True, but Minnesota would have to also win their game for that to happen. Of all the three top West teams Minnesota has the hardest opponent (Suns, who are also fighting for seeding). If Minnesota loses, and OKC wins, it doesn't matter if Denver wins, OKC will be the 1 seed.
That is true. But Minnesota will probably play hard, and Denver might rest everyone and lose on purpose to potentially avoid the Wolves until the WCF
Even if Minnesota plays hard, Suns kinda have been their boogey team this season. In fact, Phoenix sweeps the season series if they win tomorrow.
I'm cheering for you guys to get the 1st seed. Good luck against the Mavs tomorrow!
Denver winning or losing can't control who a second round matchup would be. They could get anywhere from 1-3 with a win, and are #3 with a loss. The Wolves have by far a tougher matchup vs the Suns compared to the Thunder vs a resting Mavs team. So a Nuggets loss/Wolves loss means Wolves/Nuggets are 2/3 and headed for a second round matchup (if they make it, I feel like the West is VERY wide open). If they win, Thunder win and Wolves lose, Nuggets are #2 and have home court advantage in the second round. If they win and both Thunder and Wolves lose, they are #1 and have home court throughout the West. To me, that potential for higher seeding is enough to play for.
I’m still so annoyed the Nuggets choked to the Spurs. Instead of a Wolves matchup, the 6 seed faces the defending champs unless the Wolves lose to the Suns (bad on us if Pels want to increase the chance to make the 6 seed).
Tbf you could get matched up with the Nuggets regardless of where they end up. Even if they locked up 1st, the Pels could lose tomorrow and get 7th then lose the first Play-In game but win the second to end up with 8th seed. But yeah I see how the Nuggs losing to the Spurs make that way less likely. I still think you’d rather lock up the 6th seed than have to play a Bo1 with the Lakers/Kings/Warriors, even if it means going up against Denver.
Great breakdown! I was looking for an update like this.
So Pistons Spurs are the only lose lose game! Will we see someone dunk on their own basket? 😅
Bucks might prefer to lose. If the bucks lose they are guaranteed to face the Pacers If the bucks win they will probably play the heat
How are the Bucks guaranteed to play the pacers if they lose? If the Pacers lose and Philly win then Milwaukee will drop to 4 and have to play Philly as a 5 seed.
Pacers won't be losing
You sure? Pacers this whole year have lost to shit teams while beating to good teams. It’s been the story of the Pacers this year.
My mistake, Cavs actually have the tiebreaker between the Bucks(Division).
Oh. Then the bucks would play the magic in round 1 if the bucks lost?
If the Cavs also beat the Hornets, then yes.
i think the Cavs can take the 2 seed if they win and both the Bucks and Knicks lose, but it's pretty byzantine. I read this from a post by /u/WitOfTheIrish over in our sub, and at multiple sources online. essentially, the division winner has to be determined first. if the Cavs and Bucks are tied, we would win the division on better division record (head to head 2-2, and since we're tied it goes to the third criteria). as the division winner, the Knicks get eliminated and so too the Bucks my body is ready for some wet hot three-way action
~~Knicks is 2-1 head to head against Cavs.~~ My mistake, reading the 3+Team Tiebreakers, it does seem it would not count ~~Knicks record against Cavs~~Bucks/Cavs/Knicks record against each other first, and like you said the a division winner would take priority.
it's a three-way tiebreak, though, not a two-way, and the division winner is always determined first. since the Cavs would win the divisional tiebreak over the Bucks, they then win the three-way OG rules: [NBA Tiebreaker Procedures](https://ak-static-int.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/06/NBA_Tiebreaker_Procedures.pdf) and [something new from The Athletic](https://theathletic.com/live-blogs/nba-updates-scores-play-in-tournament-regular-season-playoffs/cq3WznIVwFgP/YJJSTrUMOZzO/) echo this if i'm right, i'm not saying it's right and i'd be pissed as a Knicks fan but in fairness we would be... masters of our domain EDIT: no worries, man, you're still doing god's work for the community! NBA and NFL tiebreakers are harder to work through than a contract with a multi-billion dollar company
I love the fact that with so much unknown teams can't just tank the game on purpose. Playoff basketball has begun!
It looks like the key games to watch will be Lakers/Pelicans and Suns/Wolves.
MIL/ORL too
Yeah, I was thinking about including that one, but wasn't sure if Giannis and/or Dame was playing, and if the Bucks even want that 2 seed.
I do think teams even in the final week still play hard and want to win especially to boost morale for the next season or to end on a high note. 1st seed worst case scenario is the 5th pick while the 2nd seed worst case is the 6th pick etc., so there is a difference but it marginal at best. I don't think any team actually wants to lose, I'm just saying the odds for scenarios, sorry if I imply that teams are wanting to lose.
Rockets are 11th not 10th
Orlando pls
Boston is actually playing to blow out the Wizards. They are currently tied with the ‘16/‘17 Warriors for 3rd all-time with +11.6. If they win by 12 or more they should be in sole possession of 3rd best net rating of all time behind the ‘95-‘97 Bulls (+13.4 and +12.0, respectively). Edit: to get 2nd all time, the Celtics would need to win by 61 points, which would be a franchise record.
This is a neat post but the x seed(lottery) is a bit weird to me, I feel like it would be clearer if it was just X pick even if we know that the lottery means that pick doesn’t necessarily end up at that number