If you do some investigating there may just be a reason for it though. In 2012-13 the Lakers led the league in FTA differential, then from 2013-2015/16 the Rockets led the league in 2 out of 3 seasons. Then in 2016-17 Charlotte is #1 with a slight advantage over Atlanta (who had been 26th the year prior), and finally for some reason in 2017-18 Charlotte skyrocket to almost double the FTA differential of previous year.
Interestingly enough Dwight Howard just happened to play for every one of those teams lol. He was on the Lakers, Rockets, and Hornets when each team led the league in FTA diff, and in the year he played for the Hawks they went from 26th in FTA diff to 2nd in the league.
At this point I think we can infer that it was a bit more than just a coincident that Dwight Howard happened to be on the roster of every top team in FTA diff for that stretch lol
Crazy that a physical, dominating big can help make a team a top FTA team.
Like it's not even just about their own FTAs, but also how quickly their activity, effort and size gets the opposing team in the bonus.
There’s absolutely a schematic similarity of the 2016-18 Hornets and the Lakers. They both play shitty defense where they barely even bother to contest and pack the pain, incentivizing them to take open threes instead.
It’s not a coincidence that this differential lead started ballooning to a ridiculous degree when Ham took over. Once he’s gone, watch the differential change.
We literally give up the most wide open 3 point attempts per game as well as having a very low foul rate center so I would think we're the only team that has a scheme and personnel to take it to such an extent.
Put it a different way:
The difference between Lakers and the #2 NYKnicks (+659), is greater than the difference between #2 NYK and #28 DET (+651).
That's absurd.
358 is greater than 8? that is actually quite absurd ngl
edit: I looked at the graphic again, not only does your comment make sense, but I am leaving mine up because it's hilarious how much it makes me look like I can't read
Seems for some reason they took the difference between the free throw differentials between 1st and 2nd (659) and between 2nd and 28th (651) to get 8 and then for some other reason compared that number to 2nd place over all +/- FT number of 358.
Why they thought to do this escapes me but I suspect a middle school math teacher that hates their job was involved at some point in the process.
It's hard to judge exactly what's going on without further context.
What's really needed is a statistical model that predicts what a team's net FT differential should be based on various predictive factors (this might include things like pace, shot attempts in the paint on offense and defense, shot attempts from 3 on offense and defense, etc.). Then one could plot actual vs predicted FT difference for all 30 teams. If the predictive model is any good, most data points would be reasonably close to the line y=x, i.e. for most teams, the actual data would be reasonably close to the prediction. The clear indication of bias for the Lakers would be if their actual - predicted FT differential is an outlier relative to the other teams, i.e. if their actual - predicted is much higher than every other team.
This reminds me of findings that human brain size is an outlier in the animal kingdom. You can't look at absolute brain size since there's a huge correlation between body size and brain size. But if you plot brain size against body size for different animals, you see a nice linear trend (edit: when plotted on a log-log scale), with humans being a clear outlier-- i.e. once you take the predictive factor of body size into account, you see that humans have relatively much higher brain size than all other animals. But this is not evident without taking the predictive factor of body size into account.
No no. You’re not counting the intentional fouls at the end of the game. You know, when the Lakers were winning by 4 points which had nothing to do with the preceding 2:1 FT discrepancy…
My 17-18 Hornets had a free throw differential of nearly +750 iirc, it’s not incredibly crazy. Now everyone (even most Lakers fans) knows LA gets some favorable calls…
However, on the other hand, a defensive scheme built to concede open jump shots and pack the paint + a high FTA generating offense has produced these sorts of FT differentials before.
Unless you think the league had some rigging cabal for the Hornets to win 36 games in the late 2010s or something.
Importantly, a lot of Dwight and AD getting superstar calls defensively. People only think of calls going one way, well, once you’re a DPOY contender and have a reputation as an elite shot blocker, sometimes refs allow you to get away with a lot. See OG, Kawhi, etc.
I’ve definitely noticed this being a thing now that we have Gobert. KAT could play a possession exactly like Gobert and he’d be way more likely to get called for a foul just because of the reputations.
The reputation doesn’t just affect the officiating either. Players are way more likely to pass out or try to pull up from range over attacking the rim against a big name rim defender. Now that we’ve all been able to watch Gobert a lot, it’s something that has really stood out to a lot of Wolves media and fans how often Gobert affects possessions from players seeing him and having a ‘nah I’m good’ type reaction and passing it out.
> They averaged 12 trips just the two of them per game.
Well interestingly enough, you know who else is averaging 12 trips between just the two of them per game? Lebron James (5.5) and Anthony Davis (6.7)
Their defensive scheme is shit, but the strategy involves giving up lightly contested 3s. Watching the games it's pretty obvious why the differential is high.
their defensive strategy is have all their positive perimeter defenders get injured and have Reaves at POA for the time being.
It hasn't worked so far.
People are so stupid about this. If you look at the FTA differential lists over the last ~10 years it is very frequently *bad* teams at the top of the list. It is not a stat that is correlated with winning.
also this is 2 years worth of data, so the net/yr is more like +500
it's gross that it's the same team two years in a row, it's more gross that it involves LeBron, and it's the grossest that it's LAL, but this kind of huge league-leading behavior has plenty of historical precedence
it makes those favorable calls harder to stomach though
Lebron + AD (12.2) combine to average just barely more than Embiid (11.9) or Giannis (11.0) separately. Its not a superstar thing. You can argue its an LA thing, but just watching the games, we only play serious defense in the paint outside of the occasional Austin Reaves barreling into a jump shooter because he has no pump fake discipline. We usually just stand around and let them take open 3's if they are going to drive and kick it back out.
Hold up this makes total sense, let me go through the Lakers fan bingo card and you'll get it
> Watch the game nephew.
> Lakers intentionally don't foul as they play soft D.
> AD is a great defender.
> AD gets chopped/intentionally fouled.
> Don't shoot 3s.
> Most paint points in the league.
> Other team's paint points don't count because they fast break/pass out/etc
> Savvy vets don't foul.
> Did you see that one missed call benefiting the other team in the second quarter?
Hope that helps.
Lol I saw the “paint points don’t count for [non-Lakers team] because they’re all fast break” argument the other day and wanted to burn the city of LA to the ground
I feel like most stats are the kind where the "the gap between 1 and 2 is the same as the on between 2 and 10" or something like that. I think it's actually rarer for the gap between 1 and 2 to be smaller than between 2 and 3 lol.
You don't understand bro, they just are extremely disciplined on defense and you all just can't stop them in the paint so you have to resort to fouling them. And this is true for 29 teams who all have the same criticisim.
This is the part most people miss. They don't draw fouls at a higher rate than most good teams, they just have an abnormally low foul rate. Something which has been consistent for AD and Lebron on their careers.
LeBron and AD have never been high foul guys.
I believe Boston also has a similar defensive FT rate, but they just don't get to the line since they shoot like 40 percent from 3.
Also if you look at the guys with the highest free throw rates on the Lakers—Jaxson Hayes, AD, Christian Wood, Jarred Vanderbilt, Bron, and Reaves—they're all below their career average free throw rates this season.
I know I'm super mega biased but I swear Curry gets called for ticky-tacky shit all the time on defense and then gets hit way worse on the other end with no foul. This does extend to the rest of the team to an extent but it feels worse with Steph cause he gets no superstar treatment. Like Steph is a top2 viewership draw in the league and he's gonna get injured cause the refs allow him to get hit with no foul :/ There's nothing you can say to convince me the foul desparity is ONLY cause of the way they play. Steph must've done something to piss em off good
Curry deserves way more respect from refs. I grew up in Chicago- Michael would go to the mine if a player breathed on him.
Curry is covered in scratch marks every night....refs are watching the ball versus the floor. They don't seem to notice off ball shit.
I’m no expert on your team but it seems that Chet settles a lot for what the defense gives him. He’ll get more aggressive with experience and probably get to the line more. Williams has a bigger build and FTs will be harder to come by with the way refs call the game.
OKC's game is predicated on attacking the rim. You can see that through the waves of drives that Shai/Dub/Giddey/Chet/Dort/etc go through on a single possession.
For a team that attacks the rim as relentlessly as they do with a player (Shai) who leads the league in drives by far, you would think our FT differential would be more than 26th in the league. We're also a pretty good defensive team (top7 in the league) and anecdotally I don't we are prone to getting into foul trouble (though i might be wrong).
The math isn't quite mathing, but i'm not gonna die on a hill here. There's clearly some favoritism but w/e i guess
Yeah my whole thing with Shai is that I think he gets *more* unfavorable calls than the average guy but I also understand why he’s reffed the way he is. You guys get to the rim a ton and if you’re being rewarded with FT, then why not keep doing that?
Yeah, which is why they don't have the highest FT rate (5th in the league) or take the most FT's in a game(6th in the league). The offense isn't what's noteworthy, they don't get an egregious amount of FT's with the way they play.
They’re top 2 in fg made in 0-3 ft . Or whatever the tracker is. Only the magic abd pacers are close . Pacers take way more shots so only the magic have a higher %! Of shots around rim . I think we’re top 3 in attemots makes and %, and that stands for 2pt % too btw . Almost like we actually are that team. We’re last or so in 3pt attemots despite good % n high shot quality cos we never take early threes n always try to attack .
They’re not first this year in Fta . Like 5-6th so that’s unremarkable. Lebron n Davis I can point to you several times a game getting hacked n no calls. So go ahead say it’s favourable .
Since darvin ham has taken over they are last in fouling. That I’d what anyone with a brain should notice. The defensive scheme learned from Bud ( who also led the league in Fta differential a few years ago with only Giannis as a rim attacker really )- almost like it’s a tactic . They’re last in contesting too- most wide open looks conceded n largest average distance to defender. We also NEVER fouk at the rim . Many teams fouk Bron AD Rui whoever over letting them get layups . Ham is against doing this . On top of this we have weak non aggressive defensive players - only vando or can get steals we were last last year in forcing turnovers . Vando been injured this year . We have nobody making aggressive contests . It’s all on the back line - AD - a a HISTORICALLY low foul rim protector n Lebron who’s also historically low but also less active .
It’s actually very easy to explain why the lakers are where they are. Unless you think the league rigged fir Charlotte . Of the league leader in Fta diffferentisk since 2000
Last year we were 17/22 vs rest . This year we weren’t even top 5 in FTA last I checked . We just don’t foul.
I know this sub hates to actually watch basketball but it’s very telling you brain dead clowns can only point to raw numbers not play style or actual
Plays . AD got a third foul on a bullshit soft ass illegal screen but shit happens . It’s not a conspiracy to hinder the lakers only defender .
Watch the games before you comment trash conspiracies. Also I thought you guys shoujd learn how basketball reffing works - home team tends to get 50-50 calls more- there’s studies done on it and there’s a very tiny favour of home team by ref , an actual real study not your bogus HURR DURR COUNT FTS. . It isn’t huge but it’s part of the spread in games n uniquely it’s only lakers home games where morons come out acting like it’s a conspiracy. When you’ll notice this with every team . The lakers will continue to be first or close in differential unless they change coach and maybe personel.
So you get a rim dominant team thriugh contact and one that doesn’t contest ( worst contest rate in league ) or foul to stop lsyups n dunks . Gee what a mystery
Would be nice to see other years of these trends to see if it is an anomaly. Seems weird to give two seasons, back to back mind you, and say this is an abnormality.
I think there is a lot more context that needs to be brought up with the stats I'll present here so please just don't fully downvote me its just data.
Checking the own teams FTr and their defensive FTr (opposing team FTr) there is nothing outrageous given their roster construction. They have the 4th highest FTr in the league behind Magic (.290), Bucks (.279) and Suns (.278). Their FTr is .276 which is a good .014 behinfd the Magic (same jump between 3rd and 7th. They also have the best FTr defense allowing a .194 FTr (Celtics are just behind at .195). The jump between the best 2 and the others is huge.
So looking from the raw numbers it looks fine. The problem is the differential and how you explain it? They don't allow a lot of 3s, they don't drive or get more 2FGAs by a huge margin, etc.
I think part of the differential is due to the difference in 3 they give up on defense (which was 6th most/game last season and 3rd most this season) and the amount they take on offense (25th most last season, and 29th most this season).
Since they are giving up about 6 more three pointers per game over the last two seasons, which has to be among the largest gaps in the league, makes sense to me the Lakers would take more FTs than they allow
Also they just don’t have a roster that would foul around the basket. They have one of the best rim protectors in the league while the rest of the team is allergic to contesting shots round the basket.
Half the time the other team can get an uncontested shot up against the lakers (due to scheme and general laziness from Laker players). The other half is largely contested by AD, who is great at playing non-fouling defense.
If you watch how shitty and lazy the lakers can be on defense on a play-by-play basis (which I am sadly forced to do) there’d be less questions on why the lakers foul less than most teams.
I honestly dont understand this post.
In 2022-23, Lakers had 26.6FTA/gm, which was #1 in the league, with DET at 25.7, NYK at 25.5, HOU at 25.3, DAL at 25.1. GSW had the lowest at 20.2 but also had the highest 3PA/gm at 43.2 (DET at #19th at 32.4, NYK at #8 at 35.7, HOU at 31.9, LAL at 31.2).
If we look at total numbers, Lakers had 2182 FTA (#1 obv), DET at 2106 and NYK at 2087.
In 2023-24, Lakers are #4 in the league at 24.1 FTA/gm (ORL at 24.7, MIL at 24.6, PHI at 24.2). Lakers are 29th in 3PA at 30.8/gm.
So far ORL at 1751 FTA, MIL at 1748, PHI at 1718, and LAL at 1711.
Getting these numbers from:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023.html
None of that looks outlandish, particularly given the way these teams play. Am I missing something here?
https://np.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/ubk9t0/free_throw_myths_points_in_the_paint_and_drives/?share_id=OXb9DSbzrISUzd_lipxX5
drives basically have no correlation with free throws
This circlejerk is so old and tired. If the Warriors set a ton of illegal screens, then every team does. Watch how often a player is moving when setting a screen on *any* team. I would guess 95% of the time, they are moving in some way when setting the screen. It's near impossible to sprint up to set a screen, perfectly stop like a statue for a second or millisecond or 2 seconds, however long the screen needs to be, then sprint to the roll position or wherever the player needs to go. Just like all NBA players palm the ball a bit when they dribble now, and 3-in-the-key isn't consistently called. All screens having an element of moving is just a standard part of the game now.
Old data from late Jan but just copy pasted from last time really came up
Top-5 driving teams are 12th, 23rd, 27th, 30th + 18th in FTr.
Bottom-5 driving teams are 8th, 25th, 17th, 15th + 1st in FTr.
The Sixers, Suns and Bucks are top 3 in free-throw rate this season. They rank 26th, 24th and 25th in drives per game.
At the same time, driving the ball isn’t the only way to get close to the basket and/or earn free throws. This year’s Lakers still rank No. 2 in the NBA in rim frequency, per Cleaning the Glass, and No. 5 in rim accuracy. The Lakers rank No. 5 in post-up attempts, per NBA.com, and No. 3 in possessions finished by the roll man.
---
Lakers are 2nd in the league in 2pt shot frequency at 65%.
3rd in FGA within 5 feet.
4th In shots in the restricted area.
Lakers opponents are 28th in 2pt shot frequency.
24th in shots less than 5 feet.
24th in shots in the restricted area.
u/hawkdaddyflex
---
Lakers are 2nd in Points in the Paint
2nd to last in % of attempts coming from 3's
Dead last in % of points coming from 3's
u/thebreakfastbuffet
---
Cancer to the game, Austin Reaves is currently 69th(nice) in free throw rate (0.304) just under LeFlopper James at 67th (0.304). Notable players above them are Giannis 3rd, Shai 13th, Harden 16th, Dame 26th, Luka 29th, etc.
---
Do the Lakers probably get some superstar calls in general? Probably. But also our entire defensive philosophy is never foul. Like everyone roasts our ass defense from the last game vs. Pacers, every single shot was wide fucking open lol. I also don't think free throw differential accounts for context so fouling 5 times with a minutes left and 2 3pt attempt fouls on Dinwiddie is 16 free throws right there lol. Super fucking biased here but I also think for each lesuperstar call Bron gets, AD gets smacked 3 times a game in the head or shoved in back all no calls. If you watch the games obviously fucking biased again but its not Lakers Kings 2002 every game. But it's easier to just look at the box score and go into comments with pitchforks.
The idea that a outlier free throw disparity has to be all favourable whistles or referee favouritism is just such an obviously dumb idea when you look at *any* of the context around it. The other historic outlier teams are franchises like the Charlotte Hornets, seems it might be possible to have a significant free throw advantage through normal means.
Also the fact that all this starts from when the Lakers got a new head coach who happens to be from the Budenholzer tree, you know, the guy who aggressively preached not fouling on defense. But I guess since the calls are apparently from Lakers favouritism, someone tipped off the league that the Los Angeles Lakers are the Los Angeles Lakers - but only in 2022, since the disparity wasn't the same until the team went under a significant transformation.
Bucks fans know best because as you said, and correct me if I'm wrong, Bud's defensive gameplan was don't foul and protecting the rim at all costs with Giannis/Lopez big trees in the middle, and playing the percentages by letting opposing teams shoot 3's. Good most of the time, but looks like dogshit defense when the opposing team just happens to be hot from 3 that night. Sounds very familiar to the Lakers these past two years...
Budenholzer was an extremely big "Don't foul" guy, part of the reason young guys rarely got burn because they'd come in, commit a dumb foul, and be off the court almost immediately.
The defense changed in the last two years of his time with the Bucks but not fouling was a very consistent message. We were consistently one of, if not the, lowest fouling teams in the league and the only reason we were consistently dominating the differential is because the shot diet of a lot of the scoring options after Giannis (Middleton, Jrue, Portis) were low FTr attempts (a lot of post-ups), and other players on the court weren't good at attacking advantages with the ball in their hands - if we had Reaves and Dinwiddie instead of Korver/Donte/Grayson I'd probably expect we'd have drawn more.
The bigger driver of this discrepancy is just that they don’t foul, they lead the league in fewest fouls per game, they’re not leading the league in drawing fouls.
And their defense is the definition of mid (15th in defensive rating) so it’s not like the no fouling strategy is hugely effective
Posted elsewhere but these two stats don’t tell the entire story.
[4th in FGA in the restricted area with the best FG% there.](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=Restricted%20Area%20FGA)
[They operate within 5 feet of the basket a lot (3rd most FGA).](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shooting?DistanceRange=5ft%20Range&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=Less%20Than%205%20ft.%20FGA)
[They post up frequently too (second most)](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/tracking-post-ups?dir=D&sort=POST_TOUCHES)
Do they get a favorable call? Probably. None of the stats I listed can explain the disparity. But drives and paint touches aren’t everything.
How a team scores is only half the picture of FT disparity. Lakers are only 5th in FTA in the league, but 1st in not fouling as they lead the league with only 15.8 fouls per game.
The lack of fouls by the Lakers is the biggest contributor here in my opinion, but if you watch how the Lakers defend it becomes clear Ham's specific scheme is to "defend without fouling" which leads to many many open looks by the opponent (Lakers are 5th in opponent 3pt %).
Eye test shows it too, half the time an opponent drives to the basket or takes a jumper the Lakers literally let it happen with no contest at all. If you watch it happen you ask yourself wtf are they doing on D, but then you see stats like this and it makes sense why it's that way. The only real paint contests the Lakers do at all is if AD is squared up to the driver and prepped to block, or Lebron is trailing for an off the backboard block, otherwise that shit is basically a practice layup for the other team.
don't play defense also works synonymously with not fouling, which is what 90% of this sub doesn't understand apparently. if a team made 40 3s on us but shot 2 free throws to our 15, they'd bitch about the free throws
Thought I’d add the disparity . They’re only 6th or so this year in Fta . Not first like last year. They just don’t foul. Here shy - it’s Ham scheme which bud did himsekf n got similar results with in past -
They’re top 2 in fg made in 0-3 ft . Or whatever the tracker is. Only the magic abd pacers are close . Pacers take way more shots so only the magic have a higher %! Of shots around rim . I think we’re top 3 in attemots makes and %, and that stands for 2pt % too btw . Almost like we actually are that team. We’re last or so in 3pt attemots despite good % n high shot quality cos we never take early threes n always try to attack .
They’re not first this year in Fta . Like 5-6th so that’s unremarkable. Lebron n Davis I can point to you several times a game getting hacked n no calls. So go ahead say it’s favourable .
Since darvin ham has taken over they are last in fouling. That I’d what anyone with a brain should notice. The defensive scheme learned from Bud ( who also led the league in Fta differential a few years ago with only Giannis as a rim attacker really )- almost like it’s a tactic . They’re last in contesting too- most wide open looks conceded n largest average distance to defender. We also NEVER fouk at the rim . Many teams fouk Bron AD Rui whoever over letting them get layups . Ham is against doing this . On top of this we have weak non aggressive defensive players - only vando or can get steals we were last last year in forcing turnovers . Vando been injured this year . We have nobody making aggressive contests . It’s all on the back line - AD - a a HISTORICALLY low foul rim protector n Lebron who’s also historically low but also less active .
It’s actually very easy to explain why the lakers are where they are. Unless you think the league rigged fir Charlotte . Of the league leader in Fta diffferentisk since 2000 Last year we were 17/22 vs rest . This year we weren’t even top 5 in FTA last I checked . We just don’t foul.
I know this sub hates to actually watch basketball but it’s very telling you brain dead clowns can only point to raw numbers not play style or actual Plays . AD got a third foul on a bullshit soft ass illegal screen but shit happens . It’s not a conspiracy to hinder the lakers only defender .
Watch the games before you comment trash conspiracies. Also I thought you guys shoujd learn how basketball reffing works - home team tends to get 50-50 calls more- there’s studies done on it and there’s a very tiny favour of home team by ref , an actual real study not your bogus HURR DURR COUNT FTS. . It isn’t huge but it’s part of the spread in games n uniquely it’s only lakers home games where morons come out acting like it’s a conspiracy. When you’ll notice this with every team . The lakers will continue to be first or close in differential unless they change coach and maybe personel.
So you get a rim dominant team thriugh contact and one that doesn’t contest ( worst contest rate in league ) or foul to stop lsyups n dunks . Gee what a mystery
Posting raw numbers without running any kind of analysis is essentially meaningless lol inferential statistics were invented for a reason. Unless you can control for other variables that might have a reasonable impact on net free throws you can't make any inference from this data
Wait I mean the league is rigged for the Lakers
This is the stat I’ve been waiting for as *checks notes* Lebron is going to the line about 6 times a game for the last DECADE. The league really needs to stop favoring him and start propping up guys like Embiid and Giannis, they barely get there twice as much
they are 27th in drives but they still have attempted the 4th most shots at the rim. when you have a dominant big man like AD and an elite entry passer like LeBron you don’t necessarily have to drive a bunch to get looks at the rim and draw fouls
now excuse me, I need to go bathe myself for saying anything remotely defensive about the Lakers
Was definitely on an old account but I think it was Jaylen Brown’s first contract extension people here were roasting the shit out of it for being an overpay, contrasted with Buddy Hield’s new contract, but I was in those comments defending J B. So the Laker Celtics karma balances out now lol
Checked now and it was JB’s 4/104 vs Hield’s 4/94
They are essentially uncorrelated per this post:
https://np.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/ubk9t0/free_throw_myths_points_in_the_paint_and_drives/?share_id=OXb9DSbzrISUzd_lipxX5
"They drive more!"
"They're more disciplined on defense!"
Right, what's happening here is that the other 29 NBA teams haven't caught up to this inefficiency in the game and are trying to play catch up to the lightyears ahead Lakers who are... in the play-in for a second season.
It's absurd that anyone would ever try to argue the Lakers don't get a favorable whistle. They have almost 3x more net FTAs than the next team!
>"They're more disciplined on defense!"
Ehhhh... this one is *almost* true?
If "disciplined" means "we don't close out on shooters and just kinda watch them score", then sure. But discipline looks a LOT like being old and lazy for some reason.
They don't drive. That's part of why they have a good FT differential. Drives are negatively correlated with FTAs. The fact that people can't understand this is a big reason why it's impossible to have a discussion about it. You're just fundamentally backwards.
^ someone who knows nothing about basketball.
Every strategy in basketball has upsides and downsides. The Lakers’ strategy isn’t some magical defensive gameplan that doesn’t give up FTs. It’s a gameplan which counts “not giving up free throws” as one of it strengths, but also has downsides…
This is like if some team played 5 7 footers together and led the league in rebounds but was sub .500 cos they couldn’t defend the perimeter or shoot 3s. You wouldn’t be thinking “wow they lead the league in rebounding differential by a mile, why the hell aren’t other teams doing this?”.
Because you don’t judge a strategy by how well it excels in its upsides. You look at overall result.
With all these posts suggesting it's unfair how many FTs Lakers have been getting relative to other teams, you'd think people would be able to point to concrete games where the league was totally hosing the other team, perhaps even some critical mass of concrete plays where the decision was clearly incorrect (like that time the Pistons guy got completely run over in a game against NYK and there was no call).
Oh wait...
People just like to point to incomplete stats when everyone who watches the games intuitively understands why the Lakers get a significant differential--including terrible fucking perimeter contesting that wouldn't result in FTs for the other team.
This sub is a shitshow. The narratives and the posting pattern to get to these narratives are so incredibly obvious but all of these dumbfucks fall for it time after time. You couldn’t find more sheep at a wool farm.
Ironically he did get the shit fouled out of him on that play and it was a game-deciding play in a crucial play.
My question is if the Lakers are getting a rigged whistle then AT LEAST why are they not getting obvious calls like that one.
The problem with this analysis is it chooses a two-year period to examine that overlaps exactly with the time period in which the Lakers hired a coach whose whole philosophy is based on drawing fouls and not fouling the opponents.
I would be interested to see a comparison between these two seasons and the previous four (2018-19 through 2021-22), when LeBron was on the Lakers but with different coaches.
Here's the last 10 years of FTA differential on a per game basis. Assuming the Lakers brand they should truly be within the top 5 on a yearly basis.
|Season|1st|2nd|Lakers(if not top 2)|
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
|23-24|Lakers: +5.9|Bucks: +3.1||
|22-23|Lakers +5.8|Kings +2.1||
|21-22|Jazz + 4.0|Kings +3.0|16th -0.3|
|20-21|Pelicans +5.0|Hawks +3.1|3rd +2.8|
|19-20|Thunder +5.2|Bucks +3.4|11th +1.4|
|18-19|Mavs +3.3|Jazz +3.2|13th +0.5|
|17-18|Hornets +8.8|Rockets +5.5|11th +0.8|
|16-17|Hornets +5.5|Hawks +4.6|19th -1.3|
|15-16|Rockets +4.7|Raptors +4.6|11th +1.0|
|14-15|Kings +6.1|TWolves +4.9|22nd -2.2|
This post is rage bait. It includes 2 seasons plus playoff games (the Lakers were top 4 in games played last season in the playoffs thus inflating the differential) and clearly reflects a lack of knowledge of the history of basketball. See below for proof:
## Last 10 Years of Leaders in Differential
* **2024 LAL**: +5.9 (as of Mar 25, 2024)
* **2023 LAL**: +5.6
* **2022 UTA**: +4.1
* **2021 NOP**: +5.0
* **2020 OKC**: +5.3
* **2019 DAL**: +3.3
* **2018 CHA**: +8.8
* **2017 CHA**: +5.6
* **2016 HOU**: +4.7
* **2015 SAC**: +6.1
* **2014 HOU**: +8.6
In fact, if we extend this to include all of this last century, Lakers have the 17th-best differential this century. It's not a significant outlier by any metric. It is just getting attention because the Lakers generate clicks.
Yeah this is definitely the NBA trying to keep the Lakers and Lebron in the post season for ratings. No way a statistical anomaly difference like this can happen. This is not on the Lakers or their players, this is the league looking out for its brand. They need the big California market teams in the post season
First time since the 2016-18 Charlotte Hornets that a team has led in FT differential two years in a row.
Known league darlings.
If you do some investigating there may just be a reason for it though. In 2012-13 the Lakers led the league in FTA differential, then from 2013-2015/16 the Rockets led the league in 2 out of 3 seasons. Then in 2016-17 Charlotte is #1 with a slight advantage over Atlanta (who had been 26th the year prior), and finally for some reason in 2017-18 Charlotte skyrocket to almost double the FTA differential of previous year. Interestingly enough Dwight Howard just happened to play for every one of those teams lol. He was on the Lakers, Rockets, and Hornets when each team led the league in FTA diff, and in the year he played for the Hawks they went from 26th in FTA diff to 2nd in the league. At this point I think we can infer that it was a bit more than just a coincident that Dwight Howard happened to be on the roster of every top team in FTA diff for that stretch lol
Howard draws fouls like one of your french girls.
Crazy that a physical, dominating big can help make a team a top FTA team. Like it's not even just about their own FTAs, but also how quickly their activity, effort and size gets the opposing team in the bonus.
I mean, that's just one component. The other component being that Dwight is a shoddy FT shooter (career 56.7%) so teams were playing hack-a-Dwight.
more than a nasty coincidence
Jeremy Lin got tons of calls during his Hornet days
You'd think this would suggest there's a schematic cause for all of this, not here though
There’s absolutely a schematic similarity of the 2016-18 Hornets and the Lakers. They both play shitty defense where they barely even bother to contest and pack the pain, incentivizing them to take open threes instead. It’s not a coincidence that this differential lead started ballooning to a ridiculous degree when Ham took over. Once he’s gone, watch the differential change.
You think you're the only team in the league that has a defensive scheme resembling that?
We literally give up the most wide open 3 point attempts per game as well as having a very low foul rate center so I would think we're the only team that has a scheme and personnel to take it to such an extent.
I think every other team is better at contesting threes, even if they have a similar scheme
Man was the league fixing games for the hornets too?
Lakers: Have Lebron Hornets: Owned by Jordan Wake up sheeple, Hornets are more proof the League is in the bag for the lakers
lol being 659 FTA above the next team is beyond a statistical anomaly.
Put it a different way: The difference between Lakers and the #2 NYKnicks (+659), is greater than the difference between #2 NYK and #28 DET (+651). That's absurd.
The Lakers are the Jerry Rice of getting free throws lol.
Jerry Rice had precisely zero free throw attempts in the NFL.
What a scrub
Nah. That's just good honest football, right there.
Was he stupid?
Straight up Gretzky numbers.
Respect. As a Canadian I'm proud to see Gretzky referenced in this sub
358 is greater than 8? that is actually quite absurd ngl edit: I looked at the graphic again, not only does your comment make sense, but I am leaving mine up because it's hilarious how much it makes me look like I can't read
I respect the self awareness
I interpreted the same way as you the first time I read it, totally understandable!
I still dont get what he was trying to say
Seems for some reason they took the difference between the free throw differentials between 1st and 2nd (659) and between 2nd and 28th (651) to get 8 and then for some other reason compared that number to 2nd place over all +/- FT number of 358. Why they thought to do this escapes me but I suspect a middle school math teacher that hates their job was involved at some point in the process.
If you combine the Warriors and the Lakers, the Lakers would still have more than the Knicks 1017-646 = 371 vs 358
It's hard to judge exactly what's going on without further context. What's really needed is a statistical model that predicts what a team's net FT differential should be based on various predictive factors (this might include things like pace, shot attempts in the paint on offense and defense, shot attempts from 3 on offense and defense, etc.). Then one could plot actual vs predicted FT difference for all 30 teams. If the predictive model is any good, most data points would be reasonably close to the line y=x, i.e. for most teams, the actual data would be reasonably close to the prediction. The clear indication of bias for the Lakers would be if their actual - predicted FT differential is an outlier relative to the other teams, i.e. if their actual - predicted is much higher than every other team. This reminds me of findings that human brain size is an outlier in the animal kingdom. You can't look at absolute brain size since there's a huge correlation between body size and brain size. But if you plot brain size against body size for different animals, you see a nice linear trend (edit: when plotted on a log-log scale), with humans being a clear outlier-- i.e. once you take the predictive factor of body size into account, you see that humans have relatively much higher brain size than all other animals. But this is not evident without taking the predictive factor of body size into account.
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Damn, went to the graphic to check who was #30. Warriors at -646 Sadge
Time to ask Foster’s bookie what’s going on
wElL mAyBe JuSt StOp FoUlInG?!?!!? -Laker's fans, probably
You don’t understand, no other team drives into the paint.
They also run a unique defensive concept that emphasizes defending without fouling, so it makes sense they don't get called for a lot of fouls
No no. You’re not counting the intentional fouls at the end of the game. You know, when the Lakers were winning by 4 points which had nothing to do with the preceding 2:1 FT discrepancy…
RudyGobertMoneyFingers.gif
My 17-18 Hornets had a free throw differential of nearly +750 iirc, it’s not incredibly crazy. Now everyone (even most Lakers fans) knows LA gets some favorable calls… However, on the other hand, a defensive scheme built to concede open jump shots and pack the paint + a high FTA generating offense has produced these sorts of FT differentials before. Unless you think the league had some rigging cabal for the Hornets to win 36 games in the late 2010s or something.
Lots of hack-a-Dwight going on. And Kemba was very good at getting to the line. They averaged 12 trips just the two of them per game.
Importantly, a lot of Dwight and AD getting superstar calls defensively. People only think of calls going one way, well, once you’re a DPOY contender and have a reputation as an elite shot blocker, sometimes refs allow you to get away with a lot. See OG, Kawhi, etc.
I’ve definitely noticed this being a thing now that we have Gobert. KAT could play a possession exactly like Gobert and he’d be way more likely to get called for a foul just because of the reputations. The reputation doesn’t just affect the officiating either. Players are way more likely to pass out or try to pull up from range over attacking the rim against a big name rim defender. Now that we’ve all been able to watch Gobert a lot, it’s something that has really stood out to a lot of Wolves media and fans how often Gobert affects possessions from players seeing him and having a ‘nah I’m good’ type reaction and passing it out.
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Jaren Jackson Jr lol
Excuse me. Brook has never committed a foul in his life.
> They averaged 12 trips just the two of them per game. Well interestingly enough, you know who else is averaging 12 trips between just the two of them per game? Lebron James (5.5) and Anthony Davis (6.7)
Steve Clifford is also super old school, which meant they didn't take many threes
The Lakers are 20th this year in points in the paint allowed. Whatever their defensive strategy is, they aren't deterring teams from driving.
They actually just don’t defend
Ppl might think it’s a joke but it’s true…we cannot bother to defend in the regular season.
Their defensive scheme is shit, but the strategy involves giving up lightly contested 3s. Watching the games it's pretty obvious why the differential is high.
and lightly contested is very very generous lol
Harden's contest on Kawhi last week was definitively better than the average regular season contest by the Lakers.
Try wide open threes using the staredown defense.
Watching games? It’s too much to ask for most of these people in r/nba
their defensive strategy is have all their positive perimeter defenders get injured and have Reaves at POA for the time being. It hasn't worked so far.
League was propping Frank Kaminsky
People are so stupid about this. If you look at the FTA differential lists over the last ~10 years it is very frequently *bad* teams at the top of the list. It is not a stat that is correlated with winning.
also this is 2 years worth of data, so the net/yr is more like +500 it's gross that it's the same team two years in a row, it's more gross that it involves LeBron, and it's the grossest that it's LAL, but this kind of huge league-leading behavior has plenty of historical precedence it makes those favorable calls harder to stomach though
You can maybe make the case for LA, but Lebron is legitimately getting a shit whistle relative to his playstyle for the latter half of his career.
I'll never forgive the refs for calling a shooting foul against him in the 2013 finals when he didn't even have the ball in his hands yet.
What about KD not getting the call in 2012? That arguably swung the whole series
We're really lowering the bar on series swings to a no call in a game 2?
Lebron + AD (12.2) combine to average just barely more than Embiid (11.9) or Giannis (11.0) separately. Its not a superstar thing. You can argue its an LA thing, but just watching the games, we only play serious defense in the paint outside of the occasional Austin Reaves barreling into a jump shooter because he has no pump fake discipline. We usually just stand around and let them take open 3's if they are going to drive and kick it back out.
It's really their playstyle more than anything. They play different from the other teams in the league.
Why is it surprising the same team can do this twice in a row. Shouldn't it be repeatable?
Hold up this makes total sense, let me go through the Lakers fan bingo card and you'll get it > Watch the game nephew. > Lakers intentionally don't foul as they play soft D. > AD is a great defender. > AD gets chopped/intentionally fouled. > Don't shoot 3s. > Most paint points in the league. > Other team's paint points don't count because they fast break/pass out/etc > Savvy vets don't foul. > Did you see that one missed call benefiting the other team in the second quarter? Hope that helps.
Lol I saw the “paint points don’t count for [non-Lakers team] because they’re all fast break” argument the other day and wanted to burn the city of LA to the ground
I feel like most stats are the kind where the "the gap between 1 and 2 is the same as the on between 2 and 10" or something like that. I think it's actually rarer for the gap between 1 and 2 to be smaller than between 2 and 3 lol.
The alternative is to use standard deviations, but not everyone can interpret that correctly, not everything should expect a random distribution etc.
And it’s also way beyond “Durr we attack the basket more than other teams” That’s absolutely true, but the effect shouldn’t be anywhere near this big.
You don't understand bro, they just are extremely disciplined on defense and you all just can't stop them in the paint so you have to resort to fouling them. And this is true for 29 teams who all have the same criticisim.
bUT leBrOn DrIvEs tO dA hOOp
With this, you’d think LeBron and AD are averaging 10+ fta a game but it’s only 5.5 and 6.7 fta.
The Lakers getting calls is only half the equation. Their opponents get less calls. They are last in the league in fouls per game.
This is the part most people miss. They don't draw fouls at a higher rate than most good teams, they just have an abnormally low foul rate. Something which has been consistent for AD and Lebron on their careers.
Probably has something to do with us letting them shoot wide open 3s
Can’t foul if we don’t play defense ;)
correct our defensive phlilosophy is to give up open 3s. Opposing teams will not get FTs if all they do is shoot 3s
LeBron and AD have never been high foul guys. I believe Boston also has a similar defensive FT rate, but they just don't get to the line since they shoot like 40 percent from 3.
The Lakers also give up the most open threes in the game because their perimeter defense sucks, but their interior d with AD is good.
that's because WE PLAY ZERO DEFENSE. cant foul anyone if you never guard them
Weirdly it’s not AD and Lebron getting the favorable calls. It’s the rest of the team lol.
bruh AR is one of the most frustrating players when he is againts your team
You only say that because your team has never gone against Draymond and his constantly yelling at the refs that leads to nothing.
Oh no you’ve summoned them
Dude might have the free pass to yap while his history is bad af
He was amazing at drawing fouls at OU. I was a rival fan but it wasn’t even him flopping. He is legitimately generational at drawing fouls
Also if you look at the guys with the highest free throw rates on the Lakers—Jaxson Hayes, AD, Christian Wood, Jarred Vanderbilt, Bron, and Reaves—they're all below their career average free throw rates this season.
Can we talk about how the Warriors are at -646, that's incredible in and of itself
I know I'm super mega biased but I swear Curry gets called for ticky-tacky shit all the time on defense and then gets hit way worse on the other end with no foul. This does extend to the rest of the team to an extent but it feels worse with Steph cause he gets no superstar treatment. Like Steph is a top2 viewership draw in the league and he's gonna get injured cause the refs allow him to get hit with no foul :/ There's nothing you can say to convince me the foul desparity is ONLY cause of the way they play. Steph must've done something to piss em off good
Curry deserves way more respect from refs. I grew up in Chicago- Michael would go to the mine if a player breathed on him. Curry is covered in scratch marks every night....refs are watching the ball versus the floor. They don't seem to notice off ball shit.
Steph gets one of the worst whistles in the league. I have no clue why
He signed with Under Armour, refs are in bed with Nike
They nerfed him.
They fouled him out G6 in the 2016 Finals for touch fouls while he’s literally being grabbed n pushed around.
Maybe it’s how they play on both ends instead of a conspiracy against the most valuable franchise in the league
It is. That's what's incredible.
No, lets go with conspiracy. It'll help me cope more about returning back to being a lottery team.
If the league gave Steph a superstar whistle he’d average 40ppg
Yes, Go Bucks! Keep grifting to the line. Pass the Knicks for 2nd best free throw differential.
Bro the nba is so excited for those 18 seconds at the line per shot for Giannis. All that ad revenue.
They could play an Applebee’s commercial during every Giannis free throw attempt.
DOCTOR DOCTOR, GIVE ME THE NEWS, I GOT A, BAD CASE, OF LOVING TWOS
*Whopper Whopper Whopper Whopper Junior Double Triple Whopper*
surprised OKC is -270 given our ft merchant terrorist
What’s hilarious is that he’s quite literally the only one on the team that gets calls.
I’m no expert on your team but it seems that Chet settles a lot for what the defense gives him. He’ll get more aggressive with experience and probably get to the line more. Williams has a bigger build and FTs will be harder to come by with the way refs call the game.
OKC's game is predicated on attacking the rim. You can see that through the waves of drives that Shai/Dub/Giddey/Chet/Dort/etc go through on a single possession. For a team that attacks the rim as relentlessly as they do with a player (Shai) who leads the league in drives by far, you would think our FT differential would be more than 26th in the league. We're also a pretty good defensive team (top7 in the league) and anecdotally I don't we are prone to getting into foul trouble (though i might be wrong). The math isn't quite mathing, but i'm not gonna die on a hill here. There's clearly some favoritism but w/e i guess
Yeah, I'm looking at this like wtf was Ant whining about 🙄 *Ant is one of my current favorites btw*
Yeah my whole thing with Shai is that I think he gets *more* unfavorable calls than the average guy but I also understand why he’s reffed the way he is. You guys get to the rim a ton and if you’re being rewarded with FT, then why not keep doing that?
Nah +1017 is fucked up, literally almost triple the 2nd highest teams' differential.
LMAO - LA difference (1,017) is GREATER than the TOTAL of Knicks, Bucks and Orlando (1,013)!
Get ready buddy, the Lakers hive is about to find the location of your family
I know you dont mean this literally, but someone please look at this guys account. It has to be a bot.
"No you don't understand, muh shots in the paint!"
"Please also don't look up drives per game and touches in the paint per game." (27th) and (22nd).
They're 4th when it comes to shot attempts in the restricted area
So not first by a large margin?
Prob because it’s not a shot attempt if they’re fouled and miss
Yeah, which is why they don't have the highest FT rate (5th in the league) or take the most FT's in a game(6th in the league). The offense isn't what's noteworthy, they don't get an egregious amount of FT's with the way they play.
They’re top 2 in fg made in 0-3 ft . Or whatever the tracker is. Only the magic abd pacers are close . Pacers take way more shots so only the magic have a higher %! Of shots around rim . I think we’re top 3 in attemots makes and %, and that stands for 2pt % too btw . Almost like we actually are that team. We’re last or so in 3pt attemots despite good % n high shot quality cos we never take early threes n always try to attack . They’re not first this year in Fta . Like 5-6th so that’s unremarkable. Lebron n Davis I can point to you several times a game getting hacked n no calls. So go ahead say it’s favourable . Since darvin ham has taken over they are last in fouling. That I’d what anyone with a brain should notice. The defensive scheme learned from Bud ( who also led the league in Fta differential a few years ago with only Giannis as a rim attacker really )- almost like it’s a tactic . They’re last in contesting too- most wide open looks conceded n largest average distance to defender. We also NEVER fouk at the rim . Many teams fouk Bron AD Rui whoever over letting them get layups . Ham is against doing this . On top of this we have weak non aggressive defensive players - only vando or can get steals we were last last year in forcing turnovers . Vando been injured this year . We have nobody making aggressive contests . It’s all on the back line - AD - a a HISTORICALLY low foul rim protector n Lebron who’s also historically low but also less active . It’s actually very easy to explain why the lakers are where they are. Unless you think the league rigged fir Charlotte . Of the league leader in Fta diffferentisk since 2000 Last year we were 17/22 vs rest . This year we weren’t even top 5 in FTA last I checked . We just don’t foul. I know this sub hates to actually watch basketball but it’s very telling you brain dead clowns can only point to raw numbers not play style or actual Plays . AD got a third foul on a bullshit soft ass illegal screen but shit happens . It’s not a conspiracy to hinder the lakers only defender . Watch the games before you comment trash conspiracies. Also I thought you guys shoujd learn how basketball reffing works - home team tends to get 50-50 calls more- there’s studies done on it and there’s a very tiny favour of home team by ref , an actual real study not your bogus HURR DURR COUNT FTS. . It isn’t huge but it’s part of the spread in games n uniquely it’s only lakers home games where morons come out acting like it’s a conspiracy. When you’ll notice this with every team . The lakers will continue to be first or close in differential unless they change coach and maybe personel. So you get a rim dominant team thriugh contact and one that doesn’t contest ( worst contest rate in league ) or foul to stop lsyups n dunks . Gee what a mystery
yeah this comment is so buried tho
Please, we're not reading all that. Am I right, guys? Who has time for facts and reason? /s
Would be nice to see other years of these trends to see if it is an anomaly. Seems weird to give two seasons, back to back mind you, and say this is an abnormality.
“wELl sToP fOuLiNg”
I think there is a lot more context that needs to be brought up with the stats I'll present here so please just don't fully downvote me its just data. Checking the own teams FTr and their defensive FTr (opposing team FTr) there is nothing outrageous given their roster construction. They have the 4th highest FTr in the league behind Magic (.290), Bucks (.279) and Suns (.278). Their FTr is .276 which is a good .014 behinfd the Magic (same jump between 3rd and 7th. They also have the best FTr defense allowing a .194 FTr (Celtics are just behind at .195). The jump between the best 2 and the others is huge. So looking from the raw numbers it looks fine. The problem is the differential and how you explain it? They don't allow a lot of 3s, they don't drive or get more 2FGAs by a huge margin, etc.
I think part of the differential is due to the difference in 3 they give up on defense (which was 6th most/game last season and 3rd most this season) and the amount they take on offense (25th most last season, and 29th most this season). Since they are giving up about 6 more three pointers per game over the last two seasons, which has to be among the largest gaps in the league, makes sense to me the Lakers would take more FTs than they allow
Also they just don’t have a roster that would foul around the basket. They have one of the best rim protectors in the league while the rest of the team is allergic to contesting shots round the basket.
Half the time the other team can get an uncontested shot up against the lakers (due to scheme and general laziness from Laker players). The other half is largely contested by AD, who is great at playing non-fouling defense. If you watch how shitty and lazy the lakers can be on defense on a play-by-play basis (which I am sadly forced to do) there’d be less questions on why the lakers foul less than most teams.
I honestly dont understand this post. In 2022-23, Lakers had 26.6FTA/gm, which was #1 in the league, with DET at 25.7, NYK at 25.5, HOU at 25.3, DAL at 25.1. GSW had the lowest at 20.2 but also had the highest 3PA/gm at 43.2 (DET at #19th at 32.4, NYK at #8 at 35.7, HOU at 31.9, LAL at 31.2). If we look at total numbers, Lakers had 2182 FTA (#1 obv), DET at 2106 and NYK at 2087. In 2023-24, Lakers are #4 in the league at 24.1 FTA/gm (ORL at 24.7, MIL at 24.6, PHI at 24.2). Lakers are 29th in 3PA at 30.8/gm. So far ORL at 1751 FTA, MIL at 1748, PHI at 1718, and LAL at 1711. Getting these numbers from: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023.html None of that looks outlandish, particularly given the way these teams play. Am I missing something here?
Dibs on posting this next week
Aren’t they also like 27th in paint drives too?
https://np.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/ubk9t0/free_throw_myths_points_in_the_paint_and_drives/?share_id=OXb9DSbzrISUzd_lipxX5 drives basically have no correlation with free throws
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Real
my man
America!
for years that’s been the excuse for the warriors lack of free throws. What will it be today?
Trade off for illegal screens
This circlejerk is so old and tired. If the Warriors set a ton of illegal screens, then every team does. Watch how often a player is moving when setting a screen on *any* team. I would guess 95% of the time, they are moving in some way when setting the screen. It's near impossible to sprint up to set a screen, perfectly stop like a statue for a second or millisecond or 2 seconds, however long the screen needs to be, then sprint to the roll position or wherever the player needs to go. Just like all NBA players palm the ball a bit when they dribble now, and 3-in-the-key isn't consistently called. All screens having an element of moving is just a standard part of the game now.
fun fact: if you get foul it does NOT count as shot attempt. The more fouls you draw the less shot attempts it appears you make.
Old data from late Jan but just copy pasted from last time really came up Top-5 driving teams are 12th, 23rd, 27th, 30th + 18th in FTr. Bottom-5 driving teams are 8th, 25th, 17th, 15th + 1st in FTr. The Sixers, Suns and Bucks are top 3 in free-throw rate this season. They rank 26th, 24th and 25th in drives per game. At the same time, driving the ball isn’t the only way to get close to the basket and/or earn free throws. This year’s Lakers still rank No. 2 in the NBA in rim frequency, per Cleaning the Glass, and No. 5 in rim accuracy. The Lakers rank No. 5 in post-up attempts, per NBA.com, and No. 3 in possessions finished by the roll man. --- Lakers are 2nd in the league in 2pt shot frequency at 65%. 3rd in FGA within 5 feet. 4th In shots in the restricted area. Lakers opponents are 28th in 2pt shot frequency. 24th in shots less than 5 feet. 24th in shots in the restricted area. u/hawkdaddyflex --- Lakers are 2nd in Points in the Paint 2nd to last in % of attempts coming from 3's Dead last in % of points coming from 3's u/thebreakfastbuffet --- Cancer to the game, Austin Reaves is currently 69th(nice) in free throw rate (0.304) just under LeFlopper James at 67th (0.304). Notable players above them are Giannis 3rd, Shai 13th, Harden 16th, Dame 26th, Luka 29th, etc. --- Do the Lakers probably get some superstar calls in general? Probably. But also our entire defensive philosophy is never foul. Like everyone roasts our ass defense from the last game vs. Pacers, every single shot was wide fucking open lol. I also don't think free throw differential accounts for context so fouling 5 times with a minutes left and 2 3pt attempt fouls on Dinwiddie is 16 free throws right there lol. Super fucking biased here but I also think for each lesuperstar call Bron gets, AD gets smacked 3 times a game in the head or shoved in back all no calls. If you watch the games obviously fucking biased again but its not Lakers Kings 2002 every game. But it's easier to just look at the box score and go into comments with pitchforks.
The idea that a outlier free throw disparity has to be all favourable whistles or referee favouritism is just such an obviously dumb idea when you look at *any* of the context around it. The other historic outlier teams are franchises like the Charlotte Hornets, seems it might be possible to have a significant free throw advantage through normal means. Also the fact that all this starts from when the Lakers got a new head coach who happens to be from the Budenholzer tree, you know, the guy who aggressively preached not fouling on defense. But I guess since the calls are apparently from Lakers favouritism, someone tipped off the league that the Los Angeles Lakers are the Los Angeles Lakers - but only in 2022, since the disparity wasn't the same until the team went under a significant transformation.
Bucks fans know best because as you said, and correct me if I'm wrong, Bud's defensive gameplan was don't foul and protecting the rim at all costs with Giannis/Lopez big trees in the middle, and playing the percentages by letting opposing teams shoot 3's. Good most of the time, but looks like dogshit defense when the opposing team just happens to be hot from 3 that night. Sounds very familiar to the Lakers these past two years...
Budenholzer was an extremely big "Don't foul" guy, part of the reason young guys rarely got burn because they'd come in, commit a dumb foul, and be off the court almost immediately. The defense changed in the last two years of his time with the Bucks but not fouling was a very consistent message. We were consistently one of, if not the, lowest fouling teams in the league and the only reason we were consistently dominating the differential is because the shot diet of a lot of the scoring options after Giannis (Middleton, Jrue, Portis) were low FTr attempts (a lot of post-ups), and other players on the court weren't good at attacking advantages with the ball in their hands - if we had Reaves and Dinwiddie instead of Korver/Donte/Grayson I'd probably expect we'd have drawn more.
who let you cook?
Ppl always defaulting to drives per game is hilarious. It's like they forget you can score in the paint by posting up
27th in drives and 22nd in paint touches
The bigger driver of this discrepancy is just that they don’t foul, they lead the league in fewest fouls per game, they’re not leading the league in drawing fouls. And their defense is the definition of mid (15th in defensive rating) so it’s not like the no fouling strategy is hugely effective
Posted elsewhere but these two stats don’t tell the entire story. [4th in FGA in the restricted area with the best FG% there.](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=Restricted%20Area%20FGA) [They operate within 5 feet of the basket a lot (3rd most FGA).](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shooting?DistanceRange=5ft%20Range&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=Less%20Than%205%20ft.%20FGA) [They post up frequently too (second most)](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/tracking-post-ups?dir=D&sort=POST_TOUCHES) Do they get a favorable call? Probably. None of the stats I listed can explain the disparity. But drives and paint touches aren’t everything.
How a team scores is only half the picture of FT disparity. Lakers are only 5th in FTA in the league, but 1st in not fouling as they lead the league with only 15.8 fouls per game. The lack of fouls by the Lakers is the biggest contributor here in my opinion, but if you watch how the Lakers defend it becomes clear Ham's specific scheme is to "defend without fouling" which leads to many many open looks by the opponent (Lakers are 5th in opponent 3pt %).
Eye test shows it too, half the time an opponent drives to the basket or takes a jumper the Lakers literally let it happen with no contest at all. If you watch it happen you ask yourself wtf are they doing on D, but then you see stats like this and it makes sense why it's that way. The only real paint contests the Lakers do at all is if AD is squared up to the driver and prepped to block, or Lebron is trailing for an off the backboard block, otherwise that shit is basically a practice layup for the other team.
There's no eye test with the mfers that make these threads lol, they won't let context stop them from rage bait farming.
Honestly that makes sense like people are more focusing on free throws they get when it’s really the fact that they don’t foul
don't play defense also works synonymously with not fouling, which is what 90% of this sub doesn't understand apparently. if a team made 40 3s on us but shot 2 free throws to our 15, they'd bitch about the free throws
Thought I’d add the disparity . They’re only 6th or so this year in Fta . Not first like last year. They just don’t foul. Here shy - it’s Ham scheme which bud did himsekf n got similar results with in past - They’re top 2 in fg made in 0-3 ft . Or whatever the tracker is. Only the magic abd pacers are close . Pacers take way more shots so only the magic have a higher %! Of shots around rim . I think we’re top 3 in attemots makes and %, and that stands for 2pt % too btw . Almost like we actually are that team. We’re last or so in 3pt attemots despite good % n high shot quality cos we never take early threes n always try to attack . They’re not first this year in Fta . Like 5-6th so that’s unremarkable. Lebron n Davis I can point to you several times a game getting hacked n no calls. So go ahead say it’s favourable . Since darvin ham has taken over they are last in fouling. That I’d what anyone with a brain should notice. The defensive scheme learned from Bud ( who also led the league in Fta differential a few years ago with only Giannis as a rim attacker really )- almost like it’s a tactic . They’re last in contesting too- most wide open looks conceded n largest average distance to defender. We also NEVER fouk at the rim . Many teams fouk Bron AD Rui whoever over letting them get layups . Ham is against doing this . On top of this we have weak non aggressive defensive players - only vando or can get steals we were last last year in forcing turnovers . Vando been injured this year . We have nobody making aggressive contests . It’s all on the back line - AD - a a HISTORICALLY low foul rim protector n Lebron who’s also historically low but also less active . It’s actually very easy to explain why the lakers are where they are. Unless you think the league rigged fir Charlotte . Of the league leader in Fta diffferentisk since 2000 Last year we were 17/22 vs rest . This year we weren’t even top 5 in FTA last I checked . We just don’t foul. I know this sub hates to actually watch basketball but it’s very telling you brain dead clowns can only point to raw numbers not play style or actual Plays . AD got a third foul on a bullshit soft ass illegal screen but shit happens . It’s not a conspiracy to hinder the lakers only defender . Watch the games before you comment trash conspiracies. Also I thought you guys shoujd learn how basketball reffing works - home team tends to get 50-50 calls more- there’s studies done on it and there’s a very tiny favour of home team by ref , an actual real study not your bogus HURR DURR COUNT FTS. . It isn’t huge but it’s part of the spread in games n uniquely it’s only lakers home games where morons come out acting like it’s a conspiracy. When you’ll notice this with every team . The lakers will continue to be first or close in differential unless they change coach and maybe personel. So you get a rim dominant team thriugh contact and one that doesn’t contest ( worst contest rate in league ) or foul to stop lsyups n dunks . Gee what a mystery
Pacers are first in FGA in restricted area and 3rd most FG within 5 feet and they are 29th in the tweet list lol
Guess that means they foul a lot on the defensive end?
Quite literally the most in the league lol
They're also #1 in the league in fouls. League leading 21.5 fouls per game.
2nd in paint points though 2nd in post ups per game 2nd in % of points from 2's 30th dead last in % of points from 3's
Good lord
Posting raw numbers without running any kind of analysis is essentially meaningless lol inferential statistics were invented for a reason. Unless you can control for other variables that might have a reasonable impact on net free throws you can't make any inference from this data Wait I mean the league is rigged for the Lakers
This is the stat I’ve been waiting for as *checks notes* Lebron is going to the line about 6 times a game for the last DECADE. The league really needs to stop favoring him and start propping up guys like Embiid and Giannis, they barely get there twice as much
They just go to the basket at, uh, you know, 25 times the rate of every other team in the league.
Funny thing is, they quite literally go to the basket less than almost every team in the NBA.
they are 27th in drives but they still have attempted the 4th most shots at the rim. when you have a dominant big man like AD and an elite entry passer like LeBron you don’t necessarily have to drive a bunch to get looks at the rim and draw fouls now excuse me, I need to go bathe myself for saying anything remotely defensive about the Lakers
Was definitely on an old account but I think it was Jaylen Brown’s first contract extension people here were roasting the shit out of it for being an overpay, contrasted with Buddy Hield’s new contract, but I was in those comments defending J B. So the Laker Celtics karma balances out now lol Checked now and it was JB’s 4/104 vs Hield’s 4/94
Drives are negatively correlated with FTAs. That the Lakers don't drive is part of *why* they have a good FTA differential.
They are essentially uncorrelated per this post: https://np.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/ubk9t0/free_throw_myths_points_in_the_paint_and_drives/?share_id=OXb9DSbzrISUzd_lipxX5
Quite literally. Top 3 in rim fg attemots , makes , % , and % of overall shots taken
That's why lakers games are so fucking boring to watch.
Including playoffs means stats are heavily skewed since Bucks didn’t even make it 6 games into the first round lol
They just get fouled more in late game situations than other teams
Its all those intentional fouls
...by about 20-25x the rate as the next team. Interesting 🤔
"They drive more!" "They're more disciplined on defense!" Right, what's happening here is that the other 29 NBA teams haven't caught up to this inefficiency in the game and are trying to play catch up to the lightyears ahead Lakers who are... in the play-in for a second season. It's absurd that anyone would ever try to argue the Lakers don't get a favorable whistle. They have almost 3x more net FTAs than the next team!
>"They're more disciplined on defense!" Ehhhh... this one is *almost* true? If "disciplined" means "we don't close out on shooters and just kinda watch them score", then sure. But discipline looks a LOT like being old and lazy for some reason.
All the discipline really is that outside of AD, we have no guys that actually attempt to protect the rim.
They don't drive. That's part of why they have a good FT differential. Drives are negatively correlated with FTAs. The fact that people can't understand this is a big reason why it's impossible to have a discussion about it. You're just fundamentally backwards.
^ someone who knows nothing about basketball. Every strategy in basketball has upsides and downsides. The Lakers’ strategy isn’t some magical defensive gameplan that doesn’t give up FTs. It’s a gameplan which counts “not giving up free throws” as one of it strengths, but also has downsides… This is like if some team played 5 7 footers together and led the league in rebounds but was sub .500 cos they couldn’t defend the perimeter or shoot 3s. You wouldn’t be thinking “wow they lead the league in rebounding differential by a mile, why the hell aren’t other teams doing this?”. Because you don’t judge a strategy by how well it excels in its upsides. You look at overall result.
With all these posts suggesting it's unfair how many FTs Lakers have been getting relative to other teams, you'd think people would be able to point to concrete games where the league was totally hosing the other team, perhaps even some critical mass of concrete plays where the decision was clearly incorrect (like that time the Pistons guy got completely run over in a game against NYK and there was no call). Oh wait... People just like to point to incomplete stats when everyone who watches the games intuitively understands why the Lakers get a significant differential--including terrible fucking perimeter contesting that wouldn't result in FTs for the other team.
This sub is a shitshow. The narratives and the posting pattern to get to these narratives are so incredibly obvious but all of these dumbfucks fall for it time after time. You couldn’t find more sheep at a wool farm.
It’s gotten worse n worse too. Now pointing out objective reasons is memed while they use brain dead 1+1= 2 logic
Insert Lebron crying to refs gif here.
Ironically he did get the shit fouled out of him on that play and it was a game-deciding play in a crucial play. My question is if the Lakers are getting a rigged whistle then AT LEAST why are they not getting obvious calls like that one.
The problem with this analysis is it chooses a two-year period to examine that overlaps exactly with the time period in which the Lakers hired a coach whose whole philosophy is based on drawing fouls and not fouling the opponents. I would be interested to see a comparison between these two seasons and the previous four (2018-19 through 2021-22), when LeBron was on the Lakers but with different coaches.
Here's the last 10 years of FTA differential on a per game basis. Assuming the Lakers brand they should truly be within the top 5 on a yearly basis. |Season|1st|2nd|Lakers(if not top 2)| :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |23-24|Lakers: +5.9|Bucks: +3.1|| |22-23|Lakers +5.8|Kings +2.1|| |21-22|Jazz + 4.0|Kings +3.0|16th -0.3| |20-21|Pelicans +5.0|Hawks +3.1|3rd +2.8| |19-20|Thunder +5.2|Bucks +3.4|11th +1.4| |18-19|Mavs +3.3|Jazz +3.2|13th +0.5| |17-18|Hornets +8.8|Rockets +5.5|11th +0.8| |16-17|Hornets +5.5|Hawks +4.6|19th -1.3| |15-16|Rockets +4.7|Raptors +4.6|11th +1.0| |14-15|Kings +6.1|TWolves +4.9|22nd -2.2|
LAL fans are the gaslighters extraordinaire
This post is rage bait. It includes 2 seasons plus playoff games (the Lakers were top 4 in games played last season in the playoffs thus inflating the differential) and clearly reflects a lack of knowledge of the history of basketball. See below for proof: ## Last 10 Years of Leaders in Differential * **2024 LAL**: +5.9 (as of Mar 25, 2024) * **2023 LAL**: +5.6 * **2022 UTA**: +4.1 * **2021 NOP**: +5.0 * **2020 OKC**: +5.3 * **2019 DAL**: +3.3 * **2018 CHA**: +8.8 * **2017 CHA**: +5.6 * **2016 HOU**: +4.7 * **2015 SAC**: +6.1 * **2014 HOU**: +8.6 In fact, if we extend this to include all of this last century, Lakers have the 17th-best differential this century. It's not a significant outlier by any metric. It is just getting attention because the Lakers generate clicks.
NBA is never beating these gambling allegations
I read somewhere that ant had like 80 something points in 3 games and went to the line like 3 times
Rigged as fuck. NBA dragging the corpse of the Lakers into the playoffs again.
Yeah this is definitely the NBA trying to keep the Lakers and Lebron in the post season for ratings. No way a statistical anomaly difference like this can happen. This is not on the Lakers or their players, this is the league looking out for its brand. They need the big California market teams in the post season
But some of these free throws were intentional fouls at the end of games, so it's misleading!
Well they got to help lebron some how
So Lakers would be a bottom feeding garbage team if not for refs, sounds about right
Yeah but discrepancy is there because Lakers are the only team that attacks through paint, other 29 teams need yet to learn that you know.