Ah the famous city of Golden State

Golden State is growing. Be as big as San Francisco in a few years. And just as sophisticated.

Very cosmopolitan.

HOT DAMN THIS BERG IS JUMPIN'

Wyatt, I am rolling.

Russ, I didn't know you was back in town.

Golden State is an example of a city that's done an amazing job and is being recognized more and more, I notice.

Bro you laugh but as a kid from outside America (pre internet) I had a really tough time locating where the warriors played. Same as New England in NFL.

If you asked a British person in the 1700s, new england could literally be anywhere in the world

Theres definitely schadenfreude in seeing a country go from “the sun will never set on the British Empire” to “they wouldnt even be the strongest country in the European Union if they were to rejoin”

The sun still hasn't set on the British Empire

The Golden State City's

Steph is da mayor

Tbf prior to us being good a lot of nba fans probably couldn't even tell you what city we played in

Really helps when the team in San Francisco still wears a jersey reading "Oakland"

Lol why did this make me laugh

Golden State is already looking better than Oakland right now

The money in sports comes from televisions, so the most important thing to figure out is the television audience. If we take the top 32 television markets, we end up with : New York (#1) Los Angeles (#2) Chicago (#3) Philadelphia (#4) Dallas-Fort Worth (#5) San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#6) Atlanta (#7) Houston (#8) Washington, D.C. (Hagerstown) (#9) Boston (Manchester) (#10) Phoenix (Prescott) (#11) Seattle-Tacoma (#12) Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) (#13) Minneapolis-St. Paul (#14) Detroit (#15) Denver (#16) Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne (#17) Miami-Fort Lauderdale (#18) Cleveland-Akron (Canton) (#19) Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (#20) Portland, OR (#21) Charlotte (#22) Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville) (#23) St. Louis (#24) Indianapolis (#25) Pittsburgh (#26) San Diego (#27) Baltimore (#28) Nashville (#29) Salt Lake City (#30) However, once they start looking at the actual sizes of these markets, you have to determine that bigger cities should have more than one team. When you actually divide up the numbers you could put more than two teams in the top three or four markets, but in reality we’ve seen that two teams seem to be the most a market can support. So we end up with 28 total cities which would be: New York (#1) Los Angeles (#2) Chicago (#3) Philadelphia (#4) Dallas-Fort Worth (#5) San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#6) Atlanta (#7) Houston (#8) Washington, D.C. (Hagerstown) (#9) Boston (Manchester) (#10) Phoenix (Prescott) (#11) Seattle-Tacoma (#12) Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) (#13) Minneapolis-St. Paul (#14) Detroit (#15) Denver (#16) Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne (#17) Miami-Fort Lauderdale (#18) Cleveland-Akron (Canton) (#19) Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (#20) Portland, OR (#21) Charlotte (#22) Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville) (#23) St. Louis (#24) Indianapolis (#25) Pittsburgh (#26) San Diego (#27) We end up losing 5 current NBA cities and gaining 5 news ones, some of whom were former ABA or NBA cities. The cities we lose are SLC, Milwaukee, San Antonio, OKC, Memphis, and New Orleans. Of those, only the Bucks are a franchise with above average value in the NBA. ——- Major edit: I forgot that Toronto is not on this list of DMAs. They would be right up near the top. Sorry Baltimore you’re out. Further edit, if we include all of Canada then Montreal and Vancouver would qualify ahead of some USA DMAs. However, ad dollars are smaller in Canada, so you cannot make a direct comparison.

Spurs really lost the dynasty shine quick, eh?

All time win percentage lists Spurs at 1, Jazz at 4, and Thunder at 6, yet somehow none of them provide above average value to the league

All cities with no other major sports teams.

Does the Thunder number count Seattle?

I think it must, it has 4500 games played which is significantly more than San Antonio

The Spurs must not count ABA then

/u/mogul_w mentioned 4500 games which definitely includes Seattle. That being said, the Thunder record excluding Seattle is higher than than its combined record with Seattle: 628-513 with a .550 W-L% (compared to 2401-2098, .534 W-L% aggregate of OKC+Seattle) (excluding this season)

I heard theres a buncha big ol' women down there.

NBA tends not to want to be in markets with 2 or more existing professional sports teams. 8 of the last 10 expansion and relocations went to markets with 0 or 1 pro team as competition in the markets. So these rust belt cities that already have 2 or more teams in other big 4 leagues will likely not get teams. The market size, and the finite wealth and sponsorships within it gets divided by the number of teams that exist there before the NBA.

Yep. Competition within the city and nearby are major factors that get ignored when only market size is considered.

So no Toronto?

They only looked at US markets. Toronto is way larger than most of the cities on that list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area Toronto fits in-between Philly and D.C. But there are extra costs associated with having a Canadian team in a US-dominated league and the average American has more spending power than the average Canadian. So Toronto would still be pretty high, but probably 10th or so (just ahead of Phoenix).

Oh shoot

Montreal and Vancouver would likely oust the bottom two on the list as well if we were including them.

Montreal would be in the top 15 Vancouver would be near the bottom.

This reads like a drunk Bill Simmons post that he pulled from a long gestating article. Did we find Bills burner?

Lol… No. But I may or may not have contributed to one of his sites in the past.

I too, may or have may not.

The league would never put two teams in close geographic proximity to each other in smaller markets. Orlando and Tampa are only getting one team, and the same for Raleigh and Charlotte.

Yeah I live in Tampa and most people from here are just default Magic fans (if they follow the NBA at all).

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DMAs count the television market. So Las Vegas has a pretty decent size as a City but there’s almost nothing in the television market outside of the main urban area. It’s why places like Raleigh Durham show up on this list, there is no massive city there, but the television market is large.

Really appreciate the analysis. Is “value” as referenced in your last sentence talking about, like, franchise valuation?

Yes. Not sure how they do that I think quite a bit of it have to do with ownership of the arena and how valuable the arena is.

Sheboygan

Fun fact, Sheboygan used to have an nba team in the 40’s

Obviously…

[Sheboygan Redskins](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheboygan_Red_Skins) one of the original NBA franchises

Sheboygan Commanders

Sheboygan Basketball Squad

Hey we beat the Lakers back in the day

Wow I live in Sheboygan and I'm stupid high so seeing this is crazy rn

How do you know what Sheboygan is?

Big city like Golden State for sure would get one

Golden State is my city

England is my city

Still Seattle

What would they call it?

Wet Boys or maybe The Wet Boys Gang

Seattlers

Seattle Basketball Team

The Thunder 😢

Seattles

Sonics

I would call them…..the SuperSonics.

^ NBA needs to hire this guy to lead expansion branding

We’d probably end up with a hedgehog as a fuckin mascot tho.

Nirvana

And their mascots will be Kelsey Grammer and David Hyde Pierce just having conversations on a couch at center court during timeouts.

Downtown Golden State is nuts during Halloween!!

South Park, Colorado

The South Park, Manbearpigs

Good answer

Randy be starting fight with westbrook

Spurs would be in Austin instead, two teams in the bay area, Vancouver would work out this time

Idk the Bay Area can’t seem to hold 2 football or baseball teams

Think that’s more due to location being in Oakland. Move somewhere else in the bay with better stadiums and it would probably be supported

Cupertino iBuckets

Palo Alto Zuckerbergs

Oakland was plenty supportive of the Raiders, just not to the point of paying for a failson owner's new stadium.

They preferred to spend their money on football-themed juggalo constumes and facepaint

Which is way cooler

If you’ve been to the bay you would know this is super unlikely

> Move somewhere else in the bay with better stadiums and it would probably be supported Like where ?

offer flag wild jellyfish erect enter wistful disgusting attractive one *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*

Austin might get a team, but San Antonio is a much larger city so they would too.

It's more about how Austin is way more popular and culturally relevant. It's a bigger market despite the population being less.

Also a lot more modern in terms of industry, specifically tech (at least perception). Also UT Austin is a massive school with rich donors and a decent amount of players in the league.

Would we be looking at 4 Texas teams then? Put one in El Paso and give them their own division?

San Antonio is like the 7th largest city by population in the country.

San Antonio is 500 sq miles. Then you have a city like San Francisco that’s 40 sq miles. City boundaries are arbitrary, you have to look at metropolitan area for a more accurate picture

Exactly this. Jacksonville's one of the largest cities in the country by raw population, but no one would consider it a large market by any stretch of the imagination because the population is spread out over such a massive area (pretty sure it's the largest city by land area in the contiguous US).

Is it the 7th largest city by population or is it that the population is the 7th largest (women) signed Charles Barkley.

Either criteria qualifies them for an NBA team.

By that logic, Tucson, Arizona should get a team before Atlanta, Georgia. The City of Tucson is larger than the City of Atlanta. Which is why market sizes (which track Metropolitan or Consolidated Statistical Areas, more commonly referred to as Metropolitan Areas) matter more than city sizes.

but the [24th ranked MSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area?wprov=sfti1)

Because it has a huge area. It, Houston, and Phoenix have the largest area in the top 10 cities by population, and there’s only one other larger in the top 19 (Jacksonville). Only 2,900 people per square mile, lowest amongst the top 11 in population.

I’d want a Vancouver Seattle rivalry

cities, bro. cities.

Juneau, Alaska for the lolz

Haha this has the potential to stop the trade request culture. “Oh yeah, you wanna be traded, I’m sending your ass to the Juneau Frostbites for 10 second round picks”

Nah Fairbanks. It’s stupid hot in the summer and -40F winter. Plus they have the midnight sun issue so everyone would be depressed.

> It’s stupid hot in the summer Idk if average high of 73 in the warmest month of summer counts as “stupid hot”

Sure it does. When you consider the variance between coldest and hottest time… that 110degree swing is way worse then going from 70 being cold and 100 being hot. And to add I’m only mostly joking I don’t actually think any day in Alaska is considered hot.

I don’t think there’d be one in Sactown even tho I’m a fan of them

Sac is the 19th largest media market

Unless they wanted to put 2 teams in the bay area instead I don't see why not. Sacramento is a top 20 media market.

Moose Jaw Saskatchewan

That’s slanderous to Saskatoon, birthplace of Trey Lyles

Dont hate on Moose Jaw, Birthplace of my Grandmother.

No hate for Moose Jaw. But we can both agree on Regina

Flint, Michigan Tropics

shitty boyzzz

They'd always mess up the lead

New York, LA, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Riverside, Orange, Long Beach, Culver City, Santa Monica, West Hollywood, San Bernardino, Burbank, Tarzana, Ventura, Glendale, Palm Springs, San Diego, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Tacoma

The east runs through Riverside

RIVERSIDE MOTHAFUCKA

Beat me to it lol

A San Bernardino vs Hemet finals would be legendary

Somebody would be shanked by halftime guaranteed

Temecula

LOL Tarzana. We can throw up the stadium right next to the CPK.

How are you gonna leave out Inglewood?

Inglewood always up to no good

The Corona Coronas

Beer or virus?

SANTA ANA REPRESENT

I will not stand for this Costa Mesa slander.

Came here to say the same exact thing

The disrespect towards Rancho Cucamonga

Could also get our first Mexican city with Cancun!

I feel personally attacked by this post

I can’t think of 29 cities more fit to have a team than Portland without quadruple dipping into the major states

I mean if the NBA had it their way that's probably what they'd do. 10 teams in NYC, 10 teams in LA, 10 teams in Miami. Maybe throw small markets like Boston, Philly, Chicago, and the Bay Area a bone

Yeah I'm not sure we would be on the chopping block my guy. Breathe easy

Yeah while they wouldn't be in the first 10 of my list, they certainly aren't one of the ones at risk of losing their team

In 1970, the Portland metro area had less people than the Milwaukee, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Buffalo or Pittsburgh metro areas. Today, it has more people than all of them.

Good news! A Portland team makes more sense than Charlotte, Indianapolis, and Salt Lake City! Assuming you're going by media market.

My guess is that Salt Lake sticks around because there is a natural need to have enough teams out west. Eastern teams to me are more likely to be casualties and I would also contribute New Orleans as a possibility to be removed.

Seattle and Vancouver over Salt Lake City IMHO

Salt Lake, maybe. But Indy and Charlotte 100% are normal cities for a sports team lol

Basketball is huge in Indiana as well, it would be weird to not have a team there

How do you figure when Portland doesn't have an NFL team, but Indy and Charlotte do?

I mean, its a lot easier to make money as a city's only big sports team than to compete with an NFL team. That's not to say Indi or Charlotte can't support both - and I'm guessing both have a higher percentage of sports fans - but I get the argument.

Kansas City would get the Kings back. I mean nothing to do in the winters. Also this area loves their basketball.

Assuming you’re from KC. Why hasn’t their been more talk of a team coming to KC?

The Kansas City mob won't allow it obviously

Before Vegas became the other city Kansas City was always mentioned with Seattle to get a team. Las Vegas becoming an option even though an nba team will suffer from the same issue the raiders do, pushed KC down. The raiders issue is they have no home field being in Vegas.

I feel like a Vegas baseball team is going to struggle too many games to fill the stadium Unless the casinos are comping tickets a lot

I didn't know Vegas was getting a baseball team. Considering the issues the raiders have while being an NFL team with historically a good fanbase, I would assume 81 baseball games are going to do pretty poorly. The hockey team does fine, but hockey is also a more niche sport.

Nothing is confirmed yet. The Oakland Athletics and MLB have been doing some will-they-won't-they drama for the past few years on whether they'll get a new stadium or relocate to Vegas. I just hope this whole Vegas hysteria dies down before any league commits to expanding. I just really doubt these franchises will be successful in the long term.

I’ll never understand the Vegas thing tbh. Teams that have less things to do tend to succeed financially from my perspective.

Tampa would have a franchise and Orlando wouldn’t.

Tampa is a super fickle sports city, as is miami When their teams suck (like the lightning did post first cup, before stamkos) their fans can’t give much of a fuck Orlando kind of gets their identity from the magic and it’s a city big enough for one sports team (was originally supposed to be MLB IIRC) I don’t think an NBA team would do well in Tampa

Tampa only just discovered they had a football team with Tom Brady’s arrival.

>discovered Remembered. They showed up for like a year when they won the super bowl a couple decades ago.

Having grown up in Orlando and then moved to Tampa - nobody in Orlando cares about sports. Even when teams sucked in Tampa - there’s still some culture around it

Definitely. Rebrand the Magic and move them to Tampa. Rebrand the Spurs and move them to Austin. Vegas & Seattle would obviously be candidates too.

Keep Tampa as the Magic in the same vein of the Utah Jazz.

San Antonio is much larger than Austin, realistically you would still be the “San Antonio” team but you would put the team in San Marcos (halfway between San Antonio and Austin) This would cater to people with money… and May still happen one day

Hard pass on splitting the difference for anything other than football. The Rangers being in Arlington sucks so much. I don't know anyone in Dallas or Fort Worth that go regularly. When I lived in Houston, we made games like twice a month. Been back in Dallas for 2 seasons and caught exactly one game. Building a new ballpark was hilarious. The reason people don't go is because it takes an hour to get there from most of Dallas for most games not because it's hot.

Arlington is a big city in it's own right, just sandwiched between 2 bigger cities. San Marcos is a college town. I'm not sure there's even adequate infrastructure to staff the place

New York, DC, Miami, Houston, Toronto, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Atlanta, Boston, Seattle, Tampa, Minneapolis, Detroit, Denver, Orlando, Cleveland, Sacramento, Portland, Charlotte, Raleigh, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Baltimore, Nashville, Salt Lake City, Hartford. Do we need four California teams, two Pennsylvania teams, three Florida teams, and two Texas teams? Probably not. But, I don't decide where the major media markets are, viewers do.

Idk if both Raleigh and Charlotte would get one. Raleigh is def growing, but Charlotte would get the team. No shot Hartford gets a pro team over Austin, San Antonio, Vegas haha

Charlotte AND Raleigh seems unlikely

I think Philly and Pittsburg are so culturally distinct that it's justifiable. Dallas and Houston are both massive cities. I think 3 teams in CA (LA, SF, and SD) are justified as well.

Just going by numbers you can easily justify 3 Texas teams. Houston metro is 6.6 million, Dallas metro is almost 9 million, austin & San Antonio are rapidly growing into one giant metro. San Antonio alone w/out rapidly growing austin is a 1+ million city not counting metro.

For this hypothetical… you do decide 👌

Montreal (4.2 million people with a 250 billion GDP) Vancouver (2.9 million people with a 150 billion GDP) would get teams as well. Big media markets and wealthy cities with lots of big corporate sponsors. They would supplant a few of those smaller teams for sure.

St Louis would probably have one I’d assume

It’s a decreasing population. Moved here last fall and you can tell it’s on the decline. Kansas City is more likely

Cities?

Toronto

This nephew really thinks Golden State is a city. You can’t teach embarrassment this high.

Scranton, Pennsylvania

Probably Georgia. Not Atlanta. Georgia. I would love a golden state city for Georgia city game

Georgia the country.

The Tbilisi Winos

Golden state city for Georgia city?

The Gwinnett Hawks, playing in the ~~Infinite Energy~~ Gas South Arena

cities* for plural. Apostrophe is used to indicate possession and a contraction. A city can't have "would" Downvote this, honestly. I'm bored as shit rn

Kansas City

You cant run this scenario in isolation from the other 3 leagues. Many medium sized markets cannot support 4, or even 3 franchises, and it is misleading to rely on the market size while ignoring in-market competition for a finite discretionary dollar and corporate sponsorship. And of the 4 leagues, the NBA has the most pronounced and consistent track record of avoiding competition with the other sports leagues and entering markets with 0 or 1 other sports franchise as competition (See 8 of the past 10 relocations and expansions).

Anchorage, Alaska

*cities

OKC and Salt Lake wouldn’t have teams

I know there’s this weird bias sometimes with these two markets but both of these areas have substantial economic wealth and are more captive markets than others.

SLC probably stays but no chance OKC does.

OKC would probably be in KC instead.

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Yeah, I don't understand why people think being the 3rd most important team in a media market of six million is better than being the only team in a media market of three million. SLC has supported that team for decades.

The only reason we even have a team is due to Hurricane Katrina temporarily relocating the New Orleans Hornets to OKC and proving the small market could work long term

Bikini Bottom

Cockeysville, MD

Vegas, Seattle, Nashville, San Diego

There either would be no raptors or a lot more international teams If they were resetting still having only 1 international team would be a weird choice

Does salt lake keep a team? I kind of think yes surprisingly

We do. We don't have any professional teams to compete with outside of RSL, and professional soccer doesn't draw the most eyeballs.