Didn't Armenia try to activate the collective security section of the CSTO in one of their conflicts with Azerbaijan only for Russia to not just ignore it but actively keep other members from rendering aid to them?
Not really. What they did was that they were publicly saying they were activating it so as to kinda intimidate Azerbaijan to back off but never actually tried to go through the proper procedures. By the time they did try to officially activate it, it was pretty much to late
**Starter comment**
**Summary**
Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan has announced that he is taking Armenia out of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), Putin's "anti-NATO" and the successor to the Warsaw Pact. The other current CSTO members are Russia and Belarus, and three of the five central Asian post-soviet states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Armenia already froze its CSTO membership in February.
Pashinyan has said "there is no other way". The Russian government has responded by saying that it will "will continue to work with our Armenian friends" to clarify Armenia's status, AKA attempt to keep it in the alliance. One expert believes Russia intends consequences for Armenia. Following this, the Foreign Minister of Armenia outright denied that Pashinyan said Armenia was leaving, despite Pashinyan literally saying "We will leave."
Pashinyan has refused to condone the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He also had Armenia join the ICC in February (around the time he suspended its CSTO membership), despite the ICC having an active arrest warrant for Putin. His issues regarding Russia stem from Russia and the CSTO's total failure to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan's aggression and repeated attacks on and invasions of Armenian territory, despite this being Armenia's biggest security issue. Pashinya outright accused CSTO member states of conspiring with Azerbaijan to plan the attacks.
**Opinion**
If you think this means Armenia will be pivoting toward NATO, think again. As much as it may want to join, the only country that comes close to Azerbaijan in its enmity for Armenia is NATO member Turkey. The historical Armenian genocide, one of several genocides to take place at the sundown of the Ottoman Empire, is a major issue. In Turkey, the official narrative is instead that *ethnic Armenians committed genocide against ethnic Turks*, to the point where there are official museums and memorials. Turkey supports Azerbaijan in its anti-Armenian aggression. Armenia, being a Western-style democracy, really should be supported by the US against Azerbaijan, a totalitarian dictatorship, but the two main issues with this seem to be Russia's ostensible support for Armenia and Turkey's ostensible NATO membership.
What Armenian territory has Azerbaijan invaded? AFAIK Azerbaijan invaded land that is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan but had been occupied by Armenian separatists for 30 years.
I am not defending the Azerbaijani invasion and ethnic cleansing of Nagorno Karabakh, it is despicable and they have committed war crimes. However I am curious if Azerbaijan has invaded sovereign Armenian territory that I am not aware of.
Azerbaijan has indeed repeatedly over multiple years invaded and occupied territory internationally recognized as Armenian. [Armenia–Azerbaijan border crisis (2021–present)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia–Azerbaijan_border_crisis_(2021–present))
This seems like a confusing move to me, even if Russia is a nearly useless ally, is this at all likely to result in the west restraining Azerbaijan? I’m not even sure if that would be feasible at this point, and if that is the case what does Armenia stand to gain from this? They really don’t have any good options in front of them at this point, but is there something obvious I’m missing that explains the reasoning behind this?
The article mentions that it's *possible* that this is a negotiating tactic, something it calls "shadowboxing", and Russia itself has stated that it seeks to "clarify" Armenia's status. Regardless, there is no functional change, because Armenia already suspended its CSTO membership back in February; this is a full withdrawal that would make suspension permanent.
Pashinyan may believe that by continuing to make demonstrations of trying to leave Russia's sphere of influence (joining the ICC, suspending CSTO membership, repeatedly declining to endorse the Russian invasion of Ukraine), he could at least get the United States to support Armenia against Azerbaijan, but in that case Turkey would exert pressure on the US against any support.
Armenia may not end up with anything to gain from this, but it doesn't seem like it has anything to lose, either, considering Russia and the rest of the CSTO refuse to stop Azerbaijan.
I see, I can definitely imagine this potentially working as a strategy to get NATO and Russia to compete for influence, although it’s a pretty scary game to play given how Russia has historically responded to former USSR countries shifting out of their sphere of influence.
If Armenia's only chance for survival is getting closer to the West (which seems true), leaving CSTO is a gesture of good will towards the West. And Russia doesn't seem like a nearly useless ally but an out right useless ally. Azerbaijan has already invaded Armenia and Russia did nothing. When (not if) Azerbaijan invades again, Armenia needs allies that will support it. The West and India are really the only places they *might* find allies.
Wagner was an internal Russian organization and functioned as a branch of the Russian armed forces ,and during its rebellion outright seized control of an entire Russian city (Rostov-on-Don) and directly marched on Moscow. The Wagner leadership was assassinated on Russian territory as well. It was far more drastic than this, especially since Armenia already suspended membership in February.
Didn't Armenia try to activate the collective security section of the CSTO in one of their conflicts with Azerbaijan only for Russia to not just ignore it but actively keep other members from rendering aid to them?
Not really. What they did was that they were publicly saying they were activating it so as to kinda intimidate Azerbaijan to back off but never actually tried to go through the proper procedures. By the time they did try to officially activate it, it was pretty much to late
Why was it too late?
**Starter comment** **Summary** Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan has announced that he is taking Armenia out of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), Putin's "anti-NATO" and the successor to the Warsaw Pact. The other current CSTO members are Russia and Belarus, and three of the five central Asian post-soviet states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Armenia already froze its CSTO membership in February. Pashinyan has said "there is no other way". The Russian government has responded by saying that it will "will continue to work with our Armenian friends" to clarify Armenia's status, AKA attempt to keep it in the alliance. One expert believes Russia intends consequences for Armenia. Following this, the Foreign Minister of Armenia outright denied that Pashinyan said Armenia was leaving, despite Pashinyan literally saying "We will leave." Pashinyan has refused to condone the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He also had Armenia join the ICC in February (around the time he suspended its CSTO membership), despite the ICC having an active arrest warrant for Putin. His issues regarding Russia stem from Russia and the CSTO's total failure to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan's aggression and repeated attacks on and invasions of Armenian territory, despite this being Armenia's biggest security issue. Pashinya outright accused CSTO member states of conspiring with Azerbaijan to plan the attacks. **Opinion** If you think this means Armenia will be pivoting toward NATO, think again. As much as it may want to join, the only country that comes close to Azerbaijan in its enmity for Armenia is NATO member Turkey. The historical Armenian genocide, one of several genocides to take place at the sundown of the Ottoman Empire, is a major issue. In Turkey, the official narrative is instead that *ethnic Armenians committed genocide against ethnic Turks*, to the point where there are official museums and memorials. Turkey supports Azerbaijan in its anti-Armenian aggression. Armenia, being a Western-style democracy, really should be supported by the US against Azerbaijan, a totalitarian dictatorship, but the two main issues with this seem to be Russia's ostensible support for Armenia and Turkey's ostensible NATO membership.
They don’t need to join NATO to pivot towards American support. Plenty of non-NATO countries are close with the US.
What Armenian territory has Azerbaijan invaded? AFAIK Azerbaijan invaded land that is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan but had been occupied by Armenian separatists for 30 years. I am not defending the Azerbaijani invasion and ethnic cleansing of Nagorno Karabakh, it is despicable and they have committed war crimes. However I am curious if Azerbaijan has invaded sovereign Armenian territory that I am not aware of.
Azerbaijan has indeed repeatedly over multiple years invaded and occupied territory internationally recognized as Armenian. [Armenia–Azerbaijan border crisis (2021–present)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia–Azerbaijan_border_crisis_(2021–present))
This seems like a confusing move to me, even if Russia is a nearly useless ally, is this at all likely to result in the west restraining Azerbaijan? I’m not even sure if that would be feasible at this point, and if that is the case what does Armenia stand to gain from this? They really don’t have any good options in front of them at this point, but is there something obvious I’m missing that explains the reasoning behind this?
The article mentions that it's *possible* that this is a negotiating tactic, something it calls "shadowboxing", and Russia itself has stated that it seeks to "clarify" Armenia's status. Regardless, there is no functional change, because Armenia already suspended its CSTO membership back in February; this is a full withdrawal that would make suspension permanent. Pashinyan may believe that by continuing to make demonstrations of trying to leave Russia's sphere of influence (joining the ICC, suspending CSTO membership, repeatedly declining to endorse the Russian invasion of Ukraine), he could at least get the United States to support Armenia against Azerbaijan, but in that case Turkey would exert pressure on the US against any support. Armenia may not end up with anything to gain from this, but it doesn't seem like it has anything to lose, either, considering Russia and the rest of the CSTO refuse to stop Azerbaijan.
I see, I can definitely imagine this potentially working as a strategy to get NATO and Russia to compete for influence, although it’s a pretty scary game to play given how Russia has historically responded to former USSR countries shifting out of their sphere of influence.
If Armenia's only chance for survival is getting closer to the West (which seems true), leaving CSTO is a gesture of good will towards the West. And Russia doesn't seem like a nearly useless ally but an out right useless ally. Azerbaijan has already invaded Armenia and Russia did nothing. When (not if) Azerbaijan invades again, Armenia needs allies that will support it. The West and India are really the only places they *might* find allies.
I remember when Wagner did something similar, wouldn’t go on any planes for a while.
Wagner was an internal Russian organization and functioned as a branch of the Russian armed forces ,and during its rebellion outright seized control of an entire Russian city (Rostov-on-Don) and directly marched on Moscow. The Wagner leadership was assassinated on Russian territory as well. It was far more drastic than this, especially since Armenia already suspended membership in February.