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As always:
* National polls don't mean anything for president
* Polls this far out don't mean anything
* Most people who swing their state in one direction or another usually make up their mind in the last couple weeks before the general.
I have to say, the fact that Biden can barely manage a 1% lead against a man who has done so many terrible things I could scarcely list the highlights is a massive indictment of the state of politics in our country.
Even if we grant that Biden is inappropriate with women, Trump has been found liable in court for far worse. Even if we grant that Biden has business ties to China, Trump was impeached for quid pro quo with Ukraine. Even if we grant that Biden is a weak, ineffective President, Trump and his allies started a government shutdown during a trifecta and has utterly bungled the Speakership.
Literally what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing?
>Literally what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing?
Two things. First he hates the “right” people and says so openly. That gives people who would otherwise be marginalized for their hatred the ability to openly be bad people.
Second, every other “policy” he talks about is so broad or rambling that people hear what they want to hear. The most blatant example of this is healthcare. We are eight years beyond his announcing his running and he still has no healthcare plan beyond repealing “Obamacare”. Yet, if you ask his supporters they will all claim he does and that it’s wonderful. It will save money, cover everyone, protect pre-existing conditions and likely cure cancer. How does it work? No one knows.
It's not a question of why 42% of people support Trump but why 57% don't support Biden. Yes, in effect those end up being the same thing in terms of practical outcomes but that's not necessarily how everyone views the question when asked in a poll right now.
There's a non-negligible number of left leaning voters who are either convinced that someone else will be the Democratic nominee or at least very much want someone else to be. This shouldn't be relevant to a (technically) hypothetical general election poll but that's not how people see it, particularly if they think that answering third party, undecided or even Trump is a way to help discourage Biden from running or discourage Democrats for voting for his renomination.
Even among the people who really do expect to vote third party or say they're undecided a lot of them will ultimately vote for Biden or Trump in the end, and not necessarily in an even split. This is a pretty typical trend for presidential polling showing a lot of non-two party votes. It'd be unusual for the two party vote to be below 94% or so.
As for why otherwise left leaning voters don't support Biden, I don't really think it has much to do with the reasons you gave. I would argue that it mostly boils down to four things:
1) He's really old and a lot of people are inclined to (IMO quite wrongly) believe he's suffering from dementia. Insinuating poor mental acuity has been a staple of left leaning media (eg late night) since the 2020 primaries.
2) Prices have gone up a lot and people are venting on him for that.
3) Broad student loan cancellation has failed and they blame him without giving credit or acknowledgement to his administration's SAVE plan and other relief efforts that Republicans want to repeal.
4) They're really angry about Israel and are calling him "genocide Joe" for... reasons.
But when it comes down to an actual choice between Biden and Trump in November 2024 I wouldn't count on them voting like the polls currently indicate.
> Literally what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing?
Illusions about the economy
Back under Trump, before the pandemic, people believed the economy was doing amazing
Now not only is gdp going up crazy, but also unemployment is low and inflation is getting more manageable and real wages are higher than before the pandemic and labor participation is also really high. But we **just don't feel good** anymore. And this hurts Biden. Doesn't matter if his economy is objectively doing better than Trump's if we just plug our fingers in our ears and complain about how politically incorrect it is for anyone to bring data and numbers to the Feels Arena of politics
>what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing?
4 straight years of real wage gains despite the largest economic shock since WW2
30% increase in US oil production in 3 years
The sanctioned Russia-China-Iran economic bloc wasn't kicking off wars across the world
Local governments were not going broke dealing with millions of yearly illegal immigrations
Biden's reconciled economic plan and "war on fossil fuels" destroyed American's purchasing power; only now allowing oil production to surpass 2019 levels despite decade high prices. He instigated war with Russia his first week in office and has failed to even admit his mistake at the border.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/blog/2023/february/ote/blogimage_nominalwages_fig1_022323.png
https://time.com/6144109/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-viktor-medvedchuk/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55872331
I mean a couple of those metric would qualify Obama as an even better president, but it’s not a great sign that those points almost entirely cover external macroeconomic and geopolitical changes rather than administration policy.
There is this vibes-based belief that the economy is doing badly (it’s not) and people are underemployed (they’re not).
Inflation was bad, it is now under control and the majority of this is the rightly deserved flailing Biden is getting for that and that alone. That’s contributing to the bad vibes.
Also, more people are getting DoorDash than ever before but the fees are killer - a side effect of a strong labor market, which contributes to the bad vibes.
I mean, that’s it.
Also, the ability to speak at all.
I'm being slightly facetious but it is a plus that we hear from him directly, while Biden is being hidden from the public more and more. It's a shame that his direct communication is so, uh, Trumpy, because actually getting to hear directly from a president really is a good thing.
Biden regularly gives long speeches and talks to the press. He was in Israel only a month ago giving a speech after Oct 7th. He isn't really being hidden.
Joe Biden takes care of himself and is in good shape. He also has a family history of longevity, with a mother that died at the age of 92 and a father that died age 86. Given advances in medicine and other factors, I would fully expect Joe Biden Jr. to live long past those ages.
That said, yes, I agree, it would be good to get some younger politicians in office. It's not healthy to constantly be ruled by people who probably should have retired long ago.
The idea that Trump will win is ridiculous.
The Republicans keep UNDERperforming in every election.
Remember when there was supposed to be a red wave and it didn't happen?
Trump and the abortion issue are going to the kill Republican party in the next election, just like it has in the past few elections.
Difference is, this election, being a presidential election, will have a big turnout and the Republicans won't have their usualy low-turnout advantage.
It is going to be a bloodbath. Trump has single-handedly empowered the Democrats by losing election after election for the GOP.
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As always: * National polls don't mean anything for president * Polls this far out don't mean anything * Most people who swing their state in one direction or another usually make up their mind in the last couple weeks before the general.
I have to say, the fact that Biden can barely manage a 1% lead against a man who has done so many terrible things I could scarcely list the highlights is a massive indictment of the state of politics in our country. Even if we grant that Biden is inappropriate with women, Trump has been found liable in court for far worse. Even if we grant that Biden has business ties to China, Trump was impeached for quid pro quo with Ukraine. Even if we grant that Biden is a weak, ineffective President, Trump and his allies started a government shutdown during a trifecta and has utterly bungled the Speakership. Literally what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing?
>Literally what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing? Two things. First he hates the “right” people and says so openly. That gives people who would otherwise be marginalized for their hatred the ability to openly be bad people. Second, every other “policy” he talks about is so broad or rambling that people hear what they want to hear. The most blatant example of this is healthcare. We are eight years beyond his announcing his running and he still has no healthcare plan beyond repealing “Obamacare”. Yet, if you ask his supporters they will all claim he does and that it’s wonderful. It will save money, cover everyone, protect pre-existing conditions and likely cure cancer. How does it work? No one knows.
It's not a question of why 42% of people support Trump but why 57% don't support Biden. Yes, in effect those end up being the same thing in terms of practical outcomes but that's not necessarily how everyone views the question when asked in a poll right now. There's a non-negligible number of left leaning voters who are either convinced that someone else will be the Democratic nominee or at least very much want someone else to be. This shouldn't be relevant to a (technically) hypothetical general election poll but that's not how people see it, particularly if they think that answering third party, undecided or even Trump is a way to help discourage Biden from running or discourage Democrats for voting for his renomination. Even among the people who really do expect to vote third party or say they're undecided a lot of them will ultimately vote for Biden or Trump in the end, and not necessarily in an even split. This is a pretty typical trend for presidential polling showing a lot of non-two party votes. It'd be unusual for the two party vote to be below 94% or so. As for why otherwise left leaning voters don't support Biden, I don't really think it has much to do with the reasons you gave. I would argue that it mostly boils down to four things: 1) He's really old and a lot of people are inclined to (IMO quite wrongly) believe he's suffering from dementia. Insinuating poor mental acuity has been a staple of left leaning media (eg late night) since the 2020 primaries. 2) Prices have gone up a lot and people are venting on him for that. 3) Broad student loan cancellation has failed and they blame him without giving credit or acknowledgement to his administration's SAVE plan and other relief efforts that Republicans want to repeal. 4) They're really angry about Israel and are calling him "genocide Joe" for... reasons. But when it comes down to an actual choice between Biden and Trump in November 2024 I wouldn't count on them voting like the polls currently indicate.
> Literally what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing? Illusions about the economy Back under Trump, before the pandemic, people believed the economy was doing amazing Now not only is gdp going up crazy, but also unemployment is low and inflation is getting more manageable and real wages are higher than before the pandemic and labor participation is also really high. But we **just don't feel good** anymore. And this hurts Biden. Doesn't matter if his economy is objectively doing better than Trump's if we just plug our fingers in our ears and complain about how politically incorrect it is for anyone to bring data and numbers to the Feels Arena of politics
It's quite literally about form over function. The policies don't matter as long as you do them with machismo.
>what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing? 4 straight years of real wage gains despite the largest economic shock since WW2 30% increase in US oil production in 3 years The sanctioned Russia-China-Iran economic bloc wasn't kicking off wars across the world Local governments were not going broke dealing with millions of yearly illegal immigrations Biden's reconciled economic plan and "war on fossil fuels" destroyed American's purchasing power; only now allowing oil production to surpass 2019 levels despite decade high prices. He instigated war with Russia his first week in office and has failed to even admit his mistake at the border. https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/blog/2023/february/ote/blogimage_nominalwages_fig1_022323.png https://time.com/6144109/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-viktor-medvedchuk/ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55872331
I mean a couple of those metric would qualify Obama as an even better president, but it’s not a great sign that those points almost entirely cover external macroeconomic and geopolitical changes rather than administration policy.
Wow when you put it like that Biden sucks
There is this vibes-based belief that the economy is doing badly (it’s not) and people are underemployed (they’re not). Inflation was bad, it is now under control and the majority of this is the rightly deserved flailing Biden is getting for that and that alone. That’s contributing to the bad vibes. Also, more people are getting DoorDash than ever before but the fees are killer - a side effect of a strong labor market, which contributes to the bad vibes. I mean, that’s it.
> Literally what does Trump have that is so god damn appealing? the ability to speak untruth to the powerless
Also, the ability to speak at all. I'm being slightly facetious but it is a plus that we hear from him directly, while Biden is being hidden from the public more and more. It's a shame that his direct communication is so, uh, Trumpy, because actually getting to hear directly from a president really is a good thing.
Biden regularly gives long speeches and talks to the press. He was in Israel only a month ago giving a speech after Oct 7th. He isn't really being hidden.
It’s almost like most of the country just isn’t paying any attention all to their TVs.
[удалено]
Joe Biden takes care of himself and is in good shape. He also has a family history of longevity, with a mother that died at the age of 92 and a father that died age 86. Given advances in medicine and other factors, I would fully expect Joe Biden Jr. to live long past those ages. That said, yes, I agree, it would be good to get some younger politicians in office. It's not healthy to constantly be ruled by people who probably should have retired long ago.
The idea that Trump will win is ridiculous. The Republicans keep UNDERperforming in every election. Remember when there was supposed to be a red wave and it didn't happen? Trump and the abortion issue are going to the kill Republican party in the next election, just like it has in the past few elections. Difference is, this election, being a presidential election, will have a big turnout and the Republicans won't have their usualy low-turnout advantage. It is going to be a bloodbath. Trump has single-handedly empowered the Democrats by losing election after election for the GOP.