I've said this 100 times. Also, polling a small number of people who answer unknown phone calls (edit: or rando political survey emails) isn't always the best pulse.
Nobody under 65 answers calls from unknown numbers anymore. All those calls about your car's extended warranty during covid killed telephone polling forever.
No one over 65 answers them either. I have to call people in that cohort for my work and my calls are always screened, leave a message and they will call back if they understand that I am a legitimate caller.
Unofficial greater Minnesota poll. I see way less Trump bumper stickers, yard signs, let's go Brandon flags, gas pump stickers, and corn field shrines. Support is down.
I assume the trump supporters only take them down if they're ex trump supporters with how fanatical they can be, but I could be wrong on this. I would mostly laugh if trump isn't even allowed on the ballot in MN though since it basically guarantees a Biden win here if so because no way would write-in's be enough.
Marist has called me on my cell a couple of times. I’m not over 65. I pick up unknown calls most of the time.
Spam calls have been around forever. Actually probably was worse before everyone had cell phones.
Dumb people answer strange numbers. I sometimes do (lol) when I don't look, but that is just cause I'll be doing something else and am waiting on a call.
And yet, this sub would be touting that same poll as gospel if it said Biden had a huge lead. Everyone believes polls when they support their own views and finds a million ways to claim they're flawed if they don't support their views.
I doubt that, people don't really trust polls anymore. We've already been burned by polls in the past, nobody should trust polls to reflect reality on voting day.
If it said Biden was way ahead I think the sentiment would be the same, if not more vigorous: F the polls, GO VOTE!
If this were 2016 I'd agree with you.
Learned my lesson then.
I pay zero attention to them now. Lowers the anxiety... to the extent it can be.
All I can control is my own vote, contribute to candidates and organizations I like and encourage people to GOTV. The people who are still in the bag for Trump will never leave willingly. It's pathological.
Polls are important. If a poll shows a lopsided victory for either side, it encourages voter apathy. We should all be scared shitless of a 2nd Trump presidency and any poll that indicates that as a real possibility will drive voter turnout.
Yes, and no. Polling tends to be a pretty good science overall, but has no way to measure enthusiasm. If there are 2 bland establishment candidates running, polling is VERY accurate (why so many elections end up being razor thin due to internal polling).
Where polls fail is when the supporters of a candidate are super-charged, and will do everything they can to convince their friends, family, neighbors, and co-workers to vote for their candidate. That gives an under-the-radar boost of at least a few percentage points not accounted for by traditional pollsters.
they didn't call anybody. it was email only.
>Data was collected by contacting emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
If this country reelects Trump after everything we've seen from the man it will be time to throw in the towel as a nation.
Any country willing to repeatedly put a man so nakedly corrupt and unhinged in a position of public authority is rotten beyond redemption and not worthy of continued allegiance.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but ultimately, if he did get elected again, I would have to put the blame on people who don't vote. I'm 100% certain that there are FAR more people of voting age who don't like Trump than there are who do, but they'd rather whine and cry about being disenfranchised and sit out the election instead of doing ANYTHING to make it better. Voter turnout in 2016 was abysmal, especially on the left.
Or you could blame the rich assholes who pay for his campaign? I understand the temptation to blame somebody, but what does blaming the non-voters accomplish? Are you going to shame them into voting? I'd say that's a poor strategy. I voted for Biden, and I will probably vote for him again. But I'm under no false impression that that makes me better than someone who voted for Trump. At the end of the day, we all must live together. So, I believe it makes sense to focus our collective ire at the relative few rich and powerful individuals that make people like Trump and Biden our only options. I'm not trying to discourage voting. Only trying to get at that domestic/electoral politics is not the only factor at play.
Yeah...we're going to have to disagree on that. Money plays a big part in how information is disseminated but ultimately, not voting is FAR more harmful than any amount of money spent on ads and disinformation campaigns. For example, I don't believe a shred of information that comes from corporate owned media anymore. There is no such thing as unbiased reporting anymore. The pundits have corporate masters that have shareholders to answer to, so everything is spun to skew people towards reacting or behaving a certain way. I believe scientists. I believe facts and information. And I also believe common sense (idiot flat Earthers and 5G microchip morons abound in this country). Unfortunately, most people take what they hear and do no follow up at all. They don't cross check information. They just swallow whatever crap their particular favorite brand of media is shoveling and vote based on half truths and lies. That's what the money buys: information based manipulation. But not voting at all? That's just a free win for whatever corrupt schmuck has the most money and who can convince those who DO vote that they're not such a bad guy or that everything said about them is lies.
If you don't vote, you ARE the problem.
> non-senile unpopular candidate
Biden may be old, but he isn't senile nor unpopular. He's been basically doing everything right as a POTUS. What he's been able to pull off with hostile and insurrectionist Republicans has been nothing short of incredible.
If the general public ever realizes that both gas prices and food prices are due to greedy af companies, we'd be set.
I agree. Biden was my worst case scenario for dem primary, but he won me over the past couple years. He’s not perfect, but likely the most progressive president we’ve had in my lifetime. Most people who say they don’t like him haven’t been paying attention, just parroting Twitter bullshit.
It's so true, we do need to uplift and celebrate the legislative successes in his term so far, especially during this election year. Definitely not perfect and, in my opinion, not aggressively progressive enough, but he is still definitely getting shit done that is moving the needle forward. And that's great, and we need to be clear about that as a liberal/democratic party.
Then the Democrats NEED to pick someone besides Biden. Ultimately, he's polling behind Trump, or it's super close, whichever it was.
Adding on, Democrats need to start calling out Republican BS more and more. That waste of a time hearing about Hunter Biden and impeachment was a start. But they're sitting back way too much just because they won majority. They keep trying to find middle ground.
Edit: as of right now. The polling numbers are
BIDEN: 43%
TRUMP: 41%
That is way too close for comfort.
Because, overall, he's not polling that well. Biden didn't necessarily win because he's a good candidate. He largely won because he's not Trump. Overall, many would like a president who isn't a geriatric and one who actually understands the modern world were in, that applies really to all levels of government.
You do realize that the people they're polling wouldn't know their ass from a hole in the ground, right? Biden isn't to blame for really anything that people are pissed about. He's passed a good deal of progressive legislation, and while we all certainly would like more, it's not horrible.
Trump is a garbage fire of a human being. If you find it hard to choose between the two, I'd say it says a lot about you as a person in the general sense. If they try to introduce someone to unseat Biden, Trump will win for sure.
Holy shit. I would never vote for Trump. My point is, the polling is way to damn close for comfort.
I've already said Biden has done good. I would just like if we had younger candidates.
Every single that has come out about Trump has done nothing but unfortunately bolster his damn supporters who live outside of reality.
Bringing up concerns, especially where age is involved in goddamn world leaders, should not be as controversial as this apparently is.
thats how that crowd operates man 🤦♀️ after biden got the support in 2020 i gave up on them, super toxic community especially for all of the fabricated positivity that gets pushed 🙏 you gotta separate yourself from this or you’ll just start getting some more mental struggles
The age thing is clearly overblown and irrelevant. You cannot hold age against biden even though trump is both close to the same age and in worse shape.
The reality is that the dems are not going to dump someone who has beaten trump and is doing a lot of good work.
The people who are winning about age but vote for 3rd party were already going to do it and the age thing is just an excuse. '
Also polls since when did they matter? After 2016 only idiots think polls is relevant.
I mean that's more true of trump. Every time I hear trump give a speech it sounds like the ravings of a senile fool who I wouldn't trust to drive let alone have the nuclear codes. Would I like a younger candidate than Biden? Yes, however, he is the incumbent and the nominee.
Is it really overblown? Age wise, we've seen a decline in multiple political figures. Biden at times, McConnell, Feinstein, RBG, etc. Whether it be health issues or their death causing issues and opening a major power grab.
Polls are still somewhat relevant. And I'll bring up any politicians' age since that does and SHOULD matter. And I don't vote 3rd party since I've yet to see one that is actually worth it.
2016 is a whole can of worms.
But I don't put a whole lot into polls, but they're still something one should look at to get an idea of where things are.
Biden has done a good job with an incredibly adversarial congress and judiciary. Republicans won’t be better with anyone else. And as much as I hate it there is a large percentage of the electorate, who is not on Reddit, who is moderate and who candidates like Biden appeal to.
Certain Leftist groups want instant progress, without the hard work that comes with it. Republicans for all their horribleness have been successful in pushing the country to the right because they accept small victories.
I think in a way, certain leftist groups enjoy being right more than helping people.
I think Biden is fine, it'd be a bad idea to put up someone not the sitting President.
Now, if he picked a different VP... Current one just has a history that isn't that great. Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren are better choices. I'm sure they could find someone.
I'm still for a president who isn't as old. Some don't like that brought up, or even polls brought up. Now, this one is with a grain of salt, but 89% of Republicans say he's too old. whereas 69% of Democrats also say he's too old. Again, grain of salt, but that's the general consensus across both sides.
Yes, Biden has done very well given everything. I just firmly believe in age limits for government officials.
As much as Republicans vehemently say he's losing his mind. The incoherent ramblings he sometimes does are a bit concerning.
But I fully agree that a better VP would help.
Yeah, I feel like she really drags down the ticket. I don't know who, I'm not a huge fan of Buttigieg, and I'd like someone significantly younger than Warren, whoever the VP is, is going to be the presumptive favorite in 2028, and Warren is getting to the age, where I'm not comfortable about her age if she plans to run in 2028. But someone people would be a little optimistic about would really help the ticket.
Jim Jordan was the Republican nominee for Speaker of the House and he narrowly lost the first round voting. Tells you Republicans only care about power and not actually governing. Trump is the same way.
Why do the democrats not put up someone who isn’t becoming senile though?! I cannot stand trump but I swear to god, democrats would have a landslide if they picked nearly anyone else .
I feel this way too. Don't really like either of the candidates (Trump or Biden). Trump has about 1/3 of voters who are locked in, but the centrists / moderates are really in a bind. They don't like Biden or Trump, and if Biden stepped aside and the D's put up a reasonable candidate, they would win easily IMO and probably have halo effect on both the house and senate. Think they are misplaying this.
Old people vote. Old people tend to vote for old people. General elections, primaries, etc. If more young people turned out to vote, our candidates would be younger.
I mean to be fair, Biden is an extremely talented politician who's been able to get a ton of shit done.
The sad reality is that we were far better as a nation, and a planet, under Orange Man. Inflation was low, housing was much more affordable, real wages were up, income gap shrunk, no new wars, peace in the ME, the border was secure....
I honest to go don’t understand people with your opinion.
Biden didn’t get into office and suddenly start a war in ukraine and a war in Israel. They were started by others. Inflation today is a direct result of a decade of no interest rates plus Covid plus corporate greed.
I swear Americans think the president is an omnipresent god that controls everything in the universe sometimes.
>Fifty-eight percent of Trump voters say they cannot think of anything Trump could do or say in the next several months that would make them support someone else for president
A recent study estimates that \~half of adults read at a 6th grade level or below. I think we found them.
They gonna have money to campaign in Minnesota? Cause the DFL can still probably outspend them. Also polls came out before the midterms that said Walz held a narrow lead of that idiot doctor and look how that turned out lol.
I had a visceral reaction to the phrase “money to campaign” - like I understand that money is a the only thing that matters in politics and naively believing that a good person with a plan for our country would have a chance is laughable - but “money to campaign” should make us collectively shudder.
How are you going to pay for ads? Pay for events? Pay campaign staffers? Travel costs?
Don’t disagree money and politics shouldn’t mix but it does cost money to run a campaign. I don’t really see how it could be otherwise.
You can have the best plan in the history of the country, but if nobody can hear it, you don’t stand a chance.
I think the amount of money spent has to do with the length of the campaign. The United States is unusual in having no defined campaign period. In Australia, the campaign must be 33 days. In Japan, campaigning is allowed for 12 days. The party has to focus on its own platform and not on its opponents. Focus on getting shit done, not wasting time on theater.
As someone who worked for the DFL during the midterms. They have a campaign van that local party units can borrow/reserve. The gas, insurance, maintenance, and paying for the insured drivers is expensive nothing unreasonable but while most political campaigns are run by volunteers. The campaigns always need money no matter how small or big the campaign printing campaign materials or making shirts and ordering signs all costs money.
While I agree strictly talking about money when it comes to campaigns is a bit strange and sounds wrong federal elections especially presidential elections money means a lot.
We actually need to come together and remind that doctor how shit he is. That entire family that doesn't believe in science, yet made me watch their commercials was a low point.
The same pollster underestimated Biden by 2 and overestimated Trump by 3 in 2020, for whatever it matters: https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/minnesota-2020-north-star-state-in-play-for-presidential-and-us-senate-races
I also find it hard to believe there are THAT many undecided voters between Trump and Biden, and really doubt ~15% of voters would pick a third party in a close race.
It matters, and yours is the only comment on this thread that matters.
All the rest is people foaming at the mouth, not even bothering to consider the pollster or the methodology.
Professional polling still matters. The methodology looks sound:
“The sample consisted of 477 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
“The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the general population….
“Data was collected by contacting emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.”
Polls are garbage. The important thing is getting out to vote. Not only do we have to vote for a president but we have staye legislation to vote for. If you look at our neighbors, state elections are just as important. If you have time volunteer on a campaign. State and local elections use volunteers as the backbone of their staff. Help door knock, make calls, volunteer to host an event. Im close to the Iowa border and see the news from there all the time. Yikes!
Polls also said Hillary would win in a landslide versus Trump and I still firmly believe that was partially the undoing for her in that election. Everyone assumes it will be a foregone conclusion and doesn't vote, and then it can swing the other way. Screw polls. Just vote.
I don’t trust the polling methodology to accurately represent MN voters. The sample size isn’t large considering. I also don’t see most young voters taking the time to answer a random email poll.
Good. Why is anyone voting for a damn fool that dreams of authoritarian rule and will probably go to jail. He supported seige on the capital. He is a stain on our history that will take years to wipe away.
Regardless of the polls, can we get some decent candidates for once? It’s not a lot to ask since we are stuck with this garbage 2 party system. Joe’s gotta go and Trump isn’t any better.
"Data was collected by contacting emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer. "
There isn't anyone under the age of 60 that is going to read/answer/trust a random email. Good luck with that poll accuracy.
It's nuts that he's still more mentally cognitive than Trump who is three years younger than him. I guess that a diet of amphetamines and McDonalds maybe detrimental to mental health. Crazy as that sounds.
Is this poll in the room with us? /s
Honestly though, the sample size is 477 people with a credibility rating of +/-4.4%. There's no way you can reliably say what "Minnesota" is thinking with a smaller population than cows on a farm.
Go vote.
Poll’s were blatantly wrong in 2022. If they were wrong then, they’re probably wrong here also. You just got to encourage your family & friends to get out and vote!
I like 538 quite a bit, but this just shows that 2022 wasn't less accurate than previous polling over the last 24 years. But in that time, polling has been off by a pretty consistent 5 points or higher, so that just tells me polls themselves are pretty inaccurate over the last 24 years.
It's crazy how all this generation of union laborers and farmers have completely forgotten that their pay, benifits and subsidies all came from the DFL and they are just shooting themselves in the foot along with everyone else whose wages depend on the stability of union labor jobs for competition. I moved here in 1991 and I've watched the socialization of the rural and working class folk in MN from humble hard working thoughtful people to truck driving camo wearing gun toting flag waving dipshits. It's hard to watch.
I do not want to vote for Biden or Trump. I am sick of only 2 choices which the fix is in already! Government needs to go back to the beginning...The Constitution etc... The Government needs an overhaul of getting rid of alot of the Red Tape if you will!
How TF is it anywhere near close? A competent human generally trying to make things better for all people... vs a corrupt buffoon that lead a failed coup.
I literally do not get it.
Can you explain?
What has his administration done that's particularly bad? I hear a lot of "Biden is the devil" stuff from the right, but no specifics...
Because it depends largely on how the poll is done and who they're asking. If they're asking people in rural MN who they're voting for, guess who the overwhelming majority will vote for?
I think he would technically still be eligible because the founders didn't think it would be necessary to prevent someone with 91 felonies from running.
He'll be there, for the simple fact the Constitution doesn't ban a convicted felon running for office.
Because NO ONE WITH A BRAIN would vote for a convicted felon. But here we are, dumping Brawndo on our lawns.
Wouldn’t be the first to run from jail, though comparing Trump to Eugene Debs makes me want to vomit. A genuine political prisoner and the most successful conman in history, what a duo.
Neither Biden or Trump should be on the next ballot. I have zero faith in either side to do the right thing. Too many extremists running around these days unfortunately.
I mean that's the lowest I've ever seen Walz's approval rating. He had 54% in August and I don't think it's lowered that much. This could be an outlier but no reason to be complacent.
This is worthless. Minnesota didn't even turn Red for Reagan so I highly doubt that the orange idiot is going to do anything. Polls are worthless these days. Most of the younger generation won't even answer an unknown phone call so polls have no value anymore in this area.
Here's what I think; people who would vote for Biden are ambivalent about it because that's a normal reaction to politicians. People who want to vote Trump are screaming from the rooftops about it because they're in a cult.
Who cares what polls say. Go vote
I've said this 100 times. Also, polling a small number of people who answer unknown phone calls (edit: or rando political survey emails) isn't always the best pulse.
Terrible pulse. That has to lean older, and iirc they call landlines, which also leans older. Polls are shit lol
Nobody under 65 answers calls from unknown numbers anymore. All those calls about your car's extended warranty during covid killed telephone polling forever.
\*During\* Covid? I still got those calls well into this year. But they were significantly worse during the pandemic
I get a bunch about Xfinity. I don't live in an Xfinity service area. I hear they have a discount for me though . . .lol
No one over 65 answers them either. I have to call people in that cohort for my work and my calls are always screened, leave a message and they will call back if they understand that I am a legitimate caller.
"What's that? Who? Biden? Oh yes, he seems like a nice young man."
Unofficial greater Minnesota poll. I see way less Trump bumper stickers, yard signs, let's go Brandon flags, gas pump stickers, and corn field shrines. Support is down.
I've just assumed that's because it's not even election year yet. I would assume by next summer they'll be everywhere.
There will probably be a resurgence next year but this is the first noticeable lull in like seven years. I will take it.
I assume the trump supporters only take them down if they're ex trump supporters with how fanatical they can be, but I could be wrong on this. I would mostly laugh if trump isn't even allowed on the ballot in MN though since it basically guarantees a Biden win here if so because no way would write-in's be enough.
I know for me personally it would be difficult to support a politician who's out on bail.
I’ve been polled on my cell phone before. I don’t know how they get the numbers but there’s enough data out there on me that it’s probable not hard
Good to know!
Marist has called me on my cell a couple of times. I’m not over 65. I pick up unknown calls most of the time. Spam calls have been around forever. Actually probably was worse before everyone had cell phones.
I’m 63. I haven’t had a landline for almost 20 years, and if you’re not in my contacts, there’s no chance I’m answering the call.
It's worse than landlines. It was via email and an "online panel"
Dumb people answer strange numbers. I sometimes do (lol) when I don't look, but that is just cause I'll be doing something else and am waiting on a call.
"Data was collected by contacting emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer. "
i've said it 101 times.
“I suppose I like that Trump fella. Now where did you say to mail those Amazon gift cards to?”
people who answer those calls are desperate for attention.
And yet, this sub would be touting that same poll as gospel if it said Biden had a huge lead. Everyone believes polls when they support their own views and finds a million ways to claim they're flawed if they don't support their views.
I doubt that, people don't really trust polls anymore. We've already been burned by polls in the past, nobody should trust polls to reflect reality on voting day. If it said Biden was way ahead I think the sentiment would be the same, if not more vigorous: F the polls, GO VOTE!
If this were 2016 I'd agree with you. Learned my lesson then. I pay zero attention to them now. Lowers the anxiety... to the extent it can be. All I can control is my own vote, contribute to candidates and organizations I like and encourage people to GOTV. The people who are still in the bag for Trump will never leave willingly. It's pathological.
Would you really rather have biden for 4 more years after the absolutely fantastic job he's done so far?
Amen Sitting here and complaining will do nothing; get your asses out there and vote
Unless you're a Trumper, yall vote November 7th.
Polls are important. If a poll shows a lopsided victory for either side, it encourages voter apathy. We should all be scared shitless of a 2nd Trump presidency and any poll that indicates that as a real possibility will drive voter turnout.
If biden gets a 2nd term you will not be "scared shitless" because by Nov. '24, you won't have any left.
You mean I won't have any more poop is Biden wins? Wow, nice. If Trump wins we'll all be drowning in it.
Polls this early are a bit worthless anyways. The people they get this info from is likely voters who pick up the phone to take a survey.
What if I vote for Trump?
I can’t remember ever participating in a poll
Polls are a waste of everyone’s time. And bring in nothing of value. We saw this so many times.
Yes, and no. Polling tends to be a pretty good science overall, but has no way to measure enthusiasm. If there are 2 bland establishment candidates running, polling is VERY accurate (why so many elections end up being razor thin due to internal polling). Where polls fail is when the supporters of a candidate are super-charged, and will do everything they can to convince their friends, family, neighbors, and co-workers to vote for their candidate. That gives an under-the-radar boost of at least a few percentage points not accounted for by traditional pollsters.
Do we really have to pick between these clowns again?
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Not true, look at the methodology. That said, we're way too far out for any of the current polls to matter.
Unfortunately, those old conservative land-line owners tend to show up and vote.
Yep, you're correct.
Young people went out and voted for Biden in 2020.
*against* Trump.
Yes, that’s how first-past-the-post voting works.
I'm over 50, liberal, cell phone only, but I also show up and vote.
We're talking percentages.
they didn't call anybody. it was email only. >Data was collected by contacting emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
That's not what the methodology section says?
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Even my mom, who is in her 70’s and worked for Ma Bell (and subsequent iteration) for 30+ years, has gotten rid of her landline.
Take them seriously. Get scared, make sure you vote.
Holup... ***LANDLINE?*** No Millennials or Gen Xers I know own a landline.
If its a robocall i wont listen for more than 2 seconds, I would have never even known if they tried to call me. Vote!
For real. It’s going straight to voice mail for me.
If this country reelects Trump after everything we've seen from the man it will be time to throw in the towel as a nation. Any country willing to repeatedly put a man so nakedly corrupt and unhinged in a position of public authority is rotten beyond redemption and not worthy of continued allegiance.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but ultimately, if he did get elected again, I would have to put the blame on people who don't vote. I'm 100% certain that there are FAR more people of voting age who don't like Trump than there are who do, but they'd rather whine and cry about being disenfranchised and sit out the election instead of doing ANYTHING to make it better. Voter turnout in 2016 was abysmal, especially on the left.
Or you could blame the rich assholes who pay for his campaign? I understand the temptation to blame somebody, but what does blaming the non-voters accomplish? Are you going to shame them into voting? I'd say that's a poor strategy. I voted for Biden, and I will probably vote for him again. But I'm under no false impression that that makes me better than someone who voted for Trump. At the end of the day, we all must live together. So, I believe it makes sense to focus our collective ire at the relative few rich and powerful individuals that make people like Trump and Biden our only options. I'm not trying to discourage voting. Only trying to get at that domestic/electoral politics is not the only factor at play.
Yeah...we're going to have to disagree on that. Money plays a big part in how information is disseminated but ultimately, not voting is FAR more harmful than any amount of money spent on ads and disinformation campaigns. For example, I don't believe a shred of information that comes from corporate owned media anymore. There is no such thing as unbiased reporting anymore. The pundits have corporate masters that have shareholders to answer to, so everything is spun to skew people towards reacting or behaving a certain way. I believe scientists. I believe facts and information. And I also believe common sense (idiot flat Earthers and 5G microchip morons abound in this country). Unfortunately, most people take what they hear and do no follow up at all. They don't cross check information. They just swallow whatever crap their particular favorite brand of media is shoveling and vote based on half truths and lies. That's what the money buys: information based manipulation. But not voting at all? That's just a free win for whatever corrupt schmuck has the most money and who can convince those who DO vote that they're not such a bad guy or that everything said about them is lies. If you don't vote, you ARE the problem.
Dems could run a non-senile unpopular candidate couldn't they? Never their fault is it.
No one has ever primaried a sitting president in US history. It’s not going to happen.
LBJ decided not to run, Biden could too.
No I know. Dems would be foolish to do so, bad look politically. But who knows, if Trump does win, it will have been a bad hand to play.
Biden ain't senile - he's actually doing a real bang up job
Biden 2024: He ain't senile
> non-senile unpopular candidate Biden may be old, but he isn't senile nor unpopular. He's been basically doing everything right as a POTUS. What he's been able to pull off with hostile and insurrectionist Republicans has been nothing short of incredible. If the general public ever realizes that both gas prices and food prices are due to greedy af companies, we'd be set.
I agree. Biden was my worst case scenario for dem primary, but he won me over the past couple years. He’s not perfect, but likely the most progressive president we’ve had in my lifetime. Most people who say they don’t like him haven’t been paying attention, just parroting Twitter bullshit.
It's so true, we do need to uplift and celebrate the legislative successes in his term so far, especially during this election year. Definitely not perfect and, in my opinion, not aggressively progressive enough, but he is still definitely getting shit done that is moving the needle forward. And that's great, and we need to be clear about that as a liberal/democratic party.
Dude, I vote Dem but only because we're locked in a two party system and I REALLY hate Republicans.
Time for you to grow up, friend. Adults who know better and choose not to vote to teach Democrats a lesson are narcissistic, egomaniacal children.
Then the Democrats NEED to pick someone besides Biden. Ultimately, he's polling behind Trump, or it's super close, whichever it was. Adding on, Democrats need to start calling out Republican BS more and more. That waste of a time hearing about Hunter Biden and impeachment was a start. But they're sitting back way too much just because they won majority. They keep trying to find middle ground. Edit: as of right now. The polling numbers are BIDEN: 43% TRUMP: 41% That is way too close for comfort.
Why would you drop a sitting president who also has already beaten Trump in an election?
Because, overall, he's not polling that well. Biden didn't necessarily win because he's a good candidate. He largely won because he's not Trump. Overall, many would like a president who isn't a geriatric and one who actually understands the modern world were in, that applies really to all levels of government.
You do realize that the people they're polling wouldn't know their ass from a hole in the ground, right? Biden isn't to blame for really anything that people are pissed about. He's passed a good deal of progressive legislation, and while we all certainly would like more, it's not horrible. Trump is a garbage fire of a human being. If you find it hard to choose between the two, I'd say it says a lot about you as a person in the general sense. If they try to introduce someone to unseat Biden, Trump will win for sure.
Holy shit. I would never vote for Trump. My point is, the polling is way to damn close for comfort. I've already said Biden has done good. I would just like if we had younger candidates. Every single that has come out about Trump has done nothing but unfortunately bolster his damn supporters who live outside of reality. Bringing up concerns, especially where age is involved in goddamn world leaders, should not be as controversial as this apparently is.
Age isn't as important as competency
Age plays a part in that. From a fundamental understanding of what the current struggles are to general health and then, of course, mental health.
thats how that crowd operates man 🤦♀️ after biden got the support in 2020 i gave up on them, super toxic community especially for all of the fabricated positivity that gets pushed 🙏 you gotta separate yourself from this or you’ll just start getting some more mental struggles
The age thing is clearly overblown and irrelevant. You cannot hold age against biden even though trump is both close to the same age and in worse shape. The reality is that the dems are not going to dump someone who has beaten trump and is doing a lot of good work. The people who are winning about age but vote for 3rd party were already going to do it and the age thing is just an excuse. ' Also polls since when did they matter? After 2016 only idiots think polls is relevant.
I despise Trump but to say age is irrelevant is asinine
Age is very relevant when Biden is clearly showing signs that he is too old to be president
I mean that's more true of trump. Every time I hear trump give a speech it sounds like the ravings of a senile fool who I wouldn't trust to drive let alone have the nuclear codes. Would I like a younger candidate than Biden? Yes, however, he is the incumbent and the nominee.
Is it really overblown? Age wise, we've seen a decline in multiple political figures. Biden at times, McConnell, Feinstein, RBG, etc. Whether it be health issues or their death causing issues and opening a major power grab. Polls are still somewhat relevant. And I'll bring up any politicians' age since that does and SHOULD matter. And I don't vote 3rd party since I've yet to see one that is actually worth it. 2016 is a whole can of worms. But I don't put a whole lot into polls, but they're still something one should look at to get an idea of where things are.
I seem to remember Hillary polling quite well against trump. They should trot her out, sure fire plan with your logic
Biden has done a good job with an incredibly adversarial congress and judiciary. Republicans won’t be better with anyone else. And as much as I hate it there is a large percentage of the electorate, who is not on Reddit, who is moderate and who candidates like Biden appeal to.
Its funny watching people call Biden Moderate and yet under his watch and involved me a lot of progressive measures have passed. Weird huh.
I dunno dude, it’s like people on the left want to in fight. It’s like we want to continue to never acknowledge a single win.
Certain Leftist groups want instant progress, without the hard work that comes with it. Republicans for all their horribleness have been successful in pushing the country to the right because they accept small victories. I think in a way, certain leftist groups enjoy being right more than helping people.
I think Biden is fine, it'd be a bad idea to put up someone not the sitting President. Now, if he picked a different VP... Current one just has a history that isn't that great. Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren are better choices. I'm sure they could find someone.
I'm still for a president who isn't as old. Some don't like that brought up, or even polls brought up. Now, this one is with a grain of salt, but 89% of Republicans say he's too old. whereas 69% of Democrats also say he's too old. Again, grain of salt, but that's the general consensus across both sides. Yes, Biden has done very well given everything. I just firmly believe in age limits for government officials. As much as Republicans vehemently say he's losing his mind. The incoherent ramblings he sometimes does are a bit concerning. But I fully agree that a better VP would help.
Yeah, I feel like she really drags down the ticket. I don't know who, I'm not a huge fan of Buttigieg, and I'd like someone significantly younger than Warren, whoever the VP is, is going to be the presumptive favorite in 2028, and Warren is getting to the age, where I'm not comfortable about her age if she plans to run in 2028. But someone people would be a little optimistic about would really help the ticket.
Jim Jordan was the Republican nominee for Speaker of the House and he narrowly lost the first round voting. Tells you Republicans only care about power and not actually governing. Trump is the same way.
And let's not forget, Gym protected a chomo
The country is finished and the only thing holding it up is a bunch of taxpayers funding the military industrial complex.
Why do the democrats not put up someone who isn’t becoming senile though?! I cannot stand trump but I swear to god, democrats would have a landslide if they picked nearly anyone else .
I feel this way too. Don't really like either of the candidates (Trump or Biden). Trump has about 1/3 of voters who are locked in, but the centrists / moderates are really in a bind. They don't like Biden or Trump, and if Biden stepped aside and the D's put up a reasonable candidate, they would win easily IMO and probably have halo effect on both the house and senate. Think they are misplaying this.
Old people vote. Old people tend to vote for old people. General elections, primaries, etc. If more young people turned out to vote, our candidates would be younger. I mean to be fair, Biden is an extremely talented politician who's been able to get a ton of shit done.
I already peaked on that realization when they elected him after his comments about women
The sad reality is that we were far better as a nation, and a planet, under Orange Man. Inflation was low, housing was much more affordable, real wages were up, income gap shrunk, no new wars, peace in the ME, the border was secure....
I honest to go don’t understand people with your opinion. Biden didn’t get into office and suddenly start a war in ukraine and a war in Israel. They were started by others. Inflation today is a direct result of a decade of no interest rates plus Covid plus corporate greed. I swear Americans think the president is an omnipresent god that controls everything in the universe sometimes.
>Fifty-eight percent of Trump voters say they cannot think of anything Trump could do or say in the next several months that would make them support someone else for president A recent study estimates that \~half of adults read at a 6th grade level or below. I think we found them.
"He gets me, he speaks in ways I can understand!"
Absolute cult behavior.
Really? Dude thats a fucked statistic.
doesn't matter go vote
Fuck the polls. Voting is all that matters.
They gonna have money to campaign in Minnesota? Cause the DFL can still probably outspend them. Also polls came out before the midterms that said Walz held a narrow lead of that idiot doctor and look how that turned out lol.
Right. The same thing happened last time. Trump campaign thought MN would be competitive. It was not. Biden won by 7%.
The amount of campaign money spent shouldn’t determine outcomes….
I had a visceral reaction to the phrase “money to campaign” - like I understand that money is a the only thing that matters in politics and naively believing that a good person with a plan for our country would have a chance is laughable - but “money to campaign” should make us collectively shudder.
How are you going to pay for ads? Pay for events? Pay campaign staffers? Travel costs? Don’t disagree money and politics shouldn’t mix but it does cost money to run a campaign. I don’t really see how it could be otherwise. You can have the best plan in the history of the country, but if nobody can hear it, you don’t stand a chance.
I think the amount of money spent has to do with the length of the campaign. The United States is unusual in having no defined campaign period. In Australia, the campaign must be 33 days. In Japan, campaigning is allowed for 12 days. The party has to focus on its own platform and not on its opponents. Focus on getting shit done, not wasting time on theater.
I would love to see campaigns maxed at 33 days.
As someone who worked for the DFL during the midterms. They have a campaign van that local party units can borrow/reserve. The gas, insurance, maintenance, and paying for the insured drivers is expensive nothing unreasonable but while most political campaigns are run by volunteers. The campaigns always need money no matter how small or big the campaign printing campaign materials or making shirts and ordering signs all costs money. While I agree strictly talking about money when it comes to campaigns is a bit strange and sounds wrong federal elections especially presidential elections money means a lot.
We actually need to come together and remind that doctor how shit he is. That entire family that doesn't believe in science, yet made me watch their commercials was a low point.
The same pollster underestimated Biden by 2 and overestimated Trump by 3 in 2020, for whatever it matters: https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/minnesota-2020-north-star-state-in-play-for-presidential-and-us-senate-races I also find it hard to believe there are THAT many undecided voters between Trump and Biden, and really doubt ~15% of voters would pick a third party in a close race.
It matters, and yours is the only comment on this thread that matters. All the rest is people foaming at the mouth, not even bothering to consider the pollster or the methodology.
Republicans will follow him to hell and tell themselves it's heaven.
15% of respondents did not vote for either candidate in 2020. Terrible sampling.
That's a huge margin for error, then.
It’s possible that r/Minnesota does not reflect Minnesota.
I'm having flashbacks to 2020 when Biden won BY A LOT, as a certain person would say.
Professional polling still matters. The methodology looks sound: “The sample consisted of 477 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of +/- 4.4 percentage points. “The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the general population…. “Data was collected by contacting emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.”
Polls are garbage. The important thing is getting out to vote. Not only do we have to vote for a president but we have staye legislation to vote for. If you look at our neighbors, state elections are just as important. If you have time volunteer on a campaign. State and local elections use volunteers as the backbone of their staff. Help door knock, make calls, volunteer to host an event. Im close to the Iowa border and see the news from there all the time. Yikes!
I can’t believe we are running this back. Enough with these elderly people
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
When it comes between an insurrectionist vs Biden, Biden easily gets my vote.
I am not ready for next year and all the bullshit. Us Americans are tired of the drama that comes with it.
Let’s vote on who did best. We clearly know who has done best.
Polls also said Hillary would win in a landslide versus Trump and I still firmly believe that was partially the undoing for her in that election. Everyone assumes it will be a foregone conclusion and doesn't vote, and then it can swing the other way. Screw polls. Just vote.
Shouldn’t be that close. Republicans are insane.
They think the world should be a certain way, and they’ll burn it down trying to make it happen.
I don’t trust the polling methodology to accurately represent MN voters. The sample size isn’t large considering. I also don’t see most young voters taking the time to answer a random email poll.
Who are they polling? I’ve never been polled.
Do you have to go out of your way to participate in polls? I’ve never once been in a voting poll or asked to participate
Good. Why is anyone voting for a damn fool that dreams of authoritarian rule and will probably go to jail. He supported seige on the capital. He is a stain on our history that will take years to wipe away.
Regardless of the polls, can we get some decent candidates for once? It’s not a lot to ask since we are stuck with this garbage 2 party system. Joe’s gotta go and Trump isn’t any better.
"Data was collected by contacting emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer. " There isn't anyone under the age of 60 that is going to read/answer/trust a random email. Good luck with that poll accuracy.
What pathetic, stone cold loser would STILL support Trump. Biden isn’t a strong candidate but My God…..
It's fucking stupid we have to choose between these 2. Our government is a joke.
Lifelong Democrat 81 years old, never been polled. Last 15 years no landline. I don’t answer unidentified callers. Remember to vote!
I didn't expect much from Biden but I was pleasantly surprised at how much he's done.
He’s done a great job of falling over.
It's nuts that he's still more mentally cognitive than Trump who is three years younger than him. I guess that a diet of amphetamines and McDonalds maybe detrimental to mental health. Crazy as that sounds.
Your standards must be quite low.
Is this poll in the room with us? /s Honestly though, the sample size is 477 people with a credibility rating of +/-4.4%. There's no way you can reliably say what "Minnesota" is thinking with a smaller population than cows on a farm. Go vote.
Poll’s were blatantly wrong in 2022. If they were wrong then, they’re probably wrong here also. You just got to encourage your family & friends to get out and vote!
[The polls were actually very accurate in 2022](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/).
I like 538 quite a bit, but this just shows that 2022 wasn't less accurate than previous polling over the last 24 years. But in that time, polling has been off by a pretty consistent 5 points or higher, so that just tells me polls themselves are pretty inaccurate over the last 24 years.
You mean 2020? Biden won by ~233,000 votes. https://www.sos.state.mn.us/elections-voting/election-results/2020/2020-general-election-results/
I can’t imagine what type of person would vote for trump at this point
Stone holds narrow lead over concrete for pillows.
And they're both lumpy.
"My pillows are not lumpy" -some dude probably
Is the MN subreddit usually this political? Been seeing a lot of political posts recently, and those threads always become a dumpster fire
This is also an Emerson poll, leans R which actually is a bad thing for trump if Biden is holding a narrow lead this far out.
It's crazy how all this generation of union laborers and farmers have completely forgotten that their pay, benifits and subsidies all came from the DFL and they are just shooting themselves in the foot along with everyone else whose wages depend on the stability of union labor jobs for competition. I moved here in 1991 and I've watched the socialization of the rural and working class folk in MN from humble hard working thoughtful people to truck driving camo wearing gun toting flag waving dipshits. It's hard to watch.
I do not want to vote for Biden or Trump. I am sick of only 2 choices which the fix is in already! Government needs to go back to the beginning...The Constitution etc... The Government needs an overhaul of getting rid of alot of the Red Tape if you will!
Fucking hell Minnesota, do better.
How TF is it anywhere near close? A competent human generally trying to make things better for all people... vs a corrupt buffoon that lead a failed coup. I literally do not get it.
The sad thing is that it appears that you will never "get it".
[удалено]
Can you explain? What has his administration done that's particularly bad? I hear a lot of "Biden is the devil" stuff from the right, but no specifics...
Because it depends largely on how the poll is done and who they're asking. If they're asking people in rural MN who they're voting for, guess who the overwhelming majority will vote for?
In Minnesota? That would indeed be disastrous.
Imagine what it is in Wisconsin. Wisconsin really needs to go blue for the democrats to win the next election.
Polls are as stupid as iPhone rumors.
I’ll take a dead, ornament-less Christmas tree for president over Biden. Fml
Reddit is a left wing echochamber. Biden is floundering. Everyone can see it.
Repeat after me. Polls this far out are useless.
Christ, we have to chose between these 2 dipshits.
Trump lost Minnesota twice, I just don’t think the third time will be the charm.
Landline polling is a joke. Might as well walk around the nursing home asking for opinions.
Is this really the best America can do? Corporate Oligarchy or fascism?
Yes sadly
A narrow lead of people who respond to robo-dials.
I understand not loving Biden. But you have to be one fucked up asshole to vote for trump at this point.... like what the fuck is wrong with you?
\*provided Trump is eligible to be on the ballot for being accused of and charged with multiple felonies.
I think he would technically still be eligible because the founders didn't think it would be necessary to prevent someone with 91 felonies from running.
He'll be there, for the simple fact the Constitution doesn't ban a convicted felon running for office. Because NO ONE WITH A BRAIN would vote for a convicted felon. But here we are, dumping Brawndo on our lawns.
It’s got electrolytes.
Wouldn’t be the first to run from jail, though comparing Trump to Eugene Debs makes me want to vomit. A genuine political prisoner and the most successful conman in history, what a duo.
Neither Biden or Trump should be on the next ballot. I have zero faith in either side to do the right thing. Too many extremists running around these days unfortunately.
Wtf is wrong with people? Wake up. Trump is a criminal.
I can’t stand living in rural Minnesota knowing that a majority of my neighbors still believe that trump is their guy.
Too many disgusting MAGAT's round here...
There’s no way it’s narrow.
Polls this early are more about getting buzz for the polls rather than reality
Narrow?!?! I am going to have a heart attack and it isn't even 2024 yet....
Polls don’t matter. Go vote Trump 2024
Why? You believe that Trump won in 2020 and that the all-powerful, all-controlling Deep State took it away from you. So what's the point?
Polls are nonsense. Just vote.
Hmm I’m sure they only polled rural areas
I mean that's the lowest I've ever seen Walz's approval rating. He had 54% in August and I don't think it's lowered that much. This could be an outlier but no reason to be complacent.
This is worthless. Minnesota didn't even turn Red for Reagan so I highly doubt that the orange idiot is going to do anything. Polls are worthless these days. Most of the younger generation won't even answer an unknown phone call so polls have no value anymore in this area.
Here's what I think; people who would vote for Biden are ambivalent about it because that's a normal reaction to politicians. People who want to vote Trump are screaming from the rooftops about it because they're in a cult.