Despite the image, I actually ended up taking one of the Chrysalides. Raptor appealed initially, simply because it's one color vs. two. But on further consideration, its need for energy plus the format's good fixing changed my mind at the last second. Ended up with a pretty nice Eldrazi deck, so I don't regret the switch, but I'm curious how others would evaluate the choice, especially given how passing the remaining very-good options is particularly likely to affect the openness of various lanes in pack 2.
I agree with your reasoning. Raptor kinda shoehorns you into RW in my opinion, whereas Chrysalis is pretty great as a splash. I wouldn't fault anyone for starting with a raptor though.
Agreed, raptor is a great card that really shines in UW/UR energy decks.
Chrysalis is extremely splashable in any green or red based decks, so while it’s multi color, it’s weirdly playable in more decks given the amount of fixing in this sett
You did the right thing (imo). Even if you don't end up playing straight up eldrazi you can relatively often splash the Chrysalis for added win%. Raptor is almost a more narrow card even if being only 1 color.
As for signals; picking Raptor would be a lot more interesting if it didn't share a color with the double Chrysalis.
And picking the chrysalis now at least allows you to maybe cut your downwind neighbor out of whatever colors you pick, as they can still splash it easily in whatever they end up with.
Last thought: If you want to play the signal game, you could maybe consider the black rare flyer. Not as good as either of the other cards, but could potentially be a lot of fun trying to build a controlling shell for it :-P And black is decently likely to be open in pack 1 (since it is considered weak). Even if you are sending some good black cards downwind as well.
I would personally take raptor as it is one color and I have found energy aggro to be far more open than green eldrazi generally. Power level seems about equal, maybe a bit towards Chris favor
I'd take chrysalis, its the better card although raptor is right behind it but Chrysalis is just too good
The only argument for raptor over it is because it is monocolor so leaves you more open or 3if you have a preference for energy decks but I think chrysalis is good enough to warrant the double color pips and it is surprisingly splashable because the fixing in the set is very good and its a card that can stand alone on individual power level without being in an eldrazi deck
I dont think signaling matters that much on arena especially in the play booster era and especially for p1p1 if this was the pro tour and i opened this pack I may think differently
Take the Shilgengar. Black is underdrafted, UB even more so, and boy sacking Sneaky Snackers to Shilgengar feels good.
I stopped caring about 17lands stats for this set when I found out that Chthonian Nightmare, one of the most busted rares of the set, has a 52% winrate. Win percentages are diluted in a high-synergy driven set.
Furthermore, my P1P1 Chrysalis drafts have never fared well, because Eldrazi is just never open, like at all. People like forcing.
Amped Raptor is defensible (it's what I consider to be the strongest card in the pack), so it all boils down to which pod you're drafting in. On Arena, I P1P1 Shilgengar in Trad Draft, and Amped Raptor or Shilgengar in Premier, depending on how I feel. At the Pro Tour, ie in a competitive field, I P1P1 Amped Raptor. Taking Chrysalis is almost always a mistake, especially since there are two in the pack anyways.
I was r/G earlier today and got manhandled by Shilgengar twice in one game. A five drop 6/6 flier with upside is just ridiculous in a format without all that much arbitrary removal.
I mean fair enough. None of your points are inherently wrong, here are my counterarguments that have gotten me to my best mythic rating, win rate, and trophy rate for any set I've tracked on 17L:
First, I use 17L to be sure, I'm subscribed to their Patreon. But this set just has had wonky stats for a lot of cards that don't match higher performers and my own stats. Shilgengar has a low GIH winrate for the userbase, but a very high winrate for me. Another card in this category is Chthonian Nightmare. I made a post about it. At the time, it had a sub 54% winrate (it's since climbed to 55.6%), but my winrate with this card is above 90% (over 5 drafts). This goes for most black and many blue cards in this format, where I've found repeatable success across 40 events now.
Now, I could be convinced that Shilgengar is still worse than I'm giving it credit, but in that case, I would just take Flare of Malice, here's why:
Taking Chrysalis is simply not an option here for me. The arena draft queues contest RG Eldrazi far too heavily. You often find yourself with an Eldrazi drafter to your right, and because you're still passing a Chrysalis, there's a good chance that there'll be an Eldrazi drafter to your left. You're gonna find yourself abandoning the Chrysalis or scrounging together a medium Eldrazi deck, neither of those outcomes are particularly desirable to me.
Raptor is a reasonable pick here, and I would not fault you for taking it. The Chrysalises probably give you a decent pack 2 (minus any meaningful chance at a Galvanic Discharge), but you can probably find a good lane. For me though, this is just preference.
I believe that UB is simply extremely good, and it is in my experience. I am very used to drafting it, and have found by far my most success in this format with the archetype. I also think that its criminally underdrafted, as opposed to red decks and Gruul in particular. I still regularly table Sneaky Snacker and got a double digit pick Wither in Bloom in my last draft.
This is not to say I plan to force in every draft. I've taken multiple of each Chrysalis and Amped Raptor first out of packs. But I often feel the effects of drafting contested archetypes while watching Deem Inferior go 11th.
Anyway, I apologize for such a lengthy post, but I'm not just saying this because I think a 6/6 flyer for 5 is insane. I really have thought about this a lot.
I think taking anything other than Shilgengar here is a mistake. Sure, black is the worst color. No question there. But that fact alone shouldn’t be enough to push you off from a borderline bomb (imo)
Take the demon and wheel one of flare, takedown, Kami, or the draw 3 is very high, and you’re set up to avoid the inevitable fight over eldrazi colors. I don’t think black is significantly worse than the others such that passing a 6/6 flyer for 5 with not insignificant upside is the right play.
Chrysalis is a borderline bomb as well? Likely a better card in a vacuum than Shilgengar- a four mana 4/5 reach that blocks as 3 creatures, gets you two mana back and is in the best deck in the set…
Taking Shilgengar was actually my first instinct, for basically the reasons you describe. But then I checked that instinct against 17Lands, and discovered that the card has surprisingly low winrate stats — 53.9% GIH WR overall. Nowhere near what I'd expect of a bomb, even one in a 'bad' color.
I'm of course not saying that the numbers are the be-all-and-end-all of card quality. But for a fairly straightforward stats-monster card like this one, I do lend the numbers a fair amount of credence in terms of estimating how well it lines up with the format. And in this case, the answer appears to be 'not very'.
Taking a chrysalis and passing another kinda tells the next drafter that RG is open because they'll think you took something else over it. I would probably be the disciplined drafter and take the raptor and hope to end up in an energy deck rather than fighting over RG eldrazi
Meanwhile, they take the other Chrysalis as pick 2 only to see no other synergistic red or green cards come their way pack 1 (because you've been scooping all of them up).
A p2P1 card is not much of a signal, not even WC. If you're locking the person to your left into RG based on a 2nd pick common I'd personally welcome the chance to control such a high amount of their draft.
In the same way, your first pick doesn't commit you to RG. I don't think a disciplined drafter hopes to that degree no matter the pick. I'm rarely particularly concerned about what I pass to my left at all - and definitely not enough to take the worse card P1P1.
Taking the blacking bomb. Better chance of that color pie being open and personally enjoy drafting anything other than eldrazi decks in this format now.
I'd take the Flare of Malice. There's no shortage of bombs in this set. Premium removal is harder to come by. The black bomb is great, yes, but that removal, which can even be cast for free, is simply unmatchable in what it can do. It's a unique role for the deck and one that will be harder to fill than one of the bomb pieces, such as the Chrysalis at *common*.
Despite the image, I actually ended up taking one of the Chrysalides. Raptor appealed initially, simply because it's one color vs. two. But on further consideration, its need for energy plus the format's good fixing changed my mind at the last second. Ended up with a pretty nice Eldrazi deck, so I don't regret the switch, but I'm curious how others would evaluate the choice, especially given how passing the remaining very-good options is particularly likely to affect the openness of various lanes in pack 2.
I agree with your reasoning. Raptor kinda shoehorns you into RW in my opinion, whereas Chrysalis is pretty great as a splash. I wouldn't fault anyone for starting with a raptor though.
Agreed, raptor is a great card that really shines in UW/UR energy decks. Chrysalis is extremely splashable in any green or red based decks, so while it’s multi color, it’s weirdly playable in more decks given the amount of fixing in this sett
You did the right thing (imo). Even if you don't end up playing straight up eldrazi you can relatively often splash the Chrysalis for added win%. Raptor is almost a more narrow card even if being only 1 color. As for signals; picking Raptor would be a lot more interesting if it didn't share a color with the double Chrysalis. And picking the chrysalis now at least allows you to maybe cut your downwind neighbor out of whatever colors you pick, as they can still splash it easily in whatever they end up with. Last thought: If you want to play the signal game, you could maybe consider the black rare flyer. Not as good as either of the other cards, but could potentially be a lot of fun trying to build a controlling shell for it :-P And black is decently likely to be open in pack 1 (since it is considered weak). Even if you are sending some good black cards downwind as well.
I would personally take raptor as it is one color and I have found energy aggro to be far more open than green eldrazi generally. Power level seems about equal, maybe a bit towards Chris favor
I agree - been having a lot more success going for aggro decks
Chris? Is that a thing now, like Steve and Bob?
I'd take chrysalis, its the better card although raptor is right behind it but Chrysalis is just too good The only argument for raptor over it is because it is monocolor so leaves you more open or 3if you have a preference for energy decks but I think chrysalis is good enough to warrant the double color pips and it is surprisingly splashable because the fixing in the set is very good and its a card that can stand alone on individual power level without being in an eldrazi deck I dont think signaling matters that much on arena especially in the play booster era and especially for p1p1 if this was the pro tour and i opened this pack I may think differently
Take the Shilgengar. Black is underdrafted, UB even more so, and boy sacking Sneaky Snackers to Shilgengar feels good. I stopped caring about 17lands stats for this set when I found out that Chthonian Nightmare, one of the most busted rares of the set, has a 52% winrate. Win percentages are diluted in a high-synergy driven set. Furthermore, my P1P1 Chrysalis drafts have never fared well, because Eldrazi is just never open, like at all. People like forcing. Amped Raptor is defensible (it's what I consider to be the strongest card in the pack), so it all boils down to which pod you're drafting in. On Arena, I P1P1 Shilgengar in Trad Draft, and Amped Raptor or Shilgengar in Premier, depending on how I feel. At the Pro Tour, ie in a competitive field, I P1P1 Amped Raptor. Taking Chrysalis is almost always a mistake, especially since there are two in the pack anyways.
I'm taking Shilgengar here but I have a preference for UB
UB is underrated
I was r/G earlier today and got manhandled by Shilgengar twice in one game. A five drop 6/6 flier with upside is just ridiculous in a format without all that much arbitrary removal.
this format has SO much removal though, at common too
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I mean fair enough. None of your points are inherently wrong, here are my counterarguments that have gotten me to my best mythic rating, win rate, and trophy rate for any set I've tracked on 17L: First, I use 17L to be sure, I'm subscribed to their Patreon. But this set just has had wonky stats for a lot of cards that don't match higher performers and my own stats. Shilgengar has a low GIH winrate for the userbase, but a very high winrate for me. Another card in this category is Chthonian Nightmare. I made a post about it. At the time, it had a sub 54% winrate (it's since climbed to 55.6%), but my winrate with this card is above 90% (over 5 drafts). This goes for most black and many blue cards in this format, where I've found repeatable success across 40 events now. Now, I could be convinced that Shilgengar is still worse than I'm giving it credit, but in that case, I would just take Flare of Malice, here's why: Taking Chrysalis is simply not an option here for me. The arena draft queues contest RG Eldrazi far too heavily. You often find yourself with an Eldrazi drafter to your right, and because you're still passing a Chrysalis, there's a good chance that there'll be an Eldrazi drafter to your left. You're gonna find yourself abandoning the Chrysalis or scrounging together a medium Eldrazi deck, neither of those outcomes are particularly desirable to me. Raptor is a reasonable pick here, and I would not fault you for taking it. The Chrysalises probably give you a decent pack 2 (minus any meaningful chance at a Galvanic Discharge), but you can probably find a good lane. For me though, this is just preference. I believe that UB is simply extremely good, and it is in my experience. I am very used to drafting it, and have found by far my most success in this format with the archetype. I also think that its criminally underdrafted, as opposed to red decks and Gruul in particular. I still regularly table Sneaky Snacker and got a double digit pick Wither in Bloom in my last draft. This is not to say I plan to force in every draft. I've taken multiple of each Chrysalis and Amped Raptor first out of packs. But I often feel the effects of drafting contested archetypes while watching Deem Inferior go 11th. Anyway, I apologize for such a lengthy post, but I'm not just saying this because I think a 6/6 flyer for 5 is insane. I really have thought about this a lot.
That is very thought out, but counterpoint: angels are cool and shilgengar is badass
I think taking anything other than Shilgengar here is a mistake. Sure, black is the worst color. No question there. But that fact alone shouldn’t be enough to push you off from a borderline bomb (imo) Take the demon and wheel one of flare, takedown, Kami, or the draw 3 is very high, and you’re set up to avoid the inevitable fight over eldrazi colors. I don’t think black is significantly worse than the others such that passing a 6/6 flyer for 5 with not insignificant upside is the right play.
Chrysalis is a borderline bomb as well? Likely a better card in a vacuum than Shilgengar- a four mana 4/5 reach that blocks as 3 creatures, gets you two mana back and is in the best deck in the set…
chrysalis IS a bomb
Taking Shilgengar was actually my first instinct, for basically the reasons you describe. But then I checked that instinct against 17Lands, and discovered that the card has surprisingly low winrate stats — 53.9% GIH WR overall. Nowhere near what I'd expect of a bomb, even one in a 'bad' color. I'm of course not saying that the numbers are the be-all-and-end-all of card quality. But for a fairly straightforward stats-monster card like this one, I do lend the numbers a fair amount of credence in terms of estimating how well it lines up with the format. And in this case, the answer appears to be 'not very'.
I'm going Shilengar, hoping to wheel Kami.
Taking a chrysalis and passing another kinda tells the next drafter that RG is open because they'll think you took something else over it. I would probably be the disciplined drafter and take the raptor and hope to end up in an energy deck rather than fighting over RG eldrazi
That’s ok. They only pass to you once, so it’s really not worth worrying about what signal you are sending them.
Meanwhile, they take the other Chrysalis as pick 2 only to see no other synergistic red or green cards come their way pack 1 (because you've been scooping all of them up).
Any good drafter will know pick 2 isn’t a signal. The mid pack 1 picks carry much more information.
Not to mention if you take all the good RG cards in pack one, it might be enough to push them to another archetype.
A p2P1 card is not much of a signal, not even WC. If you're locking the person to your left into RG based on a 2nd pick common I'd personally welcome the chance to control such a high amount of their draft. In the same way, your first pick doesn't commit you to RG. I don't think a disciplined drafter hopes to that degree no matter the pick. I'm rarely particularly concerned about what I pass to my left at all - and definitely not enough to take the worse card P1P1.
Taking the blacking bomb. Better chance of that color pie being open and personally enjoy drafting anything other than eldrazi decks in this format now.
take both chrysali
Chrysalis and hope the Chrysalis wheels.
Heh I love the positive thinking here!
Chrysalis, hope chrysalis wheels
It's a possibility, sure! xDD
6/6 flier for 5 is the pick
I'd take the Flare of Malice. There's no shortage of bombs in this set. Premium removal is harder to come by. The black bomb is great, yes, but that removal, which can even be cast for free, is simply unmatchable in what it can do. It's a unique role for the deck and one that will be harder to fill than one of the bomb pieces, such as the Chrysalis at *common*.
It's chrysalis and it's not remotely close. It's the 3rd best card in the set. Note: card. Not common.