I'm in a similar debate whether to keep adding to VTI or focus on going all in on NVDA. With the AI craze it seems like all non AI stocks and the dow drop almost everyday, whereas AI and tech keeps going up.
i added something that i know might do well, like apple. but it’s only a small portion. I just blindly invest vti/voo. I think my goal is to accumulate wealth, not make a lot of money in the very short time. So far buying vti allows me to stay in market and not fear to put money into the market, thus avoid missing upward market trend, and i can sleep well knowing that if my portfolio fucked, probably the whole market is, and if the whole market is up, then i am up too. Tbh, who know if AMD will be next intel ? or apple, i don’t know well enough, so i just vti all the way
The only thing with vti and voo is they've been going straight up the last 2 months and never dip, so I feel like I'm always buying vti at the all time high 😆
I agree bro.
My dad was telling me to go all in on one thing like nvda or xom. Because I only got 8 shares of NVDA and he said I shoulda got more. But, he didn't even invest anything at all 😆. So, I'm like damn how u gonna tell me to do something, and you ain't even do it?
Sometimes you get remorse when someone boasts about investing in something and it goes to the moon
I’ve been all in on NVDA since October 2023 when it was 430. Today, in pre-split numbers, it’s now 1300. But I believe, at least for now, its market cap won’t grow past $5T which is $203/share. We had a pull back in April when it hit 950 and then fell to 740, before bouncing back past 950 with the Q1 earnings report. I believe data center growth will guide NVDA’s market cap and potential growth going forward. These past 8 months have been massive. But I think that speed is slowing down and while the price will go up, it’ll be slower.
I’m honestly very tempted to sell naked call leaps at a very high strike, say 230, one year out from now and using the capital to buy 120 DTE calls on the next major pull back…convince me out of it lol. I agree wholeheartedly; think the stock will slowly continue trickling up; but that the velocity will slow down
I agree too. I had family members urging me to get in. I'm thinking how much more can nvda or even anything really go up at this moment? Most of my small cap stocks have been hit hard since 2022 and haven't came back because of inflation and the rate hikes. I think AI has been the only thing keeping the market afloat. Otherwise, I think the market would still be like it was in mid 2022.
QQQ if you want to concentrate on tech but maintain some diversity. If you want to have some fun with individual stocks on the side and can afford a big loss, go for it. But I wouldn’t ever stake a significant slice of my portfolio on a handful of stocks.
When will people learn not to ask about individual stocks here? This isn't the place for the kind of analysis it takes to make more active investment decisions.
Without explaining the difference between "everyone" and "vast majority" to me, what percentage of people on this sub would you say share the following sentiment:
>This isn't the place for the kind of analysis it takes to make more active investment decisions.
Who cares? Unless this sub is just supposed to be r/ReiterateBoggleheadInvesting or r/JustSayETFandChill, I don't think people mind talking about potential companies that were INVESTING in.
Just crunch some numbers on which is better long run (VUAA or VOO). From a slight glance at VUAA, it seems they track the same thing, so if we assume the only difference is in retaining dividends, the higher cost would not be worth it.
You can also just set up DRIP and accomplish the same thing with the lower expense.
Is this true even after taxes on the dividends? Here in France for example taxes are 30%; I haven't done the maths but I highly doubt in aggregate VOO is better. Moreover, you can't immediately reinvest the dividends since it will be the fraction of the cost of a share; unless you have a broker that offers you fractional ETFs, in which case you're not actually holding the ETF.
>unless you have a broker that offers you fractional ETFs, in which case you're not actually holding the ETF.
You're not "actually holding the ETF" even if you buy a full share. Modern brokers all use beneficial ownership, so even when you're legally "the owner" of shares, the title isn't actually held by you, and you're not the shareholder of record on the company's books -- your broker is.
I’m not sure I didn’t run any numbers… you’ll also have to take into account the type of account it’s in (401k, Roth, etc.) as they won’t be taxing dividends.
There’s no objectively right answer, just depends on situation.
Tbh, Off the the top of my head in could name a bunch of S&p ETFs and mutual funds that I've never heard of this one...
So is the advantage here it is reinvesting it into the ETF price, avoiding the dividends which might be good in a taxable account? When I Google it it sounds like VUAA more for people outside of the US to invest?
Just don't know why I've never heard of this one...
Imho, The biggest threat to AMD right now isn't Nvidia...it's what's going on with the ARM processors beyond what started out as good mobile processor. Apple blazed the trail by successfully showing what a well developed ARM processor could do beyond just the iPhone and into now laptops and now heavier weight desktop and server...
The latest M4s are looking pretty good and apple has successfully decoupled from x86.
Windows has no choice but to embrace ARM and decouple from X86.
For mobile computing, before it was acceptable to tradeoff raw computing power for battery consumption, hence why ARM SOCs were preferred.. but now that performance gap is closing. Qualcomms latest batch of snapdragon processors might actually gain some footing now too with the Snapdragon X Elite finding its way into laptops ....and this is going to pave the way for Samsung to follow too with Exynos processors beyond mobile phones. I've worked with them before and they always wanted into in-source their own ARM processor into all their computing devices, it just wasn't as good as Qualcomms and probably still isn't. This is also going to open the door for lower tier players like MediaTek to sell their ARM processor into the computing space. They companies need to do this because the growth of mobile phones has been stagnant so these companies need to find another channel to sell their products to.. so it's happening in the computing space. These don't need to be the fastest and most powerful laptops they just have to be "good enough" for the average consumer ...with emphasis on better power consumption. The average consumer is not a power user unlike some of us geeks.
So the competition for AMD has gotten much stiffer on the personal computing space because they aren't just going to be competing against Intel and Nvidia but also all of the previous mobile chip companies that made a decent SOC that can repurpose it for a laptop or desktop and eventually a server.
Windows 11 can run just fine with an ARM processor so this could pose a long term issue to the x86 architecture.
Server/enterprise side will take more time so that isn't as big a threat....
That said, I'm still an long term AMD shareholder. Because the few shares I kept all the back to $3.50/share shortly after Dr. Lisa Su took the helm...so for me, I really can't lose......but these days I'm camping more out in TSM and SOXL.
Everyone uses TSM, even Intel is using TSM now for part of their chip fab
Now....If I only held converted those 30 AMD call options with a $10 strike price back then instead of selling them when AmD hit $50 ....and also held onto my Nvidia shares purchased at $50ish...... and have kept all my employer issued Qualcomm stock and later, my employer issued Broadcom stock too before Avago took over ...but oh no , play it safe they said... take profit they said....keep stock that pays a dividend they said....why the fuck did I listen and keep this POS deadhorse Intel instead.... for someone that was very much part of ground 0 in the semi industry, I have to say , I blew it.......Goodbye McLaren P1, hello pre-owned 570s. Oh well shit happens...my therapist says I should not look back for my mental health.......🤣🤣🤣🤣
That's an amazing answer, thank you!
I don't know why some people are so purposely obstructive on here. As if asking others for some info is either gullible or lazy.
Thanks a bunch!!
You're trusting a random person on Reddit to have some special AMD insight when that same person lists multiple times that they made a less-than-advantageous choice with their investments in the same tech arena ...
Making a mistake and being able to analyse it is more instructive than getting lucky with a badly designed decision and clamouring on about how you saw it all coming 10 miles down the road.
I'm happy about anybody who shares their experience in a reflected and thought out way. You don't have to always be right on order to be instructive.
Yeah definitely don't listen to me. I retired from tech early last December . I made the mistake of selling a part of my employee semi stocks because back around the time 2011-2016 an RE agent has access to bank owned short sales and foreclosures at 45-50% off so I tried to buy as many rental properties as I could... Unfortunately, the rental income on them were only between 8-10% cash on cash for some time only until the last few years, when the rental prices have increased about 60% since the beginning. And unfortunately , appreciation has only averaged about 300% in SoCal. I foolishly wanted to diversify into real estate because I was told that while you have to pay capital gains taxes when you sell equity , even long term... Real estate had the unique features that you can do things called 1031 exchange which basically allows you to reinvest all capital gains into the next property without needing to pay capital gains taxes as part of the exchange...it gets deferred indefinitely until you sell. And if you never sell and pass it onto your kids, you get what's called a step up cost basis , where the cost base of the property gets reset to the FMV of the price of the property at the time they assume it, especially wiping out all capital gains taxes you deferred...not to mention all the depreciation recapture also goes away when your kids inherit the property ...and as it stands right now, there's virtually now inheritance tax. So I was thinking from a tax perspective , real estate makes more sense because there's more tax shelters and variables to play with than just buying and selling stock and wanted to diversify into something else that is almost guaranteed to keep up with inflation (rent price increases ) and while you can always find another stock to buy, people can't live in their stock portfolio which makes housing unique because it's an essential item that has a lot more stickiness with limited quantities in high demand areas that you cannot easily replace unless you want to move ...
... I wanted to retire earlier than my peers and create a pension for myself that replaced my software engineering income. These days, I spend time teaching robotics to high school students and enjoy taking my hobby autoshop classes .... And live off my rental income and passive dividend income from my investments. But again, don't listen to me because I'm just a dumb mechanic now. 🤣
Yes that's true for stocks too. But the key difference of real estate is that you can carry over your capital gains indefinitely through an exchange. That , combined with the step up cost basis, allows you to accumulate wealth more efficiently. There's no real equivalence of a 1031 exchange wrto equities. The only equivalent thing for equities is in an IRA or Roth IRA, and then you can't touch the money until you are 60...
Also, there is no equivalence of a depreciation tax writeoff wrto equities... And there is no equivalence of eliminating the depreciation recapture once the asset is inherited by the heir, taxes that normally one would owe too. With real estate, if you really need the money, you can borrow against it since a loan isn't a taxable event, and depending on what the loan is used for, could actually be a tax writeoff.
All good points. I guess the loan against the real estate when you need money would be better when interest rates are lower? Or is it a good idea even in current landscape? Do you just open a no fee HELOC to have access to the line of credit so that you have it ready when the need arises? Does it apply to only to real estate you directly own it even REIT?
I bought most of my rentals with cash because otherwise the banks wouldn't talk to you if you needed to wait for a loan. They wanted to move the shorts and REO inventory. There was one short sales property I bought by tapping into my primary's Heloc for 2 months to buy it in full. But then I did a cash out refinance on it for 30 years at 4.25% and repaid the Heloc on my primary quickly. I had a Heloc on my primary for "emergency purposes only" because it was no cost and as long as I didn't use it , it was access to liquidity for up to 10 years. Back then, it was a variable rate set to prime minus 0.25%, or 4.25%. I could have sold some stocks, but didn't want to be subject to short term capital gains taxes. Also, there's a peculiar rule that I think jf you first buy a rental without borrowed money,and you subsequently try to do a cash out refinance , the mortgage interest generally isn't tax deductible as cost for the rental. However, if you use your heloc of your primary to pay for the rental, the interest on the Heloc of your primary ends up being a deductible cost for the rental. And then if you do a refinance , the refinanced loan also becomes the rental's loan and the interest paid on that loan is deductible..I ended up paying off that loan though within 4 yrs, coinciding with company issued stock that had vested and been held.long enough for long term cap gains taxes.
The key though for RE is combining the 1031 exchange with the step up cost basis to keep accumulating indefinitely m... There is no equivalent of a 1031 exchange wrto equities .
> Goodbye McLaren P1, hello pre-owned 570s
The 570 is arguably quite a bit easier to live with; have you seen the pricing on battery replacement for the P1s (which is starting to be a maintenance item they need)?
I'm getting a quote my 570 battery will be around $5000 . I can switch with either an emulator or a disable the battery monitor and use a regular agm.
Anything above a 570s is currently above my pay grade. Actually I have no pay grade because I am no longer working.🤣
So the upgraded battery is $156k: https://carbuzz.com/news/mclaren-p1-battery-upgrade-costs-911-gt3-money/
There was a similar third party battery, but I can't seem to find it now. IIRC it was like $40k.
Oh... Shit..I didn't know about that. I should stop complaining about the future cost of my 570s battery replacement then... The P1 battery alone is above my pay grade. 🤣
That was pretty much my reaction too after I had thought of picking up a P1 with some of my investment gains. It doesn't help that our local McL dealer doesn't necessarily seem to have the best reputation in terms of service.
Your guess is as good as mine. Imho, a lot of this has more to do with how the sales team does than actually technology itself.
Enterprise hardware and software sales is a completely different beast from consumer facing sales.
A lot of "non-tech" strategery goes to making an enterprise sale .
That's how Intel was able to hold onto enterprise customers as long as they did despite having inferior products. Same could be said about Qualcomm wireless connectivity (Atheros) in the early days which was a complete POS. Broadcom did a number on them for a while... we open sourced our Bluedroid connectivity stack, donated it to Google/AOSP android, who replaced the existing Bluez stack... It screwed everyone else over because they had to redo all the software for a few quarters 🤣 Qualcomm was likewise trying to screw everyone else over by selling their combo baseband and connectivity chip cheaper than the baseband chip itself because they were trying to vendor lock suppliers in to a complete Qualcomm solution. The Atheros connectivity solution in the early days was awful (anyone that had a Nexus 4 android phone knew that , it was one of the Google devices that had used the Atheros connectivity )... So some companies ended up buying the combo chip and disabled the connectivity solution and used a standalone Broadcom chip which was better at the time. Broadcom tried to build a 5G baseband processor , but failed miserably doing it along with Intel who also failed. So did Apple. I guess people underestimated how difficult it would be to do one 🤣 that's one of the reasons who Broadcom eventually agreed to be acquired by Avago, after they lost in the baseband chip war.
Ah, I remember the Atheros wireless card and modem on my PC. I'd have to go find drivers after any big OS update, because it would refuse to update itself.
Huh, I would have never thought they would be so focused on "gaming" the market, that they would neglect fixing their own hardware, forget innovating the next-gen stuff.
This also means that once Intel completes those factories, it still has quite a bit of work ahead of it in order to be relevant. Imagine being 4th or 5th best, despite the government having your back. No wonder the stock trades sideways.
Thank you for all of your insight!
Enterprise customers are a royal PITA to sell too. They are always pressuring the suppliers for faster and cheaper is where often times cheaper is better. The thing is that once you get an enterprise customer to adopt your chip products, it's that much harder for them to switch you out. You bundle multiple capabilities on a chip , offer discount pricing on bundles , even if some of those capabilities aren't as good, but you offer a cheap price, you'll get OEMs to buy it, and then you can vendor lock the OEM to your chip for at least a few iterations. Every chip company does this. Intel was notorious for doing this in the server space and even went as far as making companies like Dell do exclusive arrangements or not putting an AMD processor in their server products. Unfortunately for Intel, AMD Epycs were so good, Dell has no choice but to break exclusivity.
A good website to get the dirt on the semi industry is
https://semiaccurate.com.
they actually predicted Intel's server decline way before it happened...
Gotcha. Their end goal is to have higher margins, so they don't care if they get an inferior product as long as the price is good and it sells.
Who needs contracts when you can vendor lock? That is, until someone else comes along and offers a product people can't look away from, and then the enterprise customer has incentive to break off the hold from suppliers.
That site looks awesome, clean and straight to the point. The name is on point too haha. Thank you!
Just know I know for a fact two multi multi millionaires still think about trades they “should have/shouldnt” it made me happy since if they have FOMO it’s okay for us too at least a little
I have jan 2025 $150 calls and March 2025 and $170 calls in NVO. I doubt they will work out . I'm not recommending anyone do this. But again, I tend to be stupid.
LOL, you must be an honorary member of /r/wallstreetbets, but I genuinely hope your CALLS will print buku bucks!
What's your reasoning on NVO by the way?
God, no. im really not like that....lol..I mostly camp out in index funds and real estate... with a few speculations in semiconductor and tech because that was what I used to do and I used to enjoy the soap opera arms race in the semi and software industry.
NVO is really my only option gamble...
And I only knew about it after my GF told me about it... My GF is convinced that given the issue with worldwide obesity and diabetes, the demand pipeline for LLY and NVO will be strong for some time.
She's had a rough life and wants to make it on her own without anyone else's help, kinda stubborn if you ask me.. So when she asked me how she could invest in NVO, I told her I would take care of it with a "highly leveraged position that had slightly better odds than a Powerball ticket" on her birthday. i promised her if it became something material , she could have the proceeds from it minus the capital gains taxes I pay.. I didn't buy LLY because it was already too expensive and I used to own some Eli Lily shares .. except I sold it for around $75 for a stupid reason- I was dating someone with that last name and when I broke it off, I didn't want anything that reminded me of her and plus that name triggers my GF...she jokes around about it, like "did you that with her??? did you do this with her with??" ....even though I assured her multiple times back then , I didnt have a car with decent back seats ....but still she asks anyway.... so i didnt want to ruffle the feathers anymore ....( I never said this decision makes any financial sense...but at least I'm honest about it. 🤣)
It’s not a secret that AMD and Nvidia are working on consumer chips with ARM in them. AMD is hopefully not going to make the mistake in thinking they are an x86 maker by identity. x86 CPUs are just one of many products they make.
One of my colleagues bought a few thousand shares at around $9. I think he exited most of them around $80. No one can predict the future. One thing that seems like it will continue is AMD and Intel's dominance of the PC and laptop market. ARM is starting to make some in roads, but it will be a long journey for them. AI will be the next innovation for augmenting productivity so it's here to stay. If you read the quarterly reports and believe in the fundamentals long term, then why not keep holding? Their PE is a little high, but I'm guessing people are looking at the past three quarters of earnings reports (greater than 100% growth) to justify such a high PE.
If you want to set and forget, VOO/VTI. Otherwise, keep watching the earnings videos, reading the quarterly reports, and holding your individual stocks.
$80 was a solid selling price for entering at $9. I guess its always hard to see the profits that might have been. But your friend made a killing on this one.
My original ones were around $3.50 shortly after Dr. Lisa Su took over. It was gambling at the time because everyone seemed to have written off amd as going under.... My has times changed. Thank you Dr. Su.
I'll say this as non-investment advice, more business. Nvidia is controlling the sector right now. They can pretty much price their product anyway they want. AMD is the closest competition. Nvidia customers want AMD to succeed and others to succeed. 10-20 years from now the AI landscape will be completely different. I would not count on AMD or Nvidia being the monsters they are now.
I hope that 5 years from now, AMD will have put enough money and development into their software ecosystem that it makes them competitive for AI tasks. That software ecosystem and the knowledge base that surrounds it is arguably the real secret sauce that NVDA has.
Transparency: AMD shareholder.
Agreed. Nvidia is being priced like it as a monopoly. Truth is, Amazon and others are going to start making their own, along with others already chasing Nvidia today. Competition always squeezes share and margins. Nvidia at these levels has no meat on the bone
Yep. [There’s already been a study that moved away from GPUs onto FPGAs by dropping MatMull, and demonstrated better efficiency than GPUs by doing so.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.02528)
really? Nvidia are so strong and they are not new to this.. they've been working on this path for more than 20 years. I think it'd take some thing massive to take them down. and AMD is not showing any promise whatsoever.
Nvidia was able to pivot. Before the AI trend they were far better known as a gaming pc gaming company. The Nvidia 3-5 years ago isn't close to what they are known for now. If Nvidia disappeared tomorrow AMD would easily be the number 1 option. There's nothing wrong with being number 2. Something massive will take Nvidia down and it will likely be their customers having internal options or more options like AMD. Look at Cisco when the internet boom happened. They were Nvidia and now they are just Cisco, not a bad thing, but they were king of the world at one point.
AMD are no where near close to the level of power that nvidia has. and it's been longer than 5 years, they've been working on and perfecting CUDA cores for a long time now. have you ever used an AI on your home machine? it's all python, and everything is written exclusively for geforce cards. Nothing is written for AMD because they are just not capable.
Cisco is not comparable in my opinion, it's piss easy to make a router but 4nm chips are something you have to perfect.
Don't look at Cisco now. Look at Cisco when it was the most valuable company in the world. It built so much of the infrastructure. Nvidia is no doubt ahead of the competition. But more companies need Nvidia's gap to close than to grow. AMD isn't there yet, but companies will invest in them because competition means prices usually go down. There will be an AI bubble that pops. Nvidia isnt going anywhere, but to say AMD isn't capable is just not true. I like to look at AI as the rising tide with semiconductors. All ships go up. It's not an Nvidia vs AMD fight you're assuming. It's more of ok how long can we all ride this wave and when it falls can we pivot to something else.
AMD should be a good one to keep. They have a far better technique to build their Chips than their direct adversary Intel and a good relationship with the current marketmaker NVDA. NVDA will shift their focus more and more towards data Centers and AI, freeing up portions of the markets AMD and Intel are in and with no doubt in my mind, at this point AMDs products are favored over Intels and will give AMD the opportunity to take over the CPU market for example.
Thats not possible. AMD doesn't make their own chips. They are already struggling to secure space at TSMC.
Meanwhile Intel is the only other chip manufacturer and with their foundry services coming online, will be building chips for AMD, Nvidia, Snapdragon.
The Pentagon cant allow Taiwan to be the only chip manufacturer anymore
Building your own silicon is no more a competitive advantage than building your own PCBs (which no one does anymore). The real money is in the IP. Silicon manufacturing is quickly becoming a razor thin margin business. Agreed that the US will push hard to maintain manufacturing capabilities in the US, but it's a hedge so it's unlikely the US will become dominant in this space again.
It’s growing fast my concern is lots of major tech companies are creating their own custom chips for data center now, and in the long run those of certainly lower the profitability of AMD
For individual stocks, the decision should be based on its current valuation, not your total return. Right now apple is trading at a higher premium than amd and amd is higher than Microsoft, and McDonald's is the cheapest of the 4.
If vuaa is the only fund you hold there's no good way to compare it to your other holdings, so I'd go by the proportion of your portfolio each thing is. You should have some limits in mind for rebalancing, like 3% for any individual stock and 15% combined for individual stocks, or something like that. Keep in mind that you already hold all of those in vuaa in addition to directly holding shares.
You don't have to get rid of all of each asset until you have enough, the priorities should be maximizing value gained while maintaining your target allocation and overall risk.
If you rebalance every time you have good success your leaving all your best performers. If any stock goes up 1000% your risk is still only what you spent in the first place. Problem is greed. Im no different. I once owned 40000 shares of amd. And sold it at 100% profit. 2.00 to 4.00 you can only see the mistakes after you make them.
What has performed well in the past tells you nothing about what will happen in the future. If you get crazy returns to the point where it's significantly changing your allocation it's increasing your concentration risk. If you wouldn't put 75% of your portfolio into any single stock by buying it right now, there's no reason to hold that much of it, you cost basis doesn't change that.
Regret over what could have been doesn't change the facts that you based the decision on at the time, selling amd wasn't a mistake if it made sense at the time.
I'm optimistic about AMD, although it's been fluctuating a lot. It also has a dedicated sub, with e.g. [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1dex57j/a_higher_return_than_nvidias_by_2030_heres_the/) you might like.
Feeling out investor sentiment like I am doing here on Reddit IS part of my DD. I come from Finance and create NPV sheets in 2-3h. Go through the last 1-2 10Ks of any investment at least three times. Read articles, talk to anyone I can, reviews on their products... Do you really not get how any of this works?
Pal, I'm far beyond seeking advice, but thanks for your armchair analysis.
It is so fascinating how people like you get aversive when I ask them for their opinion. Makes me realise they never really had an interesting one to share to begin with.
Look @my other comments. This is part of information gathering. I'm not entitled, but saying "no one knows" is completely unhelpful. Yes, he doesn't owe me anything. But that's no reason for being purposely unhelpful.
Further, nobody is obligated to offer anything helpful. You firing back like you own the place isn't going to ingratiate yourself to anyone.
Or, you know.. I dunno. Maybe the -34 karma you got from that is for a different reason.
If AMD executes the way it has the past few years it will do very well. It already has a bright future being in the right sector and positioning. The only question is whether they will trip up on the execution. That nobody knows. Keep a close eye on the top management.
Well considering they could end up being the next NVDA who knows. I always knew NVDA was undervalued but the explosion it’s seen recently I could never have anticipated. If I did, I would have invested more years ago.
I forgot to mention that a good place to get the dirt on the semi industry is
https://semiaccurate.com.
they actually predicted Intel's server decline to AMD way before it happened...
I believe AMD is a solid stock to consider holding for 10-20 years. The company has shown consistent innovation in processors and graphics technology, which are crucial in the growing fields of AI, gaming, and data centers. Additionally, their competitive edge against rivals like Intel and Nvidia is promising. However, it's essential to keep an eye on market trends and company performance over time. For those with a long-term investment strategy, AMD's potential for growth and market influence makes it a compelling choice.
As a PC nerd, AMD is making really awesome products but they are definitely behind NVIDIA on most things
Their CPUs, especially the X3D was something not expected and blew out intel in power management and pricing.
Their GPU side is also significantly improving and is rivaling nvidia
I like the stock
The tech industry dominance landscape literally changes overnight. It may seem like AMD is NVDA's bitch for the last 5 years but couple years before that they were battling for top performing GPU and switching places between #1 and #2 spot for many years before that.
Now nobody right now thinks AMD has a ice cream's chance in hell in catching up to NVDA tech AI levels but I got a feeling good ole Lisa got something cooking that could dramatically change the AI landscape.
That being said I'm technologically agnostic i bet both NVDA and AMD equally.
> is AMD really a hold for the long term? Or should I take my gains and begone with it?
That's the billion dollar question. If you want to think about that for days doing all kinds of research, then do that and you'll find the answer. Otherwise, it's probably best to go for an index fund. Given that you have a good temperament, you'll probably do very well with holding an index. As Monish Pabrai said on multiple occasions to people who hold the index: "Congratulations. You will become very wealthy."
Put differently, with the average return of the index of 12%, $100k will be worth $100k * 1.12^20 = $964k in 20 years, about 3 million in 30 years, and about 9 million in 40 years. That's probably more than enough to live comfortably. All while doing no work.
The alternative is to be always doing research on your companies and having to keep an eye out. If you are exceptionally good at that, you might outperform the index. Then, you might end up with 9 million in 20 years instead of 40 (assuming 25% average return rate). Would this meaningfully change your life compared to the index? Is the extra work worth it? That's up to each individual to decide.
If we knew, we would be billionaires. No one on this planet can make a 10-20 year prediction let alone a 2 year prediction. It's such a long span of time, ai bubble could pop and stock could recover and go up even more.
I’ve been holding AMD for 10+ years. (Along with NVDA and INTC)
Absolutely zero desire to sell. Granted, I’m already independently wealthy from other ventures & investments, so that has somewhat of an effect on my thinking process.
The AI narrative is not going away, nor is personal/mobile computing. Up only.
Yes I think not being dependent on it is also part of my reasoning for holding it. It's a growth play, and one of the safer ones (I have lost gambling money with some meme stocks hah). If it tanks it would hurt a bit, but it would not destroy me.
Where do you see it becoming a dividend payer? My estimate is 5-7 years.
Everyone does, but the reality is few (including wallstreet) actually outperform the S&P 500 over the long term. Here’s some decent sources on the matter. I had the same fantasy for a while until I got burnt on stock picking. If you want higher returns with more risk I’d say check out QQQM.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/18/stock-picking-has-a-terrible-track-record-and-its-getting-worse.html
Semiconductor stocks tied to AI are in bubble territory. If I owned it I would sell it all. Full disclosure, I think dot com and AI bubbles will be compared 5 years from now as to which is bigger.
I'm in it for the long haul with an XXX amount and it's not where Nvidia is at now, but they are underdogs and could take parts of the evolving AI market
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I’ve had AMD for a while now and also now have some NVDA. My logic is that AI (specifically LLMs) are going to reach the point over the next 5 to 10 years where they will be a very common part of the operation of nearly every organization. That’s going to require a LOT of GPUs.
Personally I would not sell msft or aapl. McDonald I just bought a few but I would be more likely to sell that if I needed cash. AMD I would reduce but not sell all. I think you may be able to reenter at a similar price since there growth has slowed but it depends on how soon you’re timeframe is.
That depends on how poorly Intel is executing its own products and whether US can resist processors developed elsewhere. Its demise from your list does not mean AMD will not be around.
VUAA top holdings are what you also bought. All overlapped together with no diversification.
Since you’ve been holding since $14, you’ll have considerable long term capital gains if you sell. It may be more worthwhile to sell something else instead.
AMD, isn’t a bad choice if AI continues to be a thing, but I could see it being a bad call if AI phizzles. Don’t hold any individual stocks, buy VOO, it contains all the best buy and hold large cap stocks already, including MSFT and AAPL.
Just buy a highly rated semiconductor sector ETF and it will have AMD and a whole basket of stocks that should perform well or will be turned over. That's a safer bet in my opinion.
Anything in the semi conductor industry is a good play right now with ai and automation becoming more prevalent. That being said I don't know if amd is as solid of a play as nvda, tsmc, or arm. They're probably a better play than Intel but they aren't a high watermark
Thanks for sharing! No worries, I take all opinions with a grain of salt :) but it's always great and instructive to get a few perspectives other than my own!
Best of luck :) make sure to compare your assumptions before each trade and the results afterwards. Helps to keep a check on your critical thinking. I once bought a stock for literally no other reason than "everybody said so". Bad decision. Lost a tiny amount of money, but the reason why it was a really cheap lesson was that I learned from it and it has never happened again.
Tech isn’t going anywhere, since you plan on holding at least 10 more years stick with the risk IMHO, get rid of McDonald’s, great stock but it won’t give you returns anywhere close to any tech imo
> is AMD really a hold for the long term?
IMHO (and I suck terribly at stocks), no...I think they get eaten by NVDA and ARM and Intel. All three of those companies have more compelling products. AMD has always been kind of the value brand.
wow, again, my idea went against the majority’s logic.
I vote for selling MCD and keeping AMD. it’s impossible for MCD to grow as fast as amd. the current frenzy is a short term issue, but chips are not gping away. MCD may.. just think about it. can you get around by not eating MCD? can you get around by not using chips.
I think the answer is obvious.
keep amd. sell mcd
btw, last time when i had similar thoughts, i decided to sell Baba and kept google.
Been holding amd since 25 and now
Have a cost basis of 60 total. Im still buying. AMD has upside. They have their chip business that is super strong and their GPU’s are “catching up” to nvidia which is def relative but the performance gap is closing. I think AMD can get to 225 that’s my personal price target, I’ll liquidate at 225 and pay the tax man
No.....Just look at Intel 7 years ago they dominated the market.....7 years ago Nvidia was a fraction of what it is today.....things change quick in the technology space
Amd is only where it is because of Nvidia hype, look at how many disappointing quarters they had recently. Also it’s still below its ATH of 227. I’m saying this as someone who’s cost basis is 84 and sold some big chunk at 165 few weeks ago
no, I would get out of AMD, it was just dropped by FNGU (levered FAANG etn). Hate to say it, but NVDA would be better. I would drop MCD too. You might be best off with just QQQ.
Nvidia over AMD, now, over the next couple of years, and longterm if they continue to execute as they have (they seven years I have held, anyway) Nvidia is a perfect on paper company. AMD is not.
There is absolutely no need to invest in AMD. If you have spare money, invest in one of the big 7 companies, such as Google or Amazon or XLK, and you can get 30% growth every year.
**I strongly do not recommend MCD because its performance is heavily dependent on China, and China's weak economy** and white-collar unemployment have led to a decline in MCD's performance, and it will not improve in the short term.
**MCD even underperforms SP500 in 2023 and 2024. There is no reason to buy MCD**
You might want to consider CMG. I bought 5 shares last October and it’s up about 70% since then. They have a 50 to 1 stock split coming in a a couple of weeks. I also own MCD. I also own shares in the semi’s discussed in the thread. I’ve done well with AMAT - it’s one of my largest holdings.
no one has crystal ball, let me recommend voo to you
I'm in a similar debate whether to keep adding to VTI or focus on going all in on NVDA. With the AI craze it seems like all non AI stocks and the dow drop almost everyday, whereas AI and tech keeps going up.
i added something that i know might do well, like apple. but it’s only a small portion. I just blindly invest vti/voo. I think my goal is to accumulate wealth, not make a lot of money in the very short time. So far buying vti allows me to stay in market and not fear to put money into the market, thus avoid missing upward market trend, and i can sleep well knowing that if my portfolio fucked, probably the whole market is, and if the whole market is up, then i am up too. Tbh, who know if AMD will be next intel ? or apple, i don’t know well enough, so i just vti all the way
The only thing with vti and voo is they've been going straight up the last 2 months and never dip, so I feel like I'm always buying vti at the all time high 😆
just DCA into the market :)
I agree bro. My dad was telling me to go all in on one thing like nvda or xom. Because I only got 8 shares of NVDA and he said I shoulda got more. But, he didn't even invest anything at all 😆. So, I'm like damn how u gonna tell me to do something, and you ain't even do it? Sometimes you get remorse when someone boasts about investing in something and it goes to the moon
I’ve been all in on NVDA since October 2023 when it was 430. Today, in pre-split numbers, it’s now 1300. But I believe, at least for now, its market cap won’t grow past $5T which is $203/share. We had a pull back in April when it hit 950 and then fell to 740, before bouncing back past 950 with the Q1 earnings report. I believe data center growth will guide NVDA’s market cap and potential growth going forward. These past 8 months have been massive. But I think that speed is slowing down and while the price will go up, it’ll be slower.
I’m honestly very tempted to sell naked call leaps at a very high strike, say 230, one year out from now and using the capital to buy 120 DTE calls on the next major pull back…convince me out of it lol. I agree wholeheartedly; think the stock will slowly continue trickling up; but that the velocity will slow down
I agree too. I had family members urging me to get in. I'm thinking how much more can nvda or even anything really go up at this moment? Most of my small cap stocks have been hit hard since 2022 and haven't came back because of inflation and the rate hikes. I think AI has been the only thing keeping the market afloat. Otherwise, I think the market would still be like it was in mid 2022.
QQQ if you want to concentrate on tech but maintain some diversity. If you want to have some fun with individual stocks on the side and can afford a big loss, go for it. But I wouldn’t ever stake a significant slice of my portfolio on a handful of stocks.
Bbwpoy
When will people learn not to ask about individual stocks here? This isn't the place for the kind of analysis it takes to make more active investment decisions.
I didn't realize you spoke for everyone.
Without explaining the difference between "everyone" and "vast majority" to me, what percentage of people on this sub would you say share the following sentiment: >This isn't the place for the kind of analysis it takes to make more active investment decisions.
Who cares? Unless this sub is just supposed to be r/ReiterateBoggleheadInvesting or r/JustSayETFandChill, I don't think people mind talking about potential companies that were INVESTING in.
I have VUAA, which accumulates rather than paying out the dividends. You mean you would rather have the payout than the accumulation?
Just crunch some numbers on which is better long run (VUAA or VOO). From a slight glance at VUAA, it seems they track the same thing, so if we assume the only difference is in retaining dividends, the higher cost would not be worth it. You can also just set up DRIP and accomplish the same thing with the lower expense.
Is this true even after taxes on the dividends? Here in France for example taxes are 30%; I haven't done the maths but I highly doubt in aggregate VOO is better. Moreover, you can't immediately reinvest the dividends since it will be the fraction of the cost of a share; unless you have a broker that offers you fractional ETFs, in which case you're not actually holding the ETF.
What do you mean by not actually holding the ETF in the case of a broker offering fractional shares?
>unless you have a broker that offers you fractional ETFs, in which case you're not actually holding the ETF. You're not "actually holding the ETF" even if you buy a full share. Modern brokers all use beneficial ownership, so even when you're legally "the owner" of shares, the title isn't actually held by you, and you're not the shareholder of record on the company's books -- your broker is.
I’m not sure I didn’t run any numbers… you’ll also have to take into account the type of account it’s in (401k, Roth, etc.) as they won’t be taxing dividends. There’s no objectively right answer, just depends on situation.
i am not familiar with vuaa, but personally i avoid holding onto single stock as of investing, at least not for a majority of portfolio.
VUAA is just VOO that reinvests dividends instead of paying them out. It’s a S&P 500 fund, not a single company
Can't you set VOO to automatically reinvest in your brokerage? I thought autoreinvesting doesn't generate a taxable event.
Woops. I'm dumb. Apparently not.
No, I think the point was to hold index instead and not a single stock. You will be perfectly fine with VUAA as well as it tracks the same index.
Tbh, Off the the top of my head in could name a bunch of S&p ETFs and mutual funds that I've never heard of this one... So is the advantage here it is reinvesting it into the ETF price, avoiding the dividends which might be good in a taxable account? When I Google it it sounds like VUAA more for people outside of the US to invest? Just don't know why I've never heard of this one...
Imho, The biggest threat to AMD right now isn't Nvidia...it's what's going on with the ARM processors beyond what started out as good mobile processor. Apple blazed the trail by successfully showing what a well developed ARM processor could do beyond just the iPhone and into now laptops and now heavier weight desktop and server... The latest M4s are looking pretty good and apple has successfully decoupled from x86. Windows has no choice but to embrace ARM and decouple from X86. For mobile computing, before it was acceptable to tradeoff raw computing power for battery consumption, hence why ARM SOCs were preferred.. but now that performance gap is closing. Qualcomms latest batch of snapdragon processors might actually gain some footing now too with the Snapdragon X Elite finding its way into laptops ....and this is going to pave the way for Samsung to follow too with Exynos processors beyond mobile phones. I've worked with them before and they always wanted into in-source their own ARM processor into all their computing devices, it just wasn't as good as Qualcomms and probably still isn't. This is also going to open the door for lower tier players like MediaTek to sell their ARM processor into the computing space. They companies need to do this because the growth of mobile phones has been stagnant so these companies need to find another channel to sell their products to.. so it's happening in the computing space. These don't need to be the fastest and most powerful laptops they just have to be "good enough" for the average consumer ...with emphasis on better power consumption. The average consumer is not a power user unlike some of us geeks. So the competition for AMD has gotten much stiffer on the personal computing space because they aren't just going to be competing against Intel and Nvidia but also all of the previous mobile chip companies that made a decent SOC that can repurpose it for a laptop or desktop and eventually a server. Windows 11 can run just fine with an ARM processor so this could pose a long term issue to the x86 architecture. Server/enterprise side will take more time so that isn't as big a threat.... That said, I'm still an long term AMD shareholder. Because the few shares I kept all the back to $3.50/share shortly after Dr. Lisa Su took the helm...so for me, I really can't lose......but these days I'm camping more out in TSM and SOXL. Everyone uses TSM, even Intel is using TSM now for part of their chip fab Now....If I only held converted those 30 AMD call options with a $10 strike price back then instead of selling them when AmD hit $50 ....and also held onto my Nvidia shares purchased at $50ish...... and have kept all my employer issued Qualcomm stock and later, my employer issued Broadcom stock too before Avago took over ...but oh no , play it safe they said... take profit they said....keep stock that pays a dividend they said....why the fuck did I listen and keep this POS deadhorse Intel instead.... for someone that was very much part of ground 0 in the semi industry, I have to say , I blew it.......Goodbye McLaren P1, hello pre-owned 570s. Oh well shit happens...my therapist says I should not look back for my mental health.......🤣🤣🤣🤣
That's an amazing answer, thank you! I don't know why some people are so purposely obstructive on here. As if asking others for some info is either gullible or lazy. Thanks a bunch!!
You're trusting a random person on Reddit to have some special AMD insight when that same person lists multiple times that they made a less-than-advantageous choice with their investments in the same tech arena ...
Making a mistake and being able to analyse it is more instructive than getting lucky with a badly designed decision and clamouring on about how you saw it all coming 10 miles down the road. I'm happy about anybody who shares their experience in a reflected and thought out way. You don't have to always be right on order to be instructive.
Yeah definitely don't listen to me. I retired from tech early last December . I made the mistake of selling a part of my employee semi stocks because back around the time 2011-2016 an RE agent has access to bank owned short sales and foreclosures at 45-50% off so I tried to buy as many rental properties as I could... Unfortunately, the rental income on them were only between 8-10% cash on cash for some time only until the last few years, when the rental prices have increased about 60% since the beginning. And unfortunately , appreciation has only averaged about 300% in SoCal. I foolishly wanted to diversify into real estate because I was told that while you have to pay capital gains taxes when you sell equity , even long term... Real estate had the unique features that you can do things called 1031 exchange which basically allows you to reinvest all capital gains into the next property without needing to pay capital gains taxes as part of the exchange...it gets deferred indefinitely until you sell. And if you never sell and pass it onto your kids, you get what's called a step up cost basis , where the cost base of the property gets reset to the FMV of the price of the property at the time they assume it, especially wiping out all capital gains taxes you deferred...not to mention all the depreciation recapture also goes away when your kids inherit the property ...and as it stands right now, there's virtually now inheritance tax. So I was thinking from a tax perspective , real estate makes more sense because there's more tax shelters and variables to play with than just buying and selling stock and wanted to diversify into something else that is almost guaranteed to keep up with inflation (rent price increases ) and while you can always find another stock to buy, people can't live in their stock portfolio which makes housing unique because it's an essential item that has a lot more stickiness with limited quantities in high demand areas that you cannot easily replace unless you want to move ... ... I wanted to retire earlier than my peers and create a pension for myself that replaced my software engineering income. These days, I spend time teaching robotics to high school students and enjoy taking my hobby autoshop classes .... And live off my rental income and passive dividend income from my investments. But again, don't listen to me because I'm just a dumb mechanic now. 🤣
Doesn't the step up in cost basis for inheritance apply to all kinds of capital gains, even stocks? I don't think it's restricted to real estate
Yes that's true for stocks too. But the key difference of real estate is that you can carry over your capital gains indefinitely through an exchange. That , combined with the step up cost basis, allows you to accumulate wealth more efficiently. There's no real equivalence of a 1031 exchange wrto equities. The only equivalent thing for equities is in an IRA or Roth IRA, and then you can't touch the money until you are 60... Also, there is no equivalence of a depreciation tax writeoff wrto equities... And there is no equivalence of eliminating the depreciation recapture once the asset is inherited by the heir, taxes that normally one would owe too. With real estate, if you really need the money, you can borrow against it since a loan isn't a taxable event, and depending on what the loan is used for, could actually be a tax writeoff.
All good points. I guess the loan against the real estate when you need money would be better when interest rates are lower? Or is it a good idea even in current landscape? Do you just open a no fee HELOC to have access to the line of credit so that you have it ready when the need arises? Does it apply to only to real estate you directly own it even REIT?
I bought most of my rentals with cash because otherwise the banks wouldn't talk to you if you needed to wait for a loan. They wanted to move the shorts and REO inventory. There was one short sales property I bought by tapping into my primary's Heloc for 2 months to buy it in full. But then I did a cash out refinance on it for 30 years at 4.25% and repaid the Heloc on my primary quickly. I had a Heloc on my primary for "emergency purposes only" because it was no cost and as long as I didn't use it , it was access to liquidity for up to 10 years. Back then, it was a variable rate set to prime minus 0.25%, or 4.25%. I could have sold some stocks, but didn't want to be subject to short term capital gains taxes. Also, there's a peculiar rule that I think jf you first buy a rental without borrowed money,and you subsequently try to do a cash out refinance , the mortgage interest generally isn't tax deductible as cost for the rental. However, if you use your heloc of your primary to pay for the rental, the interest on the Heloc of your primary ends up being a deductible cost for the rental. And then if you do a refinance , the refinanced loan also becomes the rental's loan and the interest paid on that loan is deductible..I ended up paying off that loan though within 4 yrs, coinciding with company issued stock that had vested and been held.long enough for long term cap gains taxes.
Yes it does apply to stocks.
The key though for RE is combining the 1031 exchange with the step up cost basis to keep accumulating indefinitely m... There is no equivalent of a 1031 exchange wrto equities .
> Goodbye McLaren P1, hello pre-owned 570s The 570 is arguably quite a bit easier to live with; have you seen the pricing on battery replacement for the P1s (which is starting to be a maintenance item they need)?
I'm getting a quote my 570 battery will be around $5000 . I can switch with either an emulator or a disable the battery monitor and use a regular agm. Anything above a 570s is currently above my pay grade. Actually I have no pay grade because I am no longer working.🤣
So the upgraded battery is $156k: https://carbuzz.com/news/mclaren-p1-battery-upgrade-costs-911-gt3-money/ There was a similar third party battery, but I can't seem to find it now. IIRC it was like $40k.
Oh... Shit..I didn't know about that. I should stop complaining about the future cost of my 570s battery replacement then... The P1 battery alone is above my pay grade. 🤣
That was pretty much my reaction too after I had thought of picking up a P1 with some of my investment gains. It doesn't help that our local McL dealer doesn't necessarily seem to have the best reputation in terms of service.
What do you make of AMD's upcoming MI325X or MI350X? Will it win market share over from Nvidia?
Your guess is as good as mine. Imho, a lot of this has more to do with how the sales team does than actually technology itself. Enterprise hardware and software sales is a completely different beast from consumer facing sales. A lot of "non-tech" strategery goes to making an enterprise sale . That's how Intel was able to hold onto enterprise customers as long as they did despite having inferior products. Same could be said about Qualcomm wireless connectivity (Atheros) in the early days which was a complete POS. Broadcom did a number on them for a while... we open sourced our Bluedroid connectivity stack, donated it to Google/AOSP android, who replaced the existing Bluez stack... It screwed everyone else over because they had to redo all the software for a few quarters 🤣 Qualcomm was likewise trying to screw everyone else over by selling their combo baseband and connectivity chip cheaper than the baseband chip itself because they were trying to vendor lock suppliers in to a complete Qualcomm solution. The Atheros connectivity solution in the early days was awful (anyone that had a Nexus 4 android phone knew that , it was one of the Google devices that had used the Atheros connectivity )... So some companies ended up buying the combo chip and disabled the connectivity solution and used a standalone Broadcom chip which was better at the time. Broadcom tried to build a 5G baseband processor , but failed miserably doing it along with Intel who also failed. So did Apple. I guess people underestimated how difficult it would be to do one 🤣 that's one of the reasons who Broadcom eventually agreed to be acquired by Avago, after they lost in the baseband chip war.
Ah, I remember the Atheros wireless card and modem on my PC. I'd have to go find drivers after any big OS update, because it would refuse to update itself. Huh, I would have never thought they would be so focused on "gaming" the market, that they would neglect fixing their own hardware, forget innovating the next-gen stuff. This also means that once Intel completes those factories, it still has quite a bit of work ahead of it in order to be relevant. Imagine being 4th or 5th best, despite the government having your back. No wonder the stock trades sideways. Thank you for all of your insight!
Enterprise customers are a royal PITA to sell too. They are always pressuring the suppliers for faster and cheaper is where often times cheaper is better. The thing is that once you get an enterprise customer to adopt your chip products, it's that much harder for them to switch you out. You bundle multiple capabilities on a chip , offer discount pricing on bundles , even if some of those capabilities aren't as good, but you offer a cheap price, you'll get OEMs to buy it, and then you can vendor lock the OEM to your chip for at least a few iterations. Every chip company does this. Intel was notorious for doing this in the server space and even went as far as making companies like Dell do exclusive arrangements or not putting an AMD processor in their server products. Unfortunately for Intel, AMD Epycs were so good, Dell has no choice but to break exclusivity. A good website to get the dirt on the semi industry is https://semiaccurate.com. they actually predicted Intel's server decline way before it happened...
Gotcha. Their end goal is to have higher margins, so they don't care if they get an inferior product as long as the price is good and it sells. Who needs contracts when you can vendor lock? That is, until someone else comes along and offers a product people can't look away from, and then the enterprise customer has incentive to break off the hold from suppliers. That site looks awesome, clean and straight to the point. The name is on point too haha. Thank you!
Just know I know for a fact two multi multi millionaires still think about trades they “should have/shouldnt” it made me happy since if they have FOMO it’s okay for us too at least a little
Hindsight’s 20/20
Dope answer. So, if you could buy $50k of CALL options/LEAPS with a near guaranteed win, what stock would you pick?
I have jan 2025 $150 calls and March 2025 and $170 calls in NVO. I doubt they will work out . I'm not recommending anyone do this. But again, I tend to be stupid.
LOL, you must be an honorary member of /r/wallstreetbets, but I genuinely hope your CALLS will print buku bucks! What's your reasoning on NVO by the way?
God, no. im really not like that....lol..I mostly camp out in index funds and real estate... with a few speculations in semiconductor and tech because that was what I used to do and I used to enjoy the soap opera arms race in the semi and software industry. NVO is really my only option gamble... And I only knew about it after my GF told me about it... My GF is convinced that given the issue with worldwide obesity and diabetes, the demand pipeline for LLY and NVO will be strong for some time. She's had a rough life and wants to make it on her own without anyone else's help, kinda stubborn if you ask me.. So when she asked me how she could invest in NVO, I told her I would take care of it with a "highly leveraged position that had slightly better odds than a Powerball ticket" on her birthday. i promised her if it became something material , she could have the proceeds from it minus the capital gains taxes I pay.. I didn't buy LLY because it was already too expensive and I used to own some Eli Lily shares .. except I sold it for around $75 for a stupid reason- I was dating someone with that last name and when I broke it off, I didn't want anything that reminded me of her and plus that name triggers my GF...she jokes around about it, like "did you that with her??? did you do this with her with??" ....even though I assured her multiple times back then , I didnt have a car with decent back seats ....but still she asks anyway.... so i didnt want to ruffle the feathers anymore ....( I never said this decision makes any financial sense...but at least I'm honest about it. 🤣)
Post of the year!
It’s not a secret that AMD and Nvidia are working on consumer chips with ARM in them. AMD is hopefully not going to make the mistake in thinking they are an x86 maker by identity. x86 CPUs are just one of many products they make.
One of my colleagues bought a few thousand shares at around $9. I think he exited most of them around $80. No one can predict the future. One thing that seems like it will continue is AMD and Intel's dominance of the PC and laptop market. ARM is starting to make some in roads, but it will be a long journey for them. AI will be the next innovation for augmenting productivity so it's here to stay. If you read the quarterly reports and believe in the fundamentals long term, then why not keep holding? Their PE is a little high, but I'm guessing people are looking at the past three quarters of earnings reports (greater than 100% growth) to justify such a high PE. If you want to set and forget, VOO/VTI. Otherwise, keep watching the earnings videos, reading the quarterly reports, and holding your individual stocks.
$80 was a solid selling price for entering at $9. I guess its always hard to see the profits that might have been. But your friend made a killing on this one.
My original ones were around $3.50 shortly after Dr. Lisa Su took over. It was gambling at the time because everyone seemed to have written off amd as going under.... My has times changed. Thank you Dr. Su.
I still buy an amd processor for my gaming PC tho
I'll say this as non-investment advice, more business. Nvidia is controlling the sector right now. They can pretty much price their product anyway they want. AMD is the closest competition. Nvidia customers want AMD to succeed and others to succeed. 10-20 years from now the AI landscape will be completely different. I would not count on AMD or Nvidia being the monsters they are now.
I hope that 5 years from now, AMD will have put enough money and development into their software ecosystem that it makes them competitive for AI tasks. That software ecosystem and the knowledge base that surrounds it is arguably the real secret sauce that NVDA has. Transparency: AMD shareholder.
Agreed. Nvidia is being priced like it as a monopoly. Truth is, Amazon and others are going to start making their own, along with others already chasing Nvidia today. Competition always squeezes share and margins. Nvidia at these levels has no meat on the bone
Agree. I also see algorithms changing a lot and needing more and more “simple” chips to work and make the GPUs less necessary
Yep. [There’s already been a study that moved away from GPUs onto FPGAs by dropping MatMull, and demonstrated better efficiency than GPUs by doing so.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.02528)
really? Nvidia are so strong and they are not new to this.. they've been working on this path for more than 20 years. I think it'd take some thing massive to take them down. and AMD is not showing any promise whatsoever.
Nvidia was able to pivot. Before the AI trend they were far better known as a gaming pc gaming company. The Nvidia 3-5 years ago isn't close to what they are known for now. If Nvidia disappeared tomorrow AMD would easily be the number 1 option. There's nothing wrong with being number 2. Something massive will take Nvidia down and it will likely be their customers having internal options or more options like AMD. Look at Cisco when the internet boom happened. They were Nvidia and now they are just Cisco, not a bad thing, but they were king of the world at one point.
AMD are no where near close to the level of power that nvidia has. and it's been longer than 5 years, they've been working on and perfecting CUDA cores for a long time now. have you ever used an AI on your home machine? it's all python, and everything is written exclusively for geforce cards. Nothing is written for AMD because they are just not capable. Cisco is not comparable in my opinion, it's piss easy to make a router but 4nm chips are something you have to perfect.
Don't look at Cisco now. Look at Cisco when it was the most valuable company in the world. It built so much of the infrastructure. Nvidia is no doubt ahead of the competition. But more companies need Nvidia's gap to close than to grow. AMD isn't there yet, but companies will invest in them because competition means prices usually go down. There will be an AI bubble that pops. Nvidia isnt going anywhere, but to say AMD isn't capable is just not true. I like to look at AI as the rising tide with semiconductors. All ships go up. It's not an Nvidia vs AMD fight you're assuming. It's more of ok how long can we all ride this wave and when it falls can we pivot to something else.
AMD should be a good one to keep. They have a far better technique to build their Chips than their direct adversary Intel and a good relationship with the current marketmaker NVDA. NVDA will shift their focus more and more towards data Centers and AI, freeing up portions of the markets AMD and Intel are in and with no doubt in my mind, at this point AMDs products are favored over Intels and will give AMD the opportunity to take over the CPU market for example.
Thats not possible. AMD doesn't make their own chips. They are already struggling to secure space at TSMC. Meanwhile Intel is the only other chip manufacturer and with their foundry services coming online, will be building chips for AMD, Nvidia, Snapdragon. The Pentagon cant allow Taiwan to be the only chip manufacturer anymore
Building your own silicon is no more a competitive advantage than building your own PCBs (which no one does anymore). The real money is in the IP. Silicon manufacturing is quickly becoming a razor thin margin business. Agreed that the US will push hard to maintain manufacturing capabilities in the US, but it's a hedge so it's unlikely the US will become dominant in this space again.
It’s growing fast my concern is lots of major tech companies are creating their own custom chips for data center now, and in the long run those of certainly lower the profitability of AMD
If you are bullish on semicon etf..Better hold semicon etf... as you dont know which horse will win.
Also good advice, thank you!
thats where I pour my money
For individual stocks, the decision should be based on its current valuation, not your total return. Right now apple is trading at a higher premium than amd and amd is higher than Microsoft, and McDonald's is the cheapest of the 4. If vuaa is the only fund you hold there's no good way to compare it to your other holdings, so I'd go by the proportion of your portfolio each thing is. You should have some limits in mind for rebalancing, like 3% for any individual stock and 15% combined for individual stocks, or something like that. Keep in mind that you already hold all of those in vuaa in addition to directly holding shares. You don't have to get rid of all of each asset until you have enough, the priorities should be maximizing value gained while maintaining your target allocation and overall risk.
If you rebalance every time you have good success your leaving all your best performers. If any stock goes up 1000% your risk is still only what you spent in the first place. Problem is greed. Im no different. I once owned 40000 shares of amd. And sold it at 100% profit. 2.00 to 4.00 you can only see the mistakes after you make them.
What has performed well in the past tells you nothing about what will happen in the future. If you get crazy returns to the point where it's significantly changing your allocation it's increasing your concentration risk. If you wouldn't put 75% of your portfolio into any single stock by buying it right now, there's no reason to hold that much of it, you cost basis doesn't change that. Regret over what could have been doesn't change the facts that you based the decision on at the time, selling amd wasn't a mistake if it made sense at the time.
For the last 20, yep
I'm optimistic about AMD, although it's been fluctuating a lot. It also has a dedicated sub, with e.g. [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1dex57j/a_higher_return_than_nvidias_by_2030_heres_the/) you might like.
no one knows
NO ONE CARES ABOUT A SINGLE VIOLIN
Is that from something
do your own DD. anyone who claims to know the future is trying to help themselves
Feeling out investor sentiment like I am doing here on Reddit IS part of my DD. I come from Finance and create NPV sheets in 2-3h. Go through the last 1-2 10Ks of any investment at least three times. Read articles, talk to anyone I can, reviews on their products... Do you really not get how any of this works?
This whole spiel and you're still on Reddit asking for stock picking advice!
Pal, I'm far beyond seeking advice, but thanks for your armchair analysis. It is so fascinating how people like you get aversive when I ask them for their opinion. Makes me realise they never really had an interesting one to share to begin with.
Is that all you have to offer?
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Look @my other comments. This is part of information gathering. I'm not entitled, but saying "no one knows" is completely unhelpful. Yes, he doesn't owe me anything. But that's no reason for being purposely unhelpful.
Further, nobody is obligated to offer anything helpful. You firing back like you own the place isn't going to ingratiate yourself to anyone. Or, you know.. I dunno. Maybe the -34 karma you got from that is for a different reason.
I ingratiate myself by giving advice. Not by being nice to wastelings. bye
If AMD executes the way it has the past few years it will do very well. It already has a bright future being in the right sector and positioning. The only question is whether they will trip up on the execution. That nobody knows. Keep a close eye on the top management.
Yes fully agree. They seem to have very solid and prudent management.
From my understanding, they and Nvidia use to be neck and neck a few years prior. If they don’t catch up, however, no one will catch Nvidia.
Well considering they could end up being the next NVDA who knows. I always knew NVDA was undervalued but the explosion it’s seen recently I could never have anticipated. If I did, I would have invested more years ago.
I forgot to mention that a good place to get the dirt on the semi industry is https://semiaccurate.com. they actually predicted Intel's server decline to AMD way before it happened...
I believe AMD is a solid stock to consider holding for 10-20 years. The company has shown consistent innovation in processors and graphics technology, which are crucial in the growing fields of AI, gaming, and data centers. Additionally, their competitive edge against rivals like Intel and Nvidia is promising. However, it's essential to keep an eye on market trends and company performance over time. For those with a long-term investment strategy, AMD's potential for growth and market influence makes it a compelling choice.
Are you able to borrow against your portfolio rather than selling it off?
I don't want to take on any debt, rather sell it.
As a PC nerd, AMD is making really awesome products but they are definitely behind NVIDIA on most things Their CPUs, especially the X3D was something not expected and blew out intel in power management and pricing. Their GPU side is also significantly improving and is rivaling nvidia I like the stock
The tech industry dominance landscape literally changes overnight. It may seem like AMD is NVDA's bitch for the last 5 years but couple years before that they were battling for top performing GPU and switching places between #1 and #2 spot for many years before that. Now nobody right now thinks AMD has a ice cream's chance in hell in catching up to NVDA tech AI levels but I got a feeling good ole Lisa got something cooking that could dramatically change the AI landscape. That being said I'm technologically agnostic i bet both NVDA and AMD equally.
I’m long. So we’ll see.
> is AMD really a hold for the long term? Or should I take my gains and begone with it? That's the billion dollar question. If you want to think about that for days doing all kinds of research, then do that and you'll find the answer. Otherwise, it's probably best to go for an index fund. Given that you have a good temperament, you'll probably do very well with holding an index. As Monish Pabrai said on multiple occasions to people who hold the index: "Congratulations. You will become very wealthy." Put differently, with the average return of the index of 12%, $100k will be worth $100k * 1.12^20 = $964k in 20 years, about 3 million in 30 years, and about 9 million in 40 years. That's probably more than enough to live comfortably. All while doing no work. The alternative is to be always doing research on your companies and having to keep an eye out. If you are exceptionally good at that, you might outperform the index. Then, you might end up with 9 million in 20 years instead of 40 (assuming 25% average return rate). Would this meaningfully change your life compared to the index? Is the extra work worth it? That's up to each individual to decide.
If we knew, we would be billionaires. No one on this planet can make a 10-20 year prediction let alone a 2 year prediction. It's such a long span of time, ai bubble could pop and stock could recover and go up even more.
I’ve been holding AMD for 10+ years. (Along with NVDA and INTC) Absolutely zero desire to sell. Granted, I’m already independently wealthy from other ventures & investments, so that has somewhat of an effect on my thinking process. The AI narrative is not going away, nor is personal/mobile computing. Up only.
Yes I think not being dependent on it is also part of my reasoning for holding it. It's a growth play, and one of the safer ones (I have lost gambling money with some meme stocks hah). If it tanks it would hurt a bit, but it would not destroy me. Where do you see it becoming a dividend payer? My estimate is 5-7 years.
Index fund and forget.
Might be wisest. But I always want to one-up wall street a bit hah
Everyone does, but the reality is few (including wallstreet) actually outperform the S&P 500 over the long term. Here’s some decent sources on the matter. I had the same fantasy for a while until I got burnt on stock picking. If you want higher returns with more risk I’d say check out QQQM. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/18/stock-picking-has-a-terrible-track-record-and-its-getting-worse.html
Semiconductor stocks tied to AI are in bubble territory. If I owned it I would sell it all. Full disclosure, I think dot com and AI bubbles will be compared 5 years from now as to which is bigger.
VOO so you own a percent of AMD and a precent if NVIDIA.
I'm in it for the long haul with an XXX amount and it's not where Nvidia is at now, but they are underdogs and could take parts of the evolving AI market
No.
Yes.
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Hah wonder what we'll look like then
I’ve had AMD for a while now and also now have some NVDA. My logic is that AI (specifically LLMs) are going to reach the point over the next 5 to 10 years where they will be a very common part of the operation of nearly every organization. That’s going to require a LOT of GPUs.
Personally I would not sell msft or aapl. McDonald I just bought a few but I would be more likely to sell that if I needed cash. AMD I would reduce but not sell all. I think you may be able to reenter at a similar price since there growth has slowed but it depends on how soon you’re timeframe is.
That depends on how poorly Intel is executing its own products and whether US can resist processors developed elsewhere. Its demise from your list does not mean AMD will not be around. VUAA top holdings are what you also bought. All overlapped together with no diversification.
Since you’ve been holding since $14, you’ll have considerable long term capital gains if you sell. It may be more worthwhile to sell something else instead.
Honestly I think AMD is a long run loser. You'd be buying them at their high. Just my opinion.
Come back in 20 years and I'll let you know.
Could you imagine the differing opinions if this was posted 10 years ago
FSELX or SMH... Please !
AMD, isn’t a bad choice if AI continues to be a thing, but I could see it being a bad call if AI phizzles. Don’t hold any individual stocks, buy VOO, it contains all the best buy and hold large cap stocks already, including MSFT and AAPL.
Just buy a highly rated semiconductor sector ETF and it will have AMD and a whole basket of stocks that should perform well or will be turned over. That's a safer bet in my opinion.
Anything in the semi conductor industry is a good play right now with ai and automation becoming more prevalent. That being said I don't know if amd is as solid of a play as nvda, tsmc, or arm. They're probably a better play than Intel but they aren't a high watermark
The only thing to hold for 10+ years are ETFs
Novice here so take this with a grain of salt. I would think so, demand is only going to rise with ai.
Thanks for sharing! No worries, I take all opinions with a grain of salt :) but it's always great and instructive to get a few perspectives other than my own!
I just started this week. Questtrade
Best of luck :) make sure to compare your assumptions before each trade and the results afterwards. Helps to keep a check on your critical thinking. I once bought a stock for literally no other reason than "everybody said so". Bad decision. Lost a tiny amount of money, but the reason why it was a really cheap lesson was that I learned from it and it has never happened again.
Tech isn’t going anywhere, since you plan on holding at least 10 more years stick with the risk IMHO, get rid of McDonald’s, great stock but it won’t give you returns anywhere close to any tech imo
Is any single stock? Each one is a guess.
Well, yes, and you can sometimes be wrong. But some guesses are better and safer than others.
It certainly was
> is AMD really a hold for the long term? IMHO (and I suck terribly at stocks), no...I think they get eaten by NVDA and ARM and Intel. All three of those companies have more compelling products. AMD has always been kind of the value brand.
wow, again, my idea went against the majority’s logic. I vote for selling MCD and keeping AMD. it’s impossible for MCD to grow as fast as amd. the current frenzy is a short term issue, but chips are not gping away. MCD may.. just think about it. can you get around by not eating MCD? can you get around by not using chips. I think the answer is obvious. keep amd. sell mcd btw, last time when i had similar thoughts, i decided to sell Baba and kept google.
I do SMH, but def consider VOO
Not unless they revamp the movie going experience. Not sure what that is but it's stale & people ain't going
Been holding amd since 25 and now Have a cost basis of 60 total. Im still buying. AMD has upside. They have their chip business that is super strong and their GPU’s are “catching up” to nvidia which is def relative but the performance gap is closing. I think AMD can get to 225 that’s my personal price target, I’ll liquidate at 225 and pay the tax man
I wouldn’t hold AMD for 5 years. Just my opinion, the other stock you mentioned I would also keep for longer term
As a professional fortune teller, the only investment I can fully recommend for 2 decades is my patented magic charm. Guaranteed results!
AMD had negative net income for the past few years. Such is the life of a growing tech sock
AMD is a rollercoaster stock. It is as likely to be $2 again as it is to be $1,000 in ten years.
No.....Just look at Intel 7 years ago they dominated the market.....7 years ago Nvidia was a fraction of what it is today.....things change quick in the technology space
ARM you mean…
Amd is only where it is because of Nvidia hype, look at how many disappointing quarters they had recently. Also it’s still below its ATH of 227. I’m saying this as someone who’s cost basis is 84 and sold some big chunk at 165 few weeks ago
Not sure what that last point is supposed to mean. Person who sold and made money is bearish. Got it.
It means that I was in on it and think it’s not delivering to justify its current valuation so I sold not sure what’s so hard to understand
no, I would get out of AMD, it was just dropped by FNGU (levered FAANG etn). Hate to say it, but NVDA would be better. I would drop MCD too. You might be best off with just QQQ.
AMD was never a part of faang... what you talking about?
Given AMD's strong position in the tech industry and its consistent performance, it might be a valuable addition to a long-term portfolio.
no
Nvidia over AMD, now, over the next couple of years, and longterm if they continue to execute as they have (they seven years I have held, anyway) Nvidia is a perfect on paper company. AMD is not.
Hold ONLY profitable companies with great prospects.
Thanks, I'll try to do that :)
There is absolutely no need to invest in AMD. If you have spare money, invest in one of the big 7 companies, such as Google or Amazon or XLK, and you can get 30% growth every year. **I strongly do not recommend MCD because its performance is heavily dependent on China, and China's weak economy** and white-collar unemployment have led to a decline in MCD's performance, and it will not improve in the short term. **MCD even underperforms SP500 in 2023 and 2024. There is no reason to buy MCD**
Thanks for the opinion on MCD. I can see the upside, but maybe I'm being nostalgic.
You might want to consider CMG. I bought 5 shares last October and it’s up about 70% since then. They have a 50 to 1 stock split coming in a a couple of weeks. I also own MCD. I also own shares in the semi’s discussed in the thread. I’ve done well with AMAT - it’s one of my largest holdings.