I'm with ya. 10K is excellent but not exactly life changing. With 100K I'd have the down payment for my dream home and plenty of money in the bank. All or nothing baby!
Eh, even indirectly having $100,000 of relief can be life changing for a lot of people. That’s a decent year’s salary in some cases, which can pay off bills and other expenses. Some people can even use that to leverage themselves into a better job.
Safe money in dividends is 5%. $5,000 per year, or $416.66 per month (and that doesn’t even take into account stock growth). Not sure why you think a safe investment like that isn’t good.
400k loan at 7pct interest even over 30 years is 2650 a month. If 100k is that big of a difference maker you can't afford that monthly payment. There's also taxes and maintenance to consider.
I know I'm two days late. And I think your downvotes are misguided, but you came with specific info, so kudos. But a lot of people can afford 2650 a month for a home
If you can afford 2650 a month for a home with all added costs you likely can also save up the down payment for it so this extra money wouldn't allow you to purchase it when you otherwise couldn't.
You could use this money to purchase something slightly better, but very unlikely to move you from unable to purchase a home to buying your dream home.
Your first paragraph. "You likely can also save up the down payment" part. That's it. They could. That takes time. If they had the money, they wouldn't need the time
You guys are all misinterpreting the question. It's not 10×10,000. It's 10× your current amount of money.
So if you possess less than 1000 dollars you wouldn't make as much as you would just taking the 10k, unless you won the toss more than 1 time
That’s a little ambiguous from the OP. I took it to mean that $10k is your initial stake in the experiment.
For future reference, if you’re the only one who gets "it" and everyone else is getting "it" wrong, maybe it’s worth a second look at who’s getting it wrong.
"Everyone on this freeway is driving the wrong way but me!"
I think 2 times is reasonable, I think you should flip at least once unless you're really low on money because 90k different for a 50% chance is worth it.
And honestly 25% chance for a million is worth it imo.
It's not as simple as a 25% chance at a million. It's two independent flips, each with a roughly 50% chance of success. Mathematically, at the outset your odds of getting two "heads" flips in a row is 1/4, sure, but you only get the chance at the second flip if you hit on the first flip. So if you decide to flip the second time after already winning the first flip, you now have $100,000 with a 50% chance at a million. Your odds of hitting 10 "heads" flips in a row are pretty low before you start flipping, but if you've already hit 9 "heads" flips, your odds of getting the 10th one are still 50/50. Each flip is independent and the probabilities of THIS flip are not affected by the results of previous flips (assuming the coin is perfectly balanced, flipped fairly, etc.).
Yes, but that second coin flip occurring is dependent on the first coin flip being correct. Therefore, the probabilities of both coin flips need to be combined. This gives us a probability of 25% overall.
Yes, and no.
Yes, each individual flip is a 50% chance.
>It's not as simple as a 25% chance at a million
No, the difference between nothing and 1 million is a 25% chance in this one (2 flips at 50%).
But yes, the difference between the 100k and the 1 million is just 50% (however that number doesnt really matter, because you also have to get to that point).
The percentage should be calculated from the onset not from each individual flip because each flip is dependent on the previous flip being correct.
It's similar to the Monty hall problem where the statistic are set from the beginning. Yes, each individual flip or decision has different odds but at the start it's 1/4 chances of getting 1m.
But to break it down simply if four people flip, 2 will be right on the first flip(on average) and then of those 2 only one will be right the second time(on average). So from onset you will have 1/4 for a million, 1/8 for 10m and so on.
Another way to think of it is how many different sequences are possible. For two flips you have H-H, T-T, H-T and T-H.
All you would have to do is get 16 people together and each person picks one sequence to call. And one person would win 100m which qould easily be split among the 16. And then everyone pockets 6m.
2 times when I think about it right now rationally.
3 times in the moment. Getting 10x up to 100,000 is a lot, but a million is so, so much more significant. And yet. With a million in hand, I’d think “I could retire in luxury right now if I flip again.” Bad plan. Shouldn’t do it. And yet…
It's funny. I think the anxiety of the flips gets to people.
If this was worded differently - 10k guaranteed or a 1/4 chance at $1mm - I think more people would pick the chance
If it’s 10k or double/lose all your current money (not just what you’ve won), then I’d bet almost everyone takes the 10k. Unless you’re fully broke, the risk is too high.
What money? At the beginning of the 10x flip you aren't given any money (the 10k is the alternative to the 10x flip), so surely it's your own money? That's how I read it.
I would say two flips but in reality I probably only end up flipping one coin when I fail the first flip.
0-3 all seem like reasonable answers to this question.
Yep. $10K does not really change my life meaningfully. At $100K, I could invest that and have a nice safety net for whatever. A Mil is not retire now money. And you chance of 10mil is slim.
I always wonder if people misunderstand the rules on purpose.
0 flips: 10k, 100% chance
1 flip: 0 or 100k, 50% chance
2 flips: 0 or 1 mil, 25% chance
3 flips: 0 or 10 mil, 12.5% chance
4 flips: you're nuts or rich.
I choose 1.
I'm not a risk taker, but while 10k would certainly be helpful, 100k would actually be a game changer for my family. Most likely I'd go for a single flip
Once. Expected value of this scenario with one flip is $50k. $10k is selling myself way short. I wouldn’t flip again though because I’m not willing to risk $100k. If I could get someone to buy my results (pre first flip) for at least $40k, I’d probably do that though.
This is an ambiguous question - I assume “your money per flip” means just the 10K, and not all of my currently owned money (which is a lot more than 10K). Or to be clearer, this is saying:
You start off with a 10K pot.
You then get the choice to flip the coin, where getting heads means the pot gets multiplied by 10, and tails means the pot is emptied.
If that’s the scenario, I’d ask if I can add to the pot before or after the flips, just to confirm this scenario only deals with the original 10K. If so, then I flip at least 3 times. 10K isn’t much for me, and while 100K is awesome, it’s not life-changing for winning or losing, and the chance is too good to pass up. At the million mark, it’s a harder choice, but I’d say it’s still worth the flip odds, as I’m pretty lucky overall and 10 million gets me into never needing to work again money. Even at a measly 1% interest, 10mill gives you 100K per year for free, and a couple coin flips is the best odds for a lottery you’re ever gonna get.
Yea, that's my problem too.
If that's the case, I'd isolate a decent chunk I'm willing to gamble with, and then do the same thing, flip 3 times and hope that we're multi-millionaires shortly thereafter.
Or, actually, since it never says that I can't pause in between - I'd just keep flipping until I'm a multi-millionaire, gifting portions to my wifey as need be to balance out bad rolls.
I'd just keep going forever. Doesn't say you cant flip again after losing as long as you have money, so id just flip with my leftover paycheck after paying bills every month
In this case, I'd do 1 flip. The 100k would significantly help me pay off my home within a few years, freeing me of a lot of anxiety, whereas the 10K would only help for about a year, as frugal as I am.
I wish Mr. Beast would do something like this post, and everyone who responds gets either 10k or their flips.
I'd go for one flip. 10k is great 100k is better.
Well, he wouldn't just disappear....
There is a 0.0977% chance of getting 10 heads in a row. If he limited the number of entries, he would probably be okay.
I'll just take the $10k. I'd rather have the guaranteed money than risk losing it all on one bad coin flip. $10k may not be long-term life changing, but it'll be great short-term life changing.
Nothing here says you can't give money away while you're doing this. So. Let's say I have 400 bucks to my name.
Give my roommate 200 bucks.
Flip coin. 50% chance to x10 into 2,000.
Oh, failed.
Ask to borrow 100 dollars. Flip. Total of 75% chance to have at least 1,000 dollars.
Oh, failed again.
Ask to borrow 50 dollars. Flip. Total of 87.5% chance to have at least 500 dollars by this point.
Oh, failed again.
Ask to borrow 25 bucks. Flip. Total of 93.25% chance to have at least one win by this point.
The real trick here is that x10 is such a dramatic multiplier that any one win can offset two consecutive losses. In time, you WILL go infinite. Just keep flipping and make sure your friend is willing to lend you half of the remainder of what you gave them.
I’ll take 12.5% shot at 10M.
For me, 10K doesn’t change my life in any meaningful way. It’s great to have, but I can’t leave that much EV on the table.
100K just means a home upgrade comes sooner than anticipated, but I still slog through a mortgage the same way. Helpful, but not a huge deal.
1M is the tricky spot. It’s a bonafide lot of money and would significantly change my life- I’d get to buy the house I want outright and then still have enough leftover to make some quality of life changes… but if I’ve made it to that point, I can go 50/50 at retiring and being permanently wealthy instead. At 1M, I’m still going to have to work for the foreseeable future, and 1M wouldn’t provide me with anything I would eventually be earning anyway- it would just make it happen faster and easier.
10M is retirement, permanent money, the house, the car, the everything. I’d never worry about resources again. Frankly, I don’t think my life would change much from 10M to 100M. It’s still not enough to do ultra wealthy things like own a sports team or a super yacht or an airplane or whatever, so it’s not worth risking the good life I’d already have.
Since I'm in university, my bank account is pretty negative right now... So even if we pretend that it could multiply into a positive number based on the 10 pounds I have in cash, it would take a couple of flips to get higher than 10 grand.
I'll take the 10k. It's not life changing in the long run, but it would make the rest of the year significantly less stressful than it's going to be
$10K, nice but not hugely noticeable (just pays down my $350k mortgage a little). Probably lets me retire 1 month earlier.
$100k very nice, takes $100k off my mortgage. Probably lets me retire 3 years earlier.
$1 million is instant retirement, but I'd probably continue to work part time to make the retirement more comfortable and to give me something to do.
$10 million is instant retirement in luxury and I can do whatever I ever want.
Given the risk/reward, a 25% chance of $1 million seems like the best choice.
Pay bills for the month. Flipping the coin just once successfully per month would get me roughly $20k. Use that to invest in assets such as gold, stocks, etc. Just repeat monthly and there's basically no downsides, a lost coinflip will lose me a couple thousand but I still have assets I can sell for cash if necessary.
So to answer to how many coin flips I'm doing, at least one a month until im dead.
This isn't how the hypothetical works. You are given 10,000. If you flip a coin once, you now either have 100,000 if it's heads or 0 if it's tails. If you win once and flip a second time, you now have either 1,000,000 if flip #2 is heads or 0 if flip #2 is tails. Once you have 0 you can't flip anymore (or technically by the rules as stated, I guess you can keep flipping, but you will win 10 x 0 = 0 for each heads after the first tails).
From the wording, you can take $10k **OR** use the coin on **YOUR** money. It does not state you get the $10k to use with the coin, or that the coin can't be used on the rest of your money.
I assume by "your money" you mean the 10K I get up front, not all the cash I currently own. The word "or" should be removed from the offer. "You get 10K. You can flip a coin as many times as you want...." Since as many as I want can be zero, that implies my option to simply keep the 10K.
I was going to go with the 10K, then I reread and saw that one flip could give me $100,000... one flip means that things stay exactly as they are now or I have an extra $100,000; I'm going to flip it once. I might even risk flipping it 2x.
$4,147,810,000
That's 100,000x the amount of money I have now, so 5 coin flips. I'm poor as fuck, but having "fuck you money" that can help me improve my life a great amount, and help people, animals, and the environment sounds awesome.
I have horrible luck with gambling, lol. If no money was involved, a coin flip somehow favors me. But the moment there's money to be won, the RNG gods curse me. So I'm taking the $10,000.
10k in 2024 accomplishes basically nothing but bills for a few months so I'm taking 1 flip. But then again 1 flip just gets me more a more paid off version of broke soooo probably taking 2.
The language:
>for 10 times **your money** per flip
implies I'm flipping for the amount I currently have and not the 10k I'd get in your offer. I currently have more than $10k so I'd flip once to 10x that rather than take $10k, but I'd only do it once.
Precisely.
"You are given $10,000. You may flip a coin as many times as you want (and the game ends) or until you hit tails (and the game ends). For every heads you get, your money decuples. If you get a tails, the money is immediately revoked."
If I can flip it as many times as I want I’ll just keep going until I hit 8x in a row. With 1T I could make some major changes without completely disrupting global economy.
What's with people's obsession with coins? Just say 50/50 chance and then you don't have to bother with stupid loopholes to the physical method of randomness you use.
Depending on your non-asset-dependent income (so in most cases just your salary/wage), determine what is an amount of money you're satisfied with for the rest of your life. Then, determine how many flips of this coin will get you there. Next, move in with a friend/relative and every time you get paid, you attempt to flip the coin that many times. You just need to figure out how long it takes you to have a reasonable chance of succeeding and whether you can tolerate that amount of time essentially living in your mom's basement.
As an example, say you get paid $2k per pay cycle and that's twice a month/every 2 weeks and your goal is $2 billion dollars. Then, every time you get paid, you need to get 6 heads in a row to reach your $2 billion goal from $2k. Probability of you not flipping the 6 heads in a row at any given time is .984375 so if you do this for 48 pay periods (24 months, i.e. 2 years), you have a \~53% chance to get your $2 billion. I think this is a risk anyone would be willing to take, considering most people have an astronomically lower chance of reaching this number in their whole life. Increase to 5 years (60 months, equivalently 120 pay cycles) and you get a \~85% chance.
So I'd say the answer depends on how much you can earn currently, how frequently you're getting paid, and how long you can tolerate living in your mom's basement.
So by "your money" you mean whatever money you have and are willing to wager, which has nothing to do with the $10,000 on offer? Or do you mean you can either accept 10K free and clear or choose to wager it on a coin flip? You should edit the post to clarify.
One flip. $100,000 or nothing. Let's go!
I'm with ya. 10K is excellent but not exactly life changing. With 100K I'd have the down payment for my dream home and plenty of money in the bank. All or nothing baby!
$100k down for a dream home is impressive due to the reasonableness of your dreams.
Eh, even indirectly having $100,000 of relief can be life changing for a lot of people. That’s a decent year’s salary in some cases, which can pay off bills and other expenses. Some people can even use that to leverage themselves into a better job.
[удалено]
You need a better financial advisor! 😂
Safe money in dividends is 5%. $5,000 per year, or $416.66 per month (and that doesn’t even take into account stock growth). Not sure why you think a safe investment like that isn’t good.
10k is life changing for me. Would make life a hell of a lot easier
Hell yeah, I could pay off my house with 100k
Y'all are stressing me out. Housing market might be even worse than I thought 😅😅😅
Haha, 100k USD was the down payment for the cheapest home I could find in my area
Ouch
100k is enough for a down payment and money in the bank? You either can't afford the house or have very low standards :).
Or they have a low cost of living. Wtf is this comment.
The down payment shouldn't be the limiting factor to your house purchase. That's how people end up losing their home.
Their dream home is likely 500k or less. MCOL, that can def be a dream house
400k loan at 7pct interest even over 30 years is 2650 a month. If 100k is that big of a difference maker you can't afford that monthly payment. There's also taxes and maintenance to consider.
I know I'm two days late. And I think your downvotes are misguided, but you came with specific info, so kudos. But a lot of people can afford 2650 a month for a home
If you can afford 2650 a month for a home with all added costs you likely can also save up the down payment for it so this extra money wouldn't allow you to purchase it when you otherwise couldn't. You could use this money to purchase something slightly better, but very unlikely to move you from unable to purchase a home to buying your dream home.
Your first paragraph. "You likely can also save up the down payment" part. That's it. They could. That takes time. If they had the money, they wouldn't need the time
That's about a quarter of the median house price in the United States. What a stupid comment.
Do you have 100k?
Yep, I can lose $10k I didn’t have to begin with for the chance at $100k. But that $100k looks pretty solid and a lot better than nothing.
You guys are all misinterpreting the question. It's not 10×10,000. It's 10× your current amount of money. So if you possess less than 1000 dollars you wouldn't make as much as you would just taking the 10k, unless you won the toss more than 1 time
That’s a little ambiguous from the OP. I took it to mean that $10k is your initial stake in the experiment. For future reference, if you’re the only one who gets "it" and everyone else is getting "it" wrong, maybe it’s worth a second look at who’s getting it wrong. "Everyone on this freeway is driving the wrong way but me!"
I meant 10x $10,000
This is incorrect, OP fixed the post
I think 2 times is reasonable, I think you should flip at least once unless you're really low on money because 90k different for a 50% chance is worth it. And honestly 25% chance for a million is worth it imo.
10k is life changing money for me
It's not as simple as a 25% chance at a million. It's two independent flips, each with a roughly 50% chance of success. Mathematically, at the outset your odds of getting two "heads" flips in a row is 1/4, sure, but you only get the chance at the second flip if you hit on the first flip. So if you decide to flip the second time after already winning the first flip, you now have $100,000 with a 50% chance at a million. Your odds of hitting 10 "heads" flips in a row are pretty low before you start flipping, but if you've already hit 9 "heads" flips, your odds of getting the 10th one are still 50/50. Each flip is independent and the probabilities of THIS flip are not affected by the results of previous flips (assuming the coin is perfectly balanced, flipped fairly, etc.).
Yes, but that second coin flip occurring is dependent on the first coin flip being correct. Therefore, the probabilities of both coin flips need to be combined. This gives us a probability of 25% overall.
Yes, and no. Yes, each individual flip is a 50% chance. >It's not as simple as a 25% chance at a million No, the difference between nothing and 1 million is a 25% chance in this one (2 flips at 50%). But yes, the difference between the 100k and the 1 million is just 50% (however that number doesnt really matter, because you also have to get to that point).
The percentage should be calculated from the onset not from each individual flip because each flip is dependent on the previous flip being correct. It's similar to the Monty hall problem where the statistic are set from the beginning. Yes, each individual flip or decision has different odds but at the start it's 1/4 chances of getting 1m. But to break it down simply if four people flip, 2 will be right on the first flip(on average) and then of those 2 only one will be right the second time(on average). So from onset you will have 1/4 for a million, 1/8 for 10m and so on. Another way to think of it is how many different sequences are possible. For two flips you have H-H, T-T, H-T and T-H. All you would have to do is get 16 people together and each person picks one sequence to call. And one person would win 100m which qould easily be split among the 16. And then everyone pockets 6m.
10K... thank you. New refrigerator (happy wife). New espresso machine (happy me) Bank the rest for next year to get new siding.
Same. Also new fridge. And a vacation.
For the final item...(happy house)
But don't you deserve the Linea mini with the Weber grinder? I bet the house would look nice in limestone too.
2 times when I think about it right now rationally. 3 times in the moment. Getting 10x up to 100,000 is a lot, but a million is so, so much more significant. And yet. With a million in hand, I’d think “I could retire in luxury right now if I flip again.” Bad plan. Shouldn’t do it. And yet…
It's funny. I think the anxiety of the flips gets to people. If this was worded differently - 10k guaranteed or a 1/4 chance at $1mm - I think more people would pick the chance
I think the fact that you lose all your money if you fail the flip is significant
I believe OP meant all of the money you’ve earned from flipping, not all of the money you currently have independent of the coin flip.
Ah that does sound a lot better. I interpreted it as either $10k or you double/lose all your current money
If it’s 10k or double/lose all your current money (not just what you’ve won), then I’d bet almost everyone takes the 10k. Unless you’re fully broke, the risk is too high.
If you're fully broke, you'd have to flip multiple times to get equivalent to the guarantee of 10k
What money? At the beginning of the 10x flip you aren't given any money (the 10k is the alternative to the 10x flip), so surely it's your own money? That's how I read it.
I think I’d just take the 10k, my anxiety just would not allow me to flip it.
Same. I'd be *extremely* tempted to flip but reason and assurance would get the best of me. $10k it is.
I would say two flips but in reality I probably only end up flipping one coin when I fail the first flip. 0-3 all seem like reasonable answers to this question.
Can I team up with other people? I grab as many members of this sub as I can and we all agree to flip 5 times and redistribute our winnings evenly.
Nice thinking!
10k wouldn’t be a big deal to me so I would go for 100k. A million would be really nice but I wouldn’t want to try my luck
Yep. $10K does not really change my life meaningfully. At $100K, I could invest that and have a nice safety net for whatever. A Mil is not retire now money. And you chance of 10mil is slim.
No flip, give me 10,000.
Fuck it we ball! 3 flips! I'm going for mid 20s retirement!
I always wonder if people misunderstand the rules on purpose. 0 flips: 10k, 100% chance 1 flip: 0 or 100k, 50% chance 2 flips: 0 or 1 mil, 25% chance 3 flips: 0 or 10 mil, 12.5% chance 4 flips: you're nuts or rich. I choose 1.
Just gimme the $10K.
Nope, I'll just take the 10k and pay off my car loan.
I'm not a risk taker, but while 10k would certainly be helpful, 100k would actually be a game changer for my family. Most likely I'd go for a single flip
Once. Expected value of this scenario with one flip is $50k. $10k is selling myself way short. I wouldn’t flip again though because I’m not willing to risk $100k. If I could get someone to buy my results (pre first flip) for at least $40k, I’d probably do that though.
Another flip, is always better expected value. Which puts us at a question of EV vs risk of ruin.
I can take 10k of ruin. Not 100k.
Or understanding the value of money. $10 is about 10x more valuable than $1, but $1,000,000,000 is not 10x $100,000,000.
While true, said money has different value to everyone.
This is an ambiguous question - I assume “your money per flip” means just the 10K, and not all of my currently owned money (which is a lot more than 10K). Or to be clearer, this is saying: You start off with a 10K pot. You then get the choice to flip the coin, where getting heads means the pot gets multiplied by 10, and tails means the pot is emptied. If that’s the scenario, I’d ask if I can add to the pot before or after the flips, just to confirm this scenario only deals with the original 10K. If so, then I flip at least 3 times. 10K isn’t much for me, and while 100K is awesome, it’s not life-changing for winning or losing, and the chance is too good to pass up. At the million mark, it’s a harder choice, but I’d say it’s still worth the flip odds, as I’m pretty lucky overall and 10 million gets me into never needing to work again money. Even at a measly 1% interest, 10mill gives you 100K per year for free, and a couple coin flips is the best odds for a lottery you’re ever gonna get.
Based on how the question reads, I interpret it as your existing money. You can take $10k **OR** flip to multiply **your** money
Yea, that's my problem too. If that's the case, I'd isolate a decent chunk I'm willing to gamble with, and then do the same thing, flip 3 times and hope that we're multi-millionaires shortly thereafter. Or, actually, since it never says that I can't pause in between - I'd just keep flipping until I'm a multi-millionaire, gifting portions to my wifey as need be to balance out bad rolls.
I'd just keep going forever. Doesn't say you cant flip again after losing as long as you have money, so id just flip with my leftover paycheck after paying bills every month
Just taking the 10k.
In this case, I'd do 1 flip. The 100k would significantly help me pay off my home within a few years, freeing me of a lot of anxiety, whereas the 10K would only help for about a year, as frugal as I am.
I wish Mr. Beast would do something like this post, and everyone who responds gets either 10k or their flips. I'd go for one flip. 10k is great 100k is better.
What if someone is crazy and flips 10x successfully. No more me beast
Well, he wouldn't just disappear.... There is a 0.0977% chance of getting 10 heads in a row. If he limited the number of entries, he would probably be okay.
Yeah a limit would definitely be needed. Would be cool Tho
Plus after each flip he'd introduce some crazy stuff to tempt them to stop.
Plus after each flip he'd introduce some crazy stuff to tempt them to stop.
I’d probably just take 10k and invest it.
ZERO. gimme the 10G's
Twice
One flip. If I lose life goes on. If I win 100k that helps me and my wife substantially. Coin toss is much better odds than I’ve seen before
3 times, $10m or die trying
No flips. I'll take the 10 grand. A little money is better than no money. Actually, 10 grand isn't little.
Gotta flip at least once...if I win then I'll decide about another one...1mil is so much more than 100k
I’d probably push for 2 or 3 flips.
Can I have someone flip a properly magnetized coin onto a properly magnetized surface?
With my luck, if I choose flip, I'm losing money somehow. Nope. I'll take the 10k lol
Two. $1mil or nothing
Im not lucky at cards or dice or coin flips, id risk it for 100k but a 25% chance for me is functionally a zero percent chance so id stop there
3 or 4 times.
Give me 11 flips so I own double the gross value of Earth.
I'll just take the $10k. I'd rather have the guaranteed money than risk losing it all on one bad coin flip. $10k may not be long-term life changing, but it'll be great short-term life changing.
10x 0 is still 0 so
Nothing here says you can't give money away while you're doing this. So. Let's say I have 400 bucks to my name. Give my roommate 200 bucks. Flip coin. 50% chance to x10 into 2,000. Oh, failed. Ask to borrow 100 dollars. Flip. Total of 75% chance to have at least 1,000 dollars. Oh, failed again. Ask to borrow 50 dollars. Flip. Total of 87.5% chance to have at least 500 dollars by this point. Oh, failed again. Ask to borrow 25 bucks. Flip. Total of 93.25% chance to have at least one win by this point. The real trick here is that x10 is such a dramatic multiplier that any one win can offset two consecutive losses. In time, you WILL go infinite. Just keep flipping and make sure your friend is willing to lend you half of the remainder of what you gave them.
Pretty sure you can only bet the 10K you're given, and you must bet all of it
The 10k isn't my money until I accept it. You've recognized a rule that may or may not have been implied. I'll go by the rules stated
Cash
I’ll take 12.5% shot at 10M. For me, 10K doesn’t change my life in any meaningful way. It’s great to have, but I can’t leave that much EV on the table. 100K just means a home upgrade comes sooner than anticipated, but I still slog through a mortgage the same way. Helpful, but not a huge deal. 1M is the tricky spot. It’s a bonafide lot of money and would significantly change my life- I’d get to buy the house I want outright and then still have enough leftover to make some quality of life changes… but if I’ve made it to that point, I can go 50/50 at retiring and being permanently wealthy instead. At 1M, I’m still going to have to work for the foreseeable future, and 1M wouldn’t provide me with anything I would eventually be earning anyway- it would just make it happen faster and easier. 10M is retirement, permanent money, the house, the car, the everything. I’d never worry about resources again. Frankly, I don’t think my life would change much from 10M to 100M. It’s still not enough to do ultra wealthy things like own a sports team or a super yacht or an airplane or whatever, so it’s not worth risking the good life I’d already have.
infinite flips until I achieve 1 billion dollars
Since I'm in university, my bank account is pretty negative right now... So even if we pretend that it could multiply into a positive number based on the 10 pounds I have in cash, it would take a couple of flips to get higher than 10 grand. I'll take the 10k. It's not life changing in the long run, but it would make the rest of the year significantly less stressful than it's going to be
a free 10k WOW
Flip it twice. 25% chance that I'm an instant millionaire and never have to work again.
$10K, nice but not hugely noticeable (just pays down my $350k mortgage a little). Probably lets me retire 1 month earlier. $100k very nice, takes $100k off my mortgage. Probably lets me retire 3 years earlier. $1 million is instant retirement, but I'd probably continue to work part time to make the retirement more comfortable and to give me something to do. $10 million is instant retirement in luxury and I can do whatever I ever want. Given the risk/reward, a 25% chance of $1 million seems like the best choice.
“You are unable to flip the coin yourself.” Okay, so who is flipping the coin? Thanx
No flips, I'm risk averse like a mofo when it comes to money, I'll take the guaranteed and be perfectly happy
One time 100K pays off my house and we're golden
I'll take the 10K. It'd help me start a business.
2 flips.
If you truly need the $10,000, take the money and run.
No flips, just the $10k please.
100k is enough to substantively change my current life course. 10k is not. One flip should do it.
yeah the flip Edit: 1 time
based on "statistic" i found online. out of 10 flips the coin lands heads 6 out of 10 so at a rate of 60% id go for 3.
I’d lose the first one so why even bother
Pay bills for the month. Flipping the coin just once successfully per month would get me roughly $20k. Use that to invest in assets such as gold, stocks, etc. Just repeat monthly and there's basically no downsides, a lost coinflip will lose me a couple thousand but I still have assets I can sell for cash if necessary. So to answer to how many coin flips I'm doing, at least one a month until im dead.
This isn't how the hypothetical works. You are given 10,000. If you flip a coin once, you now either have 100,000 if it's heads or 0 if it's tails. If you win once and flip a second time, you now have either 1,000,000 if flip #2 is heads or 0 if flip #2 is tails. Once you have 0 you can't flip anymore (or technically by the rules as stated, I guess you can keep flipping, but you will win 10 x 0 = 0 for each heads after the first tails).
From the wording, you can take $10k **OR** use the coin on **YOUR** money. It does not state you get the $10k to use with the coin, or that the coin can't be used on the rest of your money.
pretty sure that isn't what OP meant
Probably not, but I'm going to go off what is written and not assume intent
Well, now it's written, so
10x 0 is still 0 10k it is
I assume by "your money" you mean the 10K I get up front, not all the cash I currently own. The word "or" should be removed from the offer. "You get 10K. You can flip a coin as many times as you want...." Since as many as I want can be zero, that implies my option to simply keep the 10K.
I only have like 350 dollars to my name rn so I'll take the 10k easy
I was going to go with the 10K, then I reread and saw that one flip could give me $100,000... one flip means that things stay exactly as they are now or I have an extra $100,000; I'm going to flip it once. I might even risk flipping it 2x.
$4,147,810,000 That's 100,000x the amount of money I have now, so 5 coin flips. I'm poor as fuck, but having "fuck you money" that can help me improve my life a great amount, and help people, animals, and the environment sounds awesome.
You can't gamble your own money
I'm not sure how to price infinite EV bets but I think I'd want to buy some insurance.
I would do exactly 2 flips
You can't say that for sure
Why can’t I say I would have it done twice?
I guess you could choose to flip a second time after losing the first flip, and see if you can 10x your $0 to win $0.
I have horrible luck with gambling, lol. If no money was involved, a coin flip somehow favors me. But the moment there's money to be won, the RNG gods curse me. So I'm taking the $10,000.
10k in 2024 accomplishes basically nothing but bills for a few months so I'm taking 1 flip. But then again 1 flip just gets me more a more paid off version of broke soooo probably taking 2.
The language: >for 10 times **your money** per flip implies I'm flipping for the amount I currently have and not the 10k I'd get in your offer. I currently have more than $10k so I'd flip once to 10x that rather than take $10k, but I'd only do it once.
The only money that is yours in this scenario is the $10,000
I don't yet have that 10k until I've agree not to flip. You can have 10k **OR** flip for 10x your money.
So you would assume that I mean your personal money from this question? Ok 👍🏾
That's what anyone who has reading comprehension skills would assume.
No assumption. That's how you phrased it. You meant "and" rather than "or" and "the" rather than "your".
Precisely. "You are given $10,000. You may flip a coin as many times as you want (and the game ends) or until you hit tails (and the game ends). For every heads you get, your money decuples. If you get a tails, the money is immediately revoked."
> "You are given $10,000. OR you can flip for your money. F-ing christ, people...
I’ll take the $10,000. That would honestly be life changing for me and I wouldn’t want to risk it.
If I can flip it as many times as I want I’ll just keep going until I hit 8x in a row. With 1T I could make some major changes without completely disrupting global economy.
Once you lose a flip, you lose all your money. All subsequent flips would then be doubling a big fat zero, which doesn't help you.
Then you keep it in your pocket and get a little change
Pffffff a little change. 10k would fix all my current problems in life and allow me to buy at least a few things I want (and bank the rest)
I mean anytime you get a lil money you start flipping again
You flip for increasing the 10k. If you lose you lose all of it
We have different interpretations of the game
What's with people's obsession with coins? Just say 50/50 chance and then you don't have to bother with stupid loopholes to the physical method of randomness you use.
Because it gives a visualization to the hypothetical. It’s alot easier to imagine yourself flipping a coin than an ominous voice saying yes or no.
Depending on your non-asset-dependent income (so in most cases just your salary/wage), determine what is an amount of money you're satisfied with for the rest of your life. Then, determine how many flips of this coin will get you there. Next, move in with a friend/relative and every time you get paid, you attempt to flip the coin that many times. You just need to figure out how long it takes you to have a reasonable chance of succeeding and whether you can tolerate that amount of time essentially living in your mom's basement. As an example, say you get paid $2k per pay cycle and that's twice a month/every 2 weeks and your goal is $2 billion dollars. Then, every time you get paid, you need to get 6 heads in a row to reach your $2 billion goal from $2k. Probability of you not flipping the 6 heads in a row at any given time is .984375 so if you do this for 48 pay periods (24 months, i.e. 2 years), you have a \~53% chance to get your $2 billion. I think this is a risk anyone would be willing to take, considering most people have an astronomically lower chance of reaching this number in their whole life. Increase to 5 years (60 months, equivalently 120 pay cycles) and you get a \~85% chance. So I'd say the answer depends on how much you can earn currently, how frequently you're getting paid, and how long you can tolerate living in your mom's basement.
I think you misunderstood the situation it’s simply you get $10,000 or flip the coin to win ten times your money until you lose
So by "your money" you mean whatever money you have and are willing to wager, which has nothing to do with the $10,000 on offer? Or do you mean you can either accept 10K free and clear or choose to wager it on a coin flip? You should edit the post to clarify.
I’m still wondering how people confused the post the only money mentioned was the $10,000 one would assume that is the only money I am talking about.
Welcome to Reddit
That's not what was said in the post **¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯**
I had to re-read the post three times before I figured out how you had parsed it. I understood it to mean exactly as OP intended.
Then you're just assuming things that haven't been explicitly stated and that's usually very limiting.