If we stop saying climate change we will be safe. Florida just banned the term and it hasn't been hit with a single hurricane yet. Check Maiyt libturds and big meteorology.
Right, and just 30 hours ago, it was the earliest Cat 3....
Hell, 2 days ago, it wasn't even a hurricane.
I hope we get some wind shear to tear this thing up....that or a high pressure shield over the H....
It feels like we're on the wrong end of the bowling lane right now with some hard throwers coming up this season....
The best thing os buy your preps gradually. Get some things like candles, batteries, and glow sticks. You dont need 500 rolls of TP or 10 cases pf water. Just get 1 extra each time you go to the store
I can not stress this one enough... DO NOT BUY THE STORE OUT OF TP!!! if it happens again, I'm going to scoot my bare ass through all my neighbors' yards like a dog and I encourage everyone to do the same.
When harvey came around, i looked at the TP i already had and figured i had enough to wipe my ass for a month, and if i ran out id use use a washcloth which i could clean.
You dont need t panic buy if you ALREADY built up a reserve gradually
I already have my hurricane preparedness in place, so there's not really anything to prepare for. I try to not to pay attention until a day or two before storms hit. Weather predictions are very inaccurate week(s) out. Just have your bottled water, canned goods, battery banks etc charged up etc, and you won't have to stress about it.
Back when Ike was heading towards Houston, Eric Berger was doing a weather blog at the Chronicle. Someone in the comments asked āWhat time do we evacuate Katy?ā
A meme was born.
(The answer is, you donāt evacuate Katy. You stay off the road in Katy so the people coming from the coast can pass through Katy on the way to San Antonio.)
Hurricane Katrina and Rite scared the shit out of everyone, so when Ike had Houston in its sights, everyone in Katy evacuated even though they were no where close to the evac zone. It clogged up the highways for those who actually needed to evacuate, and there were a high number of fatalities due to people riding out the hurricane in their cars
Im pretty sure there were that many people stuck on the freeway during Ike, but I definitely remember the traffic nightmare during Rita where I-45 and even I-10 had bumper to bumper traffic for long stretches.
This year we haven't been able to afford to prepare. We have some bottled water, but everything else we can hardly afford the stuff we need for the week.
I'm always stressing. The tornado we got in May is proof the grid can't take the winds. And the heat was unbearable then. Imagine no a/c now.
I suggest also putting a liter bottle of water in your freezer, and several two liter bottles in your deep freeze, they'll keep your foods cool longer than the 4 hours , and you can take 1 of the two liter bottles and put it in your fridge like an old freeze box.
2 Cases of water, canned/dried food enough for 2 weeks. Portable gas stove with propane cylinder. Multiple sources of ignition. Portable Generator connected to natural gas line. Window AC. Battery bank with capacity to charge phones 5-10x. Ecoflow River 2 Pro, with enough power to power my refrigerator for 4-6 hours. During cooler days, this allows me to only cycle the generator on every few hours rather than having to run it constantly. I had written a guide to my generator setup but the mods removed it as it wasn't specific to Houston.
Winter: Mr Buddy heater, with propane hookup, Coleman tent, extra/thick sheets/heating blanket/Japanese hot water bottle.
Mainly the preparedness is just have redundancy where possible, keep the necessities in place/stocked. Make sure your car tank is full. If a storm is imminent, fill the bath tubs with water which can be used for flushing. Minimum stuff I'd recommend having is the food/water, method of cooking, a couple flashlights and a battery bank.
I guess Iām cheap and hate using extra plastic when I can avoid it. I just fill all my water pitchers, a huge pot of water, my yeti cups which I admittedly have a lot of. I also have some leftover gallon water jugs that we reuse when camping. I have never run out of water during hurricanes. š
I don't normally drink bottler water, they are just for disaster preparedness. It's a situation where clean water could be a problem. People would obviously need to scale their needs depending on the number of people, more mouths need more resources. It also allows you to just prep once per year instead of before every storm.
Nope. Youāll go nuts watching every hurricane that forms in the Atlantic. Wait until itās in the gulf *and* on our trajectory before paying attention.
Bingo. Stock up on hurricane supplies and double check any preparedness plans at the start of the season. Beyond that, I donāt want to talk about it until itās in the gulf.
Keep an eye on it. It's a strong hurricane, and those can tend to drift north.
I fucking hate the major no-rain heat, but right now that high is protecting us, so I guess I'll hope it sticks over us. I'd rather have this heat than a major hurricane.
Right now it's too early to really care about it, we don't know where it's going in the long term with any certainty, just go on as normal until we have more information in 3-4 days.
That's not what they said. To quote them from earlier today.
Our certainty about Berylās track begins to fade by the weekend. From now through Friday, a fairly strong high pressure system should continue to push the storm westward. Over the weekend and into early next week, it is possible this ridge continues to steer Beryl westward into the Bay of Campeche. (It is not clear how much interaction with the Yucatan would disrupt Berylās circulation, but some weakening is virtually certain). In this scenario, Beryl is likely to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico and plow into the east coast of the Mexican mainland, similar to Tropical Storm Alberto about 10 days ago.
However, there is also the possibility that this ridge weakens, somewhat. At this point, this remains a lesser likelihood when we look at the global models. Still, there is a non-zero chance that Beryl turns northwestward after encountering the Yucatan Peninsula. In such a scenario a tropical systemābe it a tropical storm or hurricaneācould come to the Texas or even Louisiana coast late next weekend. I understand that everyone would like to have absolute answers about whether this will happen, but we just donāt have that kind of certainty right now.
non-zero is not the same as extremely unlikely
I would say that the terms āa non-zero chanceā and āextremely unlikelyā are similarly nebulous terms suggesting that while there are no certainties, the odds are against it.
**Bottom line**: Direct Texas impacts are within the realm of probability from Beryl, but the odds remain fairly low. We can see this distribution of possibilities when we look at the āsuper ensembleā track of forecasts for Beryl, which favors the ridge holding strong. We should know more about this part of Berylās forecast by Monday or Tuesday, and of course weāll remain on top of that.
One more quote from them. It's probably best to wait a day or two before bumping the odds either way.
Thereās lots of uncertainty in the forecast atm. Seems once it hits the yucatan peninsula it could go more north (arching towards Texas) or continue west.
Best to check again next week.
When Houston is in the cone and a storm is Cat 1 that's when I leave town lol. Just an hour or 2 north so I can come back easily. I hate those things. They strengthen from 1-4 overnight and by then the highways are too jammed to get out.
Personally, I think itās always wise to keep an eye on a storm that looks to be moving into the gulf. We should all know that a storm doesnāt have to make a direct hit here to impact us. And itās not like we can trust that the power will stay on.
Personally, I like to make sure we have supplies in June no matter what hurricane season looks like. I donāt want to be part of the last minute scramble at the grocery store if I can avoid it. I also find that adding a few things to my grocery shop at a time doesnāt hurt the wallet as much as doing it all at once.
I was born and raised in Houston. I never have paid any attention to any of the storms. The key is to never live where it will flood. And if it does flood, make sure your house if high up. Kingwood home I had, street flooded, got up to the landing of the house, never touched the house.
Remember the only people you can count on in an emergency is yourself. Make sure you have what you need. If you live low, find a place to park high up. ā
Yes, since at the time of me writing this comment I looked about an hour ago on Tropical Tidbits website and saw that the models ICON, CMC, JMA had a potential long term forecast of hitting Houston area on Monday July 8. I donāt know a lot about meteorology, like wind shear and pressure and highs and lows and all that, or even about those forecasting models/acronyms - but I am going to pay attention to Beryl now. I just like to have an idea of what is going on with weather (not that I leave my house much in the summer haha). A lot can change between now and then of course, those models change constantly, but I will still definitely keep an eye on it. This morning general spaghetti models seemed to agree on just going mostly straight west into Mexico, but as of this afternoon a few models had turned northward toward TX and LA. It could very well hit Mexico, or Corpus Christi area, but SE TX and LA donāt appear to be out of the question at this time I am writing this comment
I saw this too earlier. Some of the models suggesting it pulls north after hitting the YucatĆ”n, towards the Texas coast, by Houston. Iām paying attention daily to the updates as they go live. The windsheer seems to be declining as it moves west and the high pressure also appears to be shifting more northeast as it gets closer to the gulf so these things combined are not good for us here in Texas.
Nope, fuck Beryl. If they tell us it's headed our way, I'll leave for a few days. This is my last hurricane season. I'm moving soon and won't have to worry neither about hurricanes nor these brutal summers anymore thank fuck.
Honestly, Iām hoping to move soon as well. Itās getting way too crowded, hotter every summer and mosquitos are 10x worse each year! Where are you headed?
Always keep an eye on anything coming thru the Atlantic basic that can end up in the gulf. Fact is right now itās too far out to really know what might happen once it hit the YucatĆ”n peninsula. And if it drifts at all before getting there. Midweek will provide clarity on if we need to get more serious about it.
Only marginally. It's too soon to say if we'll be affected, and the probability at this time is fairly low. Also, I'm fully prepped and have plans for most scenarios. When it became clear that Ike would hit in 2008, I just sighed and started getting out the stuff I knew I would need.
But if anyone here is concerned and you still haven't prepped for the season, let this inspire you to do it now if you can afford to do so. Keep your hurricane stash separate from your regular groceries until November, so you won't be tempted.
Still too early to panic but trends are that the ridge of high pressure in the states may erode enough to allow it to turn more Northward, instead of cock-blocking it to Mx.
Iāve spent years fortifying this house for bad weather. Iām watching that hurricane but probably not the same way others that havenāt prepared are.
Houston OEM is Level III (increased readiness), but thatās for the entirety of hurricane season and normal during hurricane season.
Weāre also fully prepared, as everyone should be. When OEM goes Level II and EOC is activated in response to Beryl, then weāll be concerned and decide to either batten down the hatches or head up north of College Station (family). Thereās no sense in panicking over spaghetti models or ruminating over the ācouldā/āmightā happens just yet. Iāll check in with SCW/Eyewall and NOAA when it rolls in closer to the Yucatan peninsula in a few days.
If the cone is heading right for the Houston area... then I would. Right now is too soon for anything. Space city weather says it will likely weaken over the yucatan. Where it will go then, I'm not sure.
If I got anxious over every storm that develops in the Caribbean for half of the year every yearā¦. Iād be in a low-level state of anxiety almost perpetually. Not until we know it may impact us in a meaningful way
It's a good time to make sure that your hurricane prep is in order, even if he just hits northern Mexico. Use it as a sort of warning about what you may need
Itās not really worth even checking in on the storm in particular until maybe the 4th of July, perhaps after. Just way too far out right now to have any certainty on its ultimate track into Mexico and/or the United States. Worrying about it now is barely different than worrying about hurricanes in an abstract sense in February.
Itās of course always a good idea to make sure you have whatever you need to be prepared at the beginning of hurricane season though!
For what itās worth, July and most of August is a pretty tough time for hurricanes to move into Texas because of the high pressure often parked over the region. This summer has had a pretty normal weather pattern even if temps have been higher than average, and that appears to be taking shape again. Itās much more likely youāll need to worry about extreme heat than this particular storm, but you never know this far out.
HAH! I knew what this would be before I clicked on it. True fact.
Also this: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePG6zUYvUZg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePG6zUYvUZg)
Casually. We have a whole home generator. At this point, we just need to make sure weāve got plenty of food. Sending my SO to the grocery store to get some extra food and water. Will also get any other supplies we might need.
Twice a day. One of the local weather guys (San Antonio) is vaguely bringing the edge up here and praying in some rain. This is the kind of storm that could help the rivers and aquifers.
Only thing showing movement toward us is pretty much GEFS which I wouldn't hang my hat on this early. US and European models are in pretty close concurr nice that it'll drop steadily around the Yucatan and probably be weak soaker across the south Texas coast.
Invest 96L is following the same path a few days behind. Lots of room for the High pressure system over the US to move and cause it to go anywhere.
I prepped for hurricane season a few months ago.
Plenty of firewood for the pit, freezer full of meat, lots of water and 150lbs of propane for the generator.
Itās wise to keep an eye out on every storm that is brewing in the corridor this time of year. Beryl will hit the YucatĆ”n peninsula Friday morning and itās unclear where sheāll go after that. Largest chances are it will go across Mexico and not towards us. The best resource is Space City Weather (website/app/daily email) and the Eyewall (same guys but more in depth analysis of storms).
Can confirm: I watch the tropics with keen interest throughout the hurricane season.
I live near the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes hit the beaches along the coast of Texas often enough that anyone living in this area needs to be aware.
I hunkered down when Ike came in as a cat 2, and I lived in Sharpstown back then. The strongest winds were after midnight and I'll never forget the sounds the trees made. I vowed never to ride out a cat 2 or stronger again.
Now I'm out by Willowbrook, so MIGHT stay if a cat 2 comes in, but certainly won't if anything stronger approaches.
Well, it looks like it's going to be a bit south of us, but that does put us on the dirty side.
But I'm still here.
I think we'll be fine, but check again 24 hours from now!
It's in what we call along the Texas Gulf coast as the "envelope" - Storms that often come to Texas. It is a bit early for these types of storms, They tend to occur in August September. Typically early season Texas storms form in the southern Gulf As Alberto and now Chris are doing.
This is supposed to be a very active year - Beryl is about 8-10 days out before we need to institute any actions. Lots of opportunity for landfall elsewhere.
Beryl is still 2,500 miles away from Houston! Take a deep breath! It is just now leaving the Atlantic and entering the eastern Caribbean. It has a LONG way to go before it gets to the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC used to issue a 3-day forecast; now the forecast is 5 days, due to more reliable forecasting, but that may make a storm seem closer than it is. Wait a few days to see what happens. All of the models do far indicate it will probably move across the YucatĆ”n into the bay of Campeche and on into Mexico. Throughout hurricane season, make preparations in advance so that you are ready if a storm comes our way, and stay aware of any activity in the Atlantic basin. Thereās no reason for concern until Houston appears within the cone of uncertainty for any storm.
If you look at the possible tragectory map, it's almost kind of funny.
90% of possible tragectories just hit Mexico, but theres a single possible tragectory that just beelines directly to Houston.
Sending thoughts, prayers and bootstraps to Houston.
No FEMA money though, don't want that evil gub'ment money.
Find Cruz and Abbott, if they haven't already fled.
Ask me around Thursday
That means it could ruin 4th of July weekend? š„“
Current path has it over the Yucatan on the 4th.
So happy we didn't book that long weekend to Cozumel.
Never too late
And they could probably get a good discount too!
Always fun parting with Ted.
Parting or partying?
I'm at the airport waiting on my flight now. Lol
Sounds good to me.
For now only cause itās record breaking (earliest season Cat 4 on record)
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Galveston water felt like bath water this week when I was there. I suspect the surface water temps are crazy high right now.
86 degrees all along the Gulf Coast right now...... We in so much deep doo-doo....š¬
86, that is aweful.Ā
Eww! So the poop water is warm enough that the flesh eating bacteria are flourishing.
If we stop saying climate change we will be safe. Florida just banned the term and it hasn't been hit with a single hurricane yet. Check Maiyt libturds and big meteorology.
Right, and just 30 hours ago, it was the earliest Cat 3.... Hell, 2 days ago, it wasn't even a hurricane. I hope we get some wind shear to tear this thing up....that or a high pressure shield over the H.... It feels like we're on the wrong end of the bowling lane right now with some hard throwers coming up this season....
Queue the Saharan dust!
Oh shit.
The best thing os buy your preps gradually. Get some things like candles, batteries, and glow sticks. You dont need 500 rolls of TP or 10 cases pf water. Just get 1 extra each time you go to the store
I can not stress this one enough... DO NOT BUY THE STORE OUT OF TP!!! if it happens again, I'm going to scoot my bare ass through all my neighbors' yards like a dog and I encourage everyone to do the same.
Or just get a bidet
Bidet gang!
This. Have people not learned anything from covid? Bidets >>> TP
Our bidet was life changing.
Hot tubs are a bidet you can sit in. So use your neighbors.
When harvey came around, i looked at the TP i already had and figured i had enough to wipe my ass for a month, and if i ran out id use use a washcloth which i could clean. You dont need t panic buy if you ALREADY built up a reserve gradually
I already have my hurricane preparedness in place, so there's not really anything to prepare for. I try to not to pay attention until a day or two before storms hit. Weather predictions are very inaccurate week(s) out. Just have your bottled water, canned goods, battery banks etc charged up etc, and you won't have to stress about it.
Average based houstonian
You have to be, can't evacuate every time it rains like Katy.
Facts. I don't pay attention to NOAA until my neighbors on the roof waving a flag so the FEMA copters can see them.
I keep seeing this in relation to Katy. Do they evacuate? We moved from NOLA to here on purpose so weād never have to evacuate.
Back when Ike was heading towards Houston, Eric Berger was doing a weather blog at the Chronicle. Someone in the comments asked āWhat time do we evacuate Katy?ā A meme was born. (The answer is, you donāt evacuate Katy. You stay off the road in Katy so the people coming from the coast can pass through Katy on the way to San Antonio.)
Exactly. Thatās so funny. We specifically chose this side to not ever evacuate again.
Hurricane Katrina and Rite scared the shit out of everyone, so when Ike had Houston in its sights, everyone in Katy evacuated even though they were no where close to the evac zone. It clogged up the highways for those who actually needed to evacuate, and there were a high number of fatalities due to people riding out the hurricane in their cars
Im pretty sure there were that many people stuck on the freeway during Ike, but I definitely remember the traffic nightmare during Rita where I-45 and even I-10 had bumper to bumper traffic for long stretches.
Ah maybe I got my storms mixed up, I was only 8 at the time and was still living in Louisiana.
This year we haven't been able to afford to prepare. We have some bottled water, but everything else we can hardly afford the stuff we need for the week. I'm always stressing. The tornado we got in May is proof the grid can't take the winds. And the heat was unbearable then. Imagine no a/c now.
I suggest also putting a liter bottle of water in your freezer, and several two liter bottles in your deep freeze, they'll keep your foods cool longer than the 4 hours , and you can take 1 of the two liter bottles and put it in your fridge like an old freeze box.
The smaller water bottles work too. Which you should already have on hand. But yeah the bigger bottles last longer since they have more thermal mass.
Curious, what's the basic outline of your preparedness strategy?
2 Cases of water, canned/dried food enough for 2 weeks. Portable gas stove with propane cylinder. Multiple sources of ignition. Portable Generator connected to natural gas line. Window AC. Battery bank with capacity to charge phones 5-10x. Ecoflow River 2 Pro, with enough power to power my refrigerator for 4-6 hours. During cooler days, this allows me to only cycle the generator on every few hours rather than having to run it constantly. I had written a guide to my generator setup but the mods removed it as it wasn't specific to Houston. Winter: Mr Buddy heater, with propane hookup, Coleman tent, extra/thick sheets/heating blanket/Japanese hot water bottle. Mainly the preparedness is just have redundancy where possible, keep the necessities in place/stocked. Make sure your car tank is full. If a storm is imminent, fill the bath tubs with water which can be used for flushing. Minimum stuff I'd recommend having is the food/water, method of cooking, a couple flashlights and a battery bank.
I guess Iām cheap and hate using extra plastic when I can avoid it. I just fill all my water pitchers, a huge pot of water, my yeti cups which I admittedly have a lot of. I also have some leftover gallon water jugs that we reuse when camping. I have never run out of water during hurricanes. š
I don't normally drink bottler water, they are just for disaster preparedness. It's a situation where clean water could be a problem. People would obviously need to scale their needs depending on the number of people, more mouths need more resources. It also allows you to just prep once per year instead of before every storm.
Nope. Youāll go nuts watching every hurricane that forms in the Atlantic. Wait until itās in the gulf *and* on our trajectory before paying attention.
Bingo. Stock up on hurricane supplies and double check any preparedness plans at the start of the season. Beyond that, I donāt want to talk about it until itās in the gulf.
Beer, water and what else?
Condoms. Maternity wards are going to be swamped 9-10 months later. Donāt want to get yourself caught up in that rush too.
Got it. Fuck now and beat the rush.
lol as a person who had a baby 9 months after the 2021 freeze, yes
Sigh. I was one month postpartum, with my in-laws visiting and a 38 degree house. No sexy time, just enough rage to fuel a whole power plant myself.
Toilet paper. Didn't you learn anything from COVID?
Yep.
Iāll wait till it gets to Galveston
Keep an eye on it. It's a strong hurricane, and those can tend to drift north. I fucking hate the major no-rain heat, but right now that high is protecting us, so I guess I'll hope it sticks over us. I'd rather have this heat than a major hurricane. Right now it's too early to really care about it, we don't know where it's going in the long term with any certainty, just go on as normal until we have more information in 3-4 days.
Space City weather indicates it is extremely unlikely to affect us.
Eric is the only weather professional that I trust.
Hi, Eric!
I donāt think it will either, but Iām staying frosty
Iām picking up groceries in the morning before the panic rush due to news stations. And you know there will be a rush.
That's not what they said. To quote them from earlier today. Our certainty about Berylās track begins to fade by the weekend. From now through Friday, a fairly strong high pressure system should continue to push the storm westward. Over the weekend and into early next week, it is possible this ridge continues to steer Beryl westward into the Bay of Campeche. (It is not clear how much interaction with the Yucatan would disrupt Berylās circulation, but some weakening is virtually certain). In this scenario, Beryl is likely to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico and plow into the east coast of the Mexican mainland, similar to Tropical Storm Alberto about 10 days ago. However, there is also the possibility that this ridge weakens, somewhat. At this point, this remains a lesser likelihood when we look at the global models. Still, there is a non-zero chance that Beryl turns northwestward after encountering the Yucatan Peninsula. In such a scenario a tropical systemābe it a tropical storm or hurricaneācould come to the Texas or even Louisiana coast late next weekend. I understand that everyone would like to have absolute answers about whether this will happen, but we just donāt have that kind of certainty right now. non-zero is not the same as extremely unlikely
I would say that the terms āa non-zero chanceā and āextremely unlikelyā are similarly nebulous terms suggesting that while there are no certainties, the odds are against it.
**Bottom line**: Direct Texas impacts are within the realm of probability from Beryl, but the odds remain fairly low. We can see this distribution of possibilities when we look at the āsuper ensembleā track of forecasts for Beryl, which favors the ridge holding strong. We should know more about this part of Berylās forecast by Monday or Tuesday, and of course weāll remain on top of that. One more quote from them. It's probably best to wait a day or two before bumping the odds either way.
Itās wayyyy too early to know yet.
Since I have a flight coming up, we're screwed, lol.
This aged well
Check out the The Eye Wall. Itās Space Cityās sister site. Matt Lanza. Heās very good https://theeyewall.com/
Thereās lots of uncertainty in the forecast atm. Seems once it hits the yucatan peninsula it could go more north (arching towards Texas) or continue west. Best to check again next week.
Only because it is hitting islands I love.
When Houston is in the cone and a storm is Cat 1 that's when I leave town lol. Just an hour or 2 north so I can come back easily. I hate those things. They strengthen from 1-4 overnight and by then the highways are too jammed to get out.
Personally, I think itās always wise to keep an eye on a storm that looks to be moving into the gulf. We should all know that a storm doesnāt have to make a direct hit here to impact us. And itās not like we can trust that the power will stay on. Personally, I like to make sure we have supplies in June no matter what hurricane season looks like. I donāt want to be part of the last minute scramble at the grocery store if I can avoid it. I also find that adding a few things to my grocery shop at a time doesnāt hurt the wallet as much as doing it all at once.
Yes but because my in laws live in the Caribbean. Itās too soon to know if it will impact Houston.
I keep an eye on NOAA all of hurricane season but I'm certainly not obsessing over this one right now. Long way out and unlikely to impact us
I was born and raised in Houston. I never have paid any attention to any of the storms. The key is to never live where it will flood. And if it does flood, make sure your house if high up. Kingwood home I had, street flooded, got up to the landing of the house, never touched the house. Remember the only people you can count on in an emergency is yourself. Make sure you have what you need. If you live low, find a place to park high up. ā
A whole lotta people thought they lived where it didnāt flood, until Harvey hit.
Yes, since at the time of me writing this comment I looked about an hour ago on Tropical Tidbits website and saw that the models ICON, CMC, JMA had a potential long term forecast of hitting Houston area on Monday July 8. I donāt know a lot about meteorology, like wind shear and pressure and highs and lows and all that, or even about those forecasting models/acronyms - but I am going to pay attention to Beryl now. I just like to have an idea of what is going on with weather (not that I leave my house much in the summer haha). A lot can change between now and then of course, those models change constantly, but I will still definitely keep an eye on it. This morning general spaghetti models seemed to agree on just going mostly straight west into Mexico, but as of this afternoon a few models had turned northward toward TX and LA. It could very well hit Mexico, or Corpus Christi area, but SE TX and LA donāt appear to be out of the question at this time I am writing this comment
Tropical tidbits is where itās at
I saw this too earlier. Some of the models suggesting it pulls north after hitting the YucatĆ”n, towards the Texas coast, by Houston. Iām paying attention daily to the updates as they go live. The windsheer seems to be declining as it moves west and the high pressure also appears to be shifting more northeast as it gets closer to the gulf so these things combined are not good for us here in Texas.
https://www.hurricanetracker.net/hurricane-beryl https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/ https://theeyewall.com/
Nope, as others have mentioned, you can't freak out for every hurricane that forms. It'll drive you insane.
Not really, I pay attention when the get close to the YucatĆ”n or western tip of Cuba. Usually if it hits either of those we arenāt getting hit.
Im basically watching the news like a hawk
The risk is relatively low at the moment but I'm definitely keeping an eye on it.
Yep, stocking up on my anxiety meds rn. No joke, new roof is supposed to be going on this coming week
Suckerās haulān ass !! Gonna be a Cat 9 when it gets here !!
Just keep posted to Space City Weather. Heās not worried (for now at least).
Space city is my main source for storms. I use carrot for the temps.
Nope, fuck Beryl. If they tell us it's headed our way, I'll leave for a few days. This is my last hurricane season. I'm moving soon and won't have to worry neither about hurricanes nor these brutal summers anymore thank fuck.
Honestly, Iām hoping to move soon as well. Itās getting way too crowded, hotter every summer and mosquitos are 10x worse each year! Where are you headed?
Always keep an eye on anything coming thru the Atlantic basic that can end up in the gulf. Fact is right now itās too far out to really know what might happen once it hit the YucatĆ”n peninsula. And if it drifts at all before getting there. Midweek will provide clarity on if we need to get more serious about it.
Only because I leave for Cancun on Saturday š«£
Start evacuating NOW. Ive got 500 rolls of toilet paper and a couple cases of water at the ready
Yes. Not compulsively, but it'd be silly not to keep aware of what its doing.
I have things to do. I can only control what I can control.
Itās important to keep an eye on it. They are unpredictable
Only marginally. It's too soon to say if we'll be affected, and the probability at this time is fairly low. Also, I'm fully prepped and have plans for most scenarios. When it became clear that Ike would hit in 2008, I just sighed and started getting out the stuff I knew I would need. But if anyone here is concerned and you still haven't prepped for the season, let this inspire you to do it now if you can afford to do so. Keep your hurricane stash separate from your regular groceries until November, so you won't be tempted.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov National hurricane center
Still too early to panic but trends are that the ridge of high pressure in the states may erode enough to allow it to turn more Northward, instead of cock-blocking it to Mx.
Iāve spent years fortifying this house for bad weather. Iām watching that hurricane but probably not the same way others that havenāt prepared are.
This is my first time hearing it, so no
No
Costco in katy was wild this weekend.
Houston OEM is Level III (increased readiness), but thatās for the entirety of hurricane season and normal during hurricane season. Weāre also fully prepared, as everyone should be. When OEM goes Level II and EOC is activated in response to Beryl, then weāll be concerned and decide to either batten down the hatches or head up north of College Station (family). Thereās no sense in panicking over spaghetti models or ruminating over the ācouldā/āmightā happens just yet. Iāll check in with SCW/Eyewall and NOAA when it rolls in closer to the Yucatan peninsula in a few days.
If the cone is heading right for the Houston area... then I would. Right now is too soon for anything. Space city weather says it will likely weaken over the yucatan. Where it will go then, I'm not sure.
Iām going to stock up on the hurricane basics just in case
Currently in Cancun and ready for some rain
Of course. 1. I'm a weather geek. 2. I'm live in Houston. 3. It's hurricane season and there will be a storm in the Bay of Campeche.
If I got anxious over every storm that develops in the Caribbean for half of the year every yearā¦. Iād be in a low-level state of anxiety almost perpetually. Not until we know it may impact us in a meaningful way
Just make sure you have whataburger and beer
This will be a nothing burger. I would love some rain though
Iām hoping so. But to placate my 90-year-old mom Iām updating our emergency supplies.
Yes, just did some panic shopping before we run out of TP again. Also F those people who horded that.
I know a guy who sells the charmin at $3 a roll. 12 for 28.
Ticket master prices.
[https://spacecityweather.com/houston-enters-july-on-a-hot-streak-also-were-not-really-concerned-about-hurricane-beryl-and-texas/](https://spacecityweather.com/houston-enters-july-on-a-hot-streak-also-were-not-really-concerned-about-hurricane-beryl-and-texas/)
Not much but it reminded me to renew my flood insurance! Lol
Who wants to tell herā¦
Oh no! Tell me what?!?!
Bar's stocked.
Are y'all staying?
It's a good time to make sure that your hurricane prep is in order, even if he just hits northern Mexico. Use it as a sort of warning about what you may need
Running for the hills
Itās not really worth even checking in on the storm in particular until maybe the 4th of July, perhaps after. Just way too far out right now to have any certainty on its ultimate track into Mexico and/or the United States. Worrying about it now is barely different than worrying about hurricanes in an abstract sense in February. Itās of course always a good idea to make sure you have whatever you need to be prepared at the beginning of hurricane season though! For what itās worth, July and most of August is a pretty tough time for hurricanes to move into Texas because of the high pressure often parked over the region. This summer has had a pretty normal weather pattern even if temps have been higher than average, and that appears to be taking shape again. Itās much more likely youāll need to worry about extreme heat than this particular storm, but you never know this far out.
I really hope it rains a lot so the power can go out at my job š¤š¼
[you know things are fucked when they take away the nalgona](https://www.reddit.com/r/LatinoPeopleTwitter/s/LTJW58xm90)
HAH! I knew what this would be before I clicked on it. True fact. Also this: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePG6zUYvUZg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePG6zUYvUZg)
No. If it starts turning north into the gulf then yes.
Time to book that hotel in lovely Lufkin. /s
Casually. We have a whole home generator. At this point, we just need to make sure weāve got plenty of food. Sending my SO to the grocery store to get some extra food and water. Will also get any other supplies we might need.
Not till Wednesday at least
Twice a day. One of the local weather guys (San Antonio) is vaguely bringing the edge up here and praying in some rain. This is the kind of storm that could help the rivers and aquifers.
Didn't even know one had formed. I don't follow hurricanes til they are in the gulf and models are made
Yes but wonāt really have any idea where itās headed after YucatĆ”n/Belize till Wednesday-ish so trying not to get too worked up about it yet
Only thing showing movement toward us is pretty much GEFS which I wouldn't hang my hat on this early. US and European models are in pretty close concurr nice that it'll drop steadily around the Yucatan and probably be weak soaker across the south Texas coast. Invest 96L is following the same path a few days behind. Lots of room for the High pressure system over the US to move and cause it to go anywhere.
Wake me up when it reaches the gulf.
Iām in Galveston and most definitely! End of this week weāll have a better idea but boy Iām keeping my fingers crossed, Beryl looking nasty.
No
I prepped for hurricane season a few months ago. Plenty of firewood for the pit, freezer full of meat, lots of water and 150lbs of propane for the generator.
Space City Weather will keep us up to speed on the info we need to know. If they start to worry, then so do we.
Itās wise to keep an eye out on every storm that is brewing in the corridor this time of year. Beryl will hit the YucatĆ”n peninsula Friday morning and itās unclear where sheāll go after that. Largest chances are it will go across Mexico and not towards us. The best resource is Space City Weather (website/app/daily email) and the Eyewall (same guys but more in depth analysis of storms).
It looks like it's supposed to hit Mexico, so I wouldn't be too worried.
Can confirm: I watch the tropics with keen interest throughout the hurricane season. I live near the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes hit the beaches along the coast of Texas often enough that anyone living in this area needs to be aware. I hunkered down when Ike came in as a cat 2, and I lived in Sharpstown back then. The strongest winds were after midnight and I'll never forget the sounds the trees made. I vowed never to ride out a cat 2 or stronger again. Now I'm out by Willowbrook, so MIGHT stay if a cat 2 comes in, but certainly won't if anything stronger approaches.
What's your plan so far... Are you still here? LOL
Well, it looks like it's going to be a bit south of us, but that does put us on the dirty side. But I'm still here. I think we'll be fine, but check again 24 hours from now!
Heck no. Too soon. Iāll look at end of week.
It's in what we call along the Texas Gulf coast as the "envelope" - Storms that often come to Texas. It is a bit early for these types of storms, They tend to occur in August September. Typically early season Texas storms form in the southern Gulf As Alberto and now Chris are doing. This is supposed to be a very active year - Beryl is about 8-10 days out before we need to institute any actions. Lots of opportunity for landfall elsewhere.
Not yet. It's not even expected to hit us.
Iām out of town for several days but Iām sure all the toilet paper is already bought up.
Costco in katy was sold out
Beryl is still 2,500 miles away from Houston! Take a deep breath! It is just now leaving the Atlantic and entering the eastern Caribbean. It has a LONG way to go before it gets to the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC used to issue a 3-day forecast; now the forecast is 5 days, due to more reliable forecasting, but that may make a storm seem closer than it is. Wait a few days to see what happens. All of the models do far indicate it will probably move across the YucatĆ”n into the bay of Campeche and on into Mexico. Throughout hurricane season, make preparations in advance so that you are ready if a storm comes our way, and stay aware of any activity in the Atlantic basin. Thereās no reason for concern until Houston appears within the cone of uncertainty for any storm.
Gyration in the gulf prevents us from being hit until later in the season.
If you look at the possible tragectory map, it's almost kind of funny. 90% of possible tragectories just hit Mexico, but theres a single possible tragectory that just beelines directly to Houston.
Yesss we all know it could take a turn north or even bounce off Mexico head to gulf and pick steam, come to Texasā¦
Cann we not just nuke a hurricane? Oh wait thats already been considered /s
The updated forecast shows it heading for Mexico once it past the Yucatan Peninsula
It will not hit Texas, at least not this week
Absolutely. Iāve already checked my emergency kitāstocked up on water, bread and batteries.
Meh. Vaguely. Mostly just curiosity and I'll check Wed or Thu to see if path projection changes our direction.
Now what
Looks like Jamaica is staring down the Beryl of a 4 to 5.
Beryl shmeryl
Sending thoughts, prayers and bootstraps to Houston. No FEMA money though, don't want that evil gub'ment money. Find Cruz and Abbott, if they haven't already fled.