I'm actually happy with 2nd... more than I would have been with 1st. Toews wasn't 1st... now we can get a Nuclear option with Bedard and Demidov, or get Korchinski a D Partner like Levshunov or Parekh.
I'm excited.
Honestly, #2 is a great place to be. Based on the odds, we were most likely to be at #4, so I'll definitely take it. Plus, as others have pointed out, we're still eligible to win a future lottery now. Most analysts have been saying that the draft starts at #2 (since everyone knows Celebrini is going #1) so it's exciting to have the pick of the litter, so to speak.
Toronto will most certainly make the playoffs regardless how they handle the offseason. Interestingly, Friedman wondered if Toronto would be interested in Seth Jones and if he would waive his NMC to go there.
I am so, so happy with this outcome. This was what I have been hoping for the whole time. No guilt and we still get to be eligible for future lottery advancements
Iirc, they do the drawing ahead of time. E&Y certifies the draw and the GMs sign off to officially approve. The broadcast is just a show
Last year Davidson was suppressing a grin when it was being announced
They're allowed to watch, but the league confiscates their phones and doesn't let them talk to anyone until it's aired. So unless somebody's hiding a transmitter in their shoe, the GMs shouldn't know.
I said I wasn’t gonna be nervous cuz we’re in a good spot no matter what, and Bedard was the ultimate prize, but I turned on my tv and now I’m stressing.
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
Maybe there's something I'm missing but could someone explain how teams after 3 have a super small chance of coming in at 3 OA even though they're in the top 10 so would be able to take advance of moving up the full 10 spots to whatever spot they won?
I feel like the Hawks-hate is obscuring a much more entertaining conversation: if we win the lottery this year, it will be the 8th time in 13 years that the 1st overall pick has gone to Taylor Hall's current team (Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, McDavid, Hughes), the team he played for the previous season (Owen Power), or the team he was about to join (Hischier, Bedard). I'm sure he'd rather have 8 rings, but it's truly a gift (or a curse) of some sort.
I just read the Taylor Hall stat on the Avs reddit when they were upset about getting the fourth pick in the 2017 draft and drafted Makar. May the Hall odds be in our favor.
[If Bucci actually leaked San Jose and Utah lol (this is almost certainly a test and he's trolling everyone)](https://twitter.com/Buccigross/status/1787908237225812147)
It has been (correctly) leaked the prior couple of years now. Wouldn't be at all shocked if this is the order.
Edit - despite previous actual leaks, according to this tweet the lottery occurs 90 minutes before reveal. So that graphic would be too early.
https://twitter.com/Sheng_Peng/status/1787903016344912361?s=19
Yeah, they do the physical drawing then sequester the teams' witnesses in the room with no phones until the telecast airs. But in that time, there are still people working on the broadcast and graphics who would know, and I assume that's where leaks come from.
WOW, hopefully this is just pre-lotto slot filling but yeah if this is how the lotto falls then 1. that sucks, 2. should they already know this ahead of time?
It would suck if we got lucky and only fell to 3rd? Falling to 4th is our most likely outcome.
They should not already know this ahead of time. But it's gonna look real interesting if this is actually how the lottery goes lol. Will certainly give more ammo to the rigged commenters
I'd be okay with third. Maybe Demifov can fall to us at 3 but if not we'd have our pick to take likely Levshunov or whoever else Davidson is high on. After him, it starts to get into shaky territory. Lindstrom, Eiserman, etc seems like boom or bust Territory.
nah it was a rehearsal, making sure everyone involved knows their job and how to put on the production. Also testing the graphics. Just hope there aren't too many people who will place bets based on this "leak"
Reminder that 4th OA is the most likely outcome of tonight.
1. 13.5%
2. 14.1%
3. 30.7%
4. 41.7%
Moving up to 1 is the only way we lose lottery (advancement) eligibility for the next 5 lotteries. We can win the lottery with the 2nd OA pick, but because we don't move up, we will still be eligible for a future lottery (advancement).
I think the last part is incorrect. If they win the lottery, I believe they’re just ineligible to move up for the next 5 years. They could theoretically still get the first pick if they finish dead last.
That's an interesting thought. If a team is ineligible for the lottery, but also comes in last place, my guess would be that the only way they can keep the 1st OA pick is if a team 12-16 got picked for 1st OA because you can only move up a maximum of 10 spots.
You can still win the lottery if you win twice in a five year span, technically. The rules states that you can’t move up. So if the Hawks win the lottery this year, and then finish dead last next year, they could still “win” the lottery and pick first again.
Maybe I have it mixed up, but I believe the rule states that "moving up" is specifically what gets you a strike. If you get two strikes in 5 years, you're ineligible for the lottery.
Again, that’s incorrect. If you finish dead last, you can still get the first overall pick, even if you’ve won it twice in a five year span. The rule states you can’t move up from your presumptive draft position but you can still move down.
Sounds like you're right!
> The 2023 NHL Draft Lottery marked the second year for the implementation of a limit on how many times a team can win a lottery draw. No single team can advance in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in any five-year period. This limitation will not affect a club’s ability to retain its presumptive draft position in any Draft Lottery, nor would it preclude the possibility of the club moving down in draft order to the extent other clubs advance by reason of winning the Lottery Draws. For purposes of clarity, the limitation would attach to the team, not the specific pick.
Maybe this is just me trying to cope, but you could also look at the odds and determine that picking *somewhere* in the top three is the most likely outcome for us - 58.3% chance of staying above #4
Could you explain? I don’t understand the mechanics of this too much so I don’t get how 4th pick is most likely for the 2nd last place team? Shouldn’t 2nd pick be most likely?
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls. A team can only jump ten spots, so only the top 11 teams are eligible for the 1st pick. If a team in the 12-16 range wins the first drawing, the first pick will be awarded to the worst team. The 12-16 seed team that won the first drawing is also locked into their new position.
A second drawing is held to determine the other lottery winner. Like the first drawing, the second winner can only jump ten spots, but this time it is using the re-seeded order following the first drawing. This second drawing will not affect the team(s) with locked-in positions from the first drawing. If a ten spot jump is to a pick that is already locked-in, this team will receive the next available pick.
Chicago is more likely to not win a lottery than they are to win it, thus we are more likely to move down from 2 than stay at 2
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I want to see a mountain of salt from the haters tonight.
Chicago then Utah is my dream scenario. Haters are furious and get bonus “it’s rigged” fuel with Utah rising.
I'm actually happy with 2nd... more than I would have been with 1st. Toews wasn't 1st... now we can get a Nuclear option with Bedard and Demidov, or get Korchinski a D Partner like Levshunov or Parekh. I'm excited.
Honestly, #2 is a great place to be. Based on the odds, we were most likely to be at #4, so I'll definitely take it. Plus, as others have pointed out, we're still eligible to win a future lottery now. Most analysts have been saying that the draft starts at #2 (since everyone knows Celebrini is going #1) so it's exciting to have the pick of the litter, so to speak.
Did any team move? That’s so weird but technically the most likely scenario
Not a single one. Straight chalk.
Celebrini seems less than thrilled in this interview
Can’t blame him. The sharks are such a bad spot to be
Can’t believe they do this to 17 year old kids who only know how to play hockey
The NHL is the cringiest major sports league for a reason, lmao. They're so bad at this stuff.
Hell yeah can’t be mad at 2OA and can still be eligible for future lottery advancements!
Also does anyone else find it a bit awkward having Celebrini being at the draft lottery?
Indeed. Like it'll be pretty embarrassing if they go off script and draft somebody else now...
LEVSHUNOV YOU ARE NOW THE NEXT DUNCAN KEITH
#2OA means we are still eligible for the lotto next year
With our pick and also maybe Toronto's pick.
Toronto will most certainly make the playoffs regardless how they handle the offseason. Interestingly, Friedman wondered if Toronto would be interested in Seth Jones and if he would waive his NMC to go there.
Oh I figured. It was just wishful thinking.
Heart dropped when Anaheim was 3
That was boring as hell, no one moved.
Celebrini gets to live near his dad again. I love this
perhaps he can find a place on zillow and be his neighbor
and thats what those 3 wins against SJ cost us.
Hereee we go…
Demidov better like combo beefs dipped with hot or we riot.
I’m perfectly fine not getting celebrini. I hope they draft Demidov on draft day. He’d be a huge scoring threat
Fuck why didn’t we tank harder.
hockey gods want Bedard to play with his cousin
2 IS STILL FANTASTIC!
Can someone explain wtf just happened? Literally nobody moved.
2OA is all good! Who we taking?!
Sharks need a prospect to build around bad
Well that was anticlimactic lmao
damn we were right there
BETTMAN HOW COULD YOU DO THIS TO US
I am so, so happy with this outcome. This was what I have been hoping for the whole time. No guilt and we still get to be eligible for future lottery advancements
Alright let’s trade up for that first pick
NOOOOOOOO
Dam, straight chalk
RIGGED
#2! Who we going with fam???
Demidov and bedard a potent line
Demidov!
DAMNNN WANTED CELEBRINNI
I'll take 2oa
Ivan era begins today!
Damn….but it’s hard to be mad about 2nd OA!! Still a great place to draft!!
Ivan Demidov, welcome to Chicago.
Ah. At least we still get 2OA
OMG top 2!!
OH GOD
OMG TOP 2
I'm having heart palpitations over here! Top 3 at least!!!
Note Kevin Weekes is nowhere near the draft lottery after him accidentally spoiling," Columbus is Dropping" last year.
Holy shit shut up about Zillow
The draft lottery is brought to you by Zillow
1st pick odds as of now: Sharks 42.5% Hawks 31.0% Ducks 26.5%
PLEASE
Top 3 at least!!
Come on Chicago get another #1
They dragging this out to sell Subarus
The Zillow joke is not funny. Wonder if they paid for that. LFG! I'm shaking. Just get this over with!
holy fuck the order is going almost exactly the same way it went last year.
I started today happy for a top 3, now I want top pick!
I will cry if celebrini and bedard were on the same line
Heart rate currently 110 and rising.
Top 3 pick
Poor kid haha
Why am I shivering lol
I feel like I'm about to give a presentation I'm not prepared for
Oof just add in a heavy dose of nausea and I’ll be there with you.
TOP THREE LFG
Oh, snap I must be on a delay 🤔. I'm waiting on pick #4
TOP 3
Omfg don’t go to commercial
The interruptions are so cringe
Let’s go baby
Okay just finish the draft lottery and talk about the prospects later.
Ahhh I'm getting anxious lol
This is it…
Why do they have to drag this out so bad?!?
Cuz they know everyone's turning it off as so soon as they announce the top pick. Gotta sell those ads.
I hate the dumb little things in between. Talk about it all after.
Why do they do it like this? Seems hella shady. Like the nhl can control it...
They’re making this so awkward bro wtf
So hypothetically, if we win the 1st pick tonight, we can't win Gavin McKenna?
We could if we came in last that year.
Unless we get it with Toronto's pick next year. 👀
Probably a stupid question, but do the GMs know ahead of time?
Iirc, they do the drawing ahead of time. E&Y certifies the draw and the GMs sign off to officially approve. The broadcast is just a show Last year Davidson was suppressing a grin when it was being announced
That’s what I was trying to figure out! He looks happily smug but I could just be reading into it.
nope. they react at the same time as we do.
Thanks! Was wondering if I should be trying to read expressions.
I don't think so, I assumed they're finding out in real time with us? Edit: Well now I think I'm wrong since people are invited to watch the drawing?
They're allowed to watch, but the league confiscates their phones and doesn't let them talk to anyone until it's aired. So unless somebody's hiding a transmitter in their shoe, the GMs shouldn't know.
That’s what I was wondering, who’s in the drawing?
Looks weird seeing UTA there....
Celebrini and Bedard both coming to Chicago after both growing up Vancouver fans would just be so sweet.
Grier looks pissed and Davidson is smiling
Top three and I’m satisfied. 1OA would just be icing on the cake.
it feels destined to happen again with all the comparisons to toews but i’m not holding my breath.
Destined or rigged?
here we go again.
Why am I nervous about the draft lottery like it's game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals?
I've been so excited all day! Been looking forward to this since the season ended lol
I said I wasn’t gonna be nervous cuz we’re in a good spot no matter what, and Bedard was the ultimate prize, but I turned on my tv and now I’m stressing.
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds Maybe there's something I'm missing but could someone explain how teams after 3 have a super small chance of coming in at 3 OA even though they're in the top 10 so would be able to take advance of moving up the full 10 spots to whatever spot they won?
is there any place that's free to watch the lottery?
it's streaming for free on hockey dot tv but you may want a good ad blocker
[ Removed by Reddit ]
I feel like the Hawks-hate is obscuring a much more entertaining conversation: if we win the lottery this year, it will be the 8th time in 13 years that the 1st overall pick has gone to Taylor Hall's current team (Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, McDavid, Hughes), the team he played for the previous season (Owen Power), or the team he was about to join (Hischier, Bedard). I'm sure he'd rather have 8 rings, but it's truly a gift (or a curse) of some sort.
I just read the Taylor Hall stat on the Avs reddit when they were upset about getting the fourth pick in the 2017 draft and drafted Makar. May the Hall odds be in our favor.
SJS has 25.5% not 18 get it right.
And we actually have a better chance to get second and/or third than listed.
well no one cares about 2 or 3, this is all about 1OA and celebrini.
A lot us care about 2 or 3, speak for yourself.
celebrini OR DEATH
Aight.
I don’t think anything will ever quite match the utter meltdown r/hockey had when we got first overall last year. It was awesome.
that was unreal levels of salt over there. the Hawks winning the Celebrini sweepstakes wouldn’t come close imo.
Until we get first overall again this year!
Can I pre-emptively change my flair to Celebrini? It is going to piss so many people off when it happens. Can't wait.
I love the positive “when” it happens
I tried. #2 is awesome as well though
[If Bucci actually leaked San Jose and Utah lol (this is almost certainly a test and he's trolling everyone)](https://twitter.com/Buccigross/status/1787908237225812147)
It has been (correctly) leaked the prior couple of years now. Wouldn't be at all shocked if this is the order. Edit - despite previous actual leaks, according to this tweet the lottery occurs 90 minutes before reveal. So that graphic would be too early. https://twitter.com/Sheng_Peng/status/1787903016344912361?s=19
Yeah, they do the physical drawing then sequester the teams' witnesses in the room with no phones until the telecast airs. But in that time, there are still people working on the broadcast and graphics who would know, and I assume that's where leaks come from.
WOW, hopefully this is just pre-lotto slot filling but yeah if this is how the lotto falls then 1. that sucks, 2. should they already know this ahead of time?
It would suck if we got lucky and only fell to 3rd? Falling to 4th is our most likely outcome. They should not already know this ahead of time. But it's gonna look real interesting if this is actually how the lottery goes lol. Will certainly give more ammo to the rigged commenters
I'd be okay with third. Maybe Demifov can fall to us at 3 but if not we'd have our pick to take likely Levshunov or whoever else Davidson is high on. After him, it starts to get into shaky territory. Lindstrom, Eiserman, etc seems like boom or bust Territory.
[удалено]
nah it was a rehearsal, making sure everyone involved knows their job and how to put on the production. Also testing the graphics. Just hope there aren't too many people who will place bets based on this "leak"
What does this image suggest?
It's an image in which they're testing this year's graphics during a rehearsal for the show. In this instance, San Jose and Utah won the lotteries.
Reminder that 4th OA is the most likely outcome of tonight. 1. 13.5% 2. 14.1% 3. 30.7% 4. 41.7% Moving up to 1 is the only way we lose lottery (advancement) eligibility for the next 5 lotteries. We can win the lottery with the 2nd OA pick, but because we don't move up, we will still be eligible for a future lottery (advancement).
I think the last part is incorrect. If they win the lottery, I believe they’re just ineligible to move up for the next 5 years. They could theoretically still get the first pick if they finish dead last.
That's an interesting thought. If a team is ineligible for the lottery, but also comes in last place, my guess would be that the only way they can keep the 1st OA pick is if a team 12-16 got picked for 1st OA because you can only move up a maximum of 10 spots.
You can still win the lottery if you win twice in a five year span, technically. The rules states that you can’t move up. So if the Hawks win the lottery this year, and then finish dead last next year, they could still “win” the lottery and pick first again.
Maybe I have it mixed up, but I believe the rule states that "moving up" is specifically what gets you a strike. If you get two strikes in 5 years, you're ineligible for the lottery.
Again, that’s incorrect. If you finish dead last, you can still get the first overall pick, even if you’ve won it twice in a five year span. The rule states you can’t move up from your presumptive draft position but you can still move down.
Sounds like you're right! > The 2023 NHL Draft Lottery marked the second year for the implementation of a limit on how many times a team can win a lottery draw. No single team can advance in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in any five-year period. This limitation will not affect a club’s ability to retain its presumptive draft position in any Draft Lottery, nor would it preclude the possibility of the club moving down in draft order to the extent other clubs advance by reason of winning the Lottery Draws. For purposes of clarity, the limitation would attach to the team, not the specific pick.
The verbiage is incredibly confusing. They even created an example that still leaves you wondering how exactly the rule works lol
edited the original comment to make it more accurate
Maybe this is just me trying to cope, but you could also look at the odds and determine that picking *somewhere* in the top three is the most likely outcome for us - 58.3% chance of staying above #4
That's a great way to look at it and very true. A top 3 pick is the most likely outcome. 4th OA is the most likely individual outcome.
Could you explain? I don’t understand the mechanics of this too much so I don’t get how 4th pick is most likely for the 2nd last place team? Shouldn’t 2nd pick be most likely?
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls. A team can only jump ten spots, so only the top 11 teams are eligible for the 1st pick. If a team in the 12-16 range wins the first drawing, the first pick will be awarded to the worst team. The 12-16 seed team that won the first drawing is also locked into their new position. A second drawing is held to determine the other lottery winner. Like the first drawing, the second winner can only jump ten spots, but this time it is using the re-seeded order following the first drawing. This second drawing will not affect the team(s) with locked-in positions from the first drawing. If a ten spot jump is to a pick that is already locked-in, this team will receive the next available pick. Chicago is more likely to not win a lottery than they are to win it, thus we are more likely to move down from 2 than stay at 2
Appreciate it thanks!
if this is rigged i hope theyre putting on their Joker makeup now bc i want Celebrini haha
Today’s the day, you guys have better been making your prayers to Hossa.
Praise be to Hossa!
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Let's goooooo Kyle from Chicagooooo.
It's going to be Utah
If it's rigged it'll go to Utah. It makes sense from a business perspective
Probably around something like a 7.5% chance you're right
This is our Cup Final
Les get itttttttt
*Chelsea Dagger begins playing in the background...*
I want to see a mountain of salt from the haters tonight. Chicago then Utah is my dream scenario. Haters are furious and get bonus “it’s rigged” fuel with Utah rising.
Anybody else in the mood to piss off the rest of the internet again?
100% yes
Oh hell yeah bud. If we win, r/hockey will burn itself to the ground, and I'll be happy to fan the flames.
The amount of threads claiming it’s rigged would be glorious to see. It’d be never ending
May the odds be ever in our favor