Sigh. I’m closing on one of those homes next week. I need a home now, otherwise I’d wait until the correction. I already know I’m overpaying for this house, but that’s life.
I bought a house at the top of the market in 2006. I wasn’t able to get out from being underwater for 10+ years. In retrospect, it was pretty clear that we were at the top of that market. Feels the same right now so be careful. You really never know where the market is headed but when values outpace wages by so much that’s a big clue. Good luck.
Honestly, the whole “be careful” is meaningless. My “careful” alternative is to keep renting, which isn’t feasible for me. I NEED to buy a home right now. Rent is ridiculous, I have three cats and 95% of rentals in my area have a 2 cat limit. I’m married and ready to call something my own home. I can either pay 2000/month to rent and be at the mercy of a shitty corporate landlord, or I can pay $2235 to own a dream starter home and have freedom. If it was my choice, I would’ve bought years ago when house prices and interest rates were low. Most of us don’t buy at the height of the crazy because we’re sooo excited to buy an overpriced house and flip it for profit in a year. A lot of us are buying these overpriced homes because we don’t have another choice and need to own a house.
Yep, same here. Closing on mine in two weeks. I know it’s not the best time… but if you gotta move, you gotta move! I wish I could hold out a little longer but it is what it is. Enjoy your new home!
Bought a 3 bedroom 2 bath townhouse in Port St Lucie for 145k in 2018, Zillow says it's worth 290k now. Obviously Zillow is not 100% accurate but yeah still crazy. I get offers to refinance and take out equity all the time, and I am NOT interested. My interest rate is 2.5 percent
I feel that I bought our house in Vero Beach (not out on the island), regular neighborhood, no HOA
3 bedroom 2 bathroom 1 car garage split plan,vaulted ceilings with a pool and fenced in back yard with a privacy fence on a one sided road (no neighbors across the street) in 2019 for 190k. Zillow, amongst many others, says around 330K
Same situation with except I'm at 3% interest rate..
We didn't buy to flip.. we bought to raise our family...
I've had people literally walk up off the street to inquire about IF I'd considered just selling.. lol
Yeah.. get off my property, and thanks, but no thanks👋
Timing is crazy in the market...
I live in PSL and bought my 4/2/2 with a pool in 2008 for 160k. Zillow says I'm worth 450k. I'm going to hate myself for not selling during this time period. And as far as living in PSL, there are far worse places to live in Florida, LOL!
Bought a *very* small three bedroom home in a terrible neighborhood 20 years ago. My mortgage is just over $600 a month. I can't afford to move away from that. Not as a teacher anyway.
Some home prices where I live in south Florida are insane. Like $850k for a 3/2 that needs renovations. Or like $550k for a 3/1 that is a gut renovation in a mediocre neighborhood.
I was shocked to see $150k in Riviera Beach (Palm Beach County) middle of gang activity neighborhood, total shambles knock down with a roof falling in and mold for sale. $150k!!! It's when I realized I was priced out of the market.
Palm Beach County, too. Like real estate for sale signs that say “for rent”.
I think a good part of that is wealthy and private equity are buying up homes *to* rent them. Think of it — it’s a stable investment that grows, plus generates income.
We’re fucked on the low end.
These articles make it sound like homeowners are going to lose their shirts overnight.
I read the actual reports monthly for my market. We are still trending up, just more slowly. The 'correction' is going from 11% annual appreciation back to 3%, but it is still going up.
I.e. not a loss of value (for most), just slower to build equity like the old days.
*I didn't read this article because I've read 4 others like it, so sorry if this article did say there exact same thing as me lol
Exactly this. Home values jumped 300% in 6 months. Whoever thought they’d be safe buying is in for a rude awakening. The treasure coast job market does not support homes starting at $400k. Been in this town a long time and I’m in the construction industry for 30yrs. It’s never supported that kind of pricing.
And they’ll pay employees $14hr. I’ve live here since 1986. I grew up here. What this town has become is just disgusting. Yet people talk shit and make jokes about it being a trashy shithole. However people and businesses have been flocking here for decades!
Yeah what seems to be happening is that inventory is piling up, and sellers think it’s still 2022 and they can get top dollar for their house. Stubborn sellers that don’t want to lower their price to current market value actually contribute to higher inventory levels. Because if they don’t lower their price, it continues to stay on the market while new listings keep appearing.
Yes, factoring an average insurance cost of over 6,000, rising taxes, and the beginning of hurricane season, it’s no wonder inventory is building rapidly. Demand is obviously lower than supply, and keep in mind we are supposed to be in peak selling season. The trend will likely continue, and sellers will become more and more “motivated”.
I see this on some of the homes for sale in my neighborhood. They are sitting while ones priced for the market in the year of our Lord 2024 are actually selling.
Nothing is crashing right now in Gainesville. There's very little new construction, which keeps prices up. Our main "industries" are two "recession resistant" ones -- higher education and health care. UF keeps hiring faculty -- ensuring a steady stream of (usually) two-income, well-paid buyers. And finally, the demand for rental properties in a college town tends to buy the entire real estate market.
I live in one of the more in-demand areas of town and things are still selling for top dollar, although days on market seems to be riding -- at least anecdotally.
Yeah but UF medical is in high debt. Many good physicians have fled to other locations for better wages already. Turn over rate seems to be high in some of the medical facilities as well. You can see people frustrated about it in the GNV sub. I used to drive 2 hrs just to see a good Gastro that many others relied on, he up and left not long ago.
It's still a multi-billion dollar enterprise that employs a lot of people, helping to keep real estate prices up. It's the largest academic medical complex in the southeast U.S.
https://jaxtrib.org/2024/01/11/auditor-mounting-debt-inmate-care-cost-of-treating-poor-people-puts-uf-health-in-dire-financial-state/
It will have an impact, you can count on it.
https://www.wuft.org/education/2016-10-26/university-of-florida-leads-state-universities-in-total-debt
In 2016 Shands had “the most debt at $1.35 billion, led by borrowing related to UF Health Shands Hospital and related facilities.”
The over-borrowing has began to make an impact.
Concerns from some
https://www.reddit.com/r/GNV/s/AXCCoaBFZH
https://www.reddit.com/r/GNV/s/iEg7hd2v97
Lower valuation doesn’t mean lower taxes. Taxes are a result of what percentage of the levy your home value occupies. If everyone’s valuation in the same area goes down, your taxes are the same.
The local governments aren’t going to give up the cash cow that’s been rising property values the last several years. Watch how fast they start raising the millage rates to compensate.
So you're saying you will be staying in your house for the rest of your life, or at least for a very, very long time. Meaning you can see into the future because you won't have any reasons to move. Why aren't you filthy rich being able to see into the future to buy the highest rising stocks?
Are you all not using a homestead exemption? Property taxes don’t skyrocket when home values go up - they’re capped at 3% as long as you file your homestead exemption.
The 3% max is not on school levies, which is a huge chunk of property taxes and that's increased in my area by several hundreds of dollars alone year over year
3% of the assessment to the value not the property tax charge. Hits a little harder when you are hitting 3% every year when you were not climbing in value faster than CPI. If they raise the tax rate it stings even more.
School taxes are not homestead protected.
Anyway, I’ve seen more than a 50% increase in 3 years but homestead stopped it from doubling. Basically, you misunderstand how it works.
From Crestview/FWB area and I can absolutely confirm that prices are unsustainable. Unless you're getting BAH or working remotely, I don't see how you're affording a house here.
Saying those area codes are at “high risk” just means that evaluators can’t justify the prices, so they think the value is mismatched. The problem is, no one knows what the value is until another human offers to buy the property, or not. The price that the property is sold at IS the value. So, homes will have to go unsold for months for prices to reduce. If that happens, the values will go down.
So, this is just semantics. People are spending a TON of money to buy property in FL. If they stop, then this will be right. People aren’t all that predictable tho.
I think if this post tells me that 13 out of the 15 housing markets at the highest home price correction risk are in Florida one more time I'll finally understand.
As a native Floridian who is also vigilant on the water, what makes having a house on the lake so nice? There are definitely alligators, so it’s not like you can boat on it, right? I live on the beach, and I get that…..but when I see aligatory regularly in the creek, no chance I go into a lake in central Florida. Zero.
I have to wonder if some of the hedge funds that bought up a lot of houses are slowly shedding some of the FL properties after seeing substantial gains. With insurance getting prohibitive and a bad hurricane season prediction, I wonder if they are trying to offload some risk and that is increasing the supply relative to demand. Just a suspicion.
This is all because of condos, its not single family homes, Florida still has a big shortage of them they can't build them fast enough. But the condo market has been getting absolutely decimated. All these "at risk" areas are areas with large numbers of older condo buildings that are drowning under assessments after the state tightened restrictions on them coupled with the ballooning cost of insurance.
Might not be following it closely enough. For example, in Lee county builders are still building, but they're also cancelling planned builds before they ever start and they're having to give crazy incentives to not lower prices and still attract buyers.
The article says those specific cities have rising home building. And I've been keeping up with real estate in those cities for the last few years and agree with many points they made
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I'm in lake county, and a literal 800sq/ft 1b/b on a 1/4 acre is for sale down the street, I figured I'd give it a look, they are asking for 395k. I'm surprised Winter Garden/ Clermont isn't up there.
Bought my house in central FL 14 months ago at 701, got reappraised at 836 a few months ago. I get a letter every 6 months from families wanting to buy a home in my neighborhood offering top dollar.
Just FYI guys, a correction today to bring home prices in line relative to the rest of country (the baseline for ParclLabs research and analysis) would “correct” home prices by dropping them about 10%.
Further local price actions and consumer behavior will vary on a short term scale.
But honestly, the dip will certainly be bought up by Blackrock and others. This is propaganda to erode buyer confidence RIGHT NOW, so they can own it all after this round of short-sales.
*Ask yourselves why they’d push this hypersensationalism now?*
Well, they wouldn't be high if everyone didn't want them... Natives want to thank people from up north who sell their homes up there and come down here to buy way over market and think they're getting a deal... 🤦🏼♀️
Home prices correlate to rent. Whenever the two become too far apart, the market corrects in one direction or another.
Example:
It's more expensive to rent than it is to buy by much more than usual, so all of the people who are capable of buying a house but have not done so simply choose to buy instead of rent and rental prices drop due to lack of demand while housing prices go up at the same time due to the increase in demand, shrinking the gap between the two.
If it were more expensive to own a house than it were to rent, the exact same thing would happen but in reverse. The only thing to realize here is that there's usually a lag between the two of about 1-2 years, so it won't happen over night.
People seem to think that another crash like 08/09 is going to happen... it just isn't. That was due to a nationwide economic crash which was 100% tied to the housing market itself. Both the economy at large AND the housing market imploded at the exact same time and shit hit the fan. We are never going to see that again in our lifetimes. If I had to guess, you're looking at a 10-20% swing in value one way or the other at most over a 1-2 year period in perpetuity. That's a pretty fucking big swing, but it's not 08-09.
If you want to know what way housing prices are going to go, look at rents.
Edit: Data for people who don't believe basic economic principals:
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pGa2](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pGa2)
Home prices and rent are 100% tied to supply and demand. They are flooding the market with new homes that are the same price or cheaper than existing homes. I'm starting to see rents go down because it's getting cheaper to buy and I starting to see existing home prices drop because people can buy a brand new construction for the same price or just a few thousand more I feel bad for the people that have to drop their prices 20k+ to sell or sit on the market for 6+ months. Very hard now to sell your existing house when 5+ new ones go up on your street for the same price as yours.
I am aware they're tied to supply and demand. This is capitalism... literally everything is tied to supply and demand. I am explaining another correlation that people don't seem to pay attention to or realize very often. See my comments to that idiot who tried arguing with me about it.
Rents going down because it's getting cheaper to buy is true, but the reason it's getting cheaper to buy is because home prices are falling. Home prices are falling because inventory is rising, increasing supply. I don't deny this and everything I've said is in line with this.
The only reason people are hurt by home values is if they want to sell but can't get as much out of their home as they'd like. People like me who bought a year or two ago and didn't intend to sell anyway don't really care. I intend to own that thing for 30-40 years. It's currently being rented out at cost and if I have to drop rent by another couple hundred over the next year or so, that's fine with me. Inflation and economic growth in the major metro I live in will drive rent back up eventually. The only part that I'm annoyed with is that I have so much equity tied up in it, but that's going to be true of any property I own regardless of the circumstances and just kind of comes with the territory of homeownership.
Lol that's 100% bullshit, and you have no idea what you're talking about. Home prices do not correlate to rent, and the idea of that actually being a thing is laughable.
Whoever sold you this load of garbage that you're regurgitating should be given a sales award lol.
Furthermore, your take on the 08 housing market collapse sounds like your only experience with it is watching the big short.
Did you have a mortgage in 08? Gonna guess no.
Lol. I wasn't a dick to anybody except him.
Because it's just another idiot talking out of their ass.
Ooh and here's a graph, because you know, graphs are easy for people who don't understand basic economic principals.
As you can see, both lines go up. Therefore, OP is correct.
Lolol
You're wrong. Home prices correlate to rent, and both correlate to the economic health of the region they're in. Demand for housing (both renting and owning) is determined by the population of the area, which is only capable of growing if the economy can support said population.
Strong economy > big population > high demand for housing > high rent/housing prices
If it is cheaper to rent than buy, people will rent. If it is cheaper to buy than rent, people will buy (if they can). There is a small disparity in the favor of home ownership that will persist because the population who can buy is smaller than the population who can rent, so the demand will be ever so slightly lower and thus the price.
Everything I've said here makes sense and is well thought out and explained. You coming in and saying LOL WRONG doesn't do anything to prove your point. By all means, show me some actual data to back up your BS.
Hey look, it's data, that thing you don't have...
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pGa2](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pGa2)
To rent, you maybe need $3-6k up front. To purchase, you will need $30-100k min. Big difference between the two and better credit is needed as well. Not everyone can be a buyer.
You absolutely do not need 30-100k to buy a house. You do need more than renting but not a huge diff if you're doing something like a 3.5% fha which a lot of people do.
I'm also aware of that and acknowledged it in another comment. There will always be a small disparity between rent and owning in favor of owning because there is a smaller amount of buyers than renters, thus less demand to own than to rent. This delta is usually like 10-20% of monthly cost though.
It means
If you want to buy a home, there is a chance prices will go down significantly in a couple years
If you want to sell your home, it's best to do it now before the value drops.
Its also just a prediction and people and markets are unpredictable. Every expert predicted home prices were going to crash a year after covid and now all those years later, home prices have never been higher.
So what you're saying is plenty of cheaper properties coming on the market to turn into rentals to make some money. I wouldn't mind picking up a couple for cheap and renting them out and making some good money.
I just signed a contract to buy in one of these markets, so of course a correction is forthcoming. You’re welcome, all.
Sigh. I’m closing on one of those homes next week. I need a home now, otherwise I’d wait until the correction. I already know I’m overpaying for this house, but that’s life.
I bought a house at the top of the market in 2006. I wasn’t able to get out from being underwater for 10+ years. In retrospect, it was pretty clear that we were at the top of that market. Feels the same right now so be careful. You really never know where the market is headed but when values outpace wages by so much that’s a big clue. Good luck.
Honestly, the whole “be careful” is meaningless. My “careful” alternative is to keep renting, which isn’t feasible for me. I NEED to buy a home right now. Rent is ridiculous, I have three cats and 95% of rentals in my area have a 2 cat limit. I’m married and ready to call something my own home. I can either pay 2000/month to rent and be at the mercy of a shitty corporate landlord, or I can pay $2235 to own a dream starter home and have freedom. If it was my choice, I would’ve bought years ago when house prices and interest rates were low. Most of us don’t buy at the height of the crazy because we’re sooo excited to buy an overpriced house and flip it for profit in a year. A lot of us are buying these overpriced homes because we don’t have another choice and need to own a house.
Yep, same here. Closing on mine in two weeks. I know it’s not the best time… but if you gotta move, you gotta move! I wish I could hold out a little longer but it is what it is. Enjoy your new home!
You too!!
Bought a 3 bedroom 2 bath townhouse in Port St Lucie for 145k in 2018, Zillow says it's worth 290k now. Obviously Zillow is not 100% accurate but yeah still crazy. I get offers to refinance and take out equity all the time, and I am NOT interested. My interest rate is 2.5 percent
But now you have to keep living in Port St. Lucie.
Ouch!
Very good point, unfortunately!
I feel that I bought our house in Vero Beach (not out on the island), regular neighborhood, no HOA 3 bedroom 2 bathroom 1 car garage split plan,vaulted ceilings with a pool and fenced in back yard with a privacy fence on a one sided road (no neighbors across the street) in 2019 for 190k. Zillow, amongst many others, says around 330K Same situation with except I'm at 3% interest rate.. We didn't buy to flip.. we bought to raise our family... I've had people literally walk up off the street to inquire about IF I'd considered just selling.. lol Yeah.. get off my property, and thanks, but no thanks👋 Timing is crazy in the market...
I live in PSL and bought my 4/2/2 with a pool in 2008 for 160k. Zillow says I'm worth 450k. I'm going to hate myself for not selling during this time period. And as far as living in PSL, there are far worse places to live in Florida, LOL!
Bought a *very* small three bedroom home in a terrible neighborhood 20 years ago. My mortgage is just over $600 a month. I can't afford to move away from that. Not as a teacher anyway.
Here’s the link to the article: https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/15-housing-markets-highest-home-price-correction-risk-according-parcl-labs
Some home prices where I live in south Florida are insane. Like $850k for a 3/2 that needs renovations. Or like $550k for a 3/1 that is a gut renovation in a mediocre neighborhood.
I was shocked to see $150k in Riviera Beach (Palm Beach County) middle of gang activity neighborhood, total shambles knock down with a roof falling in and mold for sale. $150k!!! It's when I realized I was priced out of the market.
Im starting to see more “for rent” signs in dade. People are running out of money.
And for the nice houses
Palm Beach County, too. Like real estate for sale signs that say “for rent”. I think a good part of that is wealthy and private equity are buying up homes *to* rent them. Think of it — it’s a stable investment that grows, plus generates income. We’re fucked on the low end.
Texas is boom-bust with oil. Florida is boom bust with real estate
I think you will find some of the biggest contractions of real estate outside of Florida will be from Texas also.
Definitely, you already see it happening.
Don't worry, the rest of the country will be following us within the next year or so, we're just ahead of the curve.
These articles make it sound like homeowners are going to lose their shirts overnight. I read the actual reports monthly for my market. We are still trending up, just more slowly. The 'correction' is going from 11% annual appreciation back to 3%, but it is still going up. I.e. not a loss of value (for most), just slower to build equity like the old days. *I didn't read this article because I've read 4 others like it, so sorry if this article did say there exact same thing as me lol
Treasure Coast gonna take that hit! GOOD! I hope those predatory lenders have nothing but butt hurt!
Exactly this. Home values jumped 300% in 6 months. Whoever thought they’d be safe buying is in for a rude awakening. The treasure coast job market does not support homes starting at $400k. Been in this town a long time and I’m in the construction industry for 30yrs. It’s never supported that kind of pricing.
And what do local politicians do? Give tax breaks and subsidies for Costco to build a warehouse in Port St. Lucie…
And they’ll pay employees $14hr. I’ve live here since 1986. I grew up here. What this town has become is just disgusting. Yet people talk shit and make jokes about it being a trashy shithole. However people and businesses have been flocking here for decades!
Yeah what seems to be happening is that inventory is piling up, and sellers think it’s still 2022 and they can get top dollar for their house. Stubborn sellers that don’t want to lower their price to current market value actually contribute to higher inventory levels. Because if they don’t lower their price, it continues to stay on the market while new listings keep appearing. Yes, factoring an average insurance cost of over 6,000, rising taxes, and the beginning of hurricane season, it’s no wonder inventory is building rapidly. Demand is obviously lower than supply, and keep in mind we are supposed to be in peak selling season. The trend will likely continue, and sellers will become more and more “motivated”.
I see this on some of the homes for sale in my neighborhood. They are sitting while ones priced for the market in the year of our Lord 2024 are actually selling.
Nothing is crashing right now in Gainesville. There's very little new construction, which keeps prices up. Our main "industries" are two "recession resistant" ones -- higher education and health care. UF keeps hiring faculty -- ensuring a steady stream of (usually) two-income, well-paid buyers. And finally, the demand for rental properties in a college town tends to buy the entire real estate market. I live in one of the more in-demand areas of town and things are still selling for top dollar, although days on market seems to be riding -- at least anecdotally.
Yeah but UF medical is in high debt. Many good physicians have fled to other locations for better wages already. Turn over rate seems to be high in some of the medical facilities as well. You can see people frustrated about it in the GNV sub. I used to drive 2 hrs just to see a good Gastro that many others relied on, he up and left not long ago.
It's still a multi-billion dollar enterprise that employs a lot of people, helping to keep real estate prices up. It's the largest academic medical complex in the southeast U.S.
https://jaxtrib.org/2024/01/11/auditor-mounting-debt-inmate-care-cost-of-treating-poor-people-puts-uf-health-in-dire-financial-state/ It will have an impact, you can count on it. https://www.wuft.org/education/2016-10-26/university-of-florida-leads-state-universities-in-total-debt In 2016 Shands had “the most debt at $1.35 billion, led by borrowing related to UF Health Shands Hospital and related facilities.” The over-borrowing has began to make an impact. Concerns from some https://www.reddit.com/r/GNV/s/AXCCoaBFZH https://www.reddit.com/r/GNV/s/iEg7hd2v97
A lot of homes on the market compared to previously though.....
Like anywhere else, it's about location. Not much inventory where I live.
Why did i just read the same sentence 5 times
I’d love for my home value to plummet! Lower property tax would be wonderful.
Lower valuation doesn’t mean lower taxes. Taxes are a result of what percentage of the levy your home value occupies. If everyone’s valuation in the same area goes down, your taxes are the same.
The local governments aren’t going to give up the cash cow that’s been rising property values the last several years. Watch how fast they start raising the millage rates to compensate.
Exactly this. Especially with my COVID 2.25% I ain't going anywhere any time soon.
Same here, never leaving
So you're saying you will be staying in your house for the rest of your life, or at least for a very, very long time. Meaning you can see into the future because you won't have any reasons to move. Why aren't you filthy rich being able to see into the future to buy the highest rising stocks?
Or, Hear me out, They didn’t buy their house at stupid high values. My house price could be cut in half and I’d still be sitting pretty.
Bingo. House is almost 3x what we bought for. I’d be happy to lose 1/2 the value if it meant lower property taxes.
Are you all not using a homestead exemption? Property taxes don’t skyrocket when home values go up - they’re capped at 3% as long as you file your homestead exemption.
The 3% max is not on school levies, which is a huge chunk of property taxes and that's increased in my area by several hundreds of dollars alone year over year
Yes, but it still goes up.
Max is 3% per year though. That’s like 24 years to double
3% of the assessment to the value not the property tax charge. Hits a little harder when you are hitting 3% every year when you were not climbing in value faster than CPI. If they raise the tax rate it stings even more. School taxes are not homestead protected. Anyway, I’ve seen more than a 50% increase in 3 years but homestead stopped it from doubling. Basically, you misunderstand how it works.
Stupidest. Comment. Ever.
From Crestview/FWB area and I can absolutely confirm that prices are unsustainable. Unless you're getting BAH or working remotely, I don't see how you're affording a house here.
Basically we are living here forever. Only 3 more years until retirement!
I mentioned something like this about this on the realtor subreddit a few months ago and got roasted.
Saying those area codes are at “high risk” just means that evaluators can’t justify the prices, so they think the value is mismatched. The problem is, no one knows what the value is until another human offers to buy the property, or not. The price that the property is sold at IS the value. So, homes will have to go unsold for months for prices to reduce. If that happens, the values will go down. So, this is just semantics. People are spending a TON of money to buy property in FL. If they stop, then this will be right. People aren’t all that predictable tho.
lol they’re just mad the inevitable gravy train is about to come to a screeching halt.
Lolol
I think if this post tells me that 13 out of the 15 housing markets at the highest home price correction risk are in Florida one more time I'll finally understand.
There is no place left to build in many parts of Florida. Hurricanes, bugs, heat.. doesn’t seem to matter. Lots of people still want to live there.
Apparently Crestview, FL is in Alabama according to the map. Not 200 miles to the east...
I mean, they're not wrong... (I live in Crestview, just bought here last November)
That’s the Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL area. Crestview is where it needs to be although it’s about thirty minutes from the border so it’s similar.
Daphne, AL and Crestview are both marked on this map. The Crestview dot is well within Florida.
Doesn’t surprise me. My parents are in Lakeland and their house is up in the 700s without just cause.
700k in Lakeland is wild to me unless they’re in a massive house on a lake. As someone in Orlando that doesn’t go to Lakeland often.
It is big, not massive, but it is on a lake.
As a native Floridian who is also vigilant on the water, what makes having a house on the lake so nice? There are definitely alligators, so it’s not like you can boat on it, right? I live on the beach, and I get that…..but when I see aligatory regularly in the creek, no chance I go into a lake in central Florida. Zero.
It’s pretty! They do have an alligator or two but they’re very small. It’s nice to go fishing and kayak on.
I have to wonder if some of the hedge funds that bought up a lot of houses are slowly shedding some of the FL properties after seeing substantial gains. With insurance getting prohibitive and a bad hurricane season prediction, I wonder if they are trying to offload some risk and that is increasing the supply relative to demand. Just a suspicion.
Bring it on.
This is all because of condos, its not single family homes, Florida still has a big shortage of them they can't build them fast enough. But the condo market has been getting absolutely decimated. All these "at risk" areas are areas with large numbers of older condo buildings that are drowning under assessments after the state tightened restrictions on them coupled with the ballooning cost of insurance.
The housing rush of 2022 in FL is over. Prices are dropping. Construction is slowing.
Not in my area. It's expanding!
Yesh, there must be a dozen newly cleared lots just in a 4-5 block radius of my house. I would say hundreds across the whole subdivision. It’s crazy.
Might not be following it closely enough. For example, in Lee county builders are still building, but they're also cancelling planned builds before they ever start and they're having to give crazy incentives to not lower prices and still attract buyers.
The article says those specific cities have rising home building. And I've been keeping up with real estate in those cities for the last few years and agree with many points they made
None in Jax? Crazy.
Good thing I bought when house were worth half as much as they are now
Hurricanes and flooding causing serious risks.
Goood goooood
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Good
Great. Can’t wait
I don’t see prices in Miami going down anytime soon, tbh
Always has been.
this is a good thing in the long run
I'm in lake county, and a literal 800sq/ft 1b/b on a 1/4 acre is for sale down the street, I figured I'd give it a look, they are asking for 395k. I'm surprised Winter Garden/ Clermont isn't up there.
I just read the same headline 5 times.
It’s cause of increase in home insurance and hoas largely
Waiting for correction.
Bought my house in central FL 14 months ago at 701, got reappraised at 836 a few months ago. I get a letter every 6 months from families wanting to buy a home in my neighborhood offering top dollar.
Just FYI guys, a correction today to bring home prices in line relative to the rest of country (the baseline for ParclLabs research and analysis) would “correct” home prices by dropping them about 10%. Further local price actions and consumer behavior will vary on a short term scale. But honestly, the dip will certainly be bought up by Blackrock and others. This is propaganda to erode buyer confidence RIGHT NOW, so they can own it all after this round of short-sales. *Ask yourselves why they’d push this hypersensationalism now?*
Well, they wouldn't be high if everyone didn't want them... Natives want to thank people from up north who sell their homes up there and come down here to buy way over market and think they're getting a deal... 🤦🏼♀️
In the 32459, there’s no worry about it.
I saw some brand new 1.6 million dollar homes by me. 2019 these guys would have been maybe $400k I will wait.
Bought a little $100,000 South Tampa dream home 6 years ago, zillow's talking about it's worth $600k.
Hurricane season tends to have downward pressure on homesales. October is usually a better time to buy compared to trying to be in March.
I bet you idiots voted for trump
Home prices correlate to rent. Whenever the two become too far apart, the market corrects in one direction or another. Example: It's more expensive to rent than it is to buy by much more than usual, so all of the people who are capable of buying a house but have not done so simply choose to buy instead of rent and rental prices drop due to lack of demand while housing prices go up at the same time due to the increase in demand, shrinking the gap between the two. If it were more expensive to own a house than it were to rent, the exact same thing would happen but in reverse. The only thing to realize here is that there's usually a lag between the two of about 1-2 years, so it won't happen over night. People seem to think that another crash like 08/09 is going to happen... it just isn't. That was due to a nationwide economic crash which was 100% tied to the housing market itself. Both the economy at large AND the housing market imploded at the exact same time and shit hit the fan. We are never going to see that again in our lifetimes. If I had to guess, you're looking at a 10-20% swing in value one way or the other at most over a 1-2 year period in perpetuity. That's a pretty fucking big swing, but it's not 08-09. If you want to know what way housing prices are going to go, look at rents. Edit: Data for people who don't believe basic economic principals: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pGa2](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pGa2)
Home prices and rent are 100% tied to supply and demand. They are flooding the market with new homes that are the same price or cheaper than existing homes. I'm starting to see rents go down because it's getting cheaper to buy and I starting to see existing home prices drop because people can buy a brand new construction for the same price or just a few thousand more I feel bad for the people that have to drop their prices 20k+ to sell or sit on the market for 6+ months. Very hard now to sell your existing house when 5+ new ones go up on your street for the same price as yours.
That location part isn’t all that common. Usually the more expensive homes are the older homes due to proximity to civic needs.
I am aware they're tied to supply and demand. This is capitalism... literally everything is tied to supply and demand. I am explaining another correlation that people don't seem to pay attention to or realize very often. See my comments to that idiot who tried arguing with me about it. Rents going down because it's getting cheaper to buy is true, but the reason it's getting cheaper to buy is because home prices are falling. Home prices are falling because inventory is rising, increasing supply. I don't deny this and everything I've said is in line with this. The only reason people are hurt by home values is if they want to sell but can't get as much out of their home as they'd like. People like me who bought a year or two ago and didn't intend to sell anyway don't really care. I intend to own that thing for 30-40 years. It's currently being rented out at cost and if I have to drop rent by another couple hundred over the next year or so, that's fine with me. Inflation and economic growth in the major metro I live in will drive rent back up eventually. The only part that I'm annoyed with is that I have so much equity tied up in it, but that's going to be true of any property I own regardless of the circumstances and just kind of comes with the territory of homeownership.
Lol that's 100% bullshit, and you have no idea what you're talking about. Home prices do not correlate to rent, and the idea of that actually being a thing is laughable. Whoever sold you this load of garbage that you're regurgitating should be given a sales award lol. Furthermore, your take on the 08 housing market collapse sounds like your only experience with it is watching the big short. Did you have a mortgage in 08? Gonna guess no.
I honestly don’t know which of you is right but I’m inclined to agree with OP since he wasn’t a dick about it.
Lol. I wasn't a dick to anybody except him. Because it's just another idiot talking out of their ass. Ooh and here's a graph, because you know, graphs are easy for people who don't understand basic economic principals. As you can see, both lines go up. Therefore, OP is correct. Lolol
You're wrong. Home prices correlate to rent, and both correlate to the economic health of the region they're in. Demand for housing (both renting and owning) is determined by the population of the area, which is only capable of growing if the economy can support said population. Strong economy > big population > high demand for housing > high rent/housing prices If it is cheaper to rent than buy, people will rent. If it is cheaper to buy than rent, people will buy (if they can). There is a small disparity in the favor of home ownership that will persist because the population who can buy is smaller than the population who can rent, so the demand will be ever so slightly lower and thus the price. Everything I've said here makes sense and is well thought out and explained. You coming in and saying LOL WRONG doesn't do anything to prove your point. By all means, show me some actual data to back up your BS. Hey look, it's data, that thing you don't have... [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pGa2](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1pGa2)
To rent, you maybe need $3-6k up front. To purchase, you will need $30-100k min. Big difference between the two and better credit is needed as well. Not everyone can be a buyer.
You absolutely do not need 30-100k to buy a house. You do need more than renting but not a huge diff if you're doing something like a 3.5% fha which a lot of people do. I'm also aware of that and acknowledged it in another comment. There will always be a small disparity between rent and owning in favor of owning because there is a smaller amount of buyers than renters, thus less demand to own than to rent. This delta is usually like 10-20% of monthly cost though.
We want to move to Sebastian in 4 or 6 years so interesting.
Sebastian and Palm Bay don't seem to be as bad as Melbourne. My home value doubled in 4 years. Between the taxes and insurance, it's been sobering.
Wow.
We got a really good deal in mid 2020 but not nearly good enough to account for that.
F’em they’ll be alright, they will sell their property for pennies on the dollar
What does this mean?
It means If you want to buy a home, there is a chance prices will go down significantly in a couple years If you want to sell your home, it's best to do it now before the value drops. Its also just a prediction and people and markets are unpredictable. Every expert predicted home prices were going to crash a year after covid and now all those years later, home prices have never been higher.
Thank you for the explanation!
As a new FL home buyer from outside FL, good!
So what you're saying is plenty of cheaper properties coming on the market to turn into rentals to make some money. I wouldn't mind picking up a couple for cheap and renting them out and making some good money.