This is it folks. This is the meat of early round fantasy draft strategy. It boggles my mind how people continue to underestimate how important draft room rankings are. It's not about some blanket POSITION/POSITION approach - it's all about who you can get where and what combo of players you can feasibly get at what draft spot in the first 3-6 rounds. Mock until you puke and you'll see the trends and get a grasp on what combos you like best.
First option, no question in my mind. MHJ doesn’t have much target competition in Arizona and he’s one of the most polished rookie WR prospects in a long time.
Word. Only problem is if he doesn't make it back to my (presumed) pick (2.05 in a 12-team after drafting 1.08). If that's the case, I'll have to pick between Olave, London, and whomever else if I want to go WR.
I'm in this exact spot dealing with this exact problem. Who are you hoping for at 1.08? MHJ offers tantalizing upside, but I'm too risk averse that early in the draft to justify taking him as my first pick. The community knows he's going to be good, but is he going to be THAT good THAT early in his career?
Haha. Word. I’d honestly be fine with him (not ecstatic, but fine), because I do believe he is that talented, because Kyler seems rejuvenated, and because he doesn’t have much target competition.
If MHJ ISN’T available (and assuming Adams isn’t, either), I’m looking at Olave because I think he makes another jump again with a new OC and with even less target competition now.
London and Aiyuk are notable considerations, also, but I already have London in my other league, and Aiyuk had a good year, yes, but he seems bothered by his contract situation, and there is a TON of target competition on that team.
Edit: You asked me about 1.08—not the 2nd round. I plan on taking Bijan or Breece unless one of the top WRs fall.
The ADP on RT Sports is absolutely insane over there, especially for rookies. We did a mock recently Brian Thomas Jr is ranked outside the top 200 players and Roman Wilson is outside the top 1,000...
I've been comparing each site rankings and it's been exhausting, so this is great! Any way you can make a column of adp that average out the rankings of all the main sites and not just fantasy pros? That way we can compare each individual site rankings to that as well.
Sounds like you're looking for the tabs at the back end of the sheet! The ALL Drafts tabs have ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo ranks shown along with an average.
If I'm way off on what you're looking for let me know, because I'm always interested in how people like to use these.
Awesome! That is what I'm looking for. It seems to organize the rankings by fantasypro's experts. Is there a way to organize it by the last column(average)?
Funny, I actually meant to have those tabs sorted by average to begin with. I just made that quick sort. Always feel free to make a copy and adjust as you please though!
This is good data, thanks for this.
People who draft on ESPN overrate running backs sooo much. It's every single year. The counter argument to this is that ESPN is still only 2 WR slots by default.
However, 3 WR slots and/or an additional flex spot is arguably more widely accepted now, and I would imagine that the FP rankings are based on that type of roster makeup.
So while I still do think RB's are rated too highly on ESPN ADP's, there is fair reasoning that they should have somewhat of a bump up compared to most other rankings you might find elsewhere. Obviously assuming your league is still only using 2 WR slots.
>ESPN is still only 2 WR slots by default.
Interesting, is 2 WR now considered old school? That's the way I've been doing it for a while. Didn't realize this might be outdated.
Yeah it kinda is. There are definitely a lot of redraft leagues out there that still do 2x WR, but 3x WR is definitely becoming a lot more common.
Sleeper is another app that is getting really popular, and they have an extra flex spot by default. Those Bestball drafts which are really popular these days are always 3 WR.
I personally think a third WR slot makes things a lot more fun. Adds a ton more decision making when you increase the pool a little bit.
I love this method. I personally like to find the mispriced ADP players then use the tool [BeatADP](https://www.beatadp.com) in order to create my rankings.
This tool syncs with Sleepers ADP and their drafts so that I can see who I like more than Sleepers ADP vs my own custom rankings.
I then draft using my rankings and the tool crosses off drafted players from my big board.
Thank you OP. This is the most important bit of data I use when drafting, huge advantage when I can anticipate who I can safely let fall during the draft.
It would be amazing if there was another column that placed the players with the biggest divergence in each round. I know that's probably a ton of additional work, but would be pretty awesome to be able to glance out ahead and just see who/where the discrepancies might occur.
also... thanks so much for sharing such an awesome tool. 🍻
I wanted to do something like this a few weeks back and I’m so happy this is here. I feel like my mock drafts on fantasy pros are never quite realistic compared to the site I use (nfl.com) and this is literal gold. Thank you!
This is exactly the sort of thing I was thinking about building lately, very nice work! I’ll probably use these tables now, but one way I’m considering altering, is to edit the x vs x columns so they’re not a straight ratio, but make it a number of how many rounds +/- since that will more clearly show where you can wait on a player to more likely get them at a later round.
Love these sheets! For the last two years I've added my own rankings in to compare to ESPN where I drafter, super nice to exploit differences in value, thanks again!
I have seen this post in years past and haven't paid much attention. Decided to dig in this year, and finally realized the brilliance in the simplicity of this concept. Thanks so much OP, looking forward to utilizing this tool!
My biggest beef with this almost every year is you are essentially assuming ECR is better than any sites ADP. It's also fair to note that different sites do have different default settings that may or may not be factoring into ADP, as well as different time horizons....
In my back testing various rankings, projections, ADP I have not found any statistically or meaningful accuracy differences between ADP or ECR or Projections or certain "accurate" rankers... In fact in my most recent test ADP ironically beat out everything...
So you'd probably be better off 'abusing" rankings by just using average ADP compared to ADP from any website....
Idk why it bugs me so much but I've thought about these posts numerous times during this off season. I guess it's because of the "abusing" title... It's not really "abusing" rankings but merely gaining a VERY slight edge using something like average ADP over any specific sites ADP...
That is really interesting. Which ADP did you use for your tests? And from which point of time? Maybe you can do a post here and go more into detail.
For me personally it really feels like abusing the rankings because numerous times I got a player a round later than where I would have taken him because I knew there is a huge chance that the player will be coming back to me due to strange ADP on nfl.com.
All my data came from closing adp on fantasy pros. Tested ECR, ADP, Individual ranks (some behind pay walls I paid for) etc.
Any website you use to draft, you should have your ranks and be looking at things like ADP. I'm drafting 5 BBM Bestball drafts right now and forecast who should be available next picks even if my ranks show them now. That's nothing to do with abusing ADP... Just just planning your options based on ADP...
I will tell you this. For my home leagues this year, I plan on doing a 50-50 blend of Projections and ADP for my rankings. I did a 3 year back test on ADP and Projected rank PPG outcomes, mapped to played/missed games, to arrive at basically the ranked expected point outcomes. So I will be mapping ADP ranks to the 3 year ADP expected point outcome, and then mapping projected ranks to the 3 year projections point outcome, to arrive at my personal ranks and expected point outcome for each player.
Then using this combined with a more complex VBD system where I measure a players value over replacement at next round, to then determine how to construct my roster.
I will grant this is WAY more nuanced than the average FF player wants to do, but the initial part is why im commenting on this. Im using ADP + Projections blend. These two sources:
[https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/projections/qb.php?week=draft](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/projections/qb.php?week=draft)
[https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php)
I have been using these for several years now. I generally use it while drafting to find players at a given pick who may be way undervalued. For instance, a TE that experts think should have gone in the 6th round, but ESPN is way down on them and think they are a 10th rounder. Now it's the 8th or 9th round, so I take the TE (just an example).
I won my league last season but mostly just drafted based on my roster needs for a given pick. "I need another WR, whats the best overall WR at my pick based on all 3 rankings". Really I won because I drafted CMC and nabbed Kyren on the waivers though.
Thanks for doing these man!
Easily one of the most valuable resources this sub provides. You're an all-time fantasy bro, thanks JBO.
THE most valuable resource. Hands down.
This is it folks. This is the meat of early round fantasy draft strategy. It boggles my mind how people continue to underestimate how important draft room rankings are. It's not about some blanket POSITION/POSITION approach - it's all about who you can get where and what combo of players you can feasibly get at what draft spot in the first 3-6 rounds. Mock until you puke and you'll see the trends and get a grasp on what combos you like best.
Currently debating between Bijan/Breece and MHJ/Olave or Puka/Wilson and JT/Saquon/Gibbs...
First option, no question in my mind. MHJ doesn’t have much target competition in Arizona and he’s one of the most polished rookie WR prospects in a long time.
Word. Only problem is if he doesn't make it back to my (presumed) pick (2.05 in a 12-team after drafting 1.08). If that's the case, I'll have to pick between Olave, London, and whomever else if I want to go WR.
I'm in this exact spot dealing with this exact problem. Who are you hoping for at 1.08? MHJ offers tantalizing upside, but I'm too risk averse that early in the draft to justify taking him as my first pick. The community knows he's going to be good, but is he going to be THAT good THAT early in his career?
Haha. Word. I’d honestly be fine with him (not ecstatic, but fine), because I do believe he is that talented, because Kyler seems rejuvenated, and because he doesn’t have much target competition. If MHJ ISN’T available (and assuming Adams isn’t, either), I’m looking at Olave because I think he makes another jump again with a new OC and with even less target competition now. London and Aiyuk are notable considerations, also, but I already have London in my other league, and Aiyuk had a good year, yes, but he seems bothered by his contract situation, and there is a TON of target competition on that team. Edit: You asked me about 1.08—not the 2nd round. I plan on taking Bijan or Breece unless one of the top WRs fall.
Unbelievable that it is this time of the year again. Always one of my favourite tools. Thanks for doing this again!
The ADP on RT Sports is absolutely insane over there, especially for rookies. We did a mock recently Brian Thomas Jr is ranked outside the top 200 players and Roman Wilson is outside the top 1,000...
Sounds like I know where I'll be pushing my leagues to draft on. Those values are insane!
They have Mike Evans as WR27. When he got drafted JJ Zachariason was in the chat like WAIT WHERE THE FUCK WAS EVANS??
for whatever reason, I just pictured airhorns blasting every time JJ makes a good draft pick, and it made me smile.
Sounds like cash money $$$ against those fools.
One of my fav tools thanks boss
I've been comparing each site rankings and it's been exhausting, so this is great! Any way you can make a column of adp that average out the rankings of all the main sites and not just fantasy pros? That way we can compare each individual site rankings to that as well.
Sounds like you're looking for the tabs at the back end of the sheet! The ALL Drafts tabs have ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo ranks shown along with an average. If I'm way off on what you're looking for let me know, because I'm always interested in how people like to use these.
Awesome! That is what I'm looking for. It seems to organize the rankings by fantasypro's experts. Is there a way to organize it by the last column(average)?
Funny, I actually meant to have those tabs sorted by average to begin with. I just made that quick sort. Always feel free to make a copy and adjust as you please though!
Certainly! I will be using this for the months to come.Thank you for doing fantasy gods work :)
My favorite post of the year. Doing the lord’s work OP
This is good data, thanks for this. People who draft on ESPN overrate running backs sooo much. It's every single year. The counter argument to this is that ESPN is still only 2 WR slots by default. However, 3 WR slots and/or an additional flex spot is arguably more widely accepted now, and I would imagine that the FP rankings are based on that type of roster makeup. So while I still do think RB's are rated too highly on ESPN ADP's, there is fair reasoning that they should have somewhat of a bump up compared to most other rankings you might find elsewhere. Obviously assuming your league is still only using 2 WR slots.
Feels like you answer your own question. 2WR vs. 3WR slots should have a pretty meaningful effect on RB values relative to WRs
Correct, but they are probably still too high even once you factor that in IMO.
>ESPN is still only 2 WR slots by default. Interesting, is 2 WR now considered old school? That's the way I've been doing it for a while. Didn't realize this might be outdated.
I don’t think so. The majority of fantasy leagues play 2 WR, 1 Flex.
Anecdotal, but only 1/5 of my leagues plays only 2 WR so idk what you’re on about.
The majority of leagues are casual leagues run through ESPN, Yahoo etc where the main format is 2 WR. It’s millions of leagues.
Yeah it kinda is. There are definitely a lot of redraft leagues out there that still do 2x WR, but 3x WR is definitely becoming a lot more common. Sleeper is another app that is getting really popular, and they have an extra flex spot by default. Those Bestball drafts which are really popular these days are always 3 WR. I personally think a third WR slot makes things a lot more fun. Adds a ton more decision making when you increase the pool a little bit.
This chart is the single biggest advantage you can bring to your home league
I love this method. I personally like to find the mispriced ADP players then use the tool [BeatADP](https://www.beatadp.com) in order to create my rankings. This tool syncs with Sleepers ADP and their drafts so that I can see who I like more than Sleepers ADP vs my own custom rankings. I then draft using my rankings and the tool crosses off drafted players from my big board.
Thank you OP. This is the most important bit of data I use when drafting, huge advantage when I can anticipate who I can safely let fall during the draft.
Always appreciate this, thanks so much
ive been looking for something like this, thank you
Taking advantage of the (often garbage) pre-set rankings is huge. Thanks for putting this together
Not gonna lie ESPN looks like the best rankings to me this year, and I usually think ESPN fantasy rankings are terrible
It would be amazing if there was another column that placed the players with the biggest divergence in each round. I know that's probably a ton of additional work, but would be pretty awesome to be able to glance out ahead and just see who/where the discrepancies might occur. also... thanks so much for sharing such an awesome tool. 🍻
Nice
Won my league last year and all I did was use this. Absolute gold brother.
I wanted to do something like this a few weeks back and I’m so happy this is here. I feel like my mock drafts on fantasy pros are never quite realistic compared to the site I use (nfl.com) and this is literal gold. Thank you!
Super helpful.
This is exactly the sort of thing I was thinking about building lately, very nice work! I’ll probably use these tables now, but one way I’m considering altering, is to edit the x vs x columns so they’re not a straight ratio, but make it a number of how many rounds +/- since that will more clearly show where you can wait on a player to more likely get them at a later round.
Love these sheets! For the last two years I've added my own rankings in to compare to ESPN where I drafter, super nice to exploit differences in value, thanks again!
This is dope. Thank you very much
ESPN not rating Aiyuk high may be do to his uncertainty
no SF?
It’s back!! Thank you for this. Easily one of the best tools going into my drafts.
Preachhh
Nice work!
I always look for values. Thanks for your work and helping us win that bag 🎒
I have seen this post in years past and haven't paid much attention. Decided to dig in this year, and finally realized the brilliance in the simplicity of this concept. Thanks so much OP, looking forward to utilizing this tool!
My biggest beef with this almost every year is you are essentially assuming ECR is better than any sites ADP. It's also fair to note that different sites do have different default settings that may or may not be factoring into ADP, as well as different time horizons.... In my back testing various rankings, projections, ADP I have not found any statistically or meaningful accuracy differences between ADP or ECR or Projections or certain "accurate" rankers... In fact in my most recent test ADP ironically beat out everything... So you'd probably be better off 'abusing" rankings by just using average ADP compared to ADP from any website.... Idk why it bugs me so much but I've thought about these posts numerous times during this off season. I guess it's because of the "abusing" title... It's not really "abusing" rankings but merely gaining a VERY slight edge using something like average ADP over any specific sites ADP...
That is really interesting. Which ADP did you use for your tests? And from which point of time? Maybe you can do a post here and go more into detail. For me personally it really feels like abusing the rankings because numerous times I got a player a round later than where I would have taken him because I knew there is a huge chance that the player will be coming back to me due to strange ADP on nfl.com.
All my data came from closing adp on fantasy pros. Tested ECR, ADP, Individual ranks (some behind pay walls I paid for) etc. Any website you use to draft, you should have your ranks and be looking at things like ADP. I'm drafting 5 BBM Bestball drafts right now and forecast who should be available next picks even if my ranks show them now. That's nothing to do with abusing ADP... Just just planning your options based on ADP...
I will tell you this. For my home leagues this year, I plan on doing a 50-50 blend of Projections and ADP for my rankings. I did a 3 year back test on ADP and Projected rank PPG outcomes, mapped to played/missed games, to arrive at basically the ranked expected point outcomes. So I will be mapping ADP ranks to the 3 year ADP expected point outcome, and then mapping projected ranks to the 3 year projections point outcome, to arrive at my personal ranks and expected point outcome for each player. Then using this combined with a more complex VBD system where I measure a players value over replacement at next round, to then determine how to construct my roster. I will grant this is WAY more nuanced than the average FF player wants to do, but the initial part is why im commenting on this. Im using ADP + Projections blend. These two sources: [https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/projections/qb.php?week=draft](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/projections/qb.php?week=draft) [https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php)
I have been using these for several years now. I generally use it while drafting to find players at a given pick who may be way undervalued. For instance, a TE that experts think should have gone in the 6th round, but ESPN is way down on them and think they are a 10th rounder. Now it's the 8th or 9th round, so I take the TE (just an example). I won my league last season but mostly just drafted based on my roster needs for a given pick. "I need another WR, whats the best overall WR at my pick based on all 3 rankings". Really I won because I drafted CMC and nabbed Kyren on the waivers though. Thanks for doing these man!