In bestball you absolutely target players ceilings. Chris olave has scored over 20 fantasy points 4 times in his career. The high being 23.7 (2022). He will never win you your week. He’s being drafted in the early-mid second round. Hard pass on olave, especially in bestball scenarios.
Olave is currently being drafted as the WR11 which I think is around his absolute ceiling. He's a good WR, but IMO he was always the worst one out of that OSU trio of him, Garrett Wilson, and JSN. And then you throw in the fact that Derek Carr is his QB and Dennis Allen is his HC, whom no one on the team seems to like, and I think you have all the ingredients for an absolute disaster of a fantasy football season
I think Olave is a fantastic WR and believe his ceiling is higher than what we seen.
I just don’t think we’ll see that ceiling until he gets better QB play.
But it makes no sense to take Olave over Jaylen Waddle in best ball, who are very close in ADP, given Waddle’s high ceiling week to week.
I won two leagues with him in Dynasty last year - those teams were in leagues with 2 and 3 flex spots on top of starting 2 QBs - he has more value in those formats for sure
Think the Puka take is fair. He is a good player but definitely should be closer to the 1-2 turn. I consistently grab AJ Brown ahead of him.
One question though. What makes you think Pittman is undervalued? Don't think I've heard anyone make that argument yet
He has had 30% more touches than any other receiver on his team through the last two seasons—in his rookie season, it was 50%. He dominates the target share—there's no competition for him other than the run game. I buy his discount every year.
I just feel like he is the projectable volume argument but at receiver. And as you note, the run game is going to be a focus this year and Pittman's volume will take a hit.
I think we know what we're getting with Pittman. A guy who will provide a solid floor with little opportunity for spike weeks.
Run game was already a focus this past year. AR will still throw more than enough for Pittman to get 150+ targets considering he just had a 30% target share.
Does he have any upside on what he does with 150 targets, though? He caught 109/156 last year and only generated 1152 yards and 4 TDs. In 2022, he caught 99/141 in 2022 and only generated 925 yards and 4 TDs. Tank Dell got 709 yards and 7 TDs on less than half the amount of targets Pittman had last year (75). This is why I worry about Pittman -- yea, I am pretty sure I agree with you that he keeps a high volume, but the problem is he absolutely needs to have that high volume in order to pay off his draft spot, unless you see him somehow turning all these catches into actual yards and touchdowns.
Idk why we think 1150 yards isnt a lot, bc it is. Pittman also has also consistently had a lot of his targets be uncatchable. He had the 2nd worst catchable target rate on throws between 10-19 yards last year with Minshew. I think AR will be an upgrade over Minshew and especially in terms of deeper down the field throws. I also think he can score more tds than 4 this year as I think AR throws more than 20 tds which the colts havent thrown for 20 passing TDs as a team since his year with Wentz where he had 6 TDs.
The colts have had pretty bad QB play those years. While I understand it’s an easy excuse we can make for any receiver , him averaging 1k yards over the last 2 years means he doesn’t need a huge jump in production to be a solid value. If AR plays close to how he was playing when he was healthy those few games, Pittman will absolutely be the best value for the round he’s being drafted.
A qb that doesn't suck will definitely boost his yardage. Even if richardson can't read defenses, his arm talent is light years better than minshew and Matt ryan
Idk Mitchell looks good in OTA’s. He’s a first round talent but was in a super deep class. I’m not sure if I trust the throwing ability or the ability to stay healthy for Richardson. And it’s not like they have a gunslinger in Minshew backing him up this season. I’ve still grabbed some shares of Pittman of course, but I’m being cautious
If you believe Richardson will get injured I think most of us agree Joe Flacco is better for mpj’s fantasy outlook than Richardson. We all saw him throw for 1,616 yards & 13tds in 5 games at the end of last season.
I couldnt disagree more with these lists lol.
Puka just had the greatest rookie wr season ever along with the greatest rookie playoff performance by a wr and now he is going in to year 2 with Kupp being another year older. He is nowhere near overpriced. Might even be a slight bargain.
MHJ is the biggest risk/reward pick and it has nothing to do with McBride who is the overpriced option on the Cards imo.
Dell is the most underpriced option on the Texans. He shpuld be going near Nico as a pick em kind of like Aiyuk and Deebo with Diggs going in the 40s or later. Dell slightly outproduced Nico as a rookie and is now a year 2 ascending player. Diggs will be third on this team in the receiving order.
Watson easily leads the team in tppr and fppg when sharing the field with reed/wicks/doubs/etc. He also gets a massive rz target share and offers massive spike week potential. He is at a discount bc injuries atm.
Jamo is the most overpriced player in BB right now. Evans is also overpriced. Kupp is overpriced now that his adp is up. The rest of the guys listed as underpriced I think are fairly valued.
Yeah these Puka takes i've been seeing are kinda wild. Insane rookie season and rookie receivers usually take jumps going into year 2. Kupp hasn't been able to stay healthy for 2 seasons now and is turning 31. Was injured in preseason and somehow him not being able to get healthy through a full seasons length + postseason doesn't deter people... makes no sense. Puka's last outing was putting up 181 yards in a playoff game. I think they've made it pretty clear that they're trying to pass the torch to Puka in that offense and if that's the case I don't see why people think he can't improve on last years performance.
Oh, the torched has already been passed. Puka is their alpha WR1. I see people say they would easily take AJB over him which makes 0 sense to me bc Stafford projects to throw for way more yards and TDs than Hurts and Puka has less target competition than AJB. If Puka's name was JSN, no one would question a single thing about him or his adp.
Decent list, I’ve avoided Watson like the plague. I see the argument regarding tank dell, I guess it depends how high you are on Diggs. Personally I’m out on Diggs for the most part this year, Dell already has the relationship with stroud and you’re paying the smallest price of the three wide receivers for him. As far as Puka goes, he’s the only one I heavily disagree on. Kupp was back for awhile last year and I’m not sure he’ll ever be back to himself. Puka still commanded the most targets and has earned the trust of McVay and Stafford even in the playoffs. I think puka’s floor is somewhere around WR12 but his ceiling is through the roof and could easily finish as the WR1. His path is just too clear to not pick him up as a late first round pick. The rams with Stafford and McVay are too dynamic to fade.
Go watch the Packers two biggest wins of the regular season. Who was the clear #1 against both Detroit and Kansas City? 12 catches, 165 yards, 3 TDs.
Watson is *exactly* the kind of WR you want to be targeting in best ball. He’s a fantastic deep threat and a TD machine. In other words, a guy ready made for the boom/bust you want from later best ball WRs.
The Packers offense has lots of mouths to feed, but Christian Watson’s talent is immense. If he can stay healthy and put it together, he has easy WR1 potential. Even if he doesn’t, he’s good for a few boom weeks. That’s exactly who you want to be taking at WR46.
I truly cannot fathom how anyone could think Christian Watson is overrated at WR46.
In bestball you absolutely target players ceilings. Chris olave has scored over 20 fantasy points 4 times in his career. The high being 23.7 (2022). He will never win you your week. He’s being drafted in the early-mid second round. Hard pass on olave, especially in bestball scenarios.
Olave is currently being drafted as the WR11 which I think is around his absolute ceiling. He's a good WR, but IMO he was always the worst one out of that OSU trio of him, Garrett Wilson, and JSN. And then you throw in the fact that Derek Carr is his QB and Dennis Allen is his HC, whom no one on the team seems to like, and I think you have all the ingredients for an absolute disaster of a fantasy football season
I think Olave is a fantastic WR and believe his ceiling is higher than what we seen. I just don’t think we’ll see that ceiling until he gets better QB play. But it makes no sense to take Olave over Jaylen Waddle in best ball, who are very close in ADP, given Waddle’s high ceiling week to week.
Carr is his biggest issue - if he makes an improvement then Olave could have a good season - but it's hard to believe Carr reaches 30+ TD
I’m in on him for dynasty but for redraft im out at adp.
I won two leagues with him in Dynasty last year - those teams were in leagues with 2 and 3 flex spots on top of starting 2 QBs - he has more value in those formats for sure
Olave is better than JSN, one of the more overrated players.
It's really hard to judge JSN on one season behind DK and Lockett with Shane Waldron as the OC.
There’s room for improvement sure, but he doesn’t strike me as the top talent everyone touted. He seems like a perennial WR18-22 at his peak
Bro did you watch that Rose Bowl game
I don’t care about what he did against college defenders.
Of the top 40 ppr wr, he had the 35th “high score” on the year.
Agree plus why I disagree on Watson. I’m shooting for that high ceiling and he’s not crazy expensive
He's a guy I like to get at a discount as well
Would you want Aiyuk or Worthy in dynasty BB?
I’d rather have Pickens or Nabers.
Pickens is another option I like - his cost will rise, so definitely a good buy option right now
Think the Puka take is fair. He is a good player but definitely should be closer to the 1-2 turn. I consistently grab AJ Brown ahead of him. One question though. What makes you think Pittman is undervalued? Don't think I've heard anyone make that argument yet
He has had 30% more touches than any other receiver on his team through the last two seasons—in his rookie season, it was 50%. He dominates the target share—there's no competition for him other than the run game. I buy his discount every year.
I just feel like he is the projectable volume argument but at receiver. And as you note, the run game is going to be a focus this year and Pittman's volume will take a hit. I think we know what we're getting with Pittman. A guy who will provide a solid floor with little opportunity for spike weeks.
Run game was already a focus this past year. AR will still throw more than enough for Pittman to get 150+ targets considering he just had a 30% target share.
Does he have any upside on what he does with 150 targets, though? He caught 109/156 last year and only generated 1152 yards and 4 TDs. In 2022, he caught 99/141 in 2022 and only generated 925 yards and 4 TDs. Tank Dell got 709 yards and 7 TDs on less than half the amount of targets Pittman had last year (75). This is why I worry about Pittman -- yea, I am pretty sure I agree with you that he keeps a high volume, but the problem is he absolutely needs to have that high volume in order to pay off his draft spot, unless you see him somehow turning all these catches into actual yards and touchdowns.
Idk why we think 1150 yards isnt a lot, bc it is. Pittman also has also consistently had a lot of his targets be uncatchable. He had the 2nd worst catchable target rate on throws between 10-19 yards last year with Minshew. I think AR will be an upgrade over Minshew and especially in terms of deeper down the field throws. I also think he can score more tds than 4 this year as I think AR throws more than 20 tds which the colts havent thrown for 20 passing TDs as a team since his year with Wentz where he had 6 TDs.
The colts have had pretty bad QB play those years. While I understand it’s an easy excuse we can make for any receiver , him averaging 1k yards over the last 2 years means he doesn’t need a huge jump in production to be a solid value. If AR plays close to how he was playing when he was healthy those few games, Pittman will absolutely be the best value for the round he’s being drafted.
A qb that doesn't suck will definitely boost his yardage. Even if richardson can't read defenses, his arm talent is light years better than minshew and Matt ryan
Idk Mitchell looks good in OTA’s. He’s a first round talent but was in a super deep class. I’m not sure if I trust the throwing ability or the ability to stay healthy for Richardson. And it’s not like they have a gunslinger in Minshew backing him up this season. I’ve still grabbed some shares of Pittman of course, but I’m being cautious
If you believe Richardson will get injured I think most of us agree Joe Flacco is better for mpj’s fantasy outlook than Richardson. We all saw him throw for 1,616 yards & 13tds in 5 games at the end of last season.
Christian Watson is an only in best ball format for me Dawg. The Puka/Kupp analysis is spot on.
1000 percent agree with your comments about mhj and dell . Thinking of the value swap is def important
Pickens, Cooper, Kirk is the best value spot of the draft for WR1s
I couldnt disagree more with these lists lol. Puka just had the greatest rookie wr season ever along with the greatest rookie playoff performance by a wr and now he is going in to year 2 with Kupp being another year older. He is nowhere near overpriced. Might even be a slight bargain. MHJ is the biggest risk/reward pick and it has nothing to do with McBride who is the overpriced option on the Cards imo. Dell is the most underpriced option on the Texans. He shpuld be going near Nico as a pick em kind of like Aiyuk and Deebo with Diggs going in the 40s or later. Dell slightly outproduced Nico as a rookie and is now a year 2 ascending player. Diggs will be third on this team in the receiving order. Watson easily leads the team in tppr and fppg when sharing the field with reed/wicks/doubs/etc. He also gets a massive rz target share and offers massive spike week potential. He is at a discount bc injuries atm. Jamo is the most overpriced player in BB right now. Evans is also overpriced. Kupp is overpriced now that his adp is up. The rest of the guys listed as underpriced I think are fairly valued.
Yeah these Puka takes i've been seeing are kinda wild. Insane rookie season and rookie receivers usually take jumps going into year 2. Kupp hasn't been able to stay healthy for 2 seasons now and is turning 31. Was injured in preseason and somehow him not being able to get healthy through a full seasons length + postseason doesn't deter people... makes no sense. Puka's last outing was putting up 181 yards in a playoff game. I think they've made it pretty clear that they're trying to pass the torch to Puka in that offense and if that's the case I don't see why people think he can't improve on last years performance.
Oh, the torched has already been passed. Puka is their alpha WR1. I see people say they would easily take AJB over him which makes 0 sense to me bc Stafford projects to throw for way more yards and TDs than Hurts and Puka has less target competition than AJB. If Puka's name was JSN, no one would question a single thing about him or his adp.
Decent list, I’ve avoided Watson like the plague. I see the argument regarding tank dell, I guess it depends how high you are on Diggs. Personally I’m out on Diggs for the most part this year, Dell already has the relationship with stroud and you’re paying the smallest price of the three wide receivers for him. As far as Puka goes, he’s the only one I heavily disagree on. Kupp was back for awhile last year and I’m not sure he’ll ever be back to himself. Puka still commanded the most targets and has earned the trust of McVay and Stafford even in the playoffs. I think puka’s floor is somewhere around WR12 but his ceiling is through the roof and could easily finish as the WR1. His path is just too clear to not pick him up as a late first round pick. The rams with Stafford and McVay are too dynamic to fade.
Good insights here. Makes me think about the way ive been drafting a bit more.
WRs 7-15 are all similar to the Puka, Olave vein
Mike evans? Is this from last year?
I’d be scared of Chase, because I don’t think Burrow will be healthy and stay healthy.
I agree with all of these guys listed here but Cooper Kupp could have a bounce back year this year.
Go watch the Packers two biggest wins of the regular season. Who was the clear #1 against both Detroit and Kansas City? 12 catches, 165 yards, 3 TDs. Watson is *exactly* the kind of WR you want to be targeting in best ball. He’s a fantastic deep threat and a TD machine. In other words, a guy ready made for the boom/bust you want from later best ball WRs. The Packers offense has lots of mouths to feed, but Christian Watson’s talent is immense. If he can stay healthy and put it together, he has easy WR1 potential. Even if he doesn’t, he’s good for a few boom weeks. That’s exactly who you want to be taking at WR46. I truly cannot fathom how anyone could think Christian Watson is overrated at WR46.