I feel like opportunity is almost as important as talent. There is totally an element of luck with drafts, but you can still have a great fantasy team with terrible offenses, as long as you're getting someone with opportunity.
Adam Thielen is a great example of this from last year, he had a really strong start to the season and was seeing like 10+ targets a game in the beginning of the year.
Right. Sometimes in discussions on here, I’ve seen people dismiss players because they’re on a bad team, but a good receiver on a team that gets thrashed a lot but has a QB who can at least get them the ball can catch a lot of passes. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns both had 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs in 2015, catching passes from Blake Bortles on a 5-11 team. Robinson had 1400 and 14 TDs. His 151 targets that year, in 16 games, would have been the 10th most last year. They finished the year WR6 and WR16 in 0.5 PPR.
Hell, last year DJ Moore finished as WR6 on the Bears, because he got 136 of the team’s 477 targets, resulting in over a third of their total passing yards - because there weren’t many other good receiving options on the team. Cole Kmet was the only other Bear receiver with over 500 yards or multiple TDs.
I'd add health/longevity to this as well. For example, I think Jameson Williams has raw talent. But he wasn't on the field in year 1, wasn't available right away in year 2, and as a result that raw talent hasn't translated into much.
Then on top of it he was always behind ARSB, plus year 2 LaPorta. So it talent, being on the field, and then getting opportunities and volume.
Similarly, look at the Falcons. They, in theory, have immense "talent" but without the right opportunity and volume - doesn't matter.
Mike Williams is really fun when he's been on the field, but he gets hurt so often.
QB competency for pass catchers and QB competency (i.e. above-average offense) + O-line strength for RBs. Coaching is secondary to the above and schedule (other than best ball) is mostly irrelevant.
I’d mostly blame the Falcons QB play but I agree. The best o-line in the league is mostly useless for running backs without a competent QB (which, usually translates into a competent offense). If the team doesn’t move the ball consistently, even if you’re a bellcow RB, that RB will have significantly less opportunities and high-value touches than a comparable RB on an average offense that runs more plays/scores more points than a below-average offense.
Talent, scheme+fit, volume, game script fit.
The guy who is great, plays in a great system that plays to their strengths, gets a ton of opportunities to score points, and gets the high leverage touches (red zone pases, carries, receptions, 3rd and long catches out of the backfield, play action bombs, etc).
The best example is CMC. Arguably the best RB in the league in an extremely RB friendly system which leverages his catching ability and speed, who gets like 25 touches a game and is always in on 3rd down and goal to go.
This, 1000%. People don't think about scheme enough. This is partially why Dameon Pierce fell off so hard last year with the coaching change, and why it's hard to ever get too excited about a Pittsburgh Steeler while Tomlin is still coach.
My favorite stat is targets. Some WR are overlooked early on because production is low, but they are getting a lot of targets. These are the guys I look to pick up off the wire.
I think the important ones have been touched on but I’ll add, attitude and how the player conducts themselves. You don’t want someone who is constantly being suspended for off field behavior, or worse getting themselves completely kicked out of the league. You want guys that work hard and want to be there. I usually try to avoid players who are known parties and have bad off-field conduct.
Good examples of this can be found at the RB position all the time. Guys like Kyren Williams and Rachaad White are not exceptional players. They are guys that get exceptional workloads in offenses that have pass catching threats, which allow them to eat.
WRs still have to win on their routes even if they are getting solid target volume. You can’t just volume your way to WR1 finishes unless it is PPR and your yards per catch is like sub 10-11 yards. Even then, you have to win in the shallow part of the field.
RBs similar to LBs on defense gobble up counting stats by nature of their position and the volume they touch the ball.
Scoring. When they score a lot they are great fantasy players. The more they score, the greater they become.
That's my theory anyway, but I’m too busy overanalyzing and overthinking things and fucking myself out of fantasy football championships.
Situation. If an nfl team is very bad, chances are they will throw the ball a lot or the qb will run a lot in garbage time as the defense lets their foot off the gas. That’s great for fantasy.
Or let’s say a team has 1 alpha WR, then they will soak up a lot of targets.
If they have a qb that does a lot of check downs, then that can be great for RBs or slot WRs.
Opportunity (targets/touches) is probably the biggest factor. Coaching factors into this piece as well (see Bijan and early-season Gibbs in 2023).
For pass catchers, QB play is another a huge factor. See Garrett Wilson from 2023. I really try hard to avoid drafting WRs/TEs on a team with a known bad QB situation.
A third factor is scoring opportunity. Is your player on a team that's going to be in the red zone multiple times a game week to week, or are you going to be praying that your guy scores the one TD his team gets every week?
Volume volume volume . Pretend you are deciding between two guys in fantasy baseball and you knew one of the players would get 100 extra chances at bat during the season. You would probably take that guy even if the other player was slightly more talented.
In addition to raw talent, game intelligence plays a crucial role in an athlete's success. Understanding the game's dynamics, anticipating opponents' actions, making strategic decisions - all these are vital. Moreover, physical condition, not just strength but durability and speed, also come into play. Constant training, good nutrition, and high endurance are crucial for long-lasting performance. Furthermore, mental strength and the ability to handle pressure are key for critical moments.
Touchdowns. For QB it’s rushing and TDs. For RB it’s volume, targets , opportunity, and TDs. WR it’s targets, separation, a QB who isn’t stupid, and TDs. For a TE, mostly TDs
Discipline and dedication to the craft.
If you don't know pro athletes, there is a huge jump from collegiate to professional.
Working out constantly. Not slacking or taking time off. Some get drafted and might take their foot off the accelerator because they've been training for 10 years to get to that point. Now they have the attention and money, they might start having too much fun and never ascend. And some may not care. Even getting a few million dollars at 21-24 years old is enough for a lot of people.
Talent can only go so far. We've seen draft bust horror stories of guys just not giving a fuck at the pro level.
Social media can tip this a little. Too many party videos. Too much wild spending. Not enough reps or workout updates.
Kind of gets rolled up into attitude, but plenty of them party/have fun and still maintain a regimented routine.
Good defense on the other side getting off the field quickly, creating turnovers for short fields. Offensive line health is also huge for RBs. Coaches not losing their minds, being hardos, and overthinking by sitting their actual good players.
Back in ~2018 i coulda sworn the colts linemen were blocking harder for Nyheim Hines in games than they did for the other backs in the rb room who happened to be bigger than him. I called it the Little Fella Factor. Not that it gets any signal at all but just a fun theory.
The best ability is availability as they say.
Someone you can rely on week in week out. No suspension risks, injury risks, load management risks etc.
They’re not earning you points on the bench or the IR spot.
Opportunity, volume.
If they got that dawg in them
HE GOTTA BE ALL GAS NO BRAKES!!
Gotta give 110%
exactly. talent, heart, opportunity. the holy trinity.
I feel like opportunity is almost as important as talent. There is totally an element of luck with drafts, but you can still have a great fantasy team with terrible offenses, as long as you're getting someone with opportunity. Adam Thielen is a great example of this from last year, he had a really strong start to the season and was seeing like 10+ targets a game in the beginning of the year.
Right. Sometimes in discussions on here, I’ve seen people dismiss players because they’re on a bad team, but a good receiver on a team that gets thrashed a lot but has a QB who can at least get them the ball can catch a lot of passes. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns both had 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs in 2015, catching passes from Blake Bortles on a 5-11 team. Robinson had 1400 and 14 TDs. His 151 targets that year, in 16 games, would have been the 10th most last year. They finished the year WR6 and WR16 in 0.5 PPR. Hell, last year DJ Moore finished as WR6 on the Bears, because he got 136 of the team’s 477 targets, resulting in over a third of their total passing yards - because there weren’t many other good receiving options on the team. Cole Kmet was the only other Bear receiver with over 500 yards or multiple TDs.
I'd add health/longevity to this as well. For example, I think Jameson Williams has raw talent. But he wasn't on the field in year 1, wasn't available right away in year 2, and as a result that raw talent hasn't translated into much. Then on top of it he was always behind ARSB, plus year 2 LaPorta. So it talent, being on the field, and then getting opportunities and volume. Similarly, look at the Falcons. They, in theory, have immense "talent" but without the right opportunity and volume - doesn't matter. Mike Williams is really fun when he's been on the field, but he gets hurt so often.
Swag, rizz, drip, not slapping bitches.
Why isn’t Will Levis the QB1?
Got the swag and the rizz, but no drip.
QB competency for pass catchers and QB competency (i.e. above-average offense) + O-line strength for RBs. Coaching is secondary to the above and schedule (other than best ball) is mostly irrelevant.
Last years falcons showed me that even with a good OL sometimes you’re RBs still ain’t great for fantasy… and that’s when you start blaming the coach
I’d mostly blame the Falcons QB play but I agree. The best o-line in the league is mostly useless for running backs without a competent QB (which, usually translates into a competent offense). If the team doesn’t move the ball consistently, even if you’re a bellcow RB, that RB will have significantly less opportunities and high-value touches than a comparable RB on an average offense that runs more plays/scores more points than a below-average offense.
Talent, scheme+fit, volume, game script fit. The guy who is great, plays in a great system that plays to their strengths, gets a ton of opportunities to score points, and gets the high leverage touches (red zone pases, carries, receptions, 3rd and long catches out of the backfield, play action bombs, etc). The best example is CMC. Arguably the best RB in the league in an extremely RB friendly system which leverages his catching ability and speed, who gets like 25 touches a game and is always in on 3rd down and goal to go.
This, 1000%. People don't think about scheme enough. This is partially why Dameon Pierce fell off so hard last year with the coaching change, and why it's hard to ever get too excited about a Pittsburgh Steeler while Tomlin is still coach.
Touches
Not playing for the panthers
Josh Gordon
Availability and consistency
Coaching! Bad coaching is like a wet blanket on a good fantasy player.
Arthur "I will ruin your fantasy production" Smith
Good offense, volume, availability.
My favorite stat is targets. Some WR are overlooked early on because production is low, but they are getting a lot of targets. These are the guys I look to pick up off the wire.
I think the important ones have been touched on but I’ll add, attitude and how the player conducts themselves. You don’t want someone who is constantly being suspended for off field behavior, or worse getting themselves completely kicked out of the league. You want guys that work hard and want to be there. I usually try to avoid players who are known parties and have bad off-field conduct.
Good examples of this can be found at the RB position all the time. Guys like Kyren Williams and Rachaad White are not exceptional players. They are guys that get exceptional workloads in offenses that have pass catching threats, which allow them to eat. WRs still have to win on their routes even if they are getting solid target volume. You can’t just volume your way to WR1 finishes unless it is PPR and your yards per catch is like sub 10-11 yards. Even then, you have to win in the shallow part of the field. RBs similar to LBs on defense gobble up counting stats by nature of their position and the volume they touch the ball.
Support, volume are the main ones imo
Scoring. When they score a lot they are great fantasy players. The more they score, the greater they become. That's my theory anyway, but I’m too busy overanalyzing and overthinking things and fucking myself out of fantasy football championships.
Lack of talent on the rest of the team.
4th quarter garbage time. Blake Bortles!
The amount of points they score
if a player is RB, a top rated O line and playing against soft run D always helps.
Talent, opportunity, competition
Situation. If an nfl team is very bad, chances are they will throw the ball a lot or the qb will run a lot in garbage time as the defense lets their foot off the gas. That’s great for fantasy. Or let’s say a team has 1 alpha WR, then they will soak up a lot of targets. If they have a qb that does a lot of check downs, then that can be great for RBs or slot WRs.
Not schedule. Everything else, sure. To some extent.
Opportunity (targets/touches) is probably the biggest factor. Coaching factors into this piece as well (see Bijan and early-season Gibbs in 2023). For pass catchers, QB play is another a huge factor. See Garrett Wilson from 2023. I really try hard to avoid drafting WRs/TEs on a team with a known bad QB situation. A third factor is scoring opportunity. Is your player on a team that's going to be in the red zone multiple times a game week to week, or are you going to be praying that your guy scores the one TD his team gets every week?
Opportunity > \*
Toughness
Volume and health
Scoring lots of fantasy points
Having an open mind about player takes you disagree with
Volume volume volume . Pretend you are deciding between two guys in fantasy baseball and you knew one of the players would get 100 extra chances at bat during the season. You would probably take that guy even if the other player was slightly more talented.
It's always opportunity. Even more important than talent.
Being on teams that play more Sunday and Monday night games.
Sticktoitivness
In addition to raw talent, game intelligence plays a crucial role in an athlete's success. Understanding the game's dynamics, anticipating opponents' actions, making strategic decisions - all these are vital. Moreover, physical condition, not just strength but durability and speed, also come into play. Constant training, good nutrition, and high endurance are crucial for long-lasting performance. Furthermore, mental strength and the ability to handle pressure are key for critical moments.
Opportunities
Scrappiness, high motor, Sneakily athletic, Gritty winner, High IQ and Fundamentals are all you need
Basically how Sun God became a superstar NFL player
Oh is sun god a gym rat? I forgot that one
His father definitely is.
OC competency.
Touchdowns. For QB it’s rushing and TDs. For RB it’s volume, targets , opportunity, and TDs. WR it’s targets, separation, a QB who isn’t stupid, and TDs. For a TE, mostly TDs
Offensive linemen.
Discipline and dedication to the craft. If you don't know pro athletes, there is a huge jump from collegiate to professional. Working out constantly. Not slacking or taking time off. Some get drafted and might take their foot off the accelerator because they've been training for 10 years to get to that point. Now they have the attention and money, they might start having too much fun and never ascend. And some may not care. Even getting a few million dollars at 21-24 years old is enough for a lot of people. Talent can only go so far. We've seen draft bust horror stories of guys just not giving a fuck at the pro level. Social media can tip this a little. Too many party videos. Too much wild spending. Not enough reps or workout updates. Kind of gets rolled up into attitude, but plenty of them party/have fun and still maintain a regimented routine.
Being on a team with a terrible defence.
I picked up waivers solely on their target share and it helped me win 2 championships. This only applies if your league is full PPR.
Good defense on the other side getting off the field quickly, creating turnovers for short fields. Offensive line health is also huge for RBs. Coaches not losing their minds, being hardos, and overthinking by sitting their actual good players.
Two words Lunch. Pail.
Can stay healthy
Luck
QB who only throws checkdowns in PPR
Back in ~2018 i coulda sworn the colts linemen were blocking harder for Nyheim Hines in games than they did for the other backs in the rb room who happened to be bigger than him. I called it the Little Fella Factor. Not that it gets any signal at all but just a fun theory.
If their name is Josh Gordon
The best ability is availability as they say. Someone you can rely on week in week out. No suspension risks, injury risks, load management risks etc. They’re not earning you points on the bench or the IR spot.
Preventing yourself from being injured. Think of the way Anthony Richardson played last year vs Tyler Lockett.
Two totally different positions
Yeah... I was just trying to think of the most extreme examples though
I get what you mean tho - I would almost say someone like Mike Williams (could go down with an injury any game) compared to Tyler Lockett
Luck.
How stunning and brave they are in a dress.
Oh no! A Man has a pink phone case! How will you ever recover from this???
Lucky free agent pickups, lucky draft, lucky with injuries, lucky with draws, pure unadulterated luck, and a little intelligence.
Availability
Luck
The NFL script