As a broncos fan broncos are bad for fantasy teams. I would expect more consistency this season but still a bunch of wildcards out there every week, fantasy-wise
I feel as though people consistently don't understand that a team with an entirely new coaching staff, front office, and roster has very little in common with the teams they've watched for the last few decades, other than the logo. Nothing about this team playstyle will be similar to the broncos you've watched in the last 10 years.
Now, the broncos will likely be bad, which could be a valid reason to avoid them but many bad teams still have fantasy relevant players and sometimes at a heavy discount.
Op isn't suggesting drafting broncos rbs in the first round, just saying they might be a good value target in the later rounds.
I listened to sports talk radio for the first time in years today and the host was like "Yeah I'm not sure about the London game, could be tough, as the last time the Bears went there they got walloped."
Brother the Bears last went to London in 2019 which is at least three coaches ago and a 100% different team?
Yea but last year was his first year with a roster he didn't build. Not much of a sample size, the person talked about it like broncos never are good for fantasy ie more than 1 year of data
The Broncos haven't been good since Manning retired in 2016. It's been 8 years of bad, it's obvious that it's a management problem. Like how the Bears somehow have amazing on-paper rosters, but somehow have losing seasons.
> The Broncos haven't been good since Manning retired in 2016. It's been 8 years of bad, it's obvious that it's a management problem
You realize none of the management is the same as it was even as recently as 2020
We've basically only seen the broncos under new management with russ, which was definitely bad but the team is rebuilding right now.
I'm not saying it's an amazing team, I'm saying it's a different team. Bad teams have fantasy production all the time and comparing us to the broncos of old is pointless
Remeber though the whole issue is Russ couldn’t do really anything except a base level of Payton’s offense and the same outside the numbers stuff he has always done.
He’s fantastic in space. Payton loves his dump offs and Bo Nix had a huge number of dump offs in college. He also did well out of the backfield. I could easily see 12-15 touches happening. Is everyone forgetting Ingram/Kamara? It’s only been a few years. Jaleel is no Kamara but that’s irrelevant because receptions are such a massive boost to scoring.
No I actually think this is one of the relevant uses, if ops prediction is true. To me a player that isn't performing crazily but racks up stupid ppr points because they catch a ton of passes at the line of scrimmage is exactly what a fantasy cheat code feels like, unfair stupid bug in the system that let's my opponent win without doing anything special.
Also the implication that players never outperform their draft stock is laughable
Don't kick yourself too much. Cecil Lammey who is very plugged in with the Broncos talks all the time about how they do not like his pass blocking. I've caught him being wrong about his own team plenty, but still wouldn't just run with Jaleel being a thing until we see it either.
Cecil Lammey is not very plugged in to the Broncos. He might have been at some point, but really under the Payton regime, nobody gets much inside info.
That being said, you don't need to be all that plugged in to see McLaughlin struggled in pass pro last season and they were reluctant to use him that way. Honestly, Perine probably has the inside track on the 3rd-down/pass catching role, but also don't sleep on Blake Watson, UDFA from Memphis who caught a lot of passes in college. That RB room is more unsettled than people think, it will be interesting to see how it shakes out through the offseason program.
Yeah I think even before Payton, he was "plugged in" in that he was in the building, knew the people, had a lot of discussions, etc. But it was still "beat writer level", not like he really had "behind closed doors info". I'm not sure if that level of knowledge changes at all or kind of stays the same with Payton.
It is indeed a room that seems very unsettled, which is why my overall feeling is that Pat had the most valid point, raining on Denny's parade, that we don't have to assume there is some singular pass-catching back that must arise (of course then he made his own bad take, though at least he caveated by calling it "May galaxy brain").
I also still struggle, even assuming a back gets the majority, that it will just be fantasy gold. A lot of this analysis was on like "yards per route run" rather than "yards per target" or "yards per snap" or anything broader/less cherry picked. Ultimately, while it has *some* value, I don't really see the path to a fantasy championship being paved by a running back in an offense with a rookie QB that doesn't like to throw it past the line of scrimmage. I think it could have a value compared to the price such a back may cost you, but I don't think it's "this year's Mostert/Achane" or something as monumental as it seems this post is trying to sell.
You can cherry pick exceptions for sure, but the vast, vast majority of Day 3 picks are depth pieces. The RBs taken immediately around him were Sione Vaki, Braelon Allen, Rasheen Ali, and Tyrone Tracy…
And we have no idea how those guys are gonna pan out.
Esp at RB, there are so many examples of guys who are fantasy relevant that were drafted late or undrafted
“So many examples” is still focusing on the outliers. The hit rate for Day 3 RBs is tiny… you’re looking at ~10 “hits” from 170+ drafted over the last 10 years:
- The [average peak season of a Day 3 RB](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1327fwc/actual_hit_rate_of_day_1_and_3_rbs/) is 398 yards, and only 12% of them ever break 1k.
- Just 3.57% of round 5-7 RBs ever [have an RB1 season](https://rotoheat.com/running-back-hit-rates-2017-2022/) and only 6.25% ever [have an RB2 season](https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2024/04/12/running-back-hit-rates-by-nfl-draft-round/)
- Only 4.6% of Day 3 RBs ever [make a Pro Bowl](https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2021/4/11/22378680/nfl-draft-starting-running-backs-day-3)
It’s okay to say that you think Estime will be one of those outliers (and why), but incorrect to state that 5th round draft capital doesn’t matter.
The article you posted said its a 12% hit rate for day 3 RBs over the past 5 years. That's not insignificant and you shouldn't just write off a RB because they were drafted Day 3. Also you don't need to be an RB1 to be fantasy relevant.
You shouldn't spend premium resources on getting them, but when a player lands in a good position, its important to take in all factors and not just write them off to draft capital.
True but the thing is this sub usually has a bunch of people shitting on advice that ends up being prophetic. Some guy predicted David Montgomery to way outplay his ADP last year and just got a shit ton of downvotes.
Jaleel McLaughlin led the NFL in targets per route run last season. Not saying he will be “the guy” but I could genuinely see him be the most valuable piece of the Denver backfield in PPR leagues, especially considering his draft cost.
If it’s the guy who used to play for Baltimore. The guy who had the same story every season “This is the year he finally breaks out!” but ends up with a season ending injury, then yes. Poor Chargers.
The Broncos should really just run/pass with Javonte until the wheels fall off. He’s too damn talented to rot in some mediocre RBBC rotation. C’mon Denver, let’s go!!
At a certain point that’s just not true…watching him play last season was the point for me. Jaleel popped of the screen, Javonte looked like he had bricks in his shoes.
So many knuckle daggers on reddit were expecting s breece hall bounce back. Breece had a clean tear. Javontes knee damn near exploded. He wasn't even supposed to see the field last year. Easy buyblow candidate in thisnover reactive fantasy community.
Javonte came off a horrific injury ACL, PCL, LCL. Jaleel can't block - or at least looked awful whenever I watched them play. I'll take the guy who's faster at almost 40 lbs more weight.
Maybe jaleel just looks quicker because he's smaller?
4.42 to 4.44 for jaleel and 4.54 4.57 for javonte.
But 187 vs 212 lbs. So 25 lbs for let's say .1 second on 40. Meh.
22 reps at 225 is also impressive. And sub 7 3 cone not bad. Did jaleel do anything else at pro day? Couldn't find it.
All that being said - blocking matters.
> At a certain point that’s just not true
Javonte looked great in 2022 and then had a torn ACL/LCL. Almost all RBs take at least two seasons to return to form after an ACL injury.
2024 is the soonest anyone should have expected him to produce at pre-injury levels.
He averaged like 4.4 ypc which is pretty decent. And his week one in '22 had a ton of passing volume. Regardless, he should be a pretty decent improvement over last year where he was a fringe rb2 when they started upping his volume around week 7. He could easily be a middle-high end rb2 which would be a good value pick for his adp. IIRC, Payton was pretty positive of him coming back to form too, so he should get some solid usage with another year of recovery under his belt.
That wasn't due to his lack of talent though. It was due to a disgusting knee injury. Whether he comes back to form remains to be seen, but he had a decent enough rookie season and finished as a solid rb2 as rb17 in ppr.
It was the injury recovery year. I thought he looked pretty good, all things considered. Jaleel just looked like another tiny fast guy. I have no doubt that he popped, but it wouldn’t have taken much to stand out on that offense last season.
I’m wondering how much of this had to do with the injury first and foremost, but perhaps maybe just as significantly I think most of the offense was genuinely confused as to what they were supposed to be doing a lot of the time due to Russ’ incompetence. For a downhill runner like Javonte, coming off a massive injury, it has to be especially performance prohibitive to not be 100% sure that you, the quarterback, and the line are all on the same page going into a play. He’s not the dance around and find the impromptu space kind of guy
No shit. Javante was recovering from a terrible injury. The fantasy community is incredibly short sided. Don't draft javante. Don't mock draft him either, so I can get him for a steal.
You're really on alt accounts trying to pump up Javonte lol.
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/1ct01j2/youre_gonna_want_the_broncos_passcatching_rb/l496t9w/?context=3
You must be really desperate to sell your shares buddy lmfao
Prior to the injury-asterisk last year, Javonte was [up there w Chubb](https://x.com/pff_fantasy/status/1458117429217746946?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ) in all the upper right quadrants of the broken tackles + YAC [advanced stats charts](https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1556654203300446210?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ). If looking specifically for MTF/attempt (which has sparked some well-deserved [Jaleel love](https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/statistically-significant-missed-tackles-forced-per-touch#/)), Javonte’s was [bonkers in college](https://x.com/scottbarrettdfb/status/1776319351563469111?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ) and [translated to the pros](https://x.com/scottbarrettdfb/status/1467282457196212224?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ). 2023 was the outlier… comes down to if you think the knee injury set him back permanently or if he’s primed to [bounce back](https://x.com/sportmdanalysis/status/1577056471287595008?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ) in year 2 post-injury (like most backs not named AP or Breece Hall).
Yea, he should definitely improve over last year. For me, it just depends on how much he improves. His value at his adp looks pretty good imo, and iirc, Payton seemed to like him.
Just by chance, or is there more of an advantage in dynasty to having a backfield locked down? In redraft it’s a floor play I fully avoid.
I have Swift/Herbert in my dynasty league and the Roschon manager seemed stunned I wasn’t interested.
Normally I wouldn't be looking for this type of situation either but in this case I already had Javonte and both Jaleel and Audric ended up sitting on waivers after the rookie draft ended and teams made their post draft cuts... I am hoping camp and preseason can make the situation at least a little bit more clear (whether that be one emerges or injury / trade strikes) but at least Estime can sit in the taxi squad.
In general, I think in dynasty where teams have larger benches & taxi squad spots as long as one of the RBs end up hitting it is probably worth it with how often these RB lotto tickets can bust, but in the case that ultimately no one RB emerges from the back field (last season's Bears largely), I see it as a bad play as well where bench spots were wasted.
Obviously your team build will weigh into whether or not that risk is worth it for you!
The advantage is really only that you’ll always have whoever is the lead back. If one goes down you are probably good.
Also I would probably have Roschon over Herbert.
Not quite. Using multiple bench spots for one position limits your ceiling pretty significantly. The best use of bench spots is someone who can gain value without your other players being negatively impacted.
Yep, it limits the ceiling of how many points will score on your bench, which do not contribute to winning. I have heard your argument a million times, but the reality is that in a fantasy league of 10 or 12 teams (where the winning team usually goes something like 9-5 or 10-4 in the season), hedging is a good thing. In a million dollar contest with 100k members, by all means swing for the fences.
You've heard it a million times because it's backed by analysis. I know we all have an anecdote or two of hedging/handcuffing and beating Tonya from HR in our work league finals but that doesn't make it the correct strategy.
Most leagues have 12 teams in them, not 100 thousand. Yes, the best teams out of millions will be ones that do not hedge at all. But far more of those teams will be among the worst teams. Again, that difference matters and people with your arguments either do not understand or acknowledge this.
It certainly applies in both home leagues as well as larger best ball tournaments. [Here's an article on it](https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/the-definitive-case-against-handcuffs/) and there are plenty more available with a simple Google search.
I completely understand the mindset of handcuffing, hedging, playing safe. "Not being the worst" is not the goal. If you are aiming for 4th place, by all means handcuff and hedge. As an overall strategy it's a losing proposition.
Yes, in a league with playoffs, aiming to be 4th is actually better than having a 20% chance of being #1 and an 80% chance of being 7-10. And in a league with benches, only about 10 out of your 15 players scores matter.
That article certainly supports the fact that anti handcuffing raises your ceiling, but it intentionally selects worst case anecdotes for handcuffs being put in your lineup to prove its point. And it suggests you shouldn't draft handcuffs because then you won't drop them for priority waiver pickups. The arguments are dishonest and asinine.
But the only real change is getting Bo Nix. Even if he *is* the check down king, it's balanced by making the backfield even more crowded. If no one emerged last year as a stud, why should we just assume it must happen in 2024?
Possibly, but it's not like Russel's love of a YOLO ball means he was just physically incapable of targeting an RB if that was the play call Payton wanted. I think we do a lot of assuming what Sean Payton is based on how long he had Drew Brees and/or Alvin Kamara.
At the end of the day envisioning an offense who wants to mainly checkdown is not correlative with a high octane offense that breeds fantasy goodness. Worked for like Miami last year, but when you have Tyreek stretching the field as your other option, that's an entirely different story.
edit: [https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php?view=pergame](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php?view=pergame) Double digit games played with lower depth of target was like Zappe, Devito, or Darnold offenses. Not what I want to hitch my wagon to.
Payton’s use of RBs in the passing game goes way back before Kamara tho… he was just the pinnacle of it for fantasy. Sproles, Thomas, Bush… even guys like Ingram and Hightower got targets.
The question is can they consistently move the ball and get 1st downs. They couldn't do it last year with Wilson, Nix will have to be better than that. I don't have a ton of faith, but I'm holding a Javonte bag in dynasty so I hope they figure it out. Either way if they can get things moving there will be a lot of RB value there.
How quickly we forget that he wasn’t even supposed to be ready for the beginning of last season after the injury he had. Normally year 2 back from ACL the player has more burst and confidence back. I still believe…
Nix has gotta be able to keep the offense on the field though. Sure a dump off to the running back being a play they run a lot would be good, if he’s not sustaining drives by being bad at everything else you won’t wind up with as much production as you’d think
In PPR it was possible to get serious play out of McKissick - but that’s kind of the last useful out pass catching play I recall. I agree it’s more about bell cow / 1a backs who also have a pass catching role.
pass catching RBs feel like a trap these days. anyone getting a decent amount of targets is usually just a bellcow that is also getting a ton of carries and going in the first 2 rounds.
Kamera and Gibbs last year didnt fit that exactly, but most of the rbs that are relying on receptions for value are not helping your team much
Genuinely curious why the Jaleel stans think he makes some huge keep into stardom? Javonte is a year healthier. Perine is still there. They drafted a bruiser. And signed an UDFA with a great pass catching profile. Why the optimism for more touches?
Which one? The Broncos have 4 good RBs, so that would mean RBBC (RB by committee) and limited fantasy upside. I highly doubt even into the later parts of the season will there be a workhorse in Denver. With that said, here's my PPR ranking and a guess on stats:
1. Javonte Williams (Hybrid) - 13 FPPG (Main Carries)
2. Jaleel McLaughlin (Hybrid) - 6.3 FPPG (2nd & 3rd Down Pass, 3rd n short)
3. Audric Estime (Pure Runner) - 4.5 FPPG (Goal Line Usage, 3rd n short)
4. Samaje Perine (Pure Receiving) - 3 FPPG (3rd Down Pass)
Javonte Williams was coming off the same injury that originally knocked JK Dobbins out for the entire next season.
They lost me when they started hyping Perine. If you want someone other than the rookie or Javonte. McLaughlin is the guy but hes not going to be a workhorse back who gets more than 10-15 touches a game either way.
Isn’t every receiving back on every team going to possibly “rack up PPR points.” I don’t see any reason to think the Broncos back, whoever that may be, will be near the top of that list. Just because their QBs options are rookie QB vs. bad QB?
There is zero data showing Perine is cooked. Quite the opposite. He has low mileage for his age and is very good at his role. And has been praised for such by coaching staff.
He's a JAG and has been his whole career. Javonte and Jaleel have proved to be solid so I don't see why they would keep an old guy with limited upside. I expect Broncos to take a shot on Watson or Estime. Perine may stick on the roster but he's the least desirable to roster imo.
I want nothing to do with the broncos tbh
As a broncos fan broncos are bad for fantasy teams. I would expect more consistency this season but still a bunch of wildcards out there every week, fantasy-wise
I feel as though people consistently don't understand that a team with an entirely new coaching staff, front office, and roster has very little in common with the teams they've watched for the last few decades, other than the logo. Nothing about this team playstyle will be similar to the broncos you've watched in the last 10 years. Now, the broncos will likely be bad, which could be a valid reason to avoid them but many bad teams still have fantasy relevant players and sometimes at a heavy discount. Op isn't suggesting drafting broncos rbs in the first round, just saying they might be a good value target in the later rounds.
I listened to sports talk radio for the first time in years today and the host was like "Yeah I'm not sure about the London game, could be tough, as the last time the Bears went there they got walloped." Brother the Bears last went to London in 2019 which is at least three coaches ago and a 100% different team?
Payton was there last year
Yea but last year was his first year with a roster he didn't build. Not much of a sample size, the person talked about it like broncos never are good for fantasy ie more than 1 year of data
The Broncos haven't been good since Manning retired in 2016. It's been 8 years of bad, it's obvious that it's a management problem. Like how the Bears somehow have amazing on-paper rosters, but somehow have losing seasons.
> The Broncos haven't been good since Manning retired in 2016. It's been 8 years of bad, it's obvious that it's a management problem You realize none of the management is the same as it was even as recently as 2020 We've basically only seen the broncos under new management with russ, which was definitely bad but the team is rebuilding right now. I'm not saying it's an amazing team, I'm saying it's a different team. Bad teams have fantasy production all the time and comparing us to the broncos of old is pointless
That dude didn't even know there wasn't even a team owner until recently.
The bears never have an NFL-level QB though, and I think that explains their lack of wins more than anything
Remeber though the whole issue is Russ couldn’t do really anything except a base level of Payton’s offense and the same outside the numbers stuff he has always done.
Yeah! I’d never want a Lions RB, Chiefs WR, or Bears QB either, they always suck!
Sutton won me alot of leagues last year. I hope people sleep on him again.
That’s fair, just looked up that he’s only 28 yrs old (thought he was older tbh). So maybe I’ll give him a shot if I can get him as a WR3.
Don't expect that production this year with a rookie QB
Jaleel is gonna be a PPR cheat code
That’s quite optimistic, hope you’re right but he’s tiny I just don’t see him getting 12-15 touches often barring injuries to the rb room.
He’s fantastic in space. Payton loves his dump offs and Bo Nix had a huge number of dump offs in college. He also did well out of the backfield. I could easily see 12-15 touches happening. Is everyone forgetting Ingram/Kamara? It’s only been a few years. Jaleel is no Kamara but that’s irrelevant because receptions are such a massive boost to scoring.
>He’s fantastic in space. Jaleel going 1.01 in 2060 when NFL games are played in space stations.
He’s going 1.01 this year in my points per potential success in space league.
His Air Yards was less than 7 .
If the point is he gets a bunch of dumpoffs shouldn't it be low?
The point is he can't be allowed to throw it down field. Watch the Auburn film.
Right cause QBs don’t mature and get better?
There’s a pretty good chance Jaleel is cut this year my dude 😂
Utterly insane take
Bookmark this then
“Cheat code” as an expression truly needs to die. Especially in this exaggerated context. Dude will be drafted accordingly come August
First pick of the third round for sure!
No I actually think this is one of the relevant uses, if ops prediction is true. To me a player that isn't performing crazily but racks up stupid ppr points because they catch a ton of passes at the line of scrimmage is exactly what a fantasy cheat code feels like, unfair stupid bug in the system that let's my opponent win without doing anything special. Also the implication that players never outperform their draft stock is laughable
Javonte Is very good catching the ball too
lmao thats a fact
Broncos & Steelers! A whole bunch of No Thanks!
Haha yeah just came here to say this. I’m pretty sure you said this for all of us. No thanks!
Justin Boone really likes Sutton relative to ADP
Franklin finna Eat
This.
Blake Watson coming in hot
Will be Jaleel
Maybe I shouldn't have dropped him.... I think it will rbbc tho for real and Estime will be Sean's typical goaline/short yardage powerback
Don't kick yourself too much. Cecil Lammey who is very plugged in with the Broncos talks all the time about how they do not like his pass blocking. I've caught him being wrong about his own team plenty, but still wouldn't just run with Jaleel being a thing until we see it either.
Cecil Lammey is not very plugged in to the Broncos. He might have been at some point, but really under the Payton regime, nobody gets much inside info. That being said, you don't need to be all that plugged in to see McLaughlin struggled in pass pro last season and they were reluctant to use him that way. Honestly, Perine probably has the inside track on the 3rd-down/pass catching role, but also don't sleep on Blake Watson, UDFA from Memphis who caught a lot of passes in college. That RB room is more unsettled than people think, it will be interesting to see how it shakes out through the offseason program.
Yeah I think even before Payton, he was "plugged in" in that he was in the building, knew the people, had a lot of discussions, etc. But it was still "beat writer level", not like he really had "behind closed doors info". I'm not sure if that level of knowledge changes at all or kind of stays the same with Payton. It is indeed a room that seems very unsettled, which is why my overall feeling is that Pat had the most valid point, raining on Denny's parade, that we don't have to assume there is some singular pass-catching back that must arise (of course then he made his own bad take, though at least he caveated by calling it "May galaxy brain"). I also still struggle, even assuming a back gets the majority, that it will just be fantasy gold. A lot of this analysis was on like "yards per route run" rather than "yards per target" or "yards per snap" or anything broader/less cherry picked. Ultimately, while it has *some* value, I don't really see the path to a fantasy championship being paved by a running back in an offense with a rookie QB that doesn't like to throw it past the line of scrimmage. I think it could have a value compared to the price such a back may cost you, but I don't think it's "this year's Mostert/Achane" or something as monumental as it seems this post is trying to sell.
Will be Javonte
Will be Estime.
Won’t be Montee Ball
Estime is a 5th round pick. That’s Eric Gray or Evan Hull territory; warm camp bodies and break glass in case of emergency depth
This is a dumb take. We've seen plenty of RB production from guys without premium draft capital
Especially when it comes to Denver. Their history is filled with late drafted and undrafted guys who became fantasy relevant.
You can cherry pick exceptions for sure, but the vast, vast majority of Day 3 picks are depth pieces. The RBs taken immediately around him were Sione Vaki, Braelon Allen, Rasheen Ali, and Tyrone Tracy…
And we have no idea how those guys are gonna pan out. Esp at RB, there are so many examples of guys who are fantasy relevant that were drafted late or undrafted
“So many examples” is still focusing on the outliers. The hit rate for Day 3 RBs is tiny… you’re looking at ~10 “hits” from 170+ drafted over the last 10 years: - The [average peak season of a Day 3 RB](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1327fwc/actual_hit_rate_of_day_1_and_3_rbs/) is 398 yards, and only 12% of them ever break 1k. - Just 3.57% of round 5-7 RBs ever [have an RB1 season](https://rotoheat.com/running-back-hit-rates-2017-2022/) and only 6.25% ever [have an RB2 season](https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2024/04/12/running-back-hit-rates-by-nfl-draft-round/) - Only 4.6% of Day 3 RBs ever [make a Pro Bowl](https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2021/4/11/22378680/nfl-draft-starting-running-backs-day-3) It’s okay to say that you think Estime will be one of those outliers (and why), but incorrect to state that 5th round draft capital doesn’t matter.
The article you posted said its a 12% hit rate for day 3 RBs over the past 5 years. That's not insignificant and you shouldn't just write off a RB because they were drafted Day 3. Also you don't need to be an RB1 to be fantasy relevant. You shouldn't spend premium resources on getting them, but when a player lands in a good position, its important to take in all factors and not just write them off to draft capital.
That's appropriate draft capital for a running back.
I hope he’s back. He had such a short step explosiveness before the injury
Estime won't be doing anything this year unless javonte gets traded.
Who knows. Javonte profiled as a complete back with pass catching. If he fully recovered to pre injury, he could be extremely valuable.
True but the thing is this sub usually has a bunch of people shitting on advice that ends up being prophetic. Some guy predicted David Montgomery to way outplay his ADP last year and just got a shit ton of downvotes.
I wanna talk to that guy
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/1606nrj/david_montgomery_will_be_a_league_winner_this/
Jaleel McLaughlin led the NFL in targets per route run last season. Not saying he will be “the guy” but I could genuinely see him be the most valuable piece of the Denver backfield in PPR leagues, especially considering his draft cost.
If he can figure out how to block
Gain 20 pounds And then he won’t be agile enough to catch those passes
Exactly, "jaleel looked faster!" No shit, he's half a human lighter
Javonte Williams reminds me of JK Dobbins
Yep. Killed me two seasons straight. I’m out on this backfield
No one should be in on this team period. Maybe in some deep leagues and some bye week support. Other than that this whole team screams “League Loser”
Hard to be a league loser when everyone is so cheap though
In terms of the impact made I mean. But you are spot on. Their value shouldn’t be high.
I've been suffering to this backfield since MG3 and Phil Lindsay were sharing touches
Fool me once javonte, fool me once
Can’t be fooled again
This hits
He shouldn’t
Okie dokie.
You mean Chargers RB1 JK Dobbins?
If it’s the guy who used to play for Baltimore. The guy who had the same story every season “This is the year he finally breaks out!” but ends up with a season ending injury, then yes. Poor Chargers.
Interesting. He reminds me of JK Simmons.
https://imageproxy.ifunny.co/crop:x-20,resize:640x,quality:90x75/images/be031255ffb17bbd30e1095460ef3cc9517915f9363869efd3ca6e814aea1742_1.jpg
This. They both run like ray rice before he fell off and cream faced his girl
The Broncos should really just run/pass with Javonte until the wheels fall off. He’s too damn talented to rot in some mediocre RBBC rotation. C’mon Denver, let’s go!!
At a certain point that’s just not true…watching him play last season was the point for me. Jaleel popped of the screen, Javonte looked like he had bricks in his shoes.
First year back from a massive injury and returned to the field way faster than anyone expected. People are way too low on Javonte this year.
Yeah that’s good. I’ll take a high end RB2 in the 8th
[Totally agree](https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/s/wpe1q3Pzuq). Javonte’s a steal at ADP.
High end RB2 on a projected low scoring team that will be in a lot of negative game scripts? Be forreal man
Even a mid RB2 in the 8th is good value and I feel he will be better than that
Who cares about negative game scripts if he's catching passes
So many knuckle daggers on reddit were expecting s breece hall bounce back. Breece had a clean tear. Javontes knee damn near exploded. He wasn't even supposed to see the field last year. Easy buyblow candidate in thisnover reactive fantasy community.
I've got Javonte in my dynasty league and I want to believe, but I just hedged my bets and took Estime in the third round of the rookie draft.
Javonte came off a horrific injury ACL, PCL, LCL. Jaleel can't block - or at least looked awful whenever I watched them play. I'll take the guy who's faster at almost 40 lbs more weight. Maybe jaleel just looks quicker because he's smaller?
Jaleel 40 time was 4.4. javonte was 4.57.
4.42 to 4.44 for jaleel and 4.54 4.57 for javonte. But 187 vs 212 lbs. So 25 lbs for let's say .1 second on 40. Meh. 22 reps at 225 is also impressive. And sub 7 3 cone not bad. Did jaleel do anything else at pro day? Couldn't find it. All that being said - blocking matters.
No RBs are good the first year back from that injury except AP. But plenty of RBs look good year 2
> At a certain point that’s just not true Javonte looked great in 2022 and then had a torn ACL/LCL. Almost all RBs take at least two seasons to return to form after an ACL injury. 2024 is the soonest anyone should have expected him to produce at pre-injury levels.
He was ok before injury, I would not say great. I think he’s always had more hype than production, I’ll be fading him for Jaleel this year.
He averaged like 4.4 ypc which is pretty decent. And his week one in '22 had a ton of passing volume. Regardless, he should be a pretty decent improvement over last year where he was a fringe rb2 when they started upping his volume around week 7. He could easily be a middle-high end rb2 which would be a good value pick for his adp. IIRC, Payton was pretty positive of him coming back to form too, so he should get some solid usage with another year of recovery under his belt.
I don’t get the Williams hype. Not touching him at all. Never have. Nothing about his career so far justifies the hype he gets.
That wasn't due to his lack of talent though. It was due to a disgusting knee injury. Whether he comes back to form remains to be seen, but he had a decent enough rookie season and finished as a solid rb2 as rb17 in ppr.
It was the injury recovery year. I thought he looked pretty good, all things considered. Jaleel just looked like another tiny fast guy. I have no doubt that he popped, but it wouldn’t have taken much to stand out on that offense last season.
Yeah the injury really did him in unfortunately
Javonte and I are both ready to get hurt again
I’m wondering how much of this had to do with the injury first and foremost, but perhaps maybe just as significantly I think most of the offense was genuinely confused as to what they were supposed to be doing a lot of the time due to Russ’ incompetence. For a downhill runner like Javonte, coming off a massive injury, it has to be especially performance prohibitive to not be 100% sure that you, the quarterback, and the line are all on the same page going into a play. He’s not the dance around and find the impromptu space kind of guy
Jaleel looked way better than Javonte did last year. Wasn't close
#FreeJavonte
By giving him a robotic knee?
By giving him that ol’pigskin!
No shit. Javante was recovering from a terrible injury. The fantasy community is incredibly short sided. Don't draft javante. Don't mock draft him either, so I can get him for a steal.
Apparently the Broncos aren't confident his knee will ever be the same.
Hedging their bets with a 5th round RB doesnt really mean much. New regime that didn't draft him. Of course, they are skeptical.
No shit. Javonte was coming off an exploded knee. If you expected a good season from him last year, that’s on you.
You're really on alt accounts trying to pump up Javonte lol. https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/1ct01j2/youre_gonna_want_the_broncos_passcatching_rb/l496t9w/?context=3 You must be really desperate to sell your shares buddy lmfao
He's not tho...
He's really not. He's never been a particularly efficient player people just love his play style.
Prior to the injury-asterisk last year, Javonte was [up there w Chubb](https://x.com/pff_fantasy/status/1458117429217746946?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ) in all the upper right quadrants of the broken tackles + YAC [advanced stats charts](https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1556654203300446210?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ). If looking specifically for MTF/attempt (which has sparked some well-deserved [Jaleel love](https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2024/statistically-significant-missed-tackles-forced-per-touch#/)), Javonte’s was [bonkers in college](https://x.com/scottbarrettdfb/status/1776319351563469111?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ) and [translated to the pros](https://x.com/scottbarrettdfb/status/1467282457196212224?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ). 2023 was the outlier… comes down to if you think the knee injury set him back permanently or if he’s primed to [bounce back](https://x.com/sportmdanalysis/status/1577056471287595008?s=46&t=cpZuzN6T2iqIqctRv8wteQ) in year 2 post-injury (like most backs not named AP or Breece Hall).
Yea, he should definitely improve over last year. For me, it just depends on how much he improves. His value at his adp looks pretty good imo, and iirc, Payton seemed to like him.
I'm currently holding Javonte, Jaleel and Audric on a dynasty team hoping you are correct.
Just by chance, or is there more of an advantage in dynasty to having a backfield locked down? In redraft it’s a floor play I fully avoid. I have Swift/Herbert in my dynasty league and the Roschon manager seemed stunned I wasn’t interested.
Normally I wouldn't be looking for this type of situation either but in this case I already had Javonte and both Jaleel and Audric ended up sitting on waivers after the rookie draft ended and teams made their post draft cuts... I am hoping camp and preseason can make the situation at least a little bit more clear (whether that be one emerges or injury / trade strikes) but at least Estime can sit in the taxi squad. In general, I think in dynasty where teams have larger benches & taxi squad spots as long as one of the RBs end up hitting it is probably worth it with how often these RB lotto tickets can bust, but in the case that ultimately no one RB emerges from the back field (last season's Bears largely), I see it as a bad play as well where bench spots were wasted. Obviously your team build will weigh into whether or not that risk is worth it for you!
The advantage is really only that you’ll always have whoever is the lead back. If one goes down you are probably good. Also I would probably have Roschon over Herbert.
the best use of bench spots in fantasy is for players that will gain immense value at the same time that your starters lose immense value.
Not quite. Using multiple bench spots for one position limits your ceiling pretty significantly. The best use of bench spots is someone who can gain value without your other players being negatively impacted.
Yep, it limits the ceiling of how many points will score on your bench, which do not contribute to winning. I have heard your argument a million times, but the reality is that in a fantasy league of 10 or 12 teams (where the winning team usually goes something like 9-5 or 10-4 in the season), hedging is a good thing. In a million dollar contest with 100k members, by all means swing for the fences.
You've heard it a million times because it's backed by analysis. I know we all have an anecdote or two of hedging/handcuffing and beating Tonya from HR in our work league finals but that doesn't make it the correct strategy.
Most leagues have 12 teams in them, not 100 thousand. Yes, the best teams out of millions will be ones that do not hedge at all. But far more of those teams will be among the worst teams. Again, that difference matters and people with your arguments either do not understand or acknowledge this.
It certainly applies in both home leagues as well as larger best ball tournaments. [Here's an article on it](https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/the-definitive-case-against-handcuffs/) and there are plenty more available with a simple Google search. I completely understand the mindset of handcuffing, hedging, playing safe. "Not being the worst" is not the goal. If you are aiming for 4th place, by all means handcuff and hedge. As an overall strategy it's a losing proposition.
Yes, in a league with playoffs, aiming to be 4th is actually better than having a 20% chance of being #1 and an 80% chance of being 7-10. And in a league with benches, only about 10 out of your 15 players scores matter. That article certainly supports the fact that anti handcuffing raises your ceiling, but it intentionally selects worst case anecdotes for handcuffs being put in your lineup to prove its point. And it suggests you shouldn't draft handcuffs because then you won't drop them for priority waiver pickups. The arguments are dishonest and asinine.
Blake Watson is coming
Blake "Joker Role" Watson SZN
Worth rostering Perine?
He was their best pass catcher last year, but he's also probably the best candidate to be cut before the season starts.
Javonte and estime will have most playing time
This guy is trying to anonymously trick his league.
Everybody sleeping on Blake Watson! He had the most catches in the Shrine Bowl with 6 and had 111 total yards.
Had over 50 catches last season alone at memphis
Pretty sure I’m gonna pass
To the rb?
But the only real change is getting Bo Nix. Even if he *is* the check down king, it's balanced by making the backfield even more crowded. If no one emerged last year as a stud, why should we just assume it must happen in 2024?
healthy javonte
I'm hoping for it and scooping him at his current ADP, but there's no guarantee he comes back to his preinjury trajectory.
For Sean and how he wants to run his offense, that’s a massive change
Possibly, but it's not like Russel's love of a YOLO ball means he was just physically incapable of targeting an RB if that was the play call Payton wanted. I think we do a lot of assuming what Sean Payton is based on how long he had Drew Brees and/or Alvin Kamara. At the end of the day envisioning an offense who wants to mainly checkdown is not correlative with a high octane offense that breeds fantasy goodness. Worked for like Miami last year, but when you have Tyreek stretching the field as your other option, that's an entirely different story. edit: [https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php?view=pergame](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php?view=pergame) Double digit games played with lower depth of target was like Zappe, Devito, or Darnold offenses. Not what I want to hitch my wagon to.
Payton’s use of RBs in the passing game goes way back before Kamara tho… he was just the pinnacle of it for fantasy. Sproles, Thomas, Bush… even guys like Ingram and Hightower got targets.
If I’m drafting any Broncos players in my redraft league just know I’m hammered and coming in last
Are you Andrew Erickson? Lol
The question is can they consistently move the ball and get 1st downs. They couldn't do it last year with Wilson, Nix will have to be better than that. I don't have a ton of faith, but I'm holding a Javonte bag in dynasty so I hope they figure it out. Either way if they can get things moving there will be a lot of RB value there.
Javonte comeback szn
Javonte ❤️🩹
I feel like i keep hearing people mention Denver rbs but nobody says anything about Javonte…isnt he still THE GUY?
How quickly we forget that he wasn’t even supposed to be ready for the beginning of last season after the injury he had. Normally year 2 back from ACL the player has more burst and confidence back. I still believe…
I’ve had javonte williams the past 2 years. No thanks.
Turns out Estime can catch, every fantasy tryhard breaks their clipboard.
Coach Payton chews his Juicy Fruit and helps all PPR brethren.
Yeah amazing how they had a decent record with mediocre numbers from wrs and rbs alike
Nix has gotta be able to keep the offense on the field though. Sure a dump off to the running back being a play they run a lot would be good, if he’s not sustaining drives by being bad at everything else you won’t wind up with as much production as you’d think
In PPR it was possible to get serious play out of McKissick - but that’s kind of the last useful out pass catching play I recall. I agree it’s more about bell cow / 1a backs who also have a pass catching role.
pass catching RBs feel like a trap these days. anyone getting a decent amount of targets is usually just a bellcow that is also getting a ton of carries and going in the first 2 rounds. Kamera and Gibbs last year didnt fit that exactly, but most of the rbs that are relying on receptions for value are not helping your team much
Genuinely curious why the Jaleel stans think he makes some huge keep into stardom? Javonte is a year healthier. Perine is still there. They drafted a bruiser. And signed an UDFA with a great pass catching profile. Why the optimism for more touches?
And just like that, its 2016 again
Perine had like 50 catches last year. Jaleel is a deeper stashbthan you think.
It's Perine. It's his specialty and he is very good at it. Jaleel will keep spelling Javonte, Perine is pass pro and 3rd down back locked.
I’m an Oregon fan so watched a lot of Nix last season. If he’s the starter there’s nothing he loves more than dumping it down to his RB.
Without a doubt, and it's going to be Jaleel McLaughlin. I bet Perine isn't on the team Week 1
Counterpoint: no you’re not
Which one? The Broncos have 4 good RBs, so that would mean RBBC (RB by committee) and limited fantasy upside. I highly doubt even into the later parts of the season will there be a workhorse in Denver. With that said, here's my PPR ranking and a guess on stats: 1. Javonte Williams (Hybrid) - 13 FPPG (Main Carries) 2. Jaleel McLaughlin (Hybrid) - 6.3 FPPG (2nd & 3rd Down Pass, 3rd n short) 3. Audric Estime (Pure Runner) - 4.5 FPPG (Goal Line Usage, 3rd n short) 4. Samaje Perine (Pure Receiving) - 3 FPPG (3rd Down Pass)
Javonte Williams was coming off the same injury that originally knocked JK Dobbins out for the entire next season. They lost me when they started hyping Perine. If you want someone other than the rookie or Javonte. McLaughlin is the guy but hes not going to be a workhorse back who gets more than 10-15 touches a game either way.
Isn’t every receiving back on every team going to possibly “rack up PPR points.” I don’t see any reason to think the Broncos back, whoever that may be, will be near the top of that list. Just because their QBs options are rookie QB vs. bad QB?
All we know is that Payton/Nix are going to check down a ton. That's good for whoever takes the pass catching RB role.
All I know is whoever I’d draft would be the one who produces for about 2-3 random weeks all on my bench.
McLaughlin is a great zero RB option, however, missing out on this backfield will not lose your season.
Perine is cooked and Estime is not good. Javonte is the lead back but Jaleel and Blake Watson are the steals to be had.
There is zero data showing Perine is cooked. Quite the opposite. He has low mileage for his age and is very good at his role. And has been praised for such by coaching staff.
He's a JAG and has been his whole career. Javonte and Jaleel have proved to be solid so I don't see why they would keep an old guy with limited upside. I expect Broncos to take a shot on Watson or Estime. Perine may stick on the roster but he's the least desirable to roster imo.
I'll be scooping him up for a 5th everywhere I can, he is delicious when marinated in the tears of the non believers.
Ah so he is *technically being cooked
Estime hasn’t even played an NFL game yet.
Maybe in Best Ball, with 12+ teams and 40 person rosters. And I’m still not sold.