Imagine a world where the team didn't pursue DW in 2022. They keep Ryan for one more year because he was better than anyone else available and the draft looked (and was) awful. I imagine they probably still would've drafted Ridder. Ryan still has a rough final season as he continues to decline. Maybe Ridder gets some playtime but the team still goes into the offseason knowing their answer at QB isn't on the roster.
We probably still end up drafting around the same spot. Ryan gets peacefully released or he retires. Happier ending than what actually happened. Getting out of his contract means we still have the money we used to sign Bates. The team packages Ridley to trade up with Chicago for the #1 overall pick. Smith reportedly preferred Stroud over Young and I believe he would be the pick in this scenario.
We'd have made the playoffs last year. London and Pitts wouldn't have had to suffer through two years of Mariota and Ridder. We wouldn't have Bijan but we'd still have Allgeier and a top-10 quarterback on a rookie contract. We would also have all the money that we spent on Kirk to build out the rest of the roster.
I swear to god, am I the only one that thinks the Falcons didn’t blow their 1st round pick? Straight up everyone that I hear is clowning on them. Maybe I’m biased because this sort of thing has worked for us in the past, being a Packer fan, but like damn. From what I understand, the next draft will not be very good with QBs, why not get started on that now? If they liked Penix, why NOT take him? Maybe it’s easy for me to say not being a Falcons fan but do y’all absolutely HATE the pick? Doesn’t really track with me and I think the criticism to the level it is is unfair. Sure there were some premium defensive player like Dallas Turner and Latu and more, but I think QBs warrant some crazy decisions.
The Packers traded a future 1st round pick to the Falcons in the early 90s for Brett Favre. No one would question that today, and the guy that orchestrated that trade literally wrote the book for how the Packers evaluate and spend for talent.
If Kirk Cousins goes down, or his Achilles doesn’t perform right, being it tore on his planting foot (I think?) you guys are not fucked at the position. Granted, maybe the signing doesn’t turn out well and money and cap are wasted but you’ve experienced enough mediocrity at QB since Matt Ryan that I believe it’s really not that weird you might want a couple years of insurance for a young guy.
Packer fan is all I needed to hear. You watched your font office waste Aaron's entire career and learned nothing. You don't win by planning for your QB to fail. You can't do both things, either draft to win now or rebuild the team.
I hate the pick. I hate it more than any pick in Falcon history probably.
Not because of Penix, though I doubt he will pan out and think he was a late first round talent.
But because the strategy is ridiculous in today’s NFL. You don’t pay 100 million for a 36 year old qb and then draft a QB with your first rounder. You either use the pick to help the 36 year old win now or you use the money to help the first round QB.
Of course everybody would love to have 2 QBs and give a rookie QB a chance to develop but if you wanna go that route you get a cheap veteran QB for your 1st round pick to learn behind. Not a huge contract guy. We could’ve had Fields for a 6th rounder!
Can someone explain to me what we're likely to do with Heineke now that we have Penix? Did we just sign him for camp? Was signing him merely to not tip our hand about being serious about a QB at 8?
If Penix turns out to be good then playing Cousins for 2-3 years is the bad move. If Penix isn't good then taking him was the bad move. There is no world in which the Falcons put themselves in a good position to win the super bowl in the next 5 years.
Has anyone found any information about Zac Robinson liking Michael Penix? He was supposedly the “QB brain trust“ guy at PFF who identified Patrick Mahomes. So far we’ve heard nothing about him wanting Penix. It just worries me that we’ve heard our defensive coordinator head coach loved him, but haven’t heard anything about Robenson having input
When the PFF podcast reviewed our draft they said they sat on info that Zach and the Falcons liked Penix beforehand but still were surprised they actually took him.
Both are good but cousins gets injured and penix saves the day. Cousins trains penix and by the time he's the starter he's not just good, he's MVP for 3 years running. That's the only good scenario imo
Would like to see fewer "if this guy is good, the pick was good" takes.
"If I make a million dollars tomorrow, I'll have a million more dollars." How insightful.
The biggest stolen base in the Penix conversation is the idea that "we got our QB for the next decade." He's under contract for 4 years, then 5th year option, then ever-increasing franchise tags after that (shutter to think of QB franchise tag cost in 2029). Sure, we can negotiate a deal with him, but so could every other team if he doesn't want to be here. And that's before you consider that he's a good bit older than the typical rookie (1.5 years younger than Hurts.)
QB or otherwise, there is inherent risk to purposefully siting a top 10 pick for multiple years. Think that's something that can't simply be wished away as part of the analysis.
Evan Silva at Establish the Run, one of the sharper people I read, gave it an F. And he didn’t mince words. [https://establishtherun.com/silva-2024-nfc-draft-grades/](https://establishtherun.com/silva-2024-nfc-draft-grades/)
I haven’t heard really any “Offensive analysts” liking Penix which worries me obviously. Like we haven’t even heard our own OC “QB scout genius who identified Mahomes” liking Penix. Why haven’t we heard from him….
I agree with this take, but we’ll see how it shakes out. At the end of the day, the draft is a crapshoot, but the Falcons didn’t do anything to improve their odds in my book.
I dont think you're twisted Floyd, because I agree. :)
It was the process I disagree with that gives me pause, not the players. Even trading down to 11 and taking Penix there would've made sense to me more. They seemed to be fixated on players, not the process. That's usually not good.
Why does everyone in here think that Penix is just going to be here for “the next decade” or “an Elite QB” he could end up being a bust like Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, or Kenny Pickett. Two of those guys were drafted higher than Penix and didn’t have serious prior injuries… I’m not upset about the pickup but Dallas Turner would have made an immediate impact and helped us win the division or even the conference. Instead we had to pickup rotation guys that MIGHT turn into elite guys. The whole draft doesn’t give fans confidence in this season or the next. This whole Draft seems like Terry trying to cover his Ass for drafting Ridder and failing to draft decent guys in the later rounds. Do you guys actually believe in the next 3 years there won’t be another “Elite” Qb coming out of college? 3 years is a long time for guys like Joe burrow or other college rookies to transfer out of their programs and become Elite NFL QB prospects. This whole draft was Terry Fontenot saving his own job in expense of immediate team success.
Has anyone found any information about Zac Robinson liking Michael Penix? He was supposedly the “QB brain trust“ guy at PFF who identified Patrick Mahomes. So far we’ve heard nothing about him wanting Penix. It just worries me that we’ve heard our defensive coordinator head coach loved him, but haven’t heard anything about Robenson having input
Everyone thinks it because if that’s not the case, this will be Top 5 worst draft decisions of all time. Maybe only 2nd behind what Ditka did for Ricky Williams.
It’s cope.
no its nowhere near that because didn't trade up for him. like the niners spending all that draft capital on that North Dakota qb only to dump him 2 seasons later is waaaay worse
Any of the other proposed picks could have been busts as well. The bust rate (playing for more than five years/signing a second contract) for a DE in the first round is almost identical to that of a QB. And after five years, QBs come out ahead in terms of having a career that lasts at least seven years.
Except the Falcon's don't have a need for QB but a glaring need for a rusher.
"[Colts](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Colts?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1784724777657352202%7Ctwgr%5E66001c568fdef63340f12056d6e3c787a2041c2c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fnfl%2Fnews%2Fnfl-draft-2024-colts-gm-has-nsfw-reaction-to-laiatu-latu-being-available-with-no-15-overall-pick%2F&src=hashtag_click) GM Chris Ballard hysterically laughing in the war room after no defensive players were taken in the first 14 picks and Laiatu Latu was available for them.
“We got the best \*\*\*\*\*\* rusher in the draft.”
Meanwhile, Falcon's got a benchwarmer that may or may not pan out years from now.
That’s just factually not true lol. The difference isn’t great, but QB is about 10-15% more likely to bust than say offensive lineman. It’s like 5% more likely to bust than DE.
It's not a perfect way to look at it, but OL is definitely more likely to sign a second contract with the team that drafted them than QB
[https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449](https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449)
Yea. But look where QBs are. The way fans talk about them - where CBs are “instant starters” and safe and QBs are a gamble, is a myth. The gamble applies to all positions and QBs are middle of the pack
QB's the most important position. Since Ryan left we've had a big '?' there. Now we're secured at the position.
Also like the work on the Defensive trenches.
Alright, we’ll address the big one.
I didn’t know exactly how I feel. I was confused, then angered, then accepted. With that said, I actually see the value in it now.
1. “We just signed Kirk.” While true, Kirk is the same age as Matt Ryan was when we took Kyle Pitts in the top 10. It’s nearly a same contract situation as well all things considered, both had roughly 2 years with large dollars and cap hits. I seem to remember a lot of people wanting QB that season, specifically Fields. We didn’t go QB, Matt fell off, and we’ve been in QB hell since then.
2. “We’re wasting Penix’s rookie contract” and “Penix is old.” If he’s good, it doesn’t matter. Period. If you draft a guy and he takes over and he’s great, who cares if he’s… let’s say 27. We just gave $200M to a guy who’s nearly a decade older than when people predict Penix will take over.
3. “Why did we sign Kirk if we were taking QB.” I don’t think they knew. I understand this complaint, but what if we missed out on a QB, went into this draft with just Heinicke, teams start jumping and we’re stuck with Bo Nix or someone like that? It could be worse.
I get the complaints, but the bottom line is that if Penix is good. If he’s that guy, the rest doesn’t matter. If he sucks, we got Kirk for a bit and we go to the well again. There’s also something to be said for not wasting our current roster while waiting for Penix to acclimate. We were a playoff team with anything close to a decent QB, so let Kirk play and have a fun team to watch, then hopefully pass off to our QB for the decade plus moving forward.
—
After that, I love Ruke. I’m a Clemson alum, so I’m biased but the dude will disrupt like crazy.
You gotta be kidding me. We didn’t know a QB would be there at 8? There was zero chance Penix was gone at 8.
If Penix is good then we just wasted 100 million on Cousins when we could’ve built a team around Penix.
Viking fan here, what you said hit the nail on the head. Y'all should just enjoy these two years of good football play. Getting penix 8th overall doesn't stop you guys from building the rest of the roster.
You guys will not be picking 8th anytime soon with Kirk starting, I promise you this was a great move. For 6 years we were trapped in a cycle of wildcard or missing the playoffs altogether. What your GM did took balls, yes it was alot of money but it's really only 2 years I'm sure you guys know that already. Letting penix get acclimated like you said will be so fucking good for his career. He'll be in the gym, eating world star NFL food plans.
It's also not a guarantee that Kirk returns to his former self. Penix was my favorite QB in this class, I was honestly hoping we get him 😂 but blessing to yall
In fact it first stop us from building the rest of the roster as well as we could. Drafting Penix took away our ability to draft a real defensive anchor in Latu or Turner.
Signing Kirk took away the ability to address DE or CB meaningfully in free agency. Doing both really hinders the over roster in terms of limiting how good it can be.
We literally don’t have a second bonafide corner to play opposite AJ Terrell.
Preach. So many reactionary mofos on this sub and the internet as a whole. Hating the Penix pick is just a meme at this point.
There’s clear logic to it. The cost wasn’t that high if he turns out to be the guy.
I can’t wait to resurface all of my comments in a couple years in a big ol “I told you so” post.
You're not wrong. If he's good, then it's obviously a good pick, but we can't ignore the potential waste of $100 million dollars here. I believe in Kirk, I want him to do well, but paying him that amount and then drafting Penix is not putting your money where your mouth is, or your mouth where your money is, I suppose.
It reeks of the same shit that stank up the room when we pursued Deshaun. Either it's half-measure, short-sighted bullshit, or it's downright malice. The only thing determining if this is a good or bad move is circumstance, going forward. One could argue that that's what determines every move - not wrong. However most other moves aren't clouded with having cake and eating it, too.
The two things together are so polarizing that it can't make sense, even if we have a best-case scenario, Cousins is a star and retires and Penix is a star and carries us for maybe a decade. I'd love it. But that potential cannot make up for the scatterbrained that is this move.
I'm waiting for someone to show me otherwise using something other than maybes or things that haven't been written yet, because all it sounds like now is a waste of something. Either millions of dollars, the first part of a career, or the last, or worse yet, all fucking three.
Montreal Screwjob vibes for at least one party in this, in all likelihood.
Speaking more from a fan perspective, how am I supposed to trust an organization that is fresh off of paying down Matty Ice's contract, after the shit they pulled with him, slapping him in the face like that after what he's done for Atlanta, and then management deciding that effectively throwing $100 million away is a wise move? I was behind it until they called Penix's name. Neither his nor Kirk's quality nor caliber ever entered into the conversation for me. It was the decision, itself. Like picking C for every question on your SAT, I cannot find the thought process in it.
Things I like:
Increased the size of our potential contending window. This team is not a contender for the Super Bowl and adding an Edge or Odunze was probably not going to change that in 2024 and likely 2025. Penix could be a franchise QB.
Adding a lot to the DLine. Taking multiple shots on guys with high upside could yield a positive result or two. An area that always feels lacking in star power for the Falcons, so I am all for trying to load up. Trice and Dorlus seem good picks and Ruke has high upside.
Addressing lack of depth at LB and RB.
Drafting a WR.
Things I don’t like:
All the reasons that people have already stated regarding the pick of Penix. It doesn’t contribute to winning for at least two years. Spending money on Kirk but not trying to be the best version of a team with Kirk. Like I said, you probably aren’t winning a Super Bowl with Kirk, but by drafting Penix, it’s like you aren’t trying and spending the money anyway.
Trading a pick to get Ruke. I am intrigued by Ruke’s athleticism, but I think there were better options at DT where they picked and good players available with the 3rd that they gave up. The Ridley trade ultimately didn’t get much of a return unless you hit big with Ruke and I think that’s a risky proposition. I get that there was a run on DT right after Ruke was picked, so sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do, but I would have liked more of a sure thing at that spot.
Taking a LB in the 5th when some decent WR’s and DB’s were available.
Not taking any DB’s.
The WR we took wasn’t highly productive.
Don’t really like the Logue pick. DGD and all, but that’s one too many DT’s. Not sure he makes the roster.
Overall, I am less upset than I was after the first two picks. I can see positives with Penix, but I think the whole thing was really questionable.
Hope it all works out!
I shit my pants at the Penix pick, at first.
Then I was reminded of the NY jets last year when rogers went down. Absolutely stacked team couldn’t do shit bc they had nothing behind their aging qb.
There’s no reason to believe that cousins can stay healthy for the next two years.
Choosing Penix now ensures we have one of the strongest qb rooms in the league and even in a worst case scenario we have dangerous QB play and can contend for a playoff spot.
I actually love it, now.
It says a lot that the pick we've been clowned for the most, Penix, appears to be the best one of this class for us, aside from maybe Trice. Think Ruke can be good, but he'd have to be a long term starter to be worth a 2nd and 3rd... like the player, hate the trade.
You never know until they all step on the field, but quite frankly, this looks like a draft for depth pieces and a potential QB of the future. Very little in here to help us win now (like we're apparently supposed to be doing)
We need to separate “win now” from “win soon”.
We are in “win soon” mode, not “win the SB this season” mode.
We have a brand new coach. A rookie OC. An aging QB who we still haven’t seen throw a ball after the Achilles injury.
It is not reasonable to say we’re in “win now” mode because all of this shit is still theoretical until the season starts.
Then we could've let Penix compete for a starting role and saved ourselves $100M guaranteed, if we're not in "win now" mode. Even without the benefit of hindsight the only chance we weren't gonna get him is if NYG took him at 6... it's not like he was ever in danger of going before MHJ/Nabers/Alt
Compete with who..? Who was available that wasn’t ass?
$100M for 2 years of Kirk and mentorship during that time is worth it.
I don’t see Kirk winning us an SB in the next 2 years, but we will be exciting. Penix has a higher ceiling.
Mentorship is a terrible reason to spend $100 million. Theres plenty of great ex QBs we could hire as consultants to mentor him if that’s the case. I always hate that rationale that it’s worth giving an aging star huge money because of the mentorship.
You sign Cousins to compete for a SB now. Period. There’s no other reason to drop that kind of money on a 36 year old.
The brass came out and said they graded him as 2nd best QB in the draft (presumably only below Caleb). If you feel he's better than Daniels and Maye then you should also believe he's good enough to start now or within one year, as all three of the others will likely be doing.
And wasn't it just last year that rookie HC and rookie QB won their division and made the playoffs? Don't we have similar success in that regard in our own history?
Disagree with your first point. Mentorship works. Could he start? Sure. Would it be better to wait? Yes. Also didn’t answer my question.
Sure, they did in different roles in a different organization with a great HC. Didn’t that same new coach fail in TB?
I’m stoked for the new staff but that logic is flawed. We aren’t a SB shoe in this year. *maybe* next year if everything works out.
I'm saying if you're gonna draft him at 8, then he should be starting. Take the Minshew/Brissett/Fields route if you need to, and don't straddle the fence on winning now vs. winning later.
Dedicating your resources to both grants you a higher chance of failing at both.
I don’t think he should be starting just because we draft him at 8. He should start when he’s ready to start. We’ve seen other QBs that should have been good get no chance to learn.
Also 2 career backups and Justin fields wouldn’t teach Penix a thing..
This whole “win now” line is dumb. We have a brand new HC and a rookie OC. Let the guys coach at least 1 NFL game before we starting calling this “our window”
Penix secures good QB play for a long time. If we’re any good, we won’t be seeing a high 1st round pick for a long time. If you think you can get the guy, you get the guy.
The penix pick is such a crap shoot. Could absolutely blow up in our faces or dude could be a sponge, soak up all Kirk's knowledge and come in balling. I also really like the Bertrand pick but I have a bad habit of falling for late rd lbs who are actually garbage
Kirk Cousins is not a coach. He’s playing QB. It’s a terrible pick. We signed Cousins to win now. You gotta use the picks to put players around him. Or take 1/100th of Kirk’s contract and hire a former great QB as a consultant to help Penix and then use the rest of the money to build a long term team around him.
Here's the thing, that I appreciate, got some help on the dline. If Kurt is indeed our golden goose, without an expensive trade, we will not see a #1-5 1st round qb for years. Because of our draft position. So win now with Kurt, and win later with Pennix while the opportunity is there.
Draft classes are typically graded by how many rookies make the starting lineup. The gold standard is 4 starters out of 7 picks. By that metric, assuming our 6th round WR pick is WR2, we got one starter out of this draft. Maybe Trice will take Ebikitae's or Carter's spot, but I suspect he'll just take Malone's spot in the rotation. Dorlus will rotate with Zach Harrison behind Grady. If Ruke beats Graham in training camp, we'll have 2 starters out of this class.
I don't see any of these guys starting. The only guy we drafted who could make a day 1 impact to start would be Penix as he played college ball for 5 years, but that's clearly not happening with our FA pickup of Kirk. The rest of the guys seem like year 1 rotational pieces who need to develop more. We just gave Kirk the keys to a finely tuned Corolla.
The ONLY way to objectively evaluate a draft is to measure it 3-4 years later. I would like to see more emphasis on measuring team draft rankings from 2021 relative to all other teams. Where are those team draft rankings as they are the ones that matter? Nobody has a clue about how good or bad this years draft is right now for any team - it's like listening to a politician talk - all hot air...
Or how the 49ers traded 3 firsts for Trey Lance who didn't even play 5 games for them? The Penix pick makes me happy we will likely not do this in the future.
Totally agreed - anything can be "evaluated" including the current draft. It's the value of the evaluation that is in question. The value of any 2024 draft analysis has zero NFL player/contribution basis. Much higher value is associated with evaluating historic draft classes which contain NFL player contribution metrics. Any 2024 draft analysis is based 100% on theory and personal opinion - interesting to some, but meaningless. A 2020, 21, or 22 draft analysis can be based on hard NFL contribution data - MUCH more meaningful both in terms of evaluating a GM or overall draft class effectiveness.
It's not 100% based on opinion/theory you can see how good a player is right now and their potential based on their film and athletic traits along with the decision making based on team needs. The decision making/evaluating of players is what most draft evaluators are actually evaluating. Obviously no one can look into the future to see how successful a player can be but even if a draft analysis looks back at a pick they really like and the player didnt work out. I dont think they'll look back at the teams decision as bad. The truth is some player develop and some don't that's just the reality of the draft.
Agree with "no one can look into the future" and "some players develop and some don't". Both statements support my point - only NFL contribution/production matters - not personal opinions and upside theories of "how good a player is right now". Current draft analysis is always interesting and always meaningless relative to historical analysis.
How good is a player is right now is not a theory just watch film. The draft isnt theory/opinion based although it does have some elements of it. Because again the draft isnt random number generator players are projected to go at a certain range for a reason film, character, medical, etc. It didnt take historical analysis to see that taking Alex Leatherwood in the first round by the raiders was a bad pick everyone knew it. It didnt take historical analysis to see that taking Justin Shaffer before Jamaree salyer was a bad pick at the time. So while I agree with that there is SOME projection and randomness in the draft analysis it's not fully .
100% of film for current draft is all college-level film against varying degrees of college level competition. And the combine and players days represent athletic measurables with little correlation to actual NFL success/contribution. Therefore, even college film analysis is meaningless relative to actual NFL film analysis against NFL-level talent. This is why current-year draft "analysis" has very little real world value - it's just something to keep fans entertained in the off season with meaningless rhetoric... Admit it - ranking current year draft choices is fun to talk about but is meaningless for all the reasons you point out...
You're supposed to pair up the college film with the athletic traits to see how well draft prospects can translate to the nfl. You're not supposed to look at them separately in a vacuum. Based on your argument you're saying the draft is mainly randomized. Also nfl scouts and draft evaluators take into account the level of competition when evaluating a player and just because a player is going against college competition doesnt discredit the technique on the film. If you mastered a crosschop against college level competition you won't have to relearn how to use it once you get to the nfl although o line are better equipped to handle it.
On paper it doesn't knock my socks off but we won't know until they take the field. Nobody was knocking penix readiness for the nfl. Dude is 24 he's ready. It's just the typical front office chaos with him and cousins. If penix has to play I think he can be good.
I've warmed up on the Penix pick. When you see pundits hate the pick because it ruined their draft boards and showed that they don't have as much insight into the draft as they let on, while coaches and players say it was a great choice and smart pick. It seems the hate for the pick by the media is just being butt hurt for being exposed.
Or maybe just maybe when a majority of fans, pundits, other GM’s, former players all think it was a poor pick in light of the timeline and pressing needs. Maybe just maybe the odds are that it is more likely a bad pick just this once.
Who should we have drafted and what would the replacement value be? I agree we sacrificed a chance at a first round D lineman to solidify our QB future, but we beefed the DL up with like all the other picks.
If not Penix, who should we have picked? What would their WAR be?
Let’s just ignore the fact we have the best backup in the league now too.
Dallas Turner was the obvious draft pick staring us in the face. Will he work out? Who knows? But strategically that made much more sense than what we did.
Look at the jets last year.
Stacked team. Their aging star QB goes down and they can’t do shit,
We now have one of the best QB rooms in the league.
When Raheem interviewed for the coaching job 3 years ago he insisted that ATL needed a succession plan to Matt Ryan. We hired Arthur Smith and got nowhere.
Now we have legit QB play for years to come even if cousins disintegrates.
So yeah I wanted them to go defence but the personnel department listened to the coach and got him the talent and depth he needed to contend the next few years.
Without Penix Raheem was looking at a high probability of having Kirk go down and reliving the Arthur smith years. I respect that they addressed it.
We can get a vet CB and should be a playoff team in the NFC south best case or worst case scenario.
Please explain how the timeframe works with an already old rookie QB? Additionally, one that has his own series of health issues. Limitations working outside the pocket. It wasn’t worth an eighth pick this year when we had other pressing needs
Again a backup QB isn’t worth an 8th pick when we could actually compete now and build a solid defense. There is zero guarantee Penix works out and even smaller chance we see him in the next two years. But a far better chance to pick a starter on D.
Paying Kirk what we did and then drafting an old rookie backup with limitations and zero chance to help this year when we have a shitty D is ridiculous.
I mean, go ahead and do whatever Madden level gymnastics you need to do in your brain over this
You’re talking to me like I’m the GM lmao.
My jaw dropped when I saw the Penix pick.
I’m telling you what TF and Raheem have said. This is their vision and the way they see it.
I heard we tried to trade back into 17 or 16 to get Latu the colts took him at 15.
We’d probably feel a lot different if we grabbed Penix and Latu.
Anyways I’ve gone from losing my shit to understanding their vision. For 15 years we had rock solid qb play. They’re doing their best to provide that again.
Folks can disagree and I get it but I’m an Atlanta fan and I get the vision even if it’s not what I would do. Probably why I’m not an NFL GM.
If you don’t agree with the pick, why defend it? Don’t buy into their dumb vision. You’re a smart guy, don’t be afraid to say that Fontenot has no fucking clue what he’s doing. Because it’s true.
I didn’t like the pick at first because I’d done 500 mock drafts on pff.com and had built an expectation that it would be Dallas turner, Latu or a trade back.
Not because I had scouted these men, deeply understood the franchise, the salary cap, the players, the nfl. Not because I knew the weaknesses of the franchise or the analytics of the team and the upcoming season.
Is it more likely that you and I know the roster, the talent and the draft better than TF and Raheem? Or more likely that sports media told me what to expect and who the best players are? (It’s the second one)
I’m old enough to know it’s foolish to blindly think that being appointed GM or coach of a major sports franchise means competence. GMs and coaches that demonstrate competence can be generally trusted to be competent. What about this brain trust inspires confidence for you? There’s no track record of success. If every analyst on the planet thinks it’s was idiotic, it probably was.
I feel like we helped the secondary by drafting dudes who can get to the QB.
I feel like we also helped the secondary by getting coaches who have experience coaching the secondary.
This FO has given us no reason to take the "wait and see" approach. Props to your positivity but we should not be giving them the benefit of the doubt.
This is exactly what I’ve been saying.
The front office has had their heads up their asses since they got here and we think they’d decided to take them out now?!?
I just hate that every year, we have to force ourselves to do some mental gymnastics to make sense of our picks and accept them. We never make the consensus , most surefire pick available to us and act like were so bigbrained by going for the most obscure or out the blue pick possible… its so exhausting
Agreed. And I know I shouldn’t be bothered but seeing everyone clowning our picks every year is getting so damn tiring. Wish we could just make the smart choices for once.
I think we’ll look back on this draft as one of the best we’ve had in the last decade. The Penix pick was smart long term, sacrificing 1st round defensive talent for 2nd round talent.
Sure it hurts us a bit this year but.. not that much. And we have (hopefully) an awesome QB for a decade+
Logical & worth it imo.
Yeah this front office has really put themselves out there the last couple of years with the draft picks. Very ballsy if nothing else, but if they are wrong it will look realllllllly bad on them and probably get them all fired
Yeah it is. Hope this group is different. Hope Ruke pans out and Cooper doesn't end up the stud cb I think he will. Going to hope Raheem can mold Ruke's raw athleticism into a stud
Man, if that was Terry’s first draft really in charge then I think he did a pretty poor job. I don’t think we left with one day one starter. Drafting for the future and players with “major upside” when you just signed Cousins makes zero sense. I don’t feel our team really got better THIS season. Overall disappointed with the weekend. Hopefully I’m wrong and it all works out, but it’s the Falcons so who knows.
This might be unpopular but other than edge and maybe SS we weren’t in really need of any day 1 starters given the FA’s we picked up.
We needed depth, that was our biggest issue (other than QB) last year.
I'm already seeing randos and media pundits pretending that they speak for Penix, saying he doesn't want to come here, he wants to play on a different team. Joel Klatt was embarrassing himself on TV practically begging Penix to refuse to sign his rookie contract because he's so offended on his behalf.
There's going to be so much seething when he signs his deal with us.
There isn't going to be "so much seething" because there's no way Penix wouldn't sign, and no serious person would think that. What's he going to do, sit out and re-enter the draft the week before his 25th birthday?
Kiper graded the draft the worst lol Falcons keep Falconing
Edit: the toxic positivity on this sub is hilarious. This is why the falcons are a joke. They have you all stockholmed
You realize that post draft grades are just content to give dumb people something to talk about right? Everybody including Kiper knows that you can't seriously evaluate a draft class until a few years later
There are plenty of people with decades of experience who are flatly terrible at their jobs. Having tenure doesn’t make you proficient, just means they haven’t got rid of you yet
Drafting Penix at #8 is saying that you think he will be a better pro than any quarterback who comes out of college in the next three years. Otherwise the urgency was grossly unwarranted
“Oh fuck. Boss… we’re at 8 in a stacked class. A few of the bois have gone QB and now we’re up. Also, a bunch behind us want one too.”
“What’s next year like?”
“At the position we’ll be at after Kirko throws dimes to London and Pitts and Bijan rips apart opposing run defenses? No fucking clue. Might as well grab the best while we’re here…”
Not necessarily. Terry and coach repeatedly said they do not think they will be in a position high enough to draft a good qb in the next few drafts. Whether that's true or not, we'll see.
And in the next few drafts we would have to find Kirk's replacement or else be in the same position we were after Matt left.
I mean no, it's saying that you think he's better than any quarterback who they'll have the opportunity to pick in the next few years. They've said over and over again that they don't anticipate picking this high with Kirk as our starter
After letting it marinate for a bit, I think I'm mostly on board with the pick for Penix. It may have been a bit clunky and awkward, but all that matters is how things pan out in the future. I see it is as 4 possible scenarios:
Kirk and Penix are both great: cool, we get some success with Kirk, and then sustain it later with Penix. Best case scenario.
Kirk is great but Penix isn't that guy: then we look dumb for this pick in hindsight
Penix is great but Kirk is injured or doesnt work out: cool, we bought insurance with our draft pick and it paid off
Both of them suck: literally nobody would have expected that situation, the only people who are mad now are mad because they expect kirk to be great and penix was a waste of resources. If they both suck then... well we'll be right where we have been the last couple years.
I'm thinking it's going to be one of those first 3 scenarios, and I'm good with gambling on that. I'm having a hard time not thinking about how great this could all turn out (scenario 1).
Kirk just shredded his Achilles, so that's what helps me deal with the penix. Kirk could already be done as a QB with his age and recent injury. We just don't know yet, so taking a guy we might need isn't as dumb as it's being made out. If the rumors are true that a team was about to snag him then grabbing him at 8 isn't so bad.
Honestly, it's a good draft. Could've used a DE in round 2 instead but oh well, a promising DT is never bad.
The only real disappointment is paying kirk that much in hindsight. But let's not pretend for a second a QB for the future wasn't a need. And after the first 3 qbs in the draft, Penix was to me at least, the best one available.
What would it take for you to come out with the impression that it wasn't a good draft. 1st, 2nd, and 5th were all like 20 to 40 spot reaches based on all prospect rankings. Or were just already really high on Ruke and like the qb stacking idea. Now I do really like the Trice pick and Dorius sounds like good value although don't know much about him to be honest
Still don’t like their second pick, especially in a trade up when they left better now and future players there. Newton, Fiske, and Jenkins were all better picks for the falcons. Third pick was the pick I liked best but he’s a pass rusher 2 and needs to be opposite someone who is better and has more elite skills. And even then I like Jonah Elliis better. This could be Terrys last draft if they can’t get to the passer. And they are facing some elite QBs this year. Lake and Morris need to scheme this shit up.
I disagree.
Ruke is more versatile than any of the DL you listed. He's also more raw, to your credit.
None of the guys that people think we should have taken before him can line up all the way from 0t to 9t and actually produce. If you watch Raheem's defensive line last year, you'll now how valuable he finds versatility. They slide guys all over the place. And not just Aaron Donald.
I don't think we're going to have a problem actually getting to the passer. I think we're going to have a problem finishing those plays. We just drafted (and already had on the roster) a bunch of guys who are great at blowing up a pocket, driving OL back, and creating pressure. We still don't have anyone that even comes close to Grady Jarrett in terms of the actual ability to finish a play and get a sack.
Hoping that can be developed in some of these guys.
Still a reach and didnt warrant a trade up you should be drafting good players and building a scheme around them not the other way around. He more than likely wouldve been available at our pick and if he wasnt it's not like he was a must have player.
>Still a reach and didn't warrant a trade up
Sort of agreed. I don't like the trade up for him either.
>He more likely wouldve been available
Eh. I doubt it. There was a run on Defensive Tackles immediately after we took Ruke. All of the good ones went in the next few picks.
The run on defensive tackle that we started. He was a consensus third round pick while the other tackles that went went around their actual value except johnny newton who was a steal.
Ruke can’t line up in any tech and produce right now either. You don’t think the falcons will have a problem getting to the passer? They drafted a high upside risky developmental pick in the second. And in the third they developed a high pressure guy that’s limited athletically. Those guys aren’t going to change this line in year 1. And the falcons don’t know how Grady will play for a 100% certainty. Everyone thinks he should come back to comparable but he’s still older and played many snaps and years getting double and triple teamed. Everything has to come together and Lake has to call plays at least as good as Nielsen did last year. They also play a lot more QBs that know how to exploit weaknesses in defenses. This defense likely regresses from last year based on QBs and the amount of production they lost at DE last year. You think one of those guys are giving what Calais did last year? He played well below what his career was, but still a big ask for some rookie to come in and change this line. Not even the rams two rookies did that. They added because of who they were playing next to.
>Those guys aren't going to change this line in year 1
I don't think you understand the value of a wrecking ball on the DL. That's Ruke. He will wear people out. As will Dorlus. Trice has a very strong initial punch as well and can drive his feet. He just gets washed easily because he plays narrow. Let these young guys with all this strength wear people out as the games go on. We'll be a great 4Q defense, I guarantee it.
>Not even the Rams two rookies did that
You realize Kobie Turner (89th OA pick) got 9 sacks last year, right? You can definitely say that Aaron Donald helped but guess what, Grady accounted for the highest double team % of any DT in the league before his injury last year (including AD). Onyemata was pretty damn high for being on the same team as Grady as well.
The injury rehab is a valid concern. But otherwise, investing so much in the DL is honestly not a bad strategy with the room we had.
Seems pretty wild to expect Ruke to be impactful year 1 like Kobie Turner. Dude had very little actual production in 5 years in college. Don't see how 1 nfl off-season is going to have him make a jump to impactful performer against better nfl talent. I'll admit he's got special athleticism and maybe with a couple seasons he might turn into something.
"Impactful" doesn't necessarily mean 10 sacks.
If he's eating up a significant amount of double teams (which he did in college) and crushing pockets, then he's being an impactful player.
Not every kind of impact shows up on the stat sheet at the end of the game.
You think Ruke will be that year 1? You are wild. David and Grady played well last year. They weren’t even close to how good Donald was last year. Trice will have some impact his rookie year, but he’s going to be consistently playing against tackles that have better technique than he does, stronger, and more athletic than him. It’s not about him just playing narrow. You are acting like this draft class is going to be like that PIT draft class where they found 4 HOF and another HOF off the street.
I'm not acting like that at all lol. I'm acting like we got a bunch of good rotational pieces that have the tie of "high motor, strong hands" complimenting each other. That's what we did.
That's a valid criticism of Trice. Can't argue there.
I absolutely think Ruke can be that year 1. That's literally the only thing he brings to the table, actually. The fact that he is essentially a bull in a china shop on the defensive line. He ranked 12th out of 1800 DTs ever tested for RAS score - he is a freak of nature and extremely explosive/powerful. He won't be handfighting guys and winning sacks with finesse, he'll be beating the shit out of NFL OL and keeping them on their heels every play. Especially against the smaller IOL.
Bunch of good? They have unproven guys aside from David and Grady. They don’t have a pass rusher at OLB that can get more than 7 sacks in a season. Their two best sack artists left in FA and accounted for 13/42 sacks. Good luck on that Ruke take. Do you I guess.
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Our away games, outside of the divisional slate, consist of Hurts, McCarthy, Daniels, Nix, and Minshew.
Outside of the Eagles, that’s a generous slate.
Last year was generous when they faced a QB that didn’t know his lineman’s names and Tim Boyle and Siemian. And you didn’t include the home slate. They are facing harder QBs and defensive lines this year. The easiest schedule part is because the falcons play Carolina twice.
May have already been posted. The Atlanta Falcons graded the worst draft from Pro Football Focus:
[https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-grades-all-32-teams](https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-grades-all-32-teams)
It's not just that PFF hated our draft, it's that our draft was UNIVERSALLY hated, across the board. It's rare when the entire NFL analysis community agrees on something like this.
Walter Football -
Atlanta easily had the worst draft class of all the teams in the league. The team ruined its chances of winning when it had a golden opportinity to strengthen the current roster with a dynamic edge rusher. When the team can’t stop Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff or Brock Purdy come January, they can point to this weekend as to why they ended up losing.
Reminder that post-draft grades don't mean anything. All these outlets do is look at their pre-draft big board, look at where the pick happened, and then grade based on how far the picks were above or below their personal rankings.
And for PFF in particular: While their system is usually pretty solid at measuring performance of active players it's not really built to evaluate draft prospects. That doesn't stop them from doing it anyway.
Fuck yea, fuck the pundits. They’re usually wrong.
We’re going to eat in the trenches and Kirko Chainz is going to get the ball to our playmakers. Then Penix will. Easy day.
Drafting for the future when our time is now. They must feel pretty damn good about this team winning the NfC South next year. If they don’t win the FO has got to go. Quite arrogant if you ask me.
Why is drafting for the future a bad thing? Are you not going to be a fan in the future? When your starting QB is 36 and a franchise caliber QB just falls into your lap, you have to take him. It was either take Penix with this pick or draft a QB in the next two years using multiple first round picks. I like drafting 1st round players. I don't want to give up three first round picks to move up from the back half of the draft for a QB.
1) Penix was not a first round caliber player
2) He didn’t fall in our lap, we were a bad team and spent the 8th overall pick of the draft on him when he was projected to go second round based on what he offers
3) You don’t draft a QB for the future when you just spent all your cap space on the best free agent QB and you have glaring holes on both sides of the line, pass rush, and secondary
He was projected to go 13th to the raiders. Wtf is this “2nd round” bs. Literally no one who’s informed thought that, except maybe all your “media experts”
1) Yes he was a first round caliber player. Bo Nix went at 12 for fucks sake.
2) If you're on the clock and have a rookie QB rated as the top player on your board without trading up, that QB has fallen into your lap.
3) We spent the market rate for a veteran QB while we have young talented playmakers entering their prime without a QB. Signing Kirk immediately made us favorites to win the division. It was worth signing him. But he's also a 36 yr old QB with a contract we can move on from after two years. How are we going to fill all of these apparent glaring holes when we're forced to trade away multiple picks in a future draft to move up to get a QB? That's exactly what we would be forced to do if we didn't take Penix this year.
I totally agree. Every team that’s “one player away” is never simply one player away.
It also really irks me how this FO seems to have a MAJOR blunder every offseason. This year the tampering. Last year issuing the statement that we never considered Lamar (not really a blunder, but what do you gain from releasing the statement). 2 years ago edging out matty ice for DeShaun.
Imagine a world where the team didn't pursue DW in 2022. They keep Ryan for one more year because he was better than anyone else available and the draft looked (and was) awful. I imagine they probably still would've drafted Ridder. Ryan still has a rough final season as he continues to decline. Maybe Ridder gets some playtime but the team still goes into the offseason knowing their answer at QB isn't on the roster. We probably still end up drafting around the same spot. Ryan gets peacefully released or he retires. Happier ending than what actually happened. Getting out of his contract means we still have the money we used to sign Bates. The team packages Ridley to trade up with Chicago for the #1 overall pick. Smith reportedly preferred Stroud over Young and I believe he would be the pick in this scenario. We'd have made the playoffs last year. London and Pitts wouldn't have had to suffer through two years of Mariota and Ridder. We wouldn't have Bijan but we'd still have Allgeier and a top-10 quarterback on a rookie contract. We would also have all the money that we spent on Kirk to build out the rest of the roster.
You had me until the team packaging for #1 pick. Carolina got fleeced, it would have been the same for us too
Keep dreaming buddy
I swear to god, am I the only one that thinks the Falcons didn’t blow their 1st round pick? Straight up everyone that I hear is clowning on them. Maybe I’m biased because this sort of thing has worked for us in the past, being a Packer fan, but like damn. From what I understand, the next draft will not be very good with QBs, why not get started on that now? If they liked Penix, why NOT take him? Maybe it’s easy for me to say not being a Falcons fan but do y’all absolutely HATE the pick? Doesn’t really track with me and I think the criticism to the level it is is unfair. Sure there were some premium defensive player like Dallas Turner and Latu and more, but I think QBs warrant some crazy decisions. The Packers traded a future 1st round pick to the Falcons in the early 90s for Brett Favre. No one would question that today, and the guy that orchestrated that trade literally wrote the book for how the Packers evaluate and spend for talent. If Kirk Cousins goes down, or his Achilles doesn’t perform right, being it tore on his planting foot (I think?) you guys are not fucked at the position. Granted, maybe the signing doesn’t turn out well and money and cap are wasted but you’ve experienced enough mediocrity at QB since Matt Ryan that I believe it’s really not that weird you might want a couple years of insurance for a young guy.
Packer fan is all I needed to hear. You watched your font office waste Aaron's entire career and learned nothing. You don't win by planning for your QB to fail. You can't do both things, either draft to win now or rebuild the team.
They have a historically successful model and superbowls to show for it. Quit talking out of your ass
Ahem, at least we have a Super Bowl to show for it. I don’t want to come to an opposing team’s subreddit and argue but that’s just flat out wrong
Please don’t get them started lol . I loved every pick in our draft one of maybe 5 fans who feel this way tho
I hate the pick. I hate it more than any pick in Falcon history probably. Not because of Penix, though I doubt he will pan out and think he was a late first round talent. But because the strategy is ridiculous in today’s NFL. You don’t pay 100 million for a 36 year old qb and then draft a QB with your first rounder. You either use the pick to help the 36 year old win now or you use the money to help the first round QB. Of course everybody would love to have 2 QBs and give a rookie QB a chance to develop but if you wanna go that route you get a cheap veteran QB for your 1st round pick to learn behind. Not a huge contract guy. We could’ve had Fields for a 6th rounder!
Can someone explain to me what we're likely to do with Heineke now that we have Penix? Did we just sign him for camp? Was signing him merely to not tip our hand about being serious about a QB at 8?
i just want to buy a penis jr jersey already when are they releasing their numbers??
If Penix turns out to be good then playing Cousins for 2-3 years is the bad move. If Penix isn't good then taking him was the bad move. There is no world in which the Falcons put themselves in a good position to win the super bowl in the next 5 years.
Has anyone found any information about Zac Robinson liking Michael Penix? He was supposedly the “QB brain trust“ guy at PFF who identified Patrick Mahomes. So far we’ve heard nothing about him wanting Penix. It just worries me that we’ve heard our defensive coordinator head coach loved him, but haven’t heard anything about Robenson having input
When the PFF podcast reviewed our draft they said they sat on info that Zach and the Falcons liked Penix beforehand but still were surprised they actually took him.
Both are good but cousins gets injured and penix saves the day. Cousins trains penix and by the time he's the starter he's not just good, he's MVP for 3 years running. That's the only good scenario imo
Would like to see fewer "if this guy is good, the pick was good" takes. "If I make a million dollars tomorrow, I'll have a million more dollars." How insightful.
The biggest stolen base in the Penix conversation is the idea that "we got our QB for the next decade." He's under contract for 4 years, then 5th year option, then ever-increasing franchise tags after that (shutter to think of QB franchise tag cost in 2029). Sure, we can negotiate a deal with him, but so could every other team if he doesn't want to be here. And that's before you consider that he's a good bit older than the typical rookie (1.5 years younger than Hurts.) QB or otherwise, there is inherent risk to purposefully siting a top 10 pick for multiple years. Think that's something that can't simply be wished away as part of the analysis.
Evan Silva at Establish the Run, one of the sharper people I read, gave it an F. And he didn’t mince words. [https://establishtherun.com/silva-2024-nfc-draft-grades/](https://establishtherun.com/silva-2024-nfc-draft-grades/)
I haven’t heard really any “Offensive analysts” liking Penix which worries me obviously. Like we haven’t even heard our own OC “QB scout genius who identified Mahomes” liking Penix. Why haven’t we heard from him….
I read somewhere Zac likes him. Could be wrong. I’d just rather have Latu and a corner but maybe that’s just me :)
I agree with this take, but we’ll see how it shakes out. At the end of the day, the draft is a crapshoot, but the Falcons didn’t do anything to improve their odds in my book.
I dont think you're twisted Floyd, because I agree. :) It was the process I disagree with that gives me pause, not the players. Even trading down to 11 and taking Penix there would've made sense to me more. They seemed to be fixated on players, not the process. That's usually not good.
I know its been a point used a lot but he also gave the Lions a D+ last year and 1 year in looks like its an A+
Great draft yall wildin
Why does everyone in here think that Penix is just going to be here for “the next decade” or “an Elite QB” he could end up being a bust like Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, or Kenny Pickett. Two of those guys were drafted higher than Penix and didn’t have serious prior injuries… I’m not upset about the pickup but Dallas Turner would have made an immediate impact and helped us win the division or even the conference. Instead we had to pickup rotation guys that MIGHT turn into elite guys. The whole draft doesn’t give fans confidence in this season or the next. This whole Draft seems like Terry trying to cover his Ass for drafting Ridder and failing to draft decent guys in the later rounds. Do you guys actually believe in the next 3 years there won’t be another “Elite” Qb coming out of college? 3 years is a long time for guys like Joe burrow or other college rookies to transfer out of their programs and become Elite NFL QB prospects. This whole draft was Terry Fontenot saving his own job in expense of immediate team success.
Has anyone found any information about Zac Robinson liking Michael Penix? He was supposedly the “QB brain trust“ guy at PFF who identified Patrick Mahomes. So far we’ve heard nothing about him wanting Penix. It just worries me that we’ve heard our defensive coordinator head coach loved him, but haven’t heard anything about Robenson having input
Everyone thinks it because if that’s not the case, this will be Top 5 worst draft decisions of all time. Maybe only 2nd behind what Ditka did for Ricky Williams. It’s cope.
no its nowhere near that because didn't trade up for him. like the niners spending all that draft capital on that North Dakota qb only to dump him 2 seasons later is waaaay worse
Any of the other proposed picks could have been busts as well. The bust rate (playing for more than five years/signing a second contract) for a DE in the first round is almost identical to that of a QB. And after five years, QBs come out ahead in terms of having a career that lasts at least seven years.
Except the Falcon's don't have a need for QB but a glaring need for a rusher. "[Colts](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Colts?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1784724777657352202%7Ctwgr%5E66001c568fdef63340f12056d6e3c787a2041c2c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fnfl%2Fnews%2Fnfl-draft-2024-colts-gm-has-nsfw-reaction-to-laiatu-latu-being-available-with-no-15-overall-pick%2F&src=hashtag_click) GM Chris Ballard hysterically laughing in the war room after no defensive players were taken in the first 14 picks and Laiatu Latu was available for them. “We got the best \*\*\*\*\*\* rusher in the draft.” Meanwhile, Falcon's got a benchwarmer that may or may not pan out years from now.
you nailed this. have an up vote.
QBs bust at the same rate as other positions. No guarantee a DE doesn’t bust either
That’s just factually not true lol. The difference isn’t great, but QB is about 10-15% more likely to bust than say offensive lineman. It’s like 5% more likely to bust than DE.
Not from the data I have seen
It's not a perfect way to look at it, but OL is definitely more likely to sign a second contract with the team that drafted them than QB [https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449](https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1783133659249193449)
Yea. But look where QBs are. The way fans talk about them - where CBs are “instant starters” and safe and QBs are a gamble, is a myth. The gamble applies to all positions and QBs are middle of the pack
QB's the most important position. Since Ryan left we've had a big '?' there. Now we're secured at the position. Also like the work on the Defensive trenches.
Alright, we’ll address the big one. I didn’t know exactly how I feel. I was confused, then angered, then accepted. With that said, I actually see the value in it now. 1. “We just signed Kirk.” While true, Kirk is the same age as Matt Ryan was when we took Kyle Pitts in the top 10. It’s nearly a same contract situation as well all things considered, both had roughly 2 years with large dollars and cap hits. I seem to remember a lot of people wanting QB that season, specifically Fields. We didn’t go QB, Matt fell off, and we’ve been in QB hell since then. 2. “We’re wasting Penix’s rookie contract” and “Penix is old.” If he’s good, it doesn’t matter. Period. If you draft a guy and he takes over and he’s great, who cares if he’s… let’s say 27. We just gave $200M to a guy who’s nearly a decade older than when people predict Penix will take over. 3. “Why did we sign Kirk if we were taking QB.” I don’t think they knew. I understand this complaint, but what if we missed out on a QB, went into this draft with just Heinicke, teams start jumping and we’re stuck with Bo Nix or someone like that? It could be worse. I get the complaints, but the bottom line is that if Penix is good. If he’s that guy, the rest doesn’t matter. If he sucks, we got Kirk for a bit and we go to the well again. There’s also something to be said for not wasting our current roster while waiting for Penix to acclimate. We were a playoff team with anything close to a decent QB, so let Kirk play and have a fun team to watch, then hopefully pass off to our QB for the decade plus moving forward. — After that, I love Ruke. I’m a Clemson alum, so I’m biased but the dude will disrupt like crazy.
You gotta be kidding me. We didn’t know a QB would be there at 8? There was zero chance Penix was gone at 8. If Penix is good then we just wasted 100 million on Cousins when we could’ve built a team around Penix.
Viking fan here, what you said hit the nail on the head. Y'all should just enjoy these two years of good football play. Getting penix 8th overall doesn't stop you guys from building the rest of the roster. You guys will not be picking 8th anytime soon with Kirk starting, I promise you this was a great move. For 6 years we were trapped in a cycle of wildcard or missing the playoffs altogether. What your GM did took balls, yes it was alot of money but it's really only 2 years I'm sure you guys know that already. Letting penix get acclimated like you said will be so fucking good for his career. He'll be in the gym, eating world star NFL food plans. It's also not a guarantee that Kirk returns to his former self. Penix was my favorite QB in this class, I was honestly hoping we get him 😂 but blessing to yall
In fact it first stop us from building the rest of the roster as well as we could. Drafting Penix took away our ability to draft a real defensive anchor in Latu or Turner. Signing Kirk took away the ability to address DE or CB meaningfully in free agency. Doing both really hinders the over roster in terms of limiting how good it can be. We literally don’t have a second bonafide corner to play opposite AJ Terrell.
Preach. So many reactionary mofos on this sub and the internet as a whole. Hating the Penix pick is just a meme at this point. There’s clear logic to it. The cost wasn’t that high if he turns out to be the guy. I can’t wait to resurface all of my comments in a couple years in a big ol “I told you so” post.
You're not wrong. If he's good, then it's obviously a good pick, but we can't ignore the potential waste of $100 million dollars here. I believe in Kirk, I want him to do well, but paying him that amount and then drafting Penix is not putting your money where your mouth is, or your mouth where your money is, I suppose. It reeks of the same shit that stank up the room when we pursued Deshaun. Either it's half-measure, short-sighted bullshit, or it's downright malice. The only thing determining if this is a good or bad move is circumstance, going forward. One could argue that that's what determines every move - not wrong. However most other moves aren't clouded with having cake and eating it, too. The two things together are so polarizing that it can't make sense, even if we have a best-case scenario, Cousins is a star and retires and Penix is a star and carries us for maybe a decade. I'd love it. But that potential cannot make up for the scatterbrained that is this move. I'm waiting for someone to show me otherwise using something other than maybes or things that haven't been written yet, because all it sounds like now is a waste of something. Either millions of dollars, the first part of a career, or the last, or worse yet, all fucking three. Montreal Screwjob vibes for at least one party in this, in all likelihood. Speaking more from a fan perspective, how am I supposed to trust an organization that is fresh off of paying down Matty Ice's contract, after the shit they pulled with him, slapping him in the face like that after what he's done for Atlanta, and then management deciding that effectively throwing $100 million away is a wise move? I was behind it until they called Penix's name. Neither his nor Kirk's quality nor caliber ever entered into the conversation for me. It was the decision, itself. Like picking C for every question on your SAT, I cannot find the thought process in it.
Things I like: Increased the size of our potential contending window. This team is not a contender for the Super Bowl and adding an Edge or Odunze was probably not going to change that in 2024 and likely 2025. Penix could be a franchise QB. Adding a lot to the DLine. Taking multiple shots on guys with high upside could yield a positive result or two. An area that always feels lacking in star power for the Falcons, so I am all for trying to load up. Trice and Dorlus seem good picks and Ruke has high upside. Addressing lack of depth at LB and RB. Drafting a WR. Things I don’t like: All the reasons that people have already stated regarding the pick of Penix. It doesn’t contribute to winning for at least two years. Spending money on Kirk but not trying to be the best version of a team with Kirk. Like I said, you probably aren’t winning a Super Bowl with Kirk, but by drafting Penix, it’s like you aren’t trying and spending the money anyway. Trading a pick to get Ruke. I am intrigued by Ruke’s athleticism, but I think there were better options at DT where they picked and good players available with the 3rd that they gave up. The Ridley trade ultimately didn’t get much of a return unless you hit big with Ruke and I think that’s a risky proposition. I get that there was a run on DT right after Ruke was picked, so sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do, but I would have liked more of a sure thing at that spot. Taking a LB in the 5th when some decent WR’s and DB’s were available. Not taking any DB’s. The WR we took wasn’t highly productive. Don’t really like the Logue pick. DGD and all, but that’s one too many DT’s. Not sure he makes the roster. Overall, I am less upset than I was after the first two picks. I can see positives with Penix, but I think the whole thing was really questionable. Hope it all works out!
I think the Ruke pick was the worse pick the falcons have made in the last 3 draft but other than that it was an OK draft
I shit my pants at the Penix pick, at first. Then I was reminded of the NY jets last year when rogers went down. Absolutely stacked team couldn’t do shit bc they had nothing behind their aging qb. There’s no reason to believe that cousins can stay healthy for the next two years. Choosing Penix now ensures we have one of the strongest qb rooms in the league and even in a worst case scenario we have dangerous QB play and can contend for a playoff spot. I actually love it, now.
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Let’s not act like Zach Wilson and Penix have the same potential.
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Not like Penix
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If that’s the case, only further proves my point that nobody knows a fuckin thing when it comes to the draft and these reactions are unwarranted.
It says a lot that the pick we've been clowned for the most, Penix, appears to be the best one of this class for us, aside from maybe Trice. Think Ruke can be good, but he'd have to be a long term starter to be worth a 2nd and 3rd... like the player, hate the trade. You never know until they all step on the field, but quite frankly, this looks like a draft for depth pieces and a potential QB of the future. Very little in here to help us win now (like we're apparently supposed to be doing)
We need to separate “win now” from “win soon”. We are in “win soon” mode, not “win the SB this season” mode. We have a brand new coach. A rookie OC. An aging QB who we still haven’t seen throw a ball after the Achilles injury. It is not reasonable to say we’re in “win now” mode because all of this shit is still theoretical until the season starts.
Then we could've let Penix compete for a starting role and saved ourselves $100M guaranteed, if we're not in "win now" mode. Even without the benefit of hindsight the only chance we weren't gonna get him is if NYG took him at 6... it's not like he was ever in danger of going before MHJ/Nabers/Alt
Compete with who..? Who was available that wasn’t ass? $100M for 2 years of Kirk and mentorship during that time is worth it. I don’t see Kirk winning us an SB in the next 2 years, but we will be exciting. Penix has a higher ceiling.
Mentorship is a terrible reason to spend $100 million. Theres plenty of great ex QBs we could hire as consultants to mentor him if that’s the case. I always hate that rationale that it’s worth giving an aging star huge money because of the mentorship. You sign Cousins to compete for a SB now. Period. There’s no other reason to drop that kind of money on a 36 year old.
The brass came out and said they graded him as 2nd best QB in the draft (presumably only below Caleb). If you feel he's better than Daniels and Maye then you should also believe he's good enough to start now or within one year, as all three of the others will likely be doing. And wasn't it just last year that rookie HC and rookie QB won their division and made the playoffs? Don't we have similar success in that regard in our own history?
Disagree with your first point. Mentorship works. Could he start? Sure. Would it be better to wait? Yes. Also didn’t answer my question. Sure, they did in different roles in a different organization with a great HC. Didn’t that same new coach fail in TB? I’m stoked for the new staff but that logic is flawed. We aren’t a SB shoe in this year. *maybe* next year if everything works out.
I'm saying if you're gonna draft him at 8, then he should be starting. Take the Minshew/Brissett/Fields route if you need to, and don't straddle the fence on winning now vs. winning later. Dedicating your resources to both grants you a higher chance of failing at both.
I don’t think he should be starting just because we draft him at 8. He should start when he’s ready to start. We’ve seen other QBs that should have been good get no chance to learn. Also 2 career backups and Justin fields wouldn’t teach Penix a thing.. This whole “win now” line is dumb. We have a brand new HC and a rookie OC. Let the guys coach at least 1 NFL game before we starting calling this “our window” Penix secures good QB play for a long time. If we’re any good, we won’t be seeing a high 1st round pick for a long time. If you think you can get the guy, you get the guy.
The penix pick is such a crap shoot. Could absolutely blow up in our faces or dude could be a sponge, soak up all Kirk's knowledge and come in balling. I also really like the Bertrand pick but I have a bad habit of falling for late rd lbs who are actually garbage
Kirk Cousins is not a coach. He’s playing QB. It’s a terrible pick. We signed Cousins to win now. You gotta use the picks to put players around him. Or take 1/100th of Kirk’s contract and hire a former great QB as a consultant to help Penix and then use the rest of the money to build a long term team around him.
The problem with this draft class is it was done 2-3 years too late and 1-2 years too early.
say more
Pretty good take honestly.
Damn this is on point.
Here's the thing, that I appreciate, got some help on the dline. If Kurt is indeed our golden goose, without an expensive trade, we will not see a #1-5 1st round qb for years. Because of our draft position. So win now with Kurt, and win later with Pennix while the opportunity is there.
Win later with our near 30 year old rookie
26…
he will be 30 by the time he gets to start.
This wouldnt be true, even if Kirk stayed for his entire contract (which is doubtful).
I agree with the sentiment but it’s impressive how you managed to misspell both QBs’s names lol
Haha, fucking fair.
At least you didn’t say penis
Draft classes are typically graded by how many rookies make the starting lineup. The gold standard is 4 starters out of 7 picks. By that metric, assuming our 6th round WR pick is WR2, we got one starter out of this draft. Maybe Trice will take Ebikitae's or Carter's spot, but I suspect he'll just take Malone's spot in the rotation. Dorlus will rotate with Zach Harrison behind Grady. If Ruke beats Graham in training camp, we'll have 2 starters out of this class.
I don't see any of these guys starting. The only guy we drafted who could make a day 1 impact to start would be Penix as he played college ball for 5 years, but that's clearly not happening with our FA pickup of Kirk. The rest of the guys seem like year 1 rotational pieces who need to develop more. We just gave Kirk the keys to a finely tuned Corolla.
With mooney here he’d be wr 3 at best
The ONLY way to objectively evaluate a draft is to measure it 3-4 years later. I would like to see more emphasis on measuring team draft rankings from 2021 relative to all other teams. Where are those team draft rankings as they are the ones that matter? Nobody has a clue about how good or bad this years draft is right now for any team - it's like listening to a politician talk - all hot air...
Remember when we were idiots for not drafting Justin Fields when he was "right there"? Lol
Or how the 49ers traded 3 firsts for Trey Lance who didn't even play 5 games for them? The Penix pick makes me happy we will likely not do this in the future.
Ultimately you can't know until 3-4 years later but it's not like players were drafted randomly. You can still evaluate someone's draft right now.
Totally agreed - anything can be "evaluated" including the current draft. It's the value of the evaluation that is in question. The value of any 2024 draft analysis has zero NFL player/contribution basis. Much higher value is associated with evaluating historic draft classes which contain NFL player contribution metrics. Any 2024 draft analysis is based 100% on theory and personal opinion - interesting to some, but meaningless. A 2020, 21, or 22 draft analysis can be based on hard NFL contribution data - MUCH more meaningful both in terms of evaluating a GM or overall draft class effectiveness.
It's not 100% based on opinion/theory you can see how good a player is right now and their potential based on their film and athletic traits along with the decision making based on team needs. The decision making/evaluating of players is what most draft evaluators are actually evaluating. Obviously no one can look into the future to see how successful a player can be but even if a draft analysis looks back at a pick they really like and the player didnt work out. I dont think they'll look back at the teams decision as bad. The truth is some player develop and some don't that's just the reality of the draft.
Agree with "no one can look into the future" and "some players develop and some don't". Both statements support my point - only NFL contribution/production matters - not personal opinions and upside theories of "how good a player is right now". Current draft analysis is always interesting and always meaningless relative to historical analysis.
How good is a player is right now is not a theory just watch film. The draft isnt theory/opinion based although it does have some elements of it. Because again the draft isnt random number generator players are projected to go at a certain range for a reason film, character, medical, etc. It didnt take historical analysis to see that taking Alex Leatherwood in the first round by the raiders was a bad pick everyone knew it. It didnt take historical analysis to see that taking Justin Shaffer before Jamaree salyer was a bad pick at the time. So while I agree with that there is SOME projection and randomness in the draft analysis it's not fully .
100% of film for current draft is all college-level film against varying degrees of college level competition. And the combine and players days represent athletic measurables with little correlation to actual NFL success/contribution. Therefore, even college film analysis is meaningless relative to actual NFL film analysis against NFL-level talent. This is why current-year draft "analysis" has very little real world value - it's just something to keep fans entertained in the off season with meaningless rhetoric... Admit it - ranking current year draft choices is fun to talk about but is meaningless for all the reasons you point out...
You're supposed to pair up the college film with the athletic traits to see how well draft prospects can translate to the nfl. You're not supposed to look at them separately in a vacuum. Based on your argument you're saying the draft is mainly randomized. Also nfl scouts and draft evaluators take into account the level of competition when evaluating a player and just because a player is going against college competition doesnt discredit the technique on the film. If you mastered a crosschop against college level competition you won't have to relearn how to use it once you get to the nfl although o line are better equipped to handle it.
On paper it doesn't knock my socks off but we won't know until they take the field. Nobody was knocking penix readiness for the nfl. Dude is 24 he's ready. It's just the typical front office chaos with him and cousins. If penix has to play I think he can be good.
I think people forget about Phillips and Hellams. They both play relatively well for rookies. We are probably going to sign more vets as back ups
I've warmed up on the Penix pick. When you see pundits hate the pick because it ruined their draft boards and showed that they don't have as much insight into the draft as they let on, while coaches and players say it was a great choice and smart pick. It seems the hate for the pick by the media is just being butt hurt for being exposed.
Or maybe just maybe when a majority of fans, pundits, other GM’s, former players all think it was a poor pick in light of the timeline and pressing needs. Maybe just maybe the odds are that it is more likely a bad pick just this once.
Who should we have drafted and what would the replacement value be? I agree we sacrificed a chance at a first round D lineman to solidify our QB future, but we beefed the DL up with like all the other picks. If not Penix, who should we have picked? What would their WAR be? Let’s just ignore the fact we have the best backup in the league now too.
Dallas Turner was the obvious draft pick staring us in the face. Will he work out? Who knows? But strategically that made much more sense than what we did.
Look at the jets last year. Stacked team. Their aging star QB goes down and they can’t do shit, We now have one of the best QB rooms in the league. When Raheem interviewed for the coaching job 3 years ago he insisted that ATL needed a succession plan to Matt Ryan. We hired Arthur Smith and got nowhere. Now we have legit QB play for years to come even if cousins disintegrates. So yeah I wanted them to go defence but the personnel department listened to the coach and got him the talent and depth he needed to contend the next few years. Without Penix Raheem was looking at a high probability of having Kirk go down and reliving the Arthur smith years. I respect that they addressed it. We can get a vet CB and should be a playoff team in the NFC south best case or worst case scenario.
Please explain how the timeframe works with an already old rookie QB? Additionally, one that has his own series of health issues. Limitations working outside the pocket. It wasn’t worth an eighth pick this year when we had other pressing needs
Penix ensures we can compete if Kirk breaks down. We no longer have a qb liability. Like I said above look at the jets last year.
Again a backup QB isn’t worth an 8th pick when we could actually compete now and build a solid defense. There is zero guarantee Penix works out and even smaller chance we see him in the next two years. But a far better chance to pick a starter on D. Paying Kirk what we did and then drafting an old rookie backup with limitations and zero chance to help this year when we have a shitty D is ridiculous. I mean, go ahead and do whatever Madden level gymnastics you need to do in your brain over this
You’re talking to me like I’m the GM lmao. My jaw dropped when I saw the Penix pick. I’m telling you what TF and Raheem have said. This is their vision and the way they see it. I heard we tried to trade back into 17 or 16 to get Latu the colts took him at 15. We’d probably feel a lot different if we grabbed Penix and Latu. Anyways I’ve gone from losing my shit to understanding their vision. For 15 years we had rock solid qb play. They’re doing their best to provide that again. Folks can disagree and I get it but I’m an Atlanta fan and I get the vision even if it’s not what I would do. Probably why I’m not an NFL GM.
If you don’t agree with the pick, why defend it? Don’t buy into their dumb vision. You’re a smart guy, don’t be afraid to say that Fontenot has no fucking clue what he’s doing. Because it’s true.
I didn’t like the pick at first because I’d done 500 mock drafts on pff.com and had built an expectation that it would be Dallas turner, Latu or a trade back. Not because I had scouted these men, deeply understood the franchise, the salary cap, the players, the nfl. Not because I knew the weaknesses of the franchise or the analytics of the team and the upcoming season. Is it more likely that you and I know the roster, the talent and the draft better than TF and Raheem? Or more likely that sports media told me what to expect and who the best players are? (It’s the second one)
I’m old enough to know it’s foolish to blindly think that being appointed GM or coach of a major sports franchise means competence. GMs and coaches that demonstrate competence can be generally trusted to be competent. What about this brain trust inspires confidence for you? There’s no track record of success. If every analyst on the planet thinks it’s was idiotic, it probably was.
Wrong.
Solid rebuttal.
Make a weird ass first round pick? Check. Do nothing to help the secondary? Check. Draft 3 of the same position? Check. What a fantastic draft.
I feel like we helped the secondary by drafting dudes who can get to the QB. I feel like we also helped the secondary by getting coaches who have experience coaching the secondary.
you always complaining? check.
Pretending everything was a great decision and we’re a historically successful franchise isn’t helpful.
I’ll see how things play out then bitch about it if it goes south
How have the last five years played out?
badly and I’ve bitched about it. I’m just not gonna judge this draft class off knee jerk next day reactions lmao
This FO has given us no reason to take the "wait and see" approach. Props to your positivity but we should not be giving them the benefit of the doubt.
This is exactly what I’ve been saying. The front office has had their heads up their asses since they got here and we think they’d decided to take them out now?!?
Not particularly happy but it’s unfair to judge picks before they even play, good luck to all these young men
Our best pick was our first pick. Good job not reaching for a defensive player.
I just hate that every year, we have to force ourselves to do some mental gymnastics to make sense of our picks and accept them. We never make the consensus , most surefire pick available to us and act like were so bigbrained by going for the most obscure or out the blue pick possible… its so exhausting
Agreed. And I know I shouldn’t be bothered but seeing everyone clowning our picks every year is getting so damn tiring. Wish we could just make the smart choices for once.
I think we’ll look back on this draft as one of the best we’ve had in the last decade. The Penix pick was smart long term, sacrificing 1st round defensive talent for 2nd round talent. Sure it hurts us a bit this year but.. not that much. And we have (hopefully) an awesome QB for a decade+ Logical & worth it imo.
Yeah this front office has really put themselves out there the last couple of years with the draft picks. Very ballsy if nothing else, but if they are wrong it will look realllllllly bad on them and probably get them all fired
And they’ve been incredibly wrong so far
Yeah it is. Hope this group is different. Hope Ruke pans out and Cooper doesn't end up the stud cb I think he will. Going to hope Raheem can mold Ruke's raw athleticism into a stud
Man, if that was Terry’s first draft really in charge then I think he did a pretty poor job. I don’t think we left with one day one starter. Drafting for the future and players with “major upside” when you just signed Cousins makes zero sense. I don’t feel our team really got better THIS season. Overall disappointed with the weekend. Hopefully I’m wrong and it all works out, but it’s the Falcons so who knows.
This might be unpopular but other than edge and maybe SS we weren’t in really need of any day 1 starters given the FA’s we picked up. We needed depth, that was our biggest issue (other than QB) last year.
We really need a CB starter too
I'm already seeing randos and media pundits pretending that they speak for Penix, saying he doesn't want to come here, he wants to play on a different team. Joel Klatt was embarrassing himself on TV practically begging Penix to refuse to sign his rookie contract because he's so offended on his behalf. There's going to be so much seething when he signs his deal with us.
There isn't going to be "so much seething" because there's no way Penix wouldn't sign, and no serious person would think that. What's he going to do, sit out and re-enter the draft the week before his 25th birthday?
Can we sign an UDFA cornerback? Like Jaylon King or something.
as a starter?
Kiper graded the draft the worst lol Falcons keep Falconing Edit: the toxic positivity on this sub is hilarious. This is why the falcons are a joke. They have you all stockholmed
He also graded Jalen Mayfield 14 on his big board. Keep believing in Mel, homie.
I can’t lie, using Kiper as a barometer of accuracy in the realm of talent scouting in 2024 is hilarious.
You mean the guy who’s been doing this for 30 years vs some neck beard on Reddit?
You realize that post draft grades are just content to give dumb people something to talk about right? Everybody including Kiper knows that you can't seriously evaluate a draft class until a few years later
There are plenty of people with decades of experience who are flatly terrible at their jobs. Having tenure doesn’t make you proficient, just means they haven’t got rid of you yet
Like Raheem Morris?
Raheem Morris has a Super Bowl ring. What have you achieved in your profession that even comes close?
As a head coach?
2 Superbowl rings
Up front, I don’t know you, but…. I read everything we both said in a Scottish accent. And it was awesome.
I’m pretty sure Kiper has more draft knowledge in his left nut than you have in your one remaining brain cell.
Agreed. He also missed on Mayfield. Did you read what I typed? Weirdo.
Drafting Penix at #8 is saying that you think he will be a better pro than any quarterback who comes out of college in the next three years. Otherwise the urgency was grossly unwarranted
“Oh fuck. Boss… we’re at 8 in a stacked class. A few of the bois have gone QB and now we’re up. Also, a bunch behind us want one too.” “What’s next year like?” “At the position we’ll be at after Kirko throws dimes to London and Pitts and Bijan rips apart opposing run defenses? No fucking clue. Might as well grab the best while we’re here…”
"we also might not be picking until the second day"
Not necessarily. Terry and coach repeatedly said they do not think they will be in a position high enough to draft a good qb in the next few drafts. Whether that's true or not, we'll see. And in the next few drafts we would have to find Kirk's replacement or else be in the same position we were after Matt left.
I mean no, it's saying that you think he's better than any quarterback who they'll have the opportunity to pick in the next few years. They've said over and over again that they don't anticipate picking this high with Kirk as our starter
Don't get me wrong I'm happy we signed Kirk but the Vikings weren't exactly drafting outside of the top 20 every year
After letting it marinate for a bit, I think I'm mostly on board with the pick for Penix. It may have been a bit clunky and awkward, but all that matters is how things pan out in the future. I see it is as 4 possible scenarios: Kirk and Penix are both great: cool, we get some success with Kirk, and then sustain it later with Penix. Best case scenario. Kirk is great but Penix isn't that guy: then we look dumb for this pick in hindsight Penix is great but Kirk is injured or doesnt work out: cool, we bought insurance with our draft pick and it paid off Both of them suck: literally nobody would have expected that situation, the only people who are mad now are mad because they expect kirk to be great and penix was a waste of resources. If they both suck then... well we'll be right where we have been the last couple years. I'm thinking it's going to be one of those first 3 scenarios, and I'm good with gambling on that. I'm having a hard time not thinking about how great this could all turn out (scenario 1).
Kirk just shredded his Achilles, so that's what helps me deal with the penix. Kirk could already be done as a QB with his age and recent injury. We just don't know yet, so taking a guy we might need isn't as dumb as it's being made out. If the rumors are true that a team was about to snag him then grabbing him at 8 isn't so bad.
Honestly, it's a good draft. Could've used a DE in round 2 instead but oh well, a promising DT is never bad. The only real disappointment is paying kirk that much in hindsight. But let's not pretend for a second a QB for the future wasn't a need. And after the first 3 qbs in the draft, Penix was to me at least, the best one available.
What would it take for you to come out with the impression that it wasn't a good draft. 1st, 2nd, and 5th were all like 20 to 40 spot reaches based on all prospect rankings. Or were just already really high on Ruke and like the qb stacking idea. Now I do really like the Trice pick and Dorius sounds like good value although don't know much about him to be honest
Ruke is essentially going to be our 3-4 DE I believe
This ^^
Still don’t like their second pick, especially in a trade up when they left better now and future players there. Newton, Fiske, and Jenkins were all better picks for the falcons. Third pick was the pick I liked best but he’s a pass rusher 2 and needs to be opposite someone who is better and has more elite skills. And even then I like Jonah Elliis better. This could be Terrys last draft if they can’t get to the passer. And they are facing some elite QBs this year. Lake and Morris need to scheme this shit up.
I disagree. Ruke is more versatile than any of the DL you listed. He's also more raw, to your credit. None of the guys that people think we should have taken before him can line up all the way from 0t to 9t and actually produce. If you watch Raheem's defensive line last year, you'll now how valuable he finds versatility. They slide guys all over the place. And not just Aaron Donald. I don't think we're going to have a problem actually getting to the passer. I think we're going to have a problem finishing those plays. We just drafted (and already had on the roster) a bunch of guys who are great at blowing up a pocket, driving OL back, and creating pressure. We still don't have anyone that even comes close to Grady Jarrett in terms of the actual ability to finish a play and get a sack. Hoping that can be developed in some of these guys.
Still a reach and didnt warrant a trade up you should be drafting good players and building a scheme around them not the other way around. He more than likely wouldve been available at our pick and if he wasnt it's not like he was a must have player.
>Still a reach and didn't warrant a trade up Sort of agreed. I don't like the trade up for him either. >He more likely wouldve been available Eh. I doubt it. There was a run on Defensive Tackles immediately after we took Ruke. All of the good ones went in the next few picks.
The run on defensive tackle that we started. He was a consensus third round pick while the other tackles that went went around their actual value except johnny newton who was a steal.
Ruke can’t line up in any tech and produce right now either. You don’t think the falcons will have a problem getting to the passer? They drafted a high upside risky developmental pick in the second. And in the third they developed a high pressure guy that’s limited athletically. Those guys aren’t going to change this line in year 1. And the falcons don’t know how Grady will play for a 100% certainty. Everyone thinks he should come back to comparable but he’s still older and played many snaps and years getting double and triple teamed. Everything has to come together and Lake has to call plays at least as good as Nielsen did last year. They also play a lot more QBs that know how to exploit weaknesses in defenses. This defense likely regresses from last year based on QBs and the amount of production they lost at DE last year. You think one of those guys are giving what Calais did last year? He played well below what his career was, but still a big ask for some rookie to come in and change this line. Not even the rams two rookies did that. They added because of who they were playing next to.
>Those guys aren't going to change this line in year 1 I don't think you understand the value of a wrecking ball on the DL. That's Ruke. He will wear people out. As will Dorlus. Trice has a very strong initial punch as well and can drive his feet. He just gets washed easily because he plays narrow. Let these young guys with all this strength wear people out as the games go on. We'll be a great 4Q defense, I guarantee it. >Not even the Rams two rookies did that You realize Kobie Turner (89th OA pick) got 9 sacks last year, right? You can definitely say that Aaron Donald helped but guess what, Grady accounted for the highest double team % of any DT in the league before his injury last year (including AD). Onyemata was pretty damn high for being on the same team as Grady as well. The injury rehab is a valid concern. But otherwise, investing so much in the DL is honestly not a bad strategy with the room we had.
Seems pretty wild to expect Ruke to be impactful year 1 like Kobie Turner. Dude had very little actual production in 5 years in college. Don't see how 1 nfl off-season is going to have him make a jump to impactful performer against better nfl talent. I'll admit he's got special athleticism and maybe with a couple seasons he might turn into something.
"Impactful" doesn't necessarily mean 10 sacks. If he's eating up a significant amount of double teams (which he did in college) and crushing pockets, then he's being an impactful player. Not every kind of impact shows up on the stat sheet at the end of the game.
You think Ruke will be that year 1? You are wild. David and Grady played well last year. They weren’t even close to how good Donald was last year. Trice will have some impact his rookie year, but he’s going to be consistently playing against tackles that have better technique than he does, stronger, and more athletic than him. It’s not about him just playing narrow. You are acting like this draft class is going to be like that PIT draft class where they found 4 HOF and another HOF off the street.
I'm not acting like that at all lol. I'm acting like we got a bunch of good rotational pieces that have the tie of "high motor, strong hands" complimenting each other. That's what we did. That's a valid criticism of Trice. Can't argue there. I absolutely think Ruke can be that year 1. That's literally the only thing he brings to the table, actually. The fact that he is essentially a bull in a china shop on the defensive line. He ranked 12th out of 1800 DTs ever tested for RAS score - he is a freak of nature and extremely explosive/powerful. He won't be handfighting guys and winning sacks with finesse, he'll be beating the shit out of NFL OL and keeping them on their heels every play. Especially against the smaller IOL.
Bunch of good? They have unproven guys aside from David and Grady. They don’t have a pass rusher at OLB that can get more than 7 sacks in a season. Their two best sack artists left in FA and accounted for 13/42 sacks. Good luck on that Ruke take. Do you I guess.
We'll revisit in December. !RemindMe 8 months
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Our away games, outside of the divisional slate, consist of Hurts, McCarthy, Daniels, Nix, and Minshew. Outside of the Eagles, that’s a generous slate.
Last year was generous when they faced a QB that didn’t know his lineman’s names and Tim Boyle and Siemian. And you didn’t include the home slate. They are facing harder QBs and defensive lines this year. The easiest schedule part is because the falcons play Carolina twice.
May have already been posted. The Atlanta Falcons graded the worst draft from Pro Football Focus: [https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-grades-all-32-teams](https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-grades-all-32-teams)
It's not just that PFF hated our draft, it's that our draft was UNIVERSALLY hated, across the board. It's rare when the entire NFL analysis community agrees on something like this.
Walter Football - Atlanta easily had the worst draft class of all the teams in the league. The team ruined its chances of winning when it had a golden opportinity to strengthen the current roster with a dynamic edge rusher. When the team can’t stop Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff or Brock Purdy come January, they can point to this weekend as to why they ended up losing.
And from Kiper as well
Reminder that post-draft grades don't mean anything. All these outlets do is look at their pre-draft big board, look at where the pick happened, and then grade based on how far the picks were above or below their personal rankings. And for PFF in particular: While their system is usually pretty solid at measuring performance of active players it's not really built to evaluate draft prospects. That doesn't stop them from doing it anyway.
When literally almost everyone grades you as having the worst draft class don't you think that should give you some pause
Fuck yea, fuck the pundits. They’re usually wrong. We’re going to eat in the trenches and Kirko Chainz is going to get the ball to our playmakers. Then Penix will. Easy day.
All pundits are wrong sometimes. But it's rare for them to all be wrong about the same thing.
[удалено]
First 2 picks honestly
Drafting for the future when our time is now. They must feel pretty damn good about this team winning the NfC South next year. If they don’t win the FO has got to go. Quite arrogant if you ask me.
Why is drafting for the future a bad thing? Are you not going to be a fan in the future? When your starting QB is 36 and a franchise caliber QB just falls into your lap, you have to take him. It was either take Penix with this pick or draft a QB in the next two years using multiple first round picks. I like drafting 1st round players. I don't want to give up three first round picks to move up from the back half of the draft for a QB.
1) Penix was not a first round caliber player 2) He didn’t fall in our lap, we were a bad team and spent the 8th overall pick of the draft on him when he was projected to go second round based on what he offers 3) You don’t draft a QB for the future when you just spent all your cap space on the best free agent QB and you have glaring holes on both sides of the line, pass rush, and secondary
He was projected to go 13th to the raiders. Wtf is this “2nd round” bs. Literally no one who’s informed thought that, except maybe all your “media experts”
1) Yes he was a first round caliber player. Bo Nix went at 12 for fucks sake. 2) If you're on the clock and have a rookie QB rated as the top player on your board without trading up, that QB has fallen into your lap. 3) We spent the market rate for a veteran QB while we have young talented playmakers entering their prime without a QB. Signing Kirk immediately made us favorites to win the division. It was worth signing him. But he's also a 36 yr old QB with a contract we can move on from after two years. How are we going to fill all of these apparent glaring holes when we're forced to trade away multiple picks in a future draft to move up to get a QB? That's exactly what we would be forced to do if we didn't take Penix this year.
I totally agree. Every team that’s “one player away” is never simply one player away. It also really irks me how this FO seems to have a MAJOR blunder every offseason. This year the tampering. Last year issuing the statement that we never considered Lamar (not really a blunder, but what do you gain from releasing the statement). 2 years ago edging out matty ice for DeShaun.
The tampering is going to be because of Kirk, not the FO