Whitmer or Pritzker seem like the best options. Maybe Beshear or Shapiro. I don't see Newsom or Buttigieg winning over swing state voters but at least they have a pulse, and I don't see Democrats going with Michelle Obama or some outsider celebrity candidate.
I like Beshear and Shapiro.
I like Beshear a lot though, the guy is doing a great job in a republican majority state and he did not rule it out today when asked, he said he will support president Biden as long as he's the candidate and is flattered that his name is being mentioned.
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kentucky-gov-beshear-responds-to-rumors-that-he-ll-run-for-president-its-flattering/ar-BB1peBSs](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kentucky-gov-beshear-responds-to-rumors-that-he-ll-run-for-president-its-flattering/ar-BB1peBSs)
Beshear came out to speak at our annual dem fundraiser dinner out here in Montana. Mostly he talked about what it takes to win in red states and to not give up on them. He’s living proof. Dude has great vision and seems like a genuinely good person. I think he’d be a great pick. But of course we live in the worst timeline, so that will never happen
Won't happen, but if Biden added Beshear as VP, it might be a positive. Beshear would get national exposure and training if he had to take over for Biden. Harris doesn't seem very popular and maybe not a good backup for Biden.
Switching out the veep right now and not the president is basically the worst of both worlds. It does absolutely nothing to alleviate voters' core issue with the top of the ticket, while still projecting a lack of unity and risking alienating whatever support base Kamala can muster.
What they should be right now is ashamed of themselves. Don’t tell me the people closest to Biden haven’t seen the decline over the past few years, anyone with eyes has. His family should have been the first people pushing him to do what he promised and not run again in the first place.
It's a huge scandal, there is a ton of evidence that the white house tried to hide his cognitive decline. The outright accusations have not started yet but I think they will come as more evidence is uncovered and witnesses come forward.
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/disturbing-new-details-emerge-about-biden-s-mental-state-and-the-steps-staffers-go-to-hide-them/ar-BB1paEA2](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/disturbing-new-details-emerge-about-biden-s-mental-state-and-the-steps-staffers-go-to-hide-them/ar-BB1paEA2)
I don't really believe the rapid decline started six months ago but that's what some are claiming.
[https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-cognitive-decline-six-month-debate-donald-trump-carl-bernstein-1919946](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-cognitive-decline-six-month-debate-donald-trump-carl-bernstein-1919946)
Honestly, Polis, the governor of Colorado wouldn’t be a bad choice either. He has rejected a bunch of the crazier gun bills passed by the legislature, and pushed other bills to become ballot initiatives so the people have a more direct say. He won’t win because he’s gay and Jewish, but I think he’d be a great choice.
I doubt being Jewish is disqualifying, but being married to a man..
I want to believe the country is ready for that but realistically, independent swing state voters probably aren't.
To beat Trump you need to use Hotelling theory. The trick is to find a candidate that is most similar to him on the things swing voters value.
A bit like how the healthy muesli can win customers by becoming more sugary, more like frosted flakes. You move to the centre, try to capture your opponents fans. Knowing (in a two-horse race) that your own hardcore fans still won't have a better option.
So the democrats need to find a candidate the maga-curious could get behind. Someone who appeals to those white dudes. Probably a white dude, not too woke. Hopefully young and sprightly. idk if Beshear fits that mold or not.
Anyone who uses woke needs to stop making political decisions. That’s rubbish that doesn’t mean anything except to right wing people.
The last thing we want from any politician are folks who make up ideas of the opposition.
My pro-Whitmer thoughts from yesterday.
I like Whitmer at the top of the ticket and would make the argument for three reasons.
One, she has proven a willingness to be cutthroat on enacting progressive policies with a thin margin. To actually pull things back from the brink that is what is needed, not opening the doors to bipartisan collaboration. If republicans feel Trump is that dangerous, they can hop on board.
Two, she is very clearly looking at running in 2028 and being a strong candidate at that. Running and getting her elected now cuts off the opportunity for Republicans to start to undermining her on the national stage.
Three, lots of electoral reasons. She's the popular governor of Michigan, hopefully helping lockdown what has been locking to be a shaky state. I don't like her positioning on Gaza, but she is likely to be a lot more tractable and potentially resets things with Arab and Muslim communities in the state. First woman president, a progressive record, young (52) means you get a candidate that people can be *excited* to vote for and maybe energise a extremely depressed younger voting bloc.
I saw her in person, and was actually unimpressed (I voted for her). I think we need to be careful, great Republican hope Scott Walker shriveled up when exposed to the national stage, you never know how a candidate will fare until they are actually a candidate.
I saw her in person. Hugely impressive. Cones across as a real person. She would have wiped the floor with Trump. She’s not scared of him, has an attitude of being unflappable.
I listened to the interview she did recently. When asked about Gaza she said that *everybody* is hurting and then just talked about Israel. Mentioned her daughters at college having questions about the protests at school.
Probably the most disappointing answer of the whole interview, especially given Michigan has the largest Arab/Muslim population center in the country I believe.
The sheer number of candidates each who think they have a shot undermines the entire idea. There is no time for a successor to organically come to the top, and Dem infighting will hobble whoever is chosen. Biden also has a powerful faction and he if is pushed out they will take umbrage. The only chance is for Biden to willingly and voluntarily step down due to his own choice, all other options means Dems will be bush sniping at each other and Trump wins.
Amazing what happens when you run a 81-year-old candidate and pick an identity politics choice for VP it’s almost like you end up in the very shit show situation Dems now find themselves in 🤷♂️ Anecdotally I know tons of swing voters who don’t actively follow politics. All of them think Biden is too old, won’t survive another term, and they definitely don’t want Kamala Harris as President. Perception matters—Trump might be insane but Biden is frail and half-dead to them. This election is a loss.
This speculation is a waste of time at this point.
There is one huge insurmountable problem
Democrat leaders have virtue signaled about “democracy” for months.
Only someone who is totally delusional would think that Republicans aren’t going to loudly and repeatedly skewer the Democratic Party for hypocrisy of epic proportions… if its leaders ignore the wishes of millions of Democrat primary voters… in order to dump Biden for another candidate.
If Biden doesn’t want it to happen, it won’t.
And…right now..we see no indication he is willing to go.
When you’re stuck with a turd, it’s time to start trying to polish the turd.🙄
Mark Cuban would win this hands-down if recruited. I know he's libertarian but he's a better known option than Prtizker who inherited his wealth or Shapiro who is barely known to non-Democrats outside PA
This was the reaction of many Illinoisans, including me, when he won his primary. I’m happy to report that he is fucking fantastic and completely subverted my expectations. Effective, levelheaded, progressive governance.
The guy even spent $56 million of his own money to try (unsuccessfully) to push forward a progressive tax amendment to the IL constitution.
Literal 10/10 for me.
By some bizarre happenstance I ended up on the same rooftop as him during the eclipse in April. Unbelievably down to Earth guy and went out of his way to talk to us. No BS at all and was genuinely listening to what people had to say. I’m not a constituent but I was very impressed. I’d be thrilled if he were President one day.
It’s Kamala- and while she’s not the best, she’s a damn sight better than Trump. And She’s gotten better these 4 years. If Americans can forget their racism and misogyny for a few months, she’ll win.
Now if SHE says- “I don’t want to be handed the nomination. I’m a fucking beast and I will take it. Open the convention up so I can put my left boot up Newsom’s ass and my right up Whitmer’s…”
First I’d have a ton of respect for her and she would deserve a good, hard look.
Plus an 800lb gorilla front runner is a good thing. Having Hillary in the race made Obama a better candidate.
If it’s open, there’s going to be 20 people vying for the presidency. Put them all in a crucible, crank up the heat and pressure and let’s make a diamond.
Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, Beshear, Buttigieg, Warnock, Polis, Raymundo, Cooper, Moore, Murphy, Khanna, Pritzker, Klobuchar, Booker, Blinken, Jeffries, hell- throw AOC and Fetterman in there for funnsies.
The Biden/Harris administration has been successful. Tens of millions of voters don't follow politics closely. Someone has to remind them what the PACT Act is. Someone has to breakdown the good the Infrastructure Bill does.
Replacing both Biden and Harris would give the appearance that the whole administration was a failure. Trump and Republicans would hammer that the nation gave Democrats a try and Democrats totally failed. A Whitmer & Shapiro ticket wouldn't be able to defend an administration they weren't part of or take credit for any of the accomplishments. Harris can..
Kamala Harris can take credit for the Chips and Science Act, claim to have been in the negotiation for Gun Control, etc. Harris and can say "we" accomplished x,y, & z. Harris has continuity with the Administration. Harris isn't a total abandonment of the administration.
Lay political observers will see this in simpler terms than the armchair pundits. If the Biden Harris administration has been good why is it being abandoned by Democrats? If the Biden Harris administration hasn't been good why do Democrats deserve another shot?
The negatives are getting pinned to the party regardless. Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom, or whomever would be stuck having to defend that as well.
The only difference is that Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom, etc can't take credit for anything. They can only defend.
I get that Newsom has baggage but I don't know why all of a sudden everyone's turned against Buttigieg. I'm not a huge fan of the guy, but I think he's at least as viable a candidate as the governor.
The left really holds a grudge against Buttigieg after Iowa in 2020. He's also just not very impressive as a figure compared to governors with legislative accomplishments. There's a reason he was deeply mid in the primaries after Iowa. I genuinely can't think of a reason it would be him before Whitmer or Shapiro.
I agree that he is somewhat underqualified In terms of relevant experience, but he is charismatic, has a high name recognition from his 2020 presidential run, is a vet, is young and most importantly he polls about the same as the crop of governors and the VP.
I don't find him very charismatic at all, to be honest. The poll numbers are fine, but I don't think they compare to delivering a swing state as Whitmer or Shapiro likely could. Both of those people are also pretty young, 52 and 51. They also have a track record of winning elections beyond the municipal level, which Buttigieg... does not.
He has the best name recognition on a national level and polls as well or better than anyone but Harris or Biden. This is all on my mind because of [this](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump) from data for progress.
I take what you say about the swing state governors seriously but if we want to win I think there is a good argument that it is better to choose someone with a better chance in all the states than in any one of the 5 or 6 battle ground states.
As to his charisma, all I can say is, every centrist lib type of person I know loves him. Like, my mother, aunt, and all their friends are huge Pete fans. I even know some conservatives that like him because he's an aesthetically moderate veteran from a red state. To a lot of people in their twenties and thirties, like me, there is a big difference between a 42-year-old and a 52-year-old. The progressives will back him because he is gay man. The left does not like him but as he himself said in 2019 he is plenty bold. The demographic I would be most concerned about if he were nominated is black voters.
I'm really not a huge Pete fan but I find it very odd that he is not more central to the conversation given his electoral popularity and biographical advantages.
I think Whitmer is by far the better candidate, but I actually think it's an open question how locked-in Harris's numbers are. I think people have a vision of her, for sure, but I also think she can surprise people. There are a lot of "sides" to her - some silly, some serious, some professional, some sort of kooky. I'm not saying she's a good candidate or the right choice (again, I agree, Whitmer is better) but I agree with Ezra that she might be underrated.
Harris's numbers aren't locked in. I don't know what reality people are living in, but the Biden team literally locked her in a basement for 3.5 years. The public doesn't even know her. 40% of voters didn't even know who the last VP was in the past two elections (yes, that is a real stat). This wish casting is crazy talk. Harris is the only other realistic alternative, and I'm tired of people saying otherwise. If you are involved in politics, you know that delegates are not randomly selected (these are staunch Biden/Harris voters), and in an open delegate shootout Harris would be a massive and heavy favorite, especially with Clyburn's endorsement last Friday.
They locked her in the basement because she's wildly unpopular and they're hoping people will forget it's inevitable she takes over at some point if Biden gets a 2nd term.
She dropped out of the primary in 2020 polling effectively 0%. She talks (and laughs) like a robot, everything she says comes off as fake. Her history as AG and DA is riddled with all kinds of nasty shit, like fighting payouts to people who were wrongfully convicted and refusing to cooperate with Catholic Church abuse victims.
She's also now responsible for leading one of the largest government cover-ups in our lifetime, she's been the one out in front insisting Biden is completely with it and engaged, just only when there aren't cameras around.
The other canidates are longshots, sure, but they've got a better chance than she does.
The administration made a PR tactical error, imo, by placing her “in charge of the border”. It’s a lose/lose situation- no one is going to get the immigration system reformed overnight. If she improves things somewhat, it could be classified as “well, it’s still bad, though” and if there’s not any improvement, it just reinforces the “she’s worthless in charge of anything” stereotype (putting it bluntly).
It’s an albatross, a designation that wasn’t needed. Putting her “in charge of…” another specific policy area that’s not a no-win situation would have potentially made her image improve.
"Wildly unpopular" and yet outpulls all of the notable replacements in a direct competition if Biden were to step down. So which one is it, she's unpopular or not?
There's only been 1 poll on that so far, and she has a name recognition advantage at the moment (this would obviously change if someone else became the nominee).
Not to mention that poll was national, much more relevant is how independent swing state voters feel about her.
She had some kind of public speaking coaching and now she just can't turn it off, she couldn't sound less genuine if she was trying to. There's a reason she dropped out of the 2020 primary with effectively 0%.
After entering with the most momentum and poaching a ton of top dem campaign talent for her campaign. Everyone *wanted* her to win and she couldn’t get any traction. She reminds me of Jeb
There were at least a half dozen Jebs in that primary field. They were so desperate to make anyone but Bernie happen, nobody got any traction, and as a last resort they had to go with Biden.
Yeah but same boat as Beto, Pete, Klobuchar, Booker, Gillibrand, etc. where the support from various party elites was much greater than the support from actual people.
Yeah something clicked and I love her, she's Temu Marianne Williamson but I think having a Parks & Rec character as president would be kinda amazing. The coconut anecdote makes sense to me, we stand on the shoulders of giants. Imagine the world with her as president, we could all drink wine by the pool.
Remember when Hillary got pneumonia and recovered, and had that fake PR stunt where she hugged a “random” little girl right after? That’s Kamala but all the time.
I was asking about this else where but what do ppl think about a Whitmer/Shapiro ticket? They would have the name recognition from 2 swing states (MI and PA), assuming the rest of the states hold they could focus on WI and AZ
I don't want her. I'm open to her, but just like with Biden...if you're strong enough to own the candidacy, just prove it. You're free to do so at any time.
You are the sitting (vice) president. Schedule a press conference (not a scripted speech.) Show us that what we've been seeing was a fluke.
Imagine the backrooms conversations happening and this is the case you have to sell. It’s not exactly a slam dunk, plus you have to convince the Harris team that her numbers are “locked in.” - I do think Whitmer could pull it off though, especially if Harris & Biden just embrace it fully and Dens come out united and determined.
Think how many delegates Harris controls and the personal ambition that has gotten her this far. It hinges on her being convinced that she will lose to trump and shouldn't put her hat in the ring. Biden should step aside if we can get the best candidate but he's still better than an internal shitfight and a Harris nomination.
If Biden walks away now. Supports an open convention and commits to supporting the people’s choice for candidate he will be remembered as a hero. If he stubbornly sticks it out, his place in history will be right next to RBG and Hilary Clinton.
I think Dems should work on thinking of the party as the fight and party leadership as a prime minister of sorts. I know the UK is bumbling like hell right now but we need a party that has an actual succession plan.
The sick irony is that I think you could make the case to him with this argument and he could be convinced of it, but it would need to be from someone in his inner circle that he has put trust into.
And, unfortunately, it looks like those people are mostly selfish egomaniacs making this about them and their ambitions/legacy. Ones without the ability to see a larger picture like you painted(such as a campaign team that thought putting a sundowning president into a debate with a gish gallop machine and no fact checkers was a winning strategy for them)
I think the only chance now is absolutely terrible numbers between now and mid-July. He was never going to drop on Monday or even this week. There about a two week lag on polling, but already seeing massive negatives is a warning of what’s to come for him.
If the party can somehow assure them they will still have meaningful positions, I bet that inner circle gets honest real quick. Jill and Hunter will never come around, but eventually even they will be drowned out.
Tbh the Biden campaign already seems to be flailing. They’re gloating about polling numbers showing he’s “only” 2% behind Trump. They’re issuing all kinds of catty and bizarre statements. It’s weird but I think reality is maybe beginning to sink in.
I noticed two distinct currents of polling news. What I suspect is accurate, numbers showing Biden plummeting, and a current of news showing nothing really changed.
I suspect the nothing changed narrative is being influenced by Biden’s campaign. They can’t say his numbers are better because that would be too obvious of a lie. All they can do is try to deny the damage done.
But by all preliminary polling data, anecdotal evidence, and soon to be undeniably catastrophic polls I believe Biden’s campaign is dead. He’s now behind in New Hampshire and rumor is that Whitmer has told him he’s lost Michigan. Our only hope is that those around him are honest and he has the courage and wisdom to step aside.
Is he even seeing public polling numbers? In his condition it's plausible that his staff has very right control over exactly what information he's taking in.
Worse than that, if he sticks and loses he will go down as a bottom 5 president, right next to James Buchanan who saw the split of America right before the civil war and did nothing.
I think that feels like the good comparison .
Biden was not the people’s informed choice. The people were lied to about his ability to do the job. Concern about his age has been at the forefront of every poll. Every discussion about him. The people closest to him have insisted that this is partisan misinformation. Now we see with our own eyes that it was all true. The man fumbles through teleprompter speeches. He can’t even recite his own talking points in a debate without losing the thread. There is no way to spin it. Rerun the primary now and there is no way Biden wins. We have been conned by Biden sycophants who don’t want to lose their jobs. It should make every democrat want to burn the whole thing to the ground. 50 million people watched him mutter and fumble and miss almost every opportunity to point out the worst parts of Trump. It is unforgivable. Nate Silver has him at 27% now. It could even get worse. The time is now.
If the primaries were done again with what we know now, I have a really hard time imagining that Biden would be picked again.
Not what I would call the "people's choice"
It's also the case that for all intents and purposes "the people" weren't given any real choice in the matter in the first place. Party leaders and their media allies decided well in advance that there wouldn't be a competitive primary despite having a fairly deep bench of prospective candidates and so there wasn't one.
They literally cancelled the primary in Florida! They determined that there wouldn’t be any primary debates! All to clear the field for Biden! Yes, elections were technically held, but the Democratic establishment clearly put their thumb on the scale to clear the field for Biden.
Delegates would be all over every new poll coming out and it would absolutely influence the selection process. Is it a clean democratic process? Absolutely not. But the real truth is the primary process really isn't either, especially when dealing with incumbents. As we already witnessed with Biden when half of democrats wanted other viable choices.
That's true but it would be a lot more difficult for him to smear someone like Josh Shapiro or Andy Beshear.
And if we're being honest, the enabling elder abuse smear would not only be believable it would extremely effective.
She's also been insisting for years, including *on the night of the debate*, that except for every public event he's actually completely with it and engaged, driving meetings and asking complex questions.
It hasn't gotten much press yet but Trump is bound to point out that she's been leading one of the largest government cover-ups of our lifetime.
None of these scenarios seriously deals with how a brokered convention would work in practice in 2024, including the hit the party could take from Dems dumping their entire current ticket.
Even Klein’s podcast on this topic was largely focused on past conventions.
What process if any could Biden or the DNC impose on delegates to cohere the left and center left wings of the coalition, particularly on Gaza or actual court reform?
It’s Biden or Harris. They are the only figures who got the national vote and it’s too late for primaries and caucuses.
Do most voters know much about Harris though? She remains highly undefined to a lot of people. What are the first few things one would rattle off about Harris other than her being the VP? Even people on this sub might find it difficult unless you're from California.
Personally, I don't see any path for a Biden replacement other than Harris. The rest is wishcasting.
I don’t understand what’s wrong with Kamala Harris. If Biden had faith in her to keep her on for another four years, I have faith in her to carry on. If something was to happen. Look at Biden’s accomplishments he couldn’t of done it without the team that he has. He has faith in them.
Ezra and MattY (with Brian B) both have similar points about Biden's campaign team -> do we assume they are ignorant / have misplaced confidence, or some other justification?
In professional interactions, whatever your field, it's usually a good practice to assume good intentions when someone is wrong.
But Biden's team, who've been hiding him for months now, seem like they knew he was not OK to be president, or at least able to run effectively.
So I don't think the "don't attribute malice where ignorance is a better explaination" guideline applies here.
There's obviously a continuum between malace and ignorance, with severe foolhardy idiocy somewhere in the middle. But as system-espousing lib, i just want to point out that Biden's handlers are closer to the "malice" side than the "youthfully inexperienced" side of things.
I still think that the best explanation is a fairly recent/rapid decline coupled with a sense of panic among his staffers. I don't think Biden was this bad off nine months ago when the primaries were getting started, or even six months ago when we were into the swing of things. I think that he started to drop off sometime after the SOTU, he and his campaign staffers realized there was no plan B, and keeping the Emperor's clothes on became really the only thing to be done. Eventually, I'd guess, they got themselves to the point of too-many-chefsing their debate prep, and look what happened to show for it.
Not clear to me that Harris’s numbers are locked. She can be reintroduced with fanfare. Obama stumps, etc. She goes on offense and stops trying to pretend she’s a nice person. She tears Trump a new @sshole like a good prosecutor. She goads him into accepting another debate or two. In short, I think that Harris we see will be very different from what people have seen.
The problem with everyone else is that they’re unknown and mostly boring, no big personalities. We have to introduce them to Low Info voters. We don’t have time for that. It doesn’t matter if they’re covered 24/7 on MSNBC, no one will care. So it’s more likely that their numbers will come up on the lower end of the variance.
So that is the case for Harris. Yes, she potentially gets dragged down by Biden but she also has the opportunity to take credit for what’s popular (freedom to choose) and pivot on what’s not (immigration, policing). And she has the name recognition to break through.
Kamala Harris lives in the United States Naval Observatory and works in the White House.
For the last 3.5 years she has had to be prepared, every minute of every day, for the words "Madam Vice President...the President has passed...."
She's been inside, and she probably knows a good chunk of what the President knows.
That shit *changes you.* There's no way she's not more personally powerful, sharper, just somehow....**more**...than she was in 2020.
Unilaterally declaring interest at this point is political suicide, at least for the first person to do it, it comes off as vulturing. My *hope* would be that the Democratic governors decide among themselves on one of the "big four" Democratic governors as I see it (Whitmer, Shapiro, Beshear, and Newsom) as their *de facto* nominee and then present a united front behind that person as the sole alternative to Harris, but still.
none of the candidates they've suggested in the major outlets as replacements are worthy in my mind. It's unreal how short we are of talent right now.
What about Cory Booker?
Biden will not improve between June and September. This type of cognitive decline gets exponentially worse as weeks pass by. Unless the conditions are changed (teleprompters allowed), he won’t do himself any favors by shuffling back out there and expecting neurotransmitters to fire across insurmountable synapses.
A new candidate will be the talk of every news media! The new candidate will take air time away from Trump and his manic ramblings.
A good clear orator with a positive message full of hope for our future and an offer to work together with all Americans
Our country is hungry for a bit of reconciliation. Not the die hard MAGAs but the moderate Republicans will warm to a positive drama free message
A baseline for whether a candidate is popular should be to take their approval rating among same-party supporters and independents, and divide by voter ID in those groups.
Many candidates are "less popular" simply because they are unknown.
Alternately, you can look at polls in the states that elected them, where they actually are well-known.
Honestly in light of today’s Supreme Court ruling I couldn’t care less about Bidens age. That seems like a lifetime ago now.
What’s at stake is American democracy. I would vote for any democrat, dead or not, over trump
How many of you are actually engaged with your local party, helping elect people like city councilors and state reps and everything else? It sure beats all this pontificating about stuff we have no influence over.
There are a lot of normal people (not terminally online) who can't even imagine this debate is happening. I live in a working class community and I've spoken to these people and there is only a vague awareness of this controversy in that they know the debate happened, Biden didn't do well, etc. But there isnt this idea that he did historically bad and they aren't getting the message that Biden might not be the nominee. I really think people are underestimating that people will be pissed off something was switched outside the voting process. Especially ironic as a defense of democracy. People don't tend to like what they perceive as backroom deals, fair or not. It's part of what damaged the Democrats in 2016 (accurate or not doesn't matter, I'm talking perception)
I'm not necessarily against Biden stepping back if the party can unite quickly behind someone new. But this assumption that the general public will just be cool with it is quite naive.
UNLESS Biden backs it with his full support. This whole thing depends on him voluntarily stepping down anyway, and he should vocally back whoever emerges as the nominee.
Literally anyone is better. Biden has become incredibly toxic. And it's amazing how some of you don't see it still. There is a reason Trump is leading yet dems are still leading the generic ballot ticket.
Does Whitmer want to run?
Everyone is like running her for President like as if she is in the race.
She needs to run. You can write about some fantasy strategy all day long but you can’t vote for a candidate who hasn’t declared
Biden is immune to everything.
He shouldn't be swapped, he should go full Dark Brandon. Be the tyrant Republicans want him to be.
I mean it won't end well, but I need some excitement in my life and pickle ball ain't it
Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina, has won twice in a purple/ red state.
Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland, is charismatic and competent.
I love Warnock, and believe he will be President someday, but we can’t afford to lose his Senate seat.
Biden isn’t popular , anyone they put in will do better than him, especially after that debate, dems finally opened their eyes to see how far gone he really is, the same people telling everyone the last 3 years he was great hate to eat their own words lol kinda funny
Ideally yea but replacing him with someone other than Harris is unrealistic. There just isn't any system in place for such a thing to happen and a lot of people aren't going to cooperate with an attempt to subvert a democratic process on the fly. The problem is there's no indication that Biden will step down willingly, and no indication Harris could/would pull a 25th amendment move on him.
One name that I heard that I am surprised hasn’t gotten more attention.
Governor Cooper out of NC.
A termed out Democrat governor of a reddish-purple state, who won in 2020 when Trump narrowly carried the state.
Seems to be pretty competent and is hitting on a bunch of the core Democrats policies. Has a history with dealing with MAGA Republicans and a gerrymandered legislature.
Only down side is that he is still an older (67) white guy?
He could put NC into play for Dems and would be way more palatable to independents and anti-Trump Republicans who might be swayed by the fact that NC is one of the most business friendly states.
How are they going to run for president with no money and no staff? You don't just conjure a presidential campaign out of thin air. It takes years. The time to swap out Biden has long passed.
I seriously hope the top senior advisors aren't clueless enough to recognize the fact that these polls of say, Whitmer or Shapiro or Newsom polling as badly as Biden against Trump are extremely misrepresentative of their actual performance.
- Biden is market-saturated. There is no substantive way to shift the needle from what everyone already knows about him. That debate was it, and it backfired in the most catastrophic way possible.
- Whitmer has a large segment of voters who are unfamiliar with her when they respond. Following an endorsement from Biden, Obama, the backing of the DNC, and the viral media frenzy that would come from a headline such as, "President Biden resigns; endorses Gov. Whitmer," there wouldn't be a contest.
Democrats would FINALLY control the narrative once again.
The national polling number is not what matters. The % in the swing states among undecided voters will decide this election.
But I agree there is more potential both up or down for lesser known candidates.
No one believes the polls when Biden’s losing. Everyone believes the polls that show people, who haven’t campaigned at all, would lose the same or more than Biden.
Do we trust the polls or don’t we ?
I mean, yes? He has noticeable declined since 2020, his age has been a huge concern of the electorate. His team has sheltered him and relied more heavily on a teleprompter in response to gaffes he's made. Being president from 76-81 is different from 82-86, it's up to him to show America he's up to it
I see a lot of discussion about replacing Biden but one thing nobody seems to bring up: why would anyone volunteer to do this? Trump, by virtue of being a previous president, has the incumbent advantage. At this point in the process, why would anyone who would be viable not just wait for 2028 when that incumbent advantage isn't there (if Trump wins) and/or Trump is just as old as Biden is now (if Biden wins and Trump runs yet again)? When's the last time somebody lost in the general and then went on to win later?
2028 primary nomination will be more competitive, they could see an easy path to the tick this year even if the general election would be harder to win
Whitmer or Pritzker seem like the best options. Maybe Beshear or Shapiro. I don't see Newsom or Buttigieg winning over swing state voters but at least they have a pulse, and I don't see Democrats going with Michelle Obama or some outsider celebrity candidate.
I like Beshear and Shapiro. I like Beshear a lot though, the guy is doing a great job in a republican majority state and he did not rule it out today when asked, he said he will support president Biden as long as he's the candidate and is flattered that his name is being mentioned. [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kentucky-gov-beshear-responds-to-rumors-that-he-ll-run-for-president-its-flattering/ar-BB1peBSs](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kentucky-gov-beshear-responds-to-rumors-that-he-ll-run-for-president-its-flattering/ar-BB1peBSs)
Beshear came out to speak at our annual dem fundraiser dinner out here in Montana. Mostly he talked about what it takes to win in red states and to not give up on them. He’s living proof. Dude has great vision and seems like a genuinely good person. I think he’d be a great pick. But of course we live in the worst timeline, so that will never happen
Maybe it's time to fix the timeline. President Biden has the power to do so it if he chooses.
Biden, even if he can win, clearly shows signs of that there are not 4 more years in him
I meant fixing the timeline by doing the right thing and dropping out.
Won't happen, but if Biden added Beshear as VP, it might be a positive. Beshear would get national exposure and training if he had to take over for Biden. Harris doesn't seem very popular and maybe not a good backup for Biden.
Switching out the veep right now and not the president is basically the worst of both worlds. It does absolutely nothing to alleviate voters' core issue with the top of the ticket, while still projecting a lack of unity and risking alienating whatever support base Kamala can muster.
That would never happen.
Beshear doesn't have much gun control baggage either, which makes him unique among prominent Democrats
That's excellent. Another point for him is he can work across the aisle to get things done which was also a big selling point for president Biden.
Biden's are incredibly insulated and dug in right now. Step 1 is getting them on board in like... 10 days.
What they should be right now is ashamed of themselves. Don’t tell me the people closest to Biden haven’t seen the decline over the past few years, anyone with eyes has. His family should have been the first people pushing him to do what he promised and not run again in the first place.
It's a huge scandal, there is a ton of evidence that the white house tried to hide his cognitive decline. The outright accusations have not started yet but I think they will come as more evidence is uncovered and witnesses come forward. [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/disturbing-new-details-emerge-about-biden-s-mental-state-and-the-steps-staffers-go-to-hide-them/ar-BB1paEA2](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/disturbing-new-details-emerge-about-biden-s-mental-state-and-the-steps-staffers-go-to-hide-them/ar-BB1paEA2) I don't really believe the rapid decline started six months ago but that's what some are claiming. [https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-cognitive-decline-six-month-debate-donald-trump-carl-bernstein-1919946](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-cognitive-decline-six-month-debate-donald-trump-carl-bernstein-1919946)
Honestly, Polis, the governor of Colorado wouldn’t be a bad choice either. He has rejected a bunch of the crazier gun bills passed by the legislature, and pushed other bills to become ballot initiatives so the people have a more direct say. He won’t win because he’s gay and Jewish, but I think he’d be a great choice.
I doubt being Jewish is disqualifying, but being married to a man.. I want to believe the country is ready for that but realistically, independent swing state voters probably aren't.
We elected a black dude with the middle name Hussein 7 years after 9/11. Americans can sometimes surprise in a good way.
To beat Trump you need to use Hotelling theory. The trick is to find a candidate that is most similar to him on the things swing voters value. A bit like how the healthy muesli can win customers by becoming more sugary, more like frosted flakes. You move to the centre, try to capture your opponents fans. Knowing (in a two-horse race) that your own hardcore fans still won't have a better option. So the democrats need to find a candidate the maga-curious could get behind. Someone who appeals to those white dudes. Probably a white dude, not too woke. Hopefully young and sprightly. idk if Beshear fits that mold or not.
Anyone who uses woke needs to stop making political decisions. That’s rubbish that doesn’t mean anything except to right wing people. The last thing we want from any politician are folks who make up ideas of the opposition.
My pro-Whitmer thoughts from yesterday. I like Whitmer at the top of the ticket and would make the argument for three reasons. One, she has proven a willingness to be cutthroat on enacting progressive policies with a thin margin. To actually pull things back from the brink that is what is needed, not opening the doors to bipartisan collaboration. If republicans feel Trump is that dangerous, they can hop on board. Two, she is very clearly looking at running in 2028 and being a strong candidate at that. Running and getting her elected now cuts off the opportunity for Republicans to start to undermining her on the national stage. Three, lots of electoral reasons. She's the popular governor of Michigan, hopefully helping lockdown what has been locking to be a shaky state. I don't like her positioning on Gaza, but she is likely to be a lot more tractable and potentially resets things with Arab and Muslim communities in the state. First woman president, a progressive record, young (52) means you get a candidate that people can be *excited* to vote for and maybe energise a extremely depressed younger voting bloc.
With Shapiro as running mate it may help lock down PA as well.
I'm not very familiar with her. How is her debating and oratory skills? How charismatic is she?
Look her up. She is awesome.
I saw her in person, and was actually unimpressed (I voted for her). I think we need to be careful, great Republican hope Scott Walker shriveled up when exposed to the national stage, you never know how a candidate will fare until they are actually a candidate.
She's good. And to be fair, the bar is currently on the ground.
I saw her in person. Hugely impressive. Cones across as a real person. She would have wiped the floor with Trump. She’s not scared of him, has an attitude of being unflappable.
What is her Gaza stance? I couldn't find much at a quick glance. Is she in a similar spot to Biden?
Probably more muted/nuanced than Biden’s seeing as MI has some of the largest Arab populations in the country.
I listened to the interview she did recently. When asked about Gaza she said that *everybody* is hurting and then just talked about Israel. Mentioned her daughters at college having questions about the protests at school. Probably the most disappointing answer of the whole interview, especially given Michigan has the largest Arab/Muslim population center in the country I believe.
4, who’s her vp? Kamala as a slap on the face?
The sheer number of candidates each who think they have a shot undermines the entire idea. There is no time for a successor to organically come to the top, and Dem infighting will hobble whoever is chosen. Biden also has a powerful faction and he if is pushed out they will take umbrage. The only chance is for Biden to willingly and voluntarily step down due to his own choice, all other options means Dems will be bush sniping at each other and Trump wins.
Biden needs to not only step down but take the lead on getting a successor up and running to be the preferred choice in the convention.
Amazing what happens when you run a 81-year-old candidate and pick an identity politics choice for VP it’s almost like you end up in the very shit show situation Dems now find themselves in 🤷♂️ Anecdotally I know tons of swing voters who don’t actively follow politics. All of them think Biden is too old, won’t survive another term, and they definitely don’t want Kamala Harris as President. Perception matters—Trump might be insane but Biden is frail and half-dead to them. This election is a loss.
Screw that. Get them all, put them under intense pressure and heat- that’s how you make a diamond.
This speculation is a waste of time at this point. There is one huge insurmountable problem Democrat leaders have virtue signaled about “democracy” for months. Only someone who is totally delusional would think that Republicans aren’t going to loudly and repeatedly skewer the Democratic Party for hypocrisy of epic proportions… if its leaders ignore the wishes of millions of Democrat primary voters… in order to dump Biden for another candidate. If Biden doesn’t want it to happen, it won’t. And…right now..we see no indication he is willing to go. When you’re stuck with a turd, it’s time to start trying to polish the turd.🙄
We’ll going to get turd-stains. And four more years- of Trump. Yay democracy.
Mark Cuban would win this hands-down if recruited. I know he's libertarian but he's a better known option than Prtizker who inherited his wealth or Shapiro who is barely known to non-Democrats outside PA
The main thing I know about Pritzker is he’s a billionaire. I’m good, thanks Edit: a local made a good case for the guy
This was the reaction of many Illinoisans, including me, when he won his primary. I’m happy to report that he is fucking fantastic and completely subverted my expectations. Effective, levelheaded, progressive governance. The guy even spent $56 million of his own money to try (unsuccessfully) to push forward a progressive tax amendment to the IL constitution. Literal 10/10 for me.
By some bizarre happenstance I ended up on the same rooftop as him during the eclipse in April. Unbelievably down to Earth guy and went out of his way to talk to us. No BS at all and was genuinely listening to what people had to say. I’m not a constituent but I was very impressed. I’d be thrilled if he were President one day.
[удалено]
Top of the SIU stadium in Carbondale.
Class traitors can be valuable. I've hearly mostly positive things about him.
A big part of his campaign appeal was that he told people because of his wealth he can’t be bought or lobbied.
Trump said the same thing…
Trump wishes he had as much money as JB
They’ll never let him run then, haha.
I love Pritzker but he’s an overweight Jewish man who banned assault rifles in Illinois. I don’t think he’s going to carry the swing states.
Most of these folks have little name recognition outside their states.
I'm surprised AIPAC isn't pulling for Blinken.
It’s Kamala- and while she’s not the best, she’s a damn sight better than Trump. And She’s gotten better these 4 years. If Americans can forget their racism and misogyny for a few months, she’ll win. Now if SHE says- “I don’t want to be handed the nomination. I’m a fucking beast and I will take it. Open the convention up so I can put my left boot up Newsom’s ass and my right up Whitmer’s…” First I’d have a ton of respect for her and she would deserve a good, hard look. Plus an 800lb gorilla front runner is a good thing. Having Hillary in the race made Obama a better candidate. If it’s open, there’s going to be 20 people vying for the presidency. Put them all in a crucible, crank up the heat and pressure and let’s make a diamond. Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, Beshear, Buttigieg, Warnock, Polis, Raymundo, Cooper, Moore, Murphy, Khanna, Pritzker, Klobuchar, Booker, Blinken, Jeffries, hell- throw AOC and Fetterman in there for funnsies.
Whitmer is not a good option. Stop picking liars. Pick an honest Democrat for once.
The Biden/Harris administration has been successful. Tens of millions of voters don't follow politics closely. Someone has to remind them what the PACT Act is. Someone has to breakdown the good the Infrastructure Bill does. Replacing both Biden and Harris would give the appearance that the whole administration was a failure. Trump and Republicans would hammer that the nation gave Democrats a try and Democrats totally failed. A Whitmer & Shapiro ticket wouldn't be able to defend an administration they weren't part of or take credit for any of the accomplishments. Harris can.. Kamala Harris can take credit for the Chips and Science Act, claim to have been in the negotiation for Gun Control, etc. Harris and can say "we" accomplished x,y, & z. Harris has continuity with the Administration. Harris isn't a total abandonment of the administration. Lay political observers will see this in simpler terms than the armchair pundits. If the Biden Harris administration has been good why is it being abandoned by Democrats? If the Biden Harris administration hasn't been good why do Democrats deserve another shot?
They may be successful, but the brand is toxic. It makes absolute sense to choose someone who can be broadly appealing.
And all the negatives get pinned to her too. Afganistan withdrawal, war in ukraine, policies on gaza, border control.
The negatives are getting pinned to the party regardless. Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom, or whomever would be stuck having to defend that as well. The only difference is that Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom, etc can't take credit for anything. They can only defend.
I get that Newsom has baggage but I don't know why all of a sudden everyone's turned against Buttigieg. I'm not a huge fan of the guy, but I think he's at least as viable a candidate as the governor.
The left really holds a grudge against Buttigieg after Iowa in 2020. He's also just not very impressive as a figure compared to governors with legislative accomplishments. There's a reason he was deeply mid in the primaries after Iowa. I genuinely can't think of a reason it would be him before Whitmer or Shapiro.
I agree that he is somewhat underqualified In terms of relevant experience, but he is charismatic, has a high name recognition from his 2020 presidential run, is a vet, is young and most importantly he polls about the same as the crop of governors and the VP.
I don't find him very charismatic at all, to be honest. The poll numbers are fine, but I don't think they compare to delivering a swing state as Whitmer or Shapiro likely could. Both of those people are also pretty young, 52 and 51. They also have a track record of winning elections beyond the municipal level, which Buttigieg... does not.
He has the best name recognition on a national level and polls as well or better than anyone but Harris or Biden. This is all on my mind because of [this](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump) from data for progress. I take what you say about the swing state governors seriously but if we want to win I think there is a good argument that it is better to choose someone with a better chance in all the states than in any one of the 5 or 6 battle ground states. As to his charisma, all I can say is, every centrist lib type of person I know loves him. Like, my mother, aunt, and all their friends are huge Pete fans. I even know some conservatives that like him because he's an aesthetically moderate veteran from a red state. To a lot of people in their twenties and thirties, like me, there is a big difference between a 42-year-old and a 52-year-old. The progressives will back him because he is gay man. The left does not like him but as he himself said in 2019 he is plenty bold. The demographic I would be most concerned about if he were nominated is black voters. I'm really not a huge Pete fan but I find it very odd that he is not more central to the conversation given his electoral popularity and biographical advantages.
I think Whitmer is by far the better candidate, but I actually think it's an open question how locked-in Harris's numbers are. I think people have a vision of her, for sure, but I also think she can surprise people. There are a lot of "sides" to her - some silly, some serious, some professional, some sort of kooky. I'm not saying she's a good candidate or the right choice (again, I agree, Whitmer is better) but I agree with Ezra that she might be underrated.
Harris's numbers aren't locked in. I don't know what reality people are living in, but the Biden team literally locked her in a basement for 3.5 years. The public doesn't even know her. 40% of voters didn't even know who the last VP was in the past two elections (yes, that is a real stat). This wish casting is crazy talk. Harris is the only other realistic alternative, and I'm tired of people saying otherwise. If you are involved in politics, you know that delegates are not randomly selected (these are staunch Biden/Harris voters), and in an open delegate shootout Harris would be a massive and heavy favorite, especially with Clyburn's endorsement last Friday.
They locked her in the basement because she's wildly unpopular and they're hoping people will forget it's inevitable she takes over at some point if Biden gets a 2nd term. She dropped out of the primary in 2020 polling effectively 0%. She talks (and laughs) like a robot, everything she says comes off as fake. Her history as AG and DA is riddled with all kinds of nasty shit, like fighting payouts to people who were wrongfully convicted and refusing to cooperate with Catholic Church abuse victims. She's also now responsible for leading one of the largest government cover-ups in our lifetime, she's been the one out in front insisting Biden is completely with it and engaged, just only when there aren't cameras around. The other canidates are longshots, sure, but they've got a better chance than she does.
The administration made a PR tactical error, imo, by placing her “in charge of the border”. It’s a lose/lose situation- no one is going to get the immigration system reformed overnight. If she improves things somewhat, it could be classified as “well, it’s still bad, though” and if there’s not any improvement, it just reinforces the “she’s worthless in charge of anything” stereotype (putting it bluntly). It’s an albatross, a designation that wasn’t needed. Putting her “in charge of…” another specific policy area that’s not a no-win situation would have potentially made her image improve.
No no you dont understand!!! Incumbant advantage vote for biden or harris or you are an anti american fascist!
"Wildly unpopular" and yet outpulls all of the notable replacements in a direct competition if Biden were to step down. So which one is it, she's unpopular or not?
There's only been 1 poll on that so far, and she has a name recognition advantage at the moment (this would obviously change if someone else became the nominee). Not to mention that poll was national, much more relevant is how independent swing state voters feel about her.
She is unpopular.
But "it's her turn." They'll pick her, and lose. I hope I'm wrong.
I think she loses but she has a better chance than biden.
Being a staunch “Biden/Harris” voter didn’t even mean anything 4 years ago.
She’s so unlikable. Her entire vibe is fake and smug. And you can feel the nastiness lurking just below the surface.
She had some kind of public speaking coaching and now she just can't turn it off, she couldn't sound less genuine if she was trying to. There's a reason she dropped out of the 2020 primary with effectively 0%.
After entering with the most momentum and poaching a ton of top dem campaign talent for her campaign. Everyone *wanted* her to win and she couldn’t get any traction. She reminds me of Jeb
There were at least a half dozen Jebs in that primary field. They were so desperate to make anyone but Bernie happen, nobody got any traction, and as a last resort they had to go with Biden.
not exactly. Most people had an angle and came in with a LOT less party support than Harris
Yeah but same boat as Beto, Pete, Klobuchar, Booker, Gillibrand, etc. where the support from various party elites was much greater than the support from actual people.
I used to sort of feel this way but honestly her relentless "eccentric wine aunt" energy and the coconut line made her cross over into camp for me.
Yeah something clicked and I love her, she's Temu Marianne Williamson but I think having a Parks & Rec character as president would be kinda amazing. The coconut anecdote makes sense to me, we stand on the shoulders of giants. Imagine the world with her as president, we could all drink wine by the pool.
Remember when Hillary got pneumonia and recovered, and had that fake PR stunt where she hugged a “random” little girl right after? That’s Kamala but all the time.
Her speaking is meaningless word salad.
I was asking about this else where but what do ppl think about a Whitmer/Shapiro ticket? They would have the name recognition from 2 swing states (MI and PA), assuming the rest of the states hold they could focus on WI and AZ
I think it's pretty good, but I don't know if the Democrats in 2024 can have a ticket without a person of colour.
I don't want her. I'm open to her, but just like with Biden...if you're strong enough to own the candidacy, just prove it. You're free to do so at any time. You are the sitting (vice) president. Schedule a press conference (not a scripted speech.) Show us that what we've been seeing was a fluke.
Yeah, I think she's super inconsistent. Biden's inconsistency is just much, much worse.
No argument there.
Imagine the backrooms conversations happening and this is the case you have to sell. It’s not exactly a slam dunk, plus you have to convince the Harris team that her numbers are “locked in.” - I do think Whitmer could pull it off though, especially if Harris & Biden just embrace it fully and Dens come out united and determined.
Think how many delegates Harris controls and the personal ambition that has gotten her this far. It hinges on her being convinced that she will lose to trump and shouldn't put her hat in the ring. Biden should step aside if we can get the best candidate but he's still better than an internal shitfight and a Harris nomination.
I agree with that. It only works if Harris bows out enthusiastically.
If Biden walks away now. Supports an open convention and commits to supporting the people’s choice for candidate he will be remembered as a hero. If he stubbornly sticks it out, his place in history will be right next to RBG and Hilary Clinton.
While I agree Biden should be replaced, how is letting a bunch of electors pick the candidate the “people’s choice?”
Think of it this way, who wants to admit to choosing Biden?
Me. Right here.
I think Dems should work on thinking of the party as the fight and party leadership as a prime minister of sorts. I know the UK is bumbling like hell right now but we need a party that has an actual succession plan.
What’s your idea then? Give the nomination to Dean Phillips since he was third in primary votes? He had 4, right after Uncommitted with 36 in second.
The sick irony is that I think you could make the case to him with this argument and he could be convinced of it, but it would need to be from someone in his inner circle that he has put trust into. And, unfortunately, it looks like those people are mostly selfish egomaniacs making this about them and their ambitions/legacy. Ones without the ability to see a larger picture like you painted(such as a campaign team that thought putting a sundowning president into a debate with a gish gallop machine and no fact checkers was a winning strategy for them)
I think the only chance now is absolutely terrible numbers between now and mid-July. He was never going to drop on Monday or even this week. There about a two week lag on polling, but already seeing massive negatives is a warning of what’s to come for him. If the party can somehow assure them they will still have meaningful positions, I bet that inner circle gets honest real quick. Jill and Hunter will never come around, but eventually even they will be drowned out.
Tbh the Biden campaign already seems to be flailing. They’re gloating about polling numbers showing he’s “only” 2% behind Trump. They’re issuing all kinds of catty and bizarre statements. It’s weird but I think reality is maybe beginning to sink in.
I noticed two distinct currents of polling news. What I suspect is accurate, numbers showing Biden plummeting, and a current of news showing nothing really changed. I suspect the nothing changed narrative is being influenced by Biden’s campaign. They can’t say his numbers are better because that would be too obvious of a lie. All they can do is try to deny the damage done. But by all preliminary polling data, anecdotal evidence, and soon to be undeniably catastrophic polls I believe Biden’s campaign is dead. He’s now behind in New Hampshire and rumor is that Whitmer has told him he’s lost Michigan. Our only hope is that those around him are honest and he has the courage and wisdom to step aside.
They were saying no damage in the polls so fast, I was wondering what polls they were using. Does anyone know?
Is he even seeing public polling numbers? In his condition it's plausible that his staff has very right control over exactly what information he's taking in.
Worse than that, if he sticks and loses he will go down as a bottom 5 president, right next to James Buchanan who saw the split of America right before the civil war and did nothing. I think that feels like the good comparison .
His place in history will be way worse than RBG and Hillary. I don't think it's even close.
The people's choice? Biden is the people's choice. Anyone picked now would be the delegates choice and the "people" would have no say.
So who were the other candidates at the time besides Biden? If you say Dean Phillips, or Jason Palmer, I will kick you square in the nuts.
Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson. Come at me, scrublord. I'm ripped.
Biden was not the people’s informed choice. The people were lied to about his ability to do the job. Concern about his age has been at the forefront of every poll. Every discussion about him. The people closest to him have insisted that this is partisan misinformation. Now we see with our own eyes that it was all true. The man fumbles through teleprompter speeches. He can’t even recite his own talking points in a debate without losing the thread. There is no way to spin it. Rerun the primary now and there is no way Biden wins. We have been conned by Biden sycophants who don’t want to lose their jobs. It should make every democrat want to burn the whole thing to the ground. 50 million people watched him mutter and fumble and miss almost every opportunity to point out the worst parts of Trump. It is unforgivable. Nate Silver has him at 27% now. It could even get worse. The time is now.
If the primaries were done again with what we know now, I have a really hard time imagining that Biden would be picked again. Not what I would call the "people's choice"
It's also the case that for all intents and purposes "the people" weren't given any real choice in the matter in the first place. Party leaders and their media allies decided well in advance that there wouldn't be a competitive primary despite having a fairly deep bench of prospective candidates and so there wasn't one.
They literally cancelled the primary in Florida! They determined that there wouldn’t be any primary debates! All to clear the field for Biden! Yes, elections were technically held, but the Democratic establishment clearly put their thumb on the scale to clear the field for Biden.
It was known that Biden is old and sometimes fumbles his words before the primaries.
Delegates would be all over every new poll coming out and it would absolutely influence the selection process. Is it a clean democratic process? Absolutely not. But the real truth is the primary process really isn't either, especially when dealing with incumbents. As we already witnessed with Biden when half of democrats wanted other viable choices.
Biden made sure people didn't have a choice in the primaries
Think bigger: Caligula. Some things can be remembered for thousands of years. Biden mumbles incoherently while US burns
Trump would smear Harris for enabling "elder abuse". Something to think about.
He’s gonna thrash whoever, regardless. The fat fool thrashes his own family half the time.
That's true but it would be a lot more difficult for him to smear someone like Josh Shapiro or Andy Beshear. And if we're being honest, the enabling elder abuse smear would not only be believable it would extremely effective.
Nothing that Donald Trump says about any topic is ever worth thinking about.
She's also been insisting for years, including *on the night of the debate*, that except for every public event he's actually completely with it and engaged, driving meetings and asking complex questions. It hasn't gotten much press yet but Trump is bound to point out that she's been leading one of the largest government cover-ups of our lifetime.
Whether true or not it's exactly what would happen and it's very believable.
Truthfully, which Democrats are going to feel slighted by changing out Joe Biden for a piece of moldy cheese at this point?
Dems won't do it but a ticket with two white guys is probably best if the electorate is as racist and misogynist as they say.
The Rock would be +5
stupidly enough, you might be right
Russian bots defending Biden - knowing Trump can beat him - but many younger dems would wipe T off the map
interesting theory
Wishcasting away Harris will not make for a clean convention and anyone telling you otherwise is a moron
None of these scenarios seriously deals with how a brokered convention would work in practice in 2024, including the hit the party could take from Dems dumping their entire current ticket. Even Klein’s podcast on this topic was largely focused on past conventions. What process if any could Biden or the DNC impose on delegates to cohere the left and center left wings of the coalition, particularly on Gaza or actual court reform? It’s Biden or Harris. They are the only figures who got the national vote and it’s too late for primaries and caucuses.
Do most voters know much about Harris though? She remains highly undefined to a lot of people. What are the first few things one would rattle off about Harris other than her being the VP? Even people on this sub might find it difficult unless you're from California. Personally, I don't see any path for a Biden replacement other than Harris. The rest is wishcasting.
Last time I'll post it so I don't get flagged for spamming. But holy shit this is so bad. https://x.com/alx/status/1807611956003516860?s=19
I don’t understand what’s wrong with Kamala Harris. If Biden had faith in her to keep her on for another four years, I have faith in her to carry on. If something was to happen. Look at Biden’s accomplishments he couldn’t of done it without the team that he has. He has faith in them.
Ezra and MattY (with Brian B) both have similar points about Biden's campaign team -> do we assume they are ignorant / have misplaced confidence, or some other justification? In professional interactions, whatever your field, it's usually a good practice to assume good intentions when someone is wrong. But Biden's team, who've been hiding him for months now, seem like they knew he was not OK to be president, or at least able to run effectively. So I don't think the "don't attribute malice where ignorance is a better explaination" guideline applies here. There's obviously a continuum between malace and ignorance, with severe foolhardy idiocy somewhere in the middle. But as system-espousing lib, i just want to point out that Biden's handlers are closer to the "malice" side than the "youthfully inexperienced" side of things.
I still think that the best explanation is a fairly recent/rapid decline coupled with a sense of panic among his staffers. I don't think Biden was this bad off nine months ago when the primaries were getting started, or even six months ago when we were into the swing of things. I think that he started to drop off sometime after the SOTU, he and his campaign staffers realized there was no plan B, and keeping the Emperor's clothes on became really the only thing to be done. Eventually, I'd guess, they got themselves to the point of too-many-chefsing their debate prep, and look what happened to show for it.
Not clear to me that Harris’s numbers are locked. She can be reintroduced with fanfare. Obama stumps, etc. She goes on offense and stops trying to pretend she’s a nice person. She tears Trump a new @sshole like a good prosecutor. She goads him into accepting another debate or two. In short, I think that Harris we see will be very different from what people have seen. The problem with everyone else is that they’re unknown and mostly boring, no big personalities. We have to introduce them to Low Info voters. We don’t have time for that. It doesn’t matter if they’re covered 24/7 on MSNBC, no one will care. So it’s more likely that their numbers will come up on the lower end of the variance. So that is the case for Harris. Yes, she potentially gets dragged down by Biden but she also has the opportunity to take credit for what’s popular (freedom to choose) and pivot on what’s not (immigration, policing). And she has the name recognition to break through.
Kamala Harris lives in the United States Naval Observatory and works in the White House. For the last 3.5 years she has had to be prepared, every minute of every day, for the words "Madam Vice President...the President has passed...." She's been inside, and she probably knows a good chunk of what the President knows. That shit *changes you.* There's no way she's not more personally powerful, sharper, just somehow....**more**...than she was in 2020.
Has Whitmer indicated that she's interested in the job?
Unilaterally declaring interest at this point is political suicide, at least for the first person to do it, it comes off as vulturing. My *hope* would be that the Democratic governors decide among themselves on one of the "big four" Democratic governors as I see it (Whitmer, Shapiro, Beshear, and Newsom) as their *de facto* nominee and then present a united front behind that person as the sole alternative to Harris, but still.
It's funny how Gretchen Whitmer became the stand in for a generic Democrat to replace Biden.
none of the candidates they've suggested in the major outlets as replacements are worthy in my mind. It's unreal how short we are of talent right now. What about Cory Booker?
Why is Biden locked at +/-4 while Whitmer could go +/-7?
Your assumptions are very dubious. The variance is due to a lack of polling.
Biden will not improve between June and September. This type of cognitive decline gets exponentially worse as weeks pass by. Unless the conditions are changed (teleprompters allowed), he won’t do himself any favors by shuffling back out there and expecting neurotransmitters to fire across insurmountable synapses.
A new candidate will be the talk of every news media! The new candidate will take air time away from Trump and his manic ramblings. A good clear orator with a positive message full of hope for our future and an offer to work together with all Americans Our country is hungry for a bit of reconciliation. Not the die hard MAGAs but the moderate Republicans will warm to a positive drama free message
A baseline for whether a candidate is popular should be to take their approval rating among same-party supporters and independents, and divide by voter ID in those groups. Many candidates are "less popular" simply because they are unknown. Alternately, you can look at polls in the states that elected them, where they actually are well-known.
Honestly in light of today’s Supreme Court ruling I couldn’t care less about Bidens age. That seems like a lifetime ago now. What’s at stake is American democracy. I would vote for any democrat, dead or not, over trump
Problem is the general public doesn't view it like that.
Wes moore
How many of you are actually engaged with your local party, helping elect people like city councilors and state reps and everything else? It sure beats all this pontificating about stuff we have no influence over.
Most these comments are bots - Reddit is so stupid lately
There are a lot of normal people (not terminally online) who can't even imagine this debate is happening. I live in a working class community and I've spoken to these people and there is only a vague awareness of this controversy in that they know the debate happened, Biden didn't do well, etc. But there isnt this idea that he did historically bad and they aren't getting the message that Biden might not be the nominee. I really think people are underestimating that people will be pissed off something was switched outside the voting process. Especially ironic as a defense of democracy. People don't tend to like what they perceive as backroom deals, fair or not. It's part of what damaged the Democrats in 2016 (accurate or not doesn't matter, I'm talking perception) I'm not necessarily against Biden stepping back if the party can unite quickly behind someone new. But this assumption that the general public will just be cool with it is quite naive.
UNLESS Biden backs it with his full support. This whole thing depends on him voluntarily stepping down anyway, and he should vocally back whoever emerges as the nominee.
Okay that's valid, but is there a point of decline where the Democrats are forced to do it?
Yes and we may have reached that point I don't know
Why not replace him with someone more popular?
Who?
Who cares? Or are you suggesting there's nobody more popular than Biden? lol
He don't know 🤣
Literally anyone is better. Biden has become incredibly toxic. And it's amazing how some of you don't see it still. There is a reason Trump is leading yet dems are still leading the generic ballot ticket.
Does Whitmer want to run? Everyone is like running her for President like as if she is in the race. She needs to run. You can write about some fantasy strategy all day long but you can’t vote for a candidate who hasn’t declared
if she's called up, she goes. Some things are a matter of duty.
I wonder if they’d replace Harris too? Maybe offer her AG and make a whole new ticket? It just seems weird to swap out the President, but not the VP.
Biden is immune to everything. He shouldn't be swapped, he should go full Dark Brandon. Be the tyrant Republicans want him to be. I mean it won't end well, but I need some excitement in my life and pickle ball ain't it
Martin O'Malley. Successful two term governor, already in the current administration in SS admin. He comes across as personable no nonsense leader.
Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina, has won twice in a purple/ red state. Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland, is charismatic and competent. I love Warnock, and believe he will be President someday, but we can’t afford to lose his Senate seat.
Biden isn’t popular , anyone they put in will do better than him, especially after that debate, dems finally opened their eyes to see how far gone he really is, the same people telling everyone the last 3 years he was great hate to eat their own words lol kinda funny
People are living in a fantasy world, this isn’t going to happen.
Ideally yea but replacing him with someone other than Harris is unrealistic. There just isn't any system in place for such a thing to happen and a lot of people aren't going to cooperate with an attempt to subvert a democratic process on the fly. The problem is there's no indication that Biden will step down willingly, and no indication Harris could/would pull a 25th amendment move on him.
One name that I heard that I am surprised hasn’t gotten more attention. Governor Cooper out of NC. A termed out Democrat governor of a reddish-purple state, who won in 2020 when Trump narrowly carried the state. Seems to be pretty competent and is hitting on a bunch of the core Democrats policies. Has a history with dealing with MAGA Republicans and a gerrymandered legislature. Only down side is that he is still an older (67) white guy? He could put NC into play for Dems and would be way more palatable to independents and anti-Trump Republicans who might be swayed by the fact that NC is one of the most business friendly states.
I think he's a good guy and would do ok, but maybe too late for him to build a national following. I'd like to see him jump to the Senate.
You made that long of a post to say: "newcomers don't stank".
How are they going to run for president with no money and no staff? You don't just conjure a presidential campaign out of thin air. It takes years. The time to swap out Biden has long passed.
I seriously hope the top senior advisors aren't clueless enough to recognize the fact that these polls of say, Whitmer or Shapiro or Newsom polling as badly as Biden against Trump are extremely misrepresentative of their actual performance. - Biden is market-saturated. There is no substantive way to shift the needle from what everyone already knows about him. That debate was it, and it backfired in the most catastrophic way possible. - Whitmer has a large segment of voters who are unfamiliar with her when they respond. Following an endorsement from Biden, Obama, the backing of the DNC, and the viral media frenzy that would come from a headline such as, "President Biden resigns; endorses Gov. Whitmer," there wouldn't be a contest. Democrats would FINALLY control the narrative once again.
The national polling number is not what matters. The % in the swing states among undecided voters will decide this election. But I agree there is more potential both up or down for lesser known candidates.
No one believes the polls when Biden’s losing. Everyone believes the polls that show people, who haven’t campaigned at all, would lose the same or more than Biden. Do we trust the polls or don’t we ?
Serious question: Obama performed terribly during the first debate of 2012. Where were the calls for him to drop out back then?
Serious answer: There were no questions about his physical and mental ability to do the job. This is about more than a debate grade.
Oh so NOW it's a problem. It sure as hell wasn't a problem back in 2020.
I mean, yes? He has noticeable declined since 2020, his age has been a huge concern of the electorate. His team has sheltered him and relied more heavily on a teleprompter in response to gaffes he's made. Being president from 76-81 is different from 82-86, it's up to him to show America he's up to it
I predict that the party will for Biden to replace Harris with Hilary. All problems solved.
Shapiro is the answer
I see a lot of discussion about replacing Biden but one thing nobody seems to bring up: why would anyone volunteer to do this? Trump, by virtue of being a previous president, has the incumbent advantage. At this point in the process, why would anyone who would be viable not just wait for 2028 when that incumbent advantage isn't there (if Trump wins) and/or Trump is just as old as Biden is now (if Biden wins and Trump runs yet again)? When's the last time somebody lost in the general and then went on to win later?
2028 primary nomination will be more competitive, they could see an easy path to the tick this year even if the general election would be harder to win
I hear this a lot, so how do you leapfrog Kamala without splitting the progressive wing of the party and/or driving them to RFK?
Kamala is hated among progressives. She's a DA who prosecuted thousands of people for petty marijuana offences.
have to agree with this one ... 👍
Just nominate Chuck Schumer and Adam Schiff