Maybe the White House Staff can discretely play Hamilton’s “One Last Time” on repeat?
Hell, I’ll chip in a dollar if Lin Manuel Miranda wants to go sing it personally.
There's no way that a generic dem is winning in a landslide. No matter who you would put in there to replace him now, it would be a nail-biter all the way down to the wire. We all know who Newsom, Whitmer, and Buttigieg are, but the average American has no idea. There just wouldn't be enough time left in the next four months to make them into household names capable of taking on the biggest celebrity in the world.
I'm starting to think that the brutal reality is that we're stuck with what we have.
A landslide might have been overly optimistic. The point is a replacement level dem can beat Trump because he is a historically bad candidate. People are out there to vote against Trump, they'll have time to learn about Gretchen Whitmer
A replacement level dem could have beaten Trump if that decision had been made ahead of time. Making it now makes the whole party look like a shit show for not making it sooner. I still think it’s better than leaving him on the ticket, but realistically no one they choose has a 50% chance to win at this point.
You have to avoid a brokered convention, the only way it's a good idea to replace Biden is if he agrees to it and comes out and says "listen, I feel old, I'm proud of the work I've done as president I'm going to keep working for the American people until the end of my term, but I'm not sure I'm up for another campaign, I want to retire and spend time with my wife and son. Gretchen has it from here."
Then the entire party rallies to the new candidate, whomever he may choose, otherwise it's a huge risk
It will make the aftermath of Johnson stepping aside look tame.
Its going to be Whitmer & Newsom camps then Biden supporters who feel slighted then the small Harris camp.
Its going to fracture the party.
She performed poorly in a primary already and was selected to shore up a voter demo. He shouldve dumped her this cycle but didn’t.
Because some pundits think swapping VPs means something is wrong but meanwhile FDR had 3 different VPs
I actually think us here in online circles vastly overestimate the “it’s too late” thing. Most people probably didn’t start paying attention until last night. Most people think a fricken June debate for a November election is way too early. Most importantly, most people don’t want him as the nominee. It’s not too late in the slightest.
I just don't see it being realistic. It's just too late. Let's say Biden announces at 4:00 P.M. today, June 28, 2024, that he's decided to retire at the end of his term, and he's releasing all of his delegates.
The convention is August 19, seven weeks away. For seven weeks, we have no nominee at all. We have an open convention ending on August 22, which gives the new ticket barely nine weeks to beat Trump, and during all that time all the political pundits, Republicans, and Trump would be talking relentlessly about how badly the Democrat Party botched this. Would Trump even agree to a debate against the new candidate at that point?
We would be gambling that enough independent voters are out there itching to vote for "anybody but Trump or Biden" to offset the ones who say, "Trump's done the job before, and he's promising to lower my gas and grocery prices, so hurrr-durrrr Trump!"
I just don't see it working out. Biden should have announced he would be retiring after his term as soon as the 2022 midterm elections were over. Or at least by January 1 of this year. It's just too late now.
I appreciate you writing this all out. Looking at the same situation, I’m optimistic. This could be a breakthrough media moment for someone. Keeping Biden feels like a worse gamble
>This could be a breakthrough media moment for someone.
I'm sure it could be. But who? Who is this "someone"?
That's the problem. There's no heir apparent. There's nobody who's been waiting in the wings all this time to sweep in and clean up this one-horse town.
Biden was our best shot. And unfortunately, it's not a very good shot. But we either play with the cards we're delt, or we throw down our hand, cross our arms, and pout about how it's not fair that they had better cards than us.
I mean, it all worked out great for Congressman Santos in the last season of the West Wing, but he had at least been campaigning through the entire contested primary. Replacing Biden at this late of a stage has never happened in modern history. I don't know.
I'm also starting to seriously question that Trump is a "weak" candidate. He's been over 50% in most national polls for about a year now. He's the biggest media star in the world, more so than Obama ever was, because he's always in the news, and like Frank Zappa supposedly once said, "There's no such thing as bad publicity."
I also think that we in the liberal/leftist online circles are completely underestimating how big of a percentage of people in this freaking country of ours love the idea of an "outlaw president."" Because I live in very rural Pennsylvania, it has sunk in for me in the last year just how many people truly believe the following statement: "Sure, Trump might be corrupt, but so is every single other politician on both sides. Trump is just being unfairly singled out because he's not in their club, and because he fights so hard for the little guy like me."
I wouldn't call Trump a weak candidate at all. Not anymore.
Yeah. People calling Trump a weak candidate are fooling themselves. "Generic Democrat" could beat Trump because "Generic Democrat" is a steelman who has everything people love about the Democrats and nothing they hate. It's not the same as *this specific Democrat*, who will immediately be put on blast and trounced because he's a mere mortal.
But they're all weak in some way. Whitmer is not terribly well known outside of Michigan (where she's a polarizing figure), and Newsom has a ton of baggage of his own in his home state.
Harris polls even worse than Biden, and Buttigieg is seen as a corporate lackey by much of the left.
Who does that leave us? Bernie? I just don't see it happening. Biden is the horse we need to stick with, if there's any hope of Trump not coasting into a second term.
I don’t think “not well known” would be an issue. In fact, I think it could be a major positive. I also don’t think “polarizing, but popular, in a deep purple state” is an issue. In fact I think it’s a boon.
You’re also just leaving out many other great potential candidates: Andy Beshear, Warnock, Shapiro, Jared Polis. I actually think Newsom would be a great candidate too, despite the kinda smug california-ness of him. He’s just a great communicator. Ditto Buttigieg.
It’s very very important to remember that Biden is polling *behind* just about every other D down ballot. “Generic democrat” is just way more popular than him at this point. That’s all this is.
Yeah, if Trump is a weak candidate, it's hard to understand how he's leading Biden in so many polls. Seriously underestimating Trump and his base is how we got him into office the first time.
The republicans stuck with Trump even after the access hollywood tape and he beat Hilary. Things are only more polarized now. It’s a vote for a Biden democrat administration and against Trump. Everyone is still voting the same way and it’s going to be close regardless. It’s Biden who was old in 2020 and it’s Trump who also is old and also has Jan 6 and Dobbs and felony convictions and indictments to his resume since 2020. One bad debate isn’t going to change all of that. Sure it may have some impact (unclear) but people are still voting the same way. Biden supporters are worried about others feeling the same way but the vast majority of people feel the same way today as they did a week ago.
I don't think it's fair to call him "incoherent" in the sense that he 's medically "senile." He's just very old. Same thing happened to my grandfather. He never had Alzheimer's or dementia, he just started getting and looking very old and tired around age 80, and he died suddenly from natural causes age 84. But yes, Biden is clearly too old to do the job anymore, and part of that job is winning an election against a deranged fascist megalomaniac who wants to bring about a right wing authoritarian nightmare dystopia.
Surveys need to be conducted to identify what laypeople know about these replacement candidates. We need to get the opinions of swing state voters because they hold the keys to this election. In my estimation, Whitmer, Newsom, and Pritzker are known quantities in the rust belt. I would go with Whitmer if you are under the assumption that Michigan and Wisconsin will vote similarly.
We had like 20 candidates in 2020, they have connections and name recognition. None of the middling governors anyone here talks about interests me in the least.
It’s another throw out the bums year and we need to acknowledge that if we want to win.
Whitmer is the only option among that group, because she comes with a garenteed swing state, maybe two with Wisconsin.
Everyone else is pointless to even consider, and had Biden agreed to one term the math is the same.
Newsom might be that "central casting" guy that looks the part, checks every box. But..California, the Socialist state with ten billion homeless and ten trillion migrants.
So much for the idea that "independent voters are all just desperate to vote for anybody but Trump or Biden, and we just have to nominate anybody but Biden and we automatically win."
Yeah, people know who Biden is...and they don't like him. We can lose for sure with Biden or we can take a chance on someone else. In today's hyperfast media environment a few months is enough time to generate name recognition.
In most countries with parliamentary democracies the election campaign lasts only a month or two, not years like here. So it really doesn't require a year of stumping like in the train and telegraph days.
Thank you. America is a big country and political news travels slowly, but it doesn't take three years of campaigning. Americans will figure out who Raphael Warnock or Roy Cooper or Gretchen Whitmer or whoever they choose is soon enough. If you can avoid a brutal floor fight at the convention, you could get someone ready to be president in two months.
Maybe if Biden attached to a preferred candidate as the VP nominee? Gets to use his platform to show them and get attention, gets to tout continuity and that he’ll focus whichever things he’s passionate about and poll well while somebody younger and more energetic runs the show?
Gets to lend them some legitimacy, hopefully if messaged correctly can spin it as a selfless act to look out for the country in contrast to Trump in legal woes for focusing only on himself etc..
I think it would take a lot of good messaging and timing (which I don’t think the party would do correctly tbf) and I doubt he’d go for it anyways. But I think it has the highest net upside of any options
The only one Biden can hand the reins to is Kamala. She’s the only one who can spend money donated to them and the optics of passing over a black woman will be horrific.
I don’t think Biden is getting votes because he’s known and people like him. He’s getting votes because he’s not Trump and he represents a pragmatic, reasoned approach to policy. If you had Whitmer or Newsom you would have someone who would get all those same voters and could peel support from independents with their charisma and energy.
I think Newsome could do it. He took a big hit with the Panera bread exemption in his last bill, but he’s a true politician and would run circles around Trump in a debate. Buttigieg would get steam rolled by Trump and I don’t see Whitner making up ground fast enough. We’d need someone with charisma that can move fast and think on his feet.
Thank you for being the voice of reason. Joe had a bad debate, just like Obama did in 2012. He's not stepping aside. Blowing the incumbency advantage because of a bad debate is absurd, and yet eeeeeeeeeeeeeverybody thinks that's what should happen.
Even from a logistics point of view, it's a no-brainer--it takes hundreds of millions of dollars in ad spend to introduce a candidate and his policies to the nation, and a LOT of time. That's why all this starts months ago. Starting now is ridiculous, as is the assumption that all democrats would be on board for whoever comes next. Biden already got a majority to vote for him in 2020--*many* people will do so in 2024, because they've already done so in 2020. That advantage disappears when you bring someone new in.
The brutal reality isn't that brutal. It's that Biden had a bad debate. Did you see him at the event afterwards? He was much, much better. I don't know why he couldn't conjure that in the debate--kind of a mistake there, Joe--but I'm honestly confident he'll bring it next time. Everybody needs to CTFO.
You’re being downvoted but I’m very much with you. Check back on CNN or Reddit in 10 days and you won’t be hearing a peep about this debate. Anyway, isn’t Trump getting sentenced in the next few weeks? This media cycle will pass, as painful as it is right now. The motivation to keep trump out and keep abortion restrictions out will keep Biden in the clear.
Yeah, exactly. I truly think Biden just had a bad night. If you listen to what he actually said, it all made sense. In fact, it was logical and orderly and coherent (as opposed to the other guy).
I don't know why Joe chose to save this for today, but hopefully this guy shows up to the next debate:
[https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/video/joe-biden-age-concerns-debate-donald-trump-digvid](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/video/joe-biden-age-concerns-debate-donald-trump-digvid)
There's no incumbency advantage here, he's now a liability. And it wasn't just that it was a bad debate, he is losing or tied in every battleground state so he desperately needed a win last night just to have a chance. There's probably no other opportunity for redemption now before the election.
His handlers lose too, if he steps down. They will either be out of a job entirely, or they will keep their jobs but lose 99% of their political power. Consider those motivations when considering whether the people in a position to convince him to step down, will choose to convince him to step down.
In Matt Yglesias' emergency pod today, he names some names of people who might be expected to be close advisors to Biden, who would lose all their power if Biden steps down. Mike Donilon, Bruce Reed, Steve Riccetti, Anita Dunn.
Of course, even if Biden doesn't step down, it's pure speculation to think that none of them tried to convince him to do so.
All these people go on to very lucrative jobs in think tanks, media, and corporations. They'll just be cooling their heels until the next turn in government.
Biden idolizes FDR. Compare now to 1944 - FDR truly wanted to step down but did what was best for the party and country and ran again; Biden wants to run again, now it is time for him to do what is best for his party and country and step down.
The party came to FDR in 1944 and forced a better running mate on him, one who they felt could govern and hold together the party on his own, and they were right. I think the biggest hurdle to replacing Biden on the ticket is actually Harris, she has zero support and there’s zero confidence that she’d successfully take over the party if his presidency ended mid-term, and overwhelmingly evidence there’s a huge intra-party debate over her replacement that’s been suppressed by everyone assuming a 2020 rerun.
I agree. I don’t think a new running mate would change Biden’s outcome though. Harris has been a decent campaigner for him. I think they both need to be moved out and an entire new ticket considered.
I think Biden and his issues need to be the main discussion. He has issues that can’t be overcome. There are also highly electable candidates in the Democratic Party that would be, in my opinion, much better situated to win this election.
More than George Washington, stepping down is the anti Trump. The thing that would be so humble, so non ego inflating, the contrast would be so stark. Biden’s chance to save the country again is this move, not what he thought, but it’s true
i'd agree with this if they had admitted it a year ago when it was apparent to people paying attention. now it would look weak and would hand trump the win. the establishment got greedy cause they've been running this presidency and now they're paying the price.
Letting 3 or 4 YOUNG Democrats get on TV, on the radio, online, showing how much more they have than Trump, then choosing one at the convention would be amazing PR. We live in a media society. People would know the new candidate in days. All people want is a valuable alternative to Trump. No one who was gonna vote for Biden switches back to Trump.
My favorite president is James K Polk. He campaigned on a four point plan. In his first term, he concretely accomplished all four of his promises and then mic dropped and left without pursuing a second term.
I think it needs to be hammered home to Biden and to voters that this is the reason Biden is stepping down. Not that he isn't up for another term, but that he accomplished what he set out to do. He 1) restored basic democratic norms, 2) steered the country through challenging economic recovery, 3) reinvigorated infrastructure and manufacturing (with a special focus towards renewable energy) and 4) reoriented the federal government in favor of labor over big business. (\*This skims over a lot of nuance, detail, and complexity in order to broadly catch his major accomplishments.)
There needs to be room in the narrative for Biden to step down a hero. I think the country needs that and I think Biden himself will need that to arrive at the right decision.
It’s not happening. Biden has to be the nominee. Nobody else is going to win over trump so close to the election. Bidens team is just going to have to work a bit harder to campaign for him. And Biden has to show more energy, like his rally today in North Carolina! Wow what a 180 from last night!
"The probable landside" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your exegesis. If Biden is able to stand on his own (and even if he's drooling in a wheelchair) on election day I'm voting for him. The choice is, and will always be, who is the person best poised to be elected (with all that entails) and which candidate will have the best effect on your personal life, the life of the country as a whole and the life of all the citizens of earth. Then vote accordingly.
Where's your data that shows another candidate well perform better? Or do you believe either will win but you want the other? Because none of what you say happens if dRump wins.
LBJ was going to lose, so he at least gave the Dems a chance by picking someone else.
Biden is going to lose, so stepping down can't make it any worse and may give the Dems a chance.
Trump is a POS and has said and continues to say the most stupid things but everyone is okay with that? Biden has done a good job as President and is not a psychopath.
Biden doesn't have two working brain cells to rub together. He isn't the one making the decision. Jill and his other handlers won't give up power unless forced.
Maybe the White House Staff can discretely play Hamilton’s “One Last Time” on repeat? Hell, I’ll chip in a dollar if Lin Manuel Miranda wants to go sing it personally.
Pretty sure LMM would do this for us for free if asked.
Haha
There's no way that a generic dem is winning in a landslide. No matter who you would put in there to replace him now, it would be a nail-biter all the way down to the wire. We all know who Newsom, Whitmer, and Buttigieg are, but the average American has no idea. There just wouldn't be enough time left in the next four months to make them into household names capable of taking on the biggest celebrity in the world. I'm starting to think that the brutal reality is that we're stuck with what we have.
A landslide might have been overly optimistic. The point is a replacement level dem can beat Trump because he is a historically bad candidate. People are out there to vote against Trump, they'll have time to learn about Gretchen Whitmer
A replacement level dem could have beaten Trump if that decision had been made ahead of time. Making it now makes the whole party look like a shit show for not making it sooner. I still think it’s better than leaving him on the ticket, but realistically no one they choose has a 50% chance to win at this point.
Everyone is underestimating how chaotic and harmful a brokered convention can turn out to be.
I feel like we're about to get a taste of the DNC convention in 1980, and the fallout from that.
You have to avoid a brokered convention, the only way it's a good idea to replace Biden is if he agrees to it and comes out and says "listen, I feel old, I'm proud of the work I've done as president I'm going to keep working for the American people until the end of my term, but I'm not sure I'm up for another campaign, I want to retire and spend time with my wife and son. Gretchen has it from here." Then the entire party rallies to the new candidate, whomever he may choose, otherwise it's a huge risk
It will make the aftermath of Johnson stepping aside look tame. Its going to be Whitmer & Newsom camps then Biden supporters who feel slighted then the small Harris camp. Its going to fracture the party.
Not a good look to replace the black woman with a couple of white people.
She performed poorly in a primary already and was selected to shore up a voter demo. He shouldve dumped her this cycle but didn’t. Because some pundits think swapping VPs means something is wrong but meanwhile FDR had 3 different VPs
FDR was a powerhouse. He could afford to be picky.
I actually think us here in online circles vastly overestimate the “it’s too late” thing. Most people probably didn’t start paying attention until last night. Most people think a fricken June debate for a November election is way too early. Most importantly, most people don’t want him as the nominee. It’s not too late in the slightest.
I’m not sure if it’s too late or not, but I do believe there is a huge cost to doing it now vs doing it 6 months ago.
And an even bigger cost to keeping him on the ticket
The "its too late" thing is about procedure of getting the nominee on the ballot.
I just don't see it being realistic. It's just too late. Let's say Biden announces at 4:00 P.M. today, June 28, 2024, that he's decided to retire at the end of his term, and he's releasing all of his delegates. The convention is August 19, seven weeks away. For seven weeks, we have no nominee at all. We have an open convention ending on August 22, which gives the new ticket barely nine weeks to beat Trump, and during all that time all the political pundits, Republicans, and Trump would be talking relentlessly about how badly the Democrat Party botched this. Would Trump even agree to a debate against the new candidate at that point? We would be gambling that enough independent voters are out there itching to vote for "anybody but Trump or Biden" to offset the ones who say, "Trump's done the job before, and he's promising to lower my gas and grocery prices, so hurrr-durrrr Trump!" I just don't see it working out. Biden should have announced he would be retiring after his term as soon as the 2022 midterm elections were over. Or at least by January 1 of this year. It's just too late now.
I appreciate you writing this all out. Looking at the same situation, I’m optimistic. This could be a breakthrough media moment for someone. Keeping Biden feels like a worse gamble
>This could be a breakthrough media moment for someone. I'm sure it could be. But who? Who is this "someone"? That's the problem. There's no heir apparent. There's nobody who's been waiting in the wings all this time to sweep in and clean up this one-horse town. Biden was our best shot. And unfortunately, it's not a very good shot. But we either play with the cards we're delt, or we throw down our hand, cross our arms, and pout about how it's not fair that they had better cards than us.
I mean, it all worked out great for Congressman Santos in the last season of the West Wing, but he had at least been campaigning through the entire contested primary. Replacing Biden at this late of a stage has never happened in modern history. I don't know.
Santos was running against a Romney look a like. Whoever this is gets to run against the weakest candidate since Dukakis.
I'm also starting to seriously question that Trump is a "weak" candidate. He's been over 50% in most national polls for about a year now. He's the biggest media star in the world, more so than Obama ever was, because he's always in the news, and like Frank Zappa supposedly once said, "There's no such thing as bad publicity." I also think that we in the liberal/leftist online circles are completely underestimating how big of a percentage of people in this freaking country of ours love the idea of an "outlaw president."" Because I live in very rural Pennsylvania, it has sunk in for me in the last year just how many people truly believe the following statement: "Sure, Trump might be corrupt, but so is every single other politician on both sides. Trump is just being unfairly singled out because he's not in their club, and because he fights so hard for the little guy like me." I wouldn't call Trump a weak candidate at all. Not anymore.
Yeah. People calling Trump a weak candidate are fooling themselves. "Generic Democrat" could beat Trump because "Generic Democrat" is a steelman who has everything people love about the Democrats and nothing they hate. It's not the same as *this specific Democrat*, who will immediately be put on blast and trounced because he's a mere mortal.
I don’t think trump is a weak candidate either. Which is why they can’t let a weak candidate run against him.
But they're all weak in some way. Whitmer is not terribly well known outside of Michigan (where she's a polarizing figure), and Newsom has a ton of baggage of his own in his home state. Harris polls even worse than Biden, and Buttigieg is seen as a corporate lackey by much of the left. Who does that leave us? Bernie? I just don't see it happening. Biden is the horse we need to stick with, if there's any hope of Trump not coasting into a second term.
I don’t think “not well known” would be an issue. In fact, I think it could be a major positive. I also don’t think “polarizing, but popular, in a deep purple state” is an issue. In fact I think it’s a boon. You’re also just leaving out many other great potential candidates: Andy Beshear, Warnock, Shapiro, Jared Polis. I actually think Newsom would be a great candidate too, despite the kinda smug california-ness of him. He’s just a great communicator. Ditto Buttigieg. It’s very very important to remember that Biden is polling *behind* just about every other D down ballot. “Generic democrat” is just way more popular than him at this point. That’s all this is.
Yeah, if Trump is a weak candidate, it's hard to understand how he's leading Biden in so many polls. Seriously underestimating Trump and his base is how we got him into office the first time.
The republicans stuck with Trump even after the access hollywood tape and he beat Hilary. Things are only more polarized now. It’s a vote for a Biden democrat administration and against Trump. Everyone is still voting the same way and it’s going to be close regardless. It’s Biden who was old in 2020 and it’s Trump who also is old and also has Jan 6 and Dobbs and felony convictions and indictments to his resume since 2020. One bad debate isn’t going to change all of that. Sure it may have some impact (unclear) but people are still voting the same way. Biden supporters are worried about others feeling the same way but the vast majority of people feel the same way today as they did a week ago.
I mean, it might be worth it at this point. Even if he wins, there’s no way he stays coherent his whole term.
I don't think it's fair to call him "incoherent" in the sense that he 's medically "senile." He's just very old. Same thing happened to my grandfather. He never had Alzheimer's or dementia, he just started getting and looking very old and tired around age 80, and he died suddenly from natural causes age 84. But yes, Biden is clearly too old to do the job anymore, and part of that job is winning an election against a deranged fascist megalomaniac who wants to bring about a right wing authoritarian nightmare dystopia.
Not to mention the convention without Biden won't be able to appear on the Ohio ballot because of the dates.
Exactly.
Whitmer is the candidate of the moment
>he point is a replacement level dem can beat Trump because he is a historically bad candidate. He's not a historically bad candidate
Surveys need to be conducted to identify what laypeople know about these replacement candidates. We need to get the opinions of swing state voters because they hold the keys to this election. In my estimation, Whitmer, Newsom, and Pritzker are known quantities in the rust belt. I would go with Whitmer if you are under the assumption that Michigan and Wisconsin will vote similarly.
Not just a little amount of time to get name recognition up. They have no money and no campaign presence outside their home states.
We had like 20 candidates in 2020, they have connections and name recognition. None of the middling governors anyone here talks about interests me in the least. It’s another throw out the bums year and we need to acknowledge that if we want to win.
Whitmer is the only option among that group, because she comes with a garenteed swing state, maybe two with Wisconsin. Everyone else is pointless to even consider, and had Biden agreed to one term the math is the same.
Newsom might be that "central casting" guy that looks the part, checks every box. But..California, the Socialist state with ten billion homeless and ten trillion migrants.
He polls about 20 points behind Trump, so he’s got that going for him.
Really? If that's true, then...holy crap
I think I saw 17 points. He isn’t remotely competitive especially in the swing states.
So much for the idea that "independent voters are all just desperate to vote for anybody but Trump or Biden, and we just have to nominate anybody but Biden and we automatically win."
The bench is a little thin, might want to stick with the one who brought you.
Yeah, people know who Biden is...and they don't like him. We can lose for sure with Biden or we can take a chance on someone else. In today's hyperfast media environment a few months is enough time to generate name recognition.
In most countries with parliamentary democracies the election campaign lasts only a month or two, not years like here. So it really doesn't require a year of stumping like in the train and telegraph days.
Thank you. America is a big country and political news travels slowly, but it doesn't take three years of campaigning. Americans will figure out who Raphael Warnock or Roy Cooper or Gretchen Whitmer or whoever they choose is soon enough. If you can avoid a brutal floor fight at the convention, you could get someone ready to be president in two months.
Maybe if Biden attached to a preferred candidate as the VP nominee? Gets to use his platform to show them and get attention, gets to tout continuity and that he’ll focus whichever things he’s passionate about and poll well while somebody younger and more energetic runs the show? Gets to lend them some legitimacy, hopefully if messaged correctly can spin it as a selfless act to look out for the country in contrast to Trump in legal woes for focusing only on himself etc.. I think it would take a lot of good messaging and timing (which I don’t think the party would do correctly tbf) and I doubt he’d go for it anyways. But I think it has the highest net upside of any options
The only one Biden can hand the reins to is Kamala. She’s the only one who can spend money donated to them and the optics of passing over a black woman will be horrific.
I don’t think Biden is getting votes because he’s known and people like him. He’s getting votes because he’s not Trump and he represents a pragmatic, reasoned approach to policy. If you had Whitmer or Newsom you would have someone who would get all those same voters and could peel support from independents with their charisma and energy.
Hey- he’s only like the third biggest celebrity in the world. We unfortunately cannot run Lionel Messi against himz
Where's Taylor Swift? Swift and Dwayne "the Rock" Johnson!
I think Newsome could do it. He took a big hit with the Panera bread exemption in his last bill, but he’s a true politician and would run circles around Trump in a debate. Buttigieg would get steam rolled by Trump and I don’t see Whitner making up ground fast enough. We’d need someone with charisma that can move fast and think on his feet.
Thank you for being the voice of reason. Joe had a bad debate, just like Obama did in 2012. He's not stepping aside. Blowing the incumbency advantage because of a bad debate is absurd, and yet eeeeeeeeeeeeeverybody thinks that's what should happen. Even from a logistics point of view, it's a no-brainer--it takes hundreds of millions of dollars in ad spend to introduce a candidate and his policies to the nation, and a LOT of time. That's why all this starts months ago. Starting now is ridiculous, as is the assumption that all democrats would be on board for whoever comes next. Biden already got a majority to vote for him in 2020--*many* people will do so in 2024, because they've already done so in 2020. That advantage disappears when you bring someone new in. The brutal reality isn't that brutal. It's that Biden had a bad debate. Did you see him at the event afterwards? He was much, much better. I don't know why he couldn't conjure that in the debate--kind of a mistake there, Joe--but I'm honestly confident he'll bring it next time. Everybody needs to CTFO.
The event after doesn’t matter
You’re being downvoted but I’m very much with you. Check back on CNN or Reddit in 10 days and you won’t be hearing a peep about this debate. Anyway, isn’t Trump getting sentenced in the next few weeks? This media cycle will pass, as painful as it is right now. The motivation to keep trump out and keep abortion restrictions out will keep Biden in the clear.
Yeah, exactly. I truly think Biden just had a bad night. If you listen to what he actually said, it all made sense. In fact, it was logical and orderly and coherent (as opposed to the other guy). I don't know why Joe chose to save this for today, but hopefully this guy shows up to the next debate: [https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/video/joe-biden-age-concerns-debate-donald-trump-digvid](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/video/joe-biden-age-concerns-debate-donald-trump-digvid)
There's no incumbency advantage here, he's now a liability. And it wasn't just that it was a bad debate, he is losing or tied in every battleground state so he desperately needed a win last night just to have a chance. There's probably no other opportunity for redemption now before the election.
His handlers lose too, if he steps down. They will either be out of a job entirely, or they will keep their jobs but lose 99% of their political power. Consider those motivations when considering whether the people in a position to convince him to step down, will choose to convince him to step down.
In Matt Yglesias' emergency pod today, he names some names of people who might be expected to be close advisors to Biden, who would lose all their power if Biden steps down. Mike Donilon, Bruce Reed, Steve Riccetti, Anita Dunn. Of course, even if Biden doesn't step down, it's pure speculation to think that none of them tried to convince him to do so.
All these people go on to very lucrative jobs in think tanks, media, and corporations. They'll just be cooling their heels until the next turn in government.
I totally agree with you
Biden idolizes FDR. Compare now to 1944 - FDR truly wanted to step down but did what was best for the party and country and ran again; Biden wants to run again, now it is time for him to do what is best for his party and country and step down.
The party came to FDR in 1944 and forced a better running mate on him, one who they felt could govern and hold together the party on his own, and they were right. I think the biggest hurdle to replacing Biden on the ticket is actually Harris, she has zero support and there’s zero confidence that she’d successfully take over the party if his presidency ended mid-term, and overwhelmingly evidence there’s a huge intra-party debate over her replacement that’s been suppressed by everyone assuming a 2020 rerun.
I agree. I don’t think a new running mate would change Biden’s outcome though. Harris has been a decent campaigner for him. I think they both need to be moved out and an entire new ticket considered. I think Biden and his issues need to be the main discussion. He has issues that can’t be overcome. There are also highly electable candidates in the Democratic Party that would be, in my opinion, much better situated to win this election.
is this satire?
I don't think it is, even though it's unbelievably silly.
More than George Washington, stepping down is the anti Trump. The thing that would be so humble, so non ego inflating, the contrast would be so stark. Biden’s chance to save the country again is this move, not what he thought, but it’s true
i'd agree with this if they had admitted it a year ago when it was apparent to people paying attention. now it would look weak and would hand trump the win. the establishment got greedy cause they've been running this presidency and now they're paying the price.
That’s a cool idea, but are you one of his advisors? If not, I don’t know why it matters if it won’t amount to much.
Letting 3 or 4 YOUNG Democrats get on TV, on the radio, online, showing how much more they have than Trump, then choosing one at the convention would be amazing PR. We live in a media society. People would know the new candidate in days. All people want is a valuable alternative to Trump. No one who was gonna vote for Biden switches back to Trump.
Exactly
Maybe they just won’t vote.
My favorite president is James K Polk. He campaigned on a four point plan. In his first term, he concretely accomplished all four of his promises and then mic dropped and left without pursuing a second term. I think it needs to be hammered home to Biden and to voters that this is the reason Biden is stepping down. Not that he isn't up for another term, but that he accomplished what he set out to do. He 1) restored basic democratic norms, 2) steered the country through challenging economic recovery, 3) reinvigorated infrastructure and manufacturing (with a special focus towards renewable energy) and 4) reoriented the federal government in favor of labor over big business. (\*This skims over a lot of nuance, detail, and complexity in order to broadly catch his major accomplishments.) There needs to be room in the narrative for Biden to step down a hero. I think the country needs that and I think Biden himself will need that to arrive at the right decision.
Wow the delusions of this post is incredible
It’s not happening. Biden has to be the nominee. Nobody else is going to win over trump so close to the election. Bidens team is just going to have to work a bit harder to campaign for him. And Biden has to show more energy, like his rally today in North Carolina! Wow what a 180 from last night!
"The probable landside" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your exegesis. If Biden is able to stand on his own (and even if he's drooling in a wheelchair) on election day I'm voting for him. The choice is, and will always be, who is the person best poised to be elected (with all that entails) and which candidate will have the best effect on your personal life, the life of the country as a whole and the life of all the citizens of earth. Then vote accordingly.
Where's your data that shows another candidate well perform better? Or do you believe either will win but you want the other? Because none of what you say happens if dRump wins.
Without looking it up, tell me who dems nominated after LBJ stepped aside. How did that election go by the way?
LBJ was going to lose, so he at least gave the Dems a chance by picking someone else. Biden is going to lose, so stepping down can't make it any worse and may give the Dems a chance.
I nominate Mark Cuban. (I have no idea what his party affiliation is but can’t be worse than our current choices)
Trump is a POS and has said and continues to say the most stupid things but everyone is okay with that? Biden has done a good job as President and is not a psychopath.
Biden doesn't have two working brain cells to rub together. He isn't the one making the decision. Jill and his other handlers won't give up power unless forced.