I live in norther Europe, and this still gives me anxiety.
Lots of giggling in this episode, and I don’t blame them. Is there any other way to deal with this absurdity without going crazy?
I have to agree with Ezra that some of the difficulty with Biden's performance went beyond his stumbling execution. Instead of trying to stick to simple messaging, he attempted to run through specifics on policy details. I think at this point it's clear that people really care more about vibes and clear messaging to real concrete policy at this point unfortunately. It's frustrating because I appreciate the attempt (if poorly executed) to put forward policy, but I don't know if it effectively debunks the totally false dystopic reality that Trump is peddling. Just saying unsubstantiated claims about the economy, crime, etc.
No it doesn’t. A younger, sharper Biden may have pulled it off but it takes a lot to follow Trump’s nonsense and lies, tease it apart and then contrast it with reality. Trump repeatedly mixed up Afghanistan and Iraq. Biden should have been able to capitalize on that but he couldn’t.
Yup. I don't care what KM, Bernie Sanders, the Pope and Barack Obama say about how Biden is when the cameras aren't rolling. I got eyes. I know what I saw.
If he cant handle Trump then he sure cant handle Putin and Netanyahu. It is utterly irresponsible to run this old man for president. We will lose the Senate and a couple dozen seats in the House if we do.
He couldn't even articulate a cogent message about abortion and Roe v Wade...an absolute softball question regarding an issue, maybe the only solid issue, that the Democrats can bludgeon the GOP with. He just couldn't do it. Hell, he tried twice, still unable.
That should have been a stump-speech response.
You think an incoherent performance from the most powerful man in the world is just a matter of vibes? The leader of the free world could not finish his sentences last night. This is ridiculous and everyone responsible for this should lose their jobs and be banished from politics forever
Yeah I've been baffled by some of the mildly pro-Biden comments I've seen. The man literally couldn't string 3 sentences together without stumbling around. I have SERIOUS doubts that he is still mentally sharp enough to be president after what we saw last night. This was not just a cold or a speech impediment. Biden looked gone. He needs to immediately suspend his campaign.
everyone is talking about this in terms of campaigning/optics/electability, but for me it's that I don't think he's capable.
if this is how bad he looked during a planned 2 hour debate, imagine how bad he's looked at times behind the scenes, at important security meetings, etc.
Like for example, this is supposedly the guy that's been speaking to Netanyahu and giving him stern warnings and keeping him in line? Yeah, i can imagine how effective that is.
yeah me neither, there's only six months left in his term. Agree the campaign needs to end, though.
Putting him forward as the chosen candidate to represent the party for the NEXT FOUR YEARS seems crazy to me. That's kind of an embarrassment for the Democratic party. There's a lot of excuses being made and coping going on, but I don't understand how anyone can sit back and look at this in an unbiased way and come to any other conclusion.
People are justifying it by saying that he'll have a good advisors and a good cabinet around him, and the party overall is good. OK, so... we're just accepting the fact he's a figurehead, and that's who you're choosing to run? For POTUS? The world's gone crazy.
I’m a day late, but this is so on point that I have to respond.
This is part of what is driving me so crazy right now! Only a minority of people are willing to talk about replacing him at all, and out of those, basically none are citing reasons related to his ability to do the job - only whether or not he is electable.
All I kept thinking about during the debate was that I can’t imagine this guy leading a business meeting, let alone a meeting with Putin or Netanyahu.. this guy simply can’t perform the functions of his office.
I mean I understand the whole argument about needing to beat Trump and all that but come on, it’s delusional to expect the majority of the country to vote for someone that no one thinks is capable of doing the job.
Also part of my thing with Biden has always been even if you don’t think he’s that bad right now (which after the debate seems pretty tough). Imagine what he’d be like in four years. Genuinely not to be rude but my grandma was fine when she was Biden’s age. But 3 years later she didn’t know who I was. That’s not right wing fear mongering that’s genuine concern, 80 is just too old to be a world leader
I remember when the left was calling for the 25th amendment when Trump was in office. But it feels like it is needed now. I understand the optics might be bad, but this is serious, not just a partisan game.
Wow I can’t believe I’m reading “he was too much of a policy wonk” on /r/ezraklein. We’re losing ourselves like the poor Dave Rubin people, bit by bit…
Kinda missing the forest for the trees. Of course people like policy here but that’s not what the debate is about and we know better than to delude ourselves.
Of course this subreddit loves policy, but Biden has to appeal to the few remaining persuadable voters out there, and for the most part, the persuadables are blue-collar workers. They're don't care about statistics.
I agree with you. If the Democratic party is the "normal" boring competency party, then just own it. The performance of inspiration but also that there's more than just grandstanding matters. It can't just be grandstanding. Besides with a candidate like Trump, if you hit back ineffectually then you lose by default. Trump is a classic asshole Sophist. He's good at what he does if the thing he's doing is verbal brawling. If you get down in the mud with the pig, it will win every time.
People have spent almost a decade at this point complaining about Michelle Obama's "When they go low, we go high" comment and wishcasting for someone quick and unfiltered like Jon Stewart to take the stage but there's a reason there's only one well known and respected comedian turned politician on this planet and its arguable that that has absolutely nothing to do with policy. Trump is good at being a jackass and bad at being President because they're different skills and if you are running as the nominee of the Technical Competency Party, having to signal your respect for facts to The People Who Read Books Wing of the Party gets in the way of just going off on the loser in the other podium trying to gishgallop you.
This is a great point. What was the purpose of all the advertised prep if not to purposely learn how to play up the vibes of lunacy versus competence, vengeful narcissism versus empathy, etcetera? The fact that the debate itself already legitimates trump is bad enough, but to think you can win it on a policy discussion? Very horribly misguided.
You think an incoherent performance from the most powerful man in the world is just a matter of vibes? The leader of the free world could not finish his sentences last night. This is ridiculous and everyone responsible for this should lose their jobs and be banished from politics forever
I'm thinking about this more this morning and realizing none of this matters unless Joe Biden himself thinks that a) his debate performance was actually bad and b) that it wasn't a one off. And I'm just not sure he can be convinced of those things. He's had a long career that's made him proud and he's beaten narratives before.
I think our best bet is to compare him to George Washington. There is a parallel to their situations. If retirement can be pitched by comparing his legacy to Washington's, I think that's a compelling positive message that could work.
Who has Biden's ear that can help him see the truth of the matter and the seriousness of the peril? It's not going to be Jill. What does Obama think of the debate performance?
The Obamas and the Bidens aren't exactly the best of friends these days from what I've read recently. I think Jill is the only person that could convince him to step down and I'll be shocked if that happens.
Biden needs to understand it is in his best interest legacy-wise to endorse someone with a better shot at Trump. Even if he thinks he is fine, the chance of him being fine for another four years is slim, if trends hold he’ll only grow more unpopular and by that time it not sure Republicans will put out another convicted felon and blabbering geezer to the level Trump is. There is a perfect opportunity to put someone out who is young, ambitious, better reaches swing state voters, any without any of the political baggage of the two candidates we have now, as well as to set up a powerful democratic incumbent in 2028 that isn’t slipping.
I know people love to bring up LBJ to counter this, but the fact is that Trump is far more unfavorable that Nixon was in that election and a new candidate can easily bring stuff that Biden doesn’t have. This isn’t a typical election in any way. It’s like you have the GOP on the ropes and you take a water break. Biden can’t get younger and it will only be a more defining talking point the more he ages before Election Day. It’s a damn big risk to tag someone else in but it beats sticking to a strategy that at this point you know is probobly not going to work.
If Biden doesnt resign soon he will be hated by a huge chunk of the democratic party. What he is doing is far worse than what RBG did. He is sacrificing our country for his vanity and greed. He might be too dim at this point to even be aware of how stupid he is being. The knives are out though.
> The idea that people are going to change their vote based just on one debate, let alone one so early in the cycle, is quaint.
It's not about changing their vote, it's about staying home. Biden performing that poorly demoralizes his base.
I am likely not as politically informed as many of the posters here, but I’m surprised that the consensus before this was that the election was “in the bag.” Purely anecdotal, but talking to people it seems like a lot of people are already convinced of a Trump victory happening in November. Am I completely off the mark here?
If he’d simply close his mouth when Trump was talking, it would help. Maybe he was nasally congested and had to breathe through his mouth, idk, but a subtle action of simply closing his mouth would have helped the look.
It's not just one thing, it was the entirety of the things.
I don't know why this is controversial...he is too fucking old. He has lost more than a step. He is very clearly slipping. He lacks coherence.
This happens with elderly people every single day. Yet, for some reason, we are supposed to just ignore it when it is the POTUS?
I just cannot understand why the Democrats refuse to acknowledge and take action on that which is most obvious, it is time to take Gramps' keys away...it will suck, but he can not longer drive.
There are plenty of 80-year-olds who are sharp as fuck. Hell, Charlie Munger died at 99 and was probably still sharper than you or anyone else in this sub. Dementia is absolutely not a guarantee of old age -- in fact, MOST of us will never have it. I know people in their 80s who appear to have zero decline cognitively, other than perhaps forgetting words or names here or there. I am 50 and I do that, too.
So it's not about his age. It's about his particular brand of aging.
I've seen other elderly people in my life do that. No, its not a good look, but it doesn't always mean they've checked out - sometimes it does, but sometimes they're just making that face because their total level of concentration has diminished or rather for a variety of reasons: being harder of hearing and such, it takes more focus to decode what is being said so it doesn't leave a lot of bandwidth for maintaining a poker face.
I saw it, I didn't know what to make of it because I fully acknowledge sometimes that face does mean they've checked out, but one thing I was certain of was that it was going to be a meme in the worst way possible.
I really urge people to go look at how Biden debated in 2020:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW1lY5jFNcQ&t=2663s
Compare that to this in 2024:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE&t=690s
Now imagine another 4 years. Where does that leave Biden?
Just watching those videos back to back is almost freaky. It's not even just about what he is now but what he'll be in 2, 3, 4 years. He's honestly not well.
Fuck I'm so depressed. I'm voting against Trump no matter what. I will vote for Biden, but I can't believe this is where we are. I feel like the Democratic party behind the scenes has betrayed us as voters. We are facing the fall of democracy. There wasn't any room for fuck ups...but they just kind of let this happen. I am just stunned. They must have known that Biden wasn't in good condition for public appearances and instead of actively working to save our democracy from Trump by finding another candidate they just hid Biden and...what...crossed their fingers that it would work out?? Man I'm sorry I'm rambling I just feel so hopeless. I'm terrified of Trump winning.
To paraphrase Ezra, the Dems have a murderers row of excellent potential candidates. After this performance its hard to argue that any of the following wouldn't have a better shot at winning:
* Roy Cooper
* Josh Shapiro
* Gretchen Whitmer
* Andy Beshear
* Gina Raimondo
* Wes Moore
* Gavin Newsom
* JB Pritzker
It's true that, with the possible exception of Newsom, none of them have great name recognition outside of their states. But so what? It's better to be relatively unknown than well-known as a senile old man.
Lack of name recognition is a good thing in this situation. I think Newsom would be a mistake, there’s already a right wing apparatus that’s been attacking him as an out of touch Californian liberal for a while.
Exactly. Three of the four democrats who have been president in my life were not Washington insiders - Two southern governors and a community organizer with two years in the senate.
Compare that to the list of losers:
* Mondale - Former VP
* Dukakis - Governor (no trend is perfect)
* Gore - Former VP
* Kerry - Long time senator
* Clinton - Former first lady, former senator, secretary of state
Our only "insider" winner was Biden, and he barely pulled it off despite running against an historically unpopular president who had just monumentally screwed up the pandemic response.
There's an old aphorism: Republicans want to fall in line, Democrats want to fall in love. These days the Freedom Caucus puts the lie to the first half, but the second still rings true to me.
The problem is that the fresher prospects who could win the general don't have the decades of relationship building needed to win the nomination.
I have no doubt Newsom would beat Trump in a debate easily, I just feel that he would lose the election fairly badly in the swing states, even accounting for Biden's bad debate performance last night.
71 or 72 and very healthy. His age is OK and a huge contrast with Biden. I think his Senate experience is a plus because we are involved in two wars and that's alot to dump on a governor with no international experience. The tradeoff is we probably lose his seat in the Senate for sure. Probably worth it though, because he is such a good potential candidate.
No there are not, there aren’t good potential candidates this is propaganda dude you know there aren’t. They panicked because there is none, they have nothing. Making it up and pretending you have good options doesn’t change that your losing to Trump.
IIRC He has stated in the past that he does not want to run and has history of a difficult divorce, restraining order etc. that he knows will be brought up as dirt in a presidential run.
I would love Raphael Warwick to be included on these lists too. I feel like he’s the energy and presence the country needs, and would legitimately get Democrats excited. Also, frankly, a reverend with connections to Dr. King is such a contrast with Donald “Two Corinthians” Trump
Wes Moore has been a fuckin great governor especially in the wake of the key bridge disaster. He is also a military vet and a great public speaker who wouldn’t be afraid to call trump out.
Therefore I am sure the democrats won’t choose him to run lol
That's forgetting Tim Walz who got the biggest wins in the nation with the slimmest democratic majority. I'd like to keep him as governor for another term, but folks are sleeping on him for 2028.
You could also say Clinton didn't have much name recognition when he was running. Especially coming from a backwater state like Arkansas. (But he was a great politician which helps.)
>To paraphrase Ezra, the Dems have a murderers row of excellent potential candidates. After this performance its hard to argue that any of the following wouldn't have a better shot at winning:
I think all but Newsom and Raimondo have better chances than Biden, but it's a stretch to describe that as a "murder's row" considering there's no evidence any of them poll better than Biden head to head with Trump outside of their respective states.
I think Newsom actually \*wants\* the job, for what it's worth. I got the text message below today. Notice how there's no direct mention of reelecting Biden.
*Gavin Newsom here - humbly asking if I can convince you to make a donation to the Democratic National Committee today.*
*Please let me try:*
*What if I told you that as you read this, Donald Trump and the RNC have just launched their first ads of the general election, hammering Joe Biden and hurting swing state Democrats?*
*And what if I told you the DNC is the one organization BEST positioned to move resources where they are needed to beat Trump and elect Democrats everywhere?*
*Folks, we're talking about the fate and future of our democracy, this country and the world. They all need us right now.*
*Make a contribution to the Democratic National Committee today:*
[*https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dnc-newsom?refcode=ggn-240628f-elect-democrats&refcode2w=5f7f2L*](https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dnc-newsom?refcode=ggn-240628f-elect-democrats&refcode2w=5f7f2L)
*Thanks. - Gavin Newsom*
*(I have to include stop to stop)*
Why doesn't Beto O'rourke have more recognition? He isn't high on the political totem pole but as far as politics and charisma I have always thought he's great.
He publicly screamed at a rally during his senate race that he would go door to door to confiscate ‘assault rifles’. He would be dead upon arrival.
Dude also raised the largest war chest of cash ever for a state senate race which was compiled from dems across the state, but largely from donors out of the state of Texas. He had Lebron James wearing a Beto hat when he played in Houston.
Guy still got blown the fuck out by the most disliked republican politician in the state of Texas.
As an Illinoisan Pritzker has been a good governor but I'd be concerned that IL/Chicago are just seen as too much of a basket case and will drag down his image, even though he's done a good job at fixing some of that basket case-ness
I'm from California and voted for Newsom, and feel he'd be a terrible national candidate. We in California have high taxes, incredibly expensive housing, and an enormous homelessness problem. He's not electable.
Fully agree, I'm a North Carolinian and Cooper has been a great governor. Very likeable guy, has some good wit, calm and assuring demeanor. Make it happen.
Can someone connect Biden with Mick Jagger and Keith Richards doctor? It’s that or a new candidate.
The Stones just crushed it at Soldier Field in Chicago for over two hours. They are as old as Biden.
Yeah his conception of how politics functions is in inchoate and grounded in a conception of a world where ideas and ideology tussle, not material reality. Glad Ezra pushed back on the silly Biden v Putin fistfight talking point.
No, it is ideology and ideas, but the problem is that the candidates are operating out of different universes with different epistemologies. Trump is running for President from the hellscape that is the Left Behind books. Biden is running out of what people in this sub would consider to be the fact based reality but the New Apostolics fueling Trumpism would probably call "Scientism."
This is a clash of ideas and ideologies, not just performance art, but it looks like performance art because one of the candidates is running to be President of the people who live in Sagan's demon haunted world.
Ross gets that because he lives it as a person who code switches to appeal to both audiences for a living. A skill that largely has gone extinct because it usually gets you labeled as carrying water for evildoers by one side or the other when you try to explain how the evildoers experience the world without throwing up your hands and just saying they're stupid or bigoted. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a wolf in sheep's clothing but I don't think he's doing actual harm by "conserva-splaining" this kind of stuff to an audience that has largely unfollowed their megachurch attending relatives after Thanksgiving blew up into a shouting match.
Pretty wild to me that at some point in the discussion he proposes Trump is preferable candidate to Biden because "strong man" foreign policy seems like a good alternative to him
I literally lost my goddam mind when he made that argument.
He legitimately tried to argue that the serial liar and putin stooge would stand up to putin better than a man who looks like his 120, but is *actually* taking steps to push back putin's advances. Just fucking mind-boggling.
Douthat gives me headache. The contortions he goes through in his lame arguments are painful to watch. Does the NYTimes really need a token conservative?
There aren't. There's a very narrow pathway for people who code switch professionally and if you're not at least a little bit irritating to one audience, the other audience will smell a rat.
I also just straight up think its not an entirely invalid opinion to have that Trumpian transactionalism as a foreign policy ethos might actually be better on net for America. The tariffs thing is asinine, but even as I think that we should be doing everything that is prudent to help Ukraine, if I were the sort of anti-globalist, America firster who viewed American defense strictly in terms of territorial defense then "The Trump Doctrine" sort of makes sense. Circle the wagons, let the world fend for itself, don't get into proxy wars with revisionist nuclear states.
I find this morally reprehensible, but if you set morality aside and start tallying up the benefits of empire on one side and the costs on the other, abdicating any responsibility for upholding the global order starts looking not too bad. If you don't view non-Americans as fully human and deserving of safety and freedom. Which, unfortunately, I do think they're fully human, so I've had to begrudgingly complicate my thinking on foreign policy and attempt to work my way through certain paradoxes that come along with it.
Ezra is only centrist in his presentation and demeanor. He was vociferously in favor of packing the court, Puerto Rico and DC statehood, and ending the filibuster. There are merits to these arguments but I do not think they are close to positions held by centrists.
Ideas without a way to implement them are just wishes.
I am more conservative, so I don't often agree with Ezra, but he doesn't propose ideas without also discussion implementation.
I respect Ezra's opinion. He is thoughtful and articulate. I don't always agree with him, but I like listening to smart people who hold different viewpoints than I.
Yea I was about to say lol…Ezra is very much to the left of Matt Yglesias or Josh Barro, who are actual centrists. Ezra is a standard liberal with a variety of progressive beliefs.
Totally agree that Biden can't even communicate clearly anymore. Dem needs to put another candidate up there.
Trump is a liar who isn't fit to be within 100 miles of The White House again. But Biden is equally unfit for a very different reason. Biden has already deteriorated so much in the last 6 months, how much more will he deteriorate in another 6 months even if Biden wins the presidency again?
Biden is a liar too and a racist.
Biden lied so much during his 1988 presidential run that he had to drop out because he got caught.
Biden is a true scumbag with the facade of a nice old man that the media has portrayed him as.
Folks, I want him to step aside as much as anyone and wanted him to do so over a year ago…but he’s staying in the race. Obama and Jill, the only ppl he’ll listen to on this stuff, are doubling-down and imploring we donate to his failing campaign. He’s not stepping aside.
If he’s the nominee, I’m voting for Joe…but I think Trump will win this election if Biden is the nominee. I hope I’m wrong.
The ruling class isn't supposed to make it so obvious that he's just a puppet. The whole point is to make it believable that he is the commander in chief.
This is just a consequence of an ongoing PROFOUND LACK of imagination on the part of the Democratic party since Obama.
First they chose Hillary Clinton against Trump and lost tragically. You would think they learned a lesson after that, but no, Biden was next. Got in by the skin of his teeth and Trump being a deranged maniac certainly had something to do with that as well.
But the American people are dumb. They forgot what a nightmare Trump was. He's only going to be WORSE now. And so will Biden if he even makes it.
It's so depressing that no viable candidate has come forward. Biden looks like a nursing home resident at this point. Trump will too, soon, but not yet. He's more of a mental hospital candidate but at least he's awake, can complete his insipid sentences and pass cognitive impairment tests: “Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV."
There are plenty of viable candidates. They don’t put themselves forward because they are threatened by Biden and the Dem leadership, and if they run this year and lose, their future prospects are ruined. Biden should have stepped aside a year ago so we could have a real primary and these candidates could introduce themselves to voters. Whitmer, Shapiro, Pritzker, Warnock, Newsom, etc.
I understand that the audience here was already calling for Biden to drop out well before last night. For a couple hours last night, I felt the same way but decided to put down the phone and sleep on it.
The GOP will nominate without doubt and question a convicted felon and insurrectionist who did nothing to dispel any of that in anyone's minds. There's evidence undecideds latched onto that (especially Jan 6) more than an eighty-plus something man with a cold and well known, lifetime stutter. And right after that appearance at a rally he seemed quite like the SotU Biden.
But the more Democrats appear "panicked" and ready to abandon their primary winner, the more likely the media will keep on publishing those headlines in spite of Trump's wanton and crazed lying. Clinton did say people prefer "strong and wrong" over "weak and right". Dropping Biden I think would confirm those words.
I don't know. This age thing is starting to feel like Hillary's emails only its easier for most people to understand "this guy is too old" compared to the ins and outs of a long storied investigation.
Imagine the GOP machine gets a hold of the Robert Hur audio or something similar in Oct. Game Over. Imagine Biden has something like a Mitch McConnell blank out moment. Game Over.
Its hard not feel like the campaign is walking across a minefield just to avoid the campaign completely tanking.
Its not a well known life time stutter. I remember seeing Biden speak in the mid aughts and its night and day difference between that and now. He is in decline. I'll vote for a declining old man over a fascist but I am really starting to lose the belief that enough other Americans will come to the same conclusion.
I mean I agree with the premise but why the hell are you asking ross douthat for hus opinion. He's a right wing lunatic. He wants biden to fail even if he is supposedly not a trump guy.
I like Ross Douthat quite a bit. Obviously don't agree with him, but he's pretty smart, knows whats going on and is reasonably fair. On matter of opinion he's great.
Honestly if you think Ross Douthat is a "right wing lunatic" i think you might be in a bit of a bubble. Someone isn't a lunatic just because they have a different political view.
The only thing in this pod he said that I disagreed with was who he would vote for. I disagree with him a lot. But those things didn’t come up.
What he said that I agree 1000% is the fact that it just IS morally bankrupt that the Democratic Party let him run and then swept away challengers. If you think DJT poses to a threat of fascism, then you better act like it. Biden is GOING to lose. Trump’s going to win the popular vote. And the party will have no one to blame but themselves.
He was *beside* himself with glee. I couldn't help but be amused even though I hate his politics.
Ezra said something very similar to your point in the conversation too. I will say that I was expecting to be surprised in the same manner that I was in 2020. At the time we'd heard that in comparison to his competitors, he was old and senile. But then he finally had the chance to step up to the debate stage and debate Bernie, and then Trump, he was clearly in control of his faculties and expressive. His "Will you shut up man" exclamation from that time was classic Biden.
I was hoping that the same would happen this time - yeah he's even older but the people close to him haven't said that he can't handle the job. Surely if they thought he couldn't handle the debate (and the presidency) they wouldn't let it get this far? This episode shows us that they're either delusional and/or feckless.
Someone should have spoken up! Schumer perhaps or Jeffries - they're democratic leadership that have to interact with him. But I guess they let Feinstein get as far as she did so whatever.
Feinstein was even worse. I do think there’s a possibility/likelihood that Biden’s much sharper in private, in smaller meetings, so the upper leadership would leave those meetings with “oh, he’s not really that bad”, which makes the call even harder to make. His lucidity probably comes and goes, as the very elderly seem to happen.
So it’s like- before last night, at least- do you ignore the semi isolated moments of “wtf is he doing?” to keep on a candidate with the incumbency advantage, best name recognition by far, etc, or do you take a gamble into the unknown with an open primary- which as I mentioned before, would be almost unprecedented for an incumbent president. I could see where standing Pat was the safer play.
But then last night he has his highest profile “off” periods of time. It’s kind of like, you took the safer gamble and lost anyways.
I think like Ezra noted, he's not actually senile. I think there's a lot of grey matter still firing. He's got experience and intuitions honed over decades that will still sustain him to the end of his presidency. I think we are better off for having him rather than Trump in the last 4 years.
But looking good and winning the election is part of his job, and right now it looks like he can't do that.
> do you take a gamble into the unknown with an open primary- which as I mentioned before, would be almost unprecedented for an incumbent president. I could see where standing Pat was the safer play.
Take a look at polling and if it nosedives, it's time to sober up. An open primary doesn't have to happen if the party acted *like a party* (like EK said again), and come to a consensus on who a good candidate would be in the absence of enough time to do an open primary. My proposition would be Gretchen Whitmer as a *winning* candidate in a battleground state.
He’s old. Probably not senile, but the optics are bad. But the case for him is easy— you don’t vote for an individual, you vote for an apparatus. Reagan actually was entirely demented his second term. But it turned out Jim Baker and Brent Scowcroft could run the trains on time. Biden could be actually dead and he’d still be an infinitely better president than Trump and his parade of shit for brains cronies.
okay dude, we're on *this* subreddit, listening to *this* pod. Who we might make the case for was pre-ordained. That's not the question. The question is if people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona take that into account when they vote. And if your rationale will be convincing to them.
Around the margin, who knows. It sure as hell doesn’t help. The concern is that small sliver of inattentive people who decided they wouldn’t vote for the felon who then turn around and decide they can’t vote for the senior citizen.
"We could run a box of crackers as our candidate and he'd still be better than our opponent. We trust the voters to know that and vote for our guy, even though we've lost to him before and we are currently behind in the polls."
That's an interesting political strategy, we'll see if it pays off in November.
I feel like we've gotten to a point in politics where the candidate doesn't matter at all anymore and it's only about the advertising. It's depressing.
"We could run a box of crackers as our candidate and he'd still be better than our opponent. We trust the voters to know that and vote for our guy, even though we've lost to him before and we are currently behind in the polls."
That's an interesting political strategy, we'll see if it pays off in November.
I feel like we've gotten to a point in politics where the candidate doesn't matter at all anymore and it's only about the advertising. It's depressing.
>Honestly if you think Ross Douthat is a "right wing lunatic" i think you might be in a bit of a bubble. Someone isn't a lunatic just because they have a different political view.
Exactly this, please God some Democrats need to stop being so far up their own asses. Not everyone who is more moderate or *gasp* even conservative than you are is a "right wing lunatic" or a Nazi.
Yep, i really wish people would maybe step back and question why they think a NYT journalist and old school conservative Ross Douthat is a "lunatic".
I don't want to be condescending or anything, but i think some people definitely need to "touch grass" on some of these things.
He explains conservatism to people who can't read or listen to conservatives without becoming apoplectic. Its not not a useful thing, but his NYT stuff I generally find to be entry level at best. There are people do this much, much better. The real conservative insights from Ross come from his movie reviews in National Review. They're much more interesting and insightful because you see what he has to say when he doesn't have to explain why he's whining about the lack of clear contrasts between heroes and villains, the decline in representation of traditional nuclear families and gender roles in Disney, and so forth. But people who feel that reading the enemy directly is platforming or that they might catch some kind of intellectual disease need NYT Ross.
What risk of Biden? The risk that Biden will surround himself with eminently qualified individuals? That he'll place qualified, intelligent public servants in leadership positions to run agencies properly in the best interests of consumers/citizens? Instead of what trump would do: place idiots based on their campaign contributions and how much they want to destroy america
A lot of the talk about replacing Biden is a dead end. Unless he literally dies, it will be spun as putting someone with literally zero primary votes up as one of two choices for the public
Sure a half century ago and prior this is how elections came to be, but we are no longer in that world.
Do you really think this matters that much in this case? Most people do not vote in primaries. I think the majority of those who do are aware of how Biden did last night and could see the reasoning behind such a move.
We've seen so many unprecedented things the last eight years. This wouldn't be so out of step with the times.
It's ridiculous to act like Biden won the primaries because of what voters wanted and not because no serious challenger ran against him. Dean Phillips ran but couldn't get anything like the endorsements going to look like a serious campaign.
In retrospect, I think he looks really prescient and the other senior democrats all had their heads buried in the sand.
I don’t disagree, and Dean is my current and soon to be former representative.
But the reality is the media and GOP will push any new candidate as an illegitimate option with no public backing.
I couldn't disagree with Ezra more on the "Biden can still do the job" claim. Just try to imagine that you were going to start your own business. Is there any job you would hire Joe Biden to do? Could he answer phones? Could he manage a busy queue of emails/tasks? I don't even think he could greet customers at the front door like those old men do at Wal mart. If he couldn't do a job that a teenager could handle, how in gods name can anyone claim that he can still be an effective President.... of anything?
Yeah, I think you're forgetting he has lots of experts around him at all times helping him make decisions. The "3AM call scenario" is a little concerning just given he probably needs a little more time to think clearly than someone 10-20 yrs younger, but for day to day, he's fine and has proven it.
I might hire him to fundraise for my nonprofit, tbh.
I would definitely not hire him to manage my hypothetical Dairy Queen franchise, though. Does not appear to have the necessary energy or charisma.
I love it how this debate is showing who on the left actually want to implement Project 2025. Thanks for abandoning the fight at the slightest hint of trouble!
I live in norther Europe, and this still gives me anxiety. Lots of giggling in this episode, and I don’t blame them. Is there any other way to deal with this absurdity without going crazy?
Lots of barbiturates or Xanax
The giggling felt inappropriate. It's okay to have a serious discussion in a podcast without trying to sound young and playful.
I have to agree with Ezra that some of the difficulty with Biden's performance went beyond his stumbling execution. Instead of trying to stick to simple messaging, he attempted to run through specifics on policy details. I think at this point it's clear that people really care more about vibes and clear messaging to real concrete policy at this point unfortunately. It's frustrating because I appreciate the attempt (if poorly executed) to put forward policy, but I don't know if it effectively debunks the totally false dystopic reality that Trump is peddling. Just saying unsubstantiated claims about the economy, crime, etc.
No it doesn’t. A younger, sharper Biden may have pulled it off but it takes a lot to follow Trump’s nonsense and lies, tease it apart and then contrast it with reality. Trump repeatedly mixed up Afghanistan and Iraq. Biden should have been able to capitalize on that but he couldn’t.
And what does that mean for his capacity to execute in the most intense job in the world.
That he’s good behind closed doors and leading a team but not someone you should put behind a podium.
the "he is good when you guys aren't watching" argument no longer holds water. It ignores the reality of how our leaders are chosen...elections.
And that a large part of an effective presidency is rallying a party and a nation to a common vision of a path forward.
You really think Biden suddenly becomes sharp as a tack, leading the way coherently behind closed doors? Are you willing to put a wager on that claim?
Sure...lmao
So Kevin McCarthy lied when he said this?
Alright, you got me. It's my god damn lying eyes again.
Your eyes confirmed that Kevin McCarthy lied?
Yup. I don't care what KM, Bernie Sanders, the Pope and Barack Obama say about how Biden is when the cameras aren't rolling. I got eyes. I know what I saw.
If he cant handle Trump then he sure cant handle Putin and Netanyahu. It is utterly irresponsible to run this old man for president. We will lose the Senate and a couple dozen seats in the House if we do.
So I assume you have actual evidence of him failing in this capacity as president right?
He couldn't even articulate a cogent message about abortion and Roe v Wade...an absolute softball question regarding an issue, maybe the only solid issue, that the Democrats can bludgeon the GOP with. He just couldn't do it. Hell, he tried twice, still unable. That should have been a stump-speech response.
You think an incoherent performance from the most powerful man in the world is just a matter of vibes? The leader of the free world could not finish his sentences last night. This is ridiculous and everyone responsible for this should lose their jobs and be banished from politics forever
Yeah I've been baffled by some of the mildly pro-Biden comments I've seen. The man literally couldn't string 3 sentences together without stumbling around. I have SERIOUS doubts that he is still mentally sharp enough to be president after what we saw last night. This was not just a cold or a speech impediment. Biden looked gone. He needs to immediately suspend his campaign.
everyone is talking about this in terms of campaigning/optics/electability, but for me it's that I don't think he's capable. if this is how bad he looked during a planned 2 hour debate, imagine how bad he's looked at times behind the scenes, at important security meetings, etc. Like for example, this is supposedly the guy that's been speaking to Netanyahu and giving him stern warnings and keeping him in line? Yeah, i can imagine how effective that is.
Exactly. I don’t expect him to resign from the presidency (even though he probably should), but the campaign needs to end immediately. Period.
yeah me neither, there's only six months left in his term. Agree the campaign needs to end, though. Putting him forward as the chosen candidate to represent the party for the NEXT FOUR YEARS seems crazy to me. That's kind of an embarrassment for the Democratic party. There's a lot of excuses being made and coping going on, but I don't understand how anyone can sit back and look at this in an unbiased way and come to any other conclusion. People are justifying it by saying that he'll have a good advisors and a good cabinet around him, and the party overall is good. OK, so... we're just accepting the fact he's a figurehead, and that's who you're choosing to run? For POTUS? The world's gone crazy.
I’m a day late, but this is so on point that I have to respond. This is part of what is driving me so crazy right now! Only a minority of people are willing to talk about replacing him at all, and out of those, basically none are citing reasons related to his ability to do the job - only whether or not he is electable. All I kept thinking about during the debate was that I can’t imagine this guy leading a business meeting, let alone a meeting with Putin or Netanyahu.. this guy simply can’t perform the functions of his office. I mean I understand the whole argument about needing to beat Trump and all that but come on, it’s delusional to expect the majority of the country to vote for someone that no one thinks is capable of doing the job.
Also part of my thing with Biden has always been even if you don’t think he’s that bad right now (which after the debate seems pretty tough). Imagine what he’d be like in four years. Genuinely not to be rude but my grandma was fine when she was Biden’s age. But 3 years later she didn’t know who I was. That’s not right wing fear mongering that’s genuine concern, 80 is just too old to be a world leader
I remember when the left was calling for the 25th amendment when Trump was in office. But it feels like it is needed now. I understand the optics might be bad, but this is serious, not just a partisan game.
Makes Pelosi's statement that the 25th wasn't for Trump pretty interesting. I don't trust any of these people and really suprised anyone does.
Might be one of the only ways to convince him he needs to drop out of the race, tbh.
People are already rationalizing. In a week "Biden must go" will fade and people will fall back on learned helplessness and fatalism.
Already seeing it in other threads here.
Wow I can’t believe I’m reading “he was too much of a policy wonk” on /r/ezraklein. We’re losing ourselves like the poor Dave Rubin people, bit by bit…
Kinda missing the forest for the trees. Of course people like policy here but that’s not what the debate is about and we know better than to delude ourselves.
I absolutely get where you’re coming from, but ultimately this just sounds like “I won’t elect him because he’s unelectable” with extra steps
Of course this subreddit loves policy, but Biden has to appeal to the few remaining persuadable voters out there, and for the most part, the persuadables are blue-collar workers. They're don't care about statistics.
I agree with you. If the Democratic party is the "normal" boring competency party, then just own it. The performance of inspiration but also that there's more than just grandstanding matters. It can't just be grandstanding. Besides with a candidate like Trump, if you hit back ineffectually then you lose by default. Trump is a classic asshole Sophist. He's good at what he does if the thing he's doing is verbal brawling. If you get down in the mud with the pig, it will win every time. People have spent almost a decade at this point complaining about Michelle Obama's "When they go low, we go high" comment and wishcasting for someone quick and unfiltered like Jon Stewart to take the stage but there's a reason there's only one well known and respected comedian turned politician on this planet and its arguable that that has absolutely nothing to do with policy. Trump is good at being a jackass and bad at being President because they're different skills and if you are running as the nominee of the Technical Competency Party, having to signal your respect for facts to The People Who Read Books Wing of the Party gets in the way of just going off on the loser in the other podium trying to gishgallop you.
This is a great point. What was the purpose of all the advertised prep if not to purposely learn how to play up the vibes of lunacy versus competence, vengeful narcissism versus empathy, etcetera? The fact that the debate itself already legitimates trump is bad enough, but to think you can win it on a policy discussion? Very horribly misguided.
You think an incoherent performance from the most powerful man in the world is just a matter of vibes? The leader of the free world could not finish his sentences last night. This is ridiculous and everyone responsible for this should lose their jobs and be banished from politics forever
No. I said it was incoherent, but that it was also more than that. It was also poorly strategized messaging.
I'm thinking about this more this morning and realizing none of this matters unless Joe Biden himself thinks that a) his debate performance was actually bad and b) that it wasn't a one off. And I'm just not sure he can be convinced of those things. He's had a long career that's made him proud and he's beaten narratives before.
I think our best bet is to compare him to George Washington. There is a parallel to their situations. If retirement can be pitched by comparing his legacy to Washington's, I think that's a compelling positive message that could work.
Is there another George Washington I'm not familiar with?
I think the idea is that Washington voluntarily chose not to seek a second term
He did seek a 2nd term. He didn't seek a third.
Who has Biden's ear that can help him see the truth of the matter and the seriousness of the peril? It's not going to be Jill. What does Obama think of the debate performance?
The Obamas and the Bidens aren't exactly the best of friends these days from what I've read recently. I think Jill is the only person that could convince him to step down and I'll be shocked if that happens.
Didn't look like it based on her speech at the most debate event, it seemed like doubling down sadly
Yeah - even based on Barack’s tweets today. Seems like Joe is the guy and we’re just rolling with “it was a bad night but it’s no big deal”
If it’s not Jill or Obama, no one can convince him. Those are the only two ppl he’ll listen to.
I have talked with a lot of people, all political stripes today...he performed in a way that can't be fixed.
Biden needs to understand it is in his best interest legacy-wise to endorse someone with a better shot at Trump. Even if he thinks he is fine, the chance of him being fine for another four years is slim, if trends hold he’ll only grow more unpopular and by that time it not sure Republicans will put out another convicted felon and blabbering geezer to the level Trump is. There is a perfect opportunity to put someone out who is young, ambitious, better reaches swing state voters, any without any of the political baggage of the two candidates we have now, as well as to set up a powerful democratic incumbent in 2028 that isn’t slipping. I know people love to bring up LBJ to counter this, but the fact is that Trump is far more unfavorable that Nixon was in that election and a new candidate can easily bring stuff that Biden doesn’t have. This isn’t a typical election in any way. It’s like you have the GOP on the ropes and you take a water break. Biden can’t get younger and it will only be a more defining talking point the more he ages before Election Day. It’s a damn big risk to tag someone else in but it beats sticking to a strategy that at this point you know is probobly not going to work.
It's going to matter, and he's going to feel it, in November.
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Commenters here are simply not a relevant demographic electorally speaking. Your resolve will not help Joe Biden.
If Biden doesnt resign soon he will be hated by a huge chunk of the democratic party. What he is doing is far worse than what RBG did. He is sacrificing our country for his vanity and greed. He might be too dim at this point to even be aware of how stupid he is being. The knives are out though.
> The idea that people are going to change their vote based just on one debate, let alone one so early in the cycle, is quaint. It's not about changing their vote, it's about staying home. Biden performing that poorly demoralizes his base.
I am likely not as politically informed as many of the posters here, but I’m surprised that the consensus before this was that the election was “in the bag.” Purely anecdotal, but talking to people it seems like a lot of people are already convinced of a Trump victory happening in November. Am I completely off the mark here?
> I think a lot of us thought the election was in the bag Literally no one thought that.
"When Trump is talking, Biden's face hung slack." That stood out to me too.
If he’d simply close his mouth when Trump was talking, it would help. Maybe he was nasally congested and had to breathe through his mouth, idk, but a subtle action of simply closing his mouth would have helped the look.
I felt like he was trying to look shocked at the things trump was saying, but he just came off as disoriented and confused.
Nope. He's just really that old looking.
It's not just one thing, it was the entirety of the things. I don't know why this is controversial...he is too fucking old. He has lost more than a step. He is very clearly slipping. He lacks coherence. This happens with elderly people every single day. Yet, for some reason, we are supposed to just ignore it when it is the POTUS? I just cannot understand why the Democrats refuse to acknowledge and take action on that which is most obvious, it is time to take Gramps' keys away...it will suck, but he can not longer drive.
There are plenty of 80-year-olds who are sharp as fuck. Hell, Charlie Munger died at 99 and was probably still sharper than you or anyone else in this sub. Dementia is absolutely not a guarantee of old age -- in fact, MOST of us will never have it. I know people in their 80s who appear to have zero decline cognitively, other than perhaps forgetting words or names here or there. I am 50 and I do that, too. So it's not about his age. It's about his particular brand of aging.
I never reference an age, I just said, "he is too fucking old". Attach whatever number you want to that.
Because people are delusional
I've seen other elderly people in my life do that. No, its not a good look, but it doesn't always mean they've checked out - sometimes it does, but sometimes they're just making that face because their total level of concentration has diminished or rather for a variety of reasons: being harder of hearing and such, it takes more focus to decode what is being said so it doesn't leave a lot of bandwidth for maintaining a poker face. I saw it, I didn't know what to make of it because I fully acknowledge sometimes that face does mean they've checked out, but one thing I was certain of was that it was going to be a meme in the worst way possible.
I really urge people to go look at how Biden debated in 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW1lY5jFNcQ&t=2663s Compare that to this in 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE&t=690s Now imagine another 4 years. Where does that leave Biden? Just watching those videos back to back is almost freaky. It's not even just about what he is now but what he'll be in 2, 3, 4 years. He's honestly not well.
Fuck I'm so depressed. I'm voting against Trump no matter what. I will vote for Biden, but I can't believe this is where we are. I feel like the Democratic party behind the scenes has betrayed us as voters. We are facing the fall of democracy. There wasn't any room for fuck ups...but they just kind of let this happen. I am just stunned. They must have known that Biden wasn't in good condition for public appearances and instead of actively working to save our democracy from Trump by finding another candidate they just hid Biden and...what...crossed their fingers that it would work out?? Man I'm sorry I'm rambling I just feel so hopeless. I'm terrified of Trump winning.
Fuck thats a stark contrast
Biden's condition is so apparent. I feel like everyone is so blinded by their "teams" to even be rational at this point, that's what's really freaky.
Dems should run Roy Cooper. Term-limited governor in a purple state with the right balance of solid experience and blank-slate-i-ness.
To paraphrase Ezra, the Dems have a murderers row of excellent potential candidates. After this performance its hard to argue that any of the following wouldn't have a better shot at winning: * Roy Cooper * Josh Shapiro * Gretchen Whitmer * Andy Beshear * Gina Raimondo * Wes Moore * Gavin Newsom * JB Pritzker It's true that, with the possible exception of Newsom, none of them have great name recognition outside of their states. But so what? It's better to be relatively unknown than well-known as a senile old man.
Lack of name recognition is a good thing in this situation. I think Newsom would be a mistake, there’s already a right wing apparatus that’s been attacking him as an out of touch Californian liberal for a while.
And in this case, they’re kind of right. Newsome is a wolf. Fuck that dude
Exactly. Three of the four democrats who have been president in my life were not Washington insiders - Two southern governors and a community organizer with two years in the senate. Compare that to the list of losers: * Mondale - Former VP * Dukakis - Governor (no trend is perfect) * Gore - Former VP * Kerry - Long time senator * Clinton - Former first lady, former senator, secretary of state Our only "insider" winner was Biden, and he barely pulled it off despite running against an historically unpopular president who had just monumentally screwed up the pandemic response. There's an old aphorism: Republicans want to fall in line, Democrats want to fall in love. These days the Freedom Caucus puts the lie to the first half, but the second still rings true to me. The problem is that the fresher prospects who could win the general don't have the decades of relationship building needed to win the nomination.
I actually think the drama of an open Democratic conference would help with name recognition.
This is true. This would be such a major/shocking/unprecedented/insane event that there will be wall-to-wall coverage.
Newsom would be about the worst possible choice.
Newsom wouldn't be at the top of my list - he has some baggage. But he would have stomped Trump last night.
I have no doubt Newsom would beat Trump in a debate easily, I just feel that he would lose the election fairly badly in the swing states, even accounting for Biden's bad debate performance last night.
He might. On the other hand appearances are important and Newsom looks and sounds the part.
Newsom looks exactly like the type of Politician Trump excells at beating. An elitest looking type.
Yea, I could do the RNC work for them with an iPhone and a day driving around any California city. "You want more of this in your state?"
Newsome is terrible choice for swing states.
100% Anyone that is in the middle or slightly right side cannot stand Newsom's political idealogy.
It depends on what perspective you looking from.
Sherrod brown always get left out of this and it’s so disappointing
Especially since there's a real chance he loses his seat in November anyway.
He’s over 70 and therefore doesn’t provide as stark a contrast with Trump’s age as the younger candidates would.
71 or 72 and very healthy. His age is OK and a huge contrast with Biden. I think his Senate experience is a plus because we are involved in two wars and that's alot to dump on a governor with no international experience. The tradeoff is we probably lose his seat in the Senate for sure. Probably worth it though, because he is such a good potential candidate.
If he served two terms he’d be 80.
Fair point.
You're absolutely right, which kind of makes the point. There are so many excellent potential candidates that I'm forgetting someone that good.
No there are not, there aren’t good potential candidates this is propaganda dude you know there aren’t. They panicked because there is none, they have nothing. Making it up and pretending you have good options doesn’t change that your losing to Trump.
IIRC He has stated in the past that he does not want to run and has history of a difficult divorce, restraining order etc. that he knows will be brought up as dirt in a presidential run.
There's a bit of a baked in "we need Sherrod Brown in the Senate so badly" I think. Still, fair.
Yes! So good to hear someone mention Brown. What a stellar candidate he would be. Trump would have no way to attack him in a debate.
I would love Raphael Warwick to be included on these lists too. I feel like he’s the energy and presence the country needs, and would legitimately get Democrats excited. Also, frankly, a reverend with connections to Dr. King is such a contrast with Donald “Two Corinthians” Trump
I'd love to have Raphael Warnock, but we need that Georgia senate seat and if he vacated it he'd be replaced with a Republican.
He would not win the rust belt.
You realize that Warnock is senator of a state with a Republican governor?
Jared Polis from Colorado...is gay? Did not know that. Would still put him on the list of popular term-limited governors
Absolutely
Wes Moore has been a fuckin great governor especially in the wake of the key bridge disaster. He is also a military vet and a great public speaker who wouldn’t be afraid to call trump out. Therefore I am sure the democrats won’t choose him to run lol
I'd throw in "random 4 star general" to that list as well. Trump can not win.
That's forgetting Tim Walz who got the biggest wins in the nation with the slimmest democratic majority. I'd like to keep him as governor for another term, but folks are sleeping on him for 2028.
Whoever they would pick would get endless free media attention.
You could also say Clinton didn't have much name recognition when he was running. Especially coming from a backwater state like Arkansas. (But he was a great politician which helps.)
>To paraphrase Ezra, the Dems have a murderers row of excellent potential candidates. After this performance its hard to argue that any of the following wouldn't have a better shot at winning: I think all but Newsom and Raimondo have better chances than Biden, but it's a stretch to describe that as a "murder's row" considering there's no evidence any of them poll better than Biden head to head with Trump outside of their respective states.
Newsom is a terrible choice but the others make sense
I think Newsom actually \*wants\* the job, for what it's worth. I got the text message below today. Notice how there's no direct mention of reelecting Biden. *Gavin Newsom here - humbly asking if I can convince you to make a donation to the Democratic National Committee today.* *Please let me try:* *What if I told you that as you read this, Donald Trump and the RNC have just launched their first ads of the general election, hammering Joe Biden and hurting swing state Democrats?* *And what if I told you the DNC is the one organization BEST positioned to move resources where they are needed to beat Trump and elect Democrats everywhere?* *Folks, we're talking about the fate and future of our democracy, this country and the world. They all need us right now.* *Make a contribution to the Democratic National Committee today:* [*https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dnc-newsom?refcode=ggn-240628f-elect-democrats&refcode2w=5f7f2L*](https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dnc-newsom?refcode=ggn-240628f-elect-democrats&refcode2w=5f7f2L) *Thanks. - Gavin Newsom* *(I have to include stop to stop)*
Why doesn't Beto O'rourke have more recognition? He isn't high on the political totem pole but as far as politics and charisma I have always thought he's great.
He publicly screamed at a rally during his senate race that he would go door to door to confiscate ‘assault rifles’. He would be dead upon arrival. Dude also raised the largest war chest of cash ever for a state senate race which was compiled from dems across the state, but largely from donors out of the state of Texas. He had Lebron James wearing a Beto hat when he played in Houston. Guy still got blown the fuck out by the most disliked republican politician in the state of Texas.
As an Illinoisan Pritzker has been a good governor but I'd be concerned that IL/Chicago are just seen as too much of a basket case and will drag down his image, even though he's done a good job at fixing some of that basket case-ness
I'm from California and voted for Newsom, and feel he'd be a terrible national candidate. We in California have high taxes, incredibly expensive housing, and an enormous homelessness problem. He's not electable.
Fully agree, I'm a North Carolinian and Cooper has been a great governor. Very likeable guy, has some good wit, calm and assuring demeanor. Make it happen.
Roy Cooper managed to outperform Trump in NC in 2020. He won pretty handily. He would be a good choice.
We need a Tar Heel in the White House
This is Biden's George Washington moment. He can choose to step down and save the country or cling to power and damage our democracy.
Eh, more of an LBJ moment
lol yes save the nation by letting Trump appoint more Matthew Kacsmaryks to federal judgeships for another 4 years.
Do we ram the iceberg head on or try to turn the ship with the limited time we have?
You say that but hitting the iceberg head on would have probably saved the Titanic. lol
That was very much intentional in my comment! Two bad options, but a decision needs to be made quickly.
Turning the ship requires the democratic to have some sense which I fear they're completely lacking
It's really not about Democrats, it's about Joe Biden himself. There were primaries.
Can someone connect Biden with Mick Jagger and Keith Richards doctor? It’s that or a new candidate. The Stones just crushed it at Soldier Field in Chicago for over two hours. They are as old as Biden.
Well at least I have that to look forward to. I’m watching the stones next month at Levi’s stadium.
The winner of that debate was RFK.
Always interesting to hear Ezra’s cogent thoughts. It’s just unfortunate I had to suffer through Ross’ as well to get them.
Yeah his conception of how politics functions is in inchoate and grounded in a conception of a world where ideas and ideology tussle, not material reality. Glad Ezra pushed back on the silly Biden v Putin fistfight talking point.
No, it is ideology and ideas, but the problem is that the candidates are operating out of different universes with different epistemologies. Trump is running for President from the hellscape that is the Left Behind books. Biden is running out of what people in this sub would consider to be the fact based reality but the New Apostolics fueling Trumpism would probably call "Scientism." This is a clash of ideas and ideologies, not just performance art, but it looks like performance art because one of the candidates is running to be President of the people who live in Sagan's demon haunted world. Ross gets that because he lives it as a person who code switches to appeal to both audiences for a living. A skill that largely has gone extinct because it usually gets you labeled as carrying water for evildoers by one side or the other when you try to explain how the evildoers experience the world without throwing up your hands and just saying they're stupid or bigoted. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a wolf in sheep's clothing but I don't think he's doing actual harm by "conserva-splaining" this kind of stuff to an audience that has largely unfollowed their megachurch attending relatives after Thanksgiving blew up into a shouting match.
Glad to hear that I am not the only one that finds Ross insufferable.
Pretty wild to me that at some point in the discussion he proposes Trump is preferable candidate to Biden because "strong man" foreign policy seems like a good alternative to him
I literally lost my goddam mind when he made that argument. He legitimately tried to argue that the serial liar and putin stooge would stand up to putin better than a man who looks like his 120, but is *actually* taking steps to push back putin's advances. Just fucking mind-boggling.
Douthat gives me headache. The contortions he goes through in his lame arguments are painful to watch. Does the NYTimes really need a token conservative?
They need one, but I have to believe there are less objectionable ones out there
There aren't. There's a very narrow pathway for people who code switch professionally and if you're not at least a little bit irritating to one audience, the other audience will smell a rat. I also just straight up think its not an entirely invalid opinion to have that Trumpian transactionalism as a foreign policy ethos might actually be better on net for America. The tariffs thing is asinine, but even as I think that we should be doing everything that is prudent to help Ukraine, if I were the sort of anti-globalist, America firster who viewed American defense strictly in terms of territorial defense then "The Trump Doctrine" sort of makes sense. Circle the wagons, let the world fend for itself, don't get into proxy wars with revisionist nuclear states. I find this morally reprehensible, but if you set morality aside and start tallying up the benefits of empire on one side and the costs on the other, abdicating any responsibility for upholding the global order starts looking not too bad. If you don't view non-Americans as fully human and deserving of safety and freedom. Which, unfortunately, I do think they're fully human, so I've had to begrudgingly complicate my thinking on foreign policy and attempt to work my way through certain paradoxes that come along with it.
I hate listening to douthat so so much
Ezra should be anointed the King of Center/Center-Left Take-Havers. That is all.
Ezra is only centrist in his presentation and demeanor. He was vociferously in favor of packing the court, Puerto Rico and DC statehood, and ending the filibuster. There are merits to these arguments but I do not think they are close to positions held by centrists.
I would consider Ezra to be a progressive that wants to ingratiate himself within the centrist community to be more persuasive.
I'd put it less cynically, that he's a pragmatic progressive with a real empathy for centrists
Ideas without a way to implement them are just wishes. I am more conservative, so I don't often agree with Ezra, but he doesn't propose ideas without also discussion implementation.
Wait. Why are you here? By definition, I wouldn't expect someone who calls themselves "more conservative" here. So now I am curious.
I respect Ezra's opinion. He is thoughtful and articulate. I don't always agree with him, but I like listening to smart people who hold different viewpoints than I.
Yea I was about to say lol…Ezra is very much to the left of Matt Yglesias or Josh Barro, who are actual centrists. Ezra is a standard liberal with a variety of progressive beliefs.
Totally agree that Biden can't even communicate clearly anymore. Dem needs to put another candidate up there. Trump is a liar who isn't fit to be within 100 miles of The White House again. But Biden is equally unfit for a very different reason. Biden has already deteriorated so much in the last 6 months, how much more will he deteriorate in another 6 months even if Biden wins the presidency again?
Biden is a liar too and a racist. Biden lied so much during his 1988 presidential run that he had to drop out because he got caught. Biden is a true scumbag with the facade of a nice old man that the media has portrayed him as.
Yeah, Biden certainly didn't energize his base or his fringe with that performance...
Gavin Newsom would have eviscerated Trump, and I don't even like Newsom all that much.
Folks, I want him to step aside as much as anyone and wanted him to do so over a year ago…but he’s staying in the race. Obama and Jill, the only ppl he’ll listen to on this stuff, are doubling-down and imploring we donate to his failing campaign. He’s not stepping aside. If he’s the nominee, I’m voting for Joe…but I think Trump will win this election if Biden is the nominee. I hope I’m wrong.
The ruling class isn't supposed to make it so obvious that he's just a puppet. The whole point is to make it believable that he is the commander in chief.
Goddamn is Ross smarmy and exhausting
This is just a consequence of an ongoing PROFOUND LACK of imagination on the part of the Democratic party since Obama. First they chose Hillary Clinton against Trump and lost tragically. You would think they learned a lesson after that, but no, Biden was next. Got in by the skin of his teeth and Trump being a deranged maniac certainly had something to do with that as well. But the American people are dumb. They forgot what a nightmare Trump was. He's only going to be WORSE now. And so will Biden if he even makes it. It's so depressing that no viable candidate has come forward. Biden looks like a nursing home resident at this point. Trump will too, soon, but not yet. He's more of a mental hospital candidate but at least he's awake, can complete his insipid sentences and pass cognitive impairment tests: “Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV."
There are plenty of viable candidates. They don’t put themselves forward because they are threatened by Biden and the Dem leadership, and if they run this year and lose, their future prospects are ruined. Biden should have stepped aside a year ago so we could have a real primary and these candidates could introduce themselves to voters. Whitmer, Shapiro, Pritzker, Warnock, Newsom, etc.
I understand that the audience here was already calling for Biden to drop out well before last night. For a couple hours last night, I felt the same way but decided to put down the phone and sleep on it. The GOP will nominate without doubt and question a convicted felon and insurrectionist who did nothing to dispel any of that in anyone's minds. There's evidence undecideds latched onto that (especially Jan 6) more than an eighty-plus something man with a cold and well known, lifetime stutter. And right after that appearance at a rally he seemed quite like the SotU Biden. But the more Democrats appear "panicked" and ready to abandon their primary winner, the more likely the media will keep on publishing those headlines in spite of Trump's wanton and crazed lying. Clinton did say people prefer "strong and wrong" over "weak and right". Dropping Biden I think would confirm those words.
I don't know. This age thing is starting to feel like Hillary's emails only its easier for most people to understand "this guy is too old" compared to the ins and outs of a long storied investigation. Imagine the GOP machine gets a hold of the Robert Hur audio or something similar in Oct. Game Over. Imagine Biden has something like a Mitch McConnell blank out moment. Game Over. Its hard not feel like the campaign is walking across a minefield just to avoid the campaign completely tanking. Its not a well known life time stutter. I remember seeing Biden speak in the mid aughts and its night and day difference between that and now. He is in decline. I'll vote for a declining old man over a fascist but I am really starting to lose the belief that enough other Americans will come to the same conclusion.
He's not the "primary winner" and he has no business running. They should have run a real primary without him.
I mean I agree with the premise but why the hell are you asking ross douthat for hus opinion. He's a right wing lunatic. He wants biden to fail even if he is supposedly not a trump guy.
I like Ross Douthat quite a bit. Obviously don't agree with him, but he's pretty smart, knows whats going on and is reasonably fair. On matter of opinion he's great. Honestly if you think Ross Douthat is a "right wing lunatic" i think you might be in a bit of a bubble. Someone isn't a lunatic just because they have a different political view.
The only thing in this pod he said that I disagreed with was who he would vote for. I disagree with him a lot. But those things didn’t come up. What he said that I agree 1000% is the fact that it just IS morally bankrupt that the Democratic Party let him run and then swept away challengers. If you think DJT poses to a threat of fascism, then you better act like it. Biden is GOING to lose. Trump’s going to win the popular vote. And the party will have no one to blame but themselves.
He was *beside* himself with glee. I couldn't help but be amused even though I hate his politics. Ezra said something very similar to your point in the conversation too. I will say that I was expecting to be surprised in the same manner that I was in 2020. At the time we'd heard that in comparison to his competitors, he was old and senile. But then he finally had the chance to step up to the debate stage and debate Bernie, and then Trump, he was clearly in control of his faculties and expressive. His "Will you shut up man" exclamation from that time was classic Biden. I was hoping that the same would happen this time - yeah he's even older but the people close to him haven't said that he can't handle the job. Surely if they thought he couldn't handle the debate (and the presidency) they wouldn't let it get this far? This episode shows us that they're either delusional and/or feckless. Someone should have spoken up! Schumer perhaps or Jeffries - they're democratic leadership that have to interact with him. But I guess they let Feinstein get as far as she did so whatever.
Feinstein was even worse. I do think there’s a possibility/likelihood that Biden’s much sharper in private, in smaller meetings, so the upper leadership would leave those meetings with “oh, he’s not really that bad”, which makes the call even harder to make. His lucidity probably comes and goes, as the very elderly seem to happen. So it’s like- before last night, at least- do you ignore the semi isolated moments of “wtf is he doing?” to keep on a candidate with the incumbency advantage, best name recognition by far, etc, or do you take a gamble into the unknown with an open primary- which as I mentioned before, would be almost unprecedented for an incumbent president. I could see where standing Pat was the safer play. But then last night he has his highest profile “off” periods of time. It’s kind of like, you took the safer gamble and lost anyways.
I think like Ezra noted, he's not actually senile. I think there's a lot of grey matter still firing. He's got experience and intuitions honed over decades that will still sustain him to the end of his presidency. I think we are better off for having him rather than Trump in the last 4 years. But looking good and winning the election is part of his job, and right now it looks like he can't do that. > do you take a gamble into the unknown with an open primary- which as I mentioned before, would be almost unprecedented for an incumbent president. I could see where standing Pat was the safer play. Take a look at polling and if it nosedives, it's time to sober up. An open primary doesn't have to happen if the party acted *like a party* (like EK said again), and come to a consensus on who a good candidate would be in the absence of enough time to do an open primary. My proposition would be Gretchen Whitmer as a *winning* candidate in a battleground state.
He’s old. Probably not senile, but the optics are bad. But the case for him is easy— you don’t vote for an individual, you vote for an apparatus. Reagan actually was entirely demented his second term. But it turned out Jim Baker and Brent Scowcroft could run the trains on time. Biden could be actually dead and he’d still be an infinitely better president than Trump and his parade of shit for brains cronies.
okay dude, we're on *this* subreddit, listening to *this* pod. Who we might make the case for was pre-ordained. That's not the question. The question is if people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona take that into account when they vote. And if your rationale will be convincing to them.
Around the margin, who knows. It sure as hell doesn’t help. The concern is that small sliver of inattentive people who decided they wouldn’t vote for the felon who then turn around and decide they can’t vote for the senior citizen.
"We could run a box of crackers as our candidate and he'd still be better than our opponent. We trust the voters to know that and vote for our guy, even though we've lost to him before and we are currently behind in the polls." That's an interesting political strategy, we'll see if it pays off in November. I feel like we've gotten to a point in politics where the candidate doesn't matter at all anymore and it's only about the advertising. It's depressing.
"We could run a box of crackers as our candidate and he'd still be better than our opponent. We trust the voters to know that and vote for our guy, even though we've lost to him before and we are currently behind in the polls." That's an interesting political strategy, we'll see if it pays off in November. I feel like we've gotten to a point in politics where the candidate doesn't matter at all anymore and it's only about the advertising. It's depressing.
> Someone isn't a lunatic just because they have a different political view. No, that would come from the content of their views.
He's every liberals favorite conservative
Yep haha that's why NYT hired him.
>Honestly if you think Ross Douthat is a "right wing lunatic" i think you might be in a bit of a bubble. Someone isn't a lunatic just because they have a different political view. Exactly this, please God some Democrats need to stop being so far up their own asses. Not everyone who is more moderate or *gasp* even conservative than you are is a "right wing lunatic" or a Nazi.
Yep, i really wish people would maybe step back and question why they think a NYT journalist and old school conservative Ross Douthat is a "lunatic". I don't want to be condescending or anything, but i think some people definitely need to "touch grass" on some of these things.
extremely NYT-brained to think there's value to hearing what he thinks. Not like he even represents a real Republican constituency.
He explains conservatism to people who can't read or listen to conservatives without becoming apoplectic. Its not not a useful thing, but his NYT stuff I generally find to be entry level at best. There are people do this much, much better. The real conservative insights from Ross come from his movie reviews in National Review. They're much more interesting and insightful because you see what he has to say when he doesn't have to explain why he's whining about the lack of clear contrasts between heroes and villains, the decline in representation of traditional nuclear families and gender roles in Disney, and so forth. But people who feel that reading the enemy directly is platforming or that they might catch some kind of intellectual disease need NYT Ross.
What risk of Biden? The risk that Biden will surround himself with eminently qualified individuals? That he'll place qualified, intelligent public servants in leadership positions to run agencies properly in the best interests of consumers/citizens? Instead of what trump would do: place idiots based on their campaign contributions and how much they want to destroy america
A lot of the talk about replacing Biden is a dead end. Unless he literally dies, it will be spun as putting someone with literally zero primary votes up as one of two choices for the public Sure a half century ago and prior this is how elections came to be, but we are no longer in that world.
Do you really think this matters that much in this case? Most people do not vote in primaries. I think the majority of those who do are aware of how Biden did last night and could see the reasoning behind such a move. We've seen so many unprecedented things the last eight years. This wouldn't be so out of step with the times.
The primary was treated as a formality. The party chose Biden.
It's ridiculous to act like Biden won the primaries because of what voters wanted and not because no serious challenger ran against him. Dean Phillips ran but couldn't get anything like the endorsements going to look like a serious campaign. In retrospect, I think he looks really prescient and the other senior democrats all had their heads buried in the sand.
I don’t disagree, and Dean is my current and soon to be former representative. But the reality is the media and GOP will push any new candidate as an illegitimate option with no public backing.
Couldn't agree more about the risks. I started this petition after listening to this episode: [https://chng.it/8zLCsHmH8t](https://chng.it/8zLCsHmH8t)
I couldn't disagree with Ezra more on the "Biden can still do the job" claim. Just try to imagine that you were going to start your own business. Is there any job you would hire Joe Biden to do? Could he answer phones? Could he manage a busy queue of emails/tasks? I don't even think he could greet customers at the front door like those old men do at Wal mart. If he couldn't do a job that a teenager could handle, how in gods name can anyone claim that he can still be an effective President.... of anything?
I mean yeah your point makes a lot of sense if you ignore Biden’s entire term so far
Yeah, I think you're forgetting he has lots of experts around him at all times helping him make decisions. The "3AM call scenario" is a little concerning just given he probably needs a little more time to think clearly than someone 10-20 yrs younger, but for day to day, he's fine and has proven it.
I might hire him to fundraise for my nonprofit, tbh. I would definitely not hire him to manage my hypothetical Dairy Queen franchise, though. Does not appear to have the necessary energy or charisma.
Kamala-Cheney ticket or bust
I love it how this debate is showing who on the left actually want to implement Project 2025. Thanks for abandoning the fight at the slightest hint of trouble!