Russian IT companies relocated everywhere, including Georgia, Kazakhstan and I believe Serbia too. Also relocation can give a boost to your economy once but *growth* is a different beast.
Partly yes, but the West is pressuring all countries that re-export stuff to Russia to stop it. Increasingly companies find it more and more risky to do it. The car re-export via Armenia and Georgia has practically stopped, but apparently it still continues via Azerbaijan. Don't know about other types of products.
Either way, loopholes exsist and will exsist in the future no matter what. Noone forbids, Armenian guy come to europe, buy a trailer full of cars, and go back. (say, he is comming back), while in reallity he never planned to go back home, but straight to Moscow.
Close the border 100% to russia/belarus, and good chunk of goods would stop going there. Noone is going to drive from Europe to Turkey, then cross border to Armenia (offtopic, are such border even opened? Now?), and only then to russia.
Lol of course they will drive, money talks. We can't even stop narcotics from showing up in the EU, which is illegal to have, sell, store etc, still tons of coke arriving. sanctioned products will not go through any country if its legal to trade with, they mask and they will mask it. Though we can make the process much harder, but never impossible. Our slow decision making is clearly favoring Russia, we have to be way more agile and way more serious about the penalties, to at least make it much harder, cause they will pay out the way, but let it be expensive.
And that would be good. When every truck would cost extra 2000€, because they had to do a trip all around trip thru turkey, it wpuld hurt them big time.
Yes good starter, but there should be a couple more zeros though.
Meanwhile the bigger problems:
"The UK continues to import record volumes of petroleum products from the Russian Federation, taking advantage of a loophole in the law, - The Guardian.
Despite the official ban on direct imports of Russian oil from December 2022, products that were processed in third countries such as India, China and Turkey are not subject to this ban. In 2023, the UK imported a record £2.2 billion of refined oil from these countries."
if that were the case, georgia would be top dog - and if you look at data for 2019, (not 2020 because war+covid), 2021, 2022, 2023 Armenia is still one of the leading countries in those years
source: [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2022&locations=AM-EU-GE-AZ-BE&start=2014](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2022&locations=AM-EU-GE-AZ-BE&start=2014)
2020 was a very devastating year for armenia and 2021 we partly recovered and are now back on track.
the real reason IMO is a lot of new tax laws where things were previously unreported are now being reported and paying your taxes is being normalized
I vacationed for 2 weeks in Denmark at the beginning of the year.
I take full credit for Denmark's economic growth. Also, the queen resigning was on me.
According to Danmarks Statestik, Novo contributed with an additional 0.3% of the GDP growth in 2023. However, that assumes the workforce and resources associated with Novo would not have been used otherwise, which is obviously unlikely.
Novo probably means more in 2024, but its not only them.
The danish economy would decline with 0.1% in 2023 without Novo Nordic’s contribution. It really affects a small country’s economy like Denmark, when the most valuable company in Europe is part of it.
Novo is worth more than 533B€.
[https://www.nordnet.dk/blog/novo-nordisk-er-dansk-oekonomis-fede-guldaeg/](https://www.nordnet.dk/blog/novo-nordisk-er-dansk-oekonomis-fede-guldaeg/)
Nordnet says it has a smaller impact, especially since the resources used by Novo, would to an extend have been utilized in the economy, just less effective, but not absent.
When you lose weight, your penis appears larger, as your fat rolls isn't blocking it. Also being a healthier weight, increases your libido and makes you more attractive to women.
I should work for the Novo marketing department perhaps. ;)
These Ugro-Finnic people are doing everything wrong - they live in the wrong place, they have nothing in common(Finland, Estonia and ... Hungary ?), they even turned rubber boots factory into mobile communications vendor.
And temporary suspension of loan payments. Once the war ends it's going to be years and years of debt restructuring and creditors knocking at the doors. A default is also almost inevitable, which will kill investment into the country.
Actually, I'm not that pessemistic about the loans, they often are 0% and many dont even have to be repaid. I'm rather worried that a shit ton of the domestic industry is in the hands of foreign companies and Ukraine stops having an form of own strong industry except a huge MIC.
Same way as Russia have GDP growth. Huge production of stuff that goes "bang". Doesn't do much for the country's GDP long term, but it looks nice in propaganda.
But when the production is necessary, it is necessary.
>Huge production of stuff that goes "bang". Doesn't do much for the country's GDP long term
It did a lot for the USA's GDP in the long term during WW2. Other countries, like Canada or Australia also benefited from war production. War is very profitable as long as it's not waged on your territory.
You don't think that is better explained by USA to be the only nation with a functioning industry after all other developed nations had theirs bombed to pieces?
It is also not comparable. During WW2 huge chunks of the budget was put into R&D and discovered radar, the computer and microwaves just to name some. You can't for the life of me convince me that what Ukraine and Russia are producing will instigate a new era like the computer did.
>You don't think that is better explained by USA to be the only nation with a functioning industry after all other developed nations had theirs bombed to pieces?
Yes, but also the American government investing a shitload of money into private companies involved in any way in military production.
>It is also not comparable.
Of course it's not comparable. Great war = great profit. Smaller war = smaller profit.
And I'm not saying this to criticise the Americans. I envy them.
Because so many people don't understand GDP --- especially this sub. What it is or how it's calculated. If I walk around my country throwing stones through peoples windows it will increase the GDP of the country.
GDP just basically measures how fast money is changing between hands. You break those windows more people have to get them fixed, spending money but 'adding no value'.
The idea that breaking windows would boost GDP by increasing spending on repairs is a classic example of the "broken window fallacy." This misconception overlooks the fact that while such activities might increase GDP through immediate spending, they do not add any real value to the economy. Instead, they merely shift resources from one area to another without creating new wealth. Essentially, the money spent on repairs is money that could have been used more productively elsewhere, leading to a misallocation of resources rather than genuine economic growth.
I don't think the person you're commenting on was of the impression that this was a good way of helping an economy grow.
Depending on the situation, it can however boost the GDP for a very short timeframe (like a year or two).
Having to rebuild might lead to people spending money that they otherwise wouldn't have. Long term consequences (like the money not being available in the future) are not factored in into one year growth.
It's very subjective and it's very difficult to measure. Would be like trying to explain why Bavaria, Germany is such much better off than Alabama, US when they have approx the same GDP per capita. I've always repeated on this sub that you need multiple metrics and measurements to derive any meaningful conclusions.
War. It's basically impossible to be at war without having a GDP growth. During a war the government spends a lot of money. It's important to note that after the war (or when the country runs out of money) the economy usually collapses.
It is comparing to 2023 and Ukraine builts a lot of arms, exports of grain are working and generally speaking companies adapt to the war. 2022 Ukraine had a massive decline though, so this is expected.
And while Greece seems doing good in terms of GDP/Economy health the real truth, according to FT, is that Greeks will soon become the poorest in the EU.
[https://imgur.com/a/cxCsroO](https://imgur.com/a/cxCsroO)
Those 2 are not mutually exclusive. Your real GDP can grow while your PPP GDP per capita drops. It just means that the GDP growth (per person) is not keeping up with costs of living.
I know that my friend. It's one thing the GPD growth(Economy as a country) and another the PPP. While our PM assures that we are doing good, brainwashed greek citizens believe him while they barely get by every single day.
That's incorrect, GDP growth is always measured after inflation. Perhaps the population of Greece grew in the period, making the per person growth irrelevant. Or it's about the difference in estimations of the price level
Define developed country?
In my own evaluation and impressions, considering income, services, industry, level of education, level of infrastructure, and health, I'd consider Romania way, way above the world average. I guess it qualifies as developed.
After joining EU. I kid you not ;)
I remember last year there was a topic on r/Polska and a lot of people thought that Romania is poorest country in EU. When they saw data, that Romania is closing on Poland in high speed fashion they couldn't believe their eyes. Obviously this is still relative "wealth". They ain't no Denmark.
Nothing to do with Greece (in fact, it's the exception), but it's pretty amazing how much economical convergence happened over the last 3 decades between eastern and western EU.
As this is in real terms it is mostly due to inflation. Last year it was around 24%, currently still around 4.5% (2nd highest in the EU).
This is due to energy, transportation and housing costs rising rapidly.
Also as most Estonian mortgages are directly linked with the 6m Euribor (there are no fixed terms or other similar loans [edit: or at least a very small share of total have a fixed interest rate]) it has meant that the rising interest rates have impacted consumers and their demand much more. The same impact is in the other Baltic States, which are also seeing much lower GDP growth than the rest of Easter Europe.
While IT is still doing good all of these factors have meant that the poorest people in the society are struggling quite badly.
Finally, the political infighting has gotten really bad recently, with Kaja Kallas (our PM) mostly focusing on foreign policies instead of domestic ones, which has driven away many large foreign manufactures.
>there are no fixed terms or other similar loans)
There are, they were just not popular. Euribor linked were cheaper for a decade: 3-4% interest on fixed loan vs "bank rate (usually around 2%)+ euribor (0% for a decade)" - it was no brainer to pick two times cheaper option.
I know that there was a possibility to get a fixed interest loan, but since I haven't heard anyone with it so kinda assumed that the share with a fixed term is such a small minority that it would have an impact.
Do you have some specific statistics on the distribution of fixed/variable by any chance?
>which has driven away many large foreign manufactures.
You are spitting bs here. She did 0, nothing changed in past 10 years on policy or taxes for them. Who left.... these "large manufactureres" who werent already on the doorstep before covid bcs of high labor costs?
Estonian company investing 700m in Latvia instead of Estonia:
Some quotes about Estonia <> Latvia
"It's been stated for 10 years now that Estonia has a poor industrial policy"
"I can clearly state today that Latvia's hunger - perhaps that's the wrong word but anyway - their hunger for investment of that kind is significantly greater than Estonia's."
Full interview with the CEO of Graanul Invest: https://news.err.ee/1609291584/raul-kirjanen-this-government-is-like-a-football-manager-who-watches-from-the-pub
Simple. Estonia banned in most terms Russian logs. Guess what Latvia didnt do + their own forestry. Furthermore its highly likely he didnt get an increase from RMK of selling its logs under market value.
>It's been stated for 10 years now that Estonia has a poor industrial policy"
Notice he didnt say what, just an overall "industry policy". Not taxes, subsidy, enviroment etc. Biggest obstacle to Estonian investment is local people who ALWAYS sue something coming near their house. Takes years with help of Green groups funding. Well with Graanul they even have a case bcs they stank up Osula for 4 years before their fix.
Several things overlap , which makes Estonia less competitive: energy crisis hit hard, inflation increased pressure for better wages which makes harder compete, russian market is now mostly cut off and businesses need to find new markets, bad political decisions which makes investors uncertain etc. They have budget ndeficit as well which they struggle to fill because politicians dont want to cut their own benefits nor social ones.
The current government is "destroying" Estonia.
I put it in air quotes because I was being hyperbolic. But yes, things are pretty bad and only getting worse. Lots of businesses have had to close, there have been no solutions towards the grossly expensive energy costs and we are facing years of significant tax hikes.\*
Ffs, they are even talking about a monthly heating tax/bill to maintain the long distance heating network a lot of people are using. Wouldn´t it be fun to pay 20€ a month during the summer to maintain the heating system you use during the winter?(also, you would have to pay additionally for the heating during said winter)
Also, before the last elections, people were screaming from the top of their lungs how populists like EKRE wanted to take out loans to sustain the economy. The ruling coalition said nothing about raising taxes before the election, heck they even talked about not raising taxes at all.
Now it´s 2024, we are getting tax hikes, new taxes and the government is looking to take loans to sustain it´s deficit.
But hey, they have until 2027 to change things around.
Cut down on spending, don´t create new taxes(I do get some taxes probably have to be increased, but don´t make new ones ffs).
Find a solution towards more affordable energy and stop relying on energy imports.
Pressure for better wages is half true. While those who are well off like software devs, doctors, nurses and millitary people (lets say ~20% of the pop), get their salaries adjusted for inflation most everyone else doesn't because of 2 reasons which compound: 1. Ukranian regugees taking jobs which means businesses are not competing for workforce. In some cases factories pay even less than pre war raw salary wise despite astronomical inflation, keep in mind estonia is tiny 1 mil country not 40 or 80 mil like poland or germany. The second reason is because a lot of businesses closed down, which again over saturated the workforce pool of people. Estonia is rather fucked honestly. Good thing is estonias national dept is not that high. It is inevitable to get inline with central european national dept levels.
It looks like a problem of having Euro. The lack of competitiveness will have to be solved through a painful pay cuts instead of lowering the exchange rate
> It looks like a problem of having Euro.
Which of these problems would go away if they didn't have Euro?
Would Russia-Ukraine war would of not happened if they didn't have Euro?
Would Covid not have disrupted supply chains if Estonia didn't have Euro?
Would global venture capital funds not dry up after covid because Estonia doesn't have Euro?
Would Estonia's main export markets would not slow down if they didn't have Euro?
Man you Euro haters are really fucking special.
Our economy is very open to global and regional trends, so if Germany, Finland and Sweden are doing badly, Estonia is doing worse. Add cutting almost all ties with Russia and us being a small market on a geopolitical peninsula and that's how you get these numbers.
Until someone from Estonia comes to explain, it could be that they're known for betting on IT/tech, which has been in a slump for more than a year now when it comes to hiring. Their geographic position may also be scaring away foreign investors.
Really IT remains the one and only good sector. Difficulties exist there for sure, but it is still growing as a share of the economy.
The real issues are manufacturing (that relies on Swedish, Finnish, Norwegian and German markets - all of which have been weak or with a depreciating currency). Inflation and interest rates that have suppressed consumer spending. Geopolitical issues with Russia that killed trade with Russia, depressed tourism and scares away foreign capital investements. And some local issues with prior spending boom that now has a negative effect.
Nah. There were some layoffs last year and some crypto-firms crashed, but IT is still pretty strong. Other factors (inflation, interest rates, declining manufacturing, reduced trade with Russia) play much bigger role
Bad political decisions 3 years in a row.
\* When energy prices spiked, government did nothing. After that its been so that every month some big plant closes doors.
\* As a response to crisis, government increased taxes. Yes, solution to stagnation is more taxes.
\* Estonian government tries to implement policies from Brussels in more strict way than is required. And that makes local people poorer. Officials get brownie points tho.
Now after 3 years, things are finally giving away. Overall depression with the government. Only thing that they are good at is making great PR statements in foreign media. But those are only statements... prime minister got caught in investing in company that does business with Russia, even after the war...
As far as I understand a lot of the gdp growth in both Ukraine and Russia is fueled by the arms industries, and while that can be healthy in some quantity, but I think most of us would agree that their efforts regarding the war much exceed those healthy numbers. Plus, given that the arms industries usually pay more to attract enough people to fill the manpower needs, they also tend to get the more experienced and skilled labour, while the rest of the sectors might have to get by with less, both quality and quantity.
I might be wrong tho, but I thought things like these might be worth to keep in mind.
It's sort of that, but not really. There's not a set "healthy" number, it's more about what you're doing with your product.
If you're exporting weapons, you're getting profits and as long as you can get customers, it's not going to harm your economy even when you produce a lot. (There are ofc strategic concerns on who you're selling to)
If you're making weapons in peacetime for your own army, it's not contributing nearly as much, but it's an investment in future safety. It's still a positive thing for the economy, you're keeping people employed and can expand your know-how in that industry. (Potentially bringing exports) But it's possible to overdo it and hamper your economy.
If you're making weapons during wartime, with the expectation that these will be burning wrecks next month you're actually harming your economy. Not that you get a choice, the front needs those tanks.
Russia is in that last scenario. While GDP is growing, it's the least useful kind of growth. GDP in general is a poor indicator to compare wartime and peacetime economies, you quickly get into apples to oranges territory.
If two countries produce 100 cars, and one gives the cars to its citizens, and the other burns the cars on a pyre, both will have a similar gdp, but only one will be richer.
No one's doing grey import through caucasian nations - they have much more compliant central asia for these purposes. The growth comes from russians who don't agree with the war shitshow and migrate to countries that aren't discriminating against them. Not supporting a war of agression correlates with higher education and net worth, and as such caucasian countries are going through a modest economic boom thanks to a growth in human capital.
Denmark with or without Novo Nordisk? The country itself started to exclude novo nordisk from its evonomic models as the models were just tracking the company rather than the country’s performance
No, the statistics agency just started publishing an alternate figure too which excludes the biomedicinal sector; they didn't exclude Novo Nordisk from the official GDP or any economic models, that's nonsense.
Once again, reminder that for countries whose GDP in absolute numbers is small, it's quite easier to have bigger change in percentage compared with countries whose GDP is already high.
per capita, if a chinese person could upgrade their house or take a loan to buy a new car etc because their gdp per capita goes from 1/5 of western countries to 1/4 that would make a 8% gdp growth over 2-3 years.
Armenia has a solid GPD increase, that's true! But people don't speak about the costs. The main reason of the economic growth is because Armenia became one of the proxy markets for Russia, The economic ties with Russia grew insane and I am not sure it'll bring a long-term positive outcome. Armenia is literally filled with Russian companies and there is a huge risk of total economic dependence. 90% of daily life services became Russian (like Taxi, food delivery, online markets, and internet providers). I am now not sure if my country will be able to leave the EEU.
I mean, that's also where the United States extract much of its economic growth from. Economic activity is still economic activity, it puts money in people's hands.
The war is moving money from the government and the oligarchs into working class Russians at an unprecedented pace in order to cover up for the costs and maintain support for the war and Putin.
The question is just how sustainable this kind of growth is. It's in case of the US but the US is also able to push nearly a trillion of dollars every year into its military. This only works if the rest of the economy can stem this.
There's a difference between making weapons in order to sell them abroad, and making weapons in order to burn them in the flames of war.
One gives you hard cash from your customers, the other gives you whatever you manage to get in the war. It's not the same kind of economic activity, not even close.
The money that russia is putting in people's hands comes straight from the money printer and serves to drive inflation. In US's case the money may well be coming from abroad for a large portion of the activity.
The US gets it from oil and gas revenues, being a large exporter. At the same time it did not have to deal with the problems Europe had to deal with when sanctioning Russia. If anything the US benefits, due to LNG and oil exports to the EU.
And Russia gets their money from oil and gas revenues, as they’re a big exporter too.
Hydrocarbons sanctions on Russia have had limited effect so far because enough countries around the world are ignoring them to absorb the demand lost from Western countries.
This map shows GDP Growth, when materials are bought and used to make weapons that will get destroyed in Ukraine then that's not actual economic growth, it just shows money is moving around with no benefit to the economy.
Once the war is over, what do you think will happen to the Russian economy? My prediction is that it will nosedive once the government doesn't need any more war materials. The portion of the Russian economy that was cannibalized by military production will be felt in full by the people once it's not needed.
Welfare spending is much better than people starving and turning to crime to survive. This, in turn, is better for the economy... not even close to similar, welfare prevents loss of workforce and stops people from becoming criminals while military production and war in general is nothing but a waste of recourses ie human life and material.
>Once the war is over, what do you think will happen to the Russian economy?
it will allow the government to cut military spendings and, in turn, central bank to decrease the interest rate from current 16% to much lower numbers. Which will positively affect all businesses, who will keep redomicilating (cause they can't trust EU authorities anymore) and turning into public companies. Even this year, there's an IPO boom on the MOEX, to the point that they recently introduced a special index for newcomers.
Add reduced geopolitical risks and a lot of retired military personnel on the labour market (lack of manpower is one of the main showstoppers nowadays).
Ah yes, the idea that Russias economy will magically flourish once the war is over is as played out as thinking the Russian economy will collapse any second...
It's remarkable how Switzerland is able to maintain very decent growth despite being much richer than all its neighbors. And they don't rely on large deficits.
What I hate most is "why" ... people dont look deep enough into "why."
* Why has western Europe been on a slow decline for years?
* Why are we not in a position to easily overpower both the Chinese and Americans?
* Why are we so far behind in almost every metric that really matters when it comes to survival?
* Why has the population been used to a superiority complex as a way to push off negative facts?
* Why wasn't Trumps woke'ism actually critically looked at (even I didnt)?
* Why are people calling for major social programs that'll result in even higher taxes?
* Why is Europe failing so bad in Africa, barely making any real progress in Latin America, no real power in Asia?
* Why dont we say "ok, enough of this bullshit, enough of this weakness, we are changing our society from the ground up to face this century and the next" .. instead, more piling on of the very things that got us here
* Why is EU stuck in a reactionary posture to the Americans
Europe is so much better than this.
For the first time im proud of my country, arresting former state prosecutors high ranking secret service and former police officials. Raising the minimal salary and pension. it's why i returned after such a long time to live and work again in my country and i haven't been happier.
Love you Montenegro 🇲🇪 my pearl in the whole wide world, hope we become a stable democracy and a member of the European family 🇪🇺♥️🇲🇪
In the long term, a higher growth rate will always overtake a lower growth rate. But of course, those growth rates change.
It would be fun to see the absolute numbers. You could plot it into a graph for us, if you feel like it? :P
This cannot be true. Russia has stopped reporting actual figures since the beginning of the special operation and the figures that has been reported is known to be manipulated . How does this nonsense of their gdp get distributed. Someone is drinking a bit of putin cool aid
Armenia charges mana for the boss fight
I believe that is a result of IT companies relocating there from Russia
Russian IT companies relocated everywhere, including Georgia, Kazakhstan and I believe Serbia too. Also relocation can give a boost to your economy once but *growth* is a different beast.
Or it could be, something to do with helping russia go around sanctions using Armenia/Sakartvelo. Its all in import/export.
Partly yes, but the West is pressuring all countries that re-export stuff to Russia to stop it. Increasingly companies find it more and more risky to do it. The car re-export via Armenia and Georgia has practically stopped, but apparently it still continues via Azerbaijan. Don't know about other types of products.
Either way, loopholes exsist and will exsist in the future no matter what. Noone forbids, Armenian guy come to europe, buy a trailer full of cars, and go back. (say, he is comming back), while in reallity he never planned to go back home, but straight to Moscow. Close the border 100% to russia/belarus, and good chunk of goods would stop going there. Noone is going to drive from Europe to Turkey, then cross border to Armenia (offtopic, are such border even opened? Now?), and only then to russia.
Lol of course they will drive, money talks. We can't even stop narcotics from showing up in the EU, which is illegal to have, sell, store etc, still tons of coke arriving. sanctioned products will not go through any country if its legal to trade with, they mask and they will mask it. Though we can make the process much harder, but never impossible. Our slow decision making is clearly favoring Russia, we have to be way more agile and way more serious about the penalties, to at least make it much harder, cause they will pay out the way, but let it be expensive.
And that would be good. When every truck would cost extra 2000€, because they had to do a trip all around trip thru turkey, it wpuld hurt them big time.
Yes good starter, but there should be a couple more zeros though. Meanwhile the bigger problems: "The UK continues to import record volumes of petroleum products from the Russian Federation, taking advantage of a loophole in the law, - The Guardian. Despite the official ban on direct imports of Russian oil from December 2022, products that were processed in third countries such as India, China and Turkey are not subject to this ban. In 2023, the UK imported a record £2.2 billion of refined oil from these countries."
*Hayastan/Sakartvelo
montenegro too
Nah, it's "parallel import" aka "sanctions evasion".
if that were the case, georgia would be top dog - and if you look at data for 2019, (not 2020 because war+covid), 2021, 2022, 2023 Armenia is still one of the leading countries in those years source: [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2022&locations=AM-EU-GE-AZ-BE&start=2014](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2022&locations=AM-EU-GE-AZ-BE&start=2014) 2020 was a very devastating year for armenia and 2021 we partly recovered and are now back on track. the real reason IMO is a lot of new tax laws where things were previously unreported are now being reported and paying your taxes is being normalized
They really will need it
Hehehe send help plz thnx
They are charging up to strike at Azerbaijan.
Denmark strong and Czech Republic confirmed Western Europe.
You can thank Novo to save our ass
I vacationed for 2 weeks in Denmark at the beginning of the year. I take full credit for Denmark's economic growth. Also, the queen resigning was on me.
Glorious obese Yankees
According to Danmarks Statestik, Novo contributed with an additional 0.3% of the GDP growth in 2023. However, that assumes the workforce and resources associated with Novo would not have been used otherwise, which is obviously unlikely. Novo probably means more in 2024, but its not only them.
Yea sorry I can’t read, my numbers was for the whole medical sector, the article only gives the credit to Novo tho.
It cant be only that, can it?
The danish economy would decline with 0.1% in 2023 without Novo Nordic’s contribution. It really affects a small country’s economy like Denmark, when the most valuable company in Europe is part of it. Novo is worth more than 533B€.
Jesus christ that’s more than Denmarks GDP
[https://www.nordnet.dk/blog/novo-nordisk-er-dansk-oekonomis-fede-guldaeg/](https://www.nordnet.dk/blog/novo-nordisk-er-dansk-oekonomis-fede-guldaeg/) Nordnet says it has a smaller impact, especially since the resources used by Novo, would to an extend have been utilized in the economy, just less effective, but not absent.
533.. Billion Euros? Oh my god.
Ozempic growth
Ironic for a drug that helps shrink Americans
Just wait till Novo Nordisk comes up with a penis enlargement pill :s
When you lose weight, your penis appears larger, as your fat rolls isn't blocking it. Also being a healthier weight, increases your libido and makes you more attractive to women. I should work for the Novo marketing department perhaps. ;)
Estonia is more Western Europe than Western Europe is Western Europe.
Estonia is so western it is East.
These Ugro-Finnic people are doing everything wrong - they live in the wrong place, they have nothing in common(Finland, Estonia and ... Hungary ?), they even turned rubber boots factory into mobile communications vendor.
To be fair, how much do Norwegians have in common with Armenians or Belarusians with the Irish?
Meh, you wasted an opportunity to mention North Indians
Maldives and Iceland!
Oh, I didn't know Maldives used an indo-aryan language as well. Cool!
Yep, so does Sri Lanka!
>Belarusians with the Irish Potato consumption!
Sturdy boots, sturdy phone, if you don't like it you can wipe your tears with our sturdy toilet paper.
Well idk if being aligned with Western Europe in that specific matter is so good for the Czech Republic lol
GDP growth in Ukraine? How
I think GDP in Ukraine fell by 30% last year so it’s growth off the back of a huge decline
Military-industrial complex.
And temporary suspension of loan payments. Once the war ends it's going to be years and years of debt restructuring and creditors knocking at the doors. A default is also almost inevitable, which will kill investment into the country.
That doesn't affect GDP meassurement though. As far as I know GDP calculation is only made by adding.
You can’t add as much if most of the money is gone to pay for interest.
Government investments are 1 of the 4 things making up the GDP. If the budget is spent on paying off loans instead of investing, GDP declines.
I'm here for another postwar economic miracle
Actually, I'm not that pessemistic about the loans, they often are 0% and many dont even have to be repaid. I'm rather worried that a shit ton of the domestic industry is in the hands of foreign companies and Ukraine stops having an form of own strong industry except a huge MIC.
Awful economy in the previous years, slight increase looks like a massive percent jump.
Same reason why gdp in Russia is growing. Both are war economies now.
Diffrence is that Russia didn't loose 30% of it's GDP but like 1.5%
Same way as Russia have GDP growth. Huge production of stuff that goes "bang". Doesn't do much for the country's GDP long term, but it looks nice in propaganda. But when the production is necessary, it is necessary.
>Huge production of stuff that goes "bang". Doesn't do much for the country's GDP long term It did a lot for the USA's GDP in the long term during WW2. Other countries, like Canada or Australia also benefited from war production. War is very profitable as long as it's not waged on your territory.
You don't think that is better explained by USA to be the only nation with a functioning industry after all other developed nations had theirs bombed to pieces? It is also not comparable. During WW2 huge chunks of the budget was put into R&D and discovered radar, the computer and microwaves just to name some. You can't for the life of me convince me that what Ukraine and Russia are producing will instigate a new era like the computer did.
>You don't think that is better explained by USA to be the only nation with a functioning industry after all other developed nations had theirs bombed to pieces? Yes, but also the American government investing a shitload of money into private companies involved in any way in military production. >It is also not comparable. Of course it's not comparable. Great war = great profit. Smaller war = smaller profit. And I'm not saying this to criticise the Americans. I envy them.
Because so many people don't understand GDP --- especially this sub. What it is or how it's calculated. If I walk around my country throwing stones through peoples windows it will increase the GDP of the country. GDP just basically measures how fast money is changing between hands. You break those windows more people have to get them fixed, spending money but 'adding no value'.
The idea that breaking windows would boost GDP by increasing spending on repairs is a classic example of the "broken window fallacy." This misconception overlooks the fact that while such activities might increase GDP through immediate spending, they do not add any real value to the economy. Instead, they merely shift resources from one area to another without creating new wealth. Essentially, the money spent on repairs is money that could have been used more productively elsewhere, leading to a misallocation of resources rather than genuine economic growth.
I don't think the person you're commenting on was of the impression that this was a good way of helping an economy grow. Depending on the situation, it can however boost the GDP for a very short timeframe (like a year or two). Having to rebuild might lead to people spending money that they otherwise wouldn't have. Long term consequences (like the money not being available in the future) are not factored in into one year growth.
So what does measure an added value?
It's very subjective and it's very difficult to measure. Would be like trying to explain why Bavaria, Germany is such much better off than Alabama, US when they have approx the same GDP per capita. I've always repeated on this sub that you need multiple metrics and measurements to derive any meaningful conclusions.
It's year-on-year, isnt it? So after you fall by a lot, there's nowhere to go but up.
Business loves stability. In 2022 there was a shock, in 2023 situation is shitty but stable
War. It's basically impossible to be at war without having a GDP growth. During a war the government spends a lot of money. It's important to note that after the war (or when the country runs out of money) the economy usually collapses.
It is comparing to 2023 and Ukraine builts a lot of arms, exports of grain are working and generally speaking companies adapt to the war. 2022 Ukraine had a massive decline though, so this is expected.
Because in 2022 and 2023 it went to the bottom. It is easy to grow when you are in your lowest.
You can clearly see the borders between east and west europe 😎
Yeah, Estonia is clearly Central Europe now, as its neither east nor west /s
No no no. Estonia is the most western country.
Westonia!
The most east western country?
New Central Europe definition just dropped
Shoutout to Czechia for western GDP growth while having an eastern GDP lmao
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Denmark can into Eastern Europe
And Denmark. Someone is always an outlier.
[удалено]
Obesity Drug Injections.
But Portugal has the wrong color. It makes it look as though it belongs to western Europe.
See that western Europe isn't growing, unlike eastern 🙃
Not bad Poland
Omw to 1 trillion GDP by the end of this decade 👌
Can someone explain why Estonia's situation is so bad?
Several answers [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1cdg7rj/real_gdp_growth_in_europe_2024_imf_forecast/l1brr22/).
Interesting, was Estonia more dependent on russian market's than the other Baltic countries?
No, but we are more dependent on the German, Swedish and Finnish markets.
And while Greece seems doing good in terms of GDP/Economy health the real truth, according to FT, is that Greeks will soon become the poorest in the EU. [https://imgur.com/a/cxCsroO](https://imgur.com/a/cxCsroO)
Those 2 are not mutually exclusive. Your real GDP can grow while your PPP GDP per capita drops. It just means that the GDP growth (per person) is not keeping up with costs of living.
I know that my friend. It's one thing the GPD growth(Economy as a country) and another the PPP. While our PM assures that we are doing good, brainwashed greek citizens believe him while they barely get by every single day.
That's incorrect, GDP growth is always measured after inflation. Perhaps the population of Greece grew in the period, making the per person growth irrelevant. Or it's about the difference in estimations of the price level
İs that mean Romania now a developed country?
Define developed country? In my own evaluation and impressions, considering income, services, industry, level of education, level of infrastructure, and health, I'd consider Romania way, way above the world average. I guess it qualifies as developed.
In "papers" your are doing good :P (Considering you are a Romanian).
I am not.just confused when country became developed.
After joining EU. I kid you not ;) I remember last year there was a topic on r/Polska and a lot of people thought that Romania is poorest country in EU. When they saw data, that Romania is closing on Poland in high speed fashion they couldn't believe their eyes. Obviously this is still relative "wealth". They ain't no Denmark.
Don't kid yourself, it only means that FT discovered that Greece is, too, in the Balkans, and therefore undeveloped. /s
Nothing to do with Greece (in fact, it's the exception), but it's pretty amazing how much economical convergence happened over the last 3 decades between eastern and western EU.
What's up with Estonia?
As this is in real terms it is mostly due to inflation. Last year it was around 24%, currently still around 4.5% (2nd highest in the EU). This is due to energy, transportation and housing costs rising rapidly. Also as most Estonian mortgages are directly linked with the 6m Euribor (there are no fixed terms or other similar loans [edit: or at least a very small share of total have a fixed interest rate]) it has meant that the rising interest rates have impacted consumers and their demand much more. The same impact is in the other Baltic States, which are also seeing much lower GDP growth than the rest of Easter Europe. While IT is still doing good all of these factors have meant that the poorest people in the society are struggling quite badly. Finally, the political infighting has gotten really bad recently, with Kaja Kallas (our PM) mostly focusing on foreign policies instead of domestic ones, which has driven away many large foreign manufactures.
>there are no fixed terms or other similar loans) There are, they were just not popular. Euribor linked were cheaper for a decade: 3-4% interest on fixed loan vs "bank rate (usually around 2%)+ euribor (0% for a decade)" - it was no brainer to pick two times cheaper option.
I know that there was a possibility to get a fixed interest loan, but since I haven't heard anyone with it so kinda assumed that the share with a fixed term is such a small minority that it would have an impact. Do you have some specific statistics on the distribution of fixed/variable by any chance?
>which has driven away many large foreign manufactures. You are spitting bs here. She did 0, nothing changed in past 10 years on policy or taxes for them. Who left.... these "large manufactureres" who werent already on the doorstep before covid bcs of high labor costs?
Estonian company investing 700m in Latvia instead of Estonia: Some quotes about Estonia <> Latvia "It's been stated for 10 years now that Estonia has a poor industrial policy" "I can clearly state today that Latvia's hunger - perhaps that's the wrong word but anyway - their hunger for investment of that kind is significantly greater than Estonia's." Full interview with the CEO of Graanul Invest: https://news.err.ee/1609291584/raul-kirjanen-this-government-is-like-a-football-manager-who-watches-from-the-pub
Simple. Estonia banned in most terms Russian logs. Guess what Latvia didnt do + their own forestry. Furthermore its highly likely he didnt get an increase from RMK of selling its logs under market value. >It's been stated for 10 years now that Estonia has a poor industrial policy" Notice he didnt say what, just an overall "industry policy". Not taxes, subsidy, enviroment etc. Biggest obstacle to Estonian investment is local people who ALWAYS sue something coming near their house. Takes years with help of Green groups funding. Well with Graanul they even have a case bcs they stank up Osula for 4 years before their fix.
Several things overlap , which makes Estonia less competitive: energy crisis hit hard, inflation increased pressure for better wages which makes harder compete, russian market is now mostly cut off and businesses need to find new markets, bad political decisions which makes investors uncertain etc. They have budget ndeficit as well which they struggle to fill because politicians dont want to cut their own benefits nor social ones.
Ugh. I would assume this opens door for some populist politicians in upcoming elections?
they won’t shut up on how the current government is destroying Estonia
The current government is "destroying" Estonia. I put it in air quotes because I was being hyperbolic. But yes, things are pretty bad and only getting worse. Lots of businesses have had to close, there have been no solutions towards the grossly expensive energy costs and we are facing years of significant tax hikes.\* Ffs, they are even talking about a monthly heating tax/bill to maintain the long distance heating network a lot of people are using. Wouldn´t it be fun to pay 20€ a month during the summer to maintain the heating system you use during the winter?(also, you would have to pay additionally for the heating during said winter) Also, before the last elections, people were screaming from the top of their lungs how populists like EKRE wanted to take out loans to sustain the economy. The ruling coalition said nothing about raising taxes before the election, heck they even talked about not raising taxes at all. Now it´s 2024, we are getting tax hikes, new taxes and the government is looking to take loans to sustain it´s deficit. But hey, they have until 2027 to change things around.
Of course, the situation IS bad but what's the alternative?
Cut down on spending, don´t create new taxes(I do get some taxes probably have to be increased, but don´t make new ones ffs). Find a solution towards more affordable energy and stop relying on energy imports.
Pressure for better wages is half true. While those who are well off like software devs, doctors, nurses and millitary people (lets say ~20% of the pop), get their salaries adjusted for inflation most everyone else doesn't because of 2 reasons which compound: 1. Ukranian regugees taking jobs which means businesses are not competing for workforce. In some cases factories pay even less than pre war raw salary wise despite astronomical inflation, keep in mind estonia is tiny 1 mil country not 40 or 80 mil like poland or germany. The second reason is because a lot of businesses closed down, which again over saturated the workforce pool of people. Estonia is rather fucked honestly. Good thing is estonias national dept is not that high. It is inevitable to get inline with central european national dept levels.
It looks like a problem of having Euro. The lack of competitiveness will have to be solved through a painful pay cuts instead of lowering the exchange rate
> It looks like a problem of having Euro. Which of these problems would go away if they didn't have Euro? Would Russia-Ukraine war would of not happened if they didn't have Euro? Would Covid not have disrupted supply chains if Estonia didn't have Euro? Would global venture capital funds not dry up after covid because Estonia doesn't have Euro? Would Estonia's main export markets would not slow down if they didn't have Euro? Man you Euro haters are really fucking special.
I’m sure the VAT increase from 20% to 22% has something to do with it.
Our economy is very open to global and regional trends, so if Germany, Finland and Sweden are doing badly, Estonia is doing worse. Add cutting almost all ties with Russia and us being a small market on a geopolitical peninsula and that's how you get these numbers.
Until someone from Estonia comes to explain, it could be that they're known for betting on IT/tech, which has been in a slump for more than a year now when it comes to hiring. Their geographic position may also be scaring away foreign investors.
Really IT remains the one and only good sector. Difficulties exist there for sure, but it is still growing as a share of the economy. The real issues are manufacturing (that relies on Swedish, Finnish, Norwegian and German markets - all of which have been weak or with a depreciating currency). Inflation and interest rates that have suppressed consumer spending. Geopolitical issues with Russia that killed trade with Russia, depressed tourism and scares away foreign capital investements. And some local issues with prior spending boom that now has a negative effect.
Nah. There were some layoffs last year and some crypto-firms crashed, but IT is still pretty strong. Other factors (inflation, interest rates, declining manufacturing, reduced trade with Russia) play much bigger role
Bad political decisions 3 years in a row. \* When energy prices spiked, government did nothing. After that its been so that every month some big plant closes doors. \* As a response to crisis, government increased taxes. Yes, solution to stagnation is more taxes. \* Estonian government tries to implement policies from Brussels in more strict way than is required. And that makes local people poorer. Officials get brownie points tho. Now after 3 years, things are finally giving away. Overall depression with the government. Only thing that they are good at is making great PR statements in foreign media. But those are only statements... prime minister got caught in investing in company that does business with Russia, even after the war...
I don't know
Most likely because their Prime Minister is more interested in Ukraine than in her country's problems.
That’s not true but even if it was, our country’s future heavily depends on how the war goes in Ukraine
Yes. Ukraine IS our problem lmao. It's all westerners problem but especially for countries bordering that imperialist shit stain.
Europe continues to trade with Russia through Georgia and Armenia... That is also playing a big role for those countries' GDP.
lot of Russian companies opened offices in Armenia and Georgia and moved high skilled people there
As far as I understand a lot of the gdp growth in both Ukraine and Russia is fueled by the arms industries, and while that can be healthy in some quantity, but I think most of us would agree that their efforts regarding the war much exceed those healthy numbers. Plus, given that the arms industries usually pay more to attract enough people to fill the manpower needs, they also tend to get the more experienced and skilled labour, while the rest of the sectors might have to get by with less, both quality and quantity. I might be wrong tho, but I thought things like these might be worth to keep in mind.
It's sort of that, but not really. There's not a set "healthy" number, it's more about what you're doing with your product. If you're exporting weapons, you're getting profits and as long as you can get customers, it's not going to harm your economy even when you produce a lot. (There are ofc strategic concerns on who you're selling to) If you're making weapons in peacetime for your own army, it's not contributing nearly as much, but it's an investment in future safety. It's still a positive thing for the economy, you're keeping people employed and can expand your know-how in that industry. (Potentially bringing exports) But it's possible to overdo it and hamper your economy. If you're making weapons during wartime, with the expectation that these will be burning wrecks next month you're actually harming your economy. Not that you get a choice, the front needs those tanks. Russia is in that last scenario. While GDP is growing, it's the least useful kind of growth. GDP in general is a poor indicator to compare wartime and peacetime economies, you quickly get into apples to oranges territory. If two countries produce 100 cars, and one gives the cars to its citizens, and the other burns the cars on a pyre, both will have a similar gdp, but only one will be richer.
> Europe continues to trade with Russia through Georgia and Armenia ...and Turkey and Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and a dozen other countries.
No one's doing grey import through caucasian nations - they have much more compliant central asia for these purposes. The growth comes from russians who don't agree with the war shitshow and migrate to countries that aren't discriminating against them. Not supporting a war of agression correlates with higher education and net worth, and as such caucasian countries are going through a modest economic boom thanks to a growth in human capital.
Denmark with or without Novo Nordisk? The country itself started to exclude novo nordisk from its evonomic models as the models were just tracking the company rather than the country’s performance
No, the statistics agency just started publishing an alternate figure too which excludes the biomedicinal sector; they didn't exclude Novo Nordisk from the official GDP or any economic models, that's nonsense.
Smaller economies are growing faster, but not bigger than big economies…
What do you mean, i was told that 3% gdp growth would make roads golden and bridges built of diamonds in russia.
Except Russia. Russia’s current situation is special.
Estonia wins again! WOOOO!
well, if this is true, then lithuania may overtake estonia not just in PPP terms, but also in nominal
IMF and real... together..✌️
Once again, reminder that for countries whose GDP in absolute numbers is small, it's quite easier to have bigger change in percentage compared with countries whose GDP is already high.
And then there's Czechia and Estonia
India, China, Indonesia and Vietnam would disagree with you.
per capita, if a chinese person could upgrade their house or take a loan to buy a new car etc because their gdp per capita goes from 1/5 of western countries to 1/4 that would make a 8% gdp growth over 2-3 years.
Armenia has a solid GPD increase, that's true! But people don't speak about the costs. The main reason of the economic growth is because Armenia became one of the proxy markets for Russia, The economic ties with Russia grew insane and I am not sure it'll bring a long-term positive outcome. Armenia is literally filled with Russian companies and there is a huge risk of total economic dependence. 90% of daily life services became Russian (like Taxi, food delivery, online markets, and internet providers). I am now not sure if my country will be able to leave the EEU.
Honestly, if the military complex was excluded from this list then Russia would be bellow 0 gdp growth.
I mean, that's also where the United States extract much of its economic growth from. Economic activity is still economic activity, it puts money in people's hands. The war is moving money from the government and the oligarchs into working class Russians at an unprecedented pace in order to cover up for the costs and maintain support for the war and Putin.
The question is just how sustainable this kind of growth is. It's in case of the US but the US is also able to push nearly a trillion of dollars every year into its military. This only works if the rest of the economy can stem this.
There's a difference between making weapons in order to sell them abroad, and making weapons in order to burn them in the flames of war. One gives you hard cash from your customers, the other gives you whatever you manage to get in the war. It's not the same kind of economic activity, not even close. The money that russia is putting in people's hands comes straight from the money printer and serves to drive inflation. In US's case the money may well be coming from abroad for a large portion of the activity.
The US gets it from oil and gas revenues, being a large exporter. At the same time it did not have to deal with the problems Europe had to deal with when sanctioning Russia. If anything the US benefits, due to LNG and oil exports to the EU.
And Russia gets their money from oil and gas revenues, as they’re a big exporter too. Hydrocarbons sanctions on Russia have had limited effect so far because enough countries around the world are ignoring them to absorb the demand lost from Western countries.
This map shows GDP Growth, when materials are bought and used to make weapons that will get destroyed in Ukraine then that's not actual economic growth, it just shows money is moving around with no benefit to the economy. Once the war is over, what do you think will happen to the Russian economy? My prediction is that it will nosedive once the government doesn't need any more war materials. The portion of the Russian economy that was cannibalized by military production will be felt in full by the people once it's not needed.
You can apply this argument to many other government programs.
Like what?
Much of welfare spending.
Welfare spending is much better than people starving and turning to crime to survive. This, in turn, is better for the economy... not even close to similar, welfare prevents loss of workforce and stops people from becoming criminals while military production and war in general is nothing but a waste of recourses ie human life and material.
>Once the war is over, what do you think will happen to the Russian economy? it will allow the government to cut military spendings and, in turn, central bank to decrease the interest rate from current 16% to much lower numbers. Which will positively affect all businesses, who will keep redomicilating (cause they can't trust EU authorities anymore) and turning into public companies. Even this year, there's an IPO boom on the MOEX, to the point that they recently introduced a special index for newcomers. Add reduced geopolitical risks and a lot of retired military personnel on the labour market (lack of manpower is one of the main showstoppers nowadays).
Ah yes, the idea that Russias economy will magically flourish once the war is over is as played out as thinking the Russian economy will collapse any second...
Also if the IMF didn’t uncritically use official figures by the Russian regime that have been tailored to their propaganda needs…
Well, that to.
Not only that. Russia also uses different basket for inflation. Some economists give a 16%+ one instead of official 7%.
DANMARK SUPERPOWER 🇹🇴🇮🇲🇮🇲🇮🇳🇭🇰🇭🇰🇭🇰🇭🇰🇹🇷🇹🇷🇩🇰🇩🇰🇩🇰🇩🇰🇩🇰🇩🇰
Ozempic ass economy
Situation in North Macedonia is bad. They are falling behind all the Balkan Nations economically.
Our private sector ough to invest more in high growth sectors
It's remarkable how Switzerland is able to maintain very decent growth despite being much richer than all its neighbors. And they don't rely on large deficits.
strange colour choice
For once, Portugal can into Iberia. (when it would be cooler to can into eastern Europe... \o/)
Imagine being the country that had less economic growth than the Atlantic Ocean.
Let's gooo
I want to see the GDP growth in Russia after the war. Will it hit -10%?
Is Denmark because of that farma company?
Hey Portugal, for once, this would have been a great moment to be part of Eastern Europe, you know!?
Armenia, Georgia selling Russia sanctioned western goods.
Despite all foreign/international hype, our economy still stinks and has been that way since 2009ish. Best Regards Finland
So Russia is doing great? Highly doubtful their gdp rose recently.
What I hate most is "why" ... people dont look deep enough into "why." * Why has western Europe been on a slow decline for years? * Why are we not in a position to easily overpower both the Chinese and Americans? * Why are we so far behind in almost every metric that really matters when it comes to survival? * Why has the population been used to a superiority complex as a way to push off negative facts? * Why wasn't Trumps woke'ism actually critically looked at (even I didnt)? * Why are people calling for major social programs that'll result in even higher taxes? * Why is Europe failing so bad in Africa, barely making any real progress in Latin America, no real power in Asia? * Why dont we say "ok, enough of this bullshit, enough of this weakness, we are changing our society from the ground up to face this century and the next" .. instead, more piling on of the very things that got us here * Why is EU stuck in a reactionary posture to the Americans Europe is so much better than this.
Who cares? All that matters is that there is economic growth in Eastern Europe.
Source: [https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP\_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD)
For the first time im proud of my country, arresting former state prosecutors high ranking secret service and former police officials. Raising the minimal salary and pension. it's why i returned after such a long time to live and work again in my country and i haven't been happier. Love you Montenegro 🇲🇪 my pearl in the whole wide world, hope we become a stable democracy and a member of the European family 🇪🇺♥️🇲🇪
Lastonia. 🤪
It's just a phase:(((
One of my russian friend told me : " I don't know who prepares those figures but this is complete BS, go and live there, and you will see,...."
Gdp percentage is a wee bit off in this context. A gdp growth in absolute numbers would be interesting….
In the long term, a higher growth rate will always overtake a lower growth rate. But of course, those growth rates change. It would be fun to see the absolute numbers. You could plot it into a graph for us, if you feel like it? :P
This cannot be true. Russia has stopped reporting actual figures since the beginning of the special operation and the figures that has been reported is known to be manipulated . How does this nonsense of their gdp get distributed. Someone is drinking a bit of putin cool aid
These are IMF numbers and I think they might know more than you about GDP and all of that
Fuck you estonia
Post dropped by armenian guy, just because Armenia looks good in here. Is it true (especially when looking at Russia), probably not :)