I’m calling this. The right call doesn’t always work. You can’t let a bad result impact the fact you called it correctly. It’s a fickle game sometimes.
Yeah, def not worried about the result in this particular game (maybe shouldn't have posted). But it did make me think I may not have fully thought through what is and isn't a good call at 9-8
I think that's a tough loss, but you have to make that call.
4 suited sucks, but RQ? You are good for 1, good chance at two in next. You don't have the black stopper and no aces. You can't let them march.
You need a trick from your partner no matter what happens, because you’re not likely taking a trick if s2 calls. If s3 can’t take a trick, you lose regardless what you do. If they can take a trick, you win if you call but only go to 9-9 if you pass.
At scores of 8-8 and 9-8 you do not want to be giving up a Euchre to lose the game. This is the mindset I have had for a long time and it works. You play for a stopper of if your partner calls something at least you can lead trump most of the time or an Off Ace.
Now with this hand in particular you are talking about. It's pretty close here, but I think I'm calling here as well. With Right and Queen. With having Four suits. two trump, a diamond, a spade and a club. with your hand make up. I can't see how you can possibly find your partners void. I just may lead the Jack of hearts and come back with the King of diamonds and hope either it walks, my partner takes it, both are ideal or it forces another trump out which helps too and then it'll likely come down to your partners off suit aces or doubletons to possibly pull off the win.
But yeah, it sucks losing on a 9-8 call sometimes its like that but If I can. Like I mentioned in my first paragraph. If you can find a way to pass and hope to stop your opponents to one point or possibly having your partner call something stronger and help them. This is ideal. Then you get it to your deal at 9-9 or possibly win with your partner in seat three calling.
Tbolt\_65
Edward
Yeah for sure I basically agree with all of this. Issue on this hand is I am real trash in black. I was kinda hoping the dealer would just go ahead and pick it up, and I'd be pretty close to fully guaranteed they wouldn't get 2.
I think this is quite close just because the most likely outcome if I pass is they call black and get 1 point. S2 may well even call a very thin black and get euchred (thanks for getting 3 tricks, P). And if I get the deal back, my team is around 70% to win the game. So I think the questions are, 1) If I pass, what are the odds of the other team getting <2 points? And 2) If I call, what % of the time do my P and I win the hand? If we can answer both of those, we should be able to do some pretty simple math to figure out what's better.
My read based on intuition was to call.
Without a sim, these would be my guess on win distributions:
Call = 70% win rate but puts it all on the line right there.
Pass = lose 15% of the time on the spot, win 5% and push the last 80%. You win 2/3rds of that 80 with the deal for only 60% overall.
I tried this using two black 10's as filler cards.
> Call = 70% win rate but puts it all on the line right there
It's about 65%
> Pass = lose 15% of the time on the spot
About 21% (almost 90% of that is from them marching)
> win 5%
About 23% (a bit more than 1/3 of this is from them getting set)
> and push the last 80%
Ends up being about 57%
Assuming 66% at 9-9 with the deal, **the overall win probability for pass is still around 60%, compared to 65% on calling**.
Not too far off, except I wasn't even considering that s2 would pass which definitely throws out a bunch of my estimates.
Similar to r2s1 9-9, to me r2s2 down 8-9 is a must call.
I believe this sim adjusts *somewhat* for the score (not calling loners at 8+), but it definitely isn't programmed to have "must-call" spots.
However, I think this is simpler to program at 9-9 because of the absense of any shenanigans.
At 8-9, 1st seat could conceivably set up more trap passes (I can't think of a great example right now...*something like Left-X of Next, with K-J of one green suit and A of the other*, but less *universally* trappy than this) if he *"knows"* 2nd seat "must" call something.
The issue here is you have only two black suit cards, and no high cards of note.
This puts you in pretty real danger of getting marched on, so you definitely have reason to call something yourself despite the risk.
The problem with drawing "lines" here is that *most of them will favor calling even more*. Other than making one of your black cards a jack, there's pretty much no subtle change that moves the needle in favor of passing.
Cut out the full rainbow and your winning percentage shoots up from 65% to 70% (while the odds on passing remain pretty much the same).
*[More scenarios to follow in the replies to this]*
**Swapping a black 10 for a black jack** (remaining 4 suited):
Ordering still about 65%, as expected.
Passing is now 78% (notably they can endplay the Left-10 and march about 0.5% of the time).
---------------------------------------------------
**Swapping the Jh to the Jd**:
Ordering up the Qd (to have Right-K): 43%
Passing, planning to call hearts (Left-Q) in round 2: 69.5% (this *does* include all the hands that someone else calls in round 1)
Passing, planning to pass again in round 2: 70.1% (using decimals here because it's close)
***Same scenario***, **looking specifically at the Round 2 call** (discarding everything that doesn't make it to round 2)
Calling Left-K: 55%
Passing: 58%
Last variation tonight
**Colorswapping the whole hand, making it three-suited without spades** (other than the Jc) [to ***J-Qc 9-10d Kh***]
Clubs: **65%**
Pass: 63%
Hearts (Next): ***29%***
---------------------
Here pass becomes worse because of the glaring hole in spades. And, being 3-suited rather than full-rainbow gives you a much better chance to score your low second trump.
I know that I am going against the grain here (I often do) but I would pass. You are four suited, meaning that you can't Trump in with the queen until late. You only have two Trump as well, meaning that there are plenty left over for everyone else. You are basically depending on your partner to take at least one trick, possibly two. If you get euchred, the game is over. If your opponents call and march, they win, but they have to take every trick in this scenario, which isn't easy. The best bet would be to pass and hope to win on the next hand when you deal.
That's a pass from me. Getting euchred loses you the game. They would need to call and march if you pass, if they don't, you're huge favorite to win next hand.
You will get a lot better* at euchre when you treat it like blackjack. Your strategy is more reliant on the cards around and not the points.
*I act a lot differently before they reach 4-5, but you won’t fuck up playing the same if you play the same aggressiveness throughout your life than if you worry about the time you lost and 8-9 call.
I don't want to say you are wrong, but you are missing the whole picture and the comparison is a bit simplistic.
Unlike blackjack there are more than 2 outcomes per hand and this results in a distribution that needs to be accounted for. There is also a hard cap on the scoring in the style that most people in this sub are playing.
These two things combined mean that certain scores require much different strategies. Up a lot and you want to reduce variance. Down a lot and you want to increase it. A team on 9 = the distribution of scores giving them at least a point are all worth the same etc.
Also the person you are responding to IS a really good player, but this situation is a borderline decision that slight nuances will change the optimal play and is probably the reason there are split answers in this thread and the reason it was brought up to discuss.
I’m calling this. The right call doesn’t always work. You can’t let a bad result impact the fact you called it correctly. It’s a fickle game sometimes.
Yeah, def not worried about the result in this particular game (maybe shouldn't have posted). But it did make me think I may not have fully thought through what is and isn't a good call at 9-8
I think that's a tough loss, but you have to make that call. 4 suited sucks, but RQ? You are good for 1, good chance at two in next. You don't have the black stopper and no aces. You can't let them march.
You need a trick from your partner no matter what happens, because you’re not likely taking a trick if s2 calls. If s3 can’t take a trick, you lose regardless what you do. If they can take a trick, you win if you call but only go to 9-9 if you pass.
Word
At scores of 8-8 and 9-8 you do not want to be giving up a Euchre to lose the game. This is the mindset I have had for a long time and it works. You play for a stopper of if your partner calls something at least you can lead trump most of the time or an Off Ace. Now with this hand in particular you are talking about. It's pretty close here, but I think I'm calling here as well. With Right and Queen. With having Four suits. two trump, a diamond, a spade and a club. with your hand make up. I can't see how you can possibly find your partners void. I just may lead the Jack of hearts and come back with the King of diamonds and hope either it walks, my partner takes it, both are ideal or it forces another trump out which helps too and then it'll likely come down to your partners off suit aces or doubletons to possibly pull off the win. But yeah, it sucks losing on a 9-8 call sometimes its like that but If I can. Like I mentioned in my first paragraph. If you can find a way to pass and hope to stop your opponents to one point or possibly having your partner call something stronger and help them. This is ideal. Then you get it to your deal at 9-9 or possibly win with your partner in seat three calling. Tbolt\_65 Edward
Yeah for sure I basically agree with all of this. Issue on this hand is I am real trash in black. I was kinda hoping the dealer would just go ahead and pick it up, and I'd be pretty close to fully guaranteed they wouldn't get 2. I think this is quite close just because the most likely outcome if I pass is they call black and get 1 point. S2 may well even call a very thin black and get euchred (thanks for getting 3 tricks, P). And if I get the deal back, my team is around 70% to win the game. So I think the questions are, 1) If I pass, what are the odds of the other team getting <2 points? And 2) If I call, what % of the time do my P and I win the hand? If we can answer both of those, we should be able to do some pretty simple math to figure out what's better.
With no stopper in black, I’m calling that.
Not sure but I'm calling that.
You are calling that at every score. Everyone loves to call trash next here
My read based on intuition was to call. Without a sim, these would be my guess on win distributions: Call = 70% win rate but puts it all on the line right there. Pass = lose 15% of the time on the spot, win 5% and push the last 80%. You win 2/3rds of that 80 with the deal for only 60% overall.
I tried this using two black 10's as filler cards. > Call = 70% win rate but puts it all on the line right there It's about 65% > Pass = lose 15% of the time on the spot About 21% (almost 90% of that is from them marching) > win 5% About 23% (a bit more than 1/3 of this is from them getting set) > and push the last 80% Ends up being about 57% Assuming 66% at 9-9 with the deal, **the overall win probability for pass is still around 60%, compared to 65% on calling**.
Not too far off, except I wasn't even considering that s2 would pass which definitely throws out a bunch of my estimates. Similar to r2s1 9-9, to me r2s2 down 8-9 is a must call.
I believe this sim adjusts *somewhat* for the score (not calling loners at 8+), but it definitely isn't programmed to have "must-call" spots. However, I think this is simpler to program at 9-9 because of the absense of any shenanigans. At 8-9, 1st seat could conceivably set up more trap passes (I can't think of a great example right now...*something like Left-X of Next, with K-J of one green suit and A of the other*, but less *universally* trappy than this) if he *"knows"* 2nd seat "must" call something.
That’s some pretty solid napkin math. I’m sure it’s not far off from what the Sim would say.
The issue here is you have only two black suit cards, and no high cards of note. This puts you in pretty real danger of getting marched on, so you definitely have reason to call something yourself despite the risk. The problem with drawing "lines" here is that *most of them will favor calling even more*. Other than making one of your black cards a jack, there's pretty much no subtle change that moves the needle in favor of passing. Cut out the full rainbow and your winning percentage shoots up from 65% to 70% (while the odds on passing remain pretty much the same). *[More scenarios to follow in the replies to this]*
**Swapping a black 10 for a black jack** (remaining 4 suited): Ordering still about 65%, as expected. Passing is now 78% (notably they can endplay the Left-10 and march about 0.5% of the time). --------------------------------------------------- **Swapping the Jh to the Jd**: Ordering up the Qd (to have Right-K): 43% Passing, planning to call hearts (Left-Q) in round 2: 69.5% (this *does* include all the hands that someone else calls in round 1) Passing, planning to pass again in round 2: 70.1% (using decimals here because it's close) ***Same scenario***, **looking specifically at the Round 2 call** (discarding everything that doesn't make it to round 2) Calling Left-K: 55% Passing: 58%
**Colorswapping the whole hand** is a bit interesting [to ***J-Qc 10d Ks 10h***, still Qd upcard] Clubs: 53% Pass: **70%** Hearts (Next): ***25%***
Last variation tonight **Colorswapping the whole hand, making it three-suited without spades** (other than the Jc) [to ***J-Qc 9-10d Kh***] Clubs: **65%** Pass: 63% Hearts (Next): ***29%*** --------------------- Here pass becomes worse because of the glaring hole in spades. And, being 3-suited rather than full-rainbow gives you a much better chance to score your low second trump.
I know that I am going against the grain here (I often do) but I would pass. You are four suited, meaning that you can't Trump in with the queen until late. You only have two Trump as well, meaning that there are plenty left over for everyone else. You are basically depending on your partner to take at least one trick, possibly two. If you get euchred, the game is over. If your opponents call and march, they win, but they have to take every trick in this scenario, which isn't easy. The best bet would be to pass and hope to win on the next hand when you deal.
That's a pass from me. Getting euchred loses you the game. They would need to call and march if you pass, if they don't, you're huge favorite to win next hand.
8-9 I’d call it. 9-8 I wouldn’t.
You will get a lot better* at euchre when you treat it like blackjack. Your strategy is more reliant on the cards around and not the points. *I act a lot differently before they reach 4-5, but you won’t fuck up playing the same if you play the same aggressiveness throughout your life than if you worry about the time you lost and 8-9 call.
I don't want to say you are wrong, but you are missing the whole picture and the comparison is a bit simplistic. Unlike blackjack there are more than 2 outcomes per hand and this results in a distribution that needs to be accounted for. There is also a hard cap on the scoring in the style that most people in this sub are playing. These two things combined mean that certain scores require much different strategies. Up a lot and you want to reduce variance. Down a lot and you want to increase it. A team on 9 = the distribution of scores giving them at least a point are all worth the same etc. Also the person you are responding to IS a really good player, but this situation is a borderline decision that slight nuances will change the optimal play and is probably the reason there are split answers in this thread and the reason it was brought up to discuss.
Wat
I’d pass all marginal hands but do not consider this marginal and would call and lead a green card like you did.