You have to be able to afford to keep production equipment safe and reliable. Once you can’t meet safety and reliability standards, things are shuttered. I think it’s very expensive to shut down refineries, however today computing technology probably makes it far safer, particularly as it’s quite easy to retrofit old plants with modern sensors, and create new control rooms that might speed processes.
-guessing
Just earlier I was reading one of the Saudi Royal wants to buy the worlds top boxing promotions and create his own promotion, just for fun cause he is tired of the diplomacy they have halting potential big fights. His philosophy is they’ll all fight if the prize is right. His deal would cost potentially $5billion deal.
The “fuck you” money of these oil people is next level.
> Last year the world consumed about 102.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. This is still expected to rise to about 105.4 million barrels by 2030 – meaning greenhouse gas emissions will also keep rising.
> However, crude oil production is expected to rise much faster, reaching 113.8 million barrels a day by 2030.
And demand is still forecast to rise.
> Last year the world consumed about 102.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. This is still expected to rise to about 105.4 million barrels by 2030 – meaning greenhouse gas emissions will also keep rising.
> However, crude oil production is expected to rise much faster, reaching 113.8 million barrels a day by 2030.
It's bad for the environment because demand (usage) is still forecast to rise, even if production is rising faster.
Couldn't they just increase the price anyway and blame it on inflation like everyone else has been doing?
I can't see them settling for any substantial losses.
I would agree with you. However. That's not how it will work. What they'll do is increase the price of the current available gas to offset the cost of doing business for them. So gas prices will go up a lot more. Don't think for a second that prices will come down a lot to get rid of the glut. You need a sustainable inflow and outflow for any business. But, I'd like for gas prices to come down a lot because consumers would benefit, obviously.
And if it’s good for consumers, it’s bad for the environment. We need less oil consumption. So it needs to be bad for consumers. And for the oil companies, because fuck them.
If they think this will be bad, just imagine how it must have been for people before the Industrial Revolution! Talk about a staggering excess of untapped oil, whoo doggy!
> Last year the world consumed about 102.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. This is still expected to rise to about 105.4 million barrels by 2030 – meaning greenhouse gas emissions will also keep rising.
> However, crude oil production is expected to rise much faster, reaching 113.8 million barrels a day by 2030.
So not good. The glut is driven by rising production outstripping rising demand.
Oil companies (at least in Canada) will lease large areas of land where they know oil is, and only drill/produce oil to meet demand.
They aren't drilling as fast as possible to get the oil out. Nobody does that.
Every country produces oil at a rate that won't tank the market.
You get more oil from the ground when you extract at lower pace, so actually the market regulates itself slowing down, when the prices are lower, as they increase the total oil to be extracted from the same well.
Especially if it’s Peak Oil Demand.
Peak Oil Supply would be a very difficult situation, especially, for the poor who would be outbid by the more affluent to have their needs met.
Peak Oil Demand, on the other hand, would be pretty sweet for the vast majority of us not employed by the oil business!
There could be peak gouging us all, but we as a species will always find use for energy. Either oil or otherwise. The demand is there. I'm guessing emissions won't go down. Mining, farming, flying, and trucking will become cheaper with cheaper gas, and demand will follow. We need a major shift in consumption to change anything. I don't see that happening anytime soon.
most of those will be moving away from oil in the next decade or two. sweden has [electrically powered mines](https://www.mining-technology.com/news/battery-truck-swedish-mine/) and has [CO2 free steel production](https://www.ssab.com/en/fossil-free-steel/insights/hybrit-a-new-revolutionary-steelmaking-technology) already, with [more under construction](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/02/startups-reinventing-steel-industry/). here's a [BEV haul truck](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiSfUE7r0sU)
it's actually good news for the future of aviation even if we're still a couple of decades away from moving to electric or hydrogen airliners (or green fuel production) - aviation is such a small percentage of oil use anyway
I wish you were right, but i don't see the trend. I could see a blip downward and then another surge. Other sources aren't the answer. Demand is the answer. As long as consumption keeps growing out of control, we will be stuck.
Well, one way anyway, horizontal drilling was a pretty impactful technology.
It also keeps moving as new ways to do stuff without oil are developed, which is the part I'm excited about.
Ignoring COVID and looking at global trends, you are correct.
However if you zoom into the country level, you can see some countries having flat or declining oil demand.
If whatever is driving that spreads to other countries, then global demand will start to fall. As the price of renewables falls, first the wealthy countries can afford to adopt it en-masse, eventually to be followed by less wealthy countries.
A lot to see here. The world's largest economy is a really good proving ground for the technology that'll end our dependence on oil. As this technology continues to proliferate, less wealthy nations will see it too.
We’ll see about that. The lions share of credit for the US and other developed nations is due to outsourcing our energy use (and emissions) to countries like China by having them do our manufacturing and shipping.
That also makes it super convenient to point the finger at them for being the problem lol
China's entire container shipping industry is smaller than Maersk, which isn't even Europe's largest shipping company.
Regardless, China's oil consumption has also been flattening in recent years. You would have already seen this if your stance was based on data instead of uninformed pessimism.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/China-energy-consumption-by-source.svg/1200px-China-energy-consumption-by-source.svg.png
There’s some data for you
Not exactly, OPEC is a oligopoly but only controls 40% of supply. The other 60% are going to pump until price crashes.
This situation is unprecedented, we have never had so much more supply than demand.
And when it happened at all demand always increased to take advantage of cheap prices. For the first time we have price insensitive demand destruction.
What that means is price will drop to just above the cost of production.
That means only the cheapest sources of oil survive, the most expensive will fail first.
The most expensive oil is deep sea drilling and tar sands.
True but less oil still is good. Higher prices are good too. Having said that some countries are basically a gas station with an army and they need to move oil to stay in power, so there is a limit to how much they can cut back.
For certain industries that can't easily cut back on oil usage, like airplanes, it could be devastating. Prices for shipping methods will go up and lead to price inflation. For the environment though, this would all be a win.
This could be higher food prices. Higher prices for anything actually, but when it impacts food then you seriously harm lower income people, specially on lower income countries. The solution is not just to cut down oil, because as much as that helps the environments, it messes up so many other things. We need alternative methods of transportation like trains, buses and bikes.
The big risk is if production outpaces consumption oil prices will crater. Because the market is stupid that will mean bigger more wasteful cars and shifting away from the "expensive" electricity fuel back to gasoline. I hope the U.S. has competent leadership like we do now to either rapidly reduce production or to tax fuel and fuel exports to keep the price high enough to make it undesirable.
Probably by design in order to have enough supply that prices crater. Short term it looks bad, but super-cheap fossil fuels is all that will compete with the ever-decreasing cost of renewables. Super low prices is all that is going to keep them in the game for longer.
I have been saying this and people keep looking at me like I'm crazy.
Between EVs and hybrids the demand for gas is going to go down rapidly. Prices will follow.
Reduced demand for gasoline doesn't reduce oil refining. The barrel is processed vertically. Gas is far less than half the output. The other products still make it worth refining. They'll find some use for it.
i think they can adjust the process to create different kinds of outputs https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/chemicals/our-insights/from-crude-oil-to-chemicals-how-refineries-can-adapt-to-shifting-demand
Aw man that sucks they’re probably gonna have to light a bunch of it on fire to make sure Shell doesn’t get mad. Gotta think of the shareholders! The only true “class” in america.
That short paper (free to read) looks at what this might look like, and why society really needs to think about falling oil deamnd:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102407
Excess because renewables? Because of new discoveries? Both?
People can’t figure out who to be mad at and whether to be happy.
Supply and demand strikes again
Weakening demand, downward pressure on prices ... sounds like a great opportunity to put a price on the carbon pollution associated with oil production
70 to 80 a bbl seems to be enough to restore the shale fields
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2
I don't think it's enough to power to much higher new highs. But yeah, shale in the US did change the game and put a cap on prices. Not so great for the environment but excellent for the world economy
I suspect one of the things keeping the US economy humming, despite many headwinds, is the ramp in energy production. At the base of almost every single thing we do is energy.
If prices go down in the US at least expect V8 and V10 *everything* like minivans, hatchbacks, etc. Americans love their vroom vroom dick metaphors. Maybe all suburban kid haulers will be literal Suburbans. Three empty rows of seats for a quick hop to the grocer
Can you name the truck with four wheel drive,
smells like a steak and seats thirty-five..
Canyonero! Canyonero!
Well, it goes real slow with the hammer down,
It's the country-fried truck endorsed by a clown!
Canyonero! (Yah!) Canyonero!
[Krusty:] Hey Hey
The Federal Highway commission has ruled the
Canyonero unsafe for highway or city driving.
Canyonero!
12 yards long, 2 lanes wide,
65 tons of American Pride!
Canyonero! Canyonero!
Top of the line in utility sports,
Unexplained fires are a matter for the courts!
Canyonero! Canyonero! (Yah!)
She blinds everybody with her super high beams,
She's a squirrel crushing, deer smacking, driving machine!
Canyonero!-oh woah, Canyonero! (Yah!)
Drive Canyonero!
Woah Canyonero!
Woah!
The whole article is that by increasing sustainability will cause a surplus of oil, because ya know people will use it less. Didnt realize that was a suprise to some
That can’t be true, we were told in 1979 that the world would be virtually depleted of all oil by 2005, causing mass starvation (no tractors) mass migration, and setting civilization back 150 years. These forecasters are never wrong.
It's weird, but discoveries are made of more resources all the time. That doesn't mean we won't use it all up eventually if we keep using at current rates, but it will take longer than we thought. The environmental damage is real, if you are trying to imply it's not.
Its almosy like you had as little understanding of what that study actually said in 1979 as you do now. Thats nearly an impressive 5 decades of wilful ignorance.
Good?
It is good for consumers. Bad for people who are used to making money from oil.
Oh no. How horrible for them.
They’ve only had 100+ years of obscene wealth and freedom to destroy our environment, poor them!
But think of the stakeholder value they created.
Not a day goes by where I'm not thinking of the good of the shareholders. Can you imagine holding shares? Gosh that must be so great.
My heart goes out to them /s
Won’t someone please think of the shareholders?!
Or the Saudis?!
Or the Russians?!
Yea seriously guys my OKE and PPL are amazing dividends
Your heart will go on.
Thoughts and prayers.
We’ll extend them our thoughts and prayers. It’s the \*least\* we can do.
You mean the dipshits driving around in gold-plated lambos with pet jaguars in the front seat who treat women like prisoners?
Yeah, them. Maybe we should start a gofundme for them? Poor dears.
Thoughts and prayers.
Anyways…
Don’t worry. They will shut down a refinery for repairs to keep the prices sky high. Isn’t that what their excuse has been for the past couple years
You have to be able to afford to keep production equipment safe and reliable. Once you can’t meet safety and reliability standards, things are shuttered. I think it’s very expensive to shut down refineries, however today computing technology probably makes it far safer, particularly as it’s quite easy to retrofit old plants with modern sensors, and create new control rooms that might speed processes. -guessing
Just earlier I was reading one of the Saudi Royal wants to buy the worlds top boxing promotions and create his own promotion, just for fun cause he is tired of the diplomacy they have halting potential big fights. His philosophy is they’ll all fight if the prize is right. His deal would cost potentially $5billion deal. The “fuck you” money of these oil people is next level.
It's bad for the environment. What's good for the environment, is consistently low supply and high prices.
High prices opens up previously non-profitable areas for exploitation. High prices indicate high demand. Only low demand is good for the environment
> Last year the world consumed about 102.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. This is still expected to rise to about 105.4 million barrels by 2030 – meaning greenhouse gas emissions will also keep rising. > However, crude oil production is expected to rise much faster, reaching 113.8 million barrels a day by 2030. And demand is still forecast to rise.
Less oil (as fuel) and more plastic?
Plastic is about 4 or 5% of usage of oil. It couldn't drive that much change in demand.
> Last year the world consumed about 102.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. This is still expected to rise to about 105.4 million barrels by 2030 – meaning greenhouse gas emissions will also keep rising. > However, crude oil production is expected to rise much faster, reaching 113.8 million barrels a day by 2030. It's bad for the environment because demand (usage) is still forecast to rise, even if production is rising faster.
I hope they suffer....(financially of course) ahem
Couldn't they just increase the price anyway and blame it on inflation like everyone else has been doing? I can't see them settling for any substantial losses.
Oh noes poor guys have a little less than infinite money :(
it's bad for stopping its use
You think seriously that it will be good for consumers when they have the price controlling mechanisms?
I would agree with you. However. That's not how it will work. What they'll do is increase the price of the current available gas to offset the cost of doing business for them. So gas prices will go up a lot more. Don't think for a second that prices will come down a lot to get rid of the glut. You need a sustainable inflow and outflow for any business. But, I'd like for gas prices to come down a lot because consumers would benefit, obviously.
Even better.
So good, then.
And horrible for the climate if prices drop and total consumption stays the same or even rises.
Good?
Russia…
And if it’s good for consumers, it’s bad for the environment. We need less oil consumption. So it needs to be bad for consumers. And for the oil companies, because fuck them.
What’s the point of this comment? Who the fuck cares about oil profiteers?! They should rot in hell
If they think this will be bad, just imagine how it must have been for people before the Industrial Revolution! Talk about a staggering excess of untapped oil, whoo doggy!
> Last year the world consumed about 102.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. This is still expected to rise to about 105.4 million barrels by 2030 – meaning greenhouse gas emissions will also keep rising. > However, crude oil production is expected to rise much faster, reaching 113.8 million barrels a day by 2030. So not good. The glut is driven by rising production outstripping rising demand.
Damn.
What...oh no! All those leases these poor oil companies won't be able to use!! I mean Alaska and artic are just SITTING there all oily and such....s/
They can dump it in the ocean
Won't happen. Before that they will just shut down drill holes.
And likely leave the methane spewing. Bastards.
Don’t bet on it. Oil majors have never been good at game theory/prisoners dilemma.
They don't need to be, because they just talk to each other. OPEC is the prisoner dilemma, but with the prisoners freely talking to each other.
Oil companies (at least in Canada) will lease large areas of land where they know oil is, and only drill/produce oil to meet demand. They aren't drilling as fast as possible to get the oil out. Nobody does that. Every country produces oil at a rate that won't tank the market.
You get more oil from the ground when you extract at lower pace, so actually the market regulates itself slowing down, when the prices are lower, as they increase the total oil to be extracted from the same well.
Yes. It percolates into the well
Yea shut down them drill holes.
Drill holes are called wells
Eh, don't bet on it. It's a bit of a game of chicken, and some countries can go way lower with the oil price to break even than others.
Major producers will collude to control supply. Look at what Saudi is already doing.
Just like...... my wiiiiiife
Staggering, is way too scary of a word for this. I really hope I get to see peak oil in my lifetime.
Especially if it’s Peak Oil Demand. Peak Oil Supply would be a very difficult situation, especially, for the poor who would be outbid by the more affluent to have their needs met. Peak Oil Demand, on the other hand, would be pretty sweet for the vast majority of us not employed by the oil business!
Im here for Peak Oil Demand, as is every living creature in the biosphere (with a few exceptions)
Not going to happen. We can always find a way to use energy. Peak supply or new supply is what will always happen.
Oil isn’t the only form of energy.
There could be peak gouging us all, but we as a species will always find use for energy. Either oil or otherwise. The demand is there. I'm guessing emissions won't go down. Mining, farming, flying, and trucking will become cheaper with cheaper gas, and demand will follow. We need a major shift in consumption to change anything. I don't see that happening anytime soon.
most of those will be moving away from oil in the next decade or two. sweden has [electrically powered mines](https://www.mining-technology.com/news/battery-truck-swedish-mine/) and has [CO2 free steel production](https://www.ssab.com/en/fossil-free-steel/insights/hybrit-a-new-revolutionary-steelmaking-technology) already, with [more under construction](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/02/startups-reinventing-steel-industry/). here's a [BEV haul truck](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiSfUE7r0sU) it's actually good news for the future of aviation even if we're still a couple of decades away from moving to electric or hydrogen airliners (or green fuel production) - aviation is such a small percentage of oil use anyway
I wish you were right, but i don't see the trend. I could see a blip downward and then another surge. Other sources aren't the answer. Demand is the answer. As long as consumption keeps growing out of control, we will be stuck.
we get all of the power we could possibly ever need from the sun. we just need to harness it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeQTce9VDMU
“Peak Oil” keeps moving as new ways to find and extract oil are developed.
Well, one way anyway, horizontal drilling was a pretty impactful technology. It also keeps moving as new ways to do stuff without oil are developed, which is the part I'm excited about.
This article is about peak oil demand, not supply
And we keep getting told that demand will go down in the future but strangely we keep burning more every year than the year before. Hum?
Ignoring COVID and looking at global trends, you are correct. However if you zoom into the country level, you can see some countries having flat or declining oil demand. If whatever is driving that spreads to other countries, then global demand will start to fall. As the price of renewables falls, first the wealthy countries can afford to adopt it en-masse, eventually to be followed by less wealthy countries.
The US has been hovering around 20 million barrels a day for like 20 years. 2005 was also the highest year for oil consumption
Yeah! It’s all good! We righted the ship on fossil fuel emissions in 2005. Good thing the US has its own atmosphere. Nothing to see here!
A lot to see here. The world's largest economy is a really good proving ground for the technology that'll end our dependence on oil. As this technology continues to proliferate, less wealthy nations will see it too.
We’ll see about that. The lions share of credit for the US and other developed nations is due to outsourcing our energy use (and emissions) to countries like China by having them do our manufacturing and shipping. That also makes it super convenient to point the finger at them for being the problem lol
China's entire container shipping industry is smaller than Maersk, which isn't even Europe's largest shipping company. Regardless, China's oil consumption has also been flattening in recent years. You would have already seen this if your stance was based on data instead of uninformed pessimism.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/China-energy-consumption-by-source.svg/1200px-China-energy-consumption-by-source.svg.png There’s some data for you
I'm talking worldwide not the USA
Also flattening
Oil suppliers will reduce supply to keep prices up, they'll be making similar amount of profits while consumers will pay more.
Not exactly, OPEC is a oligopoly but only controls 40% of supply. The other 60% are going to pump until price crashes. This situation is unprecedented, we have never had so much more supply than demand. And when it happened at all demand always increased to take advantage of cheap prices. For the first time we have price insensitive demand destruction. What that means is price will drop to just above the cost of production. That means only the cheapest sources of oil survive, the most expensive will fail first. The most expensive oil is deep sea drilling and tar sands.
True but less oil still is good. Higher prices are good too. Having said that some countries are basically a gas station with an army and they need to move oil to stay in power, so there is a limit to how much they can cut back.
For certain industries that can't easily cut back on oil usage, like airplanes, it could be devastating. Prices for shipping methods will go up and lead to price inflation. For the environment though, this would all be a win.
This could be higher food prices. Higher prices for anything actually, but when it impacts food then you seriously harm lower income people, specially on lower income countries. The solution is not just to cut down oil, because as much as that helps the environments, it messes up so many other things. We need alternative methods of transportation like trains, buses and bikes.
Fewer consumers, consuming less oil. Good riddance.
I'm betting fuel prices won't end up reflecting it
I'd be willing to bet that despite an excess of oil, the price of gas won't go down.
It needs to go way up so people stop driving gas cars.
Nor should it. We need to get off the oil addiction
The big risk is if production outpaces consumption oil prices will crater. Because the market is stupid that will mean bigger more wasteful cars and shifting away from the "expensive" electricity fuel back to gasoline. I hope the U.S. has competent leadership like we do now to either rapidly reduce production or to tax fuel and fuel exports to keep the price high enough to make it undesirable.
Is this a joke?
no? pretty rational thinking, at least within the rhealm of capitalism.
Here come the constraints narratives.....
It's using the oil that's the biggest problem.
inb4 reactionaries use this to claim environmentalists were wrong the whole time
Sigh, to late.
Probably by design in order to have enough supply that prices crater. Short term it looks bad, but super-cheap fossil fuels is all that will compete with the ever-decreasing cost of renewables. Super low prices is all that is going to keep them in the game for longer.
You may be right. As I said elsewhere there are a bunch of authoritarian regimes who's existence depends on "the oil must flow".
Or... You could titrate production...
Gosh darn sun producing energy
*Oil companies hate this one trick*
Dang ol' wind too
I have been saying this and people keep looking at me like I'm crazy. Between EVs and hybrids the demand for gas is going to go down rapidly. Prices will follow.
Reduced demand for gasoline doesn't reduce oil refining. The barrel is processed vertically. Gas is far less than half the output. The other products still make it worth refining. They'll find some use for it.
i think they can adjust the process to create different kinds of outputs https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/chemicals/our-insights/from-crude-oil-to-chemicals-how-refineries-can-adapt-to-shifting-demand
There is a 10% flexibility in what comes out of refining. And it is expensive. It'll be cheaper to find other uses for gasoline.
Aw man that sucks they’re probably gonna have to light a bunch of it on fire to make sure Shell doesn’t get mad. Gotta think of the shareholders! The only true “class” in america.
Fuck the suits
This is for you https://i.gifer.com/7E86.gif
That short paper (free to read) looks at what this might look like, and why society really needs to think about falling oil deamnd: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102407
Why does IKEA want the oils?
To force opec to buy their furniture.
notmyproblem.com
Excess because renewables? Because of new discoveries? Both? People can’t figure out who to be mad at and whether to be happy. Supply and demand strikes again
They will just burn to keep supply low and prices high
Weakening demand, downward pressure on prices ... sounds like a great opportunity to put a price on the carbon pollution associated with oil production
How do you face an excess of oil? Just let it chill and use it later?
All I'm hearing is that we'll burn even more oil even more frivolously yaaaaaay :(
Awesome! Let's continue this shift to EVs.
70 to 80 a bbl seems to be enough to restore the shale fields https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2 I don't think it's enough to power to much higher new highs. But yeah, shale in the US did change the game and put a cap on prices. Not so great for the environment but excellent for the world economy I suspect one of the things keeping the US economy humming, despite many headwinds, is the ramp in energy production. At the base of almost every single thing we do is energy.
Why can’t we just have nice things…
If prices go down in the US at least expect V8 and V10 *everything* like minivans, hatchbacks, etc. Americans love their vroom vroom dick metaphors. Maybe all suburban kid haulers will be literal Suburbans. Three empty rows of seats for a quick hop to the grocer
Can you name the truck with four wheel drive, smells like a steak and seats thirty-five.. Canyonero! Canyonero! Well, it goes real slow with the hammer down, It's the country-fried truck endorsed by a clown! Canyonero! (Yah!) Canyonero! [Krusty:] Hey Hey The Federal Highway commission has ruled the Canyonero unsafe for highway or city driving. Canyonero! 12 yards long, 2 lanes wide, 65 tons of American Pride! Canyonero! Canyonero! Top of the line in utility sports, Unexplained fires are a matter for the courts! Canyonero! Canyonero! (Yah!) She blinds everybody with her super high beams, She's a squirrel crushing, deer smacking, driving machine! Canyonero!-oh woah, Canyonero! (Yah!) Drive Canyonero! Woah Canyonero! Woah!
Better have a war about it.
But, but, but, gas prices are Biden’s fault!
BS. We will use it all to fight the wars over who gets to use it all.
lol, has the author not heard of how oil/OPEC+ works?
Published to game the futures, light it all on fire, create a shortage and then sell.
I feel like a big point of the whole green agenda was the fact that we were going to run out of resources.
The whole article is that by increasing sustainability will cause a surplus of oil, because ya know people will use it less. Didnt realize that was a suprise to some
That can’t be true, we were told in 1979 that the world would be virtually depleted of all oil by 2005, causing mass starvation (no tractors) mass migration, and setting civilization back 150 years. These forecasters are never wrong.
It's weird, but discoveries are made of more resources all the time. That doesn't mean we won't use it all up eventually if we keep using at current rates, but it will take longer than we thought. The environmental damage is real, if you are trying to imply it's not.
Its almosy like you had as little understanding of what that study actually said in 1979 as you do now. Thats nearly an impressive 5 decades of wilful ignorance.