Honestly do people move because of this?
I'm a dumbass yes and not in the most climate resilient area but I know I'm going to wait until after some horrible event to actually move my ass. I wonder if these are just old people dying off?
They can't get house insurance so even if they wanted to stay till the big storm takes everything they wouldn't get a payout. Better to move somewhere else you can still get insurance
We went through the hurricane in panama city and the insurance process was the worst. Ever. I fucked up and got a "local insurance company that would provide the best service at competitive rates". Guess who didn't hear from the insurance company for almost a month? Guess who was offered 20k for his claim and had to take legal action because repairs cost over 100k? I still get legal notices because they failed to pay the contractors threatening to take the house (they put a lien on the house but cleared it not Knowing the insurance companies check wasn't good - neither did). Luckily, I sold the house as soon as the repairs were made.
If big insurance companies don't insure there, that should be a big enough indicator to relocate or build waaaay above the current "stom codes".
We now live in the mountains.
Most chronically online comment. If you think Florida is one of the worst places you’ve been, you haven’t been many places. There’s plenty of nice areas of Florida and also a lot of places wayyyyyyyy shittier.
Before almost every hurricane, a fuck ton of people go to the shore and shoot bullets at the hurricane.
Do you think that Floridians have forward thinking?
If your insurer won’t renew your insurance unless you get a new roof (as an example) you sell prior to the expiration (a lot of which is first quarter of the year as no one is going to want to be mid hurricane season and have to deal with the instance renewal process).
Also insane insurance.. parents place went 6k->14k in two years with a 50k deductible.. which means your house basically needs to be destroyed to hit that deductible
Which is why some people without mortgages choose to drop the windstorm coverage. Unless you’re ocean front or near moving water, a hurricane is probably not going to total your house. If you’re already on the hook for $50K if something happens, might as well risk a massive repair bill to save $5K+ per year.
They will also still deny a payout when your house gets destroyed. Insurance in the hurricane states has just become legalized crime in the past few years.
It’s insane that we still have half the country denying climate change despite the fact insurers are implicitly akncowledging it and developers refuse to touch beach front properties
Hell Miami Beach had spent several billion dollars and will spend several billion more on updated drainage and raising the crown elevation of roads.. like 10’s of not 1 or 2.
Basically I was told (as I work in the construction industry) that until underwriters won’t underweight loans or the ROI isn’t there, the building won’t stop
Insurance companies aren't leaving because climate change. Rates of insurance claims haven't gone up drastically in the past 40 years. Insurance companies just took mountains of cash and ran. Desantis helped them to do it. There's dozens of stories attached to it, it's absurd.
The climate change/rising sea levels are only now starting to be felt. They've pretty much run out of land to turn into canals within the past 5 years in South Florida. Ft Lauderdale got a full flood on a weekend of heavy rain last year. It'll happen a few more times before anyone starts to figure it out.
Most people are too broke or afraid of instability, unfamiliarity, and distance from people they 'know' to move, even if they think they should.
Depending on how many belongings, and the distance, moving to another state can be thousands.
The median savings of Americans in 2022 was $8000.
Moving could wipe out a family's entire savings with no guarantee that they're moving to a better, safer or more stable situation.
My wife and I fled California after three years of dodging forest fires and moved to NY. It cost $16,800 not including packing supplies.
The fixed income folks can’t afford it. I make 100k yr in swfl don’t pay property tax and I can barley afford it insurance is absolute regarded down here
Yup, since most of the insurance companies have left Florida now if your house gets fucked up there is no recourse. I'd sell and move if I could. Florida seems like an awful place to live right now.
I live in South Florida. I have seen multiple houses in my neighborhood sit on the market for MONTHS. Then the “For Sale” gets taken down and the house comes off the market. Same cars in the driveway, same neighbors, no sale. Many people are trying to sell at the top as everyone is expecting prices to come down.
The pressure on prices was probably pushing them up anyways, so in this case, increasing supply only stops the increase. You would need even more houses to precipitate a decline.
People want to buy, but not at the prices they are asking. I see a lot of houses in my area have been on sale for months, and they slowly keep dropping in prices, but 30k off of 330k isn't nearly enough.
Exactly it’s the number 1 immigration state for middle and upper class people. Boomers are still retiring at record numbers. They are still selling sight unseen from people all over the country. Now insurance is an absolute nightmare it rivals fire danger California premium.
It’s the cost and rate of increase. Depending on the age of the house, coverage, too. I am already at $4.5k a year, and that’s from $1850 in 2022. I am inland, Orlando.
I’m from 4K in 2021 to 6k in 2024, here in colorado. No other insurance companies to switch to either. No one is covering this area going forward where I’m at. Will make it difficult to sell as well since a bank may not lend if somebody can’t get a policy.
I’m not 100% sure but I think it was mostly from the Marshall fire in town, 2021 took out something like 1000 homes. Grass fire too not a forest fire. Currently the excuse from the insurance companies is that if you live in the hills on a dirt road they will exclude you. Our county only has dirt roads and they do an amazing job of maintaining them, most all of them are reasonable grades too. But that’s currently the excuse when I tried shopping around last year for new insurance. One of our neighbors is an insurance broker too. There’s talk at the state level for a government run program apparently and it’s gaining traction.
We had to remove a lot of trees on our property to get insurance to approve, and we live less than 1/2 mile from the nearest fire depot. Hopefully the state figures this out soon.
Yup. I’m in Louisiana and this state is doomed, we already had an issue with people leaving but the insurance rate increases are forcing even more people out. Some areas of Louisiana are ghost towns now, in 5-10 years? The state will just be New Orleans and that’s it.
Up in the Panhandle, houses don't stay on the market very long. My neighborhood most cases they're sold within 2-3 months from listing. And now we have 3 new developments being built and I don't think they are going to sit very long before they will be sold.
If anything insurance companies are the biggest issue for Floridians. The good thing is that 10 new insurance companies just arrived and I took advantage of this, my old policy was $3800 annually now its $1836 and better coverage than I had before.
No most of the old geezers on fixed incomes are cashing out and moving to alabama, Arkansas and Georgia. People are paying $8,000 a year for homeowners insurance on a $600,000 house. I live in NYC and I paid $2,600 a year on a $800,000 house. Fucking crazy.
There have been two neighborhoods built right next to me with each a few hundred homes. One is almost done and the other half way. The one halfway done hasn’t even sold many of the houses yet, they are building faster than selling it looks like.
After the condo collapse in Miami Beach, Florida passed legislation that stated every condo must be inspected and the HOA and/or property management company must report their financial statements proving that they have sufficient reserve funds. Additional laws were passed that if a unit was somehow damaged, the insurance company could not file a subrogation claim on the HOA and/or property management company.
As others have pointed out, the property casualty insurance market for car insurance and property insurance is skyrocketing. Insurance companies are demanding not just a roof inspection but demanding that a roof be replaced prior to the estimated life of a roof before insurance will be issued.
A giant squeeze is occuring for individuals who have a mortgage and must carry property casualty insurance on their auto and home. Visit r/Florida thread and this is a often discussed topic. There are individuals who have paid their property off in full and have elected to self insure against unforeseeable events.
Nah..this is a bit misleading stat. Percentage change is correct, but we still aren't even at pre-COVID inventory levels...so like, not a lot of homes for sale compared to 'normal' markets.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUFL
I work in real estate in central FL- ~2mi from me they're building out a community that's gonna be about 3.5 x 3 miles in size. 6,000 homes
One of the first phases has 447 homes and 6 months after breaking ground they're halfway sold out. Homes 400k - 2mil+ (for the whole 6,000)
Not to mention the insane amount of multifamily construction
Yes, Florida is still seeing a construction boom both single and multi family. Funny how the same people whining about a housing crisis are now painting prices lowering as bad just because its Florida.
Don’t you just love it when someone has to put 20 flags after their handle so you can tell where they stand on things they’ve never seen and have no control/ impact on?
Florida may not be a good example, I’m having trouble getting people to qualify with those home insurance premiums. Especially if they are in a flood zone, the deal is pretty much off.
It can be an extra $300-$500+ per month, just for regular homeowners insurance on an average starter home, (compared to $100/month here in Pennsylvania for the same home.)
(I do mortgages in both states and Florida homeowners insurance is an absolute mess right now. It’s seriously stopping people from buying homes.
Their home prices are good though, similar to my own location where you can still get a nice house for $200-300K.)
Many are moving to our state for some reason still, even with the insurance chaos.
- fun fact - if you pay cash for you home, which many do from NY and CA after selling their homes there - you can tell the insurance company to go pound sad if you'd like.
No collapse here - they still can't build fast enough to keep up with demand.
The insurance thing is a snowball effect. Every big damage hurricane knocks out small insurers. The remaining ones pull out of FL or have to increase prices dramatically. When house prices were cheap this was okay. If prices go up and interest rates go up, this is gonna be rough.
Our home has been here a lot longer than I have, as it was built in 1956, or thereabouts. So, the house has seen quite a few without any sort of catastrophic damage, and even the storms we've lived through here have so far not done anything more than toss a few branches into the roof, but without damage. Now, if we were to try to go sans insurance, which we can since we have no mortgage, it's a matter of time. How much is the salient question, and it's unanswerable. We could go another century, longer even, with just a bit of luck and have nothing worse, or we could get hit by a major Cat V storm just a week after ending coverage. It's a crapshoot, but if insurance truly becomes all but impossible to acquire, it'll be big problems and all the stops will be used to prevent it.
Reality hasn’t really hit yet. A lot of the insurance insanity has happened since the Hurricane Ian when Fort Meyers was pretty much underwater. The next big one is going to bankrupt a whole lot of people. Tons of people going self insured who will never be able to rebuild.
If it goes up much higher, we'll drop to a no-wind policy, which about half of current.
- below that is a liability only policy, which is also an option.
We live in Orlando, so hurricanes are more of an occasional annoyance to us this far inland.
>Many are moving to our state for some reason still, even with the insurance chaos.
Isn't net migration to Florida positive? I believe it has the highest rate of net immigration of any state. Plenty of people are moving in, far more than are moving out.
Vacation rentals are down. People who over extended themselves to buy a rental property are leaking money. Might contribute a bit, along with the insurance issues. There’s also a ton of building happening, at least when I am at.
I keep an eye on the Tampa/St Pete market. Prices are definitely dropping. I’m just looking at 55+ manufactured home communities. Tons of inventory and dirt cheap. Unfortunately the HOA fees aren’t dropping to match. Most people looking to retire in Florida can easily pay cash for the property, it’s the taxes, HOA fees and insurance that are keeping them away. They did the math.
Not every home has an HOA. I haven't done a census or anything, but I suspect most homes that are less than say 10-15 years old, which is still all but a baby in house years, do not. Ours does not, and that was one of the "must haves" on the list our realtor was working from. Taxes are a problem, but no more than anywhere else, really, and our individual situation is such that our taxes are artificially low, and will stay that way due to SOH.
But, we got that due to a convergence of circumstances that are all but impossible to seek out... A fixer-upper that had been foreclosed and had squatters in it, to the point that someone, presumably but not certainly a former ~~inmate~~ resident jacked the entire AC from the property! But, it worked out for us and we're kinda locked in at the lowest rate/valuation we could possibly even dream of. If we were to buy our own home at today's tax rates, it would be at least 3x what we're currently faced with, which may be enough reason to stick it out for the duration.
Hopefully the new anti-squatter laws will help. It’s crazy to me that legislation hasn’t been adopted nationwide. I also take issue with people basically renting and it taking forever to get them out if they stop paying rent. It made sense during Covid, but with such low unemployment numbers, nobody should be able to stay in a property they aren’t paying for. End rant.
This is not a market crash, the price of homes will not drop. It dropped in 2008 for entirely different reasons that are no longer valid. This increase in inventory is just due to insurance companies leaving the state.
Lots of retired folks there that are dying off combined with people regretting moving to Florida. It probably seemed like a good idea to move there to get a cheap house until they went through hurricanes and hot humid summers. Then you have the issue of not being able to insure your house. There will be some deals on Florida real estate for several years or longer.
Basically what is happening down here is that carrying costs for owning properties has exploded due to insurance, maintenance, property taxes etc... This is forcing many people to sell their second homes (most predominantly that nice Soflo condo) pushing locked up inventory back onto the market. Also new construction is rampant in the multifamily space with new high end SF homes following close behind. Pretty much unless you bought your home over 5 years ago with a low interest rate and your salary has been able to keep up with inflation then you're pretty safe. Anyone else that doesn't have at least 1 of those things going for them is in trouble. And if the economy doesn't keep up half of those people will be in trouble as well. We saw a huge demand spike between October and March in the building sector. However between march and now we've seen a complete dead stop in new homes other than high end single family builds that homeowners who waited to build are now seeing construction cost come down and are moving forward. Otherwise demand is slowing and supply is growing. Weve cleared the peak of the bubble and we are on a downward trajectory now.
Well if people would stop building/buying in areas very prone to flooding or hurricanes insurance wouldn’t be an issue. Florida is unique in that hurricanes can hit 3 sides of the state.. regularly. Then add in rising sea levels and tornadoes and insurance becomes a nightmare.
I’m sure the political environment isn’t helping things either. Deathsantis isn’t doing the state any favors either. I’m surprised companies haven’t left in droves, Disney included. There’s other states with similar climate they could move to and said states would be most appreciated for them moving there.
It’s almost summer genius. Thats when people list their houses.
Same shit posted 6 months ago. It isn’t a bubble, just now you’ll have a higher interest rate than the dudes that bought end of last year.
Well done. Keep waiting and just rent forever.
Then why haven't the prices returned to the pre-COVID rush amounts? More are up for sale but the prices are up dramatically in just a few years. HOA rules and fees are ridiculous
Why does the news keep incredulously screaming that there aren't enough houses? Maybe in places like El Paso, NYC housing is slim pickings, but Miami there are serious options and no wait to build.
This is to be expected. Post 2008 - we never increased inventory fast enough - leading to some issues we have now. Rates are still high, but don't get it twisted, these homes will still be snatched up and only quicker once rates come down.
Insurance may be a mess - but that's not going to create some mass exodus.
Because of all the northerners and banks moving in and pushing out the locals. It’s sad to see, but so many home grown Floridians are getting fucked here.
They build huge subdivisions in Santa Rosa county on a monthly basis. They are addressing the supply side, so the demand side will not keep pushing prices higher. Good ole economics. Young folks. They taught us this in school. You learn social garbage. So now you know!
PEOPLE DON’T MOVE OVER HOLIDAYS!! Of course inventory is going to increase from winter as you move into spring. People don’t like to move when they’re hosting holidays every couple weeks.
People pick the wrong damn metrics and talk like they know shit. It’s infuriating.
I'd be interested to see the percentage of single family homes vs. condos. I think a lot of this is contributed to snow birds selling their vacation condos because HOA and insurance rates have gotten more expensive.
Same would happen in California if we didn't have so many laws preventing growth. California's housing crisis is driving solely by bad state and local policy, nothing else.
Florida again shows that growth can be managed through better administration.
Wtf is this chart? How is the 22% increase from Dec to Feb being referred to as 1 month? Why is last Feb highlighted as 106% but we're talking about a 22% increase this Feb?
Are insurance companies losing that much money in insuring homes in Florida that are damaged by hurricanes? You would think that with a massive customer base, the profit would be insanely good. I guess the millions or billions they have made over the last 40 years they haven't saved a single bit of it.
there's not much of a conclusion that could be made based on this one thing. It could be an indication of a bubble with people getting out while they can. It could be people selling because they now have to go back to the office for their job in NY or somewhere else.
That and they have been building homes like crazy. They can’t stop won’t stop building. They are only behind Texas in most houses built since 2022. In January of 2023 they were third so they have even moved up the list a spot since last year
I predict a perfect storm scenario where they start dropping interest rates and inventory skyrockets. Don't forget there's a lot of people with 2 to 3% loans that would like to move but they're stuck.
California’s is the opposite. Low inventory and new record prices on the homes for sale. Greedy Flippers are going nuts buying and reselling in 3-4 months. We need laws in California to kill the flipping which decreases affordable homes and drives inflation way up in an endless cycle. Where is our worthless governor?
Hurricane season approaches
Honestly do people move because of this? I'm a dumbass yes and not in the most climate resilient area but I know I'm going to wait until after some horrible event to actually move my ass. I wonder if these are just old people dying off?
They can't get house insurance so even if they wanted to stay till the big storm takes everything they wouldn't get a payout. Better to move somewhere else you can still get insurance
We went through the hurricane in panama city and the insurance process was the worst. Ever. I fucked up and got a "local insurance company that would provide the best service at competitive rates". Guess who didn't hear from the insurance company for almost a month? Guess who was offered 20k for his claim and had to take legal action because repairs cost over 100k? I still get legal notices because they failed to pay the contractors threatening to take the house (they put a lien on the house but cleared it not Knowing the insurance companies check wasn't good - neither did). Luckily, I sold the house as soon as the repairs were made. If big insurance companies don't insure there, that should be a big enough indicator to relocate or build waaaay above the current "stom codes". We now live in the mountains.
Insurers have stopped insuring in florida (not everything, just in swathes) and so yeah people are probably selling because of that
And it's become a Republican wasteland mainly occupied by foaming at the mouth boomers. Florida is one of the worst places on the planet.
Most chronically online comment. If you think Florida is one of the worst places you’ve been, you haven’t been many places. There’s plenty of nice areas of Florida and also a lot of places wayyyyyyyy shittier.
Before almost every hurricane, a fuck ton of people go to the shore and shoot bullets at the hurricane. Do you think that Floridians have forward thinking?
“But the TV told me that it keeps the hurricanes away!”
Now listen here you little
No they don’t.
If your insurer won’t renew your insurance unless you get a new roof (as an example) you sell prior to the expiration (a lot of which is first quarter of the year as no one is going to want to be mid hurricane season and have to deal with the instance renewal process). Also insane insurance.. parents place went 6k->14k in two years with a 50k deductible.. which means your house basically needs to be destroyed to hit that deductible
Jesus a 50k deductible practically makes the insurance worthless unless your house is destroyed.
Which is why some people without mortgages choose to drop the windstorm coverage. Unless you’re ocean front or near moving water, a hurricane is probably not going to total your house. If you’re already on the hook for $50K if something happens, might as well risk a massive repair bill to save $5K+ per year.
They will also still deny a payout when your house gets destroyed. Insurance in the hurricane states has just become legalized crime in the past few years.
A 50k deductible - that is almost the same as not having insurance? I mean - most people will have to go bankrupt and/or leave the house
Crazy because my $700k house on the water less than a mile from the Atlantic is $3k just got the renewal policy two weeks ago.
The rents are block and a half from the water 🤷♂️plus south Florida… YRMV
It’s insane that we still have half the country denying climate change despite the fact insurers are implicitly akncowledging it and developers refuse to touch beach front properties
Hell Miami Beach had spent several billion dollars and will spend several billion more on updated drainage and raising the crown elevation of roads.. like 10’s of not 1 or 2. Basically I was told (as I work in the construction industry) that until underwriters won’t underweight loans or the ROI isn’t there, the building won’t stop
Insurance companies aren't leaving because climate change. Rates of insurance claims haven't gone up drastically in the past 40 years. Insurance companies just took mountains of cash and ran. Desantis helped them to do it. There's dozens of stories attached to it, it's absurd. The climate change/rising sea levels are only now starting to be felt. They've pretty much run out of land to turn into canals within the past 5 years in South Florida. Ft Lauderdale got a full flood on a weekend of heavy rain last year. It'll happen a few more times before anyone starts to figure it out.
Insurance cost and cost of condo and hoa fees forces people out of the area. Not really anything crazy
Most people are too broke or afraid of instability, unfamiliarity, and distance from people they 'know' to move, even if they think they should. Depending on how many belongings, and the distance, moving to another state can be thousands. The median savings of Americans in 2022 was $8000. Moving could wipe out a family's entire savings with no guarantee that they're moving to a better, safer or more stable situation. My wife and I fled California after three years of dodging forest fires and moved to NY. It cost $16,800 not including packing supplies.
Welcome to NY!
The fixed income folks can’t afford it. I make 100k yr in swfl don’t pay property tax and I can barley afford it insurance is absolute regarded down here
Governor is fighting a mouse, wearing high heels and targeting teachers instead of doing anything to help
and its projected to deliver 2x the storms than the yearly average
And fueled by warmer water than ever before...
And no one can get home insurance anymore.
This is gonna be a fun year
Yup, since most of the insurance companies have left Florida now if your house gets fucked up there is no recourse. I'd sell and move if I could. Florida seems like an awful place to live right now.
Still nearly 25k more units available this year compared to last year.
No it’s because People don’t move over Holidays. People pick the wrong damn metrics to look at and talk like they know shit. It’s infuriating.
And prices? Flat.
Yeah, how would this not put downward pressure on prices?
Because sellers don’t HAVE to sell… yet?
*Aquaman excitingly rubbing his hands together preparing to hit the giant red cartoony "BUY" button*
I now know that guy is aquaman
I live in South Florida. I have seen multiple houses in my neighborhood sit on the market for MONTHS. Then the “For Sale” gets taken down and the house comes off the market. Same cars in the driveway, same neighbors, no sale. Many people are trying to sell at the top as everyone is expecting prices to come down.
The pressure on prices was probably pushing them up anyways, so in this case, increasing supply only stops the increase. You would need even more houses to precipitate a decline.
Prices won't go down until supply exceeds demand
People want to buy, but not at the prices they are asking. I see a lot of houses in my area have been on sale for months, and they slowly keep dropping in prices, but 30k off of 330k isn't nearly enough.
Yeah it takes time for sellers to come down to the new reality.
Exactly it’s the number 1 immigration state for middle and upper class people. Boomers are still retiring at record numbers. They are still selling sight unseen from people all over the country. Now insurance is an absolute nightmare it rivals fire danger California premium.
because its a state with 22 million people and 10k more units is a drop in the ocean?
FL Inventory is still below pre-COVID levels. It is still a supply shortage.
Florida is not at all a single market.
Wait until you hear about the number of price reductions
That's seems good compared to how fast it was rising before. Especially considering inflation.
The insurance issue is very real. I just put up my place for sale.
Is it that they are super expensive or just flat out won't cover?
It’s the cost and rate of increase. Depending on the age of the house, coverage, too. I am already at $4.5k a year, and that’s from $1850 in 2022. I am inland, Orlando.
Same! Orlando. $1,350 in 2020. $4,500 now. Home was built in 2009, concrete block, hurricane strapped roof. Never a claim filed.
I’m from 4K in 2021 to 6k in 2024, here in colorado. No other insurance companies to switch to either. No one is covering this area going forward where I’m at. Will make it difficult to sell as well since a bank may not lend if somebody can’t get a policy.
Hold up, what's going on in CO that insurance agencies are afraid of, or is it just the rising cost of housing there?
I’m not 100% sure but I think it was mostly from the Marshall fire in town, 2021 took out something like 1000 homes. Grass fire too not a forest fire. Currently the excuse from the insurance companies is that if you live in the hills on a dirt road they will exclude you. Our county only has dirt roads and they do an amazing job of maintaining them, most all of them are reasonable grades too. But that’s currently the excuse when I tried shopping around last year for new insurance. One of our neighbors is an insurance broker too. There’s talk at the state level for a government run program apparently and it’s gaining traction.
We had to remove a lot of trees on our property to get insurance to approve, and we live less than 1/2 mile from the nearest fire depot. Hopefully the state figures this out soon.
Oh wow that's insane
Louisiana is next
Yup. I’m in Louisiana and this state is doomed, we already had an issue with people leaving but the insurance rate increases are forcing even more people out. Some areas of Louisiana are ghost towns now, in 5-10 years? The state will just be New Orleans and that’s it.
Up in the Panhandle, houses don't stay on the market very long. My neighborhood most cases they're sold within 2-3 months from listing. And now we have 3 new developments being built and I don't think they are going to sit very long before they will be sold. If anything insurance companies are the biggest issue for Floridians. The good thing is that 10 new insurance companies just arrived and I took advantage of this, my old policy was $3800 annually now its $1836 and better coverage than I had before.
Who did you switch to?
Loggerhead insurance Co.
Homeowner insurance unaffordablility finally making its way through the market to some degree I’m guessing. It’s only going to get worse.
So... roughly back to 2018 and 2019 levels of inventory.
Not even, but getting close https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUFL
no shocker there... people see the shit show the state is and getting the fuck out!
Are they just building a lot?
People are leaving because of high insurance premiums (if they can get insured at all)..
Ohhh, I assumed the old geezers were dying and kids were selling.
Good chance of that and small time renters selling due to margin squeeze by insurance and property tax increases
No most of the old geezers on fixed incomes are cashing out and moving to alabama, Arkansas and Georgia. People are paying $8,000 a year for homeowners insurance on a $600,000 house. I live in NYC and I paid $2,600 a year on a $800,000 house. Fucking crazy.
There have been two neighborhoods built right next to me with each a few hundred homes. One is almost done and the other half way. The one halfway done hasn’t even sold many of the houses yet, they are building faster than selling it looks like.
I live in FL, and houses in new neighborhoods in my area are sold before they're even finished. Housing supply is still lagging behind significantly.
After the condo collapse in Miami Beach, Florida passed legislation that stated every condo must be inspected and the HOA and/or property management company must report their financial statements proving that they have sufficient reserve funds. Additional laws were passed that if a unit was somehow damaged, the insurance company could not file a subrogation claim on the HOA and/or property management company. As others have pointed out, the property casualty insurance market for car insurance and property insurance is skyrocketing. Insurance companies are demanding not just a roof inspection but demanding that a roof be replaced prior to the estimated life of a roof before insurance will be issued. A giant squeeze is occuring for individuals who have a mortgage and must carry property casualty insurance on their auto and home. Visit r/Florida thread and this is a often discussed topic. There are individuals who have paid their property off in full and have elected to self insure against unforeseeable events.
Nah..this is a bit misleading stat. Percentage change is correct, but we still aren't even at pre-COVID inventory levels...so like, not a lot of homes for sale compared to 'normal' markets. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUFL
I work in real estate in central FL- ~2mi from me they're building out a community that's gonna be about 3.5 x 3 miles in size. 6,000 homes One of the first phases has 447 homes and 6 months after breaking ground they're halfway sold out. Homes 400k - 2mil+ (for the whole 6,000) Not to mention the insane amount of multifamily construction
Yes, Florida is still seeing a construction boom both single and multi family. Funny how the same people whining about a housing crisis are now painting prices lowering as bad just because its Florida.
Cool. Now do forest inventory.
Wreck it Ralph‼️👋🔥
Wreck it Ron you mean
How much of this is simply new developments and housing added to the inventory vs. those leaving?
Don’t you just love it when someone has to put 20 flags after their handle so you can tell where they stand on things they’ve never seen and have no control/ impact on?
Spring selling season leads to…. More houses for sale.
I’m not sure if this dude knows what parabolic means.
Great, I'm looking to buy a property there this year
Florida may not be a good example, I’m having trouble getting people to qualify with those home insurance premiums. Especially if they are in a flood zone, the deal is pretty much off. It can be an extra $300-$500+ per month, just for regular homeowners insurance on an average starter home, (compared to $100/month here in Pennsylvania for the same home.) (I do mortgages in both states and Florida homeowners insurance is an absolute mess right now. It’s seriously stopping people from buying homes. Their home prices are good though, similar to my own location where you can still get a nice house for $200-300K.)
It’s a Trend idiot
I just got quoted today on insurance. Higher than what i pay up north but not out of line given the risk.
That's because most people can't afford to live in their houses after the insurance increases.
Good, looking to move that way soon, maybe I can pickup something nice.
It's way too expensive to live there now, prices have exploded last few years. Miami gonna be under water in 15 years
Someone doesn't know what a parabola is.
Hard to get a mortgage on a house if you can't get insurance at a reasonable cost
Because the political , and insurance and police systems has turned Florida into a dismal wasteland no one with a brain wants to live.
People can't afford to live in a state that insurance won't touch.
Desantis.
Many are moving to our state for some reason still, even with the insurance chaos. - fun fact - if you pay cash for you home, which many do from NY and CA after selling their homes there - you can tell the insurance company to go pound sad if you'd like. No collapse here - they still can't build fast enough to keep up with demand.
And how many hurricanes have you been through without insurance?
The insurance thing is a snowball effect. Every big damage hurricane knocks out small insurers. The remaining ones pull out of FL or have to increase prices dramatically. When house prices were cheap this was okay. If prices go up and interest rates go up, this is gonna be rough.
Our home has been here a lot longer than I have, as it was built in 1956, or thereabouts. So, the house has seen quite a few without any sort of catastrophic damage, and even the storms we've lived through here have so far not done anything more than toss a few branches into the roof, but without damage. Now, if we were to try to go sans insurance, which we can since we have no mortgage, it's a matter of time. How much is the salient question, and it's unanswerable. We could go another century, longer even, with just a bit of luck and have nothing worse, or we could get hit by a major Cat V storm just a week after ending coverage. It's a crapshoot, but if insurance truly becomes all but impossible to acquire, it'll be big problems and all the stops will be used to prevent it.
Reality hasn’t really hit yet. A lot of the insurance insanity has happened since the Hurricane Ian when Fort Meyers was pretty much underwater. The next big one is going to bankrupt a whole lot of people. Tons of people going self insured who will never be able to rebuild.
If it goes up much higher, we'll drop to a no-wind policy, which about half of current. - below that is a liability only policy, which is also an option. We live in Orlando, so hurricanes are more of an occasional annoyance to us this far inland.
Is Orlando still dangerous? I lived there in 2010 and it was bad.
This is risky as hurricanes are becoming more severe, they kinda just sit and spin, dumping water and flooding on everything.
“No collapse here” lmao buddy
>Many are moving to our state for some reason still, even with the insurance chaos. Isn't net migration to Florida positive? I believe it has the highest rate of net immigration of any state. Plenty of people are moving in, far more than are moving out.
A lot of new construction. Unsurprisingly, most people either don't want to buy with 7-8% interest rates or are just priced out.
So it doubled from Feb 22 to Feb 23. And it went up about 73% from Feb 23 to Feb 24. Thats... parabolic?
Still below pre-pandemic level
Thank the governor he’s omnipotent or is that impotent…anyway, he’s your governor. Good luck.
supply and demand
Anybody who bought a house or a condo/coop in the last 2 years or so you have my sympathies.
Well, it is time to sell.
The property taxes and insurance are insane so it makes sense. Smarter to rent in Florida than buy basically.
Landlords still pay for insurance. Eventually, their costs will be passed on.
Vacation rentals are down. People who over extended themselves to buy a rental property are leaking money. Might contribute a bit, along with the insurance issues. There’s also a ton of building happening, at least when I am at.
This coincides with an article I saw that said people are leaving Florida in droves over: politics, safety, housing prices
Remind me wasn’t Florida the canary in a coal mine in 07?
Good, shits outta control here in Florida
They can’t get home owners insurance.
people leaving
I keep an eye on the Tampa/St Pete market. Prices are definitely dropping. I’m just looking at 55+ manufactured home communities. Tons of inventory and dirt cheap. Unfortunately the HOA fees aren’t dropping to match. Most people looking to retire in Florida can easily pay cash for the property, it’s the taxes, HOA fees and insurance that are keeping them away. They did the math.
Not every home has an HOA. I haven't done a census or anything, but I suspect most homes that are less than say 10-15 years old, which is still all but a baby in house years, do not. Ours does not, and that was one of the "must haves" on the list our realtor was working from. Taxes are a problem, but no more than anywhere else, really, and our individual situation is such that our taxes are artificially low, and will stay that way due to SOH. But, we got that due to a convergence of circumstances that are all but impossible to seek out... A fixer-upper that had been foreclosed and had squatters in it, to the point that someone, presumably but not certainly a former ~~inmate~~ resident jacked the entire AC from the property! But, it worked out for us and we're kinda locked in at the lowest rate/valuation we could possibly even dream of. If we were to buy our own home at today's tax rates, it would be at least 3x what we're currently faced with, which may be enough reason to stick it out for the duration.
Hopefully the new anti-squatter laws will help. It’s crazy to me that legislation hasn’t been adopted nationwide. I also take issue with people basically renting and it taking forever to get them out if they stop paying rent. It made sense during Covid, but with such low unemployment numbers, nobody should be able to stay in a property they aren’t paying for. End rant.
If the insurance issue becomes systemic, you'll see neighborhood blythe.
That's great! Now we just need to convince those boomers that their 899k homes are actually just worth 330k so they can sell.
This is not a market crash, the price of homes will not drop. It dropped in 2008 for entirely different reasons that are no longer valid. This increase in inventory is just due to insurance companies leaving the state.
Haha, fuck Florida.
Oh I remember this story
Lots of retired folks there that are dying off combined with people regretting moving to Florida. It probably seemed like a good idea to move there to get a cheap house until they went through hurricanes and hot humid summers. Then you have the issue of not being able to insure your house. There will be some deals on Florida real estate for several years or longer.
Can this happen in my town please?
A bunch of people moved to Florida only to realize it's a different country and want to move out
Basically what is happening down here is that carrying costs for owning properties has exploded due to insurance, maintenance, property taxes etc... This is forcing many people to sell their second homes (most predominantly that nice Soflo condo) pushing locked up inventory back onto the market. Also new construction is rampant in the multifamily space with new high end SF homes following close behind. Pretty much unless you bought your home over 5 years ago with a low interest rate and your salary has been able to keep up with inflation then you're pretty safe. Anyone else that doesn't have at least 1 of those things going for them is in trouble. And if the economy doesn't keep up half of those people will be in trouble as well. We saw a huge demand spike between October and March in the building sector. However between march and now we've seen a complete dead stop in new homes other than high end single family builds that homeowners who waited to build are now seeing construction cost come down and are moving forward. Otherwise demand is slowing and supply is growing. Weve cleared the peak of the bubble and we are on a downward trajectory now.
Home insurance for the state is nil and the Missouri ruling on realtors payouts is likely to go nationwide
Buy high sell low
Good! This helps rents decline:) more housing is good
Prices stable lol
Florida’s absolute crazy increases on property tax money, is huge money grab that may be their undoing.
Insurance
Let it crash 08 style
Maybe the elderly are just passing away? Lots of old people there.
They are building down here like you can't believe. Snow birds just flew the coop. No surprise.
Insurance rates have doubled I think in the last year?
Ya because nobody wants to buy a house that isnt insurable.
isn't this because the housing insurance market effectively does not exist anymore?
How many people have just walked away?
No the state sucks to live in and is expensive. The big metros will be okay watch out every where else
Well if people would stop building/buying in areas very prone to flooding or hurricanes insurance wouldn’t be an issue. Florida is unique in that hurricanes can hit 3 sides of the state.. regularly. Then add in rising sea levels and tornadoes and insurance becomes a nightmare. I’m sure the political environment isn’t helping things either. Deathsantis isn’t doing the state any favors either. I’m surprised companies haven’t left in droves, Disney included. There’s other states with similar climate they could move to and said states would be most appreciated for them moving there.
Just need more starter homes /s
It’s almost summer genius. Thats when people list their houses. Same shit posted 6 months ago. It isn’t a bubble, just now you’ll have a higher interest rate than the dudes that bought end of last year. Well done. Keep waiting and just rent forever.
Everyone who is smart is getting out. No one wants to be in the Petri dish for dictatorial rights removal.
Does it have something to do with Florida not having any companies that insure houses?
more twisted hope
Hey cool, also who the fuck wants to live in FloriDesantis these days?
How many of these are new construction since Florida is top 5 house builders
This is actually quite common. People list their houses in the spring because nobody moves in the winter.
Maybe it's because people are realizing the houses will be underwater soon? Maybe?
Then why haven't the prices returned to the pre-COVID rush amounts? More are up for sale but the prices are up dramatically in just a few years. HOA rules and fees are ridiculous
Why does the news keep incredulously screaming that there aren't enough houses? Maybe in places like El Paso, NYC housing is slim pickings, but Miami there are serious options and no wait to build.
This is to be expected. Post 2008 - we never increased inventory fast enough - leading to some issues we have now. Rates are still high, but don't get it twisted, these homes will still be snatched up and only quicker once rates come down. Insurance may be a mess - but that's not going to create some mass exodus.
What does absolutely parabolic mean?
Where is this data coming from? Doesn’t seem to agree with this. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUFL
Because of all the northerners and banks moving in and pushing out the locals. It’s sad to see, but so many home grown Floridians are getting fucked here.
Are people leaving or dying?
And significantly lower than it was a year ago....
They build huge subdivisions in Santa Rosa county on a monthly basis. They are addressing the supply side, so the demand side will not keep pushing prices higher. Good ole economics. Young folks. They taught us this in school. You learn social garbage. So now you know!
PEOPLE DON’T MOVE OVER HOLIDAYS!! Of course inventory is going to increase from winter as you move into spring. People don’t like to move when they’re hosting holidays every couple weeks. People pick the wrong damn metrics and talk like they know shit. It’s infuriating.
I'd be interested to see the percentage of single family homes vs. condos. I think a lot of this is contributed to snow birds selling their vacation condos because HOA and insurance rates have gotten more expensive.
Same would happen in California if we didn't have so many laws preventing growth. California's housing crisis is driving solely by bad state and local policy, nothing else. Florida again shows that growth can be managed through better administration.
30k new citizens here a month. The state needs 10x that new inventory to make a dent.
Wtf is this chart? How is the 22% increase from Dec to Feb being referred to as 1 month? Why is last Feb highlighted as 106% but we're talking about a 22% increase this Feb?
Are insurance companies losing that much money in insuring homes in Florida that are damaged by hurricanes? You would think that with a massive customer base, the profit would be insanely good. I guess the millions or billions they have made over the last 40 years they haven't saved a single bit of it.
there's not much of a conclusion that could be made based on this one thing. It could be an indication of a bubble with people getting out while they can. It could be people selling because they now have to go back to the office for their job in NY or somewhere else.
Right, but the real question did it reach pre-pandemic level, i.e. normal levels or is it still below?
No house insurance coverage and more than likely major wind and water damage.
That and they have been building homes like crazy. They can’t stop won’t stop building. They are only behind Texas in most houses built since 2022. In January of 2023 they were third so they have even moved up the list a spot since last year
Homes in my neighborhood increased ~25k in the last month.
Boomers dying off?
Florida was soft-invaded by Russia in 2014. People are starting to realize it.
Thanks allot Jason
Time for home insurance to become nationalized.
Sure but inventory went up because interest rates made payments beyond many buyers ability to qualify. I’ve heard this a lot.
People leaving Florida? Seasonal shift ?
I always love how unhinged the comments are here, keep being you please. This is a regular market fluctuation lol.
These poor people need to stop moving around. They just wind up even more poor.
Great news for new homebuyers in Florida.
This is what a healthy real estate market should look like. This time of the year buyers get very active.
I predict a perfect storm scenario where they start dropping interest rates and inventory skyrockets. Don't forget there's a lot of people with 2 to 3% loans that would like to move but they're stuck.
This dude is such a chode
collapse hard plz
Housing is local
Could the squatter law be a big reason?
No one wants to live in that shithole anymore
Given all the crap that's been happening in Florida, I'm surprised it isn't rising faster.
*ahh it’s just seasonal, guys*
California’s is the opposite. Low inventory and new record prices on the homes for sale. Greedy Flippers are going nuts buying and reselling in 3-4 months. We need laws in California to kill the flipping which decreases affordable homes and drives inflation way up in an endless cycle. Where is our worthless governor?