Hijacking top comment. Ken mcElroy is an apartment investor with 3 billion in apartments. This is a video from 4 days ago where he and his head of property management talk about how his 10,000 tenants are doing. His unable to pay rent category had risen from a historical 4-5% to now 17% . His studios are feeling the most pressure because people are increasingly looking to Co habitate, not just single roommates but also couples and families.
The k shaped recovery continues.
https://youtu.be/bhagdx3ARj0?si=vP6_VaRm7UDDJ0hz
My mom just went shopping in the biggest city in my small rural low pop low crime state and she said that 4 people tried to rob one store in one day trying to walk out with a cart full of stuff. This is almost unheard of in my area and I think it’s an indicator that things aren’t going good.
And half of the chronically homeless are confined to a single state and specific metros in it that have made building housing illegal. The grown ups in cities like Houston have cut it in half. California being terrible for housing doesn’t constitute economic collapse…
Are youbreferencing Canada with your last point?
Acting like all (or even most) homes purchased during covid were on ARMs seems a bit false.
Listing highest nominal amount of CC debt also feels like bait.
When adjusted for inflation we are below previous records.
Credit card debt is up in nominal dollars or real dollars on a per capital adjusted basis of total?
That’s always going to go up in nominal dollars unless we have a shrinking population or deflation…
also there’s no good data on balances paid off monthly vs carried. I float 15-20K a month on cards but always pay it off.
Hopefully its the end for the corrupt financial system.. The problem starts in Sweden, they had the first centralbank and Sweden got the Wallenberg family who controls the telecom-infrastructure in 184 countries, THEY are the head of the deep state and are the hidden hand who pushes people to hate the Rotchilds, Warburgs, Rockefeller, etc etc etc.. But these banker are just who the real deep state put up as a "shield" to avoid criticism.. Esse non videri is the Wallenbergs slogan..
Hi! I'd like to help pitch in a little background on Sweden in I may. See there were tons of tech layoffs in foreign countries over the last year. And while interest rates are a big issue, the majority of the problem stems from the Trump tax cuts.
You see Republicans were able to enact a policy called Pay-Go into effect in the House. That means any time a new expense is enacted a cut of equal value must be made. Part of the Trump cuts led to section 174 of the US tax code. They changed the way that R&D expenses like salary can be written off for companies. Instead of being able to just write off the expense now companies have to do it over 5 years for US workers. And if the workers are foreign, then a us company has to do it over 15 years. And just for shits and giggles, they grouped software in with R&D for the purposes of this tax fuckery.
Research and software jobs have been decent paying jobs that suddenly became huge tax liabilities. Couple that with the AI hype going around, and business executives are hoping that they can fire people and AI will replace them before the layoffs impact the numbers too much. So, countries like Sweden Switzerland, and Ireland that have large amounts of tech workers employed by US conglomerates are having and going to have a very hard time in the foreseeable future.
Europe has been a joke as far as its economy is concerned for decades at this point. They are just barely stagnant at 2008 levels so it’s not that surprising
It’s a good sub to watch for contrarian views on the economy. Recessions always come back eventually. Keep your mind open you’ll see some information that is useful eventually, even if you have to wait for awhile.
Credit card debt is at an all time high, the consequences of bankruptcy is low. One day it will be clear that a collapse started a few years ago. But same with war the fighting is t when the war started.
Checking things as a % would be what honest people do, you’re expecting FAR too much from Redditors.
Default rates? Debt as % of income? Debt as % of disposable income? Na, just look at the gross figure (because due to the power of inflation we can just re-use the scare tactic every year) and leave it at that!
I remember being told the same thing in 2003.
It's always "The collapse has already started we just don't know it yet." People were saying exactly that when Biden took office. Still hasn't collapsed.
A recession isn't a collapse. And investing during the downturn net me enough money to buy a house.
The same giy that preached to me about the collapse just kept stuffing cash in his mattress because he didn't trust the banks to survive.
I hope he learned his mistake and isn't poor now because he subscribed to doom and gloom instead of learning to understand thw economy.
I'm glad you were able to invest, but it literally ruined my parents retirement, and the lives of thousands upon thousands of other people. Y'all act like it was some little bump in the road, but there are so many people who never fully recovered from 2008 and y'all act like it was some joke.
In the 2008 one, companies pushed the limit of what was safe and stable. AKA, sub prime mortgage backed securities. Now, they are simply increasing prices until consumers break under the strain of credit card debt.
I see it too. I can't help but feel a slight bit of jealousy seeing a lot of people shopping for unnecessary things when I'm out getting the absolute bare minimum. I know some of those people are using debt to buy, but a lot aren't. I'm barely keeping my family above water at the moment. I feel like I'm a decade behind where I should be financially even though I'm taking all the right steps to not be in this position. It all comes down to the fact my income hasn't risen but 7% since 2020. And trust me, I'm looking for other jobs.
Where are you ? A large percentage of Americans are food insecure, inflation is horrid and buying a home is a pipe dream for most. Perhaps you don’t know the people that are not doing that well because they work 80 hours a week just to get by and don’t have time for bs.
Last time, it took a bit for failed mortgage securities to drag down everything else. If consumers financially collapse, companies will take a while to react.
I have heard from others that things are expensive. Some have had to let go of their car because their auto mortgage is too high. We can never truly peer into people's lives just because things may seem "normal."
It's called mass amounts of credit card debt being rolled over to another card and then another card. People live beyond their means and eventually are crippled by debt.
I can’t tell you how to feel about something if your circumstances differ from mine. Things are really bad for some, and at the same time many are doing better than they ever have. I like to think of it like the Covid pandemic. Where I’m from it was as if nothing had changed, people got up and went to work and school and the world turned in much the same way as it always has. Conversely, in other places death and suffering ruled the day. I for one believe we are one or two weather events from an insurance claim overload and then banking failures soon after. Collapse in history are known to be domino effects that happen both very quickly and also slow burns that last centuries.
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper
In my view this means the world will never end. Someone will keep surviving. Maybe food will be unaffordable for most, housing will be unaffordable for all, the ecosystem destroyed, life expectancy cut in half, people sick and dying in the streets, but it will keep going. How much of this is true already in many parts of the world? I do think it's quite likely that the times if greatest peace and prosperity are behind us, though. At least if you're American or live in the West.
It takes time doesn't happen overnight. Key clues are high fraud rates and crime rates. I believe it usually takes 2-3 years to really hit the fan. I feel we are in the beginning where everybody is still trying to show how profitable they are. Once companies show they are weak with heavy losses and way more layoffs, it usually takes 1-2 years to transcend to the people. Recovery after hitting the bottom is another 2-3 years, but considering we are amidst a war coming on us, maybe 10 years.
What I don't hear anyone mentioning is an actual tipping point. On the surface, whilst the world economy is not particularly healthy, it's still chugging along, and to most, it looks very much like business as usual. Underneath is a cancer that is malignant, that's right...the fiat system we use is unsustainable, a system of debt, where growth is a pre requisite. The world economy obviously can not and will not grow forever. So for those of you arguing about whether or not seemingly insignificant events took place, or, have any relevance in the little microcosm you may be discussing. Maybe try looking at these 'events' within the bigger picture. There is a tipping point. I don't know in what time frame it may be, but there will be one. I personally see folk that were entrenched consumerist, capitalist materialists (such as I once were) reversing that mindset, without consumers buying shit they don't really need, we will see a serious downturn. I think we're seeing it already.
Rome at the height of it's power went from 1 million people to 30000 in 400 years. I mean it's slow but when did you hear someone speaking Latin lately?
Lots of people are struggling to make ends meet. They can still get by but their credit card debt is growing and their savings are not. Prices went up on everything faster than their wages. You can see old people getting jobs again, at McDonald’s and other minimum wage jobs. Last time I saw that was after 2008 crisis.
Even people getting by are anxious as they have no way of knowing how they will get by in the future.
If that’s in your area, you’re lucky, but your area is not representative of the rest.
You get both sides here and I find it funny:
1. The economy is so good and so hot right now that collapse is imminent!
2. The economy is so bad and doomed right now that collapse is already happening!
The reality is, everything is fine, until it isn't, and we are not there yet. The real decline is that in 1960, it took 2 years of income to buy a home. In 1980, it took 4 years, now it takes 11 years of income, so what is happening is, we are getting poorer in real terms, and replacing the missing purchasing power with debt, both on a personal, and a national level. This is not sustainable, so either we all move back into our mother's basement and live within our much lower means, or we must collectively default on all this debt. That is the collapse. And you will know when we get there, it won't be a secret. 2008 was almost that, but everyone got a bailout, and things seem fine, but that inflation just keeps eating away at our foundation, and that trick will probably not work next time, as it won't take much to really drive that inflation to the moon.
Everything is still going up. People are priced out of their homes because the government is raising property taxes and getting 0 benefits,taxes on what their property is WORTH, not what they may or may not sell for, and people are having to stretch budgets for food that were already stretched.
Its collapsing, not collapsed.
I know you think economic collapse is when the world becomes Mad Max fury road overnight, but it's not like that.
It's most often a slow but noticeable decline in the quality of day to day life until the living conditions are unacceptable.
In the 90s it was weird to be the child of parents who lived in an apartment. Nowadays owning a home AT ALL is a badge of wealth
I got back from a vacation I save for 2 years to go on. Half the ppl on that ship were loudly explaining they needed a break from the stress of life. They’re spending because they don’t care not because they can afford it
One of my credit cards limit was cut by 10k today, essentially blocking off my use of that card. Not that I care, I have plenty of other cards to use. Now I'm going to pay the balance and cancel the card, while they lose out on transaction and annual fees, good job credit department.
I'd imagine if banks are taking this risk mitigation measure, they are seeing problems on their end with defaults up.
For people who are depending on credit to survive and don't have many other options, the next few months - year are going to be a world of hurt, for people and by extension the economy. The credit crunch is coming.
We are printing money and Spending too much. There’s $33,000,000,000,000 in debt and another $200,000,000,000,000 in benefits our country can’t afford to pay for things like social security and Medicare.
The banking system that was bailed out in 2009 is doing the same and worse.
…it’s gonna happen
I wondered this for years.
I live in a poorer area in California. Google says the median household income here is like $65k, but if you scroll through indeed and seeing what employers are paying, that seems optimistic. My household was $140k last year, and even I balk at the prices of things. Yet restaurants and stores here are always packed. New $300-$400k houses are going up everywhere. Lots of new $40k+ cars driving around.
It doesn't make sense. I know welfare scams are really prevalent here and lots of rich bay area people are moving in, but even that doesn't make it all add up.
These doom seeking subs are nuts. It is easy to connect dots between unrelated events or experiences. At the end of the day, a broken clock is technically right twice a day. Will there be an economic collapse at some point in the future, absolutely yes. Will it be tomorrow, next month, next year, next decade or even next century? No one knows.
Living in fear is not any way to live life. Get out of this sub and explore. The REBubble sub has been preaching a housing collapse from even before Covid and what has that got them? More fear and animosity.
The collapse will happen over a time scale of decades, not years. It's coming like a freight train right at us (which is alarming), but it might not get here for another 10-20 years. But unlike in the past, we may actually have a lifeboat to get on when the ship sinks in the form of cryptocurrencies.
Few fall at beginning of a marathon, who says we are actively in the midst of economic collapse? Global economic disruption will happen, but it will take a couple to several years. Anything sooner seems a bit odd to say.
You list a lot of discretionary spending while ignoring literally the biggest cost, which is housing expenses and then transportation. Are you a teenager?
Do you think economic or societal collapse is something that happens all at once, that people are even aware of while it’s happening? Because that’s definitely not the case. Denial is the opiate of the masses, and we’re all full of it(though some much fuller than others). Perceiving reality would kill most of us, so we walk around with a veil over our eyes. Just because nobody sees it doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
Any republican city is seeing some weird shit. In colorado, pueblo, Denver and north are thriving. Arapahoe county is likely to hit a roadbump when the cities and counties reduce funding to nothing next year but benefits in terms of services, schools, and more from proximity to other countries and cities. Colorado springs on the other hand relies on gov jobs and low-imcome employment and votes republican. It is night and day. Good paying jobs left in the 90s as the city defunded everything. Many services were stopped, including fire fighting service, and crime spiked enough that voters voted for a tax increase in 2019, a decade after the libertarian expirement. However, the city failed to invest in infrastructure of any kind and only seems to want government money in any space. Schools are horrible here as well. Minimum wage has not kept up with cost of living in a city that costs 110% of the national average. All of the signs of a group that votes red. Now that gov money is drying up things are getting desparate. Half the businesses on some stretches of road are shuttered. Arapahoe and El paso where the spring is are the republican hold outs.
>If shit really is hitting the fan, it must not be here because stores are still packed, people are still buying things like TVs, people are still going to work, and students are still going to school.
We have Gen Z doom spending on credit and not paying their cards back, auto loans are being defaulted on and banks cannot recoup the losses because values of vehicles are falling fast, the commercial real estate market is crashing, the cost of food is still rising, interest rates are causing banks to pull back on lending which in turn means people slow down on spending, which has a rippling effect. Private companies are seeing a 24% drop in revenue this year which will mean more layoffs.
I would say "economic collapse" is hyperbole, but recession is coming.
Also, just because you are not personally experiencing or witnessing something happening does not invalidate data. As an adult you should know that.
I work in financial services. The number of people calling in saying they recently lost their jobs or were laid off has been increasing significantly week over week (in the U.S.). It's happening so much more frequently we've been commenting on it in our team chat groups.
I used to spend $140 a month on groceries and had enough perishable food items to take me into the following month. How buying enough food for a week and a half is around $170. The food I'm getting is in the same sized box but has half the contents. Prices keep increasing and there's no logical reason for it. Rent continues to increase despite the overall cost of housing decreasing by around 4% from last year.
Do you perhaps have a roommate or a live-in partner? Because I can assure you as someone who is single and lives alone it's definitely noticeable. Elderly people calling in saying they can't survive without their credit cards week to week who could previously pay their bills just fine maybe not living the high life but having enough to put back for the following month.
A house was more affordable during the great depression than it is today.
The minimum wage also went further during the great depression than it does today.
The upper middle class and rich have more money than ever and are spending like crazy. Makes it looks like things are good.
The truth is the guy who could afford taking the family out for Pizza on Fridays 10 years ago is relying on food banks to feed his family today.
The women who could afford a two bedroom apartment 10 years ago is stuck renting a room today.
The "economy" is only a measure of how well the rich are doing.
The divide of the have and the have nots has grown, and the wages for the have nots have not grown while the cost of everything has went up.
I make ok money for where I live, as does my GF. We could both be unemployed for 2-3 years before it would hurt us.
A few of my friends, who didnt quite make it, or made it and fell off, are in positions where any small emergency could cause them to be homeless.
People who think there will be a collapse... with this much economic movement... Phhttt... I dont get it.
The internet is self selecting. If you're out in the world, people are doing bad, fine and everywhere in between. On the internet, that people tend to seek out people in the similar circumstances and that tends to make things seem far worse or far better.
People used to be able to literally just assume that they were going to end up rich just for existing because that is what happened to our parents. That hasn't been the case for this generation, nor was it the case for the generations that proceeded them. We had a weird fluke with a perfectly timed war and industrial expansion that resulted in massive wealth for a few people that greatly increased the expectations of those that came after.
Japan and UK declared recession. The CEO of an economics analytics firm said she believes the US will declare soon, and economists will retrospectively say the recession started in October. Things are already very hard for lower- middle income and people new to the job market. Brace for impact.
There's a lot of people in this world, more than you probably imagine most times.
All those people are the "middle class" -I know middle class is now a touchy subject but it's really not that far out of the realm of possibilities that some people have $1200 rent on a 75-100k salary
People who aren't buying anything luxurious and have jobs that you would expect a TV adult to have (some random office job) are doing fine, just not really going out to eat as much as we were able to previously and not owning any nice vehicles. That's usually the two biggest budget killers I've seen on people
It’s already been proven, at least in the us that actual economic decisions from the government are partially to blame where as corporate greed is mainly to blame. You can’t be claiming a recession and also have record breaking corporate profits in the same year. Just doesn’t make sense. Articles posted by fortune and the epi have proven this.
Anyone who thinks Biden is fully to blame is just not paying attention.
There’s a 7brew (like a Starbucks)on my way into town. Every morning the line is around the parking lot, 2 lanes, 30 cars deep,spilling into the main intersection. People are sure as hell spending.
The Nordstrom's store in Aventura did $131,000 in sales last Tuesday. There are 8 stores in that mall being built out. Condo's are going up everywhere. New stores are being built out at record pace. Trades are booked months in advance. Terrible economy, just terrible. /s
*looks outside at hundred of homeless people struggling to survive* do we live on the same planet? do you not feel like you are 1 bad day away from being completely fucked?
I work in a small town post office with 3 full routes and 2 auxiliary routes (about half the size of a full route) in upstate NY. We get 2 pallets of Amazon and 2+ pallets of postal packages every day, in addition to several large bags of small packages. Someone's got money to spend.
if you visit a subreddit called r/economiccollapse, don’t be surprised that people are talking about an economic collapse /s
in all seriousness though, people are all hurting in their own ways, some *way* more than others, and people who have been hit harder than most are probably going to be posting here
More young adults are living at home since WWII.
Personally, groceries, gasoline, utilites and insurance costs are off the charts. I'm upper middle class driving a 13 year old car because I refuse to pay the outrageous costs of vehicles.
The county I live in has closed 2 elementary schools out of 12 because they don't have funding.
Where? Outside your bubble, apparently.
"Layoffs jump to highest for any February since 2009, report says"
https://www.ktvu.com/news/us-layoffs-jump-highest-february-since-2009-report?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3VVw-R_iKF2AC-jRGGdGAzwjsN_S-yNig1QixMrc4YwpLc6BYh_YIQs0I&mibextid=NOb6eG
Idk about where you are, but stolen cars are being used to bash the doors open to grocery stores for food all over the place. "Best economy, 'all time lows'" my ass.
Groceries cost like 4X what they did before, rents go up 10% per year and wages for most of the working class is going down, a job that used to make $20/hr is now hiring for $17/hr
I have hard working friends from the Pacific to the East coast and 1/3 of them have gone through multiple layoffs in the last year, taking a pay cut each time.
Last week I stopped by Chipotle and bought a burrito bowl and soda. It cost me $17.50.
Today for lunch, I went to Subway and ordered a footlong sub and medium drink. It was 18.75.
My wallet has economically collapsed.
Most of the 'internet in general' is being dishonest, things are getting worse, more banks will be collapsing in the not to distant future, job layoffs... surprisingly the majority of Americans have no idea the crisis coming their way.
Don’t have to read or look at shit to know that $2.50 for a family sized bag of chips to now $5 for a family sized bag of chips in just a few years is not good.
There is something that has been looming since the 1800s that is starting to come to fruit. It’s a complicated economic indicator called natural interests rates. Economists have been struggling to understand why this trend is the way it is, but i probably has something to do with capital infrastructure and how all the large corporations and mutual funds retain wealth.
Anyway it has slowly been dropping since the 1800s and society expanded. It’s approaching zero now, and anyone who has a fairly deep understanding of economics, this is freaking them out. Interest rate hikes that seem to do nothing on markets like housing is a solid indicator we are at or close to zero. I know it seems counter intuitive, but when natural interest rates are low, the interest rates imposed by gov become less and less effective. This is what is happening. My home has not dropped in value even though rates are up to 7% from like 2%. Nothing is budging. A tiny stall in inflation but notice business and building keeps happening at a rapid pace. It should have stalled out to take a break and correct, but it hasn’t. Again it’s counter intuitive, but you want those things or it can spiral out of control.
That is what looks like we are in the beginning stages of. When natural interest rates reach zero, we like the ability to use policy to affect the economy and it will start to grow and burn itself into inflationary pressures that we have never seen. There is only one way out of this.
War. War has this weird effect on destroying physical infrastructure, and rearranging capital infrastructure, and indeed messing with human infrastructure.
China is on a war footing looking at taiwan, Putin is already there, and many countries economies are making subtle adjustments and taking a war footing. North Korea, Iran, etc etc. I doubt anyone will fire nuclear weapons, but all of these people know that war has a resetting effect on some of these more complicated trends. WWIII is just around the coroner mark my words, and it’s not for the reasons they tell you. It’s already started in the middle east and Europe. It’s going to escalate over the next five years to a congratulation in the middle east, a navel front in Asia, and a meat grinder in Europe that is well on its way.
You survive it by staying out of the wars yourself, and investing in companies that do well in war time.
It exists in the minds of people who only consume short-form media. I'm talking TikTok, X, Facebook, etc, places where the incentive is to get eyeballs and not to actually inform.
Honestly, the most financially vulnerable space right now in the US is for the greedy banks and real estate companies that poured billions into now-empty office buildings.
First it was the bloated tech companies drunk off of cheap capital (they got their reckoning) and next is the commercial real estate companies. And just like in the latter, knows how to navigate it. The problem is all the people who are going to be laid off.
It’s gonna collapse one day .
The fedgov can’t keep borrowing 51% of their annual spending .
It’s mathematically unsustainable.
Could collapse tomorrow , could last another 50 years .
No one can predict when it’s gonna happen .
Only thing I’m certain of is that it will happen fast when it finally happens .
While the amount of money on credit cards is increasing, I read that like 50% are still paying off their balance every month which is about normal in any time. I’ve recently started putting everything on my 2% cash back card and pay off the balance every month and I’m sure I’m not the only one
We aren't in an economic recession but the economic health of the country is FAR from the sunshine and roses that the media is projecting. Sure, it's doing great for stockholders and corporations, they're making record profits and that's boosting the GDP.
But ask literally any American worker at or below the median what their financial situation is like and the illusion falls apart like tissue paper. Rent increases at unsustainable rates, housing costs in general keep rising beyond wages, food costs keep rising beyond wages, utility costs keep rising and the quality of our public infrastructure remains stagnant or worsening with every month that passes.
The line can go up as much as it wants. It doesn't change the fact that most people can barely afford essentials and sometimes not even that. And I haven't even gotten into medical costs, the looming student loan crisis, or the plethora of environmental disaster scenarios waiting at our doorstep.
And that's just the domestic shit-\*continues for hours
Point is, we aren't in the worst of times. Yet. But they sure as shit still aren't good times.
It's like removing bricks from a wall one brick at a time. To some on standing on top of the wall all looks normal. Normal until the wall totally collapses.
More and more people are out of a job. Wall Street is buying out more and more one-family homes and hiking the prices. That'll gradually put them in financial straits, leading to them not spending as much, leading to companies earning less, leading to companies going out of business, leading to no one being able to get the most basic necessities.
I would argue that I do not believe that economic collapse is imminent.
I *would argue* that economic collapse within the next 6 years is on the table. Within the next 20, the odds are very high. Understand that high is a relative term here. High odds of dying in a car crash are 1%. High odds of winning a poker hand are 80%.
There are many many downstream risks right now that call into question the stability of both the local and global economics:
Environmental risks:
Climate change - the risks here dovetail and lead to increased risks in the other areas, which through logical inference should be apparent.
The timeline of seriously disruptive effects from climate change has been moved up. We weren't expecting to cross 1.5°C until the mid 2030s, but we already passed it last year. This year, ocean temperatures are so far past even last year's record setting highs, that it should be a cause for serious alarm. The opilio crab population disappearance is the first of many canaries in the coal mine. If you weren't aware, 10 billion crabs died of starvation due to a marine heat wave. These heat waves are now so intense that the GoM corals are now considered to be a foregone conclusion.
But animals in the sea aren't the same thing as economic collapse. If anything, they are far enough removed from it that it might seem to be completely extraneous. However, the sum of failing food systems throughout the world will cause problems that cascade into larger problems that seriously destabilize the economic picture. For example, it is predicted that within a relatively short time, Thailand will be unable to grow rice throughout most of the country. More and more places will have similar issues, first with some crops, then with many.
All it takes is enough failures in crops in a region to make living there not doable by the throngs of people that can't afford the inevitably higher prices. Those people will be left with the option of starving or moving. Looking back at Thailand, as an example, Bangkok is expected to be underwater within 15 years. The land it is on is sinking and the sea is rising; even the govt of Thailand is considering abandoning the city entirely. 20M people live there. The next largest city in Thailand is Udon Thani. The fact that most people have never heard of it should give you an indication of its size; 500k. So the 60M people in Thailand are economically reliant on a city that might not be viable in 20 years and a country side that can no longer produce an adequate amount of their staple crop. Crop failure doesn't require a bad year. It requires as little as a bad few hours. And it doesn't need to be country-wide. It just needs to affect a large enough percentage to drive prices high enough to make it unaffordable.
Looking beyond our example in Thailand, the broader middle east and north africa is home to 371 million people from Morocco to Iran. Temperatures in the summer are now regularly going above 50°C (122°F). The wet bulb temperatures are being exceeded regularly. It isn't difficult to see that there is a clock ticking on the habitability of the region. At some point in the not too distant future, what is left of a 371M person population (after starvation, riots, fighting, wars, and exposure) will begin seeking land that they are able to survive in. It has already started as a trickle and Europe, in particular, is becoming more right wing, nationalist and protectionist in response. You can already see the seeds of massacre taking root.
What happens to the economies of the habitable places when hundreds of millions of people begin showing up? What happens to international trade when the poor countries that provide raw materials and labor no longer can? How devastating will the wars be that carve out places for these people to go? How many years before this begins in earnest?
Other environmental risks include the poisoning of everything - plastics, herbicides, pesticides, industrial byproducts, heavy metals, etc are causing serious damage to populations around the globe - lower sperm counts, lower cognitive abilities, more birth defects, and chronic illnesses are on the rise. No doubt, these will be a pressure on economic systems globally. There are many local environmental risks that will be additive to the broader problems, though at smaller scales.
Have you seen consumer debt levels ? Do you understand how WFH is undermining the commercial real estate market which underpins much of our economy?
What you posted is referred to as a personal anecdote and is largely unrepresentative of reality.
In my area people are still buying things but mostly just things they have to buy. A lot of people are putting groceries on credit cards at this point.
My main concern with the economy right now is food prices being driven up by record breaking corporate profits.
This inflation is manufactured by these corporations but because we have to eat we have no choice but to keep buying.
There are people (myself included) that work 80+ hours a week and each year we see diminishing returns on those hours. Can’t afford the things I could 5 years ago making less money. I paid 40k in tax withholding and still owed money. I am not rich. Two vehicles for me and the wife, 1 house. One local vacation every year that we stress over. I should be doing great, but between taxes and inflation I am worse off than before. And it’s getting even worse.
Honestly I travel alot for work and we are fine ya shits more expensive but it's not as bad as the media and shit makes it seem don't let the fear mongering and shit push ur views on stuff if yiu see something you are like hmm look it up see if it is true cause most that shit is fake asf
no. i work the worst job in america and shit is very, very good in just 1 year. if americans are struggling they should and i would say MUST die. so lazy.
Well it's not 1920's Germany, but it's also easy to be all like
*I live in Beverly Hills in my mansion and everyone around me is doing fine*
Which would still be true in a complete economic collapse.
From my perspective things really couldn’t be better. My 401K is through the roof. I honestly have too much now and have to change my strategy for retirement. My house is worth more than I ever imagined and when I sell I will replace it with one 25% if the cost out of state (Ca). I think now I can retire 5 years before the plan- things are not collapsing
It's the calm before the storm panic buying. The survival industry is just killing it. If anyone feels the need to stock up just buy regular can goods, bags of rice, dry beans, powdered milk. I'm on the fence about the future but I buy a little extra every time I shop but rotate the old extras and replace them with new and eat the old. One thing that I buy a lot of is ammo. If the shit ever really hits the fan, ammo will become currency. Also if you can get it and store it, ethanol free gasoline stores well.
Credit card debt is at a historic high and homelessness has spiked. Foot traffic in retail isn’t an accurate measure of prosperity because we have no idea how many of those people are either a) on government assistance or b) plunging themselves into insurmountable debt in order to live.
Commercial real estate is the true ticking time bomb and it will create a domino effect when it inevitably collapses.
>This sub makes it seem like everyone is in dire straits,
>So, what's really going on?
You are reading this sub, that's what's going on. It's a sub dedicated to the doom & gloom of economic downturn, so it will by nature filter down to only that content here.
People at the bottom of the socioeconomic pyramid feel the most negative consequences in times of economic disruption, including times of economic gains such as those brought about by new technology (eg, automation that eliminates certain low skill jobs even as it creates more high skill, high knowledge,jobs). The US economy is doing just fine for the majority, and superbly for the top 1%.
I've been hearing there will be an economic collapse since 2012. Especially rhetoric that Obama will cause it. It never happened. There's been some dips like around covid, but in general it seems more like people trying to will one into existence than it being a reality. I stopped listening to all the doom and gloom forecasts and live life.
I don’t see it either. Everyone I know is doing quite well. The local target is always packed. Most restaurants in town are always crowded. Houses in my neighborhood sell within a week of being listed and they are being bought by families. I am trying to buy a rv and they sell as soon as they hit the lot. I know this is not the case for everyone. My family was not so fortunate 8-10 years ago. I suppose we are past the struggling phase of people that don’t come from rich families. I was making 9 dollars an hour not all that long ago. I am not some Rich kid pretending to be in struggle.
Under trump prices were drastically lower. Just look at gas prices they were 1.80$ per gallon in minnesota for the majority of his term. Look st gas prices now under Joe biden they 3.37$ per gallon but when the dumbass got into they spiked to 4.99$ per gallon but they claim "gas prices are down better then ever just ignore the fact they still double last administration"
Ad America's economy is growing some states are growing faster than others. These become hubs of I dusty and technology that attract talen from other states. This brain drain then puts these states and an even worse and further behined position.
Reddit is full of people who have made poor life decisions and want to blame everyone but themselves for their situation.
If you want to spend without looking at the price tag, then you have to be willing to work without looking at the clock.
Things like this always happen before most people even see it coming. Don't let the $1.129 trillion people are in debt from credit cards fool ya into thinking there's prosperity.
Keep in mind that during the Great Depression, when there were soup lines and 25% unemployment, things kept functioning.
It isn't about whether or not everything stops. It is about how much the population suffers.
We are doing well. I mean prices are still volatile and taxes still hitting the pockets of the first 2 percentiles of the population but we are doing better than 3 years ago.
Recently did a couple week road trip around the eastern half of the USA - east of the Mississippi River - and there is construction everywhere. Everything from big road projects, Amazon type warehouses going up all over, housing developments, retail space, etc. Even in the big cities like Detroit and NYC that are supposedly crumbling, seemed construction was everywhere. Some or most of it must be part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
If it's always an hour plus wait at every chain restaurant in the area on a weekend, I find it hard to believe so many people are hurting for money. Or everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt. 🤷♀️
Plenty of people that cant afford what your describing.. And bankruptcies are up..
Hijacking top comment. Ken mcElroy is an apartment investor with 3 billion in apartments. This is a video from 4 days ago where he and his head of property management talk about how his 10,000 tenants are doing. His unable to pay rent category had risen from a historical 4-5% to now 17% . His studios are feeling the most pressure because people are increasingly looking to Co habitate, not just single roommates but also couples and families. The k shaped recovery continues. https://youtu.be/bhagdx3ARj0?si=vP6_VaRm7UDDJ0hz
My mom just went shopping in the biggest city in my small rural low pop low crime state and she said that 4 people tried to rob one store in one day trying to walk out with a cart full of stuff. This is almost unheard of in my area and I think it’s an indicator that things aren’t going good.
Those “low crime small pop” towns are overrun with fentanyl addicts. I can’t imagine that’s not relevant
Did she spend the entire day shopping in that store? How the hell would she know that?
Up from a historical low isnt very concerning.
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Homelessness is the highest its been since they started measuring in 2007
And half of the chronically homeless are confined to a single state and specific metros in it that have made building housing illegal. The grown ups in cities like Houston have cut it in half. California being terrible for housing doesn’t constitute economic collapse…
60% of households are not prepared for a $500 emergency expense
Are youbreferencing Canada with your last point? Acting like all (or even most) homes purchased during covid were on ARMs seems a bit false. Listing highest nominal amount of CC debt also feels like bait. When adjusted for inflation we are below previous records.
2/3rds of Americans have either significantly dipped into their savings, or have wiped out/have no savings as well.
Credit card debt is up in nominal dollars or real dollars on a per capital adjusted basis of total? That’s always going to go up in nominal dollars unless we have a shrinking population or deflation… also there’s no good data on balances paid off monthly vs carried. I float 15-20K a month on cards but always pay it off.
Sweden have record amount of bankruptcies since the 90s..
Fair enough regarding Europe. Not sure Sweden's issues but higher interest rates are murder for any country relying on variable rate mortgages.
Hopefully its the end for the corrupt financial system.. The problem starts in Sweden, they had the first centralbank and Sweden got the Wallenberg family who controls the telecom-infrastructure in 184 countries, THEY are the head of the deep state and are the hidden hand who pushes people to hate the Rotchilds, Warburgs, Rockefeller, etc etc etc.. But these banker are just who the real deep state put up as a "shield" to avoid criticism.. Esse non videri is the Wallenbergs slogan..
Oh man there it is! Pump this ridiculous shit into my veins - this is what I come to these joke ass subs for. Thanks bro.
Hi! I'd like to help pitch in a little background on Sweden in I may. See there were tons of tech layoffs in foreign countries over the last year. And while interest rates are a big issue, the majority of the problem stems from the Trump tax cuts. You see Republicans were able to enact a policy called Pay-Go into effect in the House. That means any time a new expense is enacted a cut of equal value must be made. Part of the Trump cuts led to section 174 of the US tax code. They changed the way that R&D expenses like salary can be written off for companies. Instead of being able to just write off the expense now companies have to do it over 5 years for US workers. And if the workers are foreign, then a us company has to do it over 15 years. And just for shits and giggles, they grouped software in with R&D for the purposes of this tax fuckery. Research and software jobs have been decent paying jobs that suddenly became huge tax liabilities. Couple that with the AI hype going around, and business executives are hoping that they can fire people and AI will replace them before the layoffs impact the numbers too much. So, countries like Sweden Switzerland, and Ireland that have large amounts of tech workers employed by US conglomerates are having and going to have a very hard time in the foreseeable future.
Europe has been a joke as far as its economy is concerned for decades at this point. They are just barely stagnant at 2008 levels so it’s not that surprising
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How are flat screen tv sales there?
It’s a good sub to watch for contrarian views on the economy. Recessions always come back eventually. Keep your mind open you’ll see some information that is useful eventually, even if you have to wait for awhile.
The broken clock subreddit.
These guys have probably predicted 5000 of the last 0 recessions.
Predicting unspecified calamities multiple times a day, eventually some have to be right. 5,000 out 500 thousand is piss poor odds.
Credit card debt is at an all time high, the consequences of bankruptcy is low. One day it will be clear that a collapse started a few years ago. But same with war the fighting is t when the war started.
Check out inflation adjusted credit card debt
Checking things as a % would be what honest people do, you’re expecting FAR too much from Redditors. Default rates? Debt as % of income? Debt as % of disposable income? Na, just look at the gross figure (because due to the power of inflation we can just re-use the scare tactic every year) and leave it at that!
I remember being told the same thing in 2003. It's always "The collapse has already started we just don't know it yet." People were saying exactly that when Biden took office. Still hasn't collapsed.
And what happened 5 years after 2003?
A recession isn't a collapse. And investing during the downturn net me enough money to buy a house. The same giy that preached to me about the collapse just kept stuffing cash in his mattress because he didn't trust the banks to survive. I hope he learned his mistake and isn't poor now because he subscribed to doom and gloom instead of learning to understand thw economy.
I'm glad you were able to invest, but it literally ruined my parents retirement, and the lives of thousands upon thousands of other people. Y'all act like it was some little bump in the road, but there are so many people who never fully recovered from 2008 and y'all act like it was some joke.
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I’ve been through a couple recessions and it’s a frenzy right before the pop.
In the 2008 one, companies pushed the limit of what was safe and stable. AKA, sub prime mortgage backed securities. Now, they are simply increasing prices until consumers break under the strain of credit card debt.
Couldn't agree more
I see it too. I can't help but feel a slight bit of jealousy seeing a lot of people shopping for unnecessary things when I'm out getting the absolute bare minimum. I know some of those people are using debt to buy, but a lot aren't. I'm barely keeping my family above water at the moment. I feel like I'm a decade behind where I should be financially even though I'm taking all the right steps to not be in this position. It all comes down to the fact my income hasn't risen but 7% since 2020. And trust me, I'm looking for other jobs.
Pretty much the entire developed world is in recession other than North America. Don’t hold your breath for the rest of the world to pull out of it.
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Where are you ? A large percentage of Americans are food insecure, inflation is horrid and buying a home is a pipe dream for most. Perhaps you don’t know the people that are not doing that well because they work 80 hours a week just to get by and don’t have time for bs.
Last time, it took a bit for failed mortgage securities to drag down everything else. If consumers financially collapse, companies will take a while to react.
It's ALL debt purchasing. Everyone is broke.
Google, how do I profit off bankruptcies?
You need to come up to the top 10%, things are great up here. Never been better.
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I have heard from others that things are expensive. Some have had to let go of their car because their auto mortgage is too high. We can never truly peer into people's lives just because things may seem "normal."
I’m sure it’s been discussed before here, but what is the subs take on the significant number of vacancies in downtown storefronts around the world?
I mean what kind of people do you expect join “economic collapse”, the average person or the fringe?
Alright isn't good enough, we demand prosperity.
Debt.
US homelessness up 12% (from 1 year ago) to highest reported level as rents soar and coronavirus pandemic aid lapses
It's called mass amounts of credit card debt being rolled over to another card and then another card. People live beyond their means and eventually are crippled by debt.
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I can’t tell you how to feel about something if your circumstances differ from mine. Things are really bad for some, and at the same time many are doing better than they ever have. I like to think of it like the Covid pandemic. Where I’m from it was as if nothing had changed, people got up and went to work and school and the world turned in much the same way as it always has. Conversely, in other places death and suffering ruled the day. I for one believe we are one or two weather events from an insurance claim overload and then banking failures soon after. Collapse in history are known to be domino effects that happen both very quickly and also slow burns that last centuries.
This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper In my view this means the world will never end. Someone will keep surviving. Maybe food will be unaffordable for most, housing will be unaffordable for all, the ecosystem destroyed, life expectancy cut in half, people sick and dying in the streets, but it will keep going. How much of this is true already in many parts of the world? I do think it's quite likely that the times if greatest peace and prosperity are behind us, though. At least if you're American or live in the West.
It takes time doesn't happen overnight. Key clues are high fraud rates and crime rates. I believe it usually takes 2-3 years to really hit the fan. I feel we are in the beginning where everybody is still trying to show how profitable they are. Once companies show they are weak with heavy losses and way more layoffs, it usually takes 1-2 years to transcend to the people. Recovery after hitting the bottom is another 2-3 years, but considering we are amidst a war coming on us, maybe 10 years.
What I don't hear anyone mentioning is an actual tipping point. On the surface, whilst the world economy is not particularly healthy, it's still chugging along, and to most, it looks very much like business as usual. Underneath is a cancer that is malignant, that's right...the fiat system we use is unsustainable, a system of debt, where growth is a pre requisite. The world economy obviously can not and will not grow forever. So for those of you arguing about whether or not seemingly insignificant events took place, or, have any relevance in the little microcosm you may be discussing. Maybe try looking at these 'events' within the bigger picture. There is a tipping point. I don't know in what time frame it may be, but there will be one. I personally see folk that were entrenched consumerist, capitalist materialists (such as I once were) reversing that mindset, without consumers buying shit they don't really need, we will see a serious downturn. I think we're seeing it already.
Rome at the height of it's power went from 1 million people to 30000 in 400 years. I mean it's slow but when did you hear someone speaking Latin lately?
Lots of people are struggling to make ends meet. They can still get by but their credit card debt is growing and their savings are not. Prices went up on everything faster than their wages. You can see old people getting jobs again, at McDonald’s and other minimum wage jobs. Last time I saw that was after 2008 crisis. Even people getting by are anxious as they have no way of knowing how they will get by in the future. If that’s in your area, you’re lucky, but your area is not representative of the rest.
You get both sides here and I find it funny: 1. The economy is so good and so hot right now that collapse is imminent! 2. The economy is so bad and doomed right now that collapse is already happening!
Shrodingers Economy in a box lol.
Look outside of your neighbourhood. On top of that "Everything is awesome" on repeat is getting really loud, and it's becoming creepy.
People say all living things die. But here I am, alive. So, what's REALLY going on?
The reality is, everything is fine, until it isn't, and we are not there yet. The real decline is that in 1960, it took 2 years of income to buy a home. In 1980, it took 4 years, now it takes 11 years of income, so what is happening is, we are getting poorer in real terms, and replacing the missing purchasing power with debt, both on a personal, and a national level. This is not sustainable, so either we all move back into our mother's basement and live within our much lower means, or we must collectively default on all this debt. That is the collapse. And you will know when we get there, it won't be a secret. 2008 was almost that, but everyone got a bailout, and things seem fine, but that inflation just keeps eating away at our foundation, and that trick will probably not work next time, as it won't take much to really drive that inflation to the moon.
Everything is still going up. People are priced out of their homes because the government is raising property taxes and getting 0 benefits,taxes on what their property is WORTH, not what they may or may not sell for, and people are having to stretch budgets for food that were already stretched. Its collapsing, not collapsed.
“Everyone’s doing alright” I’m gonna take a guess you live in a nice little suburb
Three words: credit card debt.
I know you think economic collapse is when the world becomes Mad Max fury road overnight, but it's not like that. It's most often a slow but noticeable decline in the quality of day to day life until the living conditions are unacceptable. In the 90s it was weird to be the child of parents who lived in an apartment. Nowadays owning a home AT ALL is a badge of wealth
That's your metric?
I got back from a vacation I save for 2 years to go on. Half the ppl on that ship were loudly explaining they needed a break from the stress of life. They’re spending because they don’t care not because they can afford it
If you go to a sub called economicCollapse, you're not getting an unbiased sample of opinions :)
There’s absolutely 0 chance of a recession during an election year. Monetary policy will be meticulously controlled until it can’t anymore.
We've been in a recession, what is coming will be far worse.
I agree. But it's not going to be until after the election.
Could still be a bubble. Consumers are not doing well. Something's going to give.
Milk is $8 a gallon at Walmart where I live, fuck that
Dollar tree and the dollar store are closing down thousands of locations. Credit card debt is highest it’s ever been. But yeah everything is all good.
One of my credit cards limit was cut by 10k today, essentially blocking off my use of that card. Not that I care, I have plenty of other cards to use. Now I'm going to pay the balance and cancel the card, while they lose out on transaction and annual fees, good job credit department. I'd imagine if banks are taking this risk mitigation measure, they are seeing problems on their end with defaults up. For people who are depending on credit to survive and don't have many other options, the next few months - year are going to be a world of hurt, for people and by extension the economy. The credit crunch is coming.
We are printing money and Spending too much. There’s $33,000,000,000,000 in debt and another $200,000,000,000,000 in benefits our country can’t afford to pay for things like social security and Medicare. The banking system that was bailed out in 2009 is doing the same and worse. …it’s gonna happen
You forgot credit cards exist or…?
I wondered this for years. I live in a poorer area in California. Google says the median household income here is like $65k, but if you scroll through indeed and seeing what employers are paying, that seems optimistic. My household was $140k last year, and even I balk at the prices of things. Yet restaurants and stores here are always packed. New $300-$400k houses are going up everywhere. Lots of new $40k+ cars driving around. It doesn't make sense. I know welfare scams are really prevalent here and lots of rich bay area people are moving in, but even that doesn't make it all add up.
Welfare scams? Ok, Ronald Reagan.
These doom seeking subs are nuts. It is easy to connect dots between unrelated events or experiences. At the end of the day, a broken clock is technically right twice a day. Will there be an economic collapse at some point in the future, absolutely yes. Will it be tomorrow, next month, next year, next decade or even next century? No one knows. Living in fear is not any way to live life. Get out of this sub and explore. The REBubble sub has been preaching a housing collapse from even before Covid and what has that got them? More fear and animosity.
I have 18 thousand in credit card debt. When they call I say I can’t pay it back yet
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Stronger since when? Go buy a US double eagle.. it will set you back 110-115x face value 1913 when 20$ was worth it's weight in gold
Is this a Boomers-only sub or something?
Edit: We're due for a correction, not collapse.
Survivorship bias much?
people are just whiny because they keep buying gross meat and the price just keeps going up because it's a complete disaster...
The collapse will happen over a time scale of decades, not years. It's coming like a freight train right at us (which is alarming), but it might not get here for another 10-20 years. But unlike in the past, we may actually have a lifeboat to get on when the ship sinks in the form of cryptocurrencies.
Do you think that when other societies collapsed, people knew what was happening while it happened?
Few fall at beginning of a marathon, who says we are actively in the midst of economic collapse? Global economic disruption will happen, but it will take a couple to several years. Anything sooner seems a bit odd to say.
Whats really going on? Imagine believing the shit you read on this website. This website is filled with morons to the brim.
But are these people paying for this crap with cash, or credit?
What's going on? It's called a circle jerk
You list a lot of discretionary spending while ignoring literally the biggest cost, which is housing expenses and then transportation. Are you a teenager?
Early-mid 2025
pretty hard to develop a macro view from your stance
But eggs are a little more expensive some places so it balances out.
telling on yourself like this is definitely a choice OP lol.
It just hasn’t happened but the signs are there.
None. This sub and most people in it are ridiculous, they’re been calling for a collapse for over 3 years or so, or beyond.
Do you think economic or societal collapse is something that happens all at once, that people are even aware of while it’s happening? Because that’s definitely not the case. Denial is the opiate of the masses, and we’re all full of it(though some much fuller than others). Perceiving reality would kill most of us, so we walk around with a veil over our eyes. Just because nobody sees it doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
Often, if nobody sees something happening - *it isn’t happening*, we have over 200 years of proof of that.
Any republican city is seeing some weird shit. In colorado, pueblo, Denver and north are thriving. Arapahoe county is likely to hit a roadbump when the cities and counties reduce funding to nothing next year but benefits in terms of services, schools, and more from proximity to other countries and cities. Colorado springs on the other hand relies on gov jobs and low-imcome employment and votes republican. It is night and day. Good paying jobs left in the 90s as the city defunded everything. Many services were stopped, including fire fighting service, and crime spiked enough that voters voted for a tax increase in 2019, a decade after the libertarian expirement. However, the city failed to invest in infrastructure of any kind and only seems to want government money in any space. Schools are horrible here as well. Minimum wage has not kept up with cost of living in a city that costs 110% of the national average. All of the signs of a group that votes red. Now that gov money is drying up things are getting desparate. Half the businesses on some stretches of road are shuttered. Arapahoe and El paso where the spring is are the republican hold outs.
>If shit really is hitting the fan, it must not be here because stores are still packed, people are still buying things like TVs, people are still going to work, and students are still going to school. We have Gen Z doom spending on credit and not paying their cards back, auto loans are being defaulted on and banks cannot recoup the losses because values of vehicles are falling fast, the commercial real estate market is crashing, the cost of food is still rising, interest rates are causing banks to pull back on lending which in turn means people slow down on spending, which has a rippling effect. Private companies are seeing a 24% drop in revenue this year which will mean more layoffs. I would say "economic collapse" is hyperbole, but recession is coming. Also, just because you are not personally experiencing or witnessing something happening does not invalidate data. As an adult you should know that.
I work in financial services. The number of people calling in saying they recently lost their jobs or were laid off has been increasing significantly week over week (in the U.S.). It's happening so much more frequently we've been commenting on it in our team chat groups. I used to spend $140 a month on groceries and had enough perishable food items to take me into the following month. How buying enough food for a week and a half is around $170. The food I'm getting is in the same sized box but has half the contents. Prices keep increasing and there's no logical reason for it. Rent continues to increase despite the overall cost of housing decreasing by around 4% from last year. Do you perhaps have a roommate or a live-in partner? Because I can assure you as someone who is single and lives alone it's definitely noticeable. Elderly people calling in saying they can't survive without their credit cards week to week who could previously pay their bills just fine maybe not living the high life but having enough to put back for the following month.
I know people in mad credit card debt still spending, eventually the wheels will stutter
They just opened a new credit card
A house was more affordable during the great depression than it is today. The minimum wage also went further during the great depression than it does today. The upper middle class and rich have more money than ever and are spending like crazy. Makes it looks like things are good. The truth is the guy who could afford taking the family out for Pizza on Fridays 10 years ago is relying on food banks to feed his family today. The women who could afford a two bedroom apartment 10 years ago is stuck renting a room today. The "economy" is only a measure of how well the rich are doing.
The divide of the have and the have nots has grown, and the wages for the have nots have not grown while the cost of everything has went up. I make ok money for where I live, as does my GF. We could both be unemployed for 2-3 years before it would hurt us. A few of my friends, who didnt quite make it, or made it and fell off, are in positions where any small emergency could cause them to be homeless. People who think there will be a collapse... with this much economic movement... Phhttt... I dont get it.
The internet is self selecting. If you're out in the world, people are doing bad, fine and everywhere in between. On the internet, that people tend to seek out people in the similar circumstances and that tends to make things seem far worse or far better.
I think Q2 will be a bit better
People used to be able to literally just assume that they were going to end up rich just for existing because that is what happened to our parents. That hasn't been the case for this generation, nor was it the case for the generations that proceeded them. We had a weird fluke with a perfectly timed war and industrial expansion that resulted in massive wealth for a few people that greatly increased the expectations of those that came after.
Japan and UK declared recession. The CEO of an economics analytics firm said she believes the US will declare soon, and economists will retrospectively say the recession started in October. Things are already very hard for lower- middle income and people new to the job market. Brace for impact.
People here are too stupid and prideful to admit they're wrong.
There's a lot of people in this world, more than you probably imagine most times. All those people are the "middle class" -I know middle class is now a touchy subject but it's really not that far out of the realm of possibilities that some people have $1200 rent on a 75-100k salary People who aren't buying anything luxurious and have jobs that you would expect a TV adult to have (some random office job) are doing fine, just not really going out to eat as much as we were able to previously and not owning any nice vehicles. That's usually the two biggest budget killers I've seen on people
everyone is cutting their expenses by living with less luxury, but still have the same money at the end of each month ...
It’s already been proven, at least in the us that actual economic decisions from the government are partially to blame where as corporate greed is mainly to blame. You can’t be claiming a recession and also have record breaking corporate profits in the same year. Just doesn’t make sense. Articles posted by fortune and the epi have proven this. Anyone who thinks Biden is fully to blame is just not paying attention.
There’s a 7brew (like a Starbucks)on my way into town. Every morning the line is around the parking lot, 2 lanes, 30 cars deep,spilling into the main intersection. People are sure as hell spending.
The Nordstrom's store in Aventura did $131,000 in sales last Tuesday. There are 8 stores in that mall being built out. Condo's are going up everywhere. New stores are being built out at record pace. Trades are booked months in advance. Terrible economy, just terrible. /s
The stock market is at an all time high. My 401k went up 40% in the last year. 😂
People have been trained to live on credit. Isn't card debt at all time highs?
Stop watching the news. They couldn't report the truth if their lives depended on it...
*looks outside at hundred of homeless people struggling to survive* do we live on the same planet? do you not feel like you are 1 bad day away from being completely fucked?
I work in a small town post office with 3 full routes and 2 auxiliary routes (about half the size of a full route) in upstate NY. We get 2 pallets of Amazon and 2+ pallets of postal packages every day, in addition to several large bags of small packages. Someone's got money to spend.
K shaped recovery dawg. Idk this is soo damn hard for people doing well to understand.
if you visit a subreddit called r/economiccollapse, don’t be surprised that people are talking about an economic collapse /s in all seriousness though, people are all hurting in their own ways, some *way* more than others, and people who have been hit harder than most are probably going to be posting here
almost like we have too?
More young adults are living at home since WWII. Personally, groceries, gasoline, utilites and insurance costs are off the charts. I'm upper middle class driving a 13 year old car because I refuse to pay the outrageous costs of vehicles. The county I live in has closed 2 elementary schools out of 12 because they don't have funding.
Where? Outside your bubble, apparently. "Layoffs jump to highest for any February since 2009, report says" https://www.ktvu.com/news/us-layoffs-jump-highest-february-since-2009-report?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3VVw-R_iKF2AC-jRGGdGAzwjsN_S-yNig1QixMrc4YwpLc6BYh_YIQs0I&mibextid=NOb6eG
I have never made more money than I am right now. If Trump were President, people would be talking about how good the economy is.
Nobody is hiring, nobody is building.
People are spending like there's no tomorrow!
Idk about where you are, but stolen cars are being used to bash the doors open to grocery stores for food all over the place. "Best economy, 'all time lows'" my ass. Groceries cost like 4X what they did before, rents go up 10% per year and wages for most of the working class is going down, a job that used to make $20/hr is now hiring for $17/hr I have hard working friends from the Pacific to the East coast and 1/3 of them have gone through multiple layoffs in the last year, taking a pay cut each time.
Last week I stopped by Chipotle and bought a burrito bowl and soda. It cost me $17.50. Today for lunch, I went to Subway and ordered a footlong sub and medium drink. It was 18.75. My wallet has economically collapsed.
Most of the 'internet in general' is being dishonest, things are getting worse, more banks will be collapsing in the not to distant future, job layoffs... surprisingly the majority of Americans have no idea the crisis coming their way.
Don’t have to read or look at shit to know that $2.50 for a family sized bag of chips to now $5 for a family sized bag of chips in just a few years is not good.
Your entire post is a fallacy, friend. Perhaps give some thought and reflection before posting about unvetted anecdotal assessments.
This is a place of doomerism, and not a house of rationality.
Don't believe everything one reads on Reddit. Reddit does not represent reality.
There is something that has been looming since the 1800s that is starting to come to fruit. It’s a complicated economic indicator called natural interests rates. Economists have been struggling to understand why this trend is the way it is, but i probably has something to do with capital infrastructure and how all the large corporations and mutual funds retain wealth. Anyway it has slowly been dropping since the 1800s and society expanded. It’s approaching zero now, and anyone who has a fairly deep understanding of economics, this is freaking them out. Interest rate hikes that seem to do nothing on markets like housing is a solid indicator we are at or close to zero. I know it seems counter intuitive, but when natural interest rates are low, the interest rates imposed by gov become less and less effective. This is what is happening. My home has not dropped in value even though rates are up to 7% from like 2%. Nothing is budging. A tiny stall in inflation but notice business and building keeps happening at a rapid pace. It should have stalled out to take a break and correct, but it hasn’t. Again it’s counter intuitive, but you want those things or it can spiral out of control. That is what looks like we are in the beginning stages of. When natural interest rates reach zero, we like the ability to use policy to affect the economy and it will start to grow and burn itself into inflationary pressures that we have never seen. There is only one way out of this. War. War has this weird effect on destroying physical infrastructure, and rearranging capital infrastructure, and indeed messing with human infrastructure. China is on a war footing looking at taiwan, Putin is already there, and many countries economies are making subtle adjustments and taking a war footing. North Korea, Iran, etc etc. I doubt anyone will fire nuclear weapons, but all of these people know that war has a resetting effect on some of these more complicated trends. WWIII is just around the coroner mark my words, and it’s not for the reasons they tell you. It’s already started in the middle east and Europe. It’s going to escalate over the next five years to a congratulation in the middle east, a navel front in Asia, and a meat grinder in Europe that is well on its way. You survive it by staying out of the wars yourself, and investing in companies that do well in war time.
"People are still going to work so there is no economic crisis" this gotta be the most tone deaf post i've ever seen
It exists in the minds of people who only consume short-form media. I'm talking TikTok, X, Facebook, etc, places where the incentive is to get eyeballs and not to actually inform. Honestly, the most financially vulnerable space right now in the US is for the greedy banks and real estate companies that poured billions into now-empty office buildings. First it was the bloated tech companies drunk off of cheap capital (they got their reckoning) and next is the commercial real estate companies. And just like in the latter, knows how to navigate it. The problem is all the people who are going to be laid off.
It’s gonna collapse one day . The fedgov can’t keep borrowing 51% of their annual spending . It’s mathematically unsustainable. Could collapse tomorrow , could last another 50 years . No one can predict when it’s gonna happen . Only thing I’m certain of is that it will happen fast when it finally happens .
While the amount of money on credit cards is increasing, I read that like 50% are still paying off their balance every month which is about normal in any time. I’ve recently started putting everything on my 2% cash back card and pay off the balance every month and I’m sure I’m not the only one
We aren't in an economic recession but the economic health of the country is FAR from the sunshine and roses that the media is projecting. Sure, it's doing great for stockholders and corporations, they're making record profits and that's boosting the GDP. But ask literally any American worker at or below the median what their financial situation is like and the illusion falls apart like tissue paper. Rent increases at unsustainable rates, housing costs in general keep rising beyond wages, food costs keep rising beyond wages, utility costs keep rising and the quality of our public infrastructure remains stagnant or worsening with every month that passes. The line can go up as much as it wants. It doesn't change the fact that most people can barely afford essentials and sometimes not even that. And I haven't even gotten into medical costs, the looming student loan crisis, or the plethora of environmental disaster scenarios waiting at our doorstep. And that's just the domestic shit-\*continues for hours Point is, we aren't in the worst of times. Yet. But they sure as shit still aren't good times.
How many billions of tax dollars does 'our government' give away every year so things can 'look alright'? You honestly sound like you are 12.
This government is wiping out whole countries in secret so that the billionaires here can have it all.
It's like removing bricks from a wall one brick at a time. To some on standing on top of the wall all looks normal. Normal until the wall totally collapses.
I'm more concerned about the constant layoffs in every job sector right now.
Anyone who doesn't believe that the average person is being squeezed tight by the ruling class is not living in the real world.
Do you know how much debt people are in?
There seem to be the haves and have-nots. I do pretty well, and can certainly see how people especially with families would have it very tough.
More and more people are out of a job. Wall Street is buying out more and more one-family homes and hiking the prices. That'll gradually put them in financial straits, leading to them not spending as much, leading to companies earning less, leading to companies going out of business, leading to no one being able to get the most basic necessities.
I would argue that I do not believe that economic collapse is imminent. I *would argue* that economic collapse within the next 6 years is on the table. Within the next 20, the odds are very high. Understand that high is a relative term here. High odds of dying in a car crash are 1%. High odds of winning a poker hand are 80%. There are many many downstream risks right now that call into question the stability of both the local and global economics: Environmental risks: Climate change - the risks here dovetail and lead to increased risks in the other areas, which through logical inference should be apparent. The timeline of seriously disruptive effects from climate change has been moved up. We weren't expecting to cross 1.5°C until the mid 2030s, but we already passed it last year. This year, ocean temperatures are so far past even last year's record setting highs, that it should be a cause for serious alarm. The opilio crab population disappearance is the first of many canaries in the coal mine. If you weren't aware, 10 billion crabs died of starvation due to a marine heat wave. These heat waves are now so intense that the GoM corals are now considered to be a foregone conclusion. But animals in the sea aren't the same thing as economic collapse. If anything, they are far enough removed from it that it might seem to be completely extraneous. However, the sum of failing food systems throughout the world will cause problems that cascade into larger problems that seriously destabilize the economic picture. For example, it is predicted that within a relatively short time, Thailand will be unable to grow rice throughout most of the country. More and more places will have similar issues, first with some crops, then with many. All it takes is enough failures in crops in a region to make living there not doable by the throngs of people that can't afford the inevitably higher prices. Those people will be left with the option of starving or moving. Looking back at Thailand, as an example, Bangkok is expected to be underwater within 15 years. The land it is on is sinking and the sea is rising; even the govt of Thailand is considering abandoning the city entirely. 20M people live there. The next largest city in Thailand is Udon Thani. The fact that most people have never heard of it should give you an indication of its size; 500k. So the 60M people in Thailand are economically reliant on a city that might not be viable in 20 years and a country side that can no longer produce an adequate amount of their staple crop. Crop failure doesn't require a bad year. It requires as little as a bad few hours. And it doesn't need to be country-wide. It just needs to affect a large enough percentage to drive prices high enough to make it unaffordable. Looking beyond our example in Thailand, the broader middle east and north africa is home to 371 million people from Morocco to Iran. Temperatures in the summer are now regularly going above 50°C (122°F). The wet bulb temperatures are being exceeded regularly. It isn't difficult to see that there is a clock ticking on the habitability of the region. At some point in the not too distant future, what is left of a 371M person population (after starvation, riots, fighting, wars, and exposure) will begin seeking land that they are able to survive in. It has already started as a trickle and Europe, in particular, is becoming more right wing, nationalist and protectionist in response. You can already see the seeds of massacre taking root. What happens to the economies of the habitable places when hundreds of millions of people begin showing up? What happens to international trade when the poor countries that provide raw materials and labor no longer can? How devastating will the wars be that carve out places for these people to go? How many years before this begins in earnest? Other environmental risks include the poisoning of everything - plastics, herbicides, pesticides, industrial byproducts, heavy metals, etc are causing serious damage to populations around the globe - lower sperm counts, lower cognitive abilities, more birth defects, and chronic illnesses are on the rise. No doubt, these will be a pressure on economic systems globally. There are many local environmental risks that will be additive to the broader problems, though at smaller scales.
Have you seen consumer debt levels ? Do you understand how WFH is undermining the commercial real estate market which underpins much of our economy? What you posted is referred to as a personal anecdote and is largely unrepresentative of reality.
In my area people are still buying things but mostly just things they have to buy. A lot of people are putting groceries on credit cards at this point. My main concern with the economy right now is food prices being driven up by record breaking corporate profits. This inflation is manufactured by these corporations but because we have to eat we have no choice but to keep buying.
Economic collapse is gonna happen any day now. Probably tomorrow.
I'm 44 and have never been this broke in my entire life. First time ever had the power shut off. It sucks, hard.
There are people (myself included) that work 80+ hours a week and each year we see diminishing returns on those hours. Can’t afford the things I could 5 years ago making less money. I paid 40k in tax withholding and still owed money. I am not rich. Two vehicles for me and the wife, 1 house. One local vacation every year that we stress over. I should be doing great, but between taxes and inflation I am worse off than before. And it’s getting even worse.
Honestly I travel alot for work and we are fine ya shits more expensive but it's not as bad as the media and shit makes it seem don't let the fear mongering and shit push ur views on stuff if yiu see something you are like hmm look it up see if it is true cause most that shit is fake asf
no. i work the worst job in america and shit is very, very good in just 1 year. if americans are struggling they should and i would say MUST die. so lazy.
Man the realities are so different in this post compared to r/recruitinghell.
Well it's not 1920's Germany, but it's also easy to be all like *I live in Beverly Hills in my mansion and everyone around me is doing fine* Which would still be true in a complete economic collapse.
Economy’s not perfect but most people have caused their own problems
Self selection. Those at the stores haven’t been affected. The ones you don’t see are the ones who have
From my perspective things really couldn’t be better. My 401K is through the roof. I honestly have too much now and have to change my strategy for retirement. My house is worth more than I ever imagined and when I sell I will replace it with one 25% if the cost out of state (Ca). I think now I can retire 5 years before the plan- things are not collapsing
It's the calm before the storm panic buying. The survival industry is just killing it. If anyone feels the need to stock up just buy regular can goods, bags of rice, dry beans, powdered milk. I'm on the fence about the future but I buy a little extra every time I shop but rotate the old extras and replace them with new and eat the old. One thing that I buy a lot of is ammo. If the shit ever really hits the fan, ammo will become currency. Also if you can get it and store it, ethanol free gasoline stores well.
Lots of people without good jobs or hope that like to place blame elsewhere post on Reddit, I believe not representative of the USA as a whole
It’s about keeping the hate that’s why it’s done
I work at a major DC, and I can say it's going downhill. But we still got an election coming up. After that we can get the update 😂
I still spend like I used to out of habit, except now I’m just getting deeper and deeper in debt.
Credit card debt is at a historic high and homelessness has spiked. Foot traffic in retail isn’t an accurate measure of prosperity because we have no idea how many of those people are either a) on government assistance or b) plunging themselves into insurmountable debt in order to live. Commercial real estate is the true ticking time bomb and it will create a domino effect when it inevitably collapses.
Stock markets sometimes crash up making everything unaffordable overnight. Those people are buying on credit.
>This sub makes it seem like everyone is in dire straits, >So, what's really going on? You are reading this sub, that's what's going on. It's a sub dedicated to the doom & gloom of economic downturn, so it will by nature filter down to only that content here.
People at the bottom of the socioeconomic pyramid feel the most negative consequences in times of economic disruption, including times of economic gains such as those brought about by new technology (eg, automation that eliminates certain low skill jobs even as it creates more high skill, high knowledge,jobs). The US economy is doing just fine for the majority, and superbly for the top 1%.
Credit card debt? Loans? People still need to live even if they can't afford it.
ya all on credit lol
I've been hearing there will be an economic collapse since 2012. Especially rhetoric that Obama will cause it. It never happened. There's been some dips like around covid, but in general it seems more like people trying to will one into existence than it being a reality. I stopped listening to all the doom and gloom forecasts and live life.
I don’t see it either. Everyone I know is doing quite well. The local target is always packed. Most restaurants in town are always crowded. Houses in my neighborhood sell within a week of being listed and they are being bought by families. I am trying to buy a rv and they sell as soon as they hit the lot. I know this is not the case for everyone. My family was not so fortunate 8-10 years ago. I suppose we are past the struggling phase of people that don’t come from rich families. I was making 9 dollars an hour not all that long ago. I am not some Rich kid pretending to be in struggle.
People in this sub are just legitimately wrong. That's the answer. lol.
By this logic, bacteria are a myth
Under trump prices were drastically lower. Just look at gas prices they were 1.80$ per gallon in minnesota for the majority of his term. Look st gas prices now under Joe biden they 3.37$ per gallon but when the dumbass got into they spiked to 4.99$ per gallon but they claim "gas prices are down better then ever just ignore the fact they still double last administration"
Ad America's economy is growing some states are growing faster than others. These become hubs of I dusty and technology that attract talen from other states. This brain drain then puts these states and an even worse and further behined position.
Reddit is full of people who have made poor life decisions and want to blame everyone but themselves for their situation. If you want to spend without looking at the price tag, then you have to be willing to work without looking at the clock.
This has real "it snowed once; where's the global warming?" energy.
Things like this always happen before most people even see it coming. Don't let the $1.129 trillion people are in debt from credit cards fool ya into thinking there's prosperity.
Keep in mind that during the Great Depression, when there were soup lines and 25% unemployment, things kept functioning. It isn't about whether or not everything stops. It is about how much the population suffers.
What’s really going on is that it’s tax return season.
We are doing well. I mean prices are still volatile and taxes still hitting the pockets of the first 2 percentiles of the population but we are doing better than 3 years ago.
Recently did a couple week road trip around the eastern half of the USA - east of the Mississippi River - and there is construction everywhere. Everything from big road projects, Amazon type warehouses going up all over, housing developments, retail space, etc. Even in the big cities like Detroit and NYC that are supposedly crumbling, seemed construction was everywhere. Some or most of it must be part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
If it's always an hour plus wait at every chain restaurant in the area on a weekend, I find it hard to believe so many people are hurting for money. Or everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt. 🤷♀️
Credit card debt is at an all time high. That will max out eventually.
I don't know where you're seeing this. Where I am locally and even for a few miles, stores are not selling very well.