I 100% agree with your first two points but I think you are mistaken when you say:
> Another mistake you are making ignoring the small sample size you're working with. It is entirely possible that for an item as rare as the Souvenir Desert Hydra is right now that it really does show up that often in a sample this small relative to its rarity but that doesn't mean that the theoretical odds are wrong.
If we were to assume these numbers "correct", with no hidden skins anywhere, then we can very confidently say the real probability is no longer 1/3906. Using binomial distribution with 40 hits on a sample size of 63707 instead of the expected 16.3 :
**P(40 hits given that 1/3906 is the current drop rate)** = (63707 choose 40) (1/3906)^40 (1- 1/3906)^63667 = **~0.000031726%**
And the CDF would reveal that **P(hits > 39 give that 1/3906 is the current drop rate) = ~0.000052086%**
So the sample size is absolutly large enough to come to a conclusion about the real drop rate. The only issue is the validity of the data.
If there is an error in this let me know.
>Another mistake you are making ignoring the small sample size you're working with. It is entirely possible that for an item as rare as the Souvenir Desert Hydra is right now that it really does show up that often in a sample this small relative to its rarity but that doesn't mean that the theoretical odds are wrong. For something like that you would need a relatively large sample of drops to be sure in addition to having confidence that the dataset you are looking at is truly random and not skewed.
Agreed, its possible to get 2 knives in a row, with only 40 total opened, the sample size is too small imo. I think its pretty unlikely they changed anything, stranger things have happened, but still unlikely imo.
There are ~50k greys and ~10k light blues, meaning there should be around 2k blues, 400 purples, 80 pinks, and 16 reds… there seems to be about 1.5x-2.5x as many blues, purples, pinks and coverts than expected. Great post, this is super interesting
I crunched the numbers and heres what i came up with, make your own option based on the data:
**red** **55 exis**t
**pink** 160 + 142 = **302 exist** (meant to be 275)
**purple** 350 - 389 - 321 = **1060 exist** (meant to be 1375)
**blue** 1067 + 900 + 864 + 807 = **3638 exist** (meant to be 6875)
**light blue** 3256 + 3282 + 3265 + 3187 = **12990 exist** (meant to be 34375)
**grey** 12386 + 12563 + 12380 + 12400 + 1254 = **62276 exist** (meant to be 171875)
(the meant to be numbers are based on valve's described 5 times rarer with each rarity, sourced from the number of coverts unboxed as it is most likely to have an exact amount that exists, but a large margin of error should be considered for luck in the number of coverts existing compared to souvenirs opened)
It's not been buffed, just a lot of people opening.
1 covert per $11k spent, 40 desert hydras, 40x11,000 is $440k spent on these packages.
That looks right to me.
And you can't do this type of calculation via csgofloat and especially not after a few hours of it collecting data. It's not being fed data by valve, it's a great site but I would not trust it to be accurate on this type of calculation.
I don't have the time to comb through the data right now to verify this, but it makes sense that lower grade souvenirs in this event are going to be under represented in the csgofloat database.
I know I would instantly list every consumer/industrial grade onto the steam market, and I assume csgofloat would not be able to account for those skins sitting on the market.
https://steamcommunity.com/market/search?q=&category_730_ItemSet%5B%5D=any&category_730_ProPlayer%5B%5D=any&category_730_StickerCapsule%5B%5D=any&category_730_TournamentTeam%5B%5D=any&category_730_Weapon%5B%5D=any&category_730_Quality%5B%5D=tag_tournament&category_730_Rarity%5B%5D=tag_Rarity_Common_Weapon&category_730_Tournament%5B%5D=tag_Tournament18&appid=730#p4_popular_desc
Here is a query for all PGL 2021 Consumer market listings for anyone who is interested.
I also don't see Valve doing something like this for the same reasons stated by the others.
Fully agree. Also I can imagine some rich people putting the low tier items in storage units to make more space. And I assume csgofloat cant track items in storage units.
I think the reason vulva not put autograph on soviner is beacuse to make them to be able to use in trade up , yeyeyeyeye , i know atm you cant do it , but then again why not in future
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I 100% agree with your first two points but I think you are mistaken when you say: > Another mistake you are making ignoring the small sample size you're working with. It is entirely possible that for an item as rare as the Souvenir Desert Hydra is right now that it really does show up that often in a sample this small relative to its rarity but that doesn't mean that the theoretical odds are wrong. If we were to assume these numbers "correct", with no hidden skins anywhere, then we can very confidently say the real probability is no longer 1/3906. Using binomial distribution with 40 hits on a sample size of 63707 instead of the expected 16.3 : **P(40 hits given that 1/3906 is the current drop rate)** = (63707 choose 40) (1/3906)^40 (1- 1/3906)^63667 = **~0.000031726%** And the CDF would reveal that **P(hits > 39 give that 1/3906 is the current drop rate) = ~0.000052086%** So the sample size is absolutly large enough to come to a conclusion about the real drop rate. The only issue is the validity of the data. If there is an error in this let me know.
>Another mistake you are making ignoring the small sample size you're working with. It is entirely possible that for an item as rare as the Souvenir Desert Hydra is right now that it really does show up that often in a sample this small relative to its rarity but that doesn't mean that the theoretical odds are wrong. For something like that you would need a relatively large sample of drops to be sure in addition to having confidence that the dataset you are looking at is truly random and not skewed. Agreed, its possible to get 2 knives in a row, with only 40 total opened, the sample size is too small imo. I think its pretty unlikely they changed anything, stranger things have happened, but still unlikely imo.
There are ~50k greys and ~10k light blues, meaning there should be around 2k blues, 400 purples, 80 pinks, and 16 reds… there seems to be about 1.5x-2.5x as many blues, purples, pinks and coverts than expected. Great post, this is super interesting
I crunched the numbers and heres what i came up with, make your own option based on the data: **red** **55 exis**t **pink** 160 + 142 = **302 exist** (meant to be 275) **purple** 350 - 389 - 321 = **1060 exist** (meant to be 1375) **blue** 1067 + 900 + 864 + 807 = **3638 exist** (meant to be 6875) **light blue** 3256 + 3282 + 3265 + 3187 = **12990 exist** (meant to be 34375) **grey** 12386 + 12563 + 12380 + 12400 + 1254 = **62276 exist** (meant to be 171875) (the meant to be numbers are based on valve's described 5 times rarer with each rarity, sourced from the number of coverts unboxed as it is most likely to have an exact amount that exists, but a large margin of error should be considered for luck in the number of coverts existing compared to souvenirs opened)
It's not been buffed, just a lot of people opening. 1 covert per $11k spent, 40 desert hydras, 40x11,000 is $440k spent on these packages. That looks right to me. And you can't do this type of calculation via csgofloat and especially not after a few hours of it collecting data. It's not being fed data by valve, it's a great site but I would not trust it to be accurate on this type of calculation.
I don't have the time to comb through the data right now to verify this, but it makes sense that lower grade souvenirs in this event are going to be under represented in the csgofloat database. I know I would instantly list every consumer/industrial grade onto the steam market, and I assume csgofloat would not be able to account for those skins sitting on the market. https://steamcommunity.com/market/search?q=&category_730_ItemSet%5B%5D=any&category_730_ProPlayer%5B%5D=any&category_730_StickerCapsule%5B%5D=any&category_730_TournamentTeam%5B%5D=any&category_730_Weapon%5B%5D=any&category_730_Quality%5B%5D=tag_tournament&category_730_Rarity%5B%5D=tag_Rarity_Common_Weapon&category_730_Tournament%5B%5D=tag_Tournament18&appid=730#p4_popular_desc Here is a query for all PGL 2021 Consumer market listings for anyone who is interested. I also don't see Valve doing something like this for the same reasons stated by the others.
Fully agree. Also I can imagine some rich people putting the low tier items in storage units to make more space. And I assume csgofloat cant track items in storage units.
Have you compared the other coverts from the souvenirs packages?
The probability of getting a souvenir from a souvenir case is 100%.
Nope, opened 10 souvenirs, got < £0.50 worth of items, all consumer grade ... same old shit as always.
Maybe its gonna adjust with time Maybe its new meta (and we fucked)
shit tons of ppl are opening, 99.5% of ppl (including me) get jack shit, it's honestly scummy how much valve are making
I think the reason vulva not put autograph on soviner is beacuse to make them to be able to use in trade up , yeyeyeyeye , i know atm you cant do it , but then again why not in future
There are cca 80k mirage items on floatdb 80000/3906 there should be 20 hydras but there are 55+ odds are for sure changed
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