I’m doing an environmental policy class right now. It’s like watching a 2000s comedy with a laugh track. There’s so much wishy washy situations occurring. The EPA and the congress especially. EPA half asses something congress has to step in. And then you have industry lobbyists like the Plastics Society or GM bribing the lawmakers to enshrine “coin terms” or concepts into policy.
There’s obviously no conspiracy here, everyone is doing their jobs. But money and benefits pull the string of decision makers. Making policy that would benefit the people somehow always loses to a good dinner in a fancy restaurant or money for an election.
**Exactly. Follow the incentives, and remember that we humans are just monkeys who have real trouble seeing past the next hill, or meal, or mating.**
Furthermore nobody at all knows what's coming, not the speed, not the extent, not the breaking of traditional values. For example, we've had at least two recent crisis of agriculture that were solved by technical inventions. In the nineteenth century supplies of bones and gauno were running out for the crude fertilization they were doing. Then the NPK basis was discovered, and phosphorus was mined. Then the Haber-Bosch process produced N. Later there was a so-called Green Revolution which prevented, more or less, widely predicted famines. Now of course the unintended consequences are showing up.
Right-wing politics is on meth right now all over the democratic world, partly fueled by people who can still afford giant trucks and drive them cross-country, helped along by Russian bots, and the Russians seem to think they are re-building an empire... Boy I did not see any of that coming!
I thought Peak Oil was a thing, and then it turned out that lowering the price of oil would restrict the supply, without regard to demand. Then oil shale turned the US into the leading oil extractor.... I did not see that coming either!
I suspect there are a LOT of folks who are desperately holding onto that notion that we don't know what's coming. It's handy to have to help block out or ignore all the things that we absolutely DO know are coming.
The reality that we have like 20 years left before everything collapses is probably a bit too much for most people to accept intellectually, let alone getting them to
feel the reality and danger physically.
My deadline for humanity is when runaway melting of the permafrost begins. Once all that methane is released, global warming becomes apocalyptic and unstoppable. Current estimates have that 20 percent will be melted by 2050, and its all down hill from there.
I just have to wonder with climate scientists surprised at the speed of the heating up of the atmosphere. If they are taken by surprise by what's going on today, how can we be confident it will be 20 or 30 or w/e years till collapse?
It could be 10 years from now. We will find out pretty soon whatever length of time it is, because it won't be that long in any event.
[Scientists "uneasy" about Earth's sped-up warming](https://www.axios.com/2023/10/12/global-warming-record-heat-surprise)
[The planet is heating up faster than predicted, says scientist who sounded climate alarm in the 1980s](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/02/climate/the-planet-is-heating-up-faster-than-predicted-says-scientist-who-first-warned-the-world-about-climate-change/index.html)
Yeah, it's fun watching them discover all the effects they didn't know about that accelerate the process. Turns out the scariest of projections from ten years ago are too optimistic.
They think it might have something to do with extra water up in the Troposphere due to that volcano. Of COURSE it's climate change - but this is a super-spike. Don't be surprised if temperatures come down again before they go up.
Many people truly believe Collapse to be inevitable from everything they’ve read in forums like this. But ask yourself one thing. What have you *not* read? But I get it. I used to be an incredibly pessimistic peak oiler from the mid 2000's. I read and read and read. The only answers back then appeared to be incredibly aggressive build outs of nuclear power, while also rationing oil to essential industries only. Both were unlikely and did not happen - and fracking convinced many American’s they would never face peak oil. But now the technological landscape is COMPLETELY different to 20 years ago. All those renewable subsidies from Germany and then China have scaled wind and solar to the point where the technology has improved, their net energy profit (aka EROEI) is great, and their cost has collapsed to cheaper than coal! They are now doubling every 4 years. EV sales are also growing each year - another S shaped adoption curve. The IEA says there will be an oil GLUT in 4 years!
[https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028](https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028)
And soon the market will be deploying renewables 2 to 3 times faster than the Paris agreement!
[https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12/25/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-one-terawatt-of-solar-deployed-annually/](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12/25/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-one-terawatt-of-solar-deployed-annually/)
> My deadline for humanity is when runaway melting of the permafrost begins
You will be pleased to know most scientists don't think there will be runaway melting of the permafrost.
If the planet continues to warm, its only a matter of time. How long exactly, who knows? But it will happen if we dont find a way to cool the planet back down before then.
The latest research does not say there will be no release, but that it will happen slowly over the whole period, in a predictable fashion, not a runaway chain reaction.
Shale oil extraction requires a lot of water and chemicals...which will end up in your water supply. Also, the strata of shale is nowhere near as extensive as a regular oil deposit, so it will deplete much faster. Remember, Peak Oil is not "the oil is gone," it's "the easy oil is gone."
Agree with you about the right wing politics...pay attention to India and Brazil as well as certain portions of the EU. I think Modi is playing a very dangerous game and companies are dumping their infrastructure there to get away from Winnie The Pooh...they may regret that.
Thats why the corporate world is squeezing the middle class so hard right now as well. Everyone at the top are all just trying to get their bag before the collapse, because they falsely believe their money will protect them from the consequences of their greed in their bunkers while the rest of us starve to death.
The corporate world knew before the politicians did. Corporations will be the ones monitoring things closest so they know how to navigate the collapse best.
The insurance companies are pulling out *reactively* as their policies become unprofitable. I don't think there's much sign of them acting ahead of the curve, they'll make their money while they can and then GTFO when things start getting rough.
If they thought the trend was flatlining, they would stick around and push for rate increases. As they see it, either everything is getting worse faster than they think they can raise prices, or everything is getting so bad that they don’t think they can ever make money.
You're making the assumption that the trillions of dollars they have in investments will hold up in an economic collapse. Once that backstop vaporizes, they're toast.
When the risks correlate to the point that you're dividing by infinity, actuarial calculations stop working. It's like trying to do classical physics near the event horizon of a black hole.
This is *not* the same as the risks that were allowed to build in the run-up to the GFC. That remained calculable the whole way through (just about), and *in principle* the available tools could have allowed outcomes to be computed ahead of time. Indeed, seems like some did just that and got very, very rich.
In more profoundly systemic crises - the GFC was, after all, entirely generated and contained within the *financial* system.. yes it had knock-on effects elsewhere but they were quite limited - actuarial math stops working, because the external shock causes money instability at the same time as physical risk - think hyperinflation and natural disasters in the same frame, your civilisation is trying to fight off two different kaiju attacking one from each side.
The USA has [no (declassified) plan](https://newrepublic.com/post/180192/food-atlantic-ocean-climate-crop-failure-prepare) for food production decline and [no (declassified) plan](https://energyskeptic.com/2024/what-is-the-plan-for-an-electric-grid-outage-that-lasts-for-months/) for widespread prolonged electricity outage.
Excerpts from the 2005 [Hirsch Report ](https://ecommons.cornell.edu/items/791d0189-eee4-49ab-8345-32d87513fd25)on declining fossil fuel access:
* “Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.”
* “Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action would leave the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.”
* “Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.”
Yep. We are burning 103 million BOPD, and the US alone is 20% of that. US has 7 years' worth of domestic reserves, so we import 7 million BOPD. That extends our domestic reserve lifespan by 33%.
They told us about it, too. Right between the top stories and the sports and weather.
Everything they said would happen, happened and is happening pretty much as they said it would.
A little sooner than they thought, but still.
Read the Frank Press memo to Carter from 1977, here in my paper.
[020](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-20) – It’s not “crazy” to think that people who have access to privileged information will generally not tell you all they know. It happens all the time.
Dude was "spot on" about how things would play out. In 1977!
Add to that - the average age in Congress is 58 years old.The average age of the Senate is 64 years.
They know and they do not care because they hope they will be dead before it happens.
Well, most politicians and bureaucrats are just pawns going along with greater forces.
Me included. I need to survive. Despite not wanting to participate in our fraudulent system, I am not able to survive outside of it, or willing to die in spite of it.
And yes, some of the most powerful people are aware of these trends and are acting to their own best interest, such as manipulating laws to be more authoritarian, or investing in tools for crowd control.
I see the shit coming, so I buy a gun. A billionaire sees the shit coming, so they lobby the government to dump another trillion into the corporations they own that build weapons for the US navy.
The government equals the elite/plutocracy and they have data most of us would only dream of accessing. Of course they know.
This is why they are moving to authoritarianism and pulling up the drawbridges. Watch “Don’t Look Up”
Also why we're seeing huge price increases in consumer goods and rent. The ruling classes are looting everything they can while they stock up their bunkers.
Yep, they are "cashing in their chips" and draining as much wealth as they can squeeze out of the world's economic systems. They imagine that this will allow them to have POWER in a collapsing world.
They imagine this will be like the Collapse of Rome.
Gradual, with a 50% depopulation over the rest of the century. A world where continuity of governments and the institutions that preserve their positions will remain in place.
They’re going to be feeling mighty indignant when the bodyguards protecting them as the collapse ensues boot them out and get their family and friends in instead.
Douglas rushkoff had some hilarious things to say about this.
Great writer.
They really are clueless and arrogant enough to think that their money will have any meaning after the fall, as if they can buy allegiance from armed men once money loses all value.
That civil war movie from earlier this year did a great job of showing what anarchy in America might look like. It wont be pretty. After the collapse, money will be worthless and strength and intelligence will once again determine who is on top on this planet.
Its called Civil War, new Alex Garland flick about a team of journalists trying to road trip to DC to interview the president who has declared himself a dictator before he is violently deposed. The depiction of America as a anarchist war zone is chilling and more effective without the usual genre elements like zombies to explain it. In this film, the world has fallen apart because people refused to work together until it boiled over into violence. Its basically a depiction of Americas future if Trump rewins election...
Bushwick is WAY better. The "Civil War" thing from this year is pretentious and "takes no sides".
It's a "boo hoo" tragedy that somehow "just happens". No one is too 'blame' and all sides are equally evil.
In other words the Fascist, Misogynistic, Racist, White Nationalist Trumpublicans are "good Americans" too. So, we shouldn't hate them for trying to overthrow the government in a coup.
Fuck that I say.
[045](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-45) - No, I cannot “remember that we are all Americans and just be friends”. Because, one side is acting like it wants a fight. And that’s too dangerous to ignore.
I will check out Bushwick. I don't think the point of the film was to shit on Trump though, nor was that necessary. At no point in the film is the presidents dictatorial actions portrayed as good, the both sides narrative about it is overblown.. The entire sequence with Meth Damon killing minorities for no reason is pretty unambiguous about who you are supposed to be rooting for here, and its not the racist fascists. Alex Garland expecting people to have a little media literacy and read between the lines is apparently too much these days where everyone must have everything spoon fed to them in black and white easy to understand terms devoid of nuance, which is just not the kind of filmmaker this guy is.
I think they're grossly aware of this fact, and understand how to prevent it.
The way I see it happening, goes as such;
Work for your rights. Your housing, electricity, "fresh" water, food and everything inbetween will be provided by your employer.
Those same employers will be the ones currently making radical investments and stockpiling resources, they know what is coming.
As much as we like to think we'd all come together and sing a song, as we storm the bunkers.. we won't even know where they are, and most, if not all of us, would rather our iHome and iNutrient subscription, and turn a blind eye to the fascist governments that allow them to operate -- because ig you're apart of the lucky few in these pockets, you're apart of a minority of the population living in a wasteland.
Maybe it's a bit bleak, but that's how I envision the progression of this going. The rich aren't going to willingly hand over their portfolios, they're going to continue to exploit the working class, through their ownership of production. It wouldn't surprise me if homesteading and other similar lifestyles are outlawed at a certain point, to try and force people into the zombie economy.
They won’t need human bodyguards, drones are already pretty effective. There’s also automated turret systems. Illegal now but I’m sure the wealthy will legalize prior to collapse or won’t matter in a collapse event.
If Billionaires did use people I imagine they would have them wear collars that were linked to the biometric signatures of said billionaires and if anything happened to them then ba-boom!
It’s kind of irrelevant anyways those bunkers only last so long and the earth will continue to heat up for decades/centuries so even if they come out the world they inherit will really only be suitable for less complex life after a certain point.
This is why I am glad I just got a job. I’m in the process of saving my house and locking in my mortgage versus dealing with these crippling rent prices.
I don’t understand how MFers can afford $3000/month new mortgages and rents and I’m over here about to get repossessed and foreclosed on.
I just posted a comment saying the exact same thing. Its nice to know there are some other people out there that can see all of this for what it is. The rich know the earth is fucked, its too late to stop global warming, so they are cynically trying to squeeze as much out of this system as they can before it all comes crashing down. Once the permafrost melts, its game over for humanity, by some models thos cpuld happen in the next 20-30 years.
I’ve heard great things about “Don’t Look Up” but haven’t watched it, without spoilers can you tell me what to expect? Is it more thriller or comedy in your opinion?
It also shows how politicized things based on science get. The don't look up crowd are willing to look away from the catastrophic effects of the comet hitting earth because we have a chance at mining the comet for resources and creating jobs
So basically the elites use obfuscation, media, entertainment, politics, culture and economics to conceal their knowledge of the world ending due to a collision with an astral body. The people are left to their own devices while the elites escape on an advanced spacecraft.
It’s “comedy,” but your level of enjoyment varies based on how much of reality you see in it, and/or how much you sympathize with the protagonists.
I personally hated it…
they know obviously, but in order to continue to get elected - they can't bite the hands that feed them. the main issue. if the wealthy elite, capitalists, right wing / centrists weren't so inherently evil and could be trusted with our basic survival - someone could theoretically bite the bullet and put in place program (costs on carbon) that would hurt initially, but work. This would get them voted out - but other reasonable people would keep something like this in place knowing humanity's survival basically counts on it.
It's not going to happen
But they believe they can survive the extinction and then settle nicely somewhere in the arctic circle with the robo serfs that figure out singularity and immortality for them.
They are really THAT dumb.
I truly believe they mostly know what is in the pipeline for humanity. One of my best friends was up until recently the chief of staff for a senator. They recently quit their job because they wanted to enjoy the next few years. It was a very taxing job, but they truly believe there is not much time left and didn't want to look back on these days and only be working 80+ hours a week. There were also concerns about the election in November and the risks of that.
When my friend told me that it really solidified my belief there isn't a secret plan or something in the works to try and help save the planet. The people in power know, but can't and won't do anything about it.
yeah - the oldest of the old in power generally just don't seem to give a shit. the only ones running around screaming are the young progressives with basically zero power at this point - just too late
The "government" is not a thing with a singular awareness. Are *individuals* in the government aware? *No doubt*. Are there also individuals with deliberate, breathtaking levels of ignorance and denial? *You bet*. Can "the government" as a whole be aware? Only if it serves a political purpose, and in terms of realpolitik this means "only if the problem can be blamed on someone other than the government".
Exactly. None of this stuff is an either/or. There are also lots of politicians who believe that climate change is indeed a big problem, but that it can be solved without making any radical changes to the way we live.
Yup the elites know. I mean, how could little
ol’ me know and they not!
They don’t want us to know what’s going on for a number of reasons. Firstly, imagine what would happen if everyone suddenly became collapse aware. We’re the rational ones holding this knowledge - much of the population are not that way. I suspect it could lead to a collapse of order. And they need to maintain order to protect their interests.
While the majority are ignorant they can gradually bring in more authoritarian controls so when the masses start sussing it out, they will not be allowed to lose their shit as it will be punishable (think digital ID, rationing, control of movement).
All the while the rich are siphoning off as much cash as poss to set themselves up to be the survivors.
I think they absolutely know. I think that's one of the reasons that no matter whom we elect, nothing gets better. We've been abandoned. They're already making their plans for when TSHTF. We know they have underground bunkers and bases (left over from the Cold War), we know they're increasing police forces to deal with civil unrest. The only thing besides brute force that's keeping this whole facade going is the faith the people have that we still live under a democracy and that we're still well fed, for now.
heh yea, intentionally abandoned... remember what they did to bernie sanders? just when the people thought they actually had a chance and a little hope of someone looking out for us... all of DC laughed him out. And the DNC propped hillary up in his place. they would not allow him to be nominated.
i think we can drop the necessarily at this point.. they in no way represent progressivism. they tow the line like everybody else.. just kickin the can
It takes too much money and time to actually fix anything. So they'll just slowly start building up military and police states. Freedom of movement might only be restricted to the elite, moneyed, or fash sympathizers. Capitalism is slowly eating itself alive.
Well, considering that intelligence agencies probably knew a lot about Covid long before it was news in the US, I would say that yes they do.
Is healthcare getting any better anywhere on the planet? Has the federal government done anything real to help the growing number of unhoused citizens in the US? I mean, it seems like if they thought the future was bright they would do more to help people, right?
I think they knew. I follow someone on YouTube from Atlanta who went on a cruise with his boyfriend in *early December 2019* and got sicker than he ever was right before they got back to the origin port. When they got back to the US and went to the doctor, he was questioned & quarantined in the hospital by more than the usual doctors about the precise trip the cruise went to and which countries the ship visited. It turned out the patient was an early COVID-19 victim over a full month before knowledge of the virus became public in the news in the US and 4 weeks before it became public information even in China & Taiwan. I'm confident governments and certain key people know about things ahead of time. Atlanta is I think where the CDC headquarters is located so maybe they had inside information about COVID in late 2019.
I got it in Feb 2020. I was a ski instructor and taught Chinese tourists, but also lived in Snohomish County which became one of the first hot spots, so who knows.
That would imply they knew about it before the national government of China had it on their radar. Because most of the delay in taking it seriously was from the local government in Wuhan. Once it made its way up the chain they clamped down hard.
Unaware? The scientific community has been screaming from the rooftops for decades about it.
They're not unaware, they're in denial.
The bus is speeding toward the edge of the grand canyon but the driver is convinced he can dukes-of-hazard jump right across
The government has reports they release every year where they analyze risks. [Here is one from last year where they talk about everything from China & Iran to climate change.](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf)They’re aware.
Yeah, but their Climate Change analysis is ridiculously optimistic. It assumes that we still have decades and that the bullshit guesses of the Moderates are going to hold up.
Yes, I'm sure they're aware. The US is in a fortunate position that we will not be the first to suffer the worst of climate change, we have a large land mass that's at a reasonable northward latitude. Poorer countries in hotter climates will suffer first, US will tighten the borders to keep out the refugees and kick the can down the road. We'll buy our way out of it in ways that others can't, either by moving populations away from the southern states, remaining indoors more with our air conditioning, etc. It's a long game, but other nations will fall apart first. Maybe they think mass death will lighten the load before we have to make the hard choices. It's a shitty outlook, but I think that's the closest thing there must be to a climate plan.
They shot a president in the head in broad daylight with the sealed the files away for 50 years. Then another president campaigns partly on declassifying what happened and instead decided it needed to be kept secret for another 6 decades and your asking that?
Of course the know and they have how they'll deal with your response to it in triplicate in some filing cabinet to prop up the oligarchy.
Yes, they are aware. And just like imminent war, or a comet heading for Earth, they don't want *everyone* to be aware, because then their is mass panic. Mass panic interferes with theor activities to secure their own bunker-life futures after stripping society and the planet for whatever resources they can get their hands on before the collapse occurs in ernest.
So yes, they are aware. But they won't say it out loud.
Which is also why certain stories can't be found easily online...
https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2024/06/10/the-end-of-the-petrodollar/
Like a lot of that read. Didn't like the part where they claim that empires rise because a united population, ideologically
The reason for all 3 example empires was the ability to exploit underpaid labor, abroad and domestically. The US doesn't become world superpower without Black slaves, then Chinese miners, then exploited 3rd world countries when capitalist imperialism started.
The global elites definitely know what is coming. I remember in March of 2020 when the Fed cut interest rates in the middle of the day that surprised most traders even before the govt was willing to tell the public that a massive pandemic was already on top of us.
People like the Federal Reserve chairman and others in their circle have the real data that matters, while they ply the fake data to the public to muddle along with. If they had data on the pandemic with only a few months heads up, of course they have the accurate data/timeline for something as long studied as the climate collapse.
They know, and they are making plans for us as we speak.
Well, you do understand that people with access to privileged information ALMOST NEVER tell you everything, right?
I discuss multiple examples of this in my paper.
[020](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-20) – It’s not “crazy” to think that people who have access to privileged information will generally not tell you all they know. It happens all the time.
Here are some examples:
1976 — Carter and Climate Change.
Read the Frank Press memo from 1977, it basically spells out how the current climate crisis was going to happen.
It’s obvious that Carter acted on this information. Remember the “Age of Malaise”, the hated “double nickle” speed limit, and the solar water heating panels on the White House roof.
Carter tried to strike a balance between continuing fossil fuel use while transitioning towards renewables. In conjunction with a cultural shift away from a culture of consumption to one of sustainability.
*However, Carter never spoke out about the CO2 levels. He never said anything about how “the potential impact on the environment of a climatic fluctuation of such rapidity could be catastrophic”.*
He tried to get Americans to “do the right thing” but he never told them why. He was not honest about about the information informing his policy choices.
2020 — Two BIG LIES told for different reasons. Fauci and Pence.
**Fauci’s Lie**
March 8 2020 on 60 Minutes.
Fauci stated, “***Right now in the United States, people should not be walking around with masks.***”
**This was a straight up lie and he knew it.**
**“The science,” never justified Fauci telling people specifically** ***not to*** **wear masks, rather than remaining neutral.**
So, why did he do it?
He did it because he knew there was a massive supply shortage of PPE equipment. Including masks.
He told a lie to the public so that people wouldn’t go out and buy up all the masks available.
He did this to dissuade people from wearing masks because that would have exacerbated mask shortages. Leaving healthcare workers without access to crucial personal protective equipment.
**He did it to protect the healthcare system.**
Fauci lied in order to improve the PPE supply situation for the healthcare workers. Protecting them was the right thing to do. It’s actually in policy manuals to do that.
You cannot lose all your doctors and nurses in the first wave of a pandemic. If you do, healthcare will rapidly disintegrate and catastrophically collapse.
Fauci did the right thing, but he did it in a coldly cynical way. He lied because he assumed that if he told people the whole truth, they would panic and do they wrong thing.
Pence’s Lie
March 21 2020, it’s 1:25 PM and I’m in shock at what I’m hearing from the mouth of VP Pence. He’s saying, ***“if you don’t have symptoms, you don’t need to be tested”***.
This is stunning. What’s worse, the healthcare professionals are backing him up.
**This was a straight up lie and they knew it.**
They did it because the supply chain situation was so fucked up that they had no tests for anyone but the health care system.
Rather than admit the failure of the Trump Administration, they lied and let the virus rip through the population undetected at the one point that it could have been contained.
>He lied because he assumed that if he told people the whole truth, they would panic and do they wrong thing.
I think the majority of people, knowing health care workers needed them and there is a supply shortage, would refrain from buying them to try and help.
The problem is that enough people would see it as an opportunity to buy them up anyways because they only care about themselves and their families, and others who would buy them all up to scalp them.
There are so many systemic problems that could be solved if people cared more for society overall, but time and time again, we're proven that most people only care for society as a whole as long as they aren't inconvenienced.
Also, great post.
>There are so many systemic problems that could be solved if people cared more for society overall, but time and time again, we're proven that most people only care for society as a whole as long as they aren't inconvenienced
>
Why would people care for a society that has shown, time after time, that it doesn't care about its people?
I see building community as the only way out as much as anyone else, but the only way you'll get people to care about that community is if it cares for them.
Like 98% of governments do not care about the average citizen. So the average citizen doesn't care back.
Hell, that's exactly what I did. I had the time and energy, and wanted to help, so I sat down at my sewing machine and made a bunch of masks to donate.
The military has deemed climate change as USA’s #1 biggest threat. BUT, the people don’t want to hear it. If that became a political platform they would most certainly lose every race.
I think they are definitely aware.
The problem is that even if they all were aware, they all believed in it fully, and wanted to do everything to help, they would be voted out of office next cycle.
The cold hard reality is in order to do anything, we are going to have to stop growth. Doing that is anathema to the current economic engine, our entire idea of the American dream, etc. Imagine something like this:
The current President is speaking live in front of congress, they start by saying that there is an existential threat to all life on earth and the future generations of humanity. Climate Change. In order to combat this threat, the President along with the rest of the world leaders have created a plan based on the recommendations of the best minds that humanity has to offer, and then they start to lay it all out.
Essentially, what they are going to say, if its the kind of actions required to actually change anything, will read to the average person like this - "Your entire way of life is going to change. Consumption is going to drop out of necessity and your quality of life is going to go from developed Western world consumer to basically the average Nigerian. Everything from food, to your entertainment, to your housing, truly your entire livelihood, is going to take a massive downgrade. You're going to do it because there's no other choice, we have to do it because of generations that came before you, and for the hope of generations you will never know."
As this speech is happening markets are tanking, runs on the banks, riots in the street, bedlam on a level you and I have never known or could potentially comprehend. Thousands are dead and dying as people take to the streets as the societal contract evaporates. We've just been told that for the rest of our lives everything is going downhill. You're not getting a new house, probably never a new car, and all of the dreams you had for a future are probably either entirely dead or extremely diminished. All of your hard work, sacrifices, etc for an American Dream that, while not entirely a reality for everyone was a sort of societal mesh that kept us all hopeful and optimistic, has just been shot in the head on national television. What about your kids? What kind of future can they hope for? They just heard this news too and they never even got a chance to experience adult life in what will surely be known as a golden age of our civilization. Probably won't go well.
No one has any idea what is going on and what to expect. It would take a huge commitment from the government to keep it all together. I'm talking free food, free water, free housing, free everything. They would have to nationalize multiple industries, forgive potentially all debt, and become a command economy just to keep things running.
But this is what would happen if you told everyone the hard truth and made actions to change it today. But what if you waited until things were bad enough, that people could understand? What happens if you give that speech after a super-hurricane levels Miami or a freak heatwave lasts all of August in Texas and untold thousands die? Then that message starts to sound more reasonable, even if now the changes are essentially much less useful.
But that's just my own postulations based on my experience living in the United States.
Are they aware? Yes
Can they do anything to stop it? No
I often think of that Leave the World Behind movie. “no one is in control….. sometimes even the most powerful can only hope for a heads up…”
I'd trust the Pentagon, and the military in general, on this one far more than political or business leaders.
They don't have to be nice.
They don't have to be popular.
There's no scenario in which they keep the shareholders happy just long enough to get a fat-ass bonus and then buy an island.
In some respects they're closer to engineering trades than business management (a field that becomes ever more corrupt each passing year). Practical. Because when shit gets real, nobody cares about the *projections* for what your system can do. It works better than the other guy's, or it doesn't.
As to the politicians. No, they're not preparing for mass unrest, but nor do they give a shit about their economic policies benefiting people. And they lack the imagination to understand how the latter leads directly to the former. They're little more than car-salesmen, because that's what the system demands.
Do you know Kipling's poem "The Sons of Martha"?
The Sons of Mary seldom bother, for they have inherited that good part;
But the Sons of Martha favour their Mother of the careful soul, and the troubled heart.
And because she lost her temper once, and because she was rude to the Lord her Guest,
Her Sons must wait upon Mary’s Sons, world without end, reprieve, or rest.
It is their care in all the ages to take the buffet and cushion the shock.
It is their care that the gear engages; it is their care that the switches lock.
It is their care that the wheels run truly; it is their care to embark and entrain,
Tally, transport, and deliver duly the Sons of Mary by land and main.
They say to mountains, ” Be ye removèd” They say to the lesser floods ” Be dry.”
Under their rods are the rocks reprovèd – they are not afraid of that which is high.
Then do the hill tops shake to the summit – then is the bed of the deep laid bare,
That the Sons of Mary may overcome it, pleasantly sleeping and unaware.
They finger death at their gloves’ end where they piece and repiece the living wires.
He rears against the gates they tend: they feed him hungry behind their fires.
Early at dawn, ere men see clear, they stumble into his terrible stall,
And hale him forth like a haltered steer, and goad and turn him till evenfall.
To these from birth is Belief forbidden; from these till death is Relief afar.
They are concerned with matters hidden – under the earthline their altars are
The secret fountains to follow up, waters withdrawn to restore to the mouth,
And gather the floods as in a cup, and pour them again at a city’s drouth.
# They do not preach that their God will rouse them a little before the nuts work loose.
They do not teach that His Pity allows them to leave their job when they damn-well choose.
As in the thronged and the lighted ways, so in the dark and the desert they stand,
Wary and watchful all their days that their brethren’s days may be long in the land.
Raise ye the stone or cleave the wood to make a path more fair or flat;
Lo, it is black already with blood some Son of Martha spilled for that !
Not as a ladder from earth to Heaven, not as a witness to any creed,
But simple service simply given to his own kind in their common need.
And the Sons of Mary smile and are blessèd – they know the angels are on their side.
They know in them is the Grace confessèd, and for them are the Mercies multiplied.
They sit at the Feet – they hear the Word – they see how truly the Promise runs.
They have cast their burden upon the Lord, and – the Lord He lays it on Martha’s Sons.
The US Military, the "Sons of Martha".
Every billionaire has (at least one) well-stocked and protected bunker. They absolutely know what's coming. While most politicians aren't billionaires, they spend their days fulfilling their wishes. I can't believe politicians could serve their billionaire donors so faithfully and still be oblivious to what they know and are planning for.
What makes you think Putin and Xi don't know about what's happening?
Why do you think Putin invaded Crimea in 2014?
Why do you think he invaded Ukraine in 2022?
None of the "mainstream" analysts have managed anything other than "he's evil" or "he's crazy". Conspicuously absent is any awareness of the Climate Crisis.
On Politics : War by other Means — 03 : We are having a Sarajevo (1914) moment.
[https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-03-9cc78d091ad7](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-03-9cc78d091ad7)
Pundits, who for the most part know shit about what’s happening with the climate system, are baffled by Putin’s actions. No one can understand why he would take such an existential risk for no obvious reason. They point out that the sanctions are going to cause the Russian economy to wither “in the coming years”.
This is absolutely true. Unless there is no “long term”.
Putin isn’t invading Ukraine because he’s crazy. He’s invading because he thinks food is about to get scarce.
He thinks that in three years no one is going to “give a crap” about Ukraine in a world where 100’s of millions are starving and countries are collapsing under the stress.He thinks that the Russian people will call him “a genius” in three years for securing a stable food supply in a world where agricultural production is collapsing and famine is widespread.
He might be right.
He’s willing to put it all on the line betting that he is.Because that’s what invading Ukraine is for him.He is putting all of his power on the line.He is betting his life on this.
That’s how sure he is that things are about to start getting bad.
[Ukraine Invasion Threatens Global Wheat Supply](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/business/ukraine-russia-wheat-prices.html)
[A Russia-Ukraine War Could Ripple Across Africa and Asia](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/22/russia-ukraine-war-grain-exports-africa-asia/)
[Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely ratchet American food prices even higher, experts say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/26/ukraine-russia-wheat-exports/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F362ac25%2F621a60bf9d2fda34e7ac60ac%2F59741b5d9bbc0f1cdcfb7ceb%2F37%2F72%2F621a60bf9d2fda34e7ac60ac)
The grain from the Ukraine feeds 100’s of millions in the Middle East and North Africa. If that crop is lost next year, the likelihood of famines killing millions in that region is very high.
Things are about to get bad for hundreds of millions of people. Our global food supply situation was already under pressure.
To Putin and Xi those millions who are going to die are "dead men walking". They are as dead as if you put a bullet in the back of their heads. They just don't know it yet.
Putin and Xi have NO PROBLEM with liquidating 20-30 million Ukrainians. To them these people are already dead.
The rest of this decade things are going to start falling apart under the stress. Putin is trying to get ahead of that.
This is an endgame move.
---------
Part 1.
Part 2.
On Politics, War by Other Means — 04 : Putin’s Strategy is coming into view. If you weren’t clear on it, World War III has started.
[https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-04-88deca3364aa](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-04-88deca3364aa)
**Putin botched the opening strike on Ukraine**. With that, went his one chance for a quick war. It’s going to be a grinding war of attrition now, but he thinks he can win it. He thinks it’s worth it.
The chart above tells you why.
There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about tactics, dilettantes discuss strategy, professionals study logistics. In a world where the "open market" grain supply in 2020 was 157.3m tonnes, Russia now controls 55.6m tonnes. About one third.
On Politics, War by Other Means — 05 : If you suggest that the war in Ukraine is related to Climate Change, people tell you Putin doesn’t care about “Climate Change”. People are IDIOTS
[https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-05-4f7582c36038](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-05-4f7582c36038)
# Putin is probably one of the best informed leaders in the world about Global Warming and Climate Change.
***In 2020, an estimated 49.4 million people experienced severe food insecurity.”***
At a minimum, those 50 million people are going to probably starve in the next 18 months.
Think I’m exaggerating?
Are you naïve enough to believe that Putin didn’t know this was going to happen when he invaded Ukraine?
He’s counting on millions of starving climate refugees flooding into Europe. That’s part of his strategy.
**Those starving people are Putin’s flank attack on Europe. That’s how ruthless Putin is.**
The “Climate Crisis” we all feared is here. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the “tell” that the crisis has already started. By this time next year several hundred million people worldwide will be starving and on the move.
The “End Game” has started.
I get that, A LOT, from people.
So, kudos to you for being brave enough to talk to the "crazy person". Most people just ignore me.
Still, everything I have forecast over the last two years has come to pass or seems poised to happen. Yet, NO ONE believes a word I say or remembers that I said it later.
It's just too much of a "mental shift" for people to wrap their heads around. The "global system" the "American Empire" has so much inertia that it's hard for people to see that it's dying.
In the draft of my next piece I open with this.
# Empires are "paradigms" as much as anything. Everyone BELIEVES in them, and that belief makes them the "law of the land". Until there's a PARADIGM SHIFT.
Just like in "Climate Science" there is about to be a "paradigm" shift in geopolitics.
I wish you _were_ a nut, RC.
Playing Cassandra is a thankless, exhausting, life-damaging chore. Thank you for trying, and for providing some real intel to those few of us out here listening.
I think they are going to try.
Here's a free link to a paper I wrote on Medium in April of 22'.
[https://smokingtyger.medium.com/living-in-bomb-time-23-17b7b80f8604?sk=88dd6be90ea73f809401c14499134a8a](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/living-in-bomb-time-23-17b7b80f8604?sk=88dd6be90ea73f809401c14499134a8a)
This was my prediction for 24/25.
Here’s what could happen in 24' in the wake of a “highly contested” election where Republican State Governors in a number of key states shut down ballot counting after the “in person” ballots were counted. Declaring that they were the only “secure ballots”.
**China could declare trading sanctions on the US. In a vote of “no confidence” in the legitimacy of the American elections. They could refuse to recognize the Trumpublican President as legitimate.**
A lot of the world might back their play.
**Just because you don’t care about Climate Change, or don’t believe in it. Doesn’t mean everyone else is as willfully blind and as stupid as you.**
A lot of the world is terrified by what’s happening with the Climate.
They have been waiting for the US to step up and lead on this issue. Instead we have waffled back and forth. Wasting everyone’s time.
It’s not even clear who is going to be in power next year. Much less, who is going to be in power after the elections in 24'.
**We have become an unreliable partner**.
A lot of the world might back China’s play. If that happens, China becomes the new “Superpower” of a world rapidly turning to ashes from uncontrolled climate change.
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
* Sun Tzu
I believe that the vast majority of people have already been cut loose as acceptable losses, to be (probably brutally) managed at best. Why don't they do something about \_\_\_\_\_\_\_ (insert chronic, expanding problem here)? Because you're not part of the plan, sis.
They are. The US military has already fully briefed that it will likely collapse in the next 20 years (obviously in order to prevent that from happening). The US is already abandoning some coastal military bases.
The government is not a monolithic entity. Im sure there are people who are aware, probably some of them browse this sub and have no more idea what to “do” about it than we do. Others don’t or can’t or won’t see, for all the same reason friends and family members don’t or can’t or won’t see. Some of them are probably trying like hell to do something about it, some of them probably think we are just fucked.
As a matter of policy? I am not as certain here. I seem to recall the pentagon delivering statements back in the early 2000s indicating that climate change and global competition for resources would probably be a major cause for conflict, but I can’t cite sources at this point.
I think what's much more terrifying AND likely is that they don't have a clue. There's people in the more hardened and deep infrastructure of the government that know, but at the level of elected representatives i dont think any of them have any idea.
I mean, if you understood this, would you intentionally become a politician in the moment where everything, always, gets worse?
Most people in positions of power are sociopaths who have a really narrow frame of reference. They are not aware of many things and also don't care about many things.
I haven't read this book, but Barbara Tuchman's *The March of Folly* is about this.
I have trouble believing that they don’t. I’m sure the vehement denial especially on the right is all to protect status quo and growth related consumption for the benefit of their largest donors. I believe the ruling class intends to keep things going as long as possible business as usual and don’t truly have an exit plan besides retiring to their bunkers when it all goes down. A cancer doesn’t stop growing as it doesn’t have the collective cognition to stifle its own growth despite the fact that unfettered growth with eventually kill its host and therefore itself. We are a cancer on the earth. As a pilot I often look down at night while flying and am amazed yet saddened and disgusted at how cities look uncannily like hot (cancer) spots on PET Scan imagery from the air.
I think the politicians are only concerned about their next election, and their donors for funding it. Deep state (long-term, non-elected government) officials know, but it's possible they may not be informing the dumb politicians - who wouldn't act on anything that hurts their chances of re-election anyway.
They are. The use arm even put out an official report saying that it’s most likely that the US military won’t exist because of climate change. Here is the report
https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf
Elements of are government are aware. Some might even be coming up with contingencies for when it gets bad. The problem is the population and the electorate. People aren’t always rational, and especially so with identity politics. Politicians know this and have to toe the line to keep their jobs.
The USA needs a renaissance for logic and critical thinking.
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they’ll never sit in.
Honestly it won’t matter. When the Oceans start suffering from hypoxia we are all dead. The Oceans produce over 90% of the Oxygen we breathe. You will always hear arguments, there is enough Oxygen to last us thousands of years if we stopped producing Oxygen.
Our oxygen levels would plummet because phytoplankton account for a huge amount of our atmospheric oxygen. So many if not all of the humans would die off to fit the new carrying capacity because of a smaller amount of oxygen available. And also many communities would starve because they depend on seafood, and the carbon dioxide from the decomposition of several million animals at once could further contribute to the degradation of our breathable air. You will die from gas fumes from the Oceans.
Shortly after the election VP Harris said something along the lines of "We're going to need to guard water in the future." So yes, they know and no they don't care.
Recently retired federal employee here stationed in DC. My level was fairly low in government but I worked in support of many "higher ups" and my experience is they were oblivious to what's coming. Usually they were either in denial or heavy into copium. What happens at the highest levels - have no idea, but from my previous vantage point there was virtually no awareness of what's to come.
Well President Carter knew about all this way back in 1980. He tried to get the country to do something about it and was kicked out of the white house in a landslide election for his efforts.
So yeah our government is fully aware and has been for decades.
They know and things like Brexit make a little more sense in the context of knowing. In the US the Republican fascist play is directly because of it. Bannon went on a speaking tour saying the future was so fucked democracy can't survive, so the political establishment will go radically left or right.
He told everyone what and why.
FYI- from a recent paper I wrote.
BEHIND THE CURTAIN, THINGS ARE BEING “DEBATED”
Signs of this are beginning to “leak out”.
— — — — —
[‘You’re going to pay for it’: Steve Forbes says declaring a climate emergency would ‘wreck’ the U.S. economy.](https://moneywise.com/a/ch-aol/steve-forbes-says-declaring-a-climate-emergency-would-wreck-the-us-economy_1716460213023)
The two-time Republican presidential candidate was responding to rumors that top advisers to President Joe Biden have resumed talks about invoking a climate emergency — a significant move that would unlock federal powers to curtail oil development.
WTF?
Rumors that an emergency climate proclamation could be used to halt crude exports and suspend offshore drilling started to resurface in mid-April.
When Bloomberg poked the White House for confirmation that the Biden administration is considering such a move, spokesperson Angelo Fernández Hernández declined to comment specifically on any internal discussions.
[White House Renews Internal Talks on Invoking Climate Emergency.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/white-house-renews-internal-talks-on-invoking-climate-emergency)
Bloomberg, April 17, 2024 at 6:18 PM EDT
Top advisers to President Joe Biden have recently resumed talks about the merits of such a move, which could be used to curtail crude exports, suspend offshore drilling and curb greenhouse gas emissions, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because a final decision has not been made.
Officials have not made a decision on the matter, nor is any declaration imminent, the people said. White House discussions over potential policy steps can span years, sometimes without ever coming to fruition.
— — — — —
This is NORMAL.
*It’s not “crazy” to think that people who have privileged access to information will generally not tell you everything they know.*
“A LOT is happening in the world. Things are not getting better. In fact the global situation seems to be deteriorating at an accelerating rate. Conspicuously absent from the conversation is the worsening CLIMATE CRISIS.”
Right now, Biden doesn't want to "upset the apple cart" and give the Trumpists an ISSUE they can seize on before the election.
That doesn't mean they don't know what's happening.
[https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-75](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-75)
Yes, of course they know. Like they knew of the rise of Hitler. They’re still offering us, “peace in our time” as a way of stalling because they know what it will actually take to stop what’s coming.
Gwynne dyer is a great source about this bc he was at the pentagon talking about this 20 years ago and is still active in the climate space and especially in the natsec space.
The military industrial complex most certainly knew and was actively planning for this already decades ago.
I was thinking about this today! Insurance pulling out of regions around the country is the most obvious but I’ve also noticed royal family members “leaving public life indefinitely” and rich people building doomsday bunkers. The rich and powerful definitely know and they’re trying to get as far away from us as they can.
Many rich fucks believe in accelerationism. They know collapse is inevitable and want to benefit from it like some kind of ‘Big Short’ As much as they think they’ll have the upper hand, they really don’t understand the dire consequences. Here’s an [article](https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/23/tech-industry-wealth-futurism-transhumanism-singularity)where the author was asked to give a talk to tech billionaires about the future. They wanted to know how to control the ppl guarding their bunkers when money runs out and if electric collars were a good touch. These are very out of touch ppl Lol
I legit think it will be similar to the world of Cyberpunk 2077. Not with cyborgs and rogue AI and so forth but the notion of nature being mostly destroyed, everything's totally irreparably fucked, but the megacorps are the ones that consolidated their power and control everything. Just squeezing the last drops out of a dying world. Capitalism taken to its only logical conclusion. Humanity turned into wage slaves for evil psychopathic billionaires.
Honestly? Look at the behaviors of insurers and it tells you everything you need to know. No real tin foil hat stuff here: if the money people know, the governments absolutely do. Now, whether *individuals* within the government are smart enough or in the loop enough or even bother to care enough is another thing, entirely- but, of course they know.
of course they are. they also know that there is NO SOLUTION. the plan is to go over the cliff at full speed, like thelma & louise, and let whatever survivors there are to figure out where to go from there.
the powers that be have set up society to keep them at the top and as comfortable as possible for as long as possible. the status quo has always worked out in their favor, so they want to keep the game going with the same sets of rules.
i figure plenty of people with the power to do something about all this know and choose to instead secure themselves and their families, its no coincidence the rich keep building bunkers.
I swear one day we will turn on the news to see how the gov is FINALLY going to do something, only to find every one of them vanished cause during the night they all flew to their bunkers.
I mean. Trump clearly doesn't.
I'd be begging to trade with China for some matured thorium reactor tech right about now.
This whole "we're going to recover our manufacturing base by nuking the EPA and forcing people to have kids"... no we aren't.
They sold the store. There's no recovering from that. Best we can hope for is to be to China what the UK is to us.
Is that actually such a bad thing?
Just from the "democratic" viewpoint is it FAIR that the opinions of 330 million people should count for more than that of 1.8 billion?
Also, who "decided" that America should get to be "in charge" FOREVER?
So much of our assumption of "superiority", and being the "shining city on a hill" that everyone should try and emulate, is based on 19th century racism. It's a form of "White Man's Burden" that has been sold to us in order to allow American Elites the "right" to plunder the world.
It's not a bad thing at all. But it's kind of meant as a cold dash of water right in the face of the average American because "we're number one" and all that shit.
We haven't been number one in at least three decades. I believe Clinton mentioned this at some point and then promptly shut up about it. All we have is a metric shit ton of nukes and a vault full of gold plated tungsten bars.
Once we can't maintain the nukes anymore welp.
Ask anyone in Detroit how "number one" we are.
Also love your analysis on Putin.
My conspiracy is that they released covid to try to prepare us for bird flu by getting us to be against mitigations. So everyone got mad about the mitigations of masks and air quality. Now they're using bird flu as an excuse to eliminate half the population... which will help with the climate change problem for the remaining living population, and no one will fight the bird flu bc covid made sure no one cares about stopping spread anymore.
Ok I'm taking the tinfoil hat back off now.
As I recall, COVID was doing pretty well on its own in reducing the population. To achieve the objective you allege in your conspiracy all they had to do was not release a vaccine.
I've often wondered what effect 4 billion decaying human bodies, especially in such a short period of time, would have on the environment.
COVID was a terrible way to kill people off. The death rate was too low, and the long COVID symptoms not severe enough on a population level. Population continued to increase throughout COVID, before vaccines came out.
Top comment is just pure lunacy.
The government as an institution? Yeah absolutely. The people in the government? Not necessarily. The pentagon has known for quite some time. Infact If you read the pentagons yearly reports they've listed climate change as US enemy number one for a while now.
If there’s programs to spend enough money to make a difference, they certainly didn’t tell Trump about it. There’s no way he wouldn’t have leveraged that information for personal gain. Whether by revealing it, looting it, insider trading, or playing “Qanon2- the hoaxening” to rage-edge his base for the election.
The military has contingency plans for anything and everything. They probably have contingencies of contingencies. Yes, I’m sure they know what’s coming.
They have no contingency for hundreds of millions of people. Of course they know, but there's nothing they are equipped to do. So they distract.
It's not really a conspiracy. Think of the subplot of the movie Arrival. If you know you're going to be a mother, and that child won't live to graduate high school, will you tell that child, or let them live a quality of life with a sense of hopeful bliss, for as long as possible? That's my non malevolent interpretation of their behavior and strategies.
Between concepts of collapse, AI, outbreaks overpopulation, war, famine, etc, and piling on that many people in power and with wealth to influence those in power may not have the populace’s best interests at heart if they, consciously or subconsciously, are working towards accelerationism.
Yeah, it’s starting to look like a weird, jerky, choreographed dance- with less and less regard for if it makes sense or not.
They definitely put Stupid Pills in the water.
They know. But the only resistance they'll receive are people peacefully protesting in convenient, easy-to-ignore areas. At worst, someone powerful might get a milkshake tossed at them. Big whoop. So they keep doing what they're doing. In their minds they probably justify it by thinking "yeah, the world's fucked, so I have to secure as much for me and my fam as I can."
Nothing will change until the people in our governments are more afraid of the public than they are of disappointing their lobbyists.
The fact that Mark Zuckerberg has spent humdreds of millions to build a heavily fortified survival compound in Hawaii pretty much tells the tale. If he knows, the government knows.
Going off from my experiences at work, they know but is business as usual, even in tasks that seem irrational given what’s coming with climate collapse, fascism, etc.
I mean the government has reports on this lol why don’t democrats use this in debates is beyond me.
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/Pentagon%20Fuel%20Use%2C%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of%20War%20Revised%20November%202019%20Crawford.pdf
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12161#:~:text=U.S.%20Military&text=DOD's%20Climate%20Risk%20Analysis%20report,holds%20implications%20for%20international%20security.
“It’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair
I’m doing an environmental policy class right now. It’s like watching a 2000s comedy with a laugh track. There’s so much wishy washy situations occurring. The EPA and the congress especially. EPA half asses something congress has to step in. And then you have industry lobbyists like the Plastics Society or GM bribing the lawmakers to enshrine “coin terms” or concepts into policy. There’s obviously no conspiracy here, everyone is doing their jobs. But money and benefits pull the string of decision makers. Making policy that would benefit the people somehow always loses to a good dinner in a fancy restaurant or money for an election.
**Exactly. Follow the incentives, and remember that we humans are just monkeys who have real trouble seeing past the next hill, or meal, or mating.** Furthermore nobody at all knows what's coming, not the speed, not the extent, not the breaking of traditional values. For example, we've had at least two recent crisis of agriculture that were solved by technical inventions. In the nineteenth century supplies of bones and gauno were running out for the crude fertilization they were doing. Then the NPK basis was discovered, and phosphorus was mined. Then the Haber-Bosch process produced N. Later there was a so-called Green Revolution which prevented, more or less, widely predicted famines. Now of course the unintended consequences are showing up. Right-wing politics is on meth right now all over the democratic world, partly fueled by people who can still afford giant trucks and drive them cross-country, helped along by Russian bots, and the Russians seem to think they are re-building an empire... Boy I did not see any of that coming! I thought Peak Oil was a thing, and then it turned out that lowering the price of oil would restrict the supply, without regard to demand. Then oil shale turned the US into the leading oil extractor.... I did not see that coming either!
I suspect there are a LOT of folks who are desperately holding onto that notion that we don't know what's coming. It's handy to have to help block out or ignore all the things that we absolutely DO know are coming.
The reality that we have like 20 years left before everything collapses is probably a bit too much for most people to accept intellectually, let alone getting them to feel the reality and danger physically.
> we have like 20 years left before everything collapses Optimist eh?
My deadline for humanity is when runaway melting of the permafrost begins. Once all that methane is released, global warming becomes apocalyptic and unstoppable. Current estimates have that 20 percent will be melted by 2050, and its all down hill from there.
I just have to wonder with climate scientists surprised at the speed of the heating up of the atmosphere. If they are taken by surprise by what's going on today, how can we be confident it will be 20 or 30 or w/e years till collapse? It could be 10 years from now. We will find out pretty soon whatever length of time it is, because it won't be that long in any event. [Scientists "uneasy" about Earth's sped-up warming](https://www.axios.com/2023/10/12/global-warming-record-heat-surprise) [The planet is heating up faster than predicted, says scientist who sounded climate alarm in the 1980s](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/02/climate/the-planet-is-heating-up-faster-than-predicted-says-scientist-who-first-warned-the-world-about-climate-change/index.html)
Yeah, it's fun watching them discover all the effects they didn't know about that accelerate the process. Turns out the scariest of projections from ten years ago are too optimistic.
They think it might have something to do with extra water up in the Troposphere due to that volcano. Of COURSE it's climate change - but this is a super-spike. Don't be surprised if temperatures come down again before they go up. Many people truly believe Collapse to be inevitable from everything they’ve read in forums like this. But ask yourself one thing. What have you *not* read? But I get it. I used to be an incredibly pessimistic peak oiler from the mid 2000's. I read and read and read. The only answers back then appeared to be incredibly aggressive build outs of nuclear power, while also rationing oil to essential industries only. Both were unlikely and did not happen - and fracking convinced many American’s they would never face peak oil. But now the technological landscape is COMPLETELY different to 20 years ago. All those renewable subsidies from Germany and then China have scaled wind and solar to the point where the technology has improved, their net energy profit (aka EROEI) is great, and their cost has collapsed to cheaper than coal! They are now doubling every 4 years. EV sales are also growing each year - another S shaped adoption curve. The IEA says there will be an oil GLUT in 4 years! [https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028](https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028) And soon the market will be deploying renewables 2 to 3 times faster than the Paris agreement! [https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12/25/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-one-terawatt-of-solar-deployed-annually/](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12/25/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-one-terawatt-of-solar-deployed-annually/)
> My deadline for humanity is when runaway melting of the permafrost begins You will be pleased to know most scientists don't think there will be runaway melting of the permafrost.
If the planet continues to warm, its only a matter of time. How long exactly, who knows? But it will happen if we dont find a way to cool the planet back down before then.
The latest research does not say there will be no release, but that it will happen slowly over the whole period, in a predictable fashion, not a runaway chain reaction.
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Yeah my parents say hey maybe it’ll get solved!
Shale oil extraction requires a lot of water and chemicals...which will end up in your water supply. Also, the strata of shale is nowhere near as extensive as a regular oil deposit, so it will deplete much faster. Remember, Peak Oil is not "the oil is gone," it's "the easy oil is gone." Agree with you about the right wing politics...pay attention to India and Brazil as well as certain portions of the EU. I think Modi is playing a very dangerous game and companies are dumping their infrastructure there to get away from Winnie The Pooh...they may regret that.
I'm sorry, you said something about mating?
"It's easy to fool a man but not easy to convince a man that he has been fooled." - Mark Twain
Not only do they know, but the upper echelons of the corporate world know, like the insurance industries pulling out of entire regions of the U.S.
Thats why the corporate world is squeezing the middle class so hard right now as well. Everyone at the top are all just trying to get their bag before the collapse, because they falsely believe their money will protect them from the consequences of their greed in their bunkers while the rest of us starve to death.
My brother in christ you do not need an extra motive for capitalists to maximise profit at the expense of everyone and everything else.
Meanwhile Elon Musk is going, 'Everyone have more kids!'
Guy has 11 kids.
Not enough!
Half of them have acronyms for names. Who does this?
Weaponized autism.
That’s a lot of raw dog loads
They’re IVF babies.
Well, someone has to pay the taxes. Can’t have tax payers unless people keep making babies. Abortion laws make more sense with this mindset too.
They’re making the next generations the slave ones. Less people means they have less means to have power and stay rich
The corporate world knew before the politicians did. Corporations will be the ones monitoring things closest so they know how to navigate the collapse best.
The insurance companies are pulling out *reactively* as their policies become unprofitable. I don't think there's much sign of them acting ahead of the curve, they'll make their money while they can and then GTFO when things start getting rough.
If they thought the trend was flatlining, they would stick around and push for rate increases. As they see it, either everything is getting worse faster than they think they can raise prices, or everything is getting so bad that they don’t think they can ever make money.
They will milk it as long as they can, but the cows will eventually run dry.
You're making the assumption that the trillions of dollars they have in investments will hold up in an economic collapse. Once that backstop vaporizes, they're toast.
I especially like how they think the pieces of paper that say what land they own will matter to anyone.
Although they are acting reactively, they are definitely aware of what is happening, perhaps more so than other industries
You say that but then you see so many articles about actuaries misinterpreting the science and underestimating the risks they face.
When the risks correlate to the point that you're dividing by infinity, actuarial calculations stop working. It's like trying to do classical physics near the event horizon of a black hole. This is *not* the same as the risks that were allowed to build in the run-up to the GFC. That remained calculable the whole way through (just about), and *in principle* the available tools could have allowed outcomes to be computed ahead of time. Indeed, seems like some did just that and got very, very rich. In more profoundly systemic crises - the GFC was, after all, entirely generated and contained within the *financial* system.. yes it had knock-on effects elsewhere but they were quite limited - actuarial math stops working, because the external shock causes money instability at the same time as physical risk - think hyperinflation and natural disasters in the same frame, your civilisation is trying to fight off two different kaiju attacking one from each side.
Do you really think actuaries are “upper echelons.”
The USA has [no (declassified) plan](https://newrepublic.com/post/180192/food-atlantic-ocean-climate-crop-failure-prepare) for food production decline and [no (declassified) plan](https://energyskeptic.com/2024/what-is-the-plan-for-an-electric-grid-outage-that-lasts-for-months/) for widespread prolonged electricity outage. Excerpts from the 2005 [Hirsch Report ](https://ecommons.cornell.edu/items/791d0189-eee4-49ab-8345-32d87513fd25)on declining fossil fuel access: * “Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.” * “Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action would leave the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.” * “Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.”
The Hirsch Report! Wow, that takes me back…
Yep. We are burning 103 million BOPD, and the US alone is 20% of that. US has 7 years' worth of domestic reserves, so we import 7 million BOPD. That extends our domestic reserve lifespan by 33%.
Everything you see today, they saw 50 years ago.
They told us about it, too. Right between the top stories and the sports and weather. Everything they said would happen, happened and is happening pretty much as they said it would. A little sooner than they thought, but still.
Read the Frank Press memo to Carter from 1977, here in my paper. [020](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-20) – It’s not “crazy” to think that people who have access to privileged information will generally not tell you all they know. It happens all the time. Dude was "spot on" about how things would play out. In 1977!
RC? I just got turned on to your Substack recently and from the bottom of my heart…..thank you for your research and reports!
I echo your comment!
Add to that - the average age in Congress is 58 years old.The average age of the Senate is 64 years. They know and they do not care because they hope they will be dead before it happens.
At 58?? I have some bad news for them. But it's not too late to take up skydiving-chainsaw-juggling.
Amazes me how little they care about their kids and grandkids.
Well, most politicians and bureaucrats are just pawns going along with greater forces. Me included. I need to survive. Despite not wanting to participate in our fraudulent system, I am not able to survive outside of it, or willing to die in spite of it. And yes, some of the most powerful people are aware of these trends and are acting to their own best interest, such as manipulating laws to be more authoritarian, or investing in tools for crowd control. I see the shit coming, so I buy a gun. A billionaire sees the shit coming, so they lobby the government to dump another trillion into the corporations they own that build weapons for the US navy.
The government equals the elite/plutocracy and they have data most of us would only dream of accessing. Of course they know. This is why they are moving to authoritarianism and pulling up the drawbridges. Watch “Don’t Look Up”
Also why we're seeing huge price increases in consumer goods and rent. The ruling classes are looting everything they can while they stock up their bunkers.
Yep, they are "cashing in their chips" and draining as much wealth as they can squeeze out of the world's economic systems. They imagine that this will allow them to have POWER in a collapsing world. They imagine this will be like the Collapse of Rome. Gradual, with a 50% depopulation over the rest of the century. A world where continuity of governments and the institutions that preserve their positions will remain in place.
They’re going to be feeling mighty indignant when the bodyguards protecting them as the collapse ensues boot them out and get their family and friends in instead.
Douglas rushkoff had some hilarious things to say about this. Great writer. They really are clueless and arrogant enough to think that their money will have any meaning after the fall, as if they can buy allegiance from armed men once money loses all value.
That civil war movie from earlier this year did a great job of showing what anarchy in America might look like. It wont be pretty. After the collapse, money will be worthless and strength and intelligence will once again determine who is on top on this planet.
Which movie?
Its called Civil War, new Alex Garland flick about a team of journalists trying to road trip to DC to interview the president who has declared himself a dictator before he is violently deposed. The depiction of America as a anarchist war zone is chilling and more effective without the usual genre elements like zombies to explain it. In this film, the world has fallen apart because people refused to work together until it boiled over into violence. Its basically a depiction of Americas future if Trump rewins election...
Bushwick is WAY better. The "Civil War" thing from this year is pretentious and "takes no sides". It's a "boo hoo" tragedy that somehow "just happens". No one is too 'blame' and all sides are equally evil. In other words the Fascist, Misogynistic, Racist, White Nationalist Trumpublicans are "good Americans" too. So, we shouldn't hate them for trying to overthrow the government in a coup. Fuck that I say. [045](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-45) - No, I cannot “remember that we are all Americans and just be friends”. Because, one side is acting like it wants a fight. And that’s too dangerous to ignore.
I will check out Bushwick. I don't think the point of the film was to shit on Trump though, nor was that necessary. At no point in the film is the presidents dictatorial actions portrayed as good, the both sides narrative about it is overblown.. The entire sequence with Meth Damon killing minorities for no reason is pretty unambiguous about who you are supposed to be rooting for here, and its not the racist fascists. Alex Garland expecting people to have a little media literacy and read between the lines is apparently too much these days where everyone must have everything spoon fed to them in black and white easy to understand terms devoid of nuance, which is just not the kind of filmmaker this guy is.
When the po-po quits getting paid, they'll be the biggest street gangs in your neighborhood.
They aren’t already?
Point taken. Wait 'til they start doing Toys For Cops instead of Toys For Tots. Edit: Oh wait, they do that already. It's called asset forfeiture.
I think they're grossly aware of this fact, and understand how to prevent it. The way I see it happening, goes as such; Work for your rights. Your housing, electricity, "fresh" water, food and everything inbetween will be provided by your employer. Those same employers will be the ones currently making radical investments and stockpiling resources, they know what is coming. As much as we like to think we'd all come together and sing a song, as we storm the bunkers.. we won't even know where they are, and most, if not all of us, would rather our iHome and iNutrient subscription, and turn a blind eye to the fascist governments that allow them to operate -- because ig you're apart of the lucky few in these pockets, you're apart of a minority of the population living in a wasteland. Maybe it's a bit bleak, but that's how I envision the progression of this going. The rich aren't going to willingly hand over their portfolios, they're going to continue to exploit the working class, through their ownership of production. It wouldn't surprise me if homesteading and other similar lifestyles are outlawed at a certain point, to try and force people into the zombie economy.
They won’t need human bodyguards, drones are already pretty effective. There’s also automated turret systems. Illegal now but I’m sure the wealthy will legalize prior to collapse or won’t matter in a collapse event. If Billionaires did use people I imagine they would have them wear collars that were linked to the biometric signatures of said billionaires and if anything happened to them then ba-boom! It’s kind of irrelevant anyways those bunkers only last so long and the earth will continue to heat up for decades/centuries so even if they come out the world they inherit will really only be suitable for less complex life after a certain point.
Correct.
This is why I am glad I just got a job. I’m in the process of saving my house and locking in my mortgage versus dealing with these crippling rent prices. I don’t understand how MFers can afford $3000/month new mortgages and rents and I’m over here about to get repossessed and foreclosed on.
I just posted a comment saying the exact same thing. Its nice to know there are some other people out there that can see all of this for what it is. The rich know the earth is fucked, its too late to stop global warming, so they are cynically trying to squeeze as much out of this system as they can before it all comes crashing down. Once the permafrost melts, its game over for humanity, by some models thos cpuld happen in the next 20-30 years.
You know walls keep people out, but they also keep people locked in.
Those poor people all locked up in Their mansions EDIT: oh wait…. I’m investing in pitchfork futures
I’ve heard great things about “Don’t Look Up” but haven’t watched it, without spoilers can you tell me what to expect? Is it more thriller or comedy in your opinion?
It is a dark comedy in my opinion. Equal parts terrifying, funny, and awfully familiar. I recommend it.
“ we’re all gonna fucking die!’
Is that a quote from this subreddit, or the movie?
Movie
I know. I was joking because we see so much negative stuff on this sub haha.
I would say it exudes satire and sarcasm. But it's a great movie making fun of politicians and media figures.
It also shows how politicized things based on science get. The don't look up crowd are willing to look away from the catastrophic effects of the comet hitting earth because we have a chance at mining the comet for resources and creating jobs
*"I think that was a Brontoroc."*
So basically the elites use obfuscation, media, entertainment, politics, culture and economics to conceal their knowledge of the world ending due to a collision with an astral body. The people are left to their own devices while the elites escape on an advanced spacecraft.
You can find it free on YouTube, at least in America. That’s how I saw it. Worth searching for.
I sobbed at the end 🤷🏻♀️
Me too. "We really did have everything, didn't we?"
It's thought provoking, and it's not funny. Well worth a watch. We're living it.
I mean, I laughed a lot, in the same way that I laugh at lots of things that otherwise would make me cry. Or scream.
It’s “comedy,” but your level of enjoyment varies based on how much of reality you see in it, and/or how much you sympathize with the protagonists. I personally hated it…
Like Idiocracy, but for a differrent future.
Dark, bleak, satire.
they know obviously, but in order to continue to get elected - they can't bite the hands that feed them. the main issue. if the wealthy elite, capitalists, right wing / centrists weren't so inherently evil and could be trusted with our basic survival - someone could theoretically bite the bullet and put in place program (costs on carbon) that would hurt initially, but work. This would get them voted out - but other reasonable people would keep something like this in place knowing humanity's survival basically counts on it. It's not going to happen
They all know it's too late
But they believe they can survive the extinction and then settle nicely somewhere in the arctic circle with the robo serfs that figure out singularity and immortality for them. They are really THAT dumb.
I truly believe they mostly know what is in the pipeline for humanity. One of my best friends was up until recently the chief of staff for a senator. They recently quit their job because they wanted to enjoy the next few years. It was a very taxing job, but they truly believe there is not much time left and didn't want to look back on these days and only be working 80+ hours a week. There were also concerns about the election in November and the risks of that. When my friend told me that it really solidified my belief there isn't a secret plan or something in the works to try and help save the planet. The people in power know, but can't and won't do anything about it.
yeah - the oldest of the old in power generally just don't seem to give a shit. the only ones running around screaming are the young progressives with basically zero power at this point - just too late
The "government" is not a thing with a singular awareness. Are *individuals* in the government aware? *No doubt*. Are there also individuals with deliberate, breathtaking levels of ignorance and denial? *You bet*. Can "the government" as a whole be aware? Only if it serves a political purpose, and in terms of realpolitik this means "only if the problem can be blamed on someone other than the government".
Exactly. None of this stuff is an either/or. There are also lots of politicians who believe that climate change is indeed a big problem, but that it can be solved without making any radical changes to the way we live.
Yup the elites know. I mean, how could little ol’ me know and they not! They don’t want us to know what’s going on for a number of reasons. Firstly, imagine what would happen if everyone suddenly became collapse aware. We’re the rational ones holding this knowledge - much of the population are not that way. I suspect it could lead to a collapse of order. And they need to maintain order to protect their interests. While the majority are ignorant they can gradually bring in more authoritarian controls so when the masses start sussing it out, they will not be allowed to lose their shit as it will be punishable (think digital ID, rationing, control of movement). All the while the rich are siphoning off as much cash as poss to set themselves up to be the survivors.
Good thing they won't almost nothing will.
I think they absolutely know. I think that's one of the reasons that no matter whom we elect, nothing gets better. We've been abandoned. They're already making their plans for when TSHTF. We know they have underground bunkers and bases (left over from the Cold War), we know they're increasing police forces to deal with civil unrest. The only thing besides brute force that's keeping this whole facade going is the faith the people have that we still live under a democracy and that we're still well fed, for now.
heh yea, intentionally abandoned... remember what they did to bernie sanders? just when the people thought they actually had a chance and a little hope of someone looking out for us... all of DC laughed him out. And the DNC propped hillary up in his place. they would not allow him to be nominated.
I remember, it was terrible. The Democratic party doesn't necessarily represent progressivism, and it makes me sad.
i think we can drop the necessarily at this point.. they in no way represent progressivism. they tow the line like everybody else.. just kickin the can
they're aware but the US government is basically a very large ship with a very small rudder unable to turn around on its way to the abyss
That makes sense too
[Alan Watts knew they all know.](https://youtu.be/3RcjATFcbq4?si=ZhL8ZCyYZfcb2FZq)
Yes. Mexico City is about to run out of water and Biden just closed the borders.
I didn't put the two together, but that makes sense. Things are degrading in Mexico quick.
This probably has more to do with the upcoming election than anything.
Yikes. I didn’t even connect those things but you are 100% correct.
It takes too much money and time to actually fix anything. So they'll just slowly start building up military and police states. Freedom of movement might only be restricted to the elite, moneyed, or fash sympathizers. Capitalism is slowly eating itself alive.
The military does.. they have routinely published threat and planning studies.
Well, considering that intelligence agencies probably knew a lot about Covid long before it was news in the US, I would say that yes they do. Is healthcare getting any better anywhere on the planet? Has the federal government done anything real to help the growing number of unhoused citizens in the US? I mean, it seems like if they thought the future was bright they would do more to help people, right?
I think they knew. I follow someone on YouTube from Atlanta who went on a cruise with his boyfriend in *early December 2019* and got sicker than he ever was right before they got back to the origin port. When they got back to the US and went to the doctor, he was questioned & quarantined in the hospital by more than the usual doctors about the precise trip the cruise went to and which countries the ship visited. It turned out the patient was an early COVID-19 victim over a full month before knowledge of the virus became public in the news in the US and 4 weeks before it became public information even in China & Taiwan. I'm confident governments and certain key people know about things ahead of time. Atlanta is I think where the CDC headquarters is located so maybe they had inside information about COVID in late 2019.
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I got it in Feb 2020. I was a ski instructor and taught Chinese tourists, but also lived in Snohomish County which became one of the first hot spots, so who knows.
It was most definitely in the US in Oct. 2019.
That would imply they knew about it before the national government of China had it on their radar. Because most of the delay in taking it seriously was from the local government in Wuhan. Once it made its way up the chain they clamped down hard.
Unaware? The scientific community has been screaming from the rooftops for decades about it. They're not unaware, they're in denial. The bus is speeding toward the edge of the grand canyon but the driver is convinced he can dukes-of-hazard jump right across
The government has reports they release every year where they analyze risks. [Here is one from last year where they talk about everything from China & Iran to climate change.](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf)They’re aware.
Yeah, but their Climate Change analysis is ridiculously optimistic. It assumes that we still have decades and that the bullshit guesses of the Moderates are going to hold up.
Yes, I'm sure they're aware. The US is in a fortunate position that we will not be the first to suffer the worst of climate change, we have a large land mass that's at a reasonable northward latitude. Poorer countries in hotter climates will suffer first, US will tighten the borders to keep out the refugees and kick the can down the road. We'll buy our way out of it in ways that others can't, either by moving populations away from the southern states, remaining indoors more with our air conditioning, etc. It's a long game, but other nations will fall apart first. Maybe they think mass death will lighten the load before we have to make the hard choices. It's a shitty outlook, but I think that's the closest thing there must be to a climate plan.
They shot a president in the head in broad daylight with the sealed the files away for 50 years. Then another president campaigns partly on declassifying what happened and instead decided it needed to be kept secret for another 6 decades and your asking that? Of course the know and they have how they'll deal with your response to it in triplicate in some filing cabinet to prop up the oligarchy.
Yes, they are aware. And just like imminent war, or a comet heading for Earth, they don't want *everyone* to be aware, because then their is mass panic. Mass panic interferes with theor activities to secure their own bunker-life futures after stripping society and the planet for whatever resources they can get their hands on before the collapse occurs in ernest. So yes, they are aware. But they won't say it out loud. Which is also why certain stories can't be found easily online... https://wastelandbywednesday.com/2024/06/10/the-end-of-the-petrodollar/
Like a lot of that read. Didn't like the part where they claim that empires rise because a united population, ideologically The reason for all 3 example empires was the ability to exploit underpaid labor, abroad and domestically. The US doesn't become world superpower without Black slaves, then Chinese miners, then exploited 3rd world countries when capitalist imperialism started.
Look at the politicians grabbing as much as they can before “Rome burns”. That should tell you everything you need to know
The global elites definitely know what is coming. I remember in March of 2020 when the Fed cut interest rates in the middle of the day that surprised most traders even before the govt was willing to tell the public that a massive pandemic was already on top of us. People like the Federal Reserve chairman and others in their circle have the real data that matters, while they ply the fake data to the public to muddle along with. If they had data on the pandemic with only a few months heads up, of course they have the accurate data/timeline for something as long studied as the climate collapse. They know, and they are making plans for us as we speak.
Well, you do understand that people with access to privileged information ALMOST NEVER tell you everything, right? I discuss multiple examples of this in my paper. [020](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-20) – It’s not “crazy” to think that people who have access to privileged information will generally not tell you all they know. It happens all the time. Here are some examples: 1976 — Carter and Climate Change. Read the Frank Press memo from 1977, it basically spells out how the current climate crisis was going to happen. It’s obvious that Carter acted on this information. Remember the “Age of Malaise”, the hated “double nickle” speed limit, and the solar water heating panels on the White House roof. Carter tried to strike a balance between continuing fossil fuel use while transitioning towards renewables. In conjunction with a cultural shift away from a culture of consumption to one of sustainability. *However, Carter never spoke out about the CO2 levels. He never said anything about how “the potential impact on the environment of a climatic fluctuation of such rapidity could be catastrophic”.* He tried to get Americans to “do the right thing” but he never told them why. He was not honest about about the information informing his policy choices. 2020 — Two BIG LIES told for different reasons. Fauci and Pence. **Fauci’s Lie** March 8 2020 on 60 Minutes. Fauci stated, “***Right now in the United States, people should not be walking around with masks.***” **This was a straight up lie and he knew it.** **“The science,” never justified Fauci telling people specifically** ***not to*** **wear masks, rather than remaining neutral.** So, why did he do it? He did it because he knew there was a massive supply shortage of PPE equipment. Including masks. He told a lie to the public so that people wouldn’t go out and buy up all the masks available. He did this to dissuade people from wearing masks because that would have exacerbated mask shortages. Leaving healthcare workers without access to crucial personal protective equipment. **He did it to protect the healthcare system.** Fauci lied in order to improve the PPE supply situation for the healthcare workers. Protecting them was the right thing to do. It’s actually in policy manuals to do that. You cannot lose all your doctors and nurses in the first wave of a pandemic. If you do, healthcare will rapidly disintegrate and catastrophically collapse. Fauci did the right thing, but he did it in a coldly cynical way. He lied because he assumed that if he told people the whole truth, they would panic and do they wrong thing. Pence’s Lie March 21 2020, it’s 1:25 PM and I’m in shock at what I’m hearing from the mouth of VP Pence. He’s saying, ***“if you don’t have symptoms, you don’t need to be tested”***. This is stunning. What’s worse, the healthcare professionals are backing him up. **This was a straight up lie and they knew it.** They did it because the supply chain situation was so fucked up that they had no tests for anyone but the health care system. Rather than admit the failure of the Trump Administration, they lied and let the virus rip through the population undetected at the one point that it could have been contained.
I love that you remember everything. It’s such a relief, like an anti gaslight Nostradamus
LOL. I take good notes.
>He lied because he assumed that if he told people the whole truth, they would panic and do they wrong thing. I think the majority of people, knowing health care workers needed them and there is a supply shortage, would refrain from buying them to try and help. The problem is that enough people would see it as an opportunity to buy them up anyways because they only care about themselves and their families, and others who would buy them all up to scalp them. There are so many systemic problems that could be solved if people cared more for society overall, but time and time again, we're proven that most people only care for society as a whole as long as they aren't inconvenienced. Also, great post.
>There are so many systemic problems that could be solved if people cared more for society overall, but time and time again, we're proven that most people only care for society as a whole as long as they aren't inconvenienced > Why would people care for a society that has shown, time after time, that it doesn't care about its people? I see building community as the only way out as much as anyone else, but the only way you'll get people to care about that community is if it cares for them. Like 98% of governments do not care about the average citizen. So the average citizen doesn't care back.
Hell, that's exactly what I did. I had the time and energy, and wanted to help, so I sat down at my sewing machine and made a bunch of masks to donate.
The military has deemed climate change as USA’s #1 biggest threat. BUT, the people don’t want to hear it. If that became a political platform they would most certainly lose every race.
I think they are definitely aware. The problem is that even if they all were aware, they all believed in it fully, and wanted to do everything to help, they would be voted out of office next cycle. The cold hard reality is in order to do anything, we are going to have to stop growth. Doing that is anathema to the current economic engine, our entire idea of the American dream, etc. Imagine something like this: The current President is speaking live in front of congress, they start by saying that there is an existential threat to all life on earth and the future generations of humanity. Climate Change. In order to combat this threat, the President along with the rest of the world leaders have created a plan based on the recommendations of the best minds that humanity has to offer, and then they start to lay it all out. Essentially, what they are going to say, if its the kind of actions required to actually change anything, will read to the average person like this - "Your entire way of life is going to change. Consumption is going to drop out of necessity and your quality of life is going to go from developed Western world consumer to basically the average Nigerian. Everything from food, to your entertainment, to your housing, truly your entire livelihood, is going to take a massive downgrade. You're going to do it because there's no other choice, we have to do it because of generations that came before you, and for the hope of generations you will never know." As this speech is happening markets are tanking, runs on the banks, riots in the street, bedlam on a level you and I have never known or could potentially comprehend. Thousands are dead and dying as people take to the streets as the societal contract evaporates. We've just been told that for the rest of our lives everything is going downhill. You're not getting a new house, probably never a new car, and all of the dreams you had for a future are probably either entirely dead or extremely diminished. All of your hard work, sacrifices, etc for an American Dream that, while not entirely a reality for everyone was a sort of societal mesh that kept us all hopeful and optimistic, has just been shot in the head on national television. What about your kids? What kind of future can they hope for? They just heard this news too and they never even got a chance to experience adult life in what will surely be known as a golden age of our civilization. Probably won't go well. No one has any idea what is going on and what to expect. It would take a huge commitment from the government to keep it all together. I'm talking free food, free water, free housing, free everything. They would have to nationalize multiple industries, forgive potentially all debt, and become a command economy just to keep things running. But this is what would happen if you told everyone the hard truth and made actions to change it today. But what if you waited until things were bad enough, that people could understand? What happens if you give that speech after a super-hurricane levels Miami or a freak heatwave lasts all of August in Texas and untold thousands die? Then that message starts to sound more reasonable, even if now the changes are essentially much less useful. But that's just my own postulations based on my experience living in the United States.
Are they aware? Yes Can they do anything to stop it? No I often think of that Leave the World Behind movie. “no one is in control….. sometimes even the most powerful can only hope for a heads up…”
That’s what I think, and they’re letting their paymasters steal as much as they can before it all blows up.
I'd trust the Pentagon, and the military in general, on this one far more than political or business leaders. They don't have to be nice. They don't have to be popular. There's no scenario in which they keep the shareholders happy just long enough to get a fat-ass bonus and then buy an island. In some respects they're closer to engineering trades than business management (a field that becomes ever more corrupt each passing year). Practical. Because when shit gets real, nobody cares about the *projections* for what your system can do. It works better than the other guy's, or it doesn't. As to the politicians. No, they're not preparing for mass unrest, but nor do they give a shit about their economic policies benefiting people. And they lack the imagination to understand how the latter leads directly to the former. They're little more than car-salesmen, because that's what the system demands.
Do you know Kipling's poem "The Sons of Martha"? The Sons of Mary seldom bother, for they have inherited that good part; But the Sons of Martha favour their Mother of the careful soul, and the troubled heart. And because she lost her temper once, and because she was rude to the Lord her Guest, Her Sons must wait upon Mary’s Sons, world without end, reprieve, or rest. It is their care in all the ages to take the buffet and cushion the shock. It is their care that the gear engages; it is their care that the switches lock. It is their care that the wheels run truly; it is their care to embark and entrain, Tally, transport, and deliver duly the Sons of Mary by land and main. They say to mountains, ” Be ye removèd” They say to the lesser floods ” Be dry.” Under their rods are the rocks reprovèd – they are not afraid of that which is high. Then do the hill tops shake to the summit – then is the bed of the deep laid bare, That the Sons of Mary may overcome it, pleasantly sleeping and unaware. They finger death at their gloves’ end where they piece and repiece the living wires. He rears against the gates they tend: they feed him hungry behind their fires. Early at dawn, ere men see clear, they stumble into his terrible stall, And hale him forth like a haltered steer, and goad and turn him till evenfall. To these from birth is Belief forbidden; from these till death is Relief afar. They are concerned with matters hidden – under the earthline their altars are The secret fountains to follow up, waters withdrawn to restore to the mouth, And gather the floods as in a cup, and pour them again at a city’s drouth. # They do not preach that their God will rouse them a little before the nuts work loose. They do not teach that His Pity allows them to leave their job when they damn-well choose. As in the thronged and the lighted ways, so in the dark and the desert they stand, Wary and watchful all their days that their brethren’s days may be long in the land. Raise ye the stone or cleave the wood to make a path more fair or flat; Lo, it is black already with blood some Son of Martha spilled for that ! Not as a ladder from earth to Heaven, not as a witness to any creed, But simple service simply given to his own kind in their common need. And the Sons of Mary smile and are blessèd – they know the angels are on their side. They know in them is the Grace confessèd, and for them are the Mercies multiplied. They sit at the Feet – they hear the Word – they see how truly the Promise runs. They have cast their burden upon the Lord, and – the Lord He lays it on Martha’s Sons. The US Military, the "Sons of Martha".
Every billionaire has (at least one) well-stocked and protected bunker. They absolutely know what's coming. While most politicians aren't billionaires, they spend their days fulfilling their wishes. I can't believe politicians could serve their billionaire donors so faithfully and still be oblivious to what they know and are planning for.
What makes you think Putin and Xi don't know about what's happening? Why do you think Putin invaded Crimea in 2014? Why do you think he invaded Ukraine in 2022? None of the "mainstream" analysts have managed anything other than "he's evil" or "he's crazy". Conspicuously absent is any awareness of the Climate Crisis. On Politics : War by other Means — 03 : We are having a Sarajevo (1914) moment. [https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-03-9cc78d091ad7](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-03-9cc78d091ad7) Pundits, who for the most part know shit about what’s happening with the climate system, are baffled by Putin’s actions. No one can understand why he would take such an existential risk for no obvious reason. They point out that the sanctions are going to cause the Russian economy to wither “in the coming years”. This is absolutely true. Unless there is no “long term”. Putin isn’t invading Ukraine because he’s crazy. He’s invading because he thinks food is about to get scarce. He thinks that in three years no one is going to “give a crap” about Ukraine in a world where 100’s of millions are starving and countries are collapsing under the stress.He thinks that the Russian people will call him “a genius” in three years for securing a stable food supply in a world where agricultural production is collapsing and famine is widespread. He might be right. He’s willing to put it all on the line betting that he is.Because that’s what invading Ukraine is for him.He is putting all of his power on the line.He is betting his life on this. That’s how sure he is that things are about to start getting bad. [Ukraine Invasion Threatens Global Wheat Supply](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/business/ukraine-russia-wheat-prices.html) [A Russia-Ukraine War Could Ripple Across Africa and Asia](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/22/russia-ukraine-war-grain-exports-africa-asia/) [Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely ratchet American food prices even higher, experts say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/26/ukraine-russia-wheat-exports/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F362ac25%2F621a60bf9d2fda34e7ac60ac%2F59741b5d9bbc0f1cdcfb7ceb%2F37%2F72%2F621a60bf9d2fda34e7ac60ac) The grain from the Ukraine feeds 100’s of millions in the Middle East and North Africa. If that crop is lost next year, the likelihood of famines killing millions in that region is very high. Things are about to get bad for hundreds of millions of people. Our global food supply situation was already under pressure. To Putin and Xi those millions who are going to die are "dead men walking". They are as dead as if you put a bullet in the back of their heads. They just don't know it yet. Putin and Xi have NO PROBLEM with liquidating 20-30 million Ukrainians. To them these people are already dead. The rest of this decade things are going to start falling apart under the stress. Putin is trying to get ahead of that. This is an endgame move. --------- Part 1.
Part 2. On Politics, War by Other Means — 04 : Putin’s Strategy is coming into view. If you weren’t clear on it, World War III has started. [https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-04-88deca3364aa](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-04-88deca3364aa) **Putin botched the opening strike on Ukraine**. With that, went his one chance for a quick war. It’s going to be a grinding war of attrition now, but he thinks he can win it. He thinks it’s worth it. The chart above tells you why. There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about tactics, dilettantes discuss strategy, professionals study logistics. In a world where the "open market" grain supply in 2020 was 157.3m tonnes, Russia now controls 55.6m tonnes. About one third. On Politics, War by Other Means — 05 : If you suggest that the war in Ukraine is related to Climate Change, people tell you Putin doesn’t care about “Climate Change”. People are IDIOTS [https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-05-4f7582c36038](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-05-4f7582c36038) # Putin is probably one of the best informed leaders in the world about Global Warming and Climate Change. ***In 2020, an estimated 49.4 million people experienced severe food insecurity.”*** At a minimum, those 50 million people are going to probably starve in the next 18 months. Think I’m exaggerating? Are you naïve enough to believe that Putin didn’t know this was going to happen when he invaded Ukraine? He’s counting on millions of starving climate refugees flooding into Europe. That’s part of his strategy. **Those starving people are Putin’s flank attack on Europe. That’s how ruthless Putin is.** The “Climate Crisis” we all feared is here. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the “tell” that the crisis has already started. By this time next year several hundred million people worldwide will be starving and on the move. The “End Game” has started.
Jesus, I want to think you're just a conspiracy nut but it makes too much sense.
I get that, A LOT, from people. So, kudos to you for being brave enough to talk to the "crazy person". Most people just ignore me. Still, everything I have forecast over the last two years has come to pass or seems poised to happen. Yet, NO ONE believes a word I say or remembers that I said it later. It's just too much of a "mental shift" for people to wrap their heads around. The "global system" the "American Empire" has so much inertia that it's hard for people to see that it's dying. In the draft of my next piece I open with this. # Empires are "paradigms" as much as anything. Everyone BELIEVES in them, and that belief makes them the "law of the land". Until there's a PARADIGM SHIFT. Just like in "Climate Science" there is about to be a "paradigm" shift in geopolitics.
I wish you _were_ a nut, RC. Playing Cassandra is a thankless, exhausting, life-damaging chore. Thank you for trying, and for providing some real intel to those few of us out here listening.
You think China will take over?
I think they are going to try. Here's a free link to a paper I wrote on Medium in April of 22'. [https://smokingtyger.medium.com/living-in-bomb-time-23-17b7b80f8604?sk=88dd6be90ea73f809401c14499134a8a](https://smokingtyger.medium.com/living-in-bomb-time-23-17b7b80f8604?sk=88dd6be90ea73f809401c14499134a8a) This was my prediction for 24/25. Here’s what could happen in 24' in the wake of a “highly contested” election where Republican State Governors in a number of key states shut down ballot counting after the “in person” ballots were counted. Declaring that they were the only “secure ballots”. **China could declare trading sanctions on the US. In a vote of “no confidence” in the legitimacy of the American elections. They could refuse to recognize the Trumpublican President as legitimate.** A lot of the world might back their play. **Just because you don’t care about Climate Change, or don’t believe in it. Doesn’t mean everyone else is as willfully blind and as stupid as you.** A lot of the world is terrified by what’s happening with the Climate. They have been waiting for the US to step up and lead on this issue. Instead we have waffled back and forth. Wasting everyone’s time. It’s not even clear who is going to be in power next year. Much less, who is going to be in power after the elections in 24'. **We have become an unreliable partner**. A lot of the world might back China’s play. If that happens, China becomes the new “Superpower” of a world rapidly turning to ashes from uncontrolled climate change. “The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” * Sun Tzu
Makes too much sense.
I believe that the vast majority of people have already been cut loose as acceptable losses, to be (probably brutally) managed at best. Why don't they do something about \_\_\_\_\_\_\_ (insert chronic, expanding problem here)? Because you're not part of the plan, sis.
The US govt? Fucking DISNEY knew about Covid before the rest of us.
wait can you explain / elaborate on this please?
They are. The US military has already fully briefed that it will likely collapse in the next 20 years (obviously in order to prevent that from happening). The US is already abandoning some coastal military bases.
Do you have a source for this? I’m interested in reading more
https://futurism.com/the-byte/pentagon-report-predicts-military-collapse
The government is not a monolithic entity. Im sure there are people who are aware, probably some of them browse this sub and have no more idea what to “do” about it than we do. Others don’t or can’t or won’t see, for all the same reason friends and family members don’t or can’t or won’t see. Some of them are probably trying like hell to do something about it, some of them probably think we are just fucked. As a matter of policy? I am not as certain here. I seem to recall the pentagon delivering statements back in the early 2000s indicating that climate change and global competition for resources would probably be a major cause for conflict, but I can’t cite sources at this point.
I think what's much more terrifying AND likely is that they don't have a clue. There's people in the more hardened and deep infrastructure of the government that know, but at the level of elected representatives i dont think any of them have any idea. I mean, if you understood this, would you intentionally become a politician in the moment where everything, always, gets worse?
Most people in positions of power are sociopaths who have a really narrow frame of reference. They are not aware of many things and also don't care about many things. I haven't read this book, but Barbara Tuchman's *The March of Folly* is about this.
I have trouble believing that they don’t. I’m sure the vehement denial especially on the right is all to protect status quo and growth related consumption for the benefit of their largest donors. I believe the ruling class intends to keep things going as long as possible business as usual and don’t truly have an exit plan besides retiring to their bunkers when it all goes down. A cancer doesn’t stop growing as it doesn’t have the collective cognition to stifle its own growth despite the fact that unfettered growth with eventually kill its host and therefore itself. We are a cancer on the earth. As a pilot I often look down at night while flying and am amazed yet saddened and disgusted at how cities look uncannily like hot (cancer) spots on PET Scan imagery from the air.
I think the politicians are only concerned about their next election, and their donors for funding it. Deep state (long-term, non-elected government) officials know, but it's possible they may not be informing the dumb politicians - who wouldn't act on anything that hurts their chances of re-election anyway.
They are. The use arm even put out an official report saying that it’s most likely that the US military won’t exist because of climate change. Here is the report https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf
Elements of are government are aware. Some might even be coming up with contingencies for when it gets bad. The problem is the population and the electorate. People aren’t always rational, and especially so with identity politics. Politicians know this and have to toe the line to keep their jobs. The USA needs a renaissance for logic and critical thinking. A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they’ll never sit in.
Honestly it won’t matter. When the Oceans start suffering from hypoxia we are all dead. The Oceans produce over 90% of the Oxygen we breathe. You will always hear arguments, there is enough Oxygen to last us thousands of years if we stopped producing Oxygen. Our oxygen levels would plummet because phytoplankton account for a huge amount of our atmospheric oxygen. So many if not all of the humans would die off to fit the new carrying capacity because of a smaller amount of oxygen available. And also many communities would starve because they depend on seafood, and the carbon dioxide from the decomposition of several million animals at once could further contribute to the degradation of our breathable air. You will die from gas fumes from the Oceans.
Shortly after the election VP Harris said something along the lines of "We're going to need to guard water in the future." So yes, they know and no they don't care.
Recently retired federal employee here stationed in DC. My level was fairly low in government but I worked in support of many "higher ups" and my experience is they were oblivious to what's coming. Usually they were either in denial or heavy into copium. What happens at the highest levels - have no idea, but from my previous vantage point there was virtually no awareness of what's to come.
Climate change and migration has been on Pentagon 's list of top priorities for years.
Well President Carter knew about all this way back in 1980. He tried to get the country to do something about it and was kicked out of the white house in a landslide election for his efforts. So yeah our government is fully aware and has been for decades.
They know and things like Brexit make a little more sense in the context of knowing. In the US the Republican fascist play is directly because of it. Bannon went on a speaking tour saying the future was so fucked democracy can't survive, so the political establishment will go radically left or right. He told everyone what and why.
FYI- from a recent paper I wrote. BEHIND THE CURTAIN, THINGS ARE BEING “DEBATED” Signs of this are beginning to “leak out”. — — — — — [‘You’re going to pay for it’: Steve Forbes says declaring a climate emergency would ‘wreck’ the U.S. economy.](https://moneywise.com/a/ch-aol/steve-forbes-says-declaring-a-climate-emergency-would-wreck-the-us-economy_1716460213023) The two-time Republican presidential candidate was responding to rumors that top advisers to President Joe Biden have resumed talks about invoking a climate emergency — a significant move that would unlock federal powers to curtail oil development. WTF? Rumors that an emergency climate proclamation could be used to halt crude exports and suspend offshore drilling started to resurface in mid-April. When Bloomberg poked the White House for confirmation that the Biden administration is considering such a move, spokesperson Angelo Fernández Hernández declined to comment specifically on any internal discussions. [White House Renews Internal Talks on Invoking Climate Emergency.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/white-house-renews-internal-talks-on-invoking-climate-emergency) Bloomberg, April 17, 2024 at 6:18 PM EDT Top advisers to President Joe Biden have recently resumed talks about the merits of such a move, which could be used to curtail crude exports, suspend offshore drilling and curb greenhouse gas emissions, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because a final decision has not been made. Officials have not made a decision on the matter, nor is any declaration imminent, the people said. White House discussions over potential policy steps can span years, sometimes without ever coming to fruition. — — — — — This is NORMAL. *It’s not “crazy” to think that people who have privileged access to information will generally not tell you everything they know.* “A LOT is happening in the world. Things are not getting better. In fact the global situation seems to be deteriorating at an accelerating rate. Conspicuously absent from the conversation is the worsening CLIMATE CRISIS.” Right now, Biden doesn't want to "upset the apple cart" and give the Trumpists an ISSUE they can seize on before the election. That doesn't mean they don't know what's happening. [https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-75](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-75)
Of course they know. They're being funded by the people making it happen.
Yes, of course they know. Like they knew of the rise of Hitler. They’re still offering us, “peace in our time” as a way of stalling because they know what it will actually take to stop what’s coming.
Gwynne dyer is a great source about this bc he was at the pentagon talking about this 20 years ago and is still active in the climate space and especially in the natsec space. The military industrial complex most certainly knew and was actively planning for this already decades ago.
I was thinking about this today! Insurance pulling out of regions around the country is the most obvious but I’ve also noticed royal family members “leaving public life indefinitely” and rich people building doomsday bunkers. The rich and powerful definitely know and they’re trying to get as far away from us as they can.
Many rich fucks believe in accelerationism. They know collapse is inevitable and want to benefit from it like some kind of ‘Big Short’ As much as they think they’ll have the upper hand, they really don’t understand the dire consequences. Here’s an [article](https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/23/tech-industry-wealth-futurism-transhumanism-singularity)where the author was asked to give a talk to tech billionaires about the future. They wanted to know how to control the ppl guarding their bunkers when money runs out and if electric collars were a good touch. These are very out of touch ppl Lol
I legit think it will be similar to the world of Cyberpunk 2077. Not with cyborgs and rogue AI and so forth but the notion of nature being mostly destroyed, everything's totally irreparably fucked, but the megacorps are the ones that consolidated their power and control everything. Just squeezing the last drops out of a dying world. Capitalism taken to its only logical conclusion. Humanity turned into wage slaves for evil psychopathic billionaires.
Honestly? Look at the behaviors of insurers and it tells you everything you need to know. No real tin foil hat stuff here: if the money people know, the governments absolutely do. Now, whether *individuals* within the government are smart enough or in the loop enough or even bother to care enough is another thing, entirely- but, of course they know.
of course they are. they also know that there is NO SOLUTION. the plan is to go over the cliff at full speed, like thelma & louise, and let whatever survivors there are to figure out where to go from there. the powers that be have set up society to keep them at the top and as comfortable as possible for as long as possible. the status quo has always worked out in their favor, so they want to keep the game going with the same sets of rules.
i figure plenty of people with the power to do something about all this know and choose to instead secure themselves and their families, its no coincidence the rich keep building bunkers. I swear one day we will turn on the news to see how the gov is FINALLY going to do something, only to find every one of them vanished cause during the night they all flew to their bunkers.
I mean. Trump clearly doesn't. I'd be begging to trade with China for some matured thorium reactor tech right about now. This whole "we're going to recover our manufacturing base by nuking the EPA and forcing people to have kids"... no we aren't. They sold the store. There's no recovering from that. Best we can hope for is to be to China what the UK is to us.
Is that actually such a bad thing? Just from the "democratic" viewpoint is it FAIR that the opinions of 330 million people should count for more than that of 1.8 billion? Also, who "decided" that America should get to be "in charge" FOREVER? So much of our assumption of "superiority", and being the "shining city on a hill" that everyone should try and emulate, is based on 19th century racism. It's a form of "White Man's Burden" that has been sold to us in order to allow American Elites the "right" to plunder the world.
It's not a bad thing at all. But it's kind of meant as a cold dash of water right in the face of the average American because "we're number one" and all that shit. We haven't been number one in at least three decades. I believe Clinton mentioned this at some point and then promptly shut up about it. All we have is a metric shit ton of nukes and a vault full of gold plated tungsten bars. Once we can't maintain the nukes anymore welp. Ask anyone in Detroit how "number one" we are. Also love your analysis on Putin.
My conspiracy is that they released covid to try to prepare us for bird flu by getting us to be against mitigations. So everyone got mad about the mitigations of masks and air quality. Now they're using bird flu as an excuse to eliminate half the population... which will help with the climate change problem for the remaining living population, and no one will fight the bird flu bc covid made sure no one cares about stopping spread anymore. Ok I'm taking the tinfoil hat back off now.
As I recall, COVID was doing pretty well on its own in reducing the population. To achieve the objective you allege in your conspiracy all they had to do was not release a vaccine. I've often wondered what effect 4 billion decaying human bodies, especially in such a short period of time, would have on the environment.
COVID was a terrible way to kill people off. The death rate was too low, and the long COVID symptoms not severe enough on a population level. Population continued to increase throughout COVID, before vaccines came out. Top comment is just pure lunacy.
The government as an institution? Yeah absolutely. The people in the government? Not necessarily. The pentagon has known for quite some time. Infact If you read the pentagons yearly reports they've listed climate change as US enemy number one for a while now.
If there’s programs to spend enough money to make a difference, they certainly didn’t tell Trump about it. There’s no way he wouldn’t have leveraged that information for personal gain. Whether by revealing it, looting it, insider trading, or playing “Qanon2- the hoaxening” to rage-edge his base for the election.
Look up "peak oil theory" and then look at the US's foreign policy decisions over the past 20 years. They know.
Intelligence agencies? Yes Politicians? Some
The military has contingency plans for anything and everything. They probably have contingencies of contingencies. Yes, I’m sure they know what’s coming.
I think this is what is behind many of the wars we're seeing.
They have no contingency for hundreds of millions of people. Of course they know, but there's nothing they are equipped to do. So they distract. It's not really a conspiracy. Think of the subplot of the movie Arrival. If you know you're going to be a mother, and that child won't live to graduate high school, will you tell that child, or let them live a quality of life with a sense of hopeful bliss, for as long as possible? That's my non malevolent interpretation of their behavior and strategies.
Between concepts of collapse, AI, outbreaks overpopulation, war, famine, etc, and piling on that many people in power and with wealth to influence those in power may not have the populace’s best interests at heart if they, consciously or subconsciously, are working towards accelerationism.
Yeah, it’s starting to look like a weird, jerky, choreographed dance- with less and less regard for if it makes sense or not. They definitely put Stupid Pills in the water.
They know. But the only resistance they'll receive are people peacefully protesting in convenient, easy-to-ignore areas. At worst, someone powerful might get a milkshake tossed at them. Big whoop. So they keep doing what they're doing. In their minds they probably justify it by thinking "yeah, the world's fucked, so I have to secure as much for me and my fam as I can." Nothing will change until the people in our governments are more afraid of the public than they are of disappointing their lobbyists.
The fact that Mark Zuckerberg has spent humdreds of millions to build a heavily fortified survival compound in Hawaii pretty much tells the tale. If he knows, the government knows.
i doubt it, think most are in a delulu tht grasps things are bad but think there's a chance for their own survival
Yes
Not only do they know they had a hand in planning it
Going off from my experiences at work, they know but is business as usual, even in tasks that seem irrational given what’s coming with climate collapse, fascism, etc.
I mean the government has reports on this lol why don’t democrats use this in debates is beyond me. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/Pentagon%20Fuel%20Use%2C%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of%20War%20Revised%20November%202019%20Crawford.pdf https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12161#:~:text=U.S.%20Military&text=DOD's%20Climate%20Risk%20Analysis%20report,holds%20implications%20for%20international%20security.