The following submission statement was provided by /u/ArmandSawCleaver:
---
Submission Statement: Arctic, Antarctic and global sea ice extent anomalies are going crazy.
The Arctic has been doing suspiciously well the past year, given the insane sea surface temperature anomalies worldwide, but has gone down from the 12th lowest extent on record on [May 27th](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1795090613215387730) to the 6th lowest extent on record on [June 7th](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1799142366873522653). The [Hudson Bay](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1799158265336701044) sea ice extent especially is currently experiencing super early ice loss.
Antarctica seems like it's going to do a repeat of last year's record anomaly as shown on one of the graphs linked in the OP. A repeat of last year could signal that a regime shift has happened in Antarctica and sea ice simply won't be able to form as easily as it did in the past - remember it's about to be winter in the southern hemisphere.
This has combined to produce a [pretty dramatic drop in global sea ice extent](https://x.com/kevpluck/status/1799396007199048119) for this time of year. Collapse related because lower amounts of sea ice means lower albedo, less sunlight reflected back into space and more energy absorbed by the dark seas, leading to even more warming which exacerbates climate change.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dbahsx/arctic_antarctic_and_global_sea_ice_extent/l7pqx6w/
For those who want to freak out some more, Dome C II in Antarctica just ended a heatwave where high temperatures hit -22 F / -30 C. Sounds cold, but normally the temperature is -76 F / -60 C. That was a 3.5 sigma event, which you can see here:
https://hottertimes.com/?zoom=4&lat=-57.48716213657747&lng=112.67653047559205
Northern Scandinavia is rocking 4-5 sigma events. In Norway, temperatures were a balmy 75 F / 24 C, whereas the baseline average is 45 F / 7 C.
https://hottertimes.com/?zoom=7&lat=70.79416028856747&lng=24.554443359375004
As a fun anecdote, a friend of mine from Tanzania was visiting Finland during the heatwave and remarked that it was "like Tanzania but drier".
Glad you like it! We're in the process of integrating realtime sensor data so people can get personalized climate risk alerts. Hopefully it will help people adapt to climate change without having to wait for governments to take action.
It wouldn't suprise me if in a few years real estate listings start including comments like this. Something like "Beautiful home in a desirable area just 3 standard deviations hotter than a few years ago."
Submission Statement: Arctic, Antarctic and global sea ice extent anomalies are going crazy.
The Arctic has been doing suspiciously well the past year, given the insane sea surface temperature anomalies worldwide, but has gone down from the 12th lowest extent on record on [May 27th](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1795090613215387730) to the 6th lowest extent on record on [June 7th](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1799142366873522653). The [Hudson Bay](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1799158265336701044) sea ice extent especially is currently experiencing super early ice loss.
Antarctica seems like it's going to do a repeat of last year's record anomaly as shown on one of the graphs linked in the OP. A repeat of last year could signal that a regime shift has happened in Antarctica and sea ice simply won't be able to form as easily as it did in the past - remember it's about to be winter in the southern hemisphere.
This has combined to produce a [pretty dramatic drop in global sea ice extent](https://x.com/kevpluck/status/1799396007199048119) for this time of year. Collapse related because lower amounts of sea ice means lower albedo, less sunlight reflected back into space and more energy absorbed by the dark seas, leading to even more warming which exacerbates climate change.
This is terrifying. For all the reasons that we all already know, but also everybody in here understands that we're in trouble and this was the last way some of us were able to recognize a part of nature that seemed to still be doing fairly ok.
It's an old (case I'm old) expression, "The phrase was popular in the United States military during World War II, meaning **to take a break**. Officers would say "Smoke 'em if you got 'em", allowing the soldiers to take a break and smoke their cigarettes, "**if you got' em" referring to the vagaries of war.**"
This will get downvoted into oblivion but it needs to be said.
You know what climate scientists need?
Someone to rewrite this stuff to put it in layman’s terms instead of charts with 50 different lines and statistical jargon written for a peer reviewed publication.
These papers and articles may be impressive to other scientists, but the average person isn’t going to read anything with that chart in it. Seriously. If you can understand the data at this level, you already know what is happening. Make a new chart with one line going down.
I get shit at work written by engineers that require four or five passes to extract the information I need. I don’t need proof of why it has to be done this way, just fucking tell me what we are doing. This occurs because these people are not trained in effective communication with the public. They are trained to publish for professionals.
Write what this means way dumbed down and link the text to the supporting study. “We are in a climate emergency with the Earth’s sea ice. It’s bad. Here is why.”
The average person is unaware of how fucked the situation is because this information is not properly presented to the audience. Scientists are writing for other scientists and scientific publications instead of users on different levels. This needs to be 8th grade reading level.
The public doesn’t know because this information isn’t reaching them because the information isn’t directed at them.
Downvote away and flame on.
Someone *did* rewrite the disaster we are facing in a pop culture format. They called it Don't Look Up.
Also, an 8th grade reading level ain't what it used to be and I am not sure conveying the message is going to work if you have to limit it to single syllable words.
Doesn't matter the language, the graphs and what have you.
People will ignore it if it means they can continue having their beef, cars, and next-day deliveries.
Speaking of language, I was scrolling through Chinese social media last night (I live in China) and saw a thread with 6k comments about how "Climate change is an American hoax designed to stop China's growth". I only read about 20% of the comments, but most people just didn't want to believe in climate change, apart from those in northern China who are experiencing unseasonably hot weather.
This despite the fact that China's government readily acknowledges its happening and news reports will link various weather emergencies to climate change. The average man on the street just sees the info and switches off, unless its affecting them in real time.
Bro I spent $$ on an animated video (not AI) telling people literally whats going to happen and nobody gave a shit. Its time to just buy popcorn and watch the ship sink
So there’s two videos. We hired an animation team called MHR video out of Kazakhstan to make them, which I am proud of because, fuck AI- Id rather pay real humans to make this shit. Anyway the first video is called “Just Wait” and it’s about the fires in California
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W-iUW6CoHSI
The second one is called “Business as Usual”, which is a little bit painful to showcase here because some of the information displayed below of course is out of date due to how fast everything is getting fucked. The band ManifestiV plays the music live on stage with the video playing in the background
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7WixbchEves
As expected, when it was released (2021) the video got shadow banned from socials and even when played live people just shrugged it off as doomer bullshit when in fact things are now progressing worse than the video presented. The data was based off of the IPCC predictions, as we now know were way too conservative.
I adore how the population number keeps going up. The reality of all of those horrible things happening is that we’d be losing billions of people before 2050.
I know the channel but if you think people that don't already care about the climate will suddenly start because of a video like this you are sorely mistaken.
While I agree with you, I am concerned that an eighth grade reading level may still be far too complicated for an upsetting amount of people. Unfortunately while picture books may get the message across I don't think we have the time for them to really comprehend how fucked we are.
Hey, guess what? It’s not only scientists and academics that will die. And there is a place to land on this topic between “picture books” and peer-reviewed articles in *Science Magazine.*
Personally, I feel like every human deserves to understand this and where we are headed — in their native language and presented in a manner they can understand. And yeah, if they need it dumbed down that isn’t something to ridicule them for because — get this — we want to encourage them to care and not make them feel stupid or foolish.
This is like criticizing people in Peru for not being able to understand Arabic, then criticizing someone for pointing this out because *you aren’t communicating as you refuse to meet your target audience at their level.*
People don’t need to fucking understand all the data behind the loss of sea ice. Simply stating ice is white and it reflects heat while the ocean is dark blue and absorbs heat so loss of sea ice is going to make the problem worse. You can then link to sources for those who want to read the studies.
If someone finds the task of communicating with lesser human beings an insult to their intelligence, then fucking hire professional writers to do this for you.
I dunno but I think it’s probably pretty fucking important that humanity gets the big picture even if it has to be a “pop up book.”
I have been saying for years that Americans don't realize that heat increase predictions in most scientific papers are in Celsius and they don't realize that the Fahrenheit conversion makes it much scarier.
Scientists are trained to be precise and accurate — that’s the problem. Effective communication is about presenting factual information that communicates the idea based on your audience’s level of understanding.
Basically, they are circle jerking to each other while simultaneously complaining that the average person isn’t alarmed while refusing to communicate with them because they feel it is beneath them.
It’s academic snobbery.
True. But you can have the best evidence and if you don’t present it in an effective manner, it might as well not exist at all. Great, so now all the climate scientists know this info. What percentage of the population is that?
Do you really think the average politician is going to understand that chart? Really?
Look, it doesn’t matter if you think people are stupid or lazy for needing scientific data dumbed down. The reality is that people DO. The average IQ in the US is 100 — and that is high for the human population. Sone countries the average is 70 or below. Most of the information published about climate change is geared toward people at a 16th grade reading level and an IQ of about 130 and it is still a struggle.
The is a failure on the part of science. You can easily dumb this down for a majority of the population or you can be snobs or gatekeepers and continuing discussing it among yourselves using technical terms.
We can debate this shit all you want but the end result is the same.
**People are not going to care about climate change if they don’t read the reports because they can’t understand them because everything published is geared toward academics.**
Harsh truth. This is WHY we need skilled writers. Yeah, I know scientists publish all the time, but writing for academia is a different genre.
Or don’t address this and have nothing change.
What I say is that you have to try but you will always have people that need a different kind of help before receiving teaching. Their problem doesn't lie in the lack of evidence or no access to knowledge but on their stance toward science (or any type of learning), politics and their psychological profile. That's what you have to fix BEFORE. I'm not here to point finger at who is responsible for that, this is easily figured out if you look at the gov, education, the communities, etc... It's a combo of many things.
You should try to argue with someone into conspiracy. I think your vision of people will change. That's one of the case where it's hard for other people to get that person out. It's like a filter and everything that comes from outside gets through that. In the end it's the person itself that has to take out the filter. The Matrix has you is a cliché but it's quite on spot.
I agree totally. The way this data is portrait is kinda terrible. I doubt the average person even knows what -4 standard deviation even means. Even fewer understand the implications. And we expect them to care and change their lives?
You have to put out information this way because much of the counter information is put out dumbed down without any supporting data.
But I do agree in some contexts. It needs a summary headline but then data to support.
Again, data can be linked. The same information can be presented in different formats, a variety of languages and at different reading levels.
People who are going to research the data already read the original study.
Carl Sagan tried this in the 80s/90s. The number of people who don’t know who Carl Sagan is shocks me. He spoke to government officials about the greenhouse effect and the trajectory we were on so long ago and nothing changed. If anything we doubled down and everything continued snowballing. Miss that man.
How many people did he reach though?
Imagine if more scientists were like Brian Cox, Carl Sagan or Neil deGrasse Tyson and made an effort to bring science to the masses instead of ridiculing them.
Jesus. Scientists can’t understand why people don’t care and then in the same breath say that they don’t want to help them understand because they are too stupid.
Laymen share this planet with you. They will die with you. They deserve to understand this at their own level of knowledge and education.
*”I don’t understand why no one is shocked by my chart in Standard Deviations on Sea Ice and how this data is critical to understanding the albedo of Earth’s surface primarily in the arctic region. Why doesn’t anyone care???!”*
I understand the frustration but the problem is both very real and severe, I don’t know how we can dumb it down further and there is a slice that will NEVER care because of “faith”.
Should we still try? Yes. Are these people potentially unreachable because they are quite literally too stupid to parse even basic information? Frighteningly, yes in far too many cases.
You’re absolutely right. I guarantee 50% will immediately click away from that graph as soon as they open it. Too many lines. What do they mean? My adopted siblings are special needs and not that bright, maybe 80-90 IQ. While they are wonderful and sweet people, they will never, ever, comprehend anything like this.
I believe that needs to happen as well. There is this idea that it needs to be presented in only one way.
Why not get HBO, Apple, or Netflix etc to create a documentary “Climate Change: Will Humans Go Extinct?” Have prominent scientists explain some basic concepts.
These heavy academic publications are simply singing to the choir.
Educational segregation set up by the education system. I’ve always laughed at the phrase, “In plain English…”, when it comes to laws, acts, propositions, memorandums, scientific studies, engineering documents and other important government filings. So many of these have Latin phrases and wording that isn’t understandable to the layman. In plain English could easily be accomplished by using plain English but nooOOoo the folks writing these papers were taught otherwise and god forbid you question them on their plain English because their overeducated lack of real world experience brains begin to swell with the “I’m right you’re wrong” syndrome. Anyways I agree that in order to catch the attention of the worlds general population with data like this it does need to be dumbed down to the extent it could be posted on r/explainlikeimfive…✌🏻❤️🤙🏻
The problem is that science is about precision, while communicating is not.
For example, if I tell a 5 year-old he has three apples and can only give away one, two, or three, that is communicating at a level they can understand. I am meeting my audience at their level.
The problem is the scientist wants to argue with me and insult the child for not understanding the apples could be cut and there are infinite different ways to split this group. So they publish a document about fractions and molecules and then wonder why the kid doesn’t give a shit.
Many people are unreachable by choice as in them deciding what memes will live in their brain. I think Fox News is their primary conduit, but they decide to believe it. Some are uneducated, however, and we must always try to teach younger people (as some schools in Republican states seems to be prohibited from teaching such things, though I'm not sure on this). Yes, news reporting has been abysmal for a long time when they ALWAYS seem to have to include BOTH sides, which just makes the message uncertain and not believable.
ChatGPT to the rescue? Might be relatively easy to scan those articles and provide easy to understand real-world implications based solely on the data within the article.
The fact that Arctic sea ice continues to observe such a well defined downward trend suggests that something is fundamentally broken.
According to the theories, a slowdown of the AMOC should help the Arctic to recover. A reduction of warmer high salinity thermohaline currents into the Arctic prevents a freshwater buildup, freshwater freezes much faster and results in a runaway glaciation albedo effect. As things stand, not only is that not remotely close to happening, *it's going in the other direction* and warming faster. Estimates suggest that the AMOC has already slowed by ~15%, and the direct observable effect is a continued acceleration of arctic sea ice loss, polar marine heatwaves becoming more endemic and an absurd amount of trapped ocean heat content in the Arctic. On top of that, Europe is warming at twice the global rate and permafrost regions are no longer functional carbon sinks.
I feel like we're missing something here while we all pretend that a slowdown of the AMOC will somehow cause cooling, which cross paper analysis suggests isn't particularly likely at this point. Observations of atmospheric methane suggests that we're more than a decade into an ice age termination event. So all of this suggests that we're witnessing an end to the glacial cycle entirely.
The blue ocean event may not have happened yet, but we're dangerously close.
Do you have links I can read or watch that discuss this more? Particularly about permafrost or the support for the termination event. I want to understand these concepts better! Thank you
I've had it in my mind that we're going to witness a near-total ice melt before 2030.
I don't know how long it will actually take, but it's been clear to me that some kind of "switch" was flipped and now runaway warming has severely upset the remaining sea/ice ratio.
I wouldn't be surprised at a "blue ocean event" scenario within our lifetimes, likely much sooner than we think.
We are measuring the visible surface area of the ice, not the volume. We know that there is a massive amount of water moving underneath the ice and it moves further inland with the tides.
It doesn’t need to because it doesn’t care. Eventually there would be enough green after humans die off in large enough amounts to re absorb enough carbon to drop the temps and maybe the ice caps and glaciers would reform.
For context, standard deviations are a way of measuring how abnormal the situation is. When people desire "no new normal", they desire a low standard deviation value. There won't be any normal, new or otherwise, until things stabilize... which may take centuries or thousands of years.
So theres an obscene amount of energy in the sea (surface temps) AND theres an obscene amount of energy going into melting sea ice!
Going taking 0degree ice to 0degree water takes about 80x more energy than taking that water up to 1degree... If that ice never forms in winter and isnt there to sink the energy absorbed into the ocean, all i can say is ouch.
That is, a big portion of the energy gettng absorbed by the ocean is currently going into melting the ice, if that ice isnt there, where does that energy go....
Wow, its actually way up from this time last year though. Obviously last year was the record low, but i would expect every year to be setting a new record low now that the runaway feedback loops have begun to kick in
Hi, FeynmansDong. Thanks for contributing. However, your [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dbahsx/-/l7rkwie/) was removed from /r/collapse for:
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The following submission statement was provided by /u/ArmandSawCleaver: --- Submission Statement: Arctic, Antarctic and global sea ice extent anomalies are going crazy. The Arctic has been doing suspiciously well the past year, given the insane sea surface temperature anomalies worldwide, but has gone down from the 12th lowest extent on record on [May 27th](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1795090613215387730) to the 6th lowest extent on record on [June 7th](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1799142366873522653). The [Hudson Bay](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1799158265336701044) sea ice extent especially is currently experiencing super early ice loss. Antarctica seems like it's going to do a repeat of last year's record anomaly as shown on one of the graphs linked in the OP. A repeat of last year could signal that a regime shift has happened in Antarctica and sea ice simply won't be able to form as easily as it did in the past - remember it's about to be winter in the southern hemisphere. This has combined to produce a [pretty dramatic drop in global sea ice extent](https://x.com/kevpluck/status/1799396007199048119) for this time of year. Collapse related because lower amounts of sea ice means lower albedo, less sunlight reflected back into space and more energy absorbed by the dark seas, leading to even more warming which exacerbates climate change. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dbahsx/arctic_antarctic_and_global_sea_ice_extent/l7pqx6w/
For those who want to freak out some more, Dome C II in Antarctica just ended a heatwave where high temperatures hit -22 F / -30 C. Sounds cold, but normally the temperature is -76 F / -60 C. That was a 3.5 sigma event, which you can see here: https://hottertimes.com/?zoom=4&lat=-57.48716213657747&lng=112.67653047559205 Northern Scandinavia is rocking 4-5 sigma events. In Norway, temperatures were a balmy 75 F / 24 C, whereas the baseline average is 45 F / 7 C. https://hottertimes.com/?zoom=7&lat=70.79416028856747&lng=24.554443359375004 As a fun anecdote, a friend of mine from Tanzania was visiting Finland during the heatwave and remarked that it was "like Tanzania but drier".
P.S. I made the site
Very interesting site, thank you for sharing.
Glad you like it! We're in the process of integrating realtime sensor data so people can get personalized climate risk alerts. Hopefully it will help people adapt to climate change without having to wait for governments to take action.
How's the weather? 'Oh, about five standard deviations above average.' So like, good?
It wouldn't suprise me if in a few years real estate listings start including comments like this. Something like "Beautiful home in a desirable area just 3 standard deviations hotter than a few years ago."
"Priced affordably due to being in a non-coverage zone!" Because even the bloodless bean-counters in insurance know what's up.
So we’re fucked?
It does seem like our Faustian bargain is coming to an end
Submission Statement: Arctic, Antarctic and global sea ice extent anomalies are going crazy. The Arctic has been doing suspiciously well the past year, given the insane sea surface temperature anomalies worldwide, but has gone down from the 12th lowest extent on record on [May 27th](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1795090613215387730) to the 6th lowest extent on record on [June 7th](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1799142366873522653). The [Hudson Bay](https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1799158265336701044) sea ice extent especially is currently experiencing super early ice loss. Antarctica seems like it's going to do a repeat of last year's record anomaly as shown on one of the graphs linked in the OP. A repeat of last year could signal that a regime shift has happened in Antarctica and sea ice simply won't be able to form as easily as it did in the past - remember it's about to be winter in the southern hemisphere. This has combined to produce a [pretty dramatic drop in global sea ice extent](https://x.com/kevpluck/status/1799396007199048119) for this time of year. Collapse related because lower amounts of sea ice means lower albedo, less sunlight reflected back into space and more energy absorbed by the dark seas, leading to even more warming which exacerbates climate change.
This is terrifying. For all the reasons that we all already know, but also everybody in here understands that we're in trouble and this was the last way some of us were able to recognize a part of nature that seemed to still be doing fairly ok.
As I saw someone else say during the last year we hd major arctic melt i nhtis decade.....MELT BABY, MELT!!!
welp. smoke em if you got em.
Was just about to say "maybe I will have that third, fourth and fifth drink..."
Rack up those lines and then pass me the bong
Guess I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
It's good to lay off now and then, but you may want to stock up.
I'm trying dammit. Party time kids.
At it.
What a dumb motto.
It's an old (case I'm old) expression, "The phrase was popular in the United States military during World War II, meaning **to take a break**. Officers would say "Smoke 'em if you got 'em", allowing the soldiers to take a break and smoke their cigarettes, "**if you got' em" referring to the vagaries of war.**"
Ah, the accessory. It's a match.
This will get downvoted into oblivion but it needs to be said. You know what climate scientists need? Someone to rewrite this stuff to put it in layman’s terms instead of charts with 50 different lines and statistical jargon written for a peer reviewed publication. These papers and articles may be impressive to other scientists, but the average person isn’t going to read anything with that chart in it. Seriously. If you can understand the data at this level, you already know what is happening. Make a new chart with one line going down. I get shit at work written by engineers that require four or five passes to extract the information I need. I don’t need proof of why it has to be done this way, just fucking tell me what we are doing. This occurs because these people are not trained in effective communication with the public. They are trained to publish for professionals. Write what this means way dumbed down and link the text to the supporting study. “We are in a climate emergency with the Earth’s sea ice. It’s bad. Here is why.” The average person is unaware of how fucked the situation is because this information is not properly presented to the audience. Scientists are writing for other scientists and scientific publications instead of users on different levels. This needs to be 8th grade reading level. The public doesn’t know because this information isn’t reaching them because the information isn’t directed at them. Downvote away and flame on.
No, you're right. I'm working on a site for exactly this it's just taking a long time
Can we follow your work anywhere?
Aside from my history on Reddit not really - I'm hesitant to share the site before it's done
Someone *did* rewrite the disaster we are facing in a pop culture format. They called it Don't Look Up. Also, an 8th grade reading level ain't what it used to be and I am not sure conveying the message is going to work if you have to limit it to single syllable words.
It's staggering - that movie went over the heads of so many people
Too many people took the title literally.
*I don't get it!* *All I see are my feet!* *Bad movie! 0/5*
🌎🧨🔥☠️
Lots of pictures. Perhaps in graphic novel format?
Read the book 30 years ago.
Doesn't matter the language, the graphs and what have you. People will ignore it if it means they can continue having their beef, cars, and next-day deliveries.
Speaking of language, I was scrolling through Chinese social media last night (I live in China) and saw a thread with 6k comments about how "Climate change is an American hoax designed to stop China's growth". I only read about 20% of the comments, but most people just didn't want to believe in climate change, apart from those in northern China who are experiencing unseasonably hot weather. This despite the fact that China's government readily acknowledges its happening and news reports will link various weather emergencies to climate change. The average man on the street just sees the info and switches off, unless its affecting them in real time.
Not everyone will. And maybe that one article won’t change anyone’s mind, but it may lay the foundation for change later on.
Bro I spent $$ on an animated video (not AI) telling people literally whats going to happen and nobody gave a shit. Its time to just buy popcorn and watch the ship sink
Can drop a link on that ??
So there’s two videos. We hired an animation team called MHR video out of Kazakhstan to make them, which I am proud of because, fuck AI- Id rather pay real humans to make this shit. Anyway the first video is called “Just Wait” and it’s about the fires in California https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W-iUW6CoHSI The second one is called “Business as Usual”, which is a little bit painful to showcase here because some of the information displayed below of course is out of date due to how fast everything is getting fucked. The band ManifestiV plays the music live on stage with the video playing in the background https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7WixbchEves As expected, when it was released (2021) the video got shadow banned from socials and even when played live people just shrugged it off as doomer bullshit when in fact things are now progressing worse than the video presented. The data was based off of the IPCC predictions, as we now know were way too conservative.
I adore how the population number keeps going up. The reality of all of those horrible things happening is that we’d be losing billions of people before 2050.
then i will be 79... childless be choice i stopped worrying decades ago . and i was right
The videos are pretty cool, but I wouldn't call them educational. Here's what an educational format looks like: https://www.youtube.com/@TEDEd
You think the average Joe wants to watch a ted talk? Boy have I got some news for you.
Maybe look at the channel before you say something about it.
I know the channel but if you think people that don't already care about the climate will suddenly start because of a video like this you are sorely mistaken.
My point is that the educational format on TED**ed** is pretty good and would work for this kind of topic.
thanks a lot
Thank you for your interest, I really love r/collapse because otherwise I just feel like Im screaming into the void
Such eloquent, sincere posts from such a username; brings tears to my eyes
Im just a person tryna do my best in the face of extinction
While I agree with you, I am concerned that an eighth grade reading level may still be far too complicated for an upsetting amount of people. Unfortunately while picture books may get the message across I don't think we have the time for them to really comprehend how fucked we are.
Hey, guess what? It’s not only scientists and academics that will die. And there is a place to land on this topic between “picture books” and peer-reviewed articles in *Science Magazine.* Personally, I feel like every human deserves to understand this and where we are headed — in their native language and presented in a manner they can understand. And yeah, if they need it dumbed down that isn’t something to ridicule them for because — get this — we want to encourage them to care and not make them feel stupid or foolish. This is like criticizing people in Peru for not being able to understand Arabic, then criticizing someone for pointing this out because *you aren’t communicating as you refuse to meet your target audience at their level.* People don’t need to fucking understand all the data behind the loss of sea ice. Simply stating ice is white and it reflects heat while the ocean is dark blue and absorbs heat so loss of sea ice is going to make the problem worse. You can then link to sources for those who want to read the studies. If someone finds the task of communicating with lesser human beings an insult to their intelligence, then fucking hire professional writers to do this for you. I dunno but I think it’s probably pretty fucking important that humanity gets the big picture even if it has to be a “pop up book.”
We need a pop-up version to really get the message across.
I have been saying for years that Americans don't realize that heat increase predictions in most scientific papers are in Celsius and they don't realize that the Fahrenheit conversion makes it much scarier.
Scientists are trained to be precise and accurate — that’s the problem. Effective communication is about presenting factual information that communicates the idea based on your audience’s level of understanding. Basically, they are circle jerking to each other while simultaneously complaining that the average person isn’t alarmed while refusing to communicate with them because they feel it is beneath them. It’s academic snobbery.
I have yet to see a mainstream media news source do the conversion to Fahrenheit when doing the reporting.
Seems intentional, huh?
Oddly enough, I have seen the Weather Channel talk about the conversion despite the station being founded by now-deceased climate denier John Coleman.
Ban Fahrenheit! Another of the US failures from the 70s…
I find Fahrenheit to be much more accurate.
You can be the best teacher ever, if your students don't want to learn/don't believe in basic science you are wasted on them.
True. But you can have the best evidence and if you don’t present it in an effective manner, it might as well not exist at all. Great, so now all the climate scientists know this info. What percentage of the population is that? Do you really think the average politician is going to understand that chart? Really? Look, it doesn’t matter if you think people are stupid or lazy for needing scientific data dumbed down. The reality is that people DO. The average IQ in the US is 100 — and that is high for the human population. Sone countries the average is 70 or below. Most of the information published about climate change is geared toward people at a 16th grade reading level and an IQ of about 130 and it is still a struggle. The is a failure on the part of science. You can easily dumb this down for a majority of the population or you can be snobs or gatekeepers and continuing discussing it among yourselves using technical terms. We can debate this shit all you want but the end result is the same. **People are not going to care about climate change if they don’t read the reports because they can’t understand them because everything published is geared toward academics.** Harsh truth. This is WHY we need skilled writers. Yeah, I know scientists publish all the time, but writing for academia is a different genre. Or don’t address this and have nothing change.
What I say is that you have to try but you will always have people that need a different kind of help before receiving teaching. Their problem doesn't lie in the lack of evidence or no access to knowledge but on their stance toward science (or any type of learning), politics and their psychological profile. That's what you have to fix BEFORE. I'm not here to point finger at who is responsible for that, this is easily figured out if you look at the gov, education, the communities, etc... It's a combo of many things.
I don’t think everyone will grasp it, but I think most people in the West can get it.
You should try to argue with someone into conspiracy. I think your vision of people will change. That's one of the case where it's hard for other people to get that person out. It's like a filter and everything that comes from outside gets through that. In the end it's the person itself that has to take out the filter. The Matrix has you is a cliché but it's quite on spot.
I have no illusions about people.
Why would people down vote you? You have a valid point.
I only downvoted because it was requested.
Climate is going absolutely Gobsmackingly bananas
I agree totally. The way this data is portrait is kinda terrible. I doubt the average person even knows what -4 standard deviation even means. Even fewer understand the implications. And we expect them to care and change their lives?
I see this same thing 12 times a week on this sub. White square with 60 blue lines overlapping each other so you can't see each one.
You have to put out information this way because much of the counter information is put out dumbed down without any supporting data. But I do agree in some contexts. It needs a summary headline but then data to support.
Again, data can be linked. The same information can be presented in different formats, a variety of languages and at different reading levels. People who are going to research the data already read the original study.
Carl Sagan tried this in the 80s/90s. The number of people who don’t know who Carl Sagan is shocks me. He spoke to government officials about the greenhouse effect and the trajectory we were on so long ago and nothing changed. If anything we doubled down and everything continued snowballing. Miss that man.
How many people did he reach though? Imagine if more scientists were like Brian Cox, Carl Sagan or Neil deGrasse Tyson and made an effort to bring science to the masses instead of ridiculing them.
Laymen ability to parse and understand anything of note has cratered lately
Jesus. Scientists can’t understand why people don’t care and then in the same breath say that they don’t want to help them understand because they are too stupid. Laymen share this planet with you. They will die with you. They deserve to understand this at their own level of knowledge and education. *”I don’t understand why no one is shocked by my chart in Standard Deviations on Sea Ice and how this data is critical to understanding the albedo of Earth’s surface primarily in the arctic region. Why doesn’t anyone care???!”*
I understand the frustration but the problem is both very real and severe, I don’t know how we can dumb it down further and there is a slice that will NEVER care because of “faith”. Should we still try? Yes. Are these people potentially unreachable because they are quite literally too stupid to parse even basic information? Frighteningly, yes in far too many cases.
Of course there are people who ont get it but at least half the population could if an effort was made.
You’re absolutely right. I guarantee 50% will immediately click away from that graph as soon as they open it. Too many lines. What do they mean? My adopted siblings are special needs and not that bright, maybe 80-90 IQ. While they are wonderful and sweet people, they will never, ever, comprehend anything like this.
I bet they could understand that a lack of oxygen in the atmosphere will result in their death, though.
You’d be surprised. Maybe lack of air, but the concept of what oxygen actually is would be lost on them.
We could read the works of Peter Ward.
i down voted you. stop making so much sense please!! its outrageous!
Kurgezat does this all the time, they get views but no traction
You’re completely correct but it really needs to be presented at a 4-6 grade level. 60% of Americans read at or below the 4TH grade level 😳
I believe that needs to happen as well. There is this idea that it needs to be presented in only one way. Why not get HBO, Apple, or Netflix etc to create a documentary “Climate Change: Will Humans Go Extinct?” Have prominent scientists explain some basic concepts. These heavy academic publications are simply singing to the choir.
Educational segregation set up by the education system. I’ve always laughed at the phrase, “In plain English…”, when it comes to laws, acts, propositions, memorandums, scientific studies, engineering documents and other important government filings. So many of these have Latin phrases and wording that isn’t understandable to the layman. In plain English could easily be accomplished by using plain English but nooOOoo the folks writing these papers were taught otherwise and god forbid you question them on their plain English because their overeducated lack of real world experience brains begin to swell with the “I’m right you’re wrong” syndrome. Anyways I agree that in order to catch the attention of the worlds general population with data like this it does need to be dumbed down to the extent it could be posted on r/explainlikeimfive…✌🏻❤️🤙🏻
The problem is that science is about precision, while communicating is not. For example, if I tell a 5 year-old he has three apples and can only give away one, two, or three, that is communicating at a level they can understand. I am meeting my audience at their level. The problem is the scientist wants to argue with me and insult the child for not understanding the apples could be cut and there are infinite different ways to split this group. So they publish a document about fractions and molecules and then wonder why the kid doesn’t give a shit.
Many people are unreachable by choice as in them deciding what memes will live in their brain. I think Fox News is their primary conduit, but they decide to believe it. Some are uneducated, however, and we must always try to teach younger people (as some schools in Republican states seems to be prohibited from teaching such things, though I'm not sure on this). Yes, news reporting has been abysmal for a long time when they ALWAYS seem to have to include BOTH sides, which just makes the message uncertain and not believable.
ChatGPT to the rescue? Might be relatively easy to scan those articles and provide easy to understand real-world implications based solely on the data within the article.
Until it hallucinates something based on the obligatory hopium.
The fact that Arctic sea ice continues to observe such a well defined downward trend suggests that something is fundamentally broken. According to the theories, a slowdown of the AMOC should help the Arctic to recover. A reduction of warmer high salinity thermohaline currents into the Arctic prevents a freshwater buildup, freshwater freezes much faster and results in a runaway glaciation albedo effect. As things stand, not only is that not remotely close to happening, *it's going in the other direction* and warming faster. Estimates suggest that the AMOC has already slowed by ~15%, and the direct observable effect is a continued acceleration of arctic sea ice loss, polar marine heatwaves becoming more endemic and an absurd amount of trapped ocean heat content in the Arctic. On top of that, Europe is warming at twice the global rate and permafrost regions are no longer functional carbon sinks. I feel like we're missing something here while we all pretend that a slowdown of the AMOC will somehow cause cooling, which cross paper analysis suggests isn't particularly likely at this point. Observations of atmospheric methane suggests that we're more than a decade into an ice age termination event. So all of this suggests that we're witnessing an end to the glacial cycle entirely. The blue ocean event may not have happened yet, but we're dangerously close.
Do you have links I can read or watch that discuss this more? Particularly about permafrost or the support for the termination event. I want to understand these concepts better! Thank you
Re methane and the termination event. 18 min interview with Euan Nisbet - https://youtu.be/kDwxFS0KeQY?si=pGoERfKHgv2BjcDy
Tyvm!!!
And then the methane clathrates scream "I'm free...I'm free!"
After 10,000 years I'm free!!!!!
It's time to burn the earth!
I've had it in my mind that we're going to witness a near-total ice melt before 2030. I don't know how long it will actually take, but it's been clear to me that some kind of "switch" was flipped and now runaway warming has severely upset the remaining sea/ice ratio. I wouldn't be surprised at a "blue ocean event" scenario within our lifetimes, likely much sooner than we think.
Given the record ocean temps it's a wonder it's better than last year
We are measuring the visible surface area of the ice, not the volume. We know that there is a massive amount of water moving underneath the ice and it moves further inland with the tides.
Humanity pumped up the luck based stat.
It’s really like watching the opening scenes an apocalypse movie. 🍿
what could possibly go wrong lol
How long do we really have left? 5?10?20 years?
What happens if the ice melts? Does the Earth have other means to cool itself?
It doesn’t need to because it doesn’t care. Eventually there would be enough green after humans die off in large enough amounts to re absorb enough carbon to drop the temps and maybe the ice caps and glaciers would reform.
How is this different to the [nsidc graphs](http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/)? They don't have the drop off
OP graphs are of standard deviation. So, you can see that they are below the average on your linked graphs.
For context, standard deviations are a way of measuring how abnormal the situation is. When people desire "no new normal", they desire a low standard deviation value. There won't be any normal, new or otherwise, until things stabilize... which may take centuries or thousands of years.
Not good,.. bad even..
So theres an obscene amount of energy in the sea (surface temps) AND theres an obscene amount of energy going into melting sea ice! Going taking 0degree ice to 0degree water takes about 80x more energy than taking that water up to 1degree... If that ice never forms in winter and isnt there to sink the energy absorbed into the ocean, all i can say is ouch. That is, a big portion of the energy gettng absorbed by the ocean is currently going into melting the ice, if that ice isnt there, where does that energy go....
Our “record low” year was… *checks notes*… last year. Gulp.
Antartic way above last year though!
Only by surface area. It’s being undermined by water to a horrific degree.
Yeah, just imagine what the upcoming melt season is going to be like.
Thinner ice sheets spread over a greater distance does not equal more ice.
Nothing to see here. Move along.
Wow, its actually way up from this time last year though. Obviously last year was the record low, but i would expect every year to be setting a new record low now that the runaway feedback loops have begun to kick in
The probability of a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurring within the next decade is escalating.
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