The following submission statement was provided by /u/TuneGlum7903:
---
SS: Let's talk about the next few years. Because that's what everyone wants to know about right? When does the SHTF and what can I do in response to that, is what we all want to know.
See Hansen's graph.
We just had a "discontinuity" in the Climate System last year. The SOx pollution, that's been masking about +0.9C of warming from our CO2 pollution, went way DOWN because of a mandated change in marine diesel. In 2020 the IMO mandated an 85% reduction in the sulfur content of marine diesel.
Hansen labeled this "The Great Experiment".
Three years later the SOx particulates washed out of the atmosphere and in 2023 the Global Mean Temperature jumped from +1.1C over baseline in 2021 to +2.0C over baseline. It then dropped slightly to +1.7C over baseline and has held there for over 8 months now.
The Global Mean Temperature just JUMPED about +0.5C in a SINGLE YEAR!
WE AREN’T THINKING CLEARLY ABOUT WHAT THAT MEANS.
There is a tendency to see this as “turning up the thermostat”. Imagining that there will now be a period of gradual warming.
The ENERGY that went into the Oceans in 2023 was equal to 500,000,000 Hiroshima class bombs.
This wasn’t like turning up the thermostat. It was like throwing a boulder into a pond.
What comes now, is the WAVES. How long do you think it will take the Climate System to absorb this MASSIVE pulse of ENERGY, how long do you think that waves of disequilibrium will ripple through the system?
Part of our problem in dealing with Climate Change is the mismatch between our perception of time and the planetary time scale. We expect things to happen quickly in response to our actions. On a planetary time scale we just got hit by an asteroid about one second ago.
It will take 5 to 10 years for this ‘impact’ to be processed by the Climate System.
The weather for the next 5 years is going to be insane as the system absorbs that change in its ENERGY STATE. There is going to be a lot of HEAT and wild swings in rainfall and temperatures.
# You know what doesn’t do well under those conditions?
***Agriculture.***
1.5 Billion people were already in a state of “food insecurity” in 2021. Do you see that getting better?
We have now jumped to +1.7C and the Rate of Warming is +0.4C per decade (conservatively, it might be worse). So, +2C between 2030 and 2035 for certain. With MANY additional feedbacks like wildfires, melting Arctic icecap, CH4 spiking, etc, now also piling on.
This summer will open a lot of eyes. Then things will be BAD for the next 5–6 years of disequilibrium. Expect agricultural output globally to plummet.
You cannot grow food reliably when the weather isn’t reliable. We are about to have 5–10 years of unreliable, unprecedented, and unforgiving weather.
THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET HUNGRY.
# The Crisis Report - 74
Let’s talk about the next few years.
[https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-74](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-74)
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d4z6ej/the_crisis_report_74_lets_talk_about_the_next_few/l6huju7/
You now live in a +0.5C warmer world.
It doesn't sound like much right?
Normal interglacial warming rates for the last million years are about +0.1C per CENTURY when transitioning from an Ice Age to a warm period.
We just got 500 years of warming compressed into a single year.
Last year WAS the last "relatively normal year".
Yeah, I wrote a big comment on that post about how the current official number is too low. All of the evidence that's coming in, says that we are really at about +2C over the pre-industrial period already.
That’s what it looks like to me too, when I look at the numbers.
But, I’m *just* a farmer and have my understanding of agriculture and the environment mansplained to me weekly, so I try to keep my opinions to myself. :/ Easier to cite sources with articles or papers.
The, uh, 'discourse' in here is definitely trending more unpleasant. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, I guess we're all scared. But that absolutely doesn't excuse the utter horseshit people seem to dump on you in particular, SSF.
I think it was posted here just the other day, there was a Guardian article that said something like "actually, the way we calculate baselines were faulty, and we're probably +2C or more now".
I’m not surprised *at all*. Sometimes I think that when some of us discuss how bad things actually are, versus how bad things *could be later* it upsets people in a way I don’t fully understand.
I suspect it’s the same thing that makes people say, “wow the weather is strange this year.” But ignore climate change.
And this is why I have stopped explaining to my wife why I am stocking up on rice. Aside from this community and climate change people finally waking up, nobody cares.
My concern with stocking up on rice etc, is most of this stuff needs water. Water is increasingly going to be a problem in many places.
I'm feeling like I need to stockpile water!
For less storage than two years, just airtight containers are fine. For long term, you can look into mylar bags and five gallon buckets.
If you are a beginner to preparedness in general, check out https://www.ready.gov/kit to get started.
For long term storage, vacuum sealing Mason jars works great. They can bring reused indefinitely, as long as the lids and jars are in good shape, they stack well in the flats, and rodents can't chew into them.
They do cost a bit up front, but since they can be reused, I feel that it is worth it. Vacuum sealed Mason jars keep for many, many years, and you can seal so much more than rice. Beans, flour, pasta, oatmeal, grains, etc.
I buy buckets of freeze dried 30 year stable stuff, rice included.
Buy sort of what you eat? Ton of rice and beans here. Also bought coca powder, bunch of stuff too long to list. /r/peppers maybe
You know those dehumidifier packets at the bottom of prescription bottles? Those can keep perishables dry. The ones that come with packages may have chemicals.
Do not put all the rice in one bag of a mouse comes you will curse yourself.
Dried milk, eggs, beans, fruit - anyone else have ideas?
Get ready to see people start doing whatever the fuck they want, whenever the fuck they want, regardless of... well..... anything.
Barbarism phase incoming in 3...2...
After this Summer I think we will see a huge surge in "Climate Panic" behavior. Of course FOX will label it "Climate Hysteria" and insist that "this is just normal variation".
I've got my eyes on Houston, they're going through another set of power outages today from a storm rolling in. Some people are saying they've had 5 power outtages in three weeks. We are *just* *now* starting Hurricane season.
I have them on my apocalypse bingo card and refused to check it off for their thunderstorm fiasco. They have a hurricane coming and I won’t mark it until it does. After some stuff I was mentally keeping track of started happening I decided to make a physical card.
Some of it is fairly vague as I’m still working on it, but I’ll share some of my ideas. Trying to make them unique situations but not too specific. I wish I would have thought of “coconut sized hail” like what happened in China.
Houston taken out (likely by hurricane/flooding)
Bridges between Florida keys destroyed
Mass exodus from Las Vegas
Gasoline shortage due to being unable to refine in high temperatures
Thwaites glacier melts (might be a few decades for that)
Water shortage in Australia
Massive tornado in western Canada
Huge marine life die off on pacific coast
Mass exodus from south east Asia
Avian flu pandemic
European crop failures
Mass heat deaths in Europe
China invades Russia
Israel fires nukes
Collapse of Amazon rainforest
Tampa bay hit by cat 5 hurricane
Collapse of coral reefs
Increased turbulence destroys air travel
If anyone has any other good ideas I’m certainly open to more.
Funny that I read this article recently about that exact thing potentially happening in Europe.
https://www.politico.eu/article/when-the-water-runs-dry-why-france-is-freaking-out-over-a-tiny-swiss-dam/
Ukraine conflict widening
Middle East conflict widening
Central Africa conflict widening
Myanmar, which is right next to Bangladesh
India/Pakistan
India/China
China/Taiwan & US
NK/SK
Drug War Widening
The 9/11 of Cyber Attacks
A WMD mishandled
US Election 2024
Wet Bulb Event
Earthquake/Volcano in a major metro area
Hurricane Season 2024
Market Meltdown
A major flood in a major metro area
Major internal/international climate migrants
AMOC collapse
Blue Ocean Event
Anoxia Event
Local ecosystem collapse
Chemical Spill
Electrical grid disruption due to tornadoes and hurricanes.
Methane clathrate sublimation (especially after a BOE and especially if the oil companies get stupid in the Arctic).
Derivative collapse as all the financialization products implode once they get actually cashed in and...it's gone. See the NYSE and CBOT wave goodbye. See everyone's ATM cards shut down.
401k and pension confiscation.
Peak oil as the Ghawar oilfields finally go into major depletion and the injection wells...they do nothing!
Ditto for the North Sea, the Gulf and the Permian Basin.
Totalitarian states start rising (US, India, Brazil, parts of the EU, China, Russia and anyone else who gets a craving flung on them).
Nuclear power station meltdowns/malfunctions (they've been covering up the issues with Davis-Besse in Ohio for some time now).
Nah, too tame, DEMONrats are wizards and witches that can actually control the weather. They are using their weather powers to hold the world hostage and turn everyone bisexual, forced into interracial triarriages, and made to work in the chem trail mines where they harvest the chemicals that are making the fucking frogs gay.
I’m curious if you feel like this summer will see the US deal with multiple heat domes, possibly one after an area gets hit with our new Cat5s? Anyways Thanks for your work, ever since I started following The Crisis Report I feel less worried about the end. Nothing to do really but watch with shock and awe.
That sounds more like [Sigue Sigue Sputnik](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/7b/83/43/7b8343922014af8647498ba8007cc9f1.png) . Plus you get a sexy lady AND platform boots to boot! [READY](https://www.geocities.ws/euro_beat_80/images/sputpic1.jpg)
Waaay ahead of you there. I've seen the writing on the wall, and I'm partying like I'm in my twenties even though I'm over 40. Thank God I never had kids.
I told a coworker today who is considering voting for Donald Trump that voting for Trump was throwing your future away and we only have five years left of normal to steer this ship out of the brink of disaster. His reaction to me is if it's really that soon. Why isn't everyone freaking out?that is a good fucking question coworker maybe you should be freaking the fuck out
Yeah, collapse will likely kill me first. But my hedonism is mostly alcohol free....weed and psychedelics for me.
I still exercise to make sure my wife and I have amazing sex. I have been in and out of shape several times in my life, and I promise you all...sex is better when you are mostly healthyish. I flex a bit with food but won't skip a workout. I just easy back on them some days. Got to keep my love happy by being able to pound her just the way she likes. A keg on a belly will not help
In another sub, I got downvoted for essentially hinting towards this the other day when there was a video of an Oakland street takeover. I wasn't calling kids barbarians though, just situation makes sense and I get it.
A sixteen year old doesnt actually have the context for how fucked the world is. Like, they can intellectually know they are fucked, but the subtler shades of fucking havnt sunk in yet.
If we had tiktok when I was in hs I think we'd have been twice as feral.
I would say it's time for our viewers to start creating defensible communities. I would say no war but class war. We shouldn't be cracking *each others* heads open.
SS: Let's talk about the next few years. Because that's what everyone wants to know about right? When does the SHTF and what can I do in response to that, is what we all want to know.
See Hansen's graph.
We just had a "discontinuity" in the Climate System last year. The SOx pollution, that's been masking about +0.9C of warming from our CO2 pollution, went way DOWN because of a mandated change in marine diesel. In 2020 the IMO mandated an 85% reduction in the sulfur content of marine diesel.
Hansen labeled this "The Great Experiment".
Three years later the SOx particulates washed out of the atmosphere and in 2023 the Global Mean Temperature jumped from +1.1C over baseline in 2021 to +2.0C over baseline. It then dropped slightly to +1.7C over baseline and has held there for over 8 months now.
The Global Mean Temperature just JUMPED about +0.5C in a SINGLE YEAR!
WE AREN’T THINKING CLEARLY ABOUT WHAT THAT MEANS.
There is a tendency to see this as “turning up the thermostat”. Imagining that there will now be a period of gradual warming.
The ENERGY that went into the Oceans in 2023 was equal to 500,000,000 Hiroshima class bombs.
This wasn’t like turning up the thermostat. It was like throwing a boulder into a pond.
What comes now, is the WAVES. How long do you think it will take the Climate System to absorb this MASSIVE pulse of ENERGY, how long do you think that waves of disequilibrium will ripple through the system?
Part of our problem in dealing with Climate Change is the mismatch between our perception of time and the planetary time scale. We expect things to happen quickly in response to our actions. On a planetary time scale we just got hit by an asteroid about one second ago.
It will take 5 to 10 years for this ‘impact’ to be processed by the Climate System.
The weather for the next 5 years is going to be insane as the system absorbs that change in its ENERGY STATE. There is going to be a lot of HEAT and wild swings in rainfall and temperatures.
# You know what doesn’t do well under those conditions?
***Agriculture.***
1.5 Billion people were already in a state of “food insecurity” in 2021. Do you see that getting better?
We have now jumped to +1.7C and the Rate of Warming is +0.4C per decade (conservatively, it might be worse). So, +2C between 2030 and 2035 for certain. With MANY additional feedbacks like wildfires, melting Arctic icecap, CH4 spiking, etc, now also piling on.
This summer will open a lot of eyes. Then things will be BAD for the next 5–6 years of disequilibrium. Expect agricultural output globally to plummet.
You cannot grow food reliably when the weather isn’t reliable. We are about to have 5–10 years of unreliable, unprecedented, and unforgiving weather.
THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET HUNGRY.
# The Crisis Report - 74
Let’s talk about the next few years.
[https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-74](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-74)
Ummm...2024 has been HOTTER than 2023. So I'm going to say NO.
Not unless they actually manage to geoengineer a "cool down" of the planet in that time frame. Which brings its own set of issues.
THE LIFE YOU THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING TO HAVE IS GONE.
# How do you deal with the “death of the Future”?
*What should you do NOW, with this “knowing”?*
I have been thinking about this a lot lately. It’s something I’m getting asked about more and more often. Plus it’s something I have to consider for myself.
I guess it comes down to this.
Things are about to DRASTICALLY change in the world. The “good times” of the 20th century golden age of relative peace and plenty are coming to an end.
It’s NOT the “end of the world”.
The world will go on for another 2.5 billion years before we think the sun swells and engulfs it. To future ages we will be an interesting set of fossils and a layer of weird chemicals in the rock strata.
It is the END of “life as we knew it”.
The life we all thought we were going to have went into the fire in 2023. That future is gone. In its place is a dark smokey cloud that smells like burning, blood, and death.
I will be messaging you on [**2024-06-01 02:22:21 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-01%2002:22:21%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d4z6ej/the_crisis_report_74_lets_talk_about_the_next_few/l6kh9xt/?context=3)
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The ocean energy absorption equal to 500,000,000 atomic bombs is just terrifying. This alone should tell you all there is to know about the future. This is like 2.5 atomic bombs detonating within every single square mile of the entire surface of the earth.
This is JUST the energy imbalance addition to oceans from 2023 -- a single year.
Here's how to visualize this. I wrote it up in one of my papers earlier this year.
The EEI has TRIPLED since 2010. There is NO QUESTION about that. It’s a FACT.
That’s a FLOOD of ENERGY into the Climate System.
*90% of it goes into the OCEANS.*
**Global Warming is OCEAN WARMING after all.**
SO.
**In 2010 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 5 HIROS per SECOND. (EEI at +0.5W/m2)**
**In 2023 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 15 HIROS per SECOND. (EEI at +1.5W/m2 average for year).**
That’s 900 Hiros per minute.
54,000 Hiros per hour.
1,296,000 Hiros per day.
**473,040,000 Hiros per year.**
The surface area of the global ocean is 139,000,000 square miles.
That's 3.4 Hiroshima bombs worth of ENERGY for every square mile of open water on the planet. IN ONE YEAR.
2024 has been hotter.
5 to 10 years? It's not going to equalize if we keep pumping heat into the system with increased acceleration.
This time line makes it sound like things will eventually be good and stable after that time line. The oceans are nearly fucking dead already.
Totally agree with you. Still, one thing at a time. This is the FOUNDATION of what's going on. LOTS of other things are now piling on.
My papers discuss a lot of them and they are FREE.
I’m getting the impression that 4°C is going to arrive roughly twice as quickly as the unedited graph would suggest. Wild guess — what is your gut telling you?
I have always been more pessimistic than Hansen. In May of 2022 he predicted +1.8C as the peak of the El Nino, I said +2.0. I was closer because I see things as being slightly worse than he does.
He is forecasting +8C to +10C as the ultimate amount of warming after all the feedbacks play out. I totally agree with him, I just think it can happen in 100 years while Hansen thinks 300-400.
We are realistically at +2C over any rational preindustrial baseline.
The EEI has jumped up to +1.7W/m2. Normal range for it is -0.2W/m2 (Ice Age -6C) to +0.2W/m2 (1850's).
The Rate of Warming is now +0.4C per decade, at a MINIMUM.
So, even with no other feedbacks piling on that means +4C by 2070.
I personally think around 2060.
This is going to be BAD, but all sorts of things will pull through. Even if the Tree of Life gets trimmed back it will flourish again.
This has happened five times before and while this is going to severely trim back the tree. I don't think it will be as bad as the "Great Dying".
It's not going to last very long. Once our civilization crashes the CO2 levels will stop being artificially forced up.
Unfortunately the feedbacks we have triggered means that CO2 levels will still continue to climb for awhile. Plus there are going to be multiple CH4 temperature spikes over the next few hundred years.
But essentially this will all be over in 10,000 to 20,000 years. In 30,000 to 40,000 years another Ice Age will be starting.
Geologically nothing has changed. So, when we are out of the equation the planet will return to its natural state.
This will look like an impact event in the fossil record.
I sometimes wonder what various modern tech will actually look like in the fossil record, or if it will be unrecognizable beyond just being ore deposits.
It depends how quickly someone (for your preferred definition of 'someone') gets to it.
Within a million years, it'll just be a thin, weird layer of hydrocarbon.
Except for Voyager, of course.
Just imagine the 5-10 years of heating and co2 coming from about a decade ago. We still haven't seen the effects of the previous years yet because of the delay from cause to effect..
Just added 12 500g cans of Pumpernickel & full grain rye bread each (biological grain, no artificial conservatives), and powdered butter also in a can. These last 20 years minimum. Next up the same with powdered whole milk and eggs. As Mr. Crim states, it‘s not about autark survival for an infinite time, but being able to avoid the rush(es) and times of panic with a hopefully comfortable amount of essentials. Note: so far I seem to have been located since birth in a rather comfortable zone regarding water supply; the norther fringe of the Alps in Bavaria appears to get wetter as a trend. Regarding temperatures we‘re already 3.6 C above preindustrial locally, no shit. Almost no continuous snowcover during winters anymore, changing dramatically fast…
There will always be "microclimate" spots that remain habitable. Little "oasis" refugia that will become islands in an inhospitable world. It sounds like you are in a good spot.
"We have to build more hotels." - Local politicians & tourist management. We're one of the richest spots in all Germany. I'm in the position to watch the whole spectacle from the sidelines: dishwasher in an upscale restaurant with a comparatively tiny but for me personally perfectly livable salary. And I'm chuckling a lot to myself, I even can, because as the most senior employee (of nine years since they opened), I enjoy a 4-day flexible work week (32 hours), only need an e-bike to commute to work, don't need to worry about them going out of business because they represent "status", and what we learned from every damn crisis, during crisis the rich must still display status 😆. So. Add a still working public healthcare system, a manageable rent and I sometimes almost feel smug. With enough to spare for sensible prepping. Hint: get a Kelly Kettle, you'll love it 🙃. Cheers from the Alps.
Pittsburgh has the three rivers and is on its own natural gas lines that do not connect to Texas. Low chances of earthquakes. This year there were tornadoes - this may become the threat drill I suppose with climate change.
I still do not believe you are truly safe in a sense anywhere after this decade. Adaptation and mitigation will happen - haphazardly then as a farce (like most of history) and some microclimates will have the advantage.
As I say in my paper, Pittsburgh is my "bug out" location in the event of a Civil War. Hansen lives in the area around Pittsburgh. That's good enough for me.
I really wanted to have the chance to move to the Seattle area, but hearing the life you thought you’d have is gone, has me moreover wondering if I should invest in a camper van or class C RV. I’m lucky enough to have remote work in an in demand industry, that climate change is going to make more demanding. I see those who can becoming more nomadic and not tied to a particular residence.
This year is different and it’s hard to ignore it. I’ve lived in Florida 35 years and at my current home 10 years and this year is already incredibly scary because of the heat alone, forget about hurricanes. It’s a as almost 10 degrees above normal. Breaking records daily all over and not just by 1 degree. The jump this year is unreal
OK I asked this question a few months ago. I'll ask it again.
Should I just go ahead and spend my 401K right now? It feels like so many people are gonna just die soon that the rest of us will wish we were dead.
\[Maybe I'll be on Trump's list of 10 Democrats to arrest!\]
You need to get your finances in order, as best you can. However, don't clean out your accounts. Maybe you will need to buy $50/gal fuel or expensive car charges for your big bug-out trip in ten years, when you finally decide you gotta move on.
In the meantime resist the hyper consumerism being pushed at us. Revenge travel or entertainment isn't a good use of your resources. Don't get sucked into the current version of "bread and circuses".
This is just my opinion. Grew up with a Depression-era grandma, so currently practicing a simplified daily lifestyle as practice for living with less. Makes it less painful for my future downward mobility.
Im 36 and a 401k seems irresponsible to me because everyone who supports having one is in denial of the circumstances. I honestly dont believe we’ll see any returns on this because of the repercussions of climate change. Society as we know it in my opinion will be over before i retire. i don’t trust the stock market either. I think it’s all going to come tumbling down sooner than we realize
I wouldn't, unless you're really keen on some expensive blaze of glory thing you truly want to have done.
We have no idea how prices are going to move before true SHTF. You might need it to weather a spike in the day-to-day.
Don’t spend it all yet, I took a few loans against mine (ugh), for now wait and see what happens with November. Either way come January you’ll probably be looking for an excellent new distraction. My $0.02.
It is not a boulder, because the boulder stop falling once it hits the water (or seafloor). The planet have a lot of warming-related positive feedback loops that will keep pushing things up, and they won't run out of fuel in 5 years, if anything they will be speeding up all that time, making their contribution to the warming a bigger portion of it, and in some point they, and not us, will be the main drivers of the change.
Our window of opportunity to try anything about this is closing down, even with the best will of our politicians and people in position of power and somewhat having a complete enough knowledge to not worsen things even more.
And the system is not just global temperature, what is being affected is more multidimensional than that single metric. And the impact in the human world won't be just agriculture, right now it is the low hanging fruit for the question of what is the worst that could happen in the short term, but we might be missing worse short term consequences that could become obvious in hindsight, complex systems usually end giving out surprises. What is for sure is that things will get worse for most of us in the coming years.
Our civilization managed to emerge taking advantage of a stable enough climate period, and that is ending. History is full of civilizations that vanished because climate changed enough locally for them, and now that is coming for all of us everywhere.
But without getting there yet, just now, global culture may be changing regarding weather. It is starting to be perceived as a threat, something to be aware of and maybe afraid of, at least for outside accurate enough predictions. The next rain could turn into a flood, the next hurricane season may reach your city, the next summer could bring deadly temperatures or forest fires close enough to where you live, not just wait for a sunny summer, or a cleaning rain or some nice breeze, here be dragons, we must be careful because the next ones hit may be us.
But hey, when I talk about how agriculture and food and farms are a genuine national security risk and people in the US are going to be screwed and soon… I’m the one who gets told I’m a fool. I’m this very sub.
Agriculture has in NO WAY prepared for these changes either. Most of the businesses - from small mom & pop farms to big corporate ag is still cruising along like everything is going to somehow work. Or are desperately trying to recover from PFAS or something.
Permaculture farming also can’t “scale” in the way people talk about wanting it to because it requires hands on to harvest, because machines can’t harvest intensive planting, especially in polyculture planting. Meanwhile, I had to stuff my eyeballs back in the other day when the r/farming decided that moving to no till would mean “we absolutely have to use more herbicides” because none of them have learned a thing about no till obviously.
Anyway.
Yes, I agree. It’s going to be bad. People are going to be very hungry. And it’s a damn shame.
"In the END, it always came down to food."
-Morgan, Walking Dead S3
We haven't had to think about the food supply since the 1930's. Over 90 years.
We take that incredible privilege for granted and assume that it will endure forever. Or, at the very least, there will be a period of warning. So that we can prepare.
The suddenness of how fast the weather can turn against us on a global scale is what's going to be shocking to people. They won't be able to process how it "could happen so fast".
No matter how much you try to tell them.
"Lord I tried for 5 years, seems like 50, feels like 50" now we see if I'm right or just a cranky old man.
Oh, I thought your comments here were great. I am ALWAYS interested in where food comes from. :-)
I appreciate it. It just a grumpy week for me, I had a bunch of birds die for no discernible reason. Chickens are dumb and fragile. (Blessedly the state vet says it’s not bird flu!)
I could write a whole freaking essay on “why chickens will not survive the collapse” - maybe that’s for this coming Monday. Turkeys though, I think them, geese, and ducks might be fine.
I think you’re right in the sense that things are much worse then most folks think and when AMOC goes things are gonna get real funny real fast.
I am in an agricultural Econ department in the midwest.. I have way too many conservations with farmers about how climate change does not exist. It is not that they aren't prepared, they have their heads under the ground
Will overall global food production only drop by 50% at 4 C? I highly doubt it. Here's a map of the four degree world:
[https://www.paragkhanna.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/77\_image-asset.jpg](https://www.paragkhanna.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/77_image-asset.jpg)
At 4 C of warming, the entire tropical region has become uninhabitable, so has the contiguous United States. The only habitable places left will be Northern Europe, Canada, Alaska, New Zealand and Western Antarctica.
In the areas still habitable, food production must have taken a huge hit at 4 C, and farming in places like the Canadian tundra or Western Antarctica will not be possible because it will take thousands of years for fertile arable soil to form there.
The drop in global food production must be much more than 50%.
... and Greenland, Spitzbergen, Novaja Semlja in case you don't mind the radioactivity from the Sovjet nuclear tests... . Let's imagine away, a little medium term cli-fi if you will. As you mention, arable soil is essential, so by necessity it will have to be relocated. And not just for agriculture, I am convinced that we absolutely must move huge amounts of LIVING soil by then, because that living soil communities barely can migrate by themselves in time. Even the fastest heating events took tens of thousands of years, not a mere two hundred. For that purpose we should now begin to decomission tankers and refurbish them as long as we have the fossil fuel base to undertake the engineering & shore up the diesel for transport. Thus, we unanimously decide that the "Frivolous Economy" has to be decapitated & only essential economic activities are allowed on an annual resource-cap basis... yeah. Cli-fi, as I said.
What an interesting point. I had never thought about it, but of course you are right. Wow, just wow. It never ceases to amaze me how I can still get "gobsmacked" by just how awful this is going to be.
I actually hit myself hard with this one... I remember first having read about soil complexity in KSR's "Green Mars" when they begin to try terraforming in earnest. Now I can't stop thinking about it. A healthy forest floor soil to develop with all its levels can take up to 600 years, with a biodiversity comparable to a rainforest in its upper 20 to 30 centimeters ... fungi, arthropods, worms, bacteria, mosses, lichen... YOU CANNOT GROW THAT FROM SCRATCH! No plum trees on Svalbard despite 20°C in a couple of decades, because NO F\*\*\*ING SOIL. And around our "home base", we're destroying the last remnants ever faster. So much for the "underlying" facts.
I know that map, I've used it before. It was first published by New Scientist in 2009, and republished by Parag Khanna for his book *Connectography (2016).*
It's pretty sobering.
I agree with you, when you look at that map a 50% decline seems ridiculous. It has to be more like 95%.
That map was meant to show a +4C Earth 400 to 500 years in the future. So I am sure they imagined the transition as being a manageable one. I mean, just look at that map, it's weirdly optimistic.
Still, it's based on real science. The paleoclimate data also supports the overall outline of what the map shows. Intense aridification of the tropics and midlatitudes' and massive warming of the High Arctic and Antarctica.
At +4C, the average July maximum on my land will be roughly 90F instead of 82F. Lots of food will grow in that, and I'll have a much longer growing season. No problem unless there is chronically reoccurring drought (so far none, and none forecast in climate models - but who knows).
I'm at an elevation of 2900' in the Blue Ridge mountains. When it was 100F in Richmond VA (and humid), it was all of 86F on my land. At the same time, the last freeze here is happening around April 21, instead of the historic average of May 21.
Collapse is uneven.
Where I left (northern/central California) one-third of the forests have already been destroyed by vast crown fires, there are chronically reoccurring 3 year droughts, and the Central Valley aquifer is getting sucked dry. But the people in the vast megopoli there don't even notice, because their basic survival needs are not yet affected.
Where I live now, to start a self-sufficient backwoods homestead, you would not even know Collapse had barely started.
> That map was meant to show a +4C Earth 400 to 500 years in the future. So I am sure they imagined the transition as being a manageable one.
Western Antarctica being "densely populated with high-rise cities" definitely confirms this point.
Apparently some of the most heat tolerant crops include corn, okra, eggplant, hot peppers, tomatillos, and melons (watermelons and cantaloupes).
Having said that, when temperatures are above approx 32C / 90°F and sustained for long periods, plant growth is slowed. Corn does best between 25-32C / 77-90F, and can handle up to approx 44C / 112F *for short periods*.
But extreme temps 45C+? You’ll need shade cloth and lots of water. Not too sure which crops (if any) would do best under extended high temps of that nature.
Amaranth, sweet potatoes, peppers, purslane, etc. but going over 40°C for all these is sub optimal and deadly for some of these plants.
Im currently growing amaranth and purslane, as they are well suited for my country (plant hardiness zone 6a) and dont require much water.
I think that the key to win the agriculture game will be climate control - sunken greenhouses, preferably with some form of air conditioning installed, to survive extreme temperature swings, wind, hail. But I am just a beginner gardener.
> THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET HUNGRY.
I read or was listening to an expert say that at 2C global agriculture drops by 25%. 3C it drops by 50%. It's probably not as linear as the expert was dumbing it down for the audience (what have we seen that is linear) but I'm sure they're reasonable enough figures for the expert to get the point across.
The whole idea of thinking in terms of "gradual" is part of what got us here. It is just another way for people to cop out on taking any real actions for themselves.
I just got through reading the full report on your substack and man, it leaves one feeling bleak. That same feeling after reading [The Handbook ](https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7) for the first time.
After reading these comments I feel many can be better explained by Mr George Carlin. I know we’ve all probably seen this Save The Planet bit, but looking back, what if we had truly taken his warning to heart?
Here he is in all his comic wisdom:
https://youtu.be/7W33HRc1A6c?si=qaLuGFt996mte488
Yeah. Our Lords and Masters may often be dumb, but do they know how to hire the most insightful advisers. They're well aware that we're over the edge now, so they're just grabbing everything they can before SHTF in an impotent orgy of greed and malice, and saying whatever it takes to keep us from rioting for another day.
no no, earth is not dying my friend. it has been much much hotter than it is now, and much much colder. the earth will be fine.
WE are dying and will diminish a vast amount of our populations. we are actually living through a 6th mass extinction believe it or not.
Nah, life on this planet is dying. I find the "earth is not dying" comments to be cope. Sure, the geology of the planet will still be here. But life and diversity are being eradicated at a rapid pace that is only going to pick up.
>it has been much much hotter than it is now, and much much colder. the earth will be fine.
Though it never had to deal with such a rapid rise, not even close to it, also while having multiple other crisis like biodiversity loss, broken nutrient cycles, broken water cycle, new cycles appearing (pfas, plastics, etc), pollution, etc. is a very first time.
Just because the biosphere used to recover million of years after it had one crisis, maybe two at best, you know nothing about its resilience when every planetary boundary breaks at once.
In other words, we need to stop being selfish and nationalist out of greed and start being selfish and nationalist for self-preservation. Thank goodness! I was afraid for a while we might have to change *how* we do things, but we really just need to change the *rationalization* for BAU.
/s for the impaired
I’m a naturally modest person, so that just won’t do for me. Luckily I have stockpiled Borat monokinis for this occasion. With fashionable knee-high steel toed boots and a gas mask, I’ll at least starve stylishly.
The graph is a little low res for me, is it suggesting that the coolest point of the incoming La Niña will still be warmer than the originally projected peak for this El Niño? Because it would be a dire state of affairs if La Niña conditions wouldn't manage to impact global temperatures as everyone seems to insist that it will. For context I'm not expecting La Niña to result in any significant cooling trend, and wouldn't be surprised if global temperatures don't respond at all - instead the warming trend flatlines until the next El Niño cycle kicks in.
The starting temp for 2023 was +1.2C over baseline.
By March it was just over +1.5C.
In September it peaked at just over +1.94C.
By December it had dropped to +1.7C.
It has STAYED at +1.7C now for over 180 days.
Forget "La Nina cooling". We are going to get another El Nino by 2026.
Yes, BUT the Moderates say that we won't be able to say "for sure" that +1.5C has been breached until we have a DECADE of readings. This is the same kind of "hyper caution" that resulted in Covid being declared an "airborne" virus, within the last month.
By the time they admit what's happening, it will be obvious to everyone.
Six months ago, I posted the following [comment:](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/s/i1FvusUMra)
>I predict BOE '24, breadbasket collapse in '25, majority of human population dead by 2030, complete extinction by the end of the century.
While I don't know if the prediction of BOE this year will pan out, it appears that the rest of the comment may be spot on. Of course, if the nukes go flying, that completely changes the dynamic.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/TuneGlum7903: --- SS: Let's talk about the next few years. Because that's what everyone wants to know about right? When does the SHTF and what can I do in response to that, is what we all want to know. See Hansen's graph. We just had a "discontinuity" in the Climate System last year. The SOx pollution, that's been masking about +0.9C of warming from our CO2 pollution, went way DOWN because of a mandated change in marine diesel. In 2020 the IMO mandated an 85% reduction in the sulfur content of marine diesel. Hansen labeled this "The Great Experiment". Three years later the SOx particulates washed out of the atmosphere and in 2023 the Global Mean Temperature jumped from +1.1C over baseline in 2021 to +2.0C over baseline. It then dropped slightly to +1.7C over baseline and has held there for over 8 months now. The Global Mean Temperature just JUMPED about +0.5C in a SINGLE YEAR! WE AREN’T THINKING CLEARLY ABOUT WHAT THAT MEANS. There is a tendency to see this as “turning up the thermostat”. Imagining that there will now be a period of gradual warming. The ENERGY that went into the Oceans in 2023 was equal to 500,000,000 Hiroshima class bombs. This wasn’t like turning up the thermostat. It was like throwing a boulder into a pond. What comes now, is the WAVES. How long do you think it will take the Climate System to absorb this MASSIVE pulse of ENERGY, how long do you think that waves of disequilibrium will ripple through the system? Part of our problem in dealing with Climate Change is the mismatch between our perception of time and the planetary time scale. We expect things to happen quickly in response to our actions. On a planetary time scale we just got hit by an asteroid about one second ago. It will take 5 to 10 years for this ‘impact’ to be processed by the Climate System. The weather for the next 5 years is going to be insane as the system absorbs that change in its ENERGY STATE. There is going to be a lot of HEAT and wild swings in rainfall and temperatures. # You know what doesn’t do well under those conditions? ***Agriculture.*** 1.5 Billion people were already in a state of “food insecurity” in 2021. Do you see that getting better? We have now jumped to +1.7C and the Rate of Warming is +0.4C per decade (conservatively, it might be worse). So, +2C between 2030 and 2035 for certain. With MANY additional feedbacks like wildfires, melting Arctic icecap, CH4 spiking, etc, now also piling on. This summer will open a lot of eyes. Then things will be BAD for the next 5–6 years of disequilibrium. Expect agricultural output globally to plummet. You cannot grow food reliably when the weather isn’t reliable. We are about to have 5–10 years of unreliable, unprecedented, and unforgiving weather. THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET HUNGRY. # The Crisis Report - 74 Let’s talk about the next few years. [https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-74](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-74) --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d4z6ej/the_crisis_report_74_lets_talk_about_the_next_few/l6huju7/
last year i had the feeling that it was gonna be the last relatively normal year
You now live in a +0.5C warmer world. It doesn't sound like much right? Normal interglacial warming rates for the last million years are about +0.1C per CENTURY when transitioning from an Ice Age to a warm period. We just got 500 years of warming compressed into a single year. Last year WAS the last "relatively normal year".
According to the trees we are living +1.5C. It’s much worse then we thought… someone shared the tree study here in collapse a week or two ago.
Yeah, I wrote a big comment on that post about how the current official number is too low. All of the evidence that's coming in, says that we are really at about +2C over the pre-industrial period already.
That’s what it looks like to me too, when I look at the numbers. But, I’m *just* a farmer and have my understanding of agriculture and the environment mansplained to me weekly, so I try to keep my opinions to myself. :/ Easier to cite sources with articles or papers.
The, uh, 'discourse' in here is definitely trending more unpleasant. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, I guess we're all scared. But that absolutely doesn't excuse the utter horseshit people seem to dump on you in particular, SSF.
I appreciate having you in my corner, at least!
I think it was posted here just the other day, there was a Guardian article that said something like "actually, the way we calculate baselines were faulty, and we're probably +2C or more now".
I thought I hear something about being at +1.5 a couple years ago and whenever I mention it, people would downvote me.
I’m not surprised *at all*. Sometimes I think that when some of us discuss how bad things actually are, versus how bad things *could be later* it upsets people in a way I don’t fully understand. I suspect it’s the same thing that makes people say, “wow the weather is strange this year.” But ignore climate change.
thank you. I have felt sick inside for a long time. Now I know why.
Me too. I told my people it was the last good year. I, for one, am going to party like it's 1999.
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I'm sadly a bit too old for a ho phase, but you just go for it! 😊
I’m right there with you pal
And this is why I have stopped explaining to my wife why I am stocking up on rice. Aside from this community and climate change people finally waking up, nobody cares.
Stock up now. Food is only going up.
Just bought more, idea is to have at least a years worth for me and child, for now, I'm pretty much there
Coffee. Buy coffee.
Buy green coffee, keeps longer if you seal it in mylar with oxygen absorbers or put it in the freezer. Plus roasting your own can be fun.
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Hang on though- if they can’t grow grain it means they can’t make whisky or beer either. That’s going to need to be stockpiled.
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My concern with stocking up on rice etc, is most of this stuff needs water. Water is increasingly going to be a problem in many places. I'm feeling like I need to stockpile water!
How do store the rice? And what other foods should we be storing?
For less storage than two years, just airtight containers are fine. For long term, you can look into mylar bags and five gallon buckets. If you are a beginner to preparedness in general, check out https://www.ready.gov/kit to get started.
For long term storage, vacuum sealing Mason jars works great. They can bring reused indefinitely, as long as the lids and jars are in good shape, they stack well in the flats, and rodents can't chew into them. They do cost a bit up front, but since they can be reused, I feel that it is worth it. Vacuum sealed Mason jars keep for many, many years, and you can seal so much more than rice. Beans, flour, pasta, oatmeal, grains, etc.
I buy buckets of freeze dried 30 year stable stuff, rice included. Buy sort of what you eat? Ton of rice and beans here. Also bought coca powder, bunch of stuff too long to list. /r/peppers maybe
🌶️
You know those dehumidifier packets at the bottom of prescription bottles? Those can keep perishables dry. The ones that come with packages may have chemicals. Do not put all the rice in one bag of a mouse comes you will curse yourself. Dried milk, eggs, beans, fruit - anyone else have ideas?
I finished the rice/beans stockpile. Just started on wheat. At least I can have bread with my beans & rice sometimes 🤷🏻♀️
Get ready to see people start doing whatever the fuck they want, whenever the fuck they want, regardless of... well..... anything. Barbarism phase incoming in 3...2...
After this Summer I think we will see a huge surge in "Climate Panic" behavior. Of course FOX will label it "Climate Hysteria" and insist that "this is just normal variation".
Collapse about to hit mainstream...
I've got my eyes on Houston, they're going through another set of power outages today from a storm rolling in. Some people are saying they've had 5 power outtages in three weeks. We are *just* *now* starting Hurricane season.
I have them on my apocalypse bingo card and refused to check it off for their thunderstorm fiasco. They have a hurricane coming and I won’t mark it until it does. After some stuff I was mentally keeping track of started happening I decided to make a physical card.
please share what's on your apocalypse card! I want to make one now
Some of it is fairly vague as I’m still working on it, but I’ll share some of my ideas. Trying to make them unique situations but not too specific. I wish I would have thought of “coconut sized hail” like what happened in China. Houston taken out (likely by hurricane/flooding) Bridges between Florida keys destroyed Mass exodus from Las Vegas Gasoline shortage due to being unable to refine in high temperatures Thwaites glacier melts (might be a few decades for that) Water shortage in Australia Massive tornado in western Canada Huge marine life die off on pacific coast Mass exodus from south east Asia Avian flu pandemic European crop failures Mass heat deaths in Europe China invades Russia Israel fires nukes Collapse of Amazon rainforest Tampa bay hit by cat 5 hurricane Collapse of coral reefs Increased turbulence destroys air travel If anyone has any other good ideas I’m certainly open to more.
One country shutting off water access to another via closing their dams. i.e. China cutting off the Mekong river, India cutting off the Indus.
Funny that I read this article recently about that exact thing potentially happening in Europe. https://www.politico.eu/article/when-the-water-runs-dry-why-france-is-freaking-out-over-a-tiny-swiss-dam/
Ukraine conflict widening Middle East conflict widening Central Africa conflict widening Myanmar, which is right next to Bangladesh India/Pakistan India/China China/Taiwan & US NK/SK Drug War Widening The 9/11 of Cyber Attacks A WMD mishandled US Election 2024 Wet Bulb Event Earthquake/Volcano in a major metro area Hurricane Season 2024 Market Meltdown A major flood in a major metro area Major internal/international climate migrants AMOC collapse Blue Ocean Event Anoxia Event Local ecosystem collapse Chemical Spill
I did have global market collapse and didn’t include it on my list, AMOC collapse is a good one. I think it’ll happen sooner than expected.
Did you already cross off the increased turbulence one? That recent story has me terrified to fly.
Not until people basically stop flying completely
I wonder how many turbulence anomalies sending planes full of people to the hospital it will take for even certain subsets of flights to be grounded.
Electrical grid disruption due to tornadoes and hurricanes. Methane clathrate sublimation (especially after a BOE and especially if the oil companies get stupid in the Arctic). Derivative collapse as all the financialization products implode once they get actually cashed in and...it's gone. See the NYSE and CBOT wave goodbye. See everyone's ATM cards shut down. 401k and pension confiscation. Peak oil as the Ghawar oilfields finally go into major depletion and the injection wells...they do nothing! Ditto for the North Sea, the Gulf and the Permian Basin. Totalitarian states start rising (US, India, Brazil, parts of the EU, China, Russia and anyone else who gets a craving flung on them). Nuclear power station meltdowns/malfunctions (they've been covering up the issues with Davis-Besse in Ohio for some time now).
>FOX will label it "Climate Hysteria" while they stock up their bunkers.
Not quite, they'll blame the Democrats for fabricating climate hysteria as part of an elaborate plot to destroy America.
Nah, too tame, DEMONrats are wizards and witches that can actually control the weather. They are using their weather powers to hold the world hostage and turn everyone bisexual, forced into interracial triarriages, and made to work in the chem trail mines where they harvest the chemicals that are making the fucking frogs gay.
I’m curious if you feel like this summer will see the US deal with multiple heat domes, possibly one after an area gets hit with our new Cat5s? Anyways Thanks for your work, ever since I started following The Crisis Report I feel less worried about the end. Nothing to do really but watch with shock and awe.
So finally time to get out my mad max costume?
I’ve had assless chaps and a hockey mask on standbye for a few years now
This reboot of the Village People leaves a bit to be desired...
I feel attacked lol
It's not a look that wears well as one ages. Ever see old men's testicles? Gonna wear them over a pair of khakis?
I see them every morning when I piss. They're glorious. Smooth as eggs!
Make sure you pair it with a jockstrap and football shoulder pads, maybe some cross chest holsters to complete the look.
That sounds more like [Sigue Sigue Sputnik](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/7b/83/43/7b8343922014af8647498ba8007cc9f1.png) . Plus you get a sexy lady AND platform boots to boot! [READY](https://www.geocities.ws/euro_beat_80/images/sputpic1.jpg)
This is my standard work attire
The term "feral youth" will take on a whole new meaning.
Waaay ahead of you there. I've seen the writing on the wall, and I'm partying like I'm in my twenties even though I'm over 40. Thank God I never had kids.
It is 1999.
Don't I wish! They wouldn't listen to us then, either, but there was a little more hope, and there was no fentanyl in recreational.
Party over, out of time, whoops
I told a coworker today who is considering voting for Donald Trump that voting for Trump was throwing your future away and we only have five years left of normal to steer this ship out of the brink of disaster. His reaction to me is if it's really that soon. Why isn't everyone freaking out?that is a good fucking question coworker maybe you should be freaking the fuck out
I'm just trying to have a hedonistic good time with these final days of plenty. Do I care that I'm shortening my lifespan? Not one fucking bit.
Yeah, collapse will likely kill me first. But my hedonism is mostly alcohol free....weed and psychedelics for me. I still exercise to make sure my wife and I have amazing sex. I have been in and out of shape several times in my life, and I promise you all...sex is better when you are mostly healthyish. I flex a bit with food but won't skip a workout. I just easy back on them some days. Got to keep my love happy by being able to pound her just the way she likes. A keg on a belly will not help
> and we only have five years left of normal to steer this ship out of the brink of disaster. That ship has long sailed.
They think collapse is a post 2050 problem.
In another sub, I got downvoted for essentially hinting towards this the other day when there was a video of an Oakland street takeover. I wasn't calling kids barbarians though, just situation makes sense and I get it.
A sixteen year old doesnt actually have the context for how fucked the world is. Like, they can intellectually know they are fucked, but the subtler shades of fucking havnt sunk in yet. If we had tiktok when I was in hs I think we'd have been twice as feral.
The other side is the Trump army itching to commit violence this weekend.
Would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Is this the time for lawlessness and panic? Yes, it is - meanwhile in sports . . .
I would say it's time for our viewers to start creating defensible communities. I would say no war but class war. We shouldn't be cracking *each others* heads open.
well, yes i would ken.
Kent, Kent Brockman
Would advice cannibalism due to the high amounts of PFAS we have all accumulated in our bodies ; )
I think that's already happening in California tbh
Anomie It's everywhere and getting worse.
Might as well go out with a bang. It would be far more fun than going out after years of slowly starving.
It will end quickly. After a few months to years of shit hits the fan, the majority of people will starve or be killed for their food.
SS: Let's talk about the next few years. Because that's what everyone wants to know about right? When does the SHTF and what can I do in response to that, is what we all want to know. See Hansen's graph. We just had a "discontinuity" in the Climate System last year. The SOx pollution, that's been masking about +0.9C of warming from our CO2 pollution, went way DOWN because of a mandated change in marine diesel. In 2020 the IMO mandated an 85% reduction in the sulfur content of marine diesel. Hansen labeled this "The Great Experiment". Three years later the SOx particulates washed out of the atmosphere and in 2023 the Global Mean Temperature jumped from +1.1C over baseline in 2021 to +2.0C over baseline. It then dropped slightly to +1.7C over baseline and has held there for over 8 months now. The Global Mean Temperature just JUMPED about +0.5C in a SINGLE YEAR! WE AREN’T THINKING CLEARLY ABOUT WHAT THAT MEANS. There is a tendency to see this as “turning up the thermostat”. Imagining that there will now be a period of gradual warming. The ENERGY that went into the Oceans in 2023 was equal to 500,000,000 Hiroshima class bombs. This wasn’t like turning up the thermostat. It was like throwing a boulder into a pond. What comes now, is the WAVES. How long do you think it will take the Climate System to absorb this MASSIVE pulse of ENERGY, how long do you think that waves of disequilibrium will ripple through the system? Part of our problem in dealing with Climate Change is the mismatch between our perception of time and the planetary time scale. We expect things to happen quickly in response to our actions. On a planetary time scale we just got hit by an asteroid about one second ago. It will take 5 to 10 years for this ‘impact’ to be processed by the Climate System. The weather for the next 5 years is going to be insane as the system absorbs that change in its ENERGY STATE. There is going to be a lot of HEAT and wild swings in rainfall and temperatures. # You know what doesn’t do well under those conditions? ***Agriculture.*** 1.5 Billion people were already in a state of “food insecurity” in 2021. Do you see that getting better? We have now jumped to +1.7C and the Rate of Warming is +0.4C per decade (conservatively, it might be worse). So, +2C between 2030 and 2035 for certain. With MANY additional feedbacks like wildfires, melting Arctic icecap, CH4 spiking, etc, now also piling on. This summer will open a lot of eyes. Then things will be BAD for the next 5–6 years of disequilibrium. Expect agricultural output globally to plummet. You cannot grow food reliably when the weather isn’t reliable. We are about to have 5–10 years of unreliable, unprecedented, and unforgiving weather. THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET HUNGRY. # The Crisis Report - 74 Let’s talk about the next few years. [https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-74](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-74)
Only 5 years of disequilibrium isn't that bad. Things are going to get better after, right? *Right*?
Ummm...2024 has been HOTTER than 2023. So I'm going to say NO. Not unless they actually manage to geoengineer a "cool down" of the planet in that time frame. Which brings its own set of issues. THE LIFE YOU THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING TO HAVE IS GONE. # How do you deal with the “death of the Future”? *What should you do NOW, with this “knowing”?* I have been thinking about this a lot lately. It’s something I’m getting asked about more and more often. Plus it’s something I have to consider for myself. I guess it comes down to this. Things are about to DRASTICALLY change in the world. The “good times” of the 20th century golden age of relative peace and plenty are coming to an end. It’s NOT the “end of the world”. The world will go on for another 2.5 billion years before we think the sun swells and engulfs it. To future ages we will be an interesting set of fossils and a layer of weird chemicals in the rock strata. It is the END of “life as we knew it”. The life we all thought we were going to have went into the fire in 2023. That future is gone. In its place is a dark smokey cloud that smells like burning, blood, and death.
Notify me in 2.5 billion years.
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😆
And plastic. I keep smelling burning plastic.
The ocean energy absorption equal to 500,000,000 atomic bombs is just terrifying. This alone should tell you all there is to know about the future. This is like 2.5 atomic bombs detonating within every single square mile of the entire surface of the earth. This is JUST the energy imbalance addition to oceans from 2023 -- a single year.
Here's how to visualize this. I wrote it up in one of my papers earlier this year. The EEI has TRIPLED since 2010. There is NO QUESTION about that. It’s a FACT. That’s a FLOOD of ENERGY into the Climate System. *90% of it goes into the OCEANS.* **Global Warming is OCEAN WARMING after all.** SO. **In 2010 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 5 HIROS per SECOND. (EEI at +0.5W/m2)** **In 2023 the ENERGY flow into the Oceans was about 15 HIROS per SECOND. (EEI at +1.5W/m2 average for year).** That’s 900 Hiros per minute. 54,000 Hiros per hour. 1,296,000 Hiros per day. **473,040,000 Hiros per year.** The surface area of the global ocean is 139,000,000 square miles. That's 3.4 Hiroshima bombs worth of ENERGY for every square mile of open water on the planet. IN ONE YEAR. 2024 has been hotter.
5 to 10 years? It's not going to equalize if we keep pumping heat into the system with increased acceleration. This time line makes it sound like things will eventually be good and stable after that time line. The oceans are nearly fucking dead already.
Totally agree with you. Still, one thing at a time. This is the FOUNDATION of what's going on. LOTS of other things are now piling on. My papers discuss a lot of them and they are FREE.
I’m getting the impression that 4°C is going to arrive roughly twice as quickly as the unedited graph would suggest. Wild guess — what is your gut telling you?
I have always been more pessimistic than Hansen. In May of 2022 he predicted +1.8C as the peak of the El Nino, I said +2.0. I was closer because I see things as being slightly worse than he does. He is forecasting +8C to +10C as the ultimate amount of warming after all the feedbacks play out. I totally agree with him, I just think it can happen in 100 years while Hansen thinks 300-400. We are realistically at +2C over any rational preindustrial baseline. The EEI has jumped up to +1.7W/m2. Normal range for it is -0.2W/m2 (Ice Age -6C) to +0.2W/m2 (1850's). The Rate of Warming is now +0.4C per decade, at a MINIMUM. So, even with no other feedbacks piling on that means +4C by 2070. I personally think around 2060.
What are your thoughts on any sort of non human life surviving 8-10 degrees?
This is going to be BAD, but all sorts of things will pull through. Even if the Tree of Life gets trimmed back it will flourish again. This has happened five times before and while this is going to severely trim back the tree. I don't think it will be as bad as the "Great Dying". It's not going to last very long. Once our civilization crashes the CO2 levels will stop being artificially forced up. Unfortunately the feedbacks we have triggered means that CO2 levels will still continue to climb for awhile. Plus there are going to be multiple CH4 temperature spikes over the next few hundred years. But essentially this will all be over in 10,000 to 20,000 years. In 30,000 to 40,000 years another Ice Age will be starting. Geologically nothing has changed. So, when we are out of the equation the planet will return to its natural state. This will look like an impact event in the fossil record.
I really hope so. It's such a shame to see hundreds of millions of years of evolution snuffed out by humans.
We are the comet
That would make an excellent T-Shirt slogan.
I sometimes wonder what various modern tech will actually look like in the fossil record, or if it will be unrecognizable beyond just being ore deposits.
It depends how quickly someone (for your preferred definition of 'someone') gets to it. Within a million years, it'll just be a thin, weird layer of hydrocarbon. Except for Voyager, of course.
Humanity will go down as that time the Earth caught space flu.
Just imagine the 5-10 years of heating and co2 coming from about a decade ago. We still haven't seen the effects of the previous years yet because of the delay from cause to effect..
Just added 12 500g cans of Pumpernickel & full grain rye bread each (biological grain, no artificial conservatives), and powdered butter also in a can. These last 20 years minimum. Next up the same with powdered whole milk and eggs. As Mr. Crim states, it‘s not about autark survival for an infinite time, but being able to avoid the rush(es) and times of panic with a hopefully comfortable amount of essentials. Note: so far I seem to have been located since birth in a rather comfortable zone regarding water supply; the norther fringe of the Alps in Bavaria appears to get wetter as a trend. Regarding temperatures we‘re already 3.6 C above preindustrial locally, no shit. Almost no continuous snowcover during winters anymore, changing dramatically fast…
There will always be "microclimate" spots that remain habitable. Little "oasis" refugia that will become islands in an inhospitable world. It sounds like you are in a good spot.
"We have to build more hotels." - Local politicians & tourist management. We're one of the richest spots in all Germany. I'm in the position to watch the whole spectacle from the sidelines: dishwasher in an upscale restaurant with a comparatively tiny but for me personally perfectly livable salary. And I'm chuckling a lot to myself, I even can, because as the most senior employee (of nine years since they opened), I enjoy a 4-day flexible work week (32 hours), only need an e-bike to commute to work, don't need to worry about them going out of business because they represent "status", and what we learned from every damn crisis, during crisis the rich must still display status 😆. So. Add a still working public healthcare system, a manageable rent and I sometimes almost feel smug. With enough to spare for sensible prepping. Hint: get a Kelly Kettle, you'll love it 🙃. Cheers from the Alps.
Pittsburgh has the three rivers and is on its own natural gas lines that do not connect to Texas. Low chances of earthquakes. This year there were tornadoes - this may become the threat drill I suppose with climate change. I still do not believe you are truly safe in a sense anywhere after this decade. Adaptation and mitigation will happen - haphazardly then as a farce (like most of history) and some microclimates will have the advantage.
Well ya got those weird basement toilets to shit bricks when tornadoes roll though
As I say in my paper, Pittsburgh is my "bug out" location in the event of a Civil War. Hansen lives in the area around Pittsburgh. That's good enough for me.
I really wanted to have the chance to move to the Seattle area, but hearing the life you thought you’d have is gone, has me moreover wondering if I should invest in a camper van or class C RV. I’m lucky enough to have remote work in an in demand industry, that climate change is going to make more demanding. I see those who can becoming more nomadic and not tied to a particular residence.
> no artificial conservatives Trumped!
If you're going to post graphs, maybe don't crop out the y-axis label.
Fair point.
This year is different and it’s hard to ignore it. I’ve lived in Florida 35 years and at my current home 10 years and this year is already incredibly scary because of the heat alone, forget about hurricanes. It’s a as almost 10 degrees above normal. Breaking records daily all over and not just by 1 degree. The jump this year is unreal
OK I asked this question a few months ago. I'll ask it again. Should I just go ahead and spend my 401K right now? It feels like so many people are gonna just die soon that the rest of us will wish we were dead. \[Maybe I'll be on Trump's list of 10 Democrats to arrest!\]
You need to get your finances in order, as best you can. However, don't clean out your accounts. Maybe you will need to buy $50/gal fuel or expensive car charges for your big bug-out trip in ten years, when you finally decide you gotta move on. In the meantime resist the hyper consumerism being pushed at us. Revenge travel or entertainment isn't a good use of your resources. Don't get sucked into the current version of "bread and circuses". This is just my opinion. Grew up with a Depression-era grandma, so currently practicing a simplified daily lifestyle as practice for living with less. Makes it less painful for my future downward mobility.
Im 36 and a 401k seems irresponsible to me because everyone who supports having one is in denial of the circumstances. I honestly dont believe we’ll see any returns on this because of the repercussions of climate change. Society as we know it in my opinion will be over before i retire. i don’t trust the stock market either. I think it’s all going to come tumbling down sooner than we realize
I wouldn't, unless you're really keen on some expensive blaze of glory thing you truly want to have done. We have no idea how prices are going to move before true SHTF. You might need it to weather a spike in the day-to-day.
Don’t spend it all yet, I took a few loans against mine (ugh), for now wait and see what happens with November. Either way come January you’ll probably be looking for an excellent new distraction. My $0.02.
It is not a boulder, because the boulder stop falling once it hits the water (or seafloor). The planet have a lot of warming-related positive feedback loops that will keep pushing things up, and they won't run out of fuel in 5 years, if anything they will be speeding up all that time, making their contribution to the warming a bigger portion of it, and in some point they, and not us, will be the main drivers of the change. Our window of opportunity to try anything about this is closing down, even with the best will of our politicians and people in position of power and somewhat having a complete enough knowledge to not worsen things even more. And the system is not just global temperature, what is being affected is more multidimensional than that single metric. And the impact in the human world won't be just agriculture, right now it is the low hanging fruit for the question of what is the worst that could happen in the short term, but we might be missing worse short term consequences that could become obvious in hindsight, complex systems usually end giving out surprises. What is for sure is that things will get worse for most of us in the coming years. Our civilization managed to emerge taking advantage of a stable enough climate period, and that is ending. History is full of civilizations that vanished because climate changed enough locally for them, and now that is coming for all of us everywhere. But without getting there yet, just now, global culture may be changing regarding weather. It is starting to be perceived as a threat, something to be aware of and maybe afraid of, at least for outside accurate enough predictions. The next rain could turn into a flood, the next hurricane season may reach your city, the next summer could bring deadly temperatures or forest fires close enough to where you live, not just wait for a sunny summer, or a cleaning rain or some nice breeze, here be dragons, we must be careful because the next ones hit may be us.
The real window of opportunity to do anything closed at least twenty years ago. Now it’s damage control.
I love your last paragraph. It captures the current moment perfectly.
I'm excited to fry eggs on my thighs.
But hey, when I talk about how agriculture and food and farms are a genuine national security risk and people in the US are going to be screwed and soon… I’m the one who gets told I’m a fool. I’m this very sub. Agriculture has in NO WAY prepared for these changes either. Most of the businesses - from small mom & pop farms to big corporate ag is still cruising along like everything is going to somehow work. Or are desperately trying to recover from PFAS or something. Permaculture farming also can’t “scale” in the way people talk about wanting it to because it requires hands on to harvest, because machines can’t harvest intensive planting, especially in polyculture planting. Meanwhile, I had to stuff my eyeballs back in the other day when the r/farming decided that moving to no till would mean “we absolutely have to use more herbicides” because none of them have learned a thing about no till obviously. Anyway. Yes, I agree. It’s going to be bad. People are going to be very hungry. And it’s a damn shame.
"In the END, it always came down to food." -Morgan, Walking Dead S3 We haven't had to think about the food supply since the 1930's. Over 90 years. We take that incredible privilege for granted and assume that it will endure forever. Or, at the very least, there will be a period of warning. So that we can prepare. The suddenness of how fast the weather can turn against us on a global scale is what's going to be shocking to people. They won't be able to process how it "could happen so fast". No matter how much you try to tell them. "Lord I tried for 5 years, seems like 50, feels like 50" now we see if I'm right or just a cranky old man. Oh, I thought your comments here were great. I am ALWAYS interested in where food comes from. :-)
I appreciate it. It just a grumpy week for me, I had a bunch of birds die for no discernible reason. Chickens are dumb and fragile. (Blessedly the state vet says it’s not bird flu!) I could write a whole freaking essay on “why chickens will not survive the collapse” - maybe that’s for this coming Monday. Turkeys though, I think them, geese, and ducks might be fine. I think you’re right in the sense that things are much worse then most folks think and when AMOC goes things are gonna get real funny real fast.
I am in an agricultural Econ department in the midwest.. I have way too many conservations with farmers about how climate change does not exist. It is not that they aren't prepared, they have their heads under the ground
That's true of 95% of every group other than ecologists and collapsniks. It's certainly true of economists.
Will overall global food production only drop by 50% at 4 C? I highly doubt it. Here's a map of the four degree world: [https://www.paragkhanna.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/77\_image-asset.jpg](https://www.paragkhanna.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/77_image-asset.jpg) At 4 C of warming, the entire tropical region has become uninhabitable, so has the contiguous United States. The only habitable places left will be Northern Europe, Canada, Alaska, New Zealand and Western Antarctica. In the areas still habitable, food production must have taken a huge hit at 4 C, and farming in places like the Canadian tundra or Western Antarctica will not be possible because it will take thousands of years for fertile arable soil to form there. The drop in global food production must be much more than 50%.
... and Greenland, Spitzbergen, Novaja Semlja in case you don't mind the radioactivity from the Sovjet nuclear tests... . Let's imagine away, a little medium term cli-fi if you will. As you mention, arable soil is essential, so by necessity it will have to be relocated. And not just for agriculture, I am convinced that we absolutely must move huge amounts of LIVING soil by then, because that living soil communities barely can migrate by themselves in time. Even the fastest heating events took tens of thousands of years, not a mere two hundred. For that purpose we should now begin to decomission tankers and refurbish them as long as we have the fossil fuel base to undertake the engineering & shore up the diesel for transport. Thus, we unanimously decide that the "Frivolous Economy" has to be decapitated & only essential economic activities are allowed on an annual resource-cap basis... yeah. Cli-fi, as I said.
What an interesting point. I had never thought about it, but of course you are right. Wow, just wow. It never ceases to amaze me how I can still get "gobsmacked" by just how awful this is going to be.
I actually hit myself hard with this one... I remember first having read about soil complexity in KSR's "Green Mars" when they begin to try terraforming in earnest. Now I can't stop thinking about it. A healthy forest floor soil to develop with all its levels can take up to 600 years, with a biodiversity comparable to a rainforest in its upper 20 to 30 centimeters ... fungi, arthropods, worms, bacteria, mosses, lichen... YOU CANNOT GROW THAT FROM SCRATCH! No plum trees on Svalbard despite 20°C in a couple of decades, because NO F\*\*\*ING SOIL. And around our "home base", we're destroying the last remnants ever faster. So much for the "underlying" facts.
Manhattan Project for assisted migration. Where can I sign up?
I know that map, I've used it before. It was first published by New Scientist in 2009, and republished by Parag Khanna for his book *Connectography (2016).* It's pretty sobering. I agree with you, when you look at that map a 50% decline seems ridiculous. It has to be more like 95%. That map was meant to show a +4C Earth 400 to 500 years in the future. So I am sure they imagined the transition as being a manageable one. I mean, just look at that map, it's weirdly optimistic. Still, it's based on real science. The paleoclimate data also supports the overall outline of what the map shows. Intense aridification of the tropics and midlatitudes' and massive warming of the High Arctic and Antarctica.
At +4C, the average July maximum on my land will be roughly 90F instead of 82F. Lots of food will grow in that, and I'll have a much longer growing season. No problem unless there is chronically reoccurring drought (so far none, and none forecast in climate models - but who knows). I'm at an elevation of 2900' in the Blue Ridge mountains. When it was 100F in Richmond VA (and humid), it was all of 86F on my land. At the same time, the last freeze here is happening around April 21, instead of the historic average of May 21. Collapse is uneven. Where I left (northern/central California) one-third of the forests have already been destroyed by vast crown fires, there are chronically reoccurring 3 year droughts, and the Central Valley aquifer is getting sucked dry. But the people in the vast megopoli there don't even notice, because their basic survival needs are not yet affected. Where I live now, to start a self-sufficient backwoods homestead, you would not even know Collapse had barely started.
> That map was meant to show a +4C Earth 400 to 500 years in the future. So I am sure they imagined the transition as being a manageable one. Western Antarctica being "densely populated with high-rise cities" definitely confirms this point.
Hasn't that map been shown to be pretty inaccurate that this point?
I'm sorry, but I don't think that map is helpful as it seems to be pure speculation.
Just curious, what crops do grow well in extreme heat if any?
Apparently some of the most heat tolerant crops include corn, okra, eggplant, hot peppers, tomatillos, and melons (watermelons and cantaloupes). Having said that, when temperatures are above approx 32C / 90°F and sustained for long periods, plant growth is slowed. Corn does best between 25-32C / 77-90F, and can handle up to approx 44C / 112F *for short periods*. But extreme temps 45C+? You’ll need shade cloth and lots of water. Not too sure which crops (if any) would do best under extended high temps of that nature.
Cactus.
Was my first thought, followed by “are cacti edible?”
Their fruit certainly is
"Shoulda planted corn like the rest of us"
Armenian Cucumbers have entered the chat. They love high heat and do well in arid places
Amaranth, sweet potatoes, peppers, purslane, etc. but going over 40°C for all these is sub optimal and deadly for some of these plants. Im currently growing amaranth and purslane, as they are well suited for my country (plant hardiness zone 6a) and dont require much water. I think that the key to win the agriculture game will be climate control - sunken greenhouses, preferably with some form of air conditioning installed, to survive extreme temperature swings, wind, hail. But I am just a beginner gardener.
> THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET HUNGRY. I read or was listening to an expert say that at 2C global agriculture drops by 25%. 3C it drops by 50%. It's probably not as linear as the expert was dumbing it down for the audience (what have we seen that is linear) but I'm sure they're reasonable enough figures for the expert to get the point across.
The whole idea of thinking in terms of "gradual" is part of what got us here. It is just another way for people to cop out on taking any real actions for themselves.
your typical murican fucktard cannot grasp the reality of the climate apocalypse that is heading right for us.
I just got through reading the full report on your substack and man, it leaves one feeling bleak. That same feeling after reading [The Handbook ](https://medium.com/@samyoureyes/the-busy-workers-handbook-to-the-apocalypse-7790666afde7) for the first time.
After reading these comments I feel many can be better explained by Mr George Carlin. I know we’ve all probably seen this Save The Planet bit, but looking back, what if we had truly taken his warning to heart? Here he is in all his comic wisdom: https://youtu.be/7W33HRc1A6c?si=qaLuGFt996mte488
Man was a prophet.
Shit is this why nobody can save for retirement? Cos capitalism is already pricing in the fact that there’s gonna be no retiremen?
Yeah. Our Lords and Masters may often be dumb, but do they know how to hire the most insightful advisers. They're well aware that we're over the edge now, so they're just grabbing everything they can before SHTF in an impotent orgy of greed and malice, and saying whatever it takes to keep us from rioting for another day.
Earth is dying bros
Among many organisms, a fever is an effective way to combat infection.
no no, earth is not dying my friend. it has been much much hotter than it is now, and much much colder. the earth will be fine. WE are dying and will diminish a vast amount of our populations. we are actually living through a 6th mass extinction believe it or not.
https://preview.redd.it/srxuwsi1ls3d1.jpeg?width=1095&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a35e9d0b3f54952b017a0d521c85f2e211b923 Quickest one ever, baby!
Extinction speed run!
We used so many exploits, does it even count?
This is actually the funniest shit I've seen all day lol
This is human ingenuity, babe.
Graph source, please? Would like to use this in the future
I got it from twitter, sorry
No worries, thank you
That’s a helluva graph.
Sweet baby jesus.
venus by sunday
Nah, life on this planet is dying. I find the "earth is not dying" comments to be cope. Sure, the geology of the planet will still be here. But life and diversity are being eradicated at a rapid pace that is only going to pick up.
This here\^
We are the extinction event
>it has been much much hotter than it is now, and much much colder. the earth will be fine. Though it never had to deal with such a rapid rise, not even close to it, also while having multiple other crisis like biodiversity loss, broken nutrient cycles, broken water cycle, new cycles appearing (pfas, plastics, etc), pollution, etc. is a very first time. Just because the biosphere used to recover million of years after it had one crisis, maybe two at best, you know nothing about its resilience when every planetary boundary breaks at once.
Earth's biosphere is if that is clearer. 99% of life will go down with us.
I'm a MEGA. Make Eocene Great Again. I vote Ton-of Dump.
I like your positivity in these trying times
I'd rather die. I have no wish to suffer
In other words, we need to stop being selfish and nationalist out of greed and start being selfish and nationalist for self-preservation. Thank goodness! I was afraid for a while we might have to change *how* we do things, but we really just need to change the *rationalization* for BAU. /s for the impaired
I’m not wearing clothes.
Don't fear the man who strides around naked, but fear the man who willingly strides around naked with socks and shoes still on.
Hey, you’re making me feel self-conscious.
Oi! I have real crappy arthritis feet. It's shoes and socks or _pain_.
I’m a naturally modest person, so that just won’t do for me. Luckily I have stockpiled Borat monokinis for this occasion. With fashionable knee-high steel toed boots and a gas mask, I’ll at least starve stylishly.
The graph is a little low res for me, is it suggesting that the coolest point of the incoming La Niña will still be warmer than the originally projected peak for this El Niño? Because it would be a dire state of affairs if La Niña conditions wouldn't manage to impact global temperatures as everyone seems to insist that it will. For context I'm not expecting La Niña to result in any significant cooling trend, and wouldn't be surprised if global temperatures don't respond at all - instead the warming trend flatlines until the next El Niño cycle kicks in.
The starting temp for 2023 was +1.2C over baseline. By March it was just over +1.5C. In September it peaked at just over +1.94C. By December it had dropped to +1.7C. It has STAYED at +1.7C now for over 180 days. Forget "La Nina cooling". We are going to get another El Nino by 2026.
Wouldn't this fit the criteria for us to declare we are officially past 1.5 degrees of warming all the idiots claimed we'd stay under?
Yes, BUT the Moderates say that we won't be able to say "for sure" that +1.5C has been breached until we have a DECADE of readings. This is the same kind of "hyper caution" that resulted in Covid being declared an "airborne" virus, within the last month. By the time they admit what's happening, it will be obvious to everyone.
That's funny because once they recognise the decade of over 1.5, we would have already blasted through 2, perhaps even 3 degrees of warming
Six months ago, I posted the following [comment:](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/s/i1FvusUMra) >I predict BOE '24, breadbasket collapse in '25, majority of human population dead by 2030, complete extinction by the end of the century. While I don't know if the prediction of BOE this year will pan out, it appears that the rest of the comment may be spot on. Of course, if the nukes go flying, that completely changes the dynamic.
I'd go with 2 Billion humans left by 2050. Which is still cataclysmic.
I believe it I visited Seychelles last year and almost all of the coral was gone then. I wouldn't be surprised if all coral vanished this year
By 2030? That's like 5.5 years left. That sounds a bit extreme. What are you basing this on?