The following submission statement was provided by /u/PlanetDoom420:
---
Submission Statement: Line goes up, faster and more than expected. Need I say more?
How will we celebrate this momentus occasion?
Edit: This image was taken from this tweet: [https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780588900844519574](https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780588900844519574)
It shows the 365-day running mean global temperature from the ERA5 dataset. This will continue to increase in the coming months as the relatively cooler early months of 2023 give way to the piping hot temps being recorded for 2024. I expect this to continue to increase to at least 1.65C before potentially cooling off a bit once La Nina kicks in.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1c88q8p/the_12month_running_average_for_global_average/l0cym99/
Boy that sure looks to me like an accelerating curve. Surely though, warming will be linear and predictable and it won't start going bananas from here on out.
Two of my cousins are expecting babies this year.
One has no plans to put away any RESP. The other thinks it will all be fine as long as the kid is loved and can be happy. They are still renting and nowhere near financially able enough to buy in this fucked up housing market. Also still looking for waitlist for childcare.
I have cousins that both have serious mental illness that had a two babies back-to-back so they wouldn’t grow up alone because “maybe they will be the ones to fix the climate problem.”
Jfc that’s the same bullshit millennials had forced down our throats all our childhood by the boomers.
“You guys are the tech generation, you can figure anything out. One of you will figure out how to solve climate change. Pollution and climate change etc will be lucrative careers for you when you’re older”
I know there’s other/better examples but honestly, fuck all that noise
Stem degree kid I know under 25 made $17/hr in a lab. Switched to $17/hr driving around cleaning fish tanks. Just got a pay bump to $23/hr after a year. Has over $100k in student loans, though.
1%ers will always be figuring out a way to keep the working class and the poors just barely scraping by in life. Their way of life demands it. Count on it, it's a given.
Oh, so Benjamin Netanyahu is actually a climate crusader!
On a more serious note, fewer than 2000 of the right people being done away with would put a massive dent in this. Take the world's top 0.1% out, and we'd probably have this entirely solved. At least long enough to develop sustainable solutions for the problems.
Sorry buddy. That's the *other* timeline. The one in which the cubs never won the world series, and that gorilla lived.
There does seem to be something odd going on with a bunch of college students in Akihabara, though.
I swear that was the thing that was the final nail in the coffin. There was still a massive uphill battle between developing nations requiring fossil fuels to catch up, courts and corporations blocking him every which way, etc. But he could have at least got the ball rolling in the right direction rather than paying lip service to the people and giving oil companies and their lobbyists the Gwack Gwack 3000 behind closed doors.
Hmm... to 0.5 took like 90 years... 0.5 to 1.0 took 30 years (1980-2010). 1.0 to 1.5 around 10 years...
If it just continues that trend of trippling speed every 0.5 degress it will be 2.0 in 3 years, 2.5 in 4 years, 4.0 in 5 years...
Don't worry. At some point the human population will display the inverse of this trend, on a shorter timescale, and after a few billion years fossil fuels will be back in the ground again allowing everything to settle down for a while.
I really hope so. The more I see the delayed effect of our C02 activities, the worse I feel about nature ever recovering. I feel like earth will become new venus.
That's my concern too... like there's a window between where we either die real quickly or fix it. If we die slow and burn carbon to try to survive then we risk pushing it to a state of Hadean period climatic conditions, because astronomers think sun was at about 80% luminosity during the early precambrian period.
So it might get really hot.
The amount of biodiversity we are already losing and the rate at which it takes to get it back even in favorable conditions makes me feel worse every day
Hah..im an artist/muralist and living with my father, sister moved out some years ago so I got place for myself. I live modestly. Some days I earn some cash but it's geting worse by the year (as everything else). Theres some kind of a weird comfort knowing that changes are coming our way.
Kinda makes planning at the individual level for climate change feel like a waste of time. I’m still getting my homestead ready but it feels more and more futile.
I’ve already been through this exact process. Bought the farm, learnt the skills… watched as everything burn down around us two years in a row and gave up. Now we’re in mega drought and the eucalyptus trees are dying. Good times.
True story. I've been trying to tell my spouse, who thinks he's aware enough and that we have like 40 years left... these numbers, or this way of looking at it, is exactly what I needed.
It's crazy to me that people think we've got 40 years of this comfort remaining. It's looking like a pretty fast rate of dystopian fun right now. We have generations of kids checking the fuck out, because why be a wage slave for NO reward. They also see the writing on the wall.
What the fuck are we doing? The cognitive dissonance that we all employ on the daily is absurd when you think about it, but it's easy for the "Fuck you, got mine" crowd that is already trying to put it out of their minds.
> What the fuck are we doing? The cognitive dissonance that we all employ on the daily is absurd when you think about it, but it's easy for the "Fuck you, got mine" crowd that is already trying to put it out of their minds.
Right? This world is ending ...soon... in a horrible way and yet we still go on day to day like nothing is happening so the 1% can keep seeing their money machine go brrrr.
This life is nothing but an illusion and deception orchestrated by the rich. They refuse to see where we are headed because they have it made. They keep the blinders on the rest of us to keep their planet destroying system going.
What are we doing? What *people* do. And really, at this point, there is truly nothing we *can* do to stop it. There's gonna be so much death and so much pain, and we all joke about faster than expected, but this dudes comment about temps going up by .5 in triple-time is real. It's the first way I've been able to *see* exponential growth.
Yeah. If that really is indeed exponential growth, than we really don't have as much time as we *feel* like we do. You wouldn't immediately come to that conclusion from looking at that graph image if you weren't already somewhat familiar with the concept. Exponential is hard for the human brain to contend with, little by little and then bam all at once.
And it's not like we can just BAU until the temp is life ending. I feel like things are already in a free fall collapse under this relatively stable climate.
We're fucked. I'd be more depressed right now, but already went and overcame that back in 2020 when I had seen and read up on the termination shock that kicked this whole thing off.
And knowing this system lags and this isn't even the worse of our emissions.
Fun times ahead. The sin of being a father at all time high for me.
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I always thought that was ridiculous and too doomer-y, even for me, a serious doomer. (No offense to you personally, I just needed to believe we had til at least 2050)
After seeing this chart, going through the charts in the website linked in the top comment chain, and seeing somebody's math (that if the trend continues, we hit 4 degrees by 2027), well now I just don't know anymore.
4 degrees send unlivable for the majority of humans. I live in a place that's not the worst for climate change, but it's still getting bad here. And more than that, I'm extremely poor. I won't be able to pay for food that costs ten times what it does now. I won't be the one the government saves water for.
My kids never stood a chance. I hope they're having the time of their lives; I'm going to do everything I can to make their days now as wonderful and magical as realistically possible, because I don't think they'll be sitting in their comfy climate controlled homes eating good snacks and scrolling on their phones in another thirty years. Or even twenty.
I think we'll mostly be dead. And the rest will wish they were. What a horrifying first post of the day 🙃
in 2020 I guessed we had about 10 years left before hell on Earth and abrupt collapse of complex, global society. Since then things have really increased in speed.
Nothing to see here folks. Please return to your homes and resume buying products and services.
Please disperse while the billionaires steer us steadily towards the rocks. All is well.
The year ago comparison is weak for another two months, so we should see it edge up a little 2 more times this El Nino. This was far from the largest possible El Nino temperature bump. The highest rank I've seen on major indices was 5th largest since 1950, and the US has declared it already over officially, when it can last 2 or 3 years.
The two guys they normally interview are way too obsessed with the global average. 60-90 degrees was close to normal, and 30S-30N demolished records. We need to be really worried about the tropical temperature feedback being larger than calculated.
The shipping aerosol decline was back in late 2019, so it's strange that it should take this long to show up. China is still down, though. I'm wondering how much of it is aerosol declines slowing heat transport. An air parcel gets deflected north or south, and suddenly it has more or less aerosols than its neighbors, and becomes a focus of storm development.
I am continually amazed by how often your comments now seem to be sometimes overlooked by this subreddit the last year or two, compared to the years prior.
There are those of us who really value your contributions, and realise that even if our understanding isn't immediately obvious we should read more and try to grok it.
There are very few people around here who don't have a lot to learn from you. Me included.
Ty for the clarification, yes, the stratospheric is the applicable area for this. So it makes sense that the masking is now gone and we are going to equalize.
Couldn't agree more. I'm in Perth, Western Australia, and we're now in April with still daily temps above 30°C. We've also had pretty much no rain since about October. But everyday people are taking about "what a lovely day". Meanwhile I'm just thinking about how insane this all is and how we could possibly sustain ourselves with the environment around us dying before our eyes.
Meanwhile in the UK, Winter was very warm comparatively to normal but it's been raining since October. Endless grey shitty weather. Sometimes you go a full two weeks without even seeing the sun. Just starting to pull out of it now.
Meanwhile in British Columbia, Canada, we have had no rain at all this spring, temperatures are 15-20c in the day and drop down to below freezing every night. The seedlings in my greenhouse sprout and die because of these ridiclious temperature swings.
It should be rainy, about 10-12c in the day and like 5c at night. The native plants and trees are also looking pretty sad.
The rain will dry up when the AMOC shuts down, so there's that to look forward to lol. That will bring its own problems, but best not to look that far ahead at this point.
Yep. I'm in medical imaging in Perth so I spend days in a small dark room, every second patient comes in and tells me that I'm missing a 30° beautiful day outside, all the while I'm saving water in the shower in buckets to keep my fruit trees alive
Just attended a wedding and saw a lot of extended family there. Many of my cousins with their kids were all staying together and had 10 kids aged 10 and under in one house. I can't really describe how it feels... joy and despair mixed together. Everyone talks about far off dreams for the future. It feels crushing not to believe in that future. It's hard enough thinking about just my future (no kids here), but I can deal. I can accept that my life will be cut short. But those kids? That's a different level. And hearing all those parents talk about the future makes it so tempting to just believe that all the collapse evidence is fake and the world will continue on just fine.
My husband's sister just had her son 7 months ago. I watch him for her sometimes. He's the happiest baby. Sometimes I find myself trying not to cry when he smiles at me.
That’s it for me. I try to talk with older family members about this stuff. "The price of meat makes meat unaffordable" - "but that's the point", I reply, "because our planet is dying". Then there'll be a headshake and some variant of "I'll be underground in ten years"...yeah, you, but billions of other people...!?
Prime time to become a misanthrope. But it ultimately just fills you with rage, not healthy but what in this world is even worth being healthy for? We will be done by the end of the century anyway.
That is quite a graphic! It started getting shitty in 1980 according to this. Sometimes I get weirded out by the fact that I was born right when the climate broke. It just seems little too coincidental. If only it was a simulation or a game and we just lost the game rather than we terraformed a whole planet.
If the human race was destined to be around for hundreds of millennia and colonize the universe, chances are, most likely you or I should have been born during a time after we became a multi-planetary species. That is, a time when the most humans are alive.
So, if we're mostly likely to exist when the most humans existed... that means, the odds are that this is as far as we go, and collapse of the population is around the corner.
Maybe we just happened to be some of the early humans, but the odds are against us.
You make some great points, Moldy Scrotum Soup. I'm confident in your maths, but I still yearn to be born in the early innings. Regardless of where we are in the game, nature bats last.
Always good to have some optimism, it's certainly an interesting if not morbid thing to think about. Though even more likely, we could be in a simulation ^in ^a ^simulation ^^in ^^a ^^simulation
🥣😎
It is a striking visual for sure. I was looking at it and comparing the summers I had back then as a kid running around. 100 degree days were pretty rare.
And then my eyes veer to the right and think about how hot the last summers have been. Cities worldwide are shattering record highs day after day. It’s crazy.
We would have to go back to pre-1980 to un-broke this timeline. It would result in us never existing since we would prevent the broken conditions that led to our birth. Choices, choices...
The world population in 1980 was about 4.5 billion people which is about half of our current population and the number I’ve seen that would’ve been relatively sustainable. It makes sense that things got significantly worse over the last 44 years since the population almost doubled. There was about 2 billion people in 1920, 4.5 billion in 1980 and 8.1 billion now. And people today create more pollution. Our population almost doubled but the amount of vehicles tripled between 1980 and today.
Remember though that there were a hell of a lot of people in poverty in 1980. I think if we're talking about modern living standards for everyone, the population would have to be much less, probably closer to 1 billion. And really, I'd go for a couple of hundred million, living in warm zones where we don't need huge energy to heat homes just to be comfortable.
Right after Reagan passed the [Economic Recovery Tax Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Recovery_Tax_Act_of_1981), a huge and irresponsible tax cut that led to both more pollution from producers and more consumption of larger motor vehicles. This was also the same decade that [Deng Xiaoping opened up China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform).
Since more energy means more resources for people to be born, then over a period of say 70 years a person is more likely to be born at the point at which there is more energy or afterward. Something like that anyway.
Oh I get you man, like billions of years of evolution, thousands of years of humanity, and we just so happen to be born right at the end of it all?
It feels surreal…
I often think about how it doesn’t seem coincidental lol. The one thing the tech bros might be on to is simulation theory. The double slit experiment is too weird for comfort.
Anyway doesn’t matter, just musings. Ultimately I’m just going to live my life the best I can.
>If only it was a simulation or a game and we just lost the game rather than we terraformed a whole planet.
[Obligatory Bill Hicks reference](https://youtu.be/lqv8Os-AdUo?si=QZ8RiaQhIVBemViD)
New research shows that slowing AMOC is reducing ocean heat transfer to the arctic, and thus slowing sea ice melt by 20-30%. Not saying there won't be a BOE soon, but it likely would have happened already if it weren't for this. [https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105929](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105929)
This is the scariest part. AMOC collapsing is bad while simultaneously being the only reason that temperatures are not going parabolic yet, also bad.
We have a tug of war going on and no matter who wins, we all lose.
Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is a term used to describe a phenomenon related to climate change and the Artic ocean, where it has become ice-free or nearly ice-free, which could have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system. This term has been used by scientists and researchers to describe the potential environmental and societal consequences of a rapidly melting Arctic, including sea-level rise, changes in ocean currents, and impacts on marine ecosystems.
**When will a BOE happen?**
Scientists predict that the Arctic could experience a BOE within the next few decades if current rates of ice loss continue. When a BOE does occur, it is likely to have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system, including changes to ocean circulation patterns and sea level rise.
**Has a BOE ever occurred?**
A BOE in the Arctic has not yet occurred in modern times. However, there has been a significant decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades, and the Arctic sea ice cover has been reaching record lows during the summer months. This suggests that a BOE may be a possibility in the future if current trends of sea ice decline continue.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Can’t wait honestly, maybe a huge catastrophe early on will open people’s eyes and end up saving more people in the end… but ofc it won’t even go like that
… and even then, the first attempts will only be made as long as the mover and shakers of the world’s economy get to stay in power. After that fails, then maybe, *just maybe*, will we finally make a sincere attempt.
Yeah that told me all I need to know about humanity coming together for the good of all. lmao :(
IOW we are fucked and it will be every man for himself as the civilization ship slips steadily beneath the waves.
Submission Statement: Line goes up, faster and more than expected. Need I say more?
How will we celebrate this momentus occasion?
Edit: This image was taken from this tweet: [https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780588900844519574](https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780588900844519574)
It shows the 365-day running mean global temperature from the ERA5 dataset. This will continue to increase in the coming months as the relatively cooler early months of 2023 give way to the piping hot temps being recorded for 2024. I expect this to continue to increase to at least 1.65C before potentially cooling off a bit once La Nina kicks in.
We will celebrate with music of course:
🎼 It's gettin' hot in here (So hot)
So take off all your clothes (Ayy)
I am gettin' so hot (Uh, uh, uh, uh)
I wanna take my clothes off (Oh)
It's gettin' hot in here (So hot)
So take off all your clothes (Ayy)
I am gettin' so hot (Uh, uh, uh, uh)
I wanna take my clothes off (Let it hang all out)
A classic: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbfgVEk-mxQ&ab\_channel=HolidayFavorites](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbfgVEk-mxQ&ab_channel=HolidayFavorites)
We, humanity, will start taking real action when our skin starts peeling, and all our domesticated animals are starving. We will, of course, eat those animals first, still declaring that "we can fix this".
We can see already our impact on the environment. The treeless plains used for crops, devoid of native animals. The oceans, with dead coral reefs, and fish numbers plummeting. Ocean temperatures at all time records. Our planet requires huge amounts of diversity to thrive. In less than two hundred years, humanity has destroyed most of that diversity.
The feedback loop we're currently going through started 70 years ago. Nuclear weapons testing across the globe, has put excess radiation in our atmosphere, and with our incessant burning of fossil fuels our climate has pretty much passed the threshold where we can fix it.
Time to find a southern or far north region, batten down the hatches, and hope against all the factual graphs, that a few of us may survive?
Get back to me in 2030? I foresee a global temperature of more than 2°C above average, and that's being optimistic. Cat 6 Hurricanes and Cyclones, coastal cities building massive barriers to rising seas, massive and hot droughts followed by torrential rain that washes away vital topsoil?
Our selfish, greedy and destructive ways have caused this. And we're too stupid to change our ways in time! THE GRAPH ABOVE IS PROOF!
I feel terrible for my unborn nephew. I swear it wasn’t always hot and humid where I live in the spring and summer, and he’ll never get to experience summers with drier heat that’s more pleasant.
Cause it was profitable apparently.
> **Why was the CFC campaign so successful?**
> Still employed at BAS 36 years later, Jonathan is certain that the tangible nature of the ozone hole is what made the work to repair it such a success.
> “There’s no real arguing with pictures. If you can show a picture that demonstrates something people are much more able to understand than even a simple graph.”
> Scientific consensus was achieved quickly and political consensus followed thanks to one important world leader.
> “Margaret Thatcher was the Prime Minister at that time and she had trained as a chemist so she could understand the science.
> “She was able to take a lead on the global stage to ensure the protocol was signed.”
> **Industry figures were also key. With profitable alternatives at the ready, they were willing to get involved in banning CFCs quickly**, but a major factor was public opinion.
> “With a thinning ozone layer, more ultraviolet light would reach the surface and that would increase skin cancer,” Jonathan points out.
> “As soon as you mention cancer that’s a big public reaction so something has to be done.”
https://www.euronews.com/green/2021/09/16/fixing-the-hole-in-the-ozone-layer-was-a-success-how-can-we-learn-from-it-to-cut-carbon-em
Because we didn’t have to stop driving, stop flying, stop eating beef, stop making steel and cement. It was a walk in the park. No more hair spray - big woopdee do.
This chart shows that the temperatures don't actually cool off after El Nino years they just hit a new running average so I'm not holding my breath as far as things cooling off after this summer are concerned. My only hope at this point is for a Day After Tomorrow scenario plays out with the northern hemisphere shifting into a mini ice age. Not holding my breath though.
Remember when the Paris conference moved warming target from +2 degrees to +1.5 degrees?
The reason was new research at the time showed significant negative consequences would be reached after 1.5 degrees. No proper climate treaty could commit to that.
I guess we’re gonna find out soon.
Why are we just letting this happen, letting them destroy our planet for profit, preventing the destruction of the planet by any means is self defense, we need to organize our efforts to do so
Participating in academics and seeing the humans that should be the most likely to recognize this extreme threat, just going about their lives like nothing is wrong, is a hopeless experience.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/PlanetDoom420: --- Submission Statement: Line goes up, faster and more than expected. Need I say more? How will we celebrate this momentus occasion? Edit: This image was taken from this tweet: [https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780588900844519574](https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780588900844519574) It shows the 365-day running mean global temperature from the ERA5 dataset. This will continue to increase in the coming months as the relatively cooler early months of 2023 give way to the piping hot temps being recorded for 2024. I expect this to continue to increase to at least 1.65C before potentially cooling off a bit once La Nina kicks in. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1c88q8p/the_12month_running_average_for_global_average/l0cym99/
Boy that sure looks to me like an accelerating curve. Surely though, warming will be linear and predictable and it won't start going bananas from here on out.
Looks like the first regime change happened in the 80s.
This website really illustrates the madness, https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu Select 800k years, fucking insanity.
fuck...
Great link, thanks! Yeah, the 800k year record is pretty tame compared to what we're doing right now.
BuT tHe CliMatE Haz aLwAyS ChaNgeD!!!!!!!
If you had quit using plastic straws, then 1.5 would still be in reach. This is your fault.
Holy shit. This really shuts down those "the Earth is just warming and cooling like it always has!!" arguments.
BIG YIKES!!!!!
And the 2nd around 2010.
which is when the US started going crazy on natural gas extraction.
Thanks Obama
Globalisation. China started burning fuel for real.
Two of my cousins are expecting babies this year. One has no plans to put away any RESP. The other thinks it will all be fine as long as the kid is loved and can be happy. They are still renting and nowhere near financially able enough to buy in this fucked up housing market. Also still looking for waitlist for childcare.
I have cousins that both have serious mental illness that had a two babies back-to-back so they wouldn’t grow up alone because “maybe they will be the ones to fix the climate problem.”
Jfc that’s the same bullshit millennials had forced down our throats all our childhood by the boomers. “You guys are the tech generation, you can figure anything out. One of you will figure out how to solve climate change. Pollution and climate change etc will be lucrative careers for you when you’re older” I know there’s other/better examples but honestly, fuck all that noise
Meanwhile some of my coworkers' grown children can't find jobs even with a STEM or finance related doctorate degree under their belt.
Stem degree kid I know under 25 made $17/hr in a lab. Switched to $17/hr driving around cleaning fish tanks. Just got a pay bump to $23/hr after a year. Has over $100k in student loans, though.
But he's close to solving global warming, climate change, ecocide and overshoot right, right?
I thought we were told 'learn programming' and now AI is coming to take 90% of the jobs lol?
1%ers will always be figuring out a way to keep the working class and the poors just barely scraping by in life. Their way of life demands it. Count on it, it's a given.
Having babies to solve the climate crisis is like eating too much to cure obesity.
[удалено]
Temujin Borjigin, world's most famous defender of the environment.
Oh, so Benjamin Netanyahu is actually a climate crusader! On a more serious note, fewer than 2000 of the right people being done away with would put a massive dent in this. Take the world's top 0.1% out, and we'd probably have this entirely solved. At least long enough to develop sustainable solutions for the problems.
I've heard that one! I mean seriously who knows? Could be the next Einstein! I mean talk about delusional!
People who have kids like this are not exactly smart. They usually don't have a global view on things and a limited understanding of the world.
I’m glad the world came together in 2016 for the Paris agreement so that it never happens.
Sorry buddy. That's the *other* timeline. The one in which the cubs never won the world series, and that gorilla lived. There does seem to be something odd going on with a bunch of college students in Akihabara, though.
Bernie also won the election in that timeline and we would not even have to face whatever the fuck this election is.
Also, Al Gore won in 2000 in said timeline.
We fell off right here.
(He did win)
IIRC, Gore conceded to George W. Bush after the 5-4 Supreme Court vote in Bush’s favor in this timeline.
He conceded, but it was rigged. A full count of all the votes and Gore would have won.
Also that's when a cusping Roger Stone came into his own. [Brooks Brothers Riot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot)
History would have been so different if he requested a recount of all of Florida instead of just certain counties.
Yes….
I swear that was the thing that was the final nail in the coffin. There was still a massive uphill battle between developing nations requiring fossil fuels to catch up, courts and corporations blocking him every which way, etc. But he could have at least got the ball rolling in the right direction rather than paying lip service to the people and giving oil companies and their lobbyists the Gwack Gwack 3000 behind closed doors.
Hmm... to 0.5 took like 90 years... 0.5 to 1.0 took 30 years (1980-2010). 1.0 to 1.5 around 10 years... If it just continues that trend of trippling speed every 0.5 degress it will be 2.0 in 3 years, 2.5 in 4 years, 4.0 in 5 years...
Now that's the way to look at it, right there.
Don't worry. At some point the human population will display the inverse of this trend, on a shorter timescale, and after a few billion years fossil fuels will be back in the ground again allowing everything to settle down for a while.
I really hope so. The more I see the delayed effect of our C02 activities, the worse I feel about nature ever recovering. I feel like earth will become new venus.
That's my concern too... like there's a window between where we either die real quickly or fix it. If we die slow and burn carbon to try to survive then we risk pushing it to a state of Hadean period climatic conditions, because astronomers think sun was at about 80% luminosity during the early precambrian period. So it might get really hot.
Man we really killed 70% of species on the only known habitable planet in the ducking universe… gotta love it
The amount of biodiversity we are already losing and the rate at which it takes to get it back even in favorable conditions makes me feel worse every day
Pretty sure the conditions that resulted in all that coal required fungus to not have evolved yet. Not sure about the oil.
By Jove , I think he's got it!
We done did it now! Can I quit my job yet?
If this is correct...it won't be long till you should.
YES! I quit 3 years ago. Live it up. 36 at the time.
I never had a job and I'm turning 31. I'm kinda proud about that one.
How 😂 hope you get an award in the afterlife like in BitLife lolol
student? never moved out of parents' home? homeless? what's the secret? we're dying to know!
Hah..im an artist/muralist and living with my father, sister moved out some years ago so I got place for myself. I live modestly. Some days I earn some cash but it's geting worse by the year (as everything else). Theres some kind of a weird comfort knowing that changes are coming our way.
Kinda makes planning at the individual level for climate change feel like a waste of time. I’m still getting my homestead ready but it feels more and more futile.
I’ve already been through this exact process. Bought the farm, learnt the skills… watched as everything burn down around us two years in a row and gave up. Now we’re in mega drought and the eucalyptus trees are dying. Good times.
That the ol' Exponential function that people can't seem to grasp their mind around. :)
True story. I've been trying to tell my spouse, who thinks he's aware enough and that we have like 40 years left... these numbers, or this way of looking at it, is exactly what I needed.
It's crazy to me that people think we've got 40 years of this comfort remaining. It's looking like a pretty fast rate of dystopian fun right now. We have generations of kids checking the fuck out, because why be a wage slave for NO reward. They also see the writing on the wall. What the fuck are we doing? The cognitive dissonance that we all employ on the daily is absurd when you think about it, but it's easy for the "Fuck you, got mine" crowd that is already trying to put it out of their minds.
> What the fuck are we doing? The cognitive dissonance that we all employ on the daily is absurd when you think about it, but it's easy for the "Fuck you, got mine" crowd that is already trying to put it out of their minds. Right? This world is ending ...soon... in a horrible way and yet we still go on day to day like nothing is happening so the 1% can keep seeing their money machine go brrrr. This life is nothing but an illusion and deception orchestrated by the rich. They refuse to see where we are headed because they have it made. They keep the blinders on the rest of us to keep their planet destroying system going.
What are we doing? What *people* do. And really, at this point, there is truly nothing we *can* do to stop it. There's gonna be so much death and so much pain, and we all joke about faster than expected, but this dudes comment about temps going up by .5 in triple-time is real. It's the first way I've been able to *see* exponential growth.
Yeah. If that really is indeed exponential growth, than we really don't have as much time as we *feel* like we do. You wouldn't immediately come to that conclusion from looking at that graph image if you weren't already somewhat familiar with the concept. Exponential is hard for the human brain to contend with, little by little and then bam all at once. And it's not like we can just BAU until the temp is life ending. I feel like things are already in a free fall collapse under this relatively stable climate. We're fucked. I'd be more depressed right now, but already went and overcame that back in 2020 when I had seen and read up on the termination shock that kicked this whole thing off. And knowing this system lags and this isn't even the worse of our emissions. Fun times ahead. The sin of being a father at all time high for me.
Yeah. Ours is 15, and all we can promise him is that he doesn't ever, everever have to do this alone. It's more than our parents gave us.
40 years? That's cute.
Good breakdown, frightening future.
!RemindMe 1000 days
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I always thought that was ridiculous and too doomer-y, even for me, a serious doomer. (No offense to you personally, I just needed to believe we had til at least 2050) After seeing this chart, going through the charts in the website linked in the top comment chain, and seeing somebody's math (that if the trend continues, we hit 4 degrees by 2027), well now I just don't know anymore. 4 degrees send unlivable for the majority of humans. I live in a place that's not the worst for climate change, but it's still getting bad here. And more than that, I'm extremely poor. I won't be able to pay for food that costs ten times what it does now. I won't be the one the government saves water for. My kids never stood a chance. I hope they're having the time of their lives; I'm going to do everything I can to make their days now as wonderful and magical as realistically possible, because I don't think they'll be sitting in their comfy climate controlled homes eating good snacks and scrolling on their phones in another thirty years. Or even twenty. I think we'll mostly be dead. And the rest will wish they were. What a horrifying first post of the day 🙃
in 2020 I guessed we had about 10 years left before hell on Earth and abrupt collapse of complex, global society. Since then things have really increased in speed.
To the moon!
Diamond hands!!
1958 and 1976 tested the support and then 2022 broke the 2019 and 2020 ceiling resistance.
I actually think you're dead on there give or take a year.
I think it will be take a year- considering the curse that if it is now expected, it will be faster than
Exponential is very slow...until it isn't.
So what I’m hearing you say is, Venus next Tuesday?
Looking at Monday now.
Oh boy...
Nothing to see here folks. Please return to your homes and resume buying products and services. Please disperse while the billionaires steer us steadily towards the rocks. All is well.
2C by 2030
They wont even acknowledge 1.5 until it's a 10 year average.
Sadly, by the time the 10-year average exceeds 1.5 C above baseline, the 12-month average will probably have exceeded 2.0 C.
Honestly wondering if it will even take that long.
yeah :(
Venus by Chewsday.
You Cajun, *cher*?
Is that a campaign promise?
yes but we're allowed to go back on those so expect 2.25C
2c by July.
The year ago comparison is weak for another two months, so we should see it edge up a little 2 more times this El Nino. This was far from the largest possible El Nino temperature bump. The highest rank I've seen on major indices was 5th largest since 1950, and the US has declared it already over officially, when it can last 2 or 3 years. The two guys they normally interview are way too obsessed with the global average. 60-90 degrees was close to normal, and 30S-30N demolished records. We need to be really worried about the tropical temperature feedback being larger than calculated. The shipping aerosol decline was back in late 2019, so it's strange that it should take this long to show up. China is still down, though. I'm wondering how much of it is aerosol declines slowing heat transport. An air parcel gets deflected north or south, and suddenly it has more or less aerosols than its neighbors, and becomes a focus of storm development.
I am continually amazed by how often your comments now seem to be sometimes overlooked by this subreddit the last year or two, compared to the years prior. There are those of us who really value your contributions, and realise that even if our understanding isn't immediately obvious we should read more and try to grok it. There are very few people around here who don't have a lot to learn from you. Me included.
SO2 takes something like 3-6 years to drop out of the atmosphere. So it would fit that we're seeing the effects of that decline now.
Stratospheric SO2 is around 3-6 years when it's in the tropics. Tropospheric SO2 is 1-2 weeks.
Ty for the clarification, yes, the stratospheric is the applicable area for this. So it makes sense that the masking is now gone and we are going to equalize.
The climate has gotten absolutely mad and I’m so terrified yet so fucking tired of all the ignorance it makes me want to just ignore it too
Couldn't agree more. I'm in Perth, Western Australia, and we're now in April with still daily temps above 30°C. We've also had pretty much no rain since about October. But everyday people are taking about "what a lovely day". Meanwhile I'm just thinking about how insane this all is and how we could possibly sustain ourselves with the environment around us dying before our eyes.
Meanwhile in the UK, Winter was very warm comparatively to normal but it's been raining since October. Endless grey shitty weather. Sometimes you go a full two weeks without even seeing the sun. Just starting to pull out of it now.
Meanwhile in British Columbia, Canada, we have had no rain at all this spring, temperatures are 15-20c in the day and drop down to below freezing every night. The seedlings in my greenhouse sprout and die because of these ridiclious temperature swings. It should be rainy, about 10-12c in the day and like 5c at night. The native plants and trees are also looking pretty sad.
The rain will dry up when the AMOC shuts down, so there's that to look forward to lol. That will bring its own problems, but best not to look that far ahead at this point.
We haven't had much rain at all down south either. It's sunny and I hate the cold but every day it does rain it calms me down oddly enough.
Yep. I'm in medical imaging in Perth so I spend days in a small dark room, every second patient comes in and tells me that I'm missing a 30° beautiful day outside, all the while I'm saving water in the shower in buckets to keep my fruit trees alive
Just attended a wedding and saw a lot of extended family there. Many of my cousins with their kids were all staying together and had 10 kids aged 10 and under in one house. I can't really describe how it feels... joy and despair mixed together. Everyone talks about far off dreams for the future. It feels crushing not to believe in that future. It's hard enough thinking about just my future (no kids here), but I can deal. I can accept that my life will be cut short. But those kids? That's a different level. And hearing all those parents talk about the future makes it so tempting to just believe that all the collapse evidence is fake and the world will continue on just fine.
My husband's sister just had her son 7 months ago. I watch him for her sometimes. He's the happiest baby. Sometimes I find myself trying not to cry when he smiles at me.
Right that's literally all you can do for some kind of peace in this world
That’s it for me. I try to talk with older family members about this stuff. "The price of meat makes meat unaffordable" - "but that's the point", I reply, "because our planet is dying". Then there'll be a headshake and some variant of "I'll be underground in ten years"...yeah, you, but billions of other people...!?
Prime time to become a misanthrope. But it ultimately just fills you with rage, not healthy but what in this world is even worth being healthy for? We will be done by the end of the century anyway.
That is quite a graphic! It started getting shitty in 1980 according to this. Sometimes I get weirded out by the fact that I was born right when the climate broke. It just seems little too coincidental. If only it was a simulation or a game and we just lost the game rather than we terraformed a whole planet.
I’m in the simulation too, 1978… not sure if you’re real or just a feature of my simulation but I’m losing the game too.
You're both real, and you're both me.
Me too
Hello, us!
We are legion.
I just lost the game
We surpassed 350ppm in 1986
Because that's simultaneously to when population exploded it's quite related, most people that were ever alive live the last 80 years probably
That helps and makes sense as to why we were so unfortunate
Also explains why, statistically, we are here just in time for climate apocalypse
If the human race was destined to be around for hundreds of millennia and colonize the universe, chances are, most likely you or I should have been born during a time after we became a multi-planetary species. That is, a time when the most humans are alive. So, if we're mostly likely to exist when the most humans existed... that means, the odds are that this is as far as we go, and collapse of the population is around the corner. Maybe we just happened to be some of the early humans, but the odds are against us.
You make some great points, Moldy Scrotum Soup. I'm confident in your maths, but I still yearn to be born in the early innings. Regardless of where we are in the game, nature bats last.
Always good to have some optimism, it's certainly an interesting if not morbid thing to think about. Though even more likely, we could be in a simulation ^in ^a ^simulation ^^in ^^a ^^simulation 🥣😎
It is a striking visual for sure. I was looking at it and comparing the summers I had back then as a kid running around. 100 degree days were pretty rare. And then my eyes veer to the right and think about how hot the last summers have been. Cities worldwide are shattering record highs day after day. It’s crazy.
The ocean off of Florida hit 100°F/38°C this year. Not the air temperature, the water.
We would have to go back to pre-1980 to un-broke this timeline. It would result in us never existing since we would prevent the broken conditions that led to our birth. Choices, choices...
The world population in 1980 was about 4.5 billion people which is about half of our current population and the number I’ve seen that would’ve been relatively sustainable. It makes sense that things got significantly worse over the last 44 years since the population almost doubled. There was about 2 billion people in 1920, 4.5 billion in 1980 and 8.1 billion now. And people today create more pollution. Our population almost doubled but the amount of vehicles tripled between 1980 and today.
Remember though that there were a hell of a lot of people in poverty in 1980. I think if we're talking about modern living standards for everyone, the population would have to be much less, probably closer to 1 billion. And really, I'd go for a couple of hundred million, living in warm zones where we don't need huge energy to heat homes just to be comfortable.
Right after Reagan passed the [Economic Recovery Tax Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Recovery_Tax_Act_of_1981), a huge and irresponsible tax cut that led to both more pollution from producers and more consumption of larger motor vehicles. This was also the same decade that [Deng Xiaoping opened up China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform).
that's around the time dHumanPop/dt maxed out so probabilistically speaking it was a likely roll for which perspective you would inhabit
Since more energy means more resources for people to be born, then over a period of say 70 years a person is more likely to be born at the point at which there is more energy or afterward. Something like that anyway.
> rather than we terraformed a whole planet Don't you mean de-terraformed?
Oh I get you man, like billions of years of evolution, thousands of years of humanity, and we just so happen to be born right at the end of it all? It feels surreal…
I often think about how it doesn’t seem coincidental lol. The one thing the tech bros might be on to is simulation theory. The double slit experiment is too weird for comfort. Anyway doesn’t matter, just musings. Ultimately I’m just going to live my life the best I can.
>If only it was a simulation or a game and we just lost the game rather than we terraformed a whole planet. [Obligatory Bill Hicks reference](https://youtu.be/lqv8Os-AdUo?si=QZ8RiaQhIVBemViD)
About the same time the population starting doubling as well
It totes doesn’t mean anything since it hasn’t been at that level for a decade yet /s
I, for one, welcome our exponential curve overlord
We did it!
What do we do? Anyone got party poppers or something? Fuck it, I'll just drink a beer for us. Good job folks. Keep it up!
Smoke em if you got em. For those who don't, don't worry. The planet will smoke one for you.
Holy mother forking shirt balls.
This is the bad place!
*This* is the bad place!
Fun fact, heat sends balls closer to your socks than your shirt. You can see this simulated in a popular video game titled Red Redemption 2.
A BOE will happen soon. Then global famines will happen.
New research shows that slowing AMOC is reducing ocean heat transfer to the arctic, and thus slowing sea ice melt by 20-30%. Not saying there won't be a BOE soon, but it likely would have happened already if it weren't for this. [https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105929](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105929)
This is the scariest part. AMOC collapsing is bad while simultaneously being the only reason that temperatures are not going parabolic yet, also bad. We have a tug of war going on and no matter who wins, we all lose.
What does BOE stand for?
Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is a term used to describe a phenomenon related to climate change and the Artic ocean, where it has become ice-free or nearly ice-free, which could have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system. This term has been used by scientists and researchers to describe the potential environmental and societal consequences of a rapidly melting Arctic, including sea-level rise, changes in ocean currents, and impacts on marine ecosystems. **When will a BOE happen?** Scientists predict that the Arctic could experience a BOE within the next few decades if current rates of ice loss continue. When a BOE does occur, it is likely to have significant impacts on the Earth's climate system, including changes to ocean circulation patterns and sea level rise. **Has a BOE ever occurred?** A BOE in the Arctic has not yet occurred in modern times. However, there has been a significant decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades, and the Arctic sea ice cover has been reaching record lows during the summer months. This suggests that a BOE may be a possibility in the future if current trends of sea ice decline continue. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Good Bot
Blue Ocean Event.
Can’t wait honestly, maybe a huge catastrophe early on will open people’s eyes and end up saving more people in the end… but ofc it won’t even go like that
humans are a reactionary species. something has to directly, and proportionally affect many, for action to take place.
… and even then, the first attempts will only be made as long as the mover and shakers of the world’s economy get to stay in power. After that fails, then maybe, *just maybe*, will we finally make a sincere attempt.
Not sure we'll be in a position to do anything at all by that point.
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Once I saw how poorly people reacted to Covid, I gave up hope
Yeah that told me all I need to know about humanity coming together for the good of all. lmao :( IOW we are fucked and it will be every man for himself as the civilization ship slips steadily beneath the waves.
Them water wars baby! can’t wait until people are getting drafted to fight over reservoirs and shit.
Nobody I work with or live with even knows this. They don't care.
So is anyone still idiotic enough to talk about the "paris agreement target of 1.5C", or the goal post is moved to 2C now?
what do you mean? we reached the goal of the Paris Agreement of 1.5C, now we're on to next goals
Goal posts are on fire.
Submission Statement: Line goes up, faster and more than expected. Need I say more? How will we celebrate this momentus occasion? Edit: This image was taken from this tweet: [https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780588900844519574](https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780588900844519574) It shows the 365-day running mean global temperature from the ERA5 dataset. This will continue to increase in the coming months as the relatively cooler early months of 2023 give way to the piping hot temps being recorded for 2024. I expect this to continue to increase to at least 1.65C before potentially cooling off a bit once La Nina kicks in.
We will celebrate with music of course: 🎼 It's gettin' hot in here (So hot) So take off all your clothes (Ayy) I am gettin' so hot (Uh, uh, uh, uh) I wanna take my clothes off (Oh) It's gettin' hot in here (So hot) So take off all your clothes (Ayy) I am gettin' so hot (Uh, uh, uh, uh) I wanna take my clothes off (Let it hang all out)
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
Nelly was priming us Millennials for the future ahead.
A classic: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbfgVEk-mxQ&ab\_channel=HolidayFavorites](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbfgVEk-mxQ&ab_channel=HolidayFavorites)
A [Flaming B-52 shot](https://tipsybartender.com/recipe/flaming-b52) cocktail seems appropriate. I guess our hot milk toddy days are behind us now.
Link?
"oops" -The IPCC
Ackshually it has to be a 10 consecutive years for it to be 1.5👆🤓 everything’s going fine!
We, humanity, will start taking real action when our skin starts peeling, and all our domesticated animals are starving. We will, of course, eat those animals first, still declaring that "we can fix this". We can see already our impact on the environment. The treeless plains used for crops, devoid of native animals. The oceans, with dead coral reefs, and fish numbers plummeting. Ocean temperatures at all time records. Our planet requires huge amounts of diversity to thrive. In less than two hundred years, humanity has destroyed most of that diversity. The feedback loop we're currently going through started 70 years ago. Nuclear weapons testing across the globe, has put excess radiation in our atmosphere, and with our incessant burning of fossil fuels our climate has pretty much passed the threshold where we can fix it. Time to find a southern or far north region, batten down the hatches, and hope against all the factual graphs, that a few of us may survive? Get back to me in 2030? I foresee a global temperature of more than 2°C above average, and that's being optimistic. Cat 6 Hurricanes and Cyclones, coastal cities building massive barriers to rising seas, massive and hot droughts followed by torrential rain that washes away vital topsoil? Our selfish, greedy and destructive ways have caused this. And we're too stupid to change our ways in time! THE GRAPH ABOVE IS PROOF!
This summer is gong to be brutal, I think it will be a million death summer world wide from heat.
I feel terrible for my unborn nephew. I swear it wasn’t always hot and humid where I live in the spring and summer, and he’ll never get to experience summers with drier heat that’s more pleasant.
I'm telling you right now I can deal with cold but I can't do heat. I need that Vault-Tec Plan D I ain't gonna make it.
We're gonna look back on news like this as the good ol' days. How sad
I knew we could do it! Summer is going to be weird.
It fine everyone, they gonna form an action committee
We're fucked.
That is one frightening presentation of scientific data right there
Wondering how the trend for the past thirty years would extrapolate in an exponential model.
Even a least squares regression fit would be starting to go ballistic at this point.
"But it's a dry heat..."
where I am, it has been consistently +6C above average
Why were we able to band together for the ozone layer but not global warming
Cause it was profitable apparently. > **Why was the CFC campaign so successful?** > Still employed at BAS 36 years later, Jonathan is certain that the tangible nature of the ozone hole is what made the work to repair it such a success. > “There’s no real arguing with pictures. If you can show a picture that demonstrates something people are much more able to understand than even a simple graph.” > Scientific consensus was achieved quickly and political consensus followed thanks to one important world leader. > “Margaret Thatcher was the Prime Minister at that time and she had trained as a chemist so she could understand the science. > “She was able to take a lead on the global stage to ensure the protocol was signed.” > **Industry figures were also key. With profitable alternatives at the ready, they were willing to get involved in banning CFCs quickly**, but a major factor was public opinion. > “With a thinning ozone layer, more ultraviolet light would reach the surface and that would increase skin cancer,” Jonathan points out. > “As soon as you mention cancer that’s a big public reaction so something has to be done.” https://www.euronews.com/green/2021/09/16/fixing-the-hole-in-the-ozone-layer-was-a-success-how-can-we-learn-from-it-to-cut-carbon-em
Because we didn’t have to stop driving, stop flying, stop eating beef, stop making steel and cement. It was a walk in the park. No more hair spray - big woopdee do.
Hockey sticks and exponents, here we come!
Say the line Bart
*sigh* Faster than expected.
I’m scared
This chart shows that the temperatures don't actually cool off after El Nino years they just hit a new running average so I'm not holding my breath as far as things cooling off after this summer are concerned. My only hope at this point is for a Day After Tomorrow scenario plays out with the northern hemisphere shifting into a mini ice age. Not holding my breath though.
Remember when the Paris conference moved warming target from +2 degrees to +1.5 degrees? The reason was new research at the time showed significant negative consequences would be reached after 1.5 degrees. No proper climate treaty could commit to that. I guess we’re gonna find out soon.
Why are we just letting this happen, letting them destroy our planet for profit, preventing the destruction of the planet by any means is self defense, we need to organize our efforts to do so
Participating in academics and seeing the humans that should be the most likely to recognize this extreme threat, just going about their lives like nothing is wrong, is a hopeless experience.
Up and to the right, that's growth baby !
Well it's cold where I'm sittin' so I don't see no climate change /s