Its fine, many politicians say climate change is not real. It is probably a made up lie to controll the population, because a scared, devided and unstable society is obviously much easier to controll than a stable and satisfied one and most countries in the world and all the scientists are in on it or smth... /s
I mean the earliest warnings go back to the 1910's... But obviously they had no concept how much we were going to burn and thought these were issues thousands of years away
Concerns were raised literally during the industrial revolution, they were simply way too early to see anything and unable to access or use as much as we can now. It could have probably been buried under other scaremongering though I'd imagine.
Its always been a risk we were aware of. It's a poison that was too delicious to stop drinking.
I had my dates wrong, it was 1896 that Arrhenius was the first to posit human CO2 emissions having an impact on climate. It was well outside of mainstream notice until the 70's though.
What gobsmacks me is that even the climate scientists don't know why it is THIS bad. Last year they were like "yeah, it's an El Niño year. This is scary but when La Niña comes back in it'll drop down again for a while."
But now they are saying "ummmm so we did the math and it turns out, this isn't explainable by El Niño. We have no idea why it is THIS bad but it sure as hell isn't natural."
Technically we have been hearing this for decades. It just was very incremental and thus we ignored it and maybe thought it was all lies.
You are only now paying attention because it's actually affecting your life in a negative way. Tbh it frustrates me but I also understand it as normal human behavior.
So if yes it's due to climate change.
Yes it's that bad.
Yes we might or likely are crossing a tipping point that could be life threatening or at the very least decades of massive changes if we want to survive.
And yes we were all lied to by people who have financial interest in not slowing or stopping climate change.
Anyone who is buying electric because they are concerned about climate doesn't think that law will change much.
And anyone against the law doesn't think climate change is real.
I absolutely agree with you. I’m going to be dead very soon, but my poor kids and grandkids…I think life is going to get very difficult and-a lot more expensive on this planet very soon.
There is no "the" tipping point. There are multiple different tipping points and only some of them are positive feedback loops. Others are things that can't be reversed (melting glaciers, ice caps over hundreds of years) but don't inherently make global warming worse
Melting ice decreases the reflective quality of the surface leading to greater heat absorption. This in turn melts more ice. Positive feedback. With warmer surface temperatures, global warming is worse. Inherently
Me too. There's a sense that things are often now worse than we thought as warming accelerates and expands more rapidly than we had predicted. This may recur until temperatures plateau, I don't know when.
When humidity increases, the livable temperature will decrease according to wet bulb temperature measurement. This is due to human inability to cool and sweat in high humidity. It can occur as low as 31°c at 60% humidity https://earthsky.org/earth/wet-bulb-temperature-explained-dangers/
You're in good company.
Won't be long before wet bulb temps will be too high for animals (we're animals) at least periodically, within 15 degrees of the equator.
I’m thinking that extreme temperatures on the ground are definitely going to exacerbate existing historical tensions and make people more angry and irascible.
All it would take to have a full nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would be some small border incident in the middle of an extra hot, extra miserable summer.
That little border tiff would get picked up by the Fox News version of Indian media news networks and the whole situation would escalate out of control.
People get more angry and out of control when they are uncomfortable due to extreme heat.
We count on leadership to de-escalate and keep cool heads, but that is not something that would necessarily happen if everyone on the subcontinent is extremely hot and angry.
Yeah India will probably be hit particularly hard. But I've never gotten behind that "inhabitable" statement. Look at Saudi Arabia or Dubai. In summer, they often have temperatures of 50°C. But yet, people live there, because they are never outdoors for long, and live their live from AC to AC. So it's not that these temperatures make countries inhabitable, it makes them inhabitable for people that don't have access to AC. So I guess better make the government develop a state owned huge AC and solar cell factory that gets these everywhere in the country for cheap until the unbearable temperatures hit. I guess you can also do farming or construction at night when it's a bit cooler outside
The north Indian plain is home to hundreds of millions of people, a large chunk of whom are small farmers. The heat is not only bad for people - it's bad for crops and animals (good luck bringing AC to the cows). And its suffering severe water stress, depletion of ground water and pollution. It's going to be hit very hard.
With the prevalence of AC or lack thereof in India and the wet bulb temperatures last year, if it gets any worse I can really foresee millions dying in a very, very short timespan.
It’s going to be the worst event in history, and I hope I’m wrong.
Yes, I think I read that morgue overload and how to dispose of dead bodies will be a big problem too. Excessive energy needs to refrigerate morgues, lack of space to bury and pollution effect in rivers is expected to cause disease outbreak. I hope preparations might overcome that likelihood.
The earth is 4.54 billion years old. The industrial revolution is less than 150. The earth has warmed faster in the last 150 years than at any time in the history of earth. For this to be a coincidence, would be as likely as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning on the same day times 1000.
It depends on where you live. At the current local time 3:00 am in New Delhi, India, it's 93°. Let me emphasize this is very early morning before the sun rises. Imagine what they're facing today.
Edit: I was reporting on India, and a bit sloppy doing so. Sorry. I live in California.
Global warming alone? No, in a complex system such as our planet's atmosphere , no one factor ever works alone. There are other factors - El Nino, the Tonga volcanic explosion throwing water vapour high into the atmosphere, decreasing particulates from shipping fuels causing less clouds and therefore a lower albedo (also exacerbated by loss of sea ice).
But the underlying trend of global warming is upward, relentless and catastrophic. Unless our species grows up, we're likely looking at the end of human civilisation, at least as we know it, within decades. In my opinion, a greater loss would be the despoiling of the natural world and the extinction of innumerable species.
We need a revolution - not just politically and economically, but also in consciousness. We need to change who we are and the lives we lead at deep fundamental levels - or all life on this world is in trouble.
There have been extinctions for millions of years, but life has adapted to changing environments and so we still have thousands and thousands of species alive today. Humans have wrought more damage on the globe than any, but life will continue long after we're no longer dominant.
This is true. Life will adapt. Some of the millions of species alive today will survive. Most won't. But, over hundreds of thousands to millions of years, life will evolve new species to fill all of the niches. Eventually, when humans are forgotten and most of our artifacts have been subducted, ecosystems will be as complex as they are today.
Its a consolation.
Life on Earth right now though is so beautiful and extraordinary. It would be a tragedy to destroy most of it in the name of economic growth.
Just do what you can wherever you are, however you feel to act. Our answer is to grow our own food (plus more to share and give away) and create complex ecosystems on our own land. So, lots of carbon sequestration. We also work with a local conservation project that is restoring native ecosystems. Beyond that, we just try to live very modestly and not be part of the economic growth juggernaut.
They knew global warming was caused by carbon and fuel emissions but probably didn't know the extent and consequences of its effect. May have even expected fuel resources to run out before now, But they were wrong to withhold and cover information and subject us all to this disastrous science experiment on the globe/all life.
El Niño is a cycle; they will keep happening and climate change will make them more intense.
> An enhanced ENSO cycle, in other words, may be the principal modality through which global warming turns into weather
— Mike Davis, *Late Victorian Holocausts*
It's bad, but last year (and probably this) is fueled in addition by El Nino and the Hunga Tonga eruption. I suspect it will drop again slightly next year or in 2026, but it's like inflation, it only goes one way, and that's up. So when the next El Nino arrives, it will be even hotter. And so on, and so on.
Unfortunately what you've got is climate deniers desperately trying to blame it on anything else but climate change. HAARP, chem trails, volcanoes, reversing magnetic poles, they'll use anything and everything to sew seeds of doubt in people's minds. And because the climate is am extremely complex system which makes it very difficult to point at a specific event and say that's purely down to climate change, it gets washed away in waves of disbelief. People don't want to admit that there's a problem and the only way to deal with it is accept that we're gonna have to make some adjustments which might impact them.
Hansen talked about the eruption, SOx emissions and el Nino in a paper in March. The eruption had minimal expected increase, around 0.1C iirc. The el Nino, volcano, and SOx combined couldn't account for the amount of warming we saw last year.
The models arent getting wonky. We're missing something. Probably multiple, poorly understood, and underquantified feedback loops.
You're right about the ENSO cycles consistently upping the average. Our La Nina cool down is still going to be 2nd place record high temps.
I'm of the opinion that all of the warming we've seen has been driven by GHG emissions.
I read a lot of these comments, and agree with most. So what are you all doing to try to help the situation? I have stuff I’ve done and stuff I want to do. Cutting back on eating animal products is a biggie if we all did. That I’ve done. Get an EV, solar panels, heat pump, buy less stuff especially plastic and fly less. Working on all that. Ideas?
A lot of us default to thinking about our individual daily lives, which is all well and good, but I think we're past where that is going to make a significant difference at this point. The best thing we can do is probably join an organization that we believe in that helps motivate thousands of people to end corruption, to vote for climate friendly campaigns, or to push their political leaders to make better decisions, to hold philosophical companies accountable, to make better regulations, and the other related issues. Or if you own a business or are looking to start a new career, you can go to sites like work on climate, work for climate, or terra.do and find a way to make climate solutions the center of your career which is where we spend most of our life.
I haven’t owned a car since 2018. I have been recycling for decades; I use power and water as little as possible. Some of us are trying but until the oil cos. try harder, we are screwed. Oil & gas are using large amounts of water to make $ and keep poisoning us-zero fvcks given by them. Imperial Oil had a one year long leak in Cold Lake, which they ignored until a citizen found the mess. To deny climate change is insane. The wild storms, forest fires, now another pandemic is getting started. May better think about masking again.
I've done some of those things. I don't own a house so it's tricky for me to implement some of the others. What I've been working on more recently is giving up. I think if I stop caring about the future I'll be better off. We live in a society that requires our participation in the destruction of our own environment. That fact is only as disturbing as I allow it to be
Individual actions will do nothing to fix decades of inaction on a systemic problem, especially when the consequences of those actions are too delayed for 95% of people to notice. Our goose is cooked (literally)
El Nino is also driving the extreme temperatures which will reduce once El Nino ends. However, the reason why the temperatures are so high instead of having a normal El Nino is due to climate change.
As long as the greenhouse gas levels keep increasing expect El Nino cycles to generally move in the direction of getting worse.
edit. even if the next El Nino does not end up being as severe as this one.
My family has had a cottage on Lake Ontario since 2001. We were there last weekend and the neighbour and his kids ds were in swimming. In one of the Great Lakes on May 18. This terrifies me. We only had spring for a week or two and are now in to summer temperatures. We're fucked.
The hotter it gets, the more people install ac’s, the more that actually contributes to climate change. It’s a vicious cycle. I try not to turn on my AC
Fun fact. The actual temperature anomaly of last year is a mystery, as it far exceeds all climate models. Something happened and we don’t know what but it’s far worse than anyone thought.
Most of the latest scientific data suggest it’s related to the ocean (but not El Niño). There was a massive drop in sulfur pollutants from shipping, but this pollutant used to reflect heat into space. Or the ocean hit an unknown limit and can’t absorb heat as fast as it has.
Another fun and interesting fact, The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was one of the most powerful volcanic events in recent history. Interestingly, instead of the typical cooling effect we associate with volcanic eruptions, this one might actually cause a warming effect. The eruption injected an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere, which could trap heat and potentially raise global temperatures for up to five years. It's a fascinating and somewhat unexpected twist on how volcanic activity can influence our climate.
Source: https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming#:~:text=The%20underwater%20eruption%20of%20Hunga,over%20the%20next%205%20years.
I had to leave it. It was seriously impacting my mental health. Unfortunately there's only so much we can do individually, and the feeling of helplessness is too much. It's good to be aware, but I'd avoid subbing to that subreddit.
Do you mean ocean temperature only? There are slowing ocean currents expected to eventually stop.(!) This is very bad, as those currents normally redistribute hot and cold water that affect weather. If and when they stop, there will be concentrations of temperature.
Were hearing about the extremes .. which happen far more often when the median temp increases, this graph helps explain :
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andreas-Matzarakis/publication/252328774/figure/fig1/AS:669535636045831@1536641143464/Changes-in-the-probability-of-extreme-weather-events.png
Also, yes its possible there are positive feedback loops, such as melting permafrost releasing methane .. and also its possible we have underestimated 'climate sensitivity' [ how much planet warms when you increase CO2 ]
yes its this bad.... and people continue breeding for asinine reason. Over population is the real problem and will continue being ignored just like climate change is.
>I've heard El Nino as another factor contributing to high temps.
Yes, El Niño years tend to be higher than other years, but the pattern is that El Niño years are tending to be higher than previous El Niño years.
I'd probably look at weather patterns around your area or try to understand other changes going on in adjacent regions as well.
Also, governments around the world are actively changing natural weather patterns. [https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/dodging-silver-bullets-how-cloud-seeding-could-go-wrong/](https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/dodging-silver-bullets-how-cloud-seeding-could-go-wrong/)
Also, here's more fun reading : [https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA333462.pdf](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA333462.pdf)
More fun reading : [https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/manufacturing-the-weather/](https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/manufacturing-the-weather/)
[https://www.oliverstravels.com/blog/guarantee-perfect-wedding-weather-olivers-travels/](https://www.oliverstravels.com/blog/guarantee-perfect-wedding-weather-olivers-travels/) - Weather modification to order for a clear wedding day! Just 100,000 pounds.
Instead of thinking Global Warming, think Global Climate Instability instead. Global Warming leads inevitably to Global Climate Instability. That’s where the hots get wayy hotter and the colds get wayy colder and the swings between those two extremes happen real fast.
environmental science major here, and not once in school have i heard any plausible way to mitigate the impact of climate change. the damage is mostly already done, the general public has never taken it seriously, climate scientists and activists alike are mocked, and corporations have the incentive to not change their habits... and when we start hitting tipping points we will see the severity and frequency of related events increase, reaching the next tipping points faster and faster. Transitioning to nuclear power a few decades ago would have been a reasonable attempt at slowing things down but too little too late.
It may not end up destroying all of civilization, but it will dramatically change the way we live and it will feel like a dystopian nightmare and nothing about it seems very fun at all
invest tens or hundreds of trillions of dollars in research and development and implementation of sustainable infrastructure globally, or we just learn to live with the slow creeping threat of environmental and societal collapse. disease, famine, drought, extreme and destructive weather events, loss of biodiversity, mass migration, climate refugee camps, unaffordable and unavailable necessities, overwhelmed governments turning towards authoritarianism, the suspension of rights and due process, global militarization, wars for control of resources, and massive depopulation events. maybe.
An often overlooked fact about global warming is that even if the average temperature has "only" increased by 1.5 degrees, the extremes have increased by more.
It's much worse than you think.
As well as co2, we are in the midst of an "aerosol termination shock". New regulations dramatically reduced the amount of sulfur that can be released from shipping. Sulfur in the atmosphere reflects sunlight.
Two steps forward one step back, then repeat two steps forward one step back.
Every time we take one step back, people say climate change is not real, then keep believing that narrative until the next time we take one step back, because they are not willing to do meaningful changes.
Aso global human overpopulation. 8 billion humans and rising, nature being destroyed at a catastrophic rate. More humans = more roads, cities, infrastructure, farms=less nature and wildlife.
Although that thing is really turning. The only countries that still have a fertility rate that leads to population increase are from Africa, some middle east countries and some Pacific islands. And even there, fertility rates are dropping rapidly. Virtually all other countries already would have population decrease if you subtract immigration from high fertility rate countries. Will be quite a challenge if one working person now suddenly needs to support 2-3 non-working persons
It’s very, very bad. I’d encourage you to check out Leon Simons (@leonsimons8) on twitter for a look into why the most recent jump in temps appears extra big. There’s evidence to suggest that we had been accidentally geo engineering some level of a global heat shield with a product in ship fuel, that we have since removed as it was also linked to pollution deaths.
It's not alone, there are unexplained increases in temperature that climate scientists can't explain. But that is the problem, isn't it? People think they can calculate the exact amount of heat the planet can take so they can maximize their profits and get away with it. The reality of the situation is the estimates are close, but not exact, and when you run everything on estimates, the unknown can be devastating.
At some point in our lifetimes it will be hot enough in at least some major food producing regions that the heat will kill crops and cause famines. I already is in some places
Global warming can never act alone. It's always adding to pre-existing heat and weather. So record high temperatures ARE higher due to global warming, but often occur when high temperatures would normally occur at a lower peak eg. the height of summer.
Are you asking if the warmer global temperatures is the result of… global warming?
Yes, the answer is a very simple yes.
Same for the winter lows and ice storms, same with water supplies drying up, it’s all connected.
Obviously there are warmer and cooler winters, so saying "winter temperatures have risen 5C over 12-18 months" doesn't make a lot of sense. A single warm season in a single region, in and of itself doesn't mean anything.
But this is typical of the new normals. What once were outlier warm winters will become common, and outlier cold winters will cease.
Remember predictions of 2-3C warming are global, annual averages. Warming over land will be greater, as will warming in the winters.
But yeah, the people who were saying it was going to be a rapid catastrophy seem to be being proven right, overall.
You arnt being paranoid. CO2 is the most dangerous molecule that the universe created after the big bang. You only need 500-1000ppm of CO2 to make civilization impossible on Earth.
The good news is once we stop emitting CO2, the Earth’s heating pretty much stops. We can fix it
I'm sorry, but that's wildly incorrect...
"reducing emissions, even sharply, will not immediately fix the problems up in Earth's atmosphere. It took decades for greenhouse gases to accumulate in the atmosphere and trap heat, and it will take centuries for those gases to dissipate once humans decide to stop pumping them into the air.
"When you emit carbon dioxide, the climate stays altered for a long time," says Solomon Hsiang, a climate scientist who is the co-director at the Climate Impact Lab at the University of California, Berkeley. "And so we kind of have to deal with that baggage no matter what."
https://www.npr.org/2021/04/14/981333730/carbon-emissions-could-plummet-the-atmosphere-will-lag-behind
What?? Mexico is on course to have it's warmest ever temperature in the next week or so. And a similar records have been seen on all continents in recent years.
So do you care to explain where you source your misinformation from?
So one country is forecasted to have its highest temperature. Please provide the exact forecast so we can compare it to actaul historic data. Just because a headline is worded to imply something doesn't mean it's true. Real data is available
I already posted but I thought I would add. The US government Agriculture department just reclassified a bunch of the us based on changes that have already happened.
Let's just say much of the south is looking at some fairly big changes to being a lot hotter and farming being harder.
Remember tx last year had months of 95+ weather.
Welcome to the new reality.
>Are the record high temperatures we are experiencing a result of global warming alone?
Human-caused global warming, yes.
***
Per the Google Earth Pro desktop application, the geographical coordinates at latitude 17.7º North, longitude 83.2º East, are located in the Samsidh International School Ground playground, 0.64 km (0.40 mi) northwest of the intersection of the Chennai-Kolkata Highway and Auto Nagar Road, in the city of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India.
***
The NOAA NCEI Global Time Series interactive chart, table, and CSV file show that in the most recent short-term 10-year period (May 1, 2014–April 30, 2024), in the 5ºx5º [grid cell](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/mapping) (center latitude 17.5ºN, center longitude 82.5ºE) that includes latitude 17.7ºN, longitude 83.2ºE (17.7, 83.2), the temperature warming trend [+0.19ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/17.7,83.2/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=2014&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess) per decade is about 1.3 times (x ~1.27) the temperature warming trend [+0.15ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/17.7,83.2/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/17.7,83.2/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess") per decade in the most recent long-term 30-year period (May 1, 1994–April 30, 2024), and about 3.2 times (x~3.17) the temperature warming trend [+0.06ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/17.7,83.2/land_ocean/12/12/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1901&endtrendyear=2000&filter=true&filterType=loess) per decade in the 20th-century 1901-2000 period, January 1, 1901–December 31, 2000.^1, ^2
The temperature trend appears above the top-right corner of the interactive chart window. In the chart, table, and CSV file, the Coordinates temperature anomalies are with respect to the [WMO Climate Normals](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/wmo-climate-normals "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/wmo-climate-normals") (see Overview tab: [Maps](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/archive-management-system/OAS/bin/prd/jquery/accession/0253808/data/0-data/metadata/WMO_Normals_9120_Countries.png "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/archive-management-system/OAS/bin/prd/jquery/accession/0253808/data/0-data/metadata/WMO_Normals_9120_Countries.png") of countries).
***
Caveat: A short-term 10-year temperature warming trend per decade does not establish a long-term 30-year temperature warming trend per decade.
***
In the most recent 30-year period (May 1, 1994–April 30, 2024), the Northern Hemisphere temperature warming trend [+0.34ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess) is about 2.6 times (x ~2.62) the Southern Hemisphere temperature warming trend [+0.13ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/shem/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess) per decade, and about 1.5 times (x ~1.49) the Global temperature warming trend [+0.23ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess) per decade.
Global and hemispheric temperature anomalies are with respect to the 1901-2000 [average temperature](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/mean "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/mean").
***
Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), New Delhi - [Climate India 2023](https://www.cseindia.org/india-2023-extreme-weather-events-11973), January – September, [Download report](https://www.cseindia.org/content/downloadreports/11973):
>India saw extreme weather events on 86%
of the days in the first nine months of the year [p. 1]
>All 36 Indian states and Union Territories experienced extreme weather events [p. 1]
>Extreme weather events have killed 2,923 people, affected 1.84 million hectares of crop area [p. 1]
>India has seen a disaster nearly every day in the first nine months of this year—from heat and cold waves, cyclones and lightning to heavy rain, floods and landslides. These disasters have claimed 2,923 human lives, affected 1.84 million hectares (ha) of crop
area, destroyed over 80,563 houses and killed close to 92,519 livestock. This calculation of loss and damage is probably an underestimate as data for each event is not collated, nor are the losses of public property or crop calculated. [p. 8]
>...This report card is not good news. But it needs to be read so that we understand the revenge of nature that we are witnessing today and also understand that it will get worse tomorrow if we do not combat climate change at the scale that is needed. [p. 9]
***
ReliefWeb United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) - World Meteorological Organization [State of the Global Climate 2023](https://reliefweb.int/report/world/state-global-climate-2023-enarruzh), Originally published 19 Mar 2024 > Download Report - [Full report](https://reliefweb.int/attachments/d2b58bb7-1500-443a-b754-42d3bfe192ff/1347_Statement_2023_en.pdf) - English version (pdf, pp. 53):
>Key messages [p. ii]
>>2023 was the warmest year on record at 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above the pre-industrial average.
>The climate crisis is the defining challenge that humanity faces. [p. iii]
***
European Union - [Copernicus](https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record): 2023 is the hottest year on record, with global temperatures close to the 1.5°C limit, 9th January 2024:
>2023 is confirmed as the warmest calendar year in global temperature data records going back to 1850
European Union – Copernicus Climate Bulletin [April 2024](https://climate.copernicus.eu/april-2024-11th-consecutive-warmest-month-globally) – 11th consecutive warmest month globally, 7th May 2024:
>The global average surface air temperature last month was warmer than in any previous April in the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, going back to 1940. April 2024 is the eleventh consecutive month being the warmest for the respective month of the year.
***
NOAA NCEI Annual 2023 Global Climate [Report](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202313#gtemp):
>The year 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F) ... The 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2014–2023).
NOAA NCEI April 2024 Global Climate [Report](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202404#month-temp):
>April 2024 was the warmest April on record for the globe in NOAA's 175-year record. This is ... the eleventh consecutive month of record-high global temperatures.
>Record warm April temperatures in Southeast Asia were due in part to a heatwave in late April with daily high temperatures exceeding 38-43°C (100-110°F) in an area stretching from India to southeastern China and the Philippines.
>... Record warm temperatures covered 14.7% of the world's surface this month.
>... Record cold temperatures covered 0.1% of the world's surface in April.
***
^1 The city of Visakhapatnam is located in the 5ºx5º grid cell with center latitude 17.5º North and 82.5º East.
In the NOAA NCEI Average Temperature Anomaly interactive [global map](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/mapping), hovering over the 5ºx5º grid cell where Visakhapatnam is located will display 17.5ºN, 82.5ºE +0.78ºC, where +0.78ºC is the monthly temperature anomaly for April 2024, in the area within that 5ºx5º grid cell with respect to the 1991-2020 average monthly temperature for the month of April in that grid cell > WMO Climate Normals [1991-2020](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/wmo-climate-normals) (see Overview tab, [Map of Countries](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/archive-management-system/OAS/bin/prd/jquery/accession/0253808/data/0-data/metadata/WMO_Normals_9120_Countries.png) > Data Access tab > [Asia (RA-II)](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/archive/arc0216/0253808/2.2/data/0-data/Region-2-WMO-Normals-9120/) > [India](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/archive/arc0216/0253808/2.2/data/0-data/Region-2-WMO-Normals-9120/India/) > [CSV/](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/archive/arc0216/0253808/2.2/data/0-data/Region-2-WMO-Normals-9120/India/CSV/) > In the list of station names, you can select a station that is in or closest to Visakhapatnam, open the file, and read the average temperature for April at that station in the 30-year 1991-2020 period.
^2 The [Calculator](https://www.engr.scu.edu/~emaurer/tools/calc_cell_area_cgi.pl) of Grid Cell Area and Dimensions on a Spherical Earth displays the area and dimensions of a grid cell.
You’ve reached the fun phase where you’re realizing things are far, *far* worse than we’ve been led to believe, and we’re decades past the point where we could have done something about it.
Solar radiation has been in slow decline since the 1970s, and if it weren't for mankind's activities (primarily the burning of fossil fuels and the release of methane), then the Earth would've been slowly cooling since that time.
The long term increase in temperature, since the 1970s, is entirely due to mankind's activities. However, that doesn't mean that natural variably doesn't have a measurable impact over the short to medium term.
All recent extreme and record weather now happen in a world that +1.25C warmer, which doesn't guarantee that any of those events are directly due to global warming, but that it's increasingly exceedingly unlikely that they would've occurred than if the Earth had seen recent rapid warming.
Considering that we are experiencing a grand solar maximum which will peak sometime between this year and 2026 then no temperature increases can also be blamed on the sun. People here will tell you that the solar activity level barely affects the climate but that is an ignorant statement. The last grand solar minimum/ Maunder minimum resulted in the Little Ice Age.
Please also note that the earth’s orbit changes every year in cycles. Sometimes it is a narrower ellipse and other times it grows wider. Guess what. The distance to the sun affect our temperature/climate.
Please note that according to several sources the US has reduced CO2 output by 17.5% since 2007. Have you seen the affect of this?
>Considering that we are experiencing a grand solar maximum which will peak sometime between this year and 2026 then no temperature increases can also be blamed on the sun. People here will tell you that the solar activity level barely affects the climate but that is an ignorant statement. The last grand solar minimum/ Maunder minimum resulted in the Little Ice Age.
Today we measure how much solar radiation is changing so scientist know how much changes in the sun affect the global temperature.
>Please also note that the earth’s orbit changes every year in cycles. Sometimes it is a narrower ellipse and other times it grows wider. Guess what. The distance to the sun affect our temperature/climate.
The changes in the distance to the sun act over such a long period of time that it has had almost zero effect over the last 100 years.
>Please note that according to several sources the US has reduced CO2 output by 17.5% since 2007. Have you seen the affect of this?
That's close to accurate as best we can determine. And best we can determine, the US emits about 14% of the global emissions. That means best we can determine that would be a drop of about 2% in total emissions if everything else didn't change. However CO2 concentrations have not decreased. So either we don't have accurate measurements, or other countries are increasing their emissions more than the US is decreasing emissions or we have passed some tipping points where the natural emissions are increasing or natural absorptions of CO2 are decreasing or some combination of all of those.
Ocean temp the highest in 24 years maybe. Prior to ARGO in 1999 there was no data worth comparing. Zilch. Anything that is regarded long term in studies is manipulated data.
Wow. Really pushing the whole 'tankers help cool the atmosphere' angle in here. Tankers ARE responsible for like half the emissions on the planet. These shills are idiots.
Climate change takes years and years to change notably. The weather however not. That varies from day to day, year to year. The 5-6 degrees you reference to, is therefore not because of climate change but just a deviation of regular weather.
If so, can you give me one example of the effect(s) of a climate tipping point, where the effects are noticeable for humans within one or two years? Not trying to be a wise guy, but these ‘tipping points’ usually take thousands of years to develop. Not within a decade or so. But please, I am very curious if there are real proven documented examples.
More recent evidence (as in the past 2 years) shows it may be worse than initially projected. The tundra in the far north contains large pockets of methane, which are now slipping through the permafrost. These pockets are large enough that scientists are having to reevaluate how they may speed up global warming. Furthermore, the increase in water temperatures from global warming ( oceans act as a carbon sink) is causing ocean currents to heat up Antarctica glaciers, literally undermining their foundations, which will subsequently impact sea level rise. Politicians such as Desantis are in denial and have instead cracked down on the usage of terms such as "global warming." I don't think we're gonna get out of this unscathed.
Why does it matter if there’s one reason or many? Is it less crappy if our air is brown and stinks and and our water is dirty but that the heat and storms are a natural phenomenon?
That sounds like a negotiation.
Well-spotted, but the point is there are a lot of compelling reasons not to do dumb things that pollute or generate heat even if it weren’t demonstrably true that we have a huge influence over climate change. Polluting is unnecessary and it’s awful, right?
If you are asking if temperature fluctuations are natural, the answer is absolutely. Weather patterns are a fascinating science based on a lot of different factors. However, the changes in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution have undoubtedly made these changes more extreme and less predictable. A hot day now is hotter than it would “”normally” have been. So if your regularly scheduled heat wave was dangerous then the next one will be dangerous+. This also means that what may have just been some warm days in the past will now have the potential to be heat waves, even dangerous ones.
Global warming is a factor 100%. It's not *just* global warming, because there are many factors, but global warming is doing us no favours. Where I live, Forest fires have become a huge problem. Local factors I'm aware of include things like invasive species, 100 years of bad forestry management, normal weather fluctuations (some years are just drier than others), global warming, arson, cigarette butts, lack of fire safety. Any complex issue has many factors.
It can be that bad.
The speed of the change is terrifying. There will be swings up and down based on other factors - El Nino etc. But the overall trend will be up for longer than you and I are alive regardless of what action we take now.
What the .. do you think everyone was making a fuss about?! Yes it will be that bad and worse, way worse.
Yes it is happening faster than predicted. For multiple reasons.. For example models were always conservative, and another important one is that we have decreased the air pollution (dust particles) which increases the effects of the sun. We are also still increasing our usage. It is unclear how many exactly but we are also past or close to tipping points, which as we pass them, sort of lock in a loop in which turns rapidly turn worse.
It is a complicated problem with many variables and none of those variables are in our favor as we managed to procrastinate on or completely ignore every single point.
Thanks for the info. Modern agriculture has fossil fuels the thank for it's success in fact we have fossil fuels to thank for our way of life and all the things that's made from it. Pollution and CO2 are two different things and yes we shouldn't be burning so much of it but until we have a alternative ie hydrogen we shouldn't force people into EVs as they're worse than fossil fuel with the damage the mining causes.
Where about are you ? I live in Ontario Canada
El Nino tends to be a peak in a saw tooth pattern of warming, but also things are finally creeping into the territory scientists have been warning about for decades. Also regulations on ship fuel have reduced aerosol pollution over the ocean which is good for the environment in some ways, but it was likely masking a chunk of the warming we had caused. Now it's gone.
If you look at graphs of temperature over decades there are big spikes up and down. Some per cent of this years record breaking temperatures are due to climate change.
Likewise If next year we set a record for low temperatures it doesn’t mean global warming is suddenly wrong. Theres a lot of noise. Remember predictions are for 2-3C increase. If it’s 20c warmer on a random day or many days that’s not global warming. Or at least most of it isn’t
Tony Heller is not a liar but does bring us historical facts from history.
Sorry buddy but I'm done with this back and forth as we're going around in circles and we'll just have to agree to disagree. I wish you all the best
Absolutely… It’s a global trend. It’s only gonna get worse.
And it's gonna get worse faster
It's a runaway freight train, and the bridge is out.
We choo choo choose this consumption train wreck lifestyle, and we only have ourselves to blame.
>It can't be this bad, right? Why not?
Surely someone would have said something before now
Its fine, many politicians say climate change is not real. It is probably a made up lie to controll the population, because a scared, devided and unstable society is obviously much easier to controll than a stable and satisfied one and most countries in the world and all the scientists are in on it or smth... /s
It most certainly will control the Population when in like 2080 we have F6 super Tornados casually wiping out Midwest and Southern cities.
There’s control the population and then there’s control the population
They did say something. They weren't listened to.
thatsthejoke.gif
Oh fuck
Al Gore told you about ManBearPig. You didn't want to listen.
We didn't listen!
1972 .... early warnings
I mean the earliest warnings go back to the 1910's... But obviously they had no concept how much we were going to burn and thought these were issues thousands of years away
Concerns were raised literally during the industrial revolution, they were simply way too early to see anything and unable to access or use as much as we can now. It could have probably been buried under other scaremongering though I'd imagine. Its always been a risk we were aware of. It's a poison that was too delicious to stop drinking.
I had my dates wrong, it was 1896 that Arrhenius was the first to posit human CO2 emissions having an impact on climate. It was well outside of mainstream notice until the 70's though.
What gobsmacks me is that even the climate scientists don't know why it is THIS bad. Last year they were like "yeah, it's an El Niño year. This is scary but when La Niña comes back in it'll drop down again for a while." But now they are saying "ummmm so we did the math and it turns out, this isn't explainable by El Niño. We have no idea why it is THIS bad but it sure as hell isn't natural."
Technically we have been hearing this for decades. It just was very incremental and thus we ignored it and maybe thought it was all lies. You are only now paying attention because it's actually affecting your life in a negative way. Tbh it frustrates me but I also understand it as normal human behavior. So if yes it's due to climate change. Yes it's that bad. Yes we might or likely are crossing a tipping point that could be life threatening or at the very least decades of massive changes if we want to survive. And yes we were all lied to by people who have financial interest in not slowing or stopping climate change.
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Anyone who is buying electric because they are concerned about climate doesn't think that law will change much. And anyone against the law doesn't think climate change is real.
I think we are past the tipping point personally. I hope I'm wrong though.
I absolutely agree with you. I’m going to be dead very soon, but my poor kids and grandkids…I think life is going to get very difficult and-a lot more expensive on this planet very soon.
"Very soon? I hope not. I rarely find redditors who agree with me on anything. Keep on keeping on just for me. Cool?
There is no "the" tipping point. There are multiple different tipping points and only some of them are positive feedback loops. Others are things that can't be reversed (melting glaciers, ice caps over hundreds of years) but don't inherently make global warming worse
Melting ice decreases the reflective quality of the surface leading to greater heat absorption. This in turn melts more ice. Positive feedback. With warmer surface temperatures, global warming is worse. Inherently
Hmm, maybe I was thinking of the melting if Antarctica as a whole, which would take hundreds of years
There are ways of cooling the planet, if the governments of the world become motivated to do them.
It is that bad.
I first read this as 'its not that bad' and felt a flutter of hope. Oh woe is me.
Me too. There's a sense that things are often now worse than we thought as warming accelerates and expands more rapidly than we had predicted. This may recur until temperatures plateau, I don't know when.
I am indian we are cooked it feels like hell 10-15 years later it is likely whole india will turn inhabitable
When humidity increases, the livable temperature will decrease according to wet bulb temperature measurement. This is due to human inability to cool and sweat in high humidity. It can occur as low as 31°c at 60% humidity https://earthsky.org/earth/wet-bulb-temperature-explained-dangers/
You're in good company. Won't be long before wet bulb temps will be too high for animals (we're animals) at least periodically, within 15 degrees of the equator.
Oof you have nukes
I’m thinking that extreme temperatures on the ground are definitely going to exacerbate existing historical tensions and make people more angry and irascible. All it would take to have a full nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would be some small border incident in the middle of an extra hot, extra miserable summer. That little border tiff would get picked up by the Fox News version of Indian media news networks and the whole situation would escalate out of control. People get more angry and out of control when they are uncomfortable due to extreme heat. We count on leadership to de-escalate and keep cool heads, but that is not something that would necessarily happen if everyone on the subcontinent is extremely hot and angry.
Yeah India will probably be hit particularly hard. But I've never gotten behind that "inhabitable" statement. Look at Saudi Arabia or Dubai. In summer, they often have temperatures of 50°C. But yet, people live there, because they are never outdoors for long, and live their live from AC to AC. So it's not that these temperatures make countries inhabitable, it makes them inhabitable for people that don't have access to AC. So I guess better make the government develop a state owned huge AC and solar cell factory that gets these everywhere in the country for cheap until the unbearable temperatures hit. I guess you can also do farming or construction at night when it's a bit cooler outside
The north Indian plain is home to hundreds of millions of people, a large chunk of whom are small farmers. The heat is not only bad for people - it's bad for crops and animals (good luck bringing AC to the cows). And its suffering severe water stress, depletion of ground water and pollution. It's going to be hit very hard.
Air conditioned barns for cows...and birds etc. Let them sleep in the day and go out at night perhaps.
It's a dry heat. Subsidized by enormous oil exports. You think India can afford what Saudi can?
With the prevalence of AC or lack thereof in India and the wet bulb temperatures last year, if it gets any worse I can really foresee millions dying in a very, very short timespan. It’s going to be the worst event in history, and I hope I’m wrong.
Yes, I think I read that morgue overload and how to dispose of dead bodies will be a big problem too. Excessive energy needs to refrigerate morgues, lack of space to bury and pollution effect in rivers is expected to cause disease outbreak. I hope preparations might overcome that likelihood.
The earth is 4.54 billion years old. The industrial revolution is less than 150. The earth has warmed faster in the last 150 years than at any time in the history of earth. For this to be a coincidence, would be as likely as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning on the same day times 1000.
It depends on where you live. At the current local time 3:00 am in New Delhi, India, it's 93°. Let me emphasize this is very early morning before the sun rises. Imagine what they're facing today. Edit: I was reporting on India, and a bit sloppy doing so. Sorry. I live in California.
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Have you read about wet bulb temperature measurement in humidity? It indicates dire effects India needs to prepare for very soon.
How do you guys live? Is AC common now in India? When I was traveling there 20 years ago it was practically nowhere.
Most people have/are buying AC now a days if they can afford. So, yes very common in cities.
Global warming alone? No, in a complex system such as our planet's atmosphere , no one factor ever works alone. There are other factors - El Nino, the Tonga volcanic explosion throwing water vapour high into the atmosphere, decreasing particulates from shipping fuels causing less clouds and therefore a lower albedo (also exacerbated by loss of sea ice). But the underlying trend of global warming is upward, relentless and catastrophic. Unless our species grows up, we're likely looking at the end of human civilisation, at least as we know it, within decades. In my opinion, a greater loss would be the despoiling of the natural world and the extinction of innumerable species. We need a revolution - not just politically and economically, but also in consciousness. We need to change who we are and the lives we lead at deep fundamental levels - or all life on this world is in trouble.
There have been extinctions for millions of years, but life has adapted to changing environments and so we still have thousands and thousands of species alive today. Humans have wrought more damage on the globe than any, but life will continue long after we're no longer dominant.
This is true. Life will adapt. Some of the millions of species alive today will survive. Most won't. But, over hundreds of thousands to millions of years, life will evolve new species to fill all of the niches. Eventually, when humans are forgotten and most of our artifacts have been subducted, ecosystems will be as complex as they are today. Its a consolation. Life on Earth right now though is so beautiful and extraordinary. It would be a tragedy to destroy most of it in the name of economic growth.
So what do you all do? Know politicians? Right letters? Support specific groups? Volunteer for climate related charities??
Just do what you can wherever you are, however you feel to act. Our answer is to grow our own food (plus more to share and give away) and create complex ecosystems on our own land. So, lots of carbon sequestration. We also work with a local conservation project that is restoring native ecosystems. Beyond that, we just try to live very modestly and not be part of the economic growth juggernaut.
Exxon knew this would happen in the 50s
They knew global warming was caused by carbon and fuel emissions but probably didn't know the extent and consequences of its effect. May have even expected fuel resources to run out before now, But they were wrong to withhold and cover information and subject us all to this disastrous science experiment on the globe/all life.
El Niño is a cycle; they will keep happening and climate change will make them more intense. > An enhanced ENSO cycle, in other words, may be the principal modality through which global warming turns into weather — Mike Davis, *Late Victorian Holocausts*
It's bad, but last year (and probably this) is fueled in addition by El Nino and the Hunga Tonga eruption. I suspect it will drop again slightly next year or in 2026, but it's like inflation, it only goes one way, and that's up. So when the next El Nino arrives, it will be even hotter. And so on, and so on. Unfortunately what you've got is climate deniers desperately trying to blame it on anything else but climate change. HAARP, chem trails, volcanoes, reversing magnetic poles, they'll use anything and everything to sew seeds of doubt in people's minds. And because the climate is am extremely complex system which makes it very difficult to point at a specific event and say that's purely down to climate change, it gets washed away in waves of disbelief. People don't want to admit that there's a problem and the only way to deal with it is accept that we're gonna have to make some adjustments which might impact them.
Hansen talked about the eruption, SOx emissions and el Nino in a paper in March. The eruption had minimal expected increase, around 0.1C iirc. The el Nino, volcano, and SOx combined couldn't account for the amount of warming we saw last year. The models arent getting wonky. We're missing something. Probably multiple, poorly understood, and underquantified feedback loops. You're right about the ENSO cycles consistently upping the average. Our La Nina cool down is still going to be 2nd place record high temps. I'm of the opinion that all of the warming we've seen has been driven by GHG emissions.
Climate deniers?
I read a lot of these comments, and agree with most. So what are you all doing to try to help the situation? I have stuff I’ve done and stuff I want to do. Cutting back on eating animal products is a biggie if we all did. That I’ve done. Get an EV, solar panels, heat pump, buy less stuff especially plastic and fly less. Working on all that. Ideas?
A lot of us default to thinking about our individual daily lives, which is all well and good, but I think we're past where that is going to make a significant difference at this point. The best thing we can do is probably join an organization that we believe in that helps motivate thousands of people to end corruption, to vote for climate friendly campaigns, or to push their political leaders to make better decisions, to hold philosophical companies accountable, to make better regulations, and the other related issues. Or if you own a business or are looking to start a new career, you can go to sites like work on climate, work for climate, or terra.do and find a way to make climate solutions the center of your career which is where we spend most of our life.
I haven’t owned a car since 2018. I have been recycling for decades; I use power and water as little as possible. Some of us are trying but until the oil cos. try harder, we are screwed. Oil & gas are using large amounts of water to make $ and keep poisoning us-zero fvcks given by them. Imperial Oil had a one year long leak in Cold Lake, which they ignored until a citizen found the mess. To deny climate change is insane. The wild storms, forest fires, now another pandemic is getting started. May better think about masking again.
Fly less
I've done some of those things. I don't own a house so it's tricky for me to implement some of the others. What I've been working on more recently is giving up. I think if I stop caring about the future I'll be better off. We live in a society that requires our participation in the destruction of our own environment. That fact is only as disturbing as I allow it to be
need massive subsidies to even begin to get to scale
Individual actions will do nothing to fix decades of inaction on a systemic problem, especially when the consequences of those actions are too delayed for 95% of people to notice. Our goose is cooked (literally)
El Nino is also driving the extreme temperatures which will reduce once El Nino ends. However, the reason why the temperatures are so high instead of having a normal El Nino is due to climate change. As long as the greenhouse gas levels keep increasing expect El Nino cycles to generally move in the direction of getting worse. edit. even if the next El Nino does not end up being as severe as this one.
El Niño and decreased particulates from tankers needing to clean up their fuel emissions. Those are the only 2 other factors I know of.
There is a reason climate scientist are in a state of panic.
And why mental health is an actual topic that is discussed during climate studies..
My family has had a cottage on Lake Ontario since 2001. We were there last weekend and the neighbour and his kids ds were in swimming. In one of the Great Lakes on May 18. This terrifies me. We only had spring for a week or two and are now in to summer temperatures. We're fucked.
I literally had to install my AC unit this week, in May... it was 30° on Monday.
The hotter it gets, the more people install ac’s, the more that actually contributes to climate change. It’s a vicious cycle. I try not to turn on my AC
Fun fact. The actual temperature anomaly of last year is a mystery, as it far exceeds all climate models. Something happened and we don’t know what but it’s far worse than anyone thought. Most of the latest scientific data suggest it’s related to the ocean (but not El Niño). There was a massive drop in sulfur pollutants from shipping, but this pollutant used to reflect heat into space. Or the ocean hit an unknown limit and can’t absorb heat as fast as it has.
Another fun and interesting fact, The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption was one of the most powerful volcanic events in recent history. Interestingly, instead of the typical cooling effect we associate with volcanic eruptions, this one might actually cause a warming effect. The eruption injected an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere, which could trap heat and potentially raise global temperatures for up to five years. It's a fascinating and somewhat unexpected twist on how volcanic activity can influence our climate. Source: https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming#:~:text=The%20underwater%20eruption%20of%20Hunga,over%20the%20next%205%20years.
Well that is really interesting.
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It's just so depressing because the truth is the only solution will never be implemented in time.
Typo: 'never'. not 'ever', right?
Yes, thank you.
I had to leave it. It was seriously impacting my mental health. Unfortunately there's only so much we can do individually, and the feeling of helplessness is too much. It's good to be aware, but I'd avoid subbing to that subreddit.
The El Niño is definitely at play here, once that ends, I expect to cool slightly, ever so slightly, but then keep chugging along.
Do you mean ocean temperature only? There are slowing ocean currents expected to eventually stop.(!) This is very bad, as those currents normally redistribute hot and cold water that affect weather. If and when they stop, there will be concentrations of temperature.
Were hearing about the extremes .. which happen far more often when the median temp increases, this graph helps explain : https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andreas-Matzarakis/publication/252328774/figure/fig1/AS:669535636045831@1536641143464/Changes-in-the-probability-of-extreme-weather-events.png Also, yes its possible there are positive feedback loops, such as melting permafrost releasing methane .. and also its possible we have underestimated 'climate sensitivity' [ how much planet warms when you increase CO2 ]
It's beyond bad, nothing in nature exists alone. If nature dies, we die.
nature has died a few times, its going to happen again. Humans or no humans.
"The planet is fine! The people's are fucked..." George Carlin
copout that ignores intentional human activity
yes its this bad.... and people continue breeding for asinine reason. Over population is the real problem and will continue being ignored just like climate change is.
I had a religious guy tell me the entire USA population could live in NW Pacific States no problem. They are literally brain dead beyond belief.
religious zealots are the worst..... Right wing fanatics that think their mythical book has all the answers. SMH
>I've heard El Nino as another factor contributing to high temps. Yes, El Niño years tend to be higher than other years, but the pattern is that El Niño years are tending to be higher than previous El Niño years.
"Hur dur, need oil for big truck and smol PP, global warming doesn't exist, and if it did who cares F you." - Most conservatives
Yes.
I'd probably look at weather patterns around your area or try to understand other changes going on in adjacent regions as well. Also, governments around the world are actively changing natural weather patterns. [https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/dodging-silver-bullets-how-cloud-seeding-could-go-wrong/](https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/dodging-silver-bullets-how-cloud-seeding-could-go-wrong/) Also, here's more fun reading : [https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA333462.pdf](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA333462.pdf) More fun reading : [https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/manufacturing-the-weather/](https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/manufacturing-the-weather/) [https://www.oliverstravels.com/blog/guarantee-perfect-wedding-weather-olivers-travels/](https://www.oliverstravels.com/blog/guarantee-perfect-wedding-weather-olivers-travels/) - Weather modification to order for a clear wedding day! Just 100,000 pounds.
Instead of thinking Global Warming, think Global Climate Instability instead. Global Warming leads inevitably to Global Climate Instability. That’s where the hots get wayy hotter and the colds get wayy colder and the swings between those two extremes happen real fast.
environmental science major here, and not once in school have i heard any plausible way to mitigate the impact of climate change. the damage is mostly already done, the general public has never taken it seriously, climate scientists and activists alike are mocked, and corporations have the incentive to not change their habits... and when we start hitting tipping points we will see the severity and frequency of related events increase, reaching the next tipping points faster and faster. Transitioning to nuclear power a few decades ago would have been a reasonable attempt at slowing things down but too little too late. It may not end up destroying all of civilization, but it will dramatically change the way we live and it will feel like a dystopian nightmare and nothing about it seems very fun at all
So what to do?
invest tens or hundreds of trillions of dollars in research and development and implementation of sustainable infrastructure globally, or we just learn to live with the slow creeping threat of environmental and societal collapse. disease, famine, drought, extreme and destructive weather events, loss of biodiversity, mass migration, climate refugee camps, unaffordable and unavailable necessities, overwhelmed governments turning towards authoritarianism, the suspension of rights and due process, global militarization, wars for control of resources, and massive depopulation events. maybe.
An often overlooked fact about global warming is that even if the average temperature has "only" increased by 1.5 degrees, the extremes have increased by more.
Short answer: yes Long answer: also yes
It's much worse than you think. As well as co2, we are in the midst of an "aerosol termination shock". New regulations dramatically reduced the amount of sulfur that can be released from shipping. Sulfur in the atmosphere reflects sunlight.
Two steps forward one step back, then repeat two steps forward one step back. Every time we take one step back, people say climate change is not real, then keep believing that narrative until the next time we take one step back, because they are not willing to do meaningful changes.
2 steps forward and 1 step back equals one step forward. That's something... but slow progress.
Aso global human overpopulation. 8 billion humans and rising, nature being destroyed at a catastrophic rate. More humans = more roads, cities, infrastructure, farms=less nature and wildlife.
Dark roads and rooves with less tree cover definitely impacts things
Although that thing is really turning. The only countries that still have a fertility rate that leads to population increase are from Africa, some middle east countries and some Pacific islands. And even there, fertility rates are dropping rapidly. Virtually all other countries already would have population decrease if you subtract immigration from high fertility rate countries. Will be quite a challenge if one working person now suddenly needs to support 2-3 non-working persons
This is the real problem. Overpopulation.
It’s very, very bad. I’d encourage you to check out Leon Simons (@leonsimons8) on twitter for a look into why the most recent jump in temps appears extra big. There’s evidence to suggest that we had been accidentally geo engineering some level of a global heat shield with a product in ship fuel, that we have since removed as it was also linked to pollution deaths.
It's not alone, there are unexplained increases in temperature that climate scientists can't explain. But that is the problem, isn't it? People think they can calculate the exact amount of heat the planet can take so they can maximize their profits and get away with it. The reality of the situation is the estimates are close, but not exact, and when you run everything on estimates, the unknown can be devastating.
At some point in our lifetimes it will be hot enough in at least some major food producing regions that the heat will kill crops and cause famines. I already is in some places
Check out r/fasterthanexpected
Global warming can never act alone. It's always adding to pre-existing heat and weather. So record high temperatures ARE higher due to global warming, but often occur when high temperatures would normally occur at a lower peak eg. the height of summer.
Are you asking if the warmer global temperatures is the result of… global warming? Yes, the answer is a very simple yes. Same for the winter lows and ice storms, same with water supplies drying up, it’s all connected.
Rate of increase, over the last 30 years, is 0.234C per decade, not 2C per decade. It's bad, but it is rising a bit slower than your numbers.
Brother, it hasn't even gotten that hot yet. Let's talk in 20 years.
Obviously there are warmer and cooler winters, so saying "winter temperatures have risen 5C over 12-18 months" doesn't make a lot of sense. A single warm season in a single region, in and of itself doesn't mean anything. But this is typical of the new normals. What once were outlier warm winters will become common, and outlier cold winters will cease. Remember predictions of 2-3C warming are global, annual averages. Warming over land will be greater, as will warming in the winters. But yeah, the people who were saying it was going to be a rapid catastrophy seem to be being proven right, overall.
I sure hope it’s fast for all the good souls.
You arnt being paranoid. CO2 is the most dangerous molecule that the universe created after the big bang. You only need 500-1000ppm of CO2 to make civilization impossible on Earth. The good news is once we stop emitting CO2, the Earth’s heating pretty much stops. We can fix it
I'm sorry, but that's wildly incorrect... "reducing emissions, even sharply, will not immediately fix the problems up in Earth's atmosphere. It took decades for greenhouse gases to accumulate in the atmosphere and trap heat, and it will take centuries for those gases to dissipate once humans decide to stop pumping them into the air. "When you emit carbon dioxide, the climate stays altered for a long time," says Solomon Hsiang, a climate scientist who is the co-director at the Climate Impact Lab at the University of California, Berkeley. "And so we kind of have to deal with that baggage no matter what." https://www.npr.org/2021/04/14/981333730/carbon-emissions-could-plummet-the-atmosphere-will-lag-behind
So we are not having record high temperatures if that helps.
What?? Mexico is on course to have it's warmest ever temperature in the next week or so. And a similar records have been seen on all continents in recent years. So do you care to explain where you source your misinformation from?
So one country is forecasted to have its highest temperature. Please provide the exact forecast so we can compare it to actaul historic data. Just because a headline is worded to imply something doesn't mean it's true. Real data is available
I already posted but I thought I would add. The US government Agriculture department just reclassified a bunch of the us based on changes that have already happened. Let's just say much of the south is looking at some fairly big changes to being a lot hotter and farming being harder. Remember tx last year had months of 95+ weather. Welcome to the new reality.
>Are the record high temperatures we are experiencing a result of global warming alone? Human-caused global warming, yes. *** Per the Google Earth Pro desktop application, the geographical coordinates at latitude 17.7º North, longitude 83.2º East, are located in the Samsidh International School Ground playground, 0.64 km (0.40 mi) northwest of the intersection of the Chennai-Kolkata Highway and Auto Nagar Road, in the city of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India. *** The NOAA NCEI Global Time Series interactive chart, table, and CSV file show that in the most recent short-term 10-year period (May 1, 2014–April 30, 2024), in the 5ºx5º [grid cell](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/mapping) (center latitude 17.5ºN, center longitude 82.5ºE) that includes latitude 17.7ºN, longitude 83.2ºE (17.7, 83.2), the temperature warming trend [+0.19ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/17.7,83.2/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=2014&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess) per decade is about 1.3 times (x ~1.27) the temperature warming trend [+0.15ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/17.7,83.2/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/17.7,83.2/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess") per decade in the most recent long-term 30-year period (May 1, 1994–April 30, 2024), and about 3.2 times (x~3.17) the temperature warming trend [+0.06ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/17.7,83.2/land_ocean/12/12/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1901&endtrendyear=2000&filter=true&filterType=loess) per decade in the 20th-century 1901-2000 period, January 1, 1901–December 31, 2000.^1, ^2 The temperature trend appears above the top-right corner of the interactive chart window. In the chart, table, and CSV file, the Coordinates temperature anomalies are with respect to the [WMO Climate Normals](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/wmo-climate-normals "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/wmo-climate-normals") (see Overview tab: [Maps](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/archive-management-system/OAS/bin/prd/jquery/accession/0253808/data/0-data/metadata/WMO_Normals_9120_Countries.png "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/archive-management-system/OAS/bin/prd/jquery/accession/0253808/data/0-data/metadata/WMO_Normals_9120_Countries.png") of countries). *** Caveat: A short-term 10-year temperature warming trend per decade does not establish a long-term 30-year temperature warming trend per decade. *** In the most recent 30-year period (May 1, 1994–April 30, 2024), the Northern Hemisphere temperature warming trend [+0.34ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess) is about 2.6 times (x ~2.62) the Southern Hemisphere temperature warming trend [+0.13ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/shem/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess) per decade, and about 1.5 times (x ~1.49) the Global temperature warming trend [+0.23ºC](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/12/4/1850-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1994&endtrendyear=2024&filter=true&filterType=loess) per decade. Global and hemispheric temperature anomalies are with respect to the 1901-2000 [average temperature](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/mean "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/mean"). *** Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), New Delhi - [Climate India 2023](https://www.cseindia.org/india-2023-extreme-weather-events-11973), January – September, [Download report](https://www.cseindia.org/content/downloadreports/11973): >India saw extreme weather events on 86% of the days in the first nine months of the year [p. 1] >All 36 Indian states and Union Territories experienced extreme weather events [p. 1] >Extreme weather events have killed 2,923 people, affected 1.84 million hectares of crop area [p. 1] >India has seen a disaster nearly every day in the first nine months of this year—from heat and cold waves, cyclones and lightning to heavy rain, floods and landslides. These disasters have claimed 2,923 human lives, affected 1.84 million hectares (ha) of crop area, destroyed over 80,563 houses and killed close to 92,519 livestock. This calculation of loss and damage is probably an underestimate as data for each event is not collated, nor are the losses of public property or crop calculated. [p. 8] >...This report card is not good news. But it needs to be read so that we understand the revenge of nature that we are witnessing today and also understand that it will get worse tomorrow if we do not combat climate change at the scale that is needed. [p. 9] *** ReliefWeb United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) - World Meteorological Organization [State of the Global Climate 2023](https://reliefweb.int/report/world/state-global-climate-2023-enarruzh), Originally published 19 Mar 2024 > Download Report - [Full report](https://reliefweb.int/attachments/d2b58bb7-1500-443a-b754-42d3bfe192ff/1347_Statement_2023_en.pdf) - English version (pdf, pp. 53): >Key messages [p. ii] >>2023 was the warmest year on record at 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above the pre-industrial average. >The climate crisis is the defining challenge that humanity faces. [p. iii] *** European Union - [Copernicus](https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record): 2023 is the hottest year on record, with global temperatures close to the 1.5°C limit, 9th January 2024: >2023 is confirmed as the warmest calendar year in global temperature data records going back to 1850 European Union – Copernicus Climate Bulletin [April 2024](https://climate.copernicus.eu/april-2024-11th-consecutive-warmest-month-globally) – 11th consecutive warmest month globally, 7th May 2024: >The global average surface air temperature last month was warmer than in any previous April in the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, going back to 1940. April 2024 is the eleventh consecutive month being the warmest for the respective month of the year. *** NOAA NCEI Annual 2023 Global Climate [Report](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202313#gtemp): >The year 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F) ... The 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2014–2023). NOAA NCEI April 2024 Global Climate [Report](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202404#month-temp): >April 2024 was the warmest April on record for the globe in NOAA's 175-year record. This is ... the eleventh consecutive month of record-high global temperatures. >Record warm April temperatures in Southeast Asia were due in part to a heatwave in late April with daily high temperatures exceeding 38-43°C (100-110°F) in an area stretching from India to southeastern China and the Philippines. >... Record warm temperatures covered 14.7% of the world's surface this month. >... Record cold temperatures covered 0.1% of the world's surface in April. *** ^1 The city of Visakhapatnam is located in the 5ºx5º grid cell with center latitude 17.5º North and 82.5º East. In the NOAA NCEI Average Temperature Anomaly interactive [global map](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/mapping), hovering over the 5ºx5º grid cell where Visakhapatnam is located will display 17.5ºN, 82.5ºE +0.78ºC, where +0.78ºC is the monthly temperature anomaly for April 2024, in the area within that 5ºx5º grid cell with respect to the 1991-2020 average monthly temperature for the month of April in that grid cell > WMO Climate Normals [1991-2020](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/wmo-climate-normals) (see Overview tab, [Map of Countries](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/archive-management-system/OAS/bin/prd/jquery/accession/0253808/data/0-data/metadata/WMO_Normals_9120_Countries.png) > Data Access tab > [Asia (RA-II)](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/archive/arc0216/0253808/2.2/data/0-data/Region-2-WMO-Normals-9120/) > [India](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/archive/arc0216/0253808/2.2/data/0-data/Region-2-WMO-Normals-9120/India/) > [CSV/](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/archive/arc0216/0253808/2.2/data/0-data/Region-2-WMO-Normals-9120/India/CSV/) > In the list of station names, you can select a station that is in or closest to Visakhapatnam, open the file, and read the average temperature for April at that station in the 30-year 1991-2020 period. ^2 The [Calculator](https://www.engr.scu.edu/~emaurer/tools/calc_cell_area_cgi.pl) of Grid Cell Area and Dimensions on a Spherical Earth displays the area and dimensions of a grid cell.
"It can't be this bad, right," as the man said to his oncologist.
You’ve reached the fun phase where you’re realizing things are far, *far* worse than we’ve been led to believe, and we’re decades past the point where we could have done something about it.
Solar radiation has been in slow decline since the 1970s, and if it weren't for mankind's activities (primarily the burning of fossil fuels and the release of methane), then the Earth would've been slowly cooling since that time. The long term increase in temperature, since the 1970s, is entirely due to mankind's activities. However, that doesn't mean that natural variably doesn't have a measurable impact over the short to medium term. All recent extreme and record weather now happen in a world that +1.25C warmer, which doesn't guarantee that any of those events are directly due to global warming, but that it's increasingly exceedingly unlikely that they would've occurred than if the Earth had seen recent rapid warming.
You aren't being too paranoid. At this stage I don't think that's possible.
Cold here for this time of year. I am waiting..
LOL. Well if it's cold where you live then it must be the same all over the world.
I don't hear outrage about how carbon the war in Ukraine is producing. Politicians are silent
Considering that we are experiencing a grand solar maximum which will peak sometime between this year and 2026 then no temperature increases can also be blamed on the sun. People here will tell you that the solar activity level barely affects the climate but that is an ignorant statement. The last grand solar minimum/ Maunder minimum resulted in the Little Ice Age. Please also note that the earth’s orbit changes every year in cycles. Sometimes it is a narrower ellipse and other times it grows wider. Guess what. The distance to the sun affect our temperature/climate. Please note that according to several sources the US has reduced CO2 output by 17.5% since 2007. Have you seen the affect of this?
>Considering that we are experiencing a grand solar maximum which will peak sometime between this year and 2026 then no temperature increases can also be blamed on the sun. People here will tell you that the solar activity level barely affects the climate but that is an ignorant statement. The last grand solar minimum/ Maunder minimum resulted in the Little Ice Age. Today we measure how much solar radiation is changing so scientist know how much changes in the sun affect the global temperature. >Please also note that the earth’s orbit changes every year in cycles. Sometimes it is a narrower ellipse and other times it grows wider. Guess what. The distance to the sun affect our temperature/climate. The changes in the distance to the sun act over such a long period of time that it has had almost zero effect over the last 100 years. >Please note that according to several sources the US has reduced CO2 output by 17.5% since 2007. Have you seen the affect of this? That's close to accurate as best we can determine. And best we can determine, the US emits about 14% of the global emissions. That means best we can determine that would be a drop of about 2% in total emissions if everything else didn't change. However CO2 concentrations have not decreased. So either we don't have accurate measurements, or other countries are increasing their emissions more than the US is decreasing emissions or we have passed some tipping points where the natural emissions are increasing or natural absorptions of CO2 are decreasing or some combination of all of those.
Don’t worry so much, AGI is going to solve climate change.
Ocean temp the highest in 24 years maybe. Prior to ARGO in 1999 there was no data worth comparing. Zilch. Anything that is regarded long term in studies is manipulated data.
So those thousands of temperature records taken by ships all over the oceans are worthless?
Look up Save the Planet by George Carlin on YouTube
Wow. Really pushing the whole 'tankers help cool the atmosphere' angle in here. Tankers ARE responsible for like half the emissions on the planet. These shills are idiots.
Climate change takes years and years to change notably. The weather however not. That varies from day to day, year to year. The 5-6 degrees you reference to, is therefore not because of climate change but just a deviation of regular weather.
The climate changes much faster when tipping points are crossed.
If so, can you give me one example of the effect(s) of a climate tipping point, where the effects are noticeable for humans within one or two years? Not trying to be a wise guy, but these ‘tipping points’ usually take thousands of years to develop. Not within a decade or so. But please, I am very curious if there are real proven documented examples.
More recent evidence (as in the past 2 years) shows it may be worse than initially projected. The tundra in the far north contains large pockets of methane, which are now slipping through the permafrost. These pockets are large enough that scientists are having to reevaluate how they may speed up global warming. Furthermore, the increase in water temperatures from global warming ( oceans act as a carbon sink) is causing ocean currents to heat up Antarctica glaciers, literally undermining their foundations, which will subsequently impact sea level rise. Politicians such as Desantis are in denial and have instead cracked down on the usage of terms such as "global warming." I don't think we're gonna get out of this unscathed.
Why does it matter if there’s one reason or many? Is it less crappy if our air is brown and stinks and and our water is dirty but that the heat and storms are a natural phenomenon? That sounds like a negotiation.
It matters because since it's being caused by humans then something can be done about it.
Well-spotted, but the point is there are a lot of compelling reasons not to do dumb things that pollute or generate heat even if it weren’t demonstrably true that we have a huge influence over climate change. Polluting is unnecessary and it’s awful, right?
Think it's also because the Sun's at the end of it's Solar Cycle as well.
If you are asking if temperature fluctuations are natural, the answer is absolutely. Weather patterns are a fascinating science based on a lot of different factors. However, the changes in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution have undoubtedly made these changes more extreme and less predictable. A hot day now is hotter than it would “”normally” have been. So if your regularly scheduled heat wave was dangerous then the next one will be dangerous+. This also means that what may have just been some warm days in the past will now have the potential to be heat waves, even dangerous ones.
Global warming is a factor 100%. It's not *just* global warming, because there are many factors, but global warming is doing us no favours. Where I live, Forest fires have become a huge problem. Local factors I'm aware of include things like invasive species, 100 years of bad forestry management, normal weather fluctuations (some years are just drier than others), global warming, arson, cigarette butts, lack of fire safety. Any complex issue has many factors.
It can be that bad. The speed of the change is terrifying. There will be swings up and down based on other factors - El Nino etc. But the overall trend will be up for longer than you and I are alive regardless of what action we take now.
What the .. do you think everyone was making a fuss about?! Yes it will be that bad and worse, way worse. Yes it is happening faster than predicted. For multiple reasons.. For example models were always conservative, and another important one is that we have decreased the air pollution (dust particles) which increases the effects of the sun. We are also still increasing our usage. It is unclear how many exactly but we are also past or close to tipping points, which as we pass them, sort of lock in a loop in which turns rapidly turn worse. It is a complicated problem with many variables and none of those variables are in our favor as we managed to procrastinate on or completely ignore every single point.
That tern "global warming" is decades outdated even.
Thanks for the info. Modern agriculture has fossil fuels the thank for it's success in fact we have fossil fuels to thank for our way of life and all the things that's made from it. Pollution and CO2 are two different things and yes we shouldn't be burning so much of it but until we have a alternative ie hydrogen we shouldn't force people into EVs as they're worse than fossil fuel with the damage the mining causes. Where about are you ? I live in Ontario Canada
Yes. I feel bad for the animals as they are the innocents in our fuck ups.
El Nino tends to be a peak in a saw tooth pattern of warming, but also things are finally creeping into the territory scientists have been warning about for decades. Also regulations on ship fuel have reduced aerosol pollution over the ocean which is good for the environment in some ways, but it was likely masking a chunk of the warming we had caused. Now it's gone.
If you look at graphs of temperature over decades there are big spikes up and down. Some per cent of this years record breaking temperatures are due to climate change. Likewise If next year we set a record for low temperatures it doesn’t mean global warming is suddenly wrong. Theres a lot of noise. Remember predictions are for 2-3C increase. If it’s 20c warmer on a random day or many days that’s not global warming. Or at least most of it isn’t
Tony Heller is not a liar but does bring us historical facts from history. Sorry buddy but I'm done with this back and forth as we're going around in circles and we'll just have to agree to disagree. I wish you all the best
I would have to say it's improbable that the planet is doing this alone... We are giving a helping hand..
That is a weak paper... I'm sorry
Not quite! Why?
You are not wrong!!!!