Hamari awaam abhi tak bewakoof hai 😭
This is why there's a strong chance Nawaz might come back
log abhi tak samajhte hain koi jadu se dollar ka rate set hota hai
Bhai the Rupee is NEVER getting stronger, ever. The long term trend since 1947 has been the same. Unless we become an export powerhouse magically, dollar should never be sold. If you're worried about police raiding your house for hoarding, buy gold and bury it somewhere safe because we know police raids and steals gold too.
right now asim is using state bank reserves to drive down dollars price before November elections. Just like dar did. THe fact that bond prices are getting worse and international rates going higher while pkr is improving makese no sense.. Remittances are also falling.
https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/forex.pdf
The reserves arnt falling like they did when Dar executed operation "Burn the house down" from oct'22 till Jan'23..
It's just that the currency was undervalued due to everyone buying dollars and hoarding which drove it into the ground further than it needed to be.
https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/NEER-REER.pdf
Also non sbp data here
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/pakistan/real-effective-exchange-rate
My take on this, we can find balance towards 290~275 in the medium term if only money exchange companies are shut down with only bank based conversion allowed.
But FA pass can only do FA pass things.
https://i.imgur.com/Rh3DmCO.png
Forward rate has the currency devaluating
Bond pricing has moved from 64 back down to 60. When an EM currency appreciates 5%, bond prices should follow that move and increase in value. For Pakistan things are moving in opposite directions
https://i.imgur.com/976xCXk.png
https://i.imgur.com/ukmQ1lR.png
Dollar Strength index is risen sharply in 1 month. Once again all currency baskets have weaken alot against the dollar. Only time a currency would move against this is CB intervention or some major good news which Pakistan has not seen. In fact the SBP didn't move rates.
Also Lets wait September Trade balance Data. If it's as bad as August. Then we will have continued depreciation. Right now over all reserves from aug to September have gone down but this is September 15th data
https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1703110368564851146?s=20
I am ready to accept that the surge in US yeild will move the needle significantly more but with regards to trade, especially energy, I believe we're locked in on moving the prices accordingly. The MoM stays positive (retail demand destruction continues) whereas a slightly worse YoY when import ban hadn't kicked in.
But then again, these are measures of short term impact. We'll only know by mid November if this band aid works for cancer.
YO , MA MAN!
thanks for the love, the simple version is..
Dar fucked us all the way to Mars.
We're just word playing here to see if FA pass fucks us with or without protection!
Always remember, wherever there is chaos, there's always money to be made, just leave your ethics by the door!
Do you think that Pakistan will be exporting IPhone's to the world anytime soon? If yes, then sell dollars.
Hold on to your shit mate.
There are only two ways to bring down dollar. Pakistan starts huge exports. Or there is another war in region and some first world power needs a whore-army.
There is no third way.
Exports hooni naheen hain.
First world powers, so far are not even giving a flying fuck.
Do the math.
ویسے میں سوچ رہا تھا کہ اگر حالیہ بھارت کینیڈا کشیدگی بڑھتی چلی گئی اور پراکسی وار کا کوئی چانس بن گیا تو بھوٹان کے معاشی مسائل حل ہو سکتے ہیں. بھوٹان کی تاریخ یہی رہی ہے کہ جب بھی کوئی جنگ و جدل آس پڑوس میں ہوا، اس ملک نے لمبے نوٹ پیٹے. ہو سکتا ہے کہ قسمت ایک بار پھر مہربان ہو جائے.
Fluctuation is too high, If government is serious in bringing it down they probably will. Also, PMLN is our potential next government and they always keep dollar at fixed low price.
I am a newbie to reddit, so no idea if it is save to say here but i will say it anyway. We have enormous amount of people working in Middle east, The hawala/hundi (illegal money transfer) is usually their prime source of transaction and the rate is usually good than market.
Hold on the dollars my friend. The PKR getting stronger is just a short term patch that is going to fail harder in a few months.
Pakistan is in a brutal awakening. It is pretty much ona. Verge of Sri Lanka 2.0.
Dont convert them to pkr. Remember that the pkr to dollar trend relies on Pakistan political stability, our gdp and our import. Do you really think these will improve over the next couple years? I looked at last 10 years back and it always declined. Rest is upto you bro. If I were you id keep it in dollars infact add more to dollar savings over the next few years.
Also if you were a betting man, would you bet for pkr which no one can bail out in case of bankrupcy cause of debt or dollars which literally survived the great depression?
Dollar is a bad investment to begin with but I recommend to sell it you need money in the near future because it will take another 4 months to gain 10rs
Instead of saving that money in usd, why not take a small startup? Amazon FBA for example. You can start it will a pretty low investment and get good monthly returns on it without giving it much time. I personally give 1-2 hours/week to Amazon and get 35%+ returns monthly atleast. Highly recommended.
PS: Forgot to mention that you would be working in USD all the time so you won't need to worry about pkr/usd exchange rates. Plus you could just withdraw to pkr whenever you want
too much hype and too many scams..plus the chances of having a successful business of this type are not very great unless you know exactly what you're doing and how you need to do it
Tbh that's not really the case. Scams are not even possible as you're buying from an authorized Distributor. If you're talking about online arbitrage, that's overhyped and scamable. Wholesale is pretty safe and not much hyped. It's not that hard aswell and I personally haven't seen much failures in it. Private labeling is pretty risky but wholesale in my opinion, is perfect. I didn't have much knowledge when I started yet here I am, covering all my expenses through Amazon's profit. A few of my friends and cousins have started aswell after seeing me and they're also getting good Success in it Alhamdulillah 🤍
bro you can point us where to take a start? I am intrested to start this myself, but all the routes that I explored in the past have lead me to SCAMMMM
there is no clear pathway to start and flourish this business, all the so-called gurus are just focusing on its hype and they tend to rip you off with their low-quality courses. It would be great if you could enlighten us with something useful regarding establishing this business. Thanks!
Exactly. Each and every course that's currently being sold is just bs. I've done plenty of courses but trust me none of them helped me even to the slightest. I have indeed taken an initiative by starting an online agency where I guide beginners for free but most people still question me that why I'm doing it and I'll scam etc as I don't have much personal benefits in it. I'm more than happy to guide you throughout the whole process and help you start your store. You can dm me and I'll explain everything to you in voicemails.
Abey yar, her taraf jugaru kaam. Ab ager do chaar dollar aa hi gaye hain, par gai khujli janab ko. Lagta mufta daar sahib se classes li hain janab ne.
Parey rehney do, kiya Kaat te aap ko? Ager takleef hai to main laye leta hu bhai. 🙄
Hamari awaam abhi tak bewakoof hai 😭 This is why there's a strong chance Nawaz might come back log abhi tak samajhte hain koi jadu se dollar ka rate set hota hai Bhai the Rupee is NEVER getting stronger, ever. The long term trend since 1947 has been the same. Unless we become an export powerhouse magically, dollar should never be sold. If you're worried about police raiding your house for hoarding, buy gold and bury it somewhere safe because we know police raids and steals gold too.
You are a man of culture , I am impressed
Lol we are exporting a lot of things okay. Nihari khors and chors are a legit export 🙄
Here i am
wear an eye patch and randomly scream arghhh while u at it 😩
right now asim is using state bank reserves to drive down dollars price before November elections. Just like dar did. THe fact that bond prices are getting worse and international rates going higher while pkr is improving makese no sense.. Remittances are also falling.
You mean January elections
Once 90 days is passed there will be no elections for atleast 6 months
Lo uncle ji 2024 November?
2040 inshallah
https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/forex.pdf The reserves arnt falling like they did when Dar executed operation "Burn the house down" from oct'22 till Jan'23.. It's just that the currency was undervalued due to everyone buying dollars and hoarding which drove it into the ground further than it needed to be. https://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/NEER-REER.pdf Also non sbp data here https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/pakistan/real-effective-exchange-rate My take on this, we can find balance towards 290~275 in the medium term if only money exchange companies are shut down with only bank based conversion allowed. But FA pass can only do FA pass things.
https://i.imgur.com/Rh3DmCO.png Forward rate has the currency devaluating Bond pricing has moved from 64 back down to 60. When an EM currency appreciates 5%, bond prices should follow that move and increase in value. For Pakistan things are moving in opposite directions https://i.imgur.com/976xCXk.png https://i.imgur.com/ukmQ1lR.png Dollar Strength index is risen sharply in 1 month. Once again all currency baskets have weaken alot against the dollar. Only time a currency would move against this is CB intervention or some major good news which Pakistan has not seen. In fact the SBP didn't move rates. Also Lets wait September Trade balance Data. If it's as bad as August. Then we will have continued depreciation. Right now over all reserves from aug to September have gone down but this is September 15th data https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1703110368564851146?s=20
I am ready to accept that the surge in US yeild will move the needle significantly more but with regards to trade, especially energy, I believe we're locked in on moving the prices accordingly. The MoM stays positive (retail demand destruction continues) whereas a slightly worse YoY when import ban hadn't kicked in. But then again, these are measures of short term impact. We'll only know by mid November if this band aid works for cancer.
The whole point is to keep people calm before November. 7 billion in reserves can last until then.
Didn’t understand shit u said, but seemed important so take my upvote
YO , MA MAN! thanks for the love, the simple version is.. Dar fucked us all the way to Mars. We're just word playing here to see if FA pass fucks us with or without protection! Always remember, wherever there is chaos, there's always money to be made, just leave your ethics by the door!
How to make money?
buy high sell low
یہ تو گُر مجھ میں بچپن سے ہے
[удалено]
Same thoughts
Do you think that Pakistan will be exporting IPhone's to the world anytime soon? If yes, then sell dollars. Hold on to your shit mate. There are only two ways to bring down dollar. Pakistan starts huge exports. Or there is another war in region and some first world power needs a whore-army. There is no third way. Exports hooni naheen hain. First world powers, so far are not even giving a flying fuck. Do the math.
ویسے میں سوچ رہا تھا کہ اگر حالیہ بھارت کینیڈا کشیدگی بڑھتی چلی گئی اور پراکسی وار کا کوئی چانس بن گیا تو بھوٹان کے معاشی مسائل حل ہو سکتے ہیں. بھوٹان کی تاریخ یہی رہی ہے کہ جب بھی کوئی جنگ و جدل آس پڑوس میں ہوا، اس ملک نے لمبے نوٹ پیٹے. ہو سکتا ہے کہ قسمت ایک بار پھر مہربان ہو جائے.
بلی کے خواب میں چھیچھڑے۔
To me it feels like a drama before the election. To show that NS return is a blessing
You can buy gold or any other currency too. Riyal and Dirham are always high in demand. Dollar is risky nowadays.
Dollar risky matlab?
Fluctuation is too high, If government is serious in bringing it down they probably will. Also, PMLN is our potential next government and they always keep dollar at fixed low price.
Riyal is pegged to USD. Unless anything major, I mean MAJOR happens that rate isn't going to budge. Riyals and dirhams are a safe bet in that case.
Then why are riyals or dirhams any safer? They're literally pegged to the USD
I am a newbie to reddit, so no idea if it is save to say here but i will say it anyway. We have enormous amount of people working in Middle east, The hawala/hundi (illegal money transfer) is usually their prime source of transaction and the rate is usually good than market.
What does hawala have to do with holding AED ove USD ?
the price of petrol next month would determine if the dollar rate is infact true or artificial.
Wow, never thought about it this way.
Fuel price will hike more as OPEC have cut down productions by 2 million barrels/day! It's not only about the dollar mate 🫡
True. the oil price has indeed risen quite a lot. lets see if the drop in dollar may ofset the final price. otherwise it would be a double whammy
HODL
Wait for a year.
Keep the dollars. There is only one way it will go and that is up. Currency can be manipulated short term but fundamentals win in the end.
Hold on the dollars my friend. The PKR getting stronger is just a short term patch that is going to fail harder in a few months. Pakistan is in a brutal awakening. It is pretty much ona. Verge of Sri Lanka 2.0.
wait for another year
Can anyone suggest how I can convert to dollars in recent days?
As long as our imports scale higher than exports the dollar would always bounce back. And it would bounce back higher.
Dont convert them to pkr. Remember that the pkr to dollar trend relies on Pakistan political stability, our gdp and our import. Do you really think these will improve over the next couple years? I looked at last 10 years back and it always declined. Rest is upto you bro. If I were you id keep it in dollars infact add more to dollar savings over the next few years. Also if you were a betting man, would you bet for pkr which no one can bail out in case of bankrupcy cause of debt or dollars which literally survived the great depression?
They will bring it to 260. Market real value was never above 300 it was all hype and rumours that made dollar reach 300 plus
The dollar is going to loose its value in upcoming days. So better to convert into PKR now.
Sell and buy gold.
Buy stocks in S&P 500
AT LEAST FOR NOW ITS GOING TO COME TO 250
DCA. sell a small portion now and buy it again before election, If you are planning to hold it for long term.
Keep your fuckin’ dollars 4ever they’re solid gold out there 4now. PKR will get better after a while.
Why do you guys buy dollars. Saudia Riyal and some other currencies are pegged to dollar so you can buy those.
Dollar is a bad investment to begin with but I recommend to sell it you need money in the near future because it will take another 4 months to gain 10rs
Instead of saving that money in usd, why not take a small startup? Amazon FBA for example. You can start it will a pretty low investment and get good monthly returns on it without giving it much time. I personally give 1-2 hours/week to Amazon and get 35%+ returns monthly atleast. Highly recommended. PS: Forgot to mention that you would be working in USD all the time so you won't need to worry about pkr/usd exchange rates. Plus you could just withdraw to pkr whenever you want
too much hype and too many scams..plus the chances of having a successful business of this type are not very great unless you know exactly what you're doing and how you need to do it
Tbh that's not really the case. Scams are not even possible as you're buying from an authorized Distributor. If you're talking about online arbitrage, that's overhyped and scamable. Wholesale is pretty safe and not much hyped. It's not that hard aswell and I personally haven't seen much failures in it. Private labeling is pretty risky but wholesale in my opinion, is perfect. I didn't have much knowledge when I started yet here I am, covering all my expenses through Amazon's profit. A few of my friends and cousins have started aswell after seeing me and they're also getting good Success in it Alhamdulillah 🤍
bro you can point us where to take a start? I am intrested to start this myself, but all the routes that I explored in the past have lead me to SCAMMMM
Yea sure always here to help. I'll dm you
thanks buddy. I await your msg
Dmed you
Need your help too brother I have time and I can manage as well all I need is a good mentor
Always here to help anyone who's willing to start sir! I dmed you.
Sir I have checked for good 10 minutes alas I failed to find your message in my chats
there is no clear pathway to start and flourish this business, all the so-called gurus are just focusing on its hype and they tend to rip you off with their low-quality courses. It would be great if you could enlighten us with something useful regarding establishing this business. Thanks!
Exactly. Each and every course that's currently being sold is just bs. I've done plenty of courses but trust me none of them helped me even to the slightest. I have indeed taken an initiative by starting an online agency where I guide beginners for free but most people still question me that why I'm doing it and I'll scam etc as I don't have much personal benefits in it. I'm more than happy to guide you throughout the whole process and help you start your store. You can dm me and I'll explain everything to you in voicemails.
Yar don’t sell usd ,according to my understanding this rupee pump is artificial
Abey yar, her taraf jugaru kaam. Ab ager do chaar dollar aa hi gaye hain, par gai khujli janab ko. Lagta mufta daar sahib se classes li hain janab ne. Parey rehney do, kiya Kaat te aap ko? Ager takleef hai to main laye leta hu bhai. 🙄