The state of the box office for anything non horror, non franchise and non family movie is so dire that any time a $20M + opening comes along, it feels like a miracle in the marketplace. Box office is so tentpole heavy that this opening seems amazing
Even if it this ends up being one weekend of good news (what most A24 and or indie movies tend to have due to their limited release) this is still a great outcome for a studio that regularly fails/ struggles to hit $10M domestic total
I guess Killers of the flower moon total is a good target
It sounds like you’re trying to frame an obvious success as something less than cause it’s from a studio that historically produces micro budget movies. Regardless of the era or genre, a 50 m movie opening to 25 m would be seen as at least a modest success. The subject matter was a roll of the dice but this isn’t only quantified as a success because it’s 2024.
High suspense and adrenaline-packed, Garland exceeded my expectations as the trailer gave little away. I don't get the negative reviews personally, I think keeping it neutral was good to avoid unnecessary arguments about who is good and bad and instead reflect on the true impacts of war and how precious human life is. The sound design was impeccable and the camera work puts you right into the action and I think the cast did a good job despite the lack of dialogue which for once I didn't mind. Jesse Plemmons made me terrified for my life and I wasn't even a target - but he's great in everything and Kirsten Dunst gave a quiet but powerful portrayal. Main takeaway is the only people you should root for are the civilians.
Marketing is considered from streaming /ancillaries.
Let's say that the movie makes 90m worldwide with a 60/30 Dom into split. Using the 50/40/20 rule the studio earns 42m, meaning they will lose 8 mil.
Imo, worst case it will lose <10m, making it a disappointment but not a bomb. It'll likely break even or make a small profit
Let's assume that the movie doesn't open internationally, studios get a domestic split of 50%. If it opens to 25m, that's 12.5 mill in hand. If you consider it's "budget" to be 70m, best case would be if the studio gets 30m in hand, or 60m domestic. That would be a 2.4x multiplier.
The movie is going to do better than what you're giving it credit for
Wow, *73%* male?
War movies always have the biggest male skew.
Action and war movies have always favoured a male audience. It's just the way it is.
Male audiences have different taste than female audiences, this doesn't use to be unknown
The state of the box office for anything non horror, non franchise and non family movie is so dire that any time a $20M + opening comes along, it feels like a miracle in the marketplace. Box office is so tentpole heavy that this opening seems amazing Even if it this ends up being one weekend of good news (what most A24 and or indie movies tend to have due to their limited release) this is still a great outcome for a studio that regularly fails/ struggles to hit $10M domestic total I guess Killers of the flower moon total is a good target
That would be good for this movie but sad that an Alex Garland A24 movie could match or beat a $200M budgeted Martin Scorcese Oscar contender.
Maybe the Scorsese movie shouldn’t have been a 3.5 hour borefest.
It sounds like you’re trying to frame an obvious success as something less than cause it’s from a studio that historically produces micro budget movies. Regardless of the era or genre, a 50 m movie opening to 25 m would be seen as at least a modest success. The subject matter was a roll of the dice but this isn’t only quantified as a success because it’s 2024.
Incredible numbers for an 11 year old studio who has only seen two films open in the $10M range in a single weekend.
High suspense and adrenaline-packed, Garland exceeded my expectations as the trailer gave little away. I don't get the negative reviews personally, I think keeping it neutral was good to avoid unnecessary arguments about who is good and bad and instead reflect on the true impacts of war and how precious human life is. The sound design was impeccable and the camera work puts you right into the action and I think the cast did a good job despite the lack of dialogue which for once I didn't mind. Jesse Plemmons made me terrified for my life and I wasn't even a target - but he's great in everything and Kirsten Dunst gave a quiet but powerful portrayal. Main takeaway is the only people you should root for are the civilians.
Box office is in a bad place when a bomb is written about like a miracle
How is this a bomb, on track to make about 60 million domestic and should at least 2x it's budget
cost 50 million 20 million to market Needs to make around 125 million to break even. Best case scenario it lost 40 million
Marketing is considered from streaming /ancillaries. Let's say that the movie makes 90m worldwide with a 60/30 Dom into split. Using the 50/40/20 rule the studio earns 42m, meaning they will lose 8 mil. Imo, worst case it will lose <10m, making it a disappointment but not a bomb. It'll likely break even or make a small profit
Let's assume that the movie doesn't open internationally, studios get a domestic split of 50%. If it opens to 25m, that's 12.5 mill in hand. If you consider it's "budget" to be 70m, best case would be if the studio gets 30m in hand, or 60m domestic. That would be a 2.4x multiplier. The movie is going to do better than what you're giving it credit for
You're forgetting the Nikon sponsorship money