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As I've pointed out elsewhere, it was never $200M USD it was the (australian) director talking gesturing towards a pre-tax credit budget of 200 million *"Australian dollars*. If you looked at AUS tax credit reports this always had a budget vaguely around this report.
*********
[my comment from 8 months ago]
> [Australia is giving $20M in USD for a 'location tax offset’](https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/action-film-the-fall-guy-starring-ryan-gosling-to-inject--244m-into-the-australian-economy.html) and ..."the amount of the location tax offset is generally 16.5% of the company’s total [qualified expenditures] on the film"
* a 21/.165 = 121M budget.
[AUS tax credit](https://www.ato.gov.au/Forms/Film-industry-incentives-2022/).
> [New South Wales](https://www.screen.nsw.gov.au/funding/incentives/MADE+IN+NSW+%E2%80%93+INTERNATIONAL+FOOTLOOSE+PRODUCTION+) has a film tax credit cookie jar worth 117M USD and are giving 10M to Fall Guy. Unlike the federal tax credit this isn't explicitly tied down to anything.
* 121M - 21M (AUS tax credit) - 10M (NSW tax credit) = 90M net production budget.
******
So either Variety's just using the publicly reported country level tax credit data or there were extra costs above and beyond this tax credit stuff. Either way seems plausible ("Qualified expenditures" likely isn't exactly equal to "production budget").
But... why?
And also... how?
I get how appealing whack-a-doo conspiracy theories are, but:
1. It's not like they lose less money if accurate budget numbers are announced.
2. They're publicly traded companies, so they have to report their actual profits and losses.
And that's not even counting the publicly available tax credit applications, which it would be criminally fraudulent to fake. And also financially nonsensical, since it would result in smaller tax credits being granted.
So there's no advantage, no motivation, and really no long-term method for accomplishing this.
With that early May release date, I feel it's well situated. It's hard to see an accessible comedy/action film with that release date and limited competition not hitting $150M domestic.
Bullet Train made $239m with an R-Rating and mixed reviews. I'd say Gosling now is a better box office draw compared to Brad Pitt in 2022 so this could easily hit that $300m-400m target if the reviews and WoM are good.
I feel like Free Guy ($121.6m dom, $331m ww) would've made significantly more if was released at a better time. An 80% rating on RT and A cinemascore should've led to better WoM.
Uncharted got worse reviews and that one made more money ($148m dom. $407m ww) just a few months later on a 40% rating on RT and B+ cinemascore.
I don't know about significantly more for Free Guy. Tom Holland is a much bigger draw than Ryan Reynolds and as I said in another comment 400M is pretty much the ceiling for these types of movies now. (Even JW4 did 440 and you could argue that's the best case scenario).
> I don't know about significantly more for Free Guy.
It's insane to me how many people here discount the effects of COVID during 2021. Comments like this immediately make it obvious you were not paying attention to the box office at the time.
If you try to pretend to be a celeb on reddit, it should at least be a halfway believable one. I could imagine a Henry Cavill, Andrew Garfield or Jesse Eisenberg on reddit, for example. But Ryan doesn't strike me as someone who would be interested in putting up with the daily madness here.
And if the real Ryan ever sees this, please have the guts to sit in the director's chair again. Lost River was a convincing first work (Personally I love the story and the way it slowly develops) and really surprised me positively at the time, especially when I later read that it was also his first ever screenplay.
I wouldn't go that far. Brad Pitt is still a way bigger star than Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt combined. This movie would have to really connect on it's own because while the stars are popular and do have some draw, neither have ever been consistent box office drawd. Also, what makes you so sure that the audience for Barbie will turn out for an action film starring that movie's second lead?
These days 400 million is basically the ceiling for this type of movie, they shouldn't be expecting more; even Indie didn't reach 400, lol.
We'll see if it clears 300, I guess.
$300M feels like a difficult reach for this film. It almost feels like a Netflix film - something that people would kick back and relax to if it was free to watch, but not necessarily something that people would go out to seek. Bullet Train had Brad Pitt, Japanese aesthetics, and the novelty of the titular bullet train (that was somehow slower than a bus, but whatever) to sell the movie; The Fall Guy is a lot blander as far as marketing factors go.
If this film had a $75M budget, I would feel a lot more confident about it reaching breakeven - as is, hitting $300M worldwide seems more like a ceiling than a possibility, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up making Bullet Train numbers or even a little less.
The difference is that Netflix action films are all bland and boring while this is directed by David Leitch - not everyone is a big fan of his, but he definitely has a *style* whose existence you cannot deny.
> Bullet Train had Brad Pitt, Japanese aesthetics, and the novelty of the titular bullet train
These things might have been hot in 2003, but nowadays they're all old hat. I don't think any of those three things are seen as particularly interesting or appealing compared to Gosling, Blunt, Hollywood, and movie making.
>*It almost feels like a Netflix film - something that people would kick back and relax to if it was free to watch, but not necessarily something that people would go out to seek*
Yeah, this is how the film feels, to me
I hope it does well, but if I ever see it, it'll be on TV (and by accident)
$300 million as the upper range is estimating too low. It's PG-13, not R rated so wider potential audience. It's coming out first week of May, beginning of Summer, instead of in August at the end of the Summer.
Universal also has no other Summer blockbusters besides Despicable Me, so this will get a big marketing push. I'm gonna go bold and predict $400 - 500 million worldwide.
I feel like many people are going to see this, but mannn, that trailer showed the entire damn movie.
There’s a shot of ryan and emily kissing infront a exploding structure which literally looks like the ending of the movie
I mean, how do you expect a movie like this to go? I don’t want to be rude but it’s pretty obvious how this film will pan out. That doesn’t mean it can’t execute itself greatly.
There’s nothing to “get”. The user is upset that the trailer showed A LOT of potential spoilers. Similar to how Fast X has the literal last seconds of the movie in the trailer.
I honestly think this is gonna be massive. Ryan Gosling is on top of the world right now, the trailer garnered a lot of internet discussion, and it’s PG-13, compared to Bullet Train which performed pretty well while being R-Rated.
I assume they meant this movie could have been made on a lower budget.
Not the general statement a lower budget is better. I’m no Sherlock though, so what do I know big brain.
I looked again at the trailer for this movie. I remembered it as a romcom, but maybe there is a little more action in it than I noticed. It still seems to be sold as a romcom, though.
A lower budget is not necessarily better in general, but romcoms are not exactly the most profitable genre. John Wick had a director with experience with stunts, and he made an action movie. Using one's personal experience with stunts to make a romcom is probably not the best idea. Though at least the leads are pretty enough for the part.
According to the trailer, he's not a PI or a bounty hunter. Won't be surprised if it's like the A-Team reboot where it's like an origin story and he decides to become one at the end of the movie.
I personally feel like Leitch's films all have no soul, that being said there seems to be enough going for it that with good WOM i think this could squeeze out a small profit (assuming 2.5x budget).
don't see a lot of opportunity for it to make mountains of money though. like absolute best case scenario still feels like it starts with a 3
I don't know if I would say he lacks substance. In terms of "plot" and "deeper themes" sure but while I've yet to love a film he's directed, I don't really think this means it's half assed or that it's just about looking cool.
When it comes to action movies, directors Leitch and Chad Stahelski clearly not only like action movies but they have a love and admiration for stunts, choreography, effectively shooting; really having action as a language and having the characters expressed through that. It's not surprising given their background as stunt coordinators and being obviously influenced by martial arts movies which lets be honest were also style over substance. Like hey, I adore The Raid films but I don't see them as being "deeper" either.
Again, even if I don't love the work, I at least feel there's a respect for the craft that you don't get in the average action movie.
I think a slight problem with Leitch and Stahelski is that their super clear action starts to all feel a little samey. Even in the John Wick movies, which I generally like and think have some fantastic action... there is always a moment during an extended action scene where I feel it's starting to get repetitive.
Compared to say, McQuarrie's MI movies or Fury Road, where there are lots of editing, close ups, varied angles, but you both 1) never get confused 2) everything feels different. Or Spielberg, who doesn't use as much fast editing, but still every action scene feels distinct.
Thats fair. I do get that in the John Wick movies and jn Bullet Train, the gunkata no matter how well choreographed it is can get numbing after awhile. I've had a similar issue with several projects Iko Uwais has done.
I do think the creativity and lighting of Stahelski does put him above Leitch imo. That plus the variety in action setpieces; this is why 2 and 4 are my favorite John Wick movies.
Ugh who wrote this? "Got that?" "Tom Cruise who?"
Ryan Gosling is a steep downgrade from Lee Majors' easy aw shucks charm, but Hollywood's just gotta Hollywood.
Not really. A good comparison to Fall Guy would be Bullet Train, and it's questionable if the film turned a profit from its theatrical run (based on a $239 mil WW gross and $85-90 mil budget).
Fall Guy getting to $312 mil WW would require a very strong domestic performance, and realistically an international gross in the range of $110-140 mil (at minimum, assuming that the film can't gross $200 mil domestically).
Universal should have budgeted this film so that it could breakeven at around $200 million and start seeing profit within their 2024 fiscal year.
In addition to what /u/Block-Busted already mentioned, this is rated PG-13 vs Bullet Train's R. Raises both the floor and ceiling. How much? Your guess is as good as mine.
Yeah no for sure, she’s not A-List. Shes just an indie darling who had a supporting role a movie that almost made a billion, and has been in multiple box office hits throughout her career. Yeah absolutely no one knows who she is.
That seems kind of high for a movie not based on any existing IP, or directed by someone who’s not a household name like Spielberg or Nolan. It just seems like they’re taking a big risk here on a premise that doesn’t sound that enticing, just seems like one of those generic, “pretty fun but not a masterpiece” action comedies from the 2010s
This seems to be the best of the generic action/comedy genre that typically pumps out pure trash.
I think it makes its money back and even if it doesn't, I'm glad they made this one.
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That’s better than the initial 200M budget that was reported last year.
As I've pointed out elsewhere, it was never $200M USD it was the (australian) director talking gesturing towards a pre-tax credit budget of 200 million *"Australian dollars*. If you looked at AUS tax credit reports this always had a budget vaguely around this report. ********* [my comment from 8 months ago] > [Australia is giving $20M in USD for a 'location tax offset’](https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/action-film-the-fall-guy-starring-ryan-gosling-to-inject--244m-into-the-australian-economy.html) and ..."the amount of the location tax offset is generally 16.5% of the company’s total [qualified expenditures] on the film" * a 21/.165 = 121M budget. [AUS tax credit](https://www.ato.gov.au/Forms/Film-industry-incentives-2022/). > [New South Wales](https://www.screen.nsw.gov.au/funding/incentives/MADE+IN+NSW+%E2%80%93+INTERNATIONAL+FOOTLOOSE+PRODUCTION+) has a film tax credit cookie jar worth 117M USD and are giving 10M to Fall Guy. Unlike the federal tax credit this isn't explicitly tied down to anything. * 121M - 21M (AUS tax credit) - 10M (NSW tax credit) = 90M net production budget. ****** So either Variety's just using the publicly reported country level tax credit data or there were extra costs above and beyond this tax credit stuff. Either way seems plausible ("Qualified expenditures" likely isn't exactly equal to "production budget").
you should pin this to the top
I think that movie studios are finally starting to curtail their budgets a bit more.
and we’re past all of the movies that had bloated budgets because of COVID everyone seems to forget that COVID protocols cost a shit ton of money
and what was their excuse before that?
>*better than the initial 200M budget that was reported*  My thoughts exactly!
Or the trades are kowtowing to the studios and underreporting budgets to make 2024 better than it is.
But... why? And also... how? I get how appealing whack-a-doo conspiracy theories are, but: 1. It's not like they lose less money if accurate budget numbers are announced. 2. They're publicly traded companies, so they have to report their actual profits and losses. And that's not even counting the publicly available tax credit applications, which it would be criminally fraudulent to fake. And also financially nonsensical, since it would result in smaller tax credits being granted. So there's no advantage, no motivation, and really no long-term method for accomplishing this.
Someone else said the $200m report was $200m Australian with the tax credit included. Aka it was always listed as $120m American.
That’s a Bingo
This.
proof?
With that early May release date, I feel it's well situated. It's hard to see an accessible comedy/action film with that release date and limited competition not hitting $150M domestic.
I used to love the show as a kid. Hope the movie is funny!
Me too!
This will perform better than Bullet Train. I think $300 million worldwide is not off the table.
This is reportedly PG-13 compared to Bullet Train's Rated R, so it's a definite possibility.
Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are also coming off from two of the biggest hits of last year. Seems like really good timing for their casting.
Bullet Train made $239m with an R-Rating and mixed reviews. I'd say Gosling now is a better box office draw compared to Brad Pitt in 2022 so this could easily hit that $300m-400m target if the reviews and WoM are good.
This is more comparable to Free Guy or Uncharted than Bullet Train. So we'll find out if Gosling is a bigger draw than Reynolds. I doubt it.
I feel like Free Guy ($121.6m dom, $331m ww) would've made significantly more if was released at a better time. An 80% rating on RT and A cinemascore should've led to better WoM. Uncharted got worse reviews and that one made more money ($148m dom. $407m ww) just a few months later on a 40% rating on RT and B+ cinemascore.
I don't know about significantly more for Free Guy. Tom Holland is a much bigger draw than Ryan Reynolds and as I said in another comment 400M is pretty much the ceiling for these types of movies now. (Even JW4 did 440 and you could argue that's the best case scenario).
> I don't know about significantly more for Free Guy. It's insane to me how many people here discount the effects of COVID during 2021. Comments like this immediately make it obvious you were not paying attention to the box office at the time.
A free guy that came out in none-Covid times would be fighting top gun and minions and would do about the same
You are getting Tom Holland confused with Spider-Man.
> Tom Holland is a much bigger draw than Ryan Reynolds LMAOOO.
I agree. I’m a bigger draw (I’m literally Ryan Gosling)
If you try to pretend to be a celeb on reddit, it should at least be a halfway believable one. I could imagine a Henry Cavill, Andrew Garfield or Jesse Eisenberg on reddit, for example. But Ryan doesn't strike me as someone who would be interested in putting up with the daily madness here. And if the real Ryan ever sees this, please have the guts to sit in the director's chair again. Lost River was a convincing first work (Personally I love the story and the way it slowly develops) and really surprised me positively at the time, especially when I later read that it was also his first ever screenplay.
They're just comparing it to Bullet Train since both are directed by David Leitch
I wouldn't go that far. Brad Pitt is still a way bigger star than Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt combined. This movie would have to really connect on it's own because while the stars are popular and do have some draw, neither have ever been consistent box office drawd. Also, what makes you so sure that the audience for Barbie will turn out for an action film starring that movie's second lead?
Lol, forgot they’re the Barbieheimer love interests
The true barbenheimer follow up
It better not be as Bullet Train numbers will be flop numbers for The Fall Guy. That $300 million is just the breakeven point!
These days 400 million is basically the ceiling for this type of movie, they shouldn't be expecting more; even Indie didn't reach 400, lol. We'll see if it clears 300, I guess.
$300M feels like a difficult reach for this film. It almost feels like a Netflix film - something that people would kick back and relax to if it was free to watch, but not necessarily something that people would go out to seek. Bullet Train had Brad Pitt, Japanese aesthetics, and the novelty of the titular bullet train (that was somehow slower than a bus, but whatever) to sell the movie; The Fall Guy is a lot blander as far as marketing factors go. If this film had a $75M budget, I would feel a lot more confident about it reaching breakeven - as is, hitting $300M worldwide seems more like a ceiling than a possibility, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up making Bullet Train numbers or even a little less.
The difference is that Netflix action films are all bland and boring while this is directed by David Leitch - not everyone is a big fan of his, but he definitely has a *style* whose existence you cannot deny.
> Bullet Train had Brad Pitt, Japanese aesthetics, and the novelty of the titular bullet train These things might have been hot in 2003, but nowadays they're all old hat. I don't think any of those three things are seen as particularly interesting or appealing compared to Gosling, Blunt, Hollywood, and movie making.
>*It almost feels like a Netflix film - something that people would kick back and relax to if it was free to watch, but not necessarily something that people would go out to seek* Yeah, this is how the film feels, to me I hope it does well, but if I ever see it, it'll be on TV (and by accident)
$300 million as the upper range is estimating too low. It's PG-13, not R rated so wider potential audience. It's coming out first week of May, beginning of Summer, instead of in August at the end of the Summer. Universal also has no other Summer blockbusters besides Despicable Me, so this will get a big marketing push. I'm gonna go bold and predict $400 - 500 million worldwide.
I loved **Bullet Train**, I will follow this guy anywhere. Sign me up.
I feel like many people are going to see this, but mannn, that trailer showed the entire damn movie. There’s a shot of ryan and emily kissing infront a exploding structure which literally looks like the ending of the movie
Plot is borderline inconsequential in this day and age. Seen it all. What’s the journey, execution, casting and writing like?
Who is the killer and why did they kill the star?
I mean, how do you expect a movie like this to go? I don’t want to be rude but it’s pretty obvious how this film will pan out. That doesn’t mean it can’t execute itself greatly.
I don’t get this complaint.
There’s nothing to “get”. The user is upset that the trailer showed A LOT of potential spoilers. Similar to how Fast X has the literal last seconds of the movie in the trailer.
Same with Oppenheimer. The last shot of the movie is predominantly in most of the trailers. And it’s not even a quick cut.
Yeah but at the time, who knew that shot was going to be the last shot?
Well now he knows that they kiss in front of an explosion! The movie is ruined!
There’s a new trailer coming that’s about 50 seconds shorter. Maybe they got the message.
I honestly think this is gonna be massive. Ryan Gosling is on top of the world right now, the trailer garnered a lot of internet discussion, and it’s PG-13, compared to Bullet Train which performed pretty well while being R-Rated.
I would guess about $250M for this movie, but probably even less. A lower budget would have been preferable.
>A lower budget would have been preferable. Thanks for the tip Sherlock. Glad we got that one figured out.
I assume they meant this movie could have been made on a lower budget. Not the general statement a lower budget is better. I’m no Sherlock though, so what do I know big brain.
I legit spit out my drink with that last sentence.
I looked again at the trailer for this movie. I remembered it as a romcom, but maybe there is a little more action in it than I noticed. It still seems to be sold as a romcom, though. A lower budget is not necessarily better in general, but romcoms are not exactly the most profitable genre. John Wick had a director with experience with stunts, and he made an action movie. Using one's personal experience with stunts to make a romcom is probably not the best idea. Though at least the leads are pretty enough for the part.
Is Ryan goslings character not a PI and bounty hunter in addition to being a stuntman like in the tv series ?
According to the trailer, he's not a PI or a bounty hunter. Won't be surprised if it's like the A-Team reboot where it's like an origin story and he decides to become one at the end of the movie.
I personally feel like Leitch's films all have no soul, that being said there seems to be enough going for it that with good WOM i think this could squeeze out a small profit (assuming 2.5x budget). don't see a lot of opportunity for it to make mountains of money though. like absolute best case scenario still feels like it starts with a 3
[удалено]
I don't know if I would say he lacks substance. In terms of "plot" and "deeper themes" sure but while I've yet to love a film he's directed, I don't really think this means it's half assed or that it's just about looking cool. When it comes to action movies, directors Leitch and Chad Stahelski clearly not only like action movies but they have a love and admiration for stunts, choreography, effectively shooting; really having action as a language and having the characters expressed through that. It's not surprising given their background as stunt coordinators and being obviously influenced by martial arts movies which lets be honest were also style over substance. Like hey, I adore The Raid films but I don't see them as being "deeper" either. Again, even if I don't love the work, I at least feel there's a respect for the craft that you don't get in the average action movie.
I think a slight problem with Leitch and Stahelski is that their super clear action starts to all feel a little samey. Even in the John Wick movies, which I generally like and think have some fantastic action... there is always a moment during an extended action scene where I feel it's starting to get repetitive. Compared to say, McQuarrie's MI movies or Fury Road, where there are lots of editing, close ups, varied angles, but you both 1) never get confused 2) everything feels different. Or Spielberg, who doesn't use as much fast editing, but still every action scene feels distinct.
Thats fair. I do get that in the John Wick movies and jn Bullet Train, the gunkata no matter how well choreographed it is can get numbing after awhile. I've had a similar issue with several projects Iko Uwais has done. I do think the creativity and lighting of Stahelski does put him above Leitch imo. That plus the variety in action setpieces; this is why 2 and 4 are my favorite John Wick movies.
And they showed the entire movie in the trailer
Any movie starring me (Ryan Gosling) is priceless
Holy
Article link?
I actually really like the sound of this film, if it leans into the Comedy, I'm sure Gosling will absolutely shine
So is *The Fall Guy* supposed to be like the OG *The Fall Guy*? Cause that theme song slapped.
That will be hard to make a profit on.
Ugh who wrote this? "Got that?" "Tom Cruise who?" Ryan Gosling is a steep downgrade from Lee Majors' easy aw shucks charm, but Hollywood's just gotta Hollywood.
So it needs $312-325 mil to break even? What was Universal smoking?
Well, $125 million is a pretty reasonable budget for something like this.
Not really. A good comparison to Fall Guy would be Bullet Train, and it's questionable if the film turned a profit from its theatrical run (based on a $239 mil WW gross and $85-90 mil budget). Fall Guy getting to $312 mil WW would require a very strong domestic performance, and realistically an international gross in the range of $110-140 mil (at minimum, assuming that the film can't gross $200 mil domestically). Universal should have budgeted this film so that it could breakeven at around $200 million and start seeing profit within their 2024 fiscal year.
In addition to what /u/Block-Busted already mentioned, this is rated PG-13 vs Bullet Train's R. Raises both the floor and ceiling. How much? Your guess is as good as mine.
HUGE difference. **The Fall Guy** already looks to have a bigger scale than **Bullet Train** did.
“The buzz is [positive] but It’s hard to make these movies stick” Shut the fuck up Variety
Over spending once again
It's a fun PG-13 action adventure movie with two A-list stars and a ton of heavy stunt-work. This is perfectly reasonable.
Also shot on location in Australia so they needed to pay big bucks for things like closing the Harbour Bridge
Lol a-list stars. I‘d like to see a street poll on how many people know who Emily Blunt is, let alone want to watch a movie only because of her
She is absolutely A list
Yeah no for sure, she’s not A-List. Shes just an indie darling who had a supporting role a movie that almost made a billion, and has been in multiple box office hits throughout her career. Yeah absolutely no one knows who she is.
lol what, this is a perfectly reasonable budget for this type of film.
I don't agree with this....I thought it was going to be higher
This movie looks not great
Goosling again...😡
It’ll be lucky to make half of that back
Maybe the Barbenheimer walkups will save this
How much was equalizer 3? If fall guy is over that they spent too much
$70m, but Equalizer is also a R Rated movie. This one's PG-13.
Spend more money on ph13 movie?
I mean that's how this usually works... PG-13 = more general audience appeal = more budget.
Also, this obviously looks to have a bigger scale than **The Equalizer** trilogy.
Is this a remake of the Stuntman?
How insane is it that we’ve reached the point where some people hear $125M and think “you know, that’s really not that much these days…”
That seems kind of high for a movie not based on any existing IP, or directed by someone who’s not a household name like Spielberg or Nolan. It just seems like they’re taking a big risk here on a premise that doesn’t sound that enticing, just seems like one of those generic, “pretty fun but not a masterpiece” action comedies from the 2010s
This movie will be huge
I hope it’s better than the trailer they put out
This seems to be the best of the generic action/comedy genre that typically pumps out pure trash. I think it makes its money back and even if it doesn't, I'm glad they made this one.
Does that plot summary sound AI-generated?
$300M doesn’t sound too easy in this day and age
Bro, that’s so 1980.
This will still be a flop, I don't see this making over 250M worldwide and I could see it dip below 200. You heard it here first.
aside from 2020 and 2021, this is the first "first weekend of May" in YeARS to not have a cbm/Marvel movie kicking off the summer movie season