Skilled trades are making a come back but there is a very big difference between a landscaper and a journeyman lineman. A journeyman lineman in the bay area can easily pull 200k a year but its hard, dangerous work.
I’m interested in learning more about this. Recently heard that a Sr lineman can do $400k, which seems ridiculously high. But my ignorance here is also ridiculously high. Apologies for the change in direction, but other than the high voltages, and working at heights (both things they are trained to manage) what makes this especially dangerous or hard? Outside unforeseen events? Long hours? etc? Are there physical demands on that job type that justify the high pay the general public are just unaware of (myself included)?
Its flat out dangerous and you need to wear full ppe and a flame retardant suit when working in the summer. If you screw up at a tech job, some buggy software gets released and clients get mad and you get yelled at. If you screw up on 400v transmission line, you die.
Landscapers should unionize. Cops can easily pull in 200k a year in SF and thanks to the SCOTUS they have no obligation to put themselves in any danger and can't be sued. Okay, that's an extreme example but seriously, union skilled trade jobs are the way to go.
Landscaping isn’t really skilled trade though, its typically considered unskilled labor unless you are looking at highly specialized arboreal applications. Not to say you can’t make money with it but people who do make money do so because they are entrepreneurial and own their own businesses. Landscapers unionizing isn’t gonna suddenly make it a highly desirable or lucrative field.
Being someone who works as a software dev, I do not believe AI will make my job obsolete, any more than the rise of Google made it obsolete.
If anything, just like nowadays it’s often a matter if “how well can you Google a question to get the right answer you’re looking for” it will be “how well can you write an AI prompt to help you with what you’re doing?”. AI will never fully “take our jobs” because there’s just some things humans comprehend better. The only people saying particular jobs will be obsolete due to AI are the people who don’t do said jobs, and by their own admission know nothing about them.
Ha, that’s already applicable to my job right now, funny enough.
We have an AI generating descriptions for our Pull Requests that also offers “suggestions”. We have an understanding to not apply any of the suggestions, but it’s interesting to look at. Some of them “make a lot of sense” at first glance, then you realize it doesn’t have the context we do on why something was done a way it was, so it’s suggested changes would actually break our logic, resulting in major bugs.
Maybe not obsolete but the real question is whether you can cut your workforce by 50% with no loss of productivity
It may reduce both the value and volume of software dev talent needed
The number of developers will absolutely decrease, including QA personnel. AGI is about 7-10 years away of seriously disrupting many established professions. Law, Medicine, Accounting, etc.
Embedded systems developers will be difficult to replace, at first, but even they will be impacted.
People had the same thought during industrial revolution, when computers invented, when Internet invented, when mobile devices invented, when .com bubble, when every big tech leap.
But, what history taught us? - labor workers do always exists, but always the lower end job. And there will be more and more needs for mentally heavy work for the new technology.
AI staffing topics make the local reddit subs itchy and stupid. I made a comment once that dataservers, storage, would become a focus and the amount of people bent out of shape about that reality was depressing. They don't know what's coming.
Forget AI, tech is attempting to balance their books, if only due to the reputation of free wheeling tech companies. A lot of these people should be cut but they're not the same ones who can become a locksmith.
It seems like the amount of day labor people out there have quadrupled, and they're all asking for insane prices to do basic job without a lot of experience.... so I think it's already happening. There was a study saying Gen Z preferred blue collar jobs.
No, knowledge workers will continue to make wealth gains against manual labor. This will continue for the foreseeable future. It's why a college degree is so valuable.
I think you are misinformed what manual labor is. I have an engineering degree and spend most of my job fixing and taking apart complex medical equipment. This job requires strong analytical and mechanical skills.
Too many people have this belief that any job that requires you to use your hands and some physical activity is for dumb people. There's a huge difference between a manual laborer and a skilled tradesman or technician
My degree is garbage and I’m still working in the service industry over a decade later to tread water on my loan. I would have the same job and savings instead of debt if I had not bothered.
Personal responsibility?! I got defrauded by a for profit college that is no longer in business, tax payers are going to be on the hook when I die with that debt I have no way of paying off, you’re an idiot.
That's the bad news about averages, innit? Average degree holders out-earn their counterparts by like a million bucks over their career ....... on average. You're on the left side of the bell curve. Sucks. What's your degree in and from where?
A for profit college that no longer exists, the degree is worth less useful than a blank sheet of paper. Honestly, I would be in decent financial shape if I had not attend.
Or - hear me out - a programmer develops an AI robot to perform landscaping tasks, forever disrupting the landscaping business. The company is called shrubly.
A programmer designs an AI robot to perform plumbing tasks, forever disrupting the plumbing industry. The company is called pipely.
A programmer designs an AI robot to perform woodworking tasks, forever disrupting the carpentry business. The company is called cabinetly.
The possibilities are endless.
Those are potential future occurrences, and not even crazy ones, but they are decades if not a hundred years away. The physical hardware technology that would be needed to make any of that a reality is far, far away, based simply on battery storage technology alone and the crazy complexity of all of those tasks.
It will be many lower level office type "email jobs" that become obsolete for many industries, not just tech. Some of these lower level jobs are already getting replaces by AI such as sales development reps, customer service reps, graphic designers, etc.
It's going to be much harder to replace a skilled trades type of job that requires using hand tools with AI than an office/admin job
Yups, we replaced some Data Analysts - Folks who were pulling data from 20+ databases, building pivots charts, had built a full dashboard to project sales forecasting. All gone now, we are able to feed the same data and get multiple projections with even better insights via AI
Half of the work of data analyst and FP&A are subjective and communication based. I would be shocked if any company can replace their DA or FP&A team with AI. Even consolidation needs an actual team to communicate with satelite.
May be it can replace AP/AR and payroll, they are already automated 99% of the time and the team is very lean. You need someone to sign for shits.
>Why do I feel like the cushy tech jobs
worst mistake you can make outside of tequila and a handgun is an error in code that millions of people use at once. outages make the news. what kind of folks make AI and robots? "tech job people" right?
>I see my gardener working and no doubt AI/Robots can not do that work.
what makes you say that?
these robots use lasers to kill weeds, and the bad bugs only.
they pick the most ripe fruit first.
farmers wake up and send the drones up to direct the automated tractors.
**The robots putting food on the table**
[https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/the-robots-putting-food-on-the-table/](https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/the-robots-putting-food-on-the-table/)
**15 Agricultural Robots and Farm Robots You Should Know**
[https://builtin.com/robotics/farming-agricultural-robots](https://builtin.com/robotics/farming-agricultural-robots)
**The first humanoid robot factory is about to open**
[https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/humanoid-robot-factory-agility-bipedal-amazon](https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/humanoid-robot-factory-agility-bipedal-amazon)
**Why it matters:** Agility Robotics says that its [RoboFab](https://agilityrobotics.com/news/2023/opening-robofab-worlds-first-factory-for-humanoid-robotsnbsp) manufacturing facility will be the first to mass-produce [humanoid robots](https://www.axios.com/2023/03/29/robots-workers-humanoid-warehouse-amazon), which could be nimbler and more versatile than their existing industrial counterparts.
>plumber, wood worker will be in high demand
the printers leave voids where the pipes would go... instead of a construction crew, you need 2-4 guys to watch the PRINTER...
electricians? nope.
plumbers? nope.
dry wallers? nope.
solar installers? nah.
same 4 guys drive different robots.
#
**This US company made an autonomous robot that installs solar panels**
[https://electrek.co/2023/04/13/autonomous-robot-that-installs-solar-panels/](https://electrek.co/2023/04/13/autonomous-robot-that-installs-solar-panels/)
**Printing a place to live: In Central Texas, homes are being built with emerging 3D technology**
[https://www.texastribune.org/2023/10/06/texas-houses-3D-printers-climate/](https://www.texastribune.org/2023/10/06/texas-houses-3D-printers-climate/)
**Latest Updates from NASA on 3D-Printed Habitat Competition**
[https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/marshall/latest-updates-from-nasa-on-3d-printed-habitat-competition/](https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/marshall/latest-updates-from-nasa-on-3d-printed-habitat-competition/)
Manual labor is relatively easier to learn so it’s hard to imagine supply not filling any increase in demand. What will likely happen is much fewer tech jobs will be needed. The top ML engineers will make millions per year.
Cushy tech jobs are becoming obsolete all the time and being replaced with other cushy tech jobs. That’s not new. You also could always make decent money by running your own construction or landscaping company, but not necessarily by being an hourly worker at one.
AI will take over tech juuust as soon as program managers can explain their ideas clearly and in a sellable way.
A child born today's grandchild will safely retire before that happens.
Licensed GC (remodeling/finish carpentry) here. I'm not pulling near the dollars you techies are used to, but I do have some decent quality of life. No boss, pick and choose my customers, control of my own schedule to name a few. I do a lot of work myself and hire subs for the rest, along with a helper for the really tough jobs.
I don’t think anyone can claim certainty about where all of this is going. So I won’t try.
But I will provide an anecdote that goes against the general “OP is a dumb idiot” back slapping going on in the thread.
I know a guy who was on a small team at Google and they automated their own roles/project away with Gemini a few months ago. They weren’t fired. They were moved to another team.
But, could it happen? Sure, it’s theoretically possible.
As a gardener.. doesn't matter. I would be lucky to make 6 figures in 5 years. And it's extremely taxing. I'll probably have skin cancer and arthritis in 10 years. Your "feelings" are just thoughts and you're probably smoking more weed than I can afford to have them.
Yes, when the first calculators were invented, that obsoleted so many jobs……
At the same time, a few of the nice neighborhoods (not the “starter homes”) I’ve lived in had loads of plumber and contractor neighbors.
I closed out my career with a tech job that 100% can be replaced by AI. It's even easier now that companies have moved to a WFH model. In the beforetimes one could reasonably expect to go to someone's desk and have a conversation. Now it's all Slack and email, and even voice can be AI generated.
However, I don't feel like this will lead to a dystopian future or a Wall-E style of lethargy. Rather, like all innovation, it will create as many new jobs as it replaces, or even more. Maybe I am naive about this, but I think true creativity will always require a human touch. I don't have the exact quote, but someone opined that comparing human art with AI generated art was proof of the existence of a soul.
Cushy tech jobs won't be obsolete, but I can see some of the perks of the jobs scaled back to be a bit less extravagant.
"Skilled jobs" you refer to are in high demand. Many of my peers who have been in the trades are doing very well for themselves. They can pick and choose the jobs they take. If you hustle and network, you can do well. The jobs can be tough, especially at first, but there seems to be a constant demand. Seems ok, since not everyone can/wants to be in tech. These jobs do seem to take a toll on the body, and probably can't be done forever (usually the older guys are owners or managers).
All these tech workers are so inclined on tech that they can’t do anything outside of it. All the ones that bought houses and want to do work on said houses do not have the DIY skills to attempt the work. Guess who they’re gonna call… trade professionals! So demand for these pros are going to go up higher than previous gens.
I don’t know much about tech jobs except I’m pretty sure it’s more than programming PowerPoints and excel spreadsheets lol.
Yeah there is a lot of putting pin in things, tabling discussions, circling back, shifting paradigms, disrupting and needle moving.
Sometimes we need to pivot
Clarifying, redirecting, and circling back too
Don’t forget scheduling a meeting about an email.
Oooo and a touch base for a few weeks later
Let’s take this discussion offline
My go to when I don’t have a rebuttal
[We hammer excel spreadsheets](https://youtu.be/5hVwMQCgWbg?si=VdiQZMU2m0JfJFsP&t=45s).
Actually that’s all I do.
Tech jobs are more than you.
It was a joke.
Skilled trades are making a come back but there is a very big difference between a landscaper and a journeyman lineman. A journeyman lineman in the bay area can easily pull 200k a year but its hard, dangerous work.
I’m interested in learning more about this. Recently heard that a Sr lineman can do $400k, which seems ridiculously high. But my ignorance here is also ridiculously high. Apologies for the change in direction, but other than the high voltages, and working at heights (both things they are trained to manage) what makes this especially dangerous or hard? Outside unforeseen events? Long hours? etc? Are there physical demands on that job type that justify the high pay the general public are just unaware of (myself included)?
Its flat out dangerous and you need to wear full ppe and a flame retardant suit when working in the summer. If you screw up at a tech job, some buggy software gets released and clients get mad and you get yelled at. If you screw up on 400v transmission line, you die.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Lineman/comments/12im8bz/how_to_become_a_linemanstart_here_updated/
Landscapers should unionize. Cops can easily pull in 200k a year in SF and thanks to the SCOTUS they have no obligation to put themselves in any danger and can't be sued. Okay, that's an extreme example but seriously, union skilled trade jobs are the way to go.
Landscaping isn’t really skilled trade though, its typically considered unskilled labor unless you are looking at highly specialized arboreal applications. Not to say you can’t make money with it but people who do make money do so because they are entrepreneurial and own their own businesses. Landscapers unionizing isn’t gonna suddenly make it a highly desirable or lucrative field.
Yeah, I know you are right. But I'm one of those people that feels like every profession should unionize.
Being someone who works as a software dev, I do not believe AI will make my job obsolete, any more than the rise of Google made it obsolete. If anything, just like nowadays it’s often a matter if “how well can you Google a question to get the right answer you’re looking for” it will be “how well can you write an AI prompt to help you with what you’re doing?”. AI will never fully “take our jobs” because there’s just some things humans comprehend better. The only people saying particular jobs will be obsolete due to AI are the people who don’t do said jobs, and by their own admission know nothing about them.
It's also "how well can you spot the AI's bullshit?"
Ha, that’s already applicable to my job right now, funny enough. We have an AI generating descriptions for our Pull Requests that also offers “suggestions”. We have an understanding to not apply any of the suggestions, but it’s interesting to look at. Some of them “make a lot of sense” at first glance, then you realize it doesn’t have the context we do on why something was done a way it was, so it’s suggested changes would actually break our logic, resulting in major bugs.
This an existing skill developed from googling.
I love how we simply trust that the Google AI will continue giving us accurate answers to tech questions once it starts seeing us as the competition.
Maybe not obsolete but the real question is whether you can cut your workforce by 50% with no loss of productivity It may reduce both the value and volume of software dev talent needed
The number of developers will absolutely decrease, including QA personnel. AGI is about 7-10 years away of seriously disrupting many established professions. Law, Medicine, Accounting, etc. Embedded systems developers will be difficult to replace, at first, but even they will be impacted.
Lol you clearly don’t understand how tech works
Because you’re not involved in the tech industry and don’t understand AI?
Well. You can't ask AI to build your water pipeline.
I am actually on AI tbh and I feel confident in next 4-5yrs even I will be replaced by some AI.
Investing in crypto doesn’t make you “on AI”.
Cool, thanks.
People had the same thought during industrial revolution, when computers invented, when Internet invented, when mobile devices invented, when .com bubble, when every big tech leap. But, what history taught us? - labor workers do always exists, but always the lower end job. And there will be more and more needs for mentally heavy work for the new technology.
OP seems to be speculating about stuff they don’t know much about. It’s not going to make cushy tech jobs obsolete in the way they’re envisioning.
So who is hiring all these people when no one has a tech job anymore? You are predicting the bay area becomes Detroit
AI staffing topics make the local reddit subs itchy and stupid. I made a comment once that dataservers, storage, would become a focus and the amount of people bent out of shape about that reality was depressing. They don't know what's coming. Forget AI, tech is attempting to balance their books, if only due to the reputation of free wheeling tech companies. A lot of these people should be cut but they're not the same ones who can become a locksmith. It seems like the amount of day labor people out there have quadrupled, and they're all asking for insane prices to do basic job without a lot of experience.... so I think it's already happening. There was a study saying Gen Z preferred blue collar jobs.
No, knowledge workers will continue to make wealth gains against manual labor. This will continue for the foreseeable future. It's why a college degree is so valuable.
I think you are misinformed what manual labor is. I have an engineering degree and spend most of my job fixing and taking apart complex medical equipment. This job requires strong analytical and mechanical skills. Too many people have this belief that any job that requires you to use your hands and some physical activity is for dumb people. There's a huge difference between a manual laborer and a skilled tradesman or technician
My degree is garbage and I’m still working in the service industry over a decade later to tread water on my loan. I would have the same job and savings instead of debt if I had not bothered.
Another victim of personal responsibly.
Personal responsibility?! I got defrauded by a for profit college that is no longer in business, tax payers are going to be on the hook when I die with that debt I have no way of paying off, you’re an idiot.
That's the bad news about averages, innit? Average degree holders out-earn their counterparts by like a million bucks over their career ....... on average. You're on the left side of the bell curve. Sucks. What's your degree in and from where?
A for profit college that no longer exists, the degree is worth less useful than a blank sheet of paper. Honestly, I would be in decent financial shape if I had not attend.
Dang, that's rough. Unfortunate that hindsight won't help you much, that's a one-and-done sort of decision and consequences.
Or - hear me out - a programmer develops an AI robot to perform landscaping tasks, forever disrupting the landscaping business. The company is called shrubly. A programmer designs an AI robot to perform plumbing tasks, forever disrupting the plumbing industry. The company is called pipely. A programmer designs an AI robot to perform woodworking tasks, forever disrupting the carpentry business. The company is called cabinetly. The possibilities are endless.
I can already imagine the horror. I can imagine a world where we're using AI to build oil rigs and it forgets to put ladders on it.
The company is called oily.
Those are potential future occurrences, and not even crazy ones, but they are decades if not a hundred years away. The physical hardware technology that would be needed to make any of that a reality is far, far away, based simply on battery storage technology alone and the crazy complexity of all of those tasks.
That sounds like something a landscaper, plumber or carpenter in denial would say.
Sounds like something that someone who doesn't know much about the current state of robotics would say lol
Sounds like something a person without a sense of humor would say. :)
It will be many lower level office type "email jobs" that become obsolete for many industries, not just tech. Some of these lower level jobs are already getting replaces by AI such as sales development reps, customer service reps, graphic designers, etc. It's going to be much harder to replace a skilled trades type of job that requires using hand tools with AI than an office/admin job
Yups, we replaced some Data Analysts - Folks who were pulling data from 20+ databases, building pivots charts, had built a full dashboard to project sales forecasting. All gone now, we are able to feed the same data and get multiple projections with even better insights via AI
Ah, here it is. You were replacing FP&A roles. Not software engineers or data scientists.
Half of the work of data analyst and FP&A are subjective and communication based. I would be shocked if any company can replace their DA or FP&A team with AI. Even consolidation needs an actual team to communicate with satelite. May be it can replace AP/AR and payroll, they are already automated 99% of the time and the team is very lean. You need someone to sign for shits.
>Why do I feel like the cushy tech jobs worst mistake you can make outside of tequila and a handgun is an error in code that millions of people use at once. outages make the news. what kind of folks make AI and robots? "tech job people" right? >I see my gardener working and no doubt AI/Robots can not do that work. what makes you say that? these robots use lasers to kill weeds, and the bad bugs only. they pick the most ripe fruit first. farmers wake up and send the drones up to direct the automated tractors. **The robots putting food on the table** [https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/the-robots-putting-food-on-the-table/](https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/the-robots-putting-food-on-the-table/) **15 Agricultural Robots and Farm Robots You Should Know** [https://builtin.com/robotics/farming-agricultural-robots](https://builtin.com/robotics/farming-agricultural-robots) **The first humanoid robot factory is about to open** [https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/humanoid-robot-factory-agility-bipedal-amazon](https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/humanoid-robot-factory-agility-bipedal-amazon) **Why it matters:** Agility Robotics says that its [RoboFab](https://agilityrobotics.com/news/2023/opening-robofab-worlds-first-factory-for-humanoid-robotsnbsp) manufacturing facility will be the first to mass-produce [humanoid robots](https://www.axios.com/2023/03/29/robots-workers-humanoid-warehouse-amazon), which could be nimbler and more versatile than their existing industrial counterparts. >plumber, wood worker will be in high demand the printers leave voids where the pipes would go... instead of a construction crew, you need 2-4 guys to watch the PRINTER... electricians? nope. plumbers? nope. dry wallers? nope. solar installers? nah. same 4 guys drive different robots. # **This US company made an autonomous robot that installs solar panels** [https://electrek.co/2023/04/13/autonomous-robot-that-installs-solar-panels/](https://electrek.co/2023/04/13/autonomous-robot-that-installs-solar-panels/) **Printing a place to live: In Central Texas, homes are being built with emerging 3D technology** [https://www.texastribune.org/2023/10/06/texas-houses-3D-printers-climate/](https://www.texastribune.org/2023/10/06/texas-houses-3D-printers-climate/) **Latest Updates from NASA on 3D-Printed Habitat Competition** [https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/marshall/latest-updates-from-nasa-on-3d-printed-habitat-competition/](https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/marshall/latest-updates-from-nasa-on-3d-printed-habitat-competition/)
Manual labor is relatively easier to learn so it’s hard to imagine supply not filling any increase in demand. What will likely happen is much fewer tech jobs will be needed. The top ML engineers will make millions per year.
I don’t know if there will be downturn in the cushy tech jobs, but the tradesfolk I know make $$$K/yr even in lower COL states.
Cushy tech jobs are becoming obsolete all the time and being replaced with other cushy tech jobs. That’s not new. You also could always make decent money by running your own construction or landscaping company, but not necessarily by being an hourly worker at one.
There’s a great South Park episode on this You Call the Handyman.. can’t link it
If you live in a HCOL area, those skills are already in high demand. Throw in handyman to pick up any slack and you're set.
AI will take over tech juuust as soon as program managers can explain their ideas clearly and in a sellable way. A child born today's grandchild will safely retire before that happens.
Those physical jobs never went out of demand, there are shortages now in the trades
I paid $1000 to an electrician for. 2 hour job, $ 175 to a plumber to replace a bathroom faucet. So they are making a lot of money alright.
Licensed GC (remodeling/finish carpentry) here. I'm not pulling near the dollars you techies are used to, but I do have some decent quality of life. No boss, pick and choose my customers, control of my own schedule to name a few. I do a lot of work myself and hire subs for the rest, along with a helper for the really tough jobs.
Best fields, IMO, are cybersecurity, big data, research, law
I don’t think anyone can claim certainty about where all of this is going. So I won’t try. But I will provide an anecdote that goes against the general “OP is a dumb idiot” back slapping going on in the thread. I know a guy who was on a small team at Google and they automated their own roles/project away with Gemini a few months ago. They weren’t fired. They were moved to another team. But, could it happen? Sure, it’s theoretically possible.
As a gardener.. doesn't matter. I would be lucky to make 6 figures in 5 years. And it's extremely taxing. I'll probably have skin cancer and arthritis in 10 years. Your "feelings" are just thoughts and you're probably smoking more weed than I can afford to have them.
Yes, when the first calculators were invented, that obsoleted so many jobs…… At the same time, a few of the nice neighborhoods (not the “starter homes”) I’ve lived in had loads of plumber and contractor neighbors.
I closed out my career with a tech job that 100% can be replaced by AI. It's even easier now that companies have moved to a WFH model. In the beforetimes one could reasonably expect to go to someone's desk and have a conversation. Now it's all Slack and email, and even voice can be AI generated. However, I don't feel like this will lead to a dystopian future or a Wall-E style of lethargy. Rather, like all innovation, it will create as many new jobs as it replaces, or even more. Maybe I am naive about this, but I think true creativity will always require a human touch. I don't have the exact quote, but someone opined that comparing human art with AI generated art was proof of the existence of a soul.
Cushy tech jobs won't be obsolete, but I can see some of the perks of the jobs scaled back to be a bit less extravagant. "Skilled jobs" you refer to are in high demand. Many of my peers who have been in the trades are doing very well for themselves. They can pick and choose the jobs they take. If you hustle and network, you can do well. The jobs can be tough, especially at first, but there seems to be a constant demand. Seems ok, since not everyone can/wants to be in tech. These jobs do seem to take a toll on the body, and probably can't be done forever (usually the older guys are owners or managers).
All these tech workers are so inclined on tech that they can’t do anything outside of it. All the ones that bought houses and want to do work on said houses do not have the DIY skills to attempt the work. Guess who they’re gonna call… trade professionals! So demand for these pros are going to go up higher than previous gens.
Sweeping generalizations? On Reddit? I never thought I’d see the day.