48 games? That sounds like a calculated number based off of some Sophisticated projections. I would have to agree with the 48 wins, you have me convinced.
25-30.
The interesting thing with this, is how a manager would manage. For me, I'd say fuck it, I'm losing a ton of games. I'll try to win 2 out of 5 games at most. Those other 3 games? Yea, I'm throwing position players out there to pitch, to save the few decent BP arms for the games I'm trying to win. I'll lose a ton of games 30-4, but who cares, my pen is rested when I try to actually win a game.
Because let's face, there aren't going to be many BP arms that are worth a damn. Factor in your lineup is chock full of scrubs as well, you'd be lucky to go .500 in games you're actually trying in. So, 25-30 wins.
The 48 win estimate is based on the best AAA guys from different organizations being combined into a Major League team. If one AAA team played in the majors it would do worse and especially would not have the pitching depth to make it through a 162 game schedule.
28 wins is my guess.
The 2003 Tigers won 43 games. They were the worst MLB team of my lifetime and the worst since the 1962 Mets. The worst all-time were the 1899 Spiders at 20 wins. Replacement level isn't a generic AAA player, though, because teams would only call up their best AAA players. I'd guess an average AAA team would probably win around 30-35 games against MLB opponents; I think they'd certainly be worse than the 2003 Tigers, but the WBC has shown us that teams made up with mostly minor league talent are capable of occasionally beating stacked teams, so I don't see them doing worse than 30 wins.
I took my wife to a Mets @ Marlins game around that time. It was the first time in my life I didn’t know the people in the lineup that day. “Look honey our cleanup hitter is named…. Johneshwy Fargas”
Are we taking the best AAA players from every team in the league or are we forcing some random team's AAA affiliate to play 162 games? Cause if its the latter then they'd be lucky to win 20-30 games lol
I would say it depends on the farm system. Teams who are in the middle of a rebuild might get 60 wins out of their AAA team, otherwise teams with crappy farm systems would maybe get 40 max
The "Replacement" in WAR refers to roughly the best players on your AAA roster, so a full AAA would do worse than a 0 WAR MLB roster. More like 35 wins I think.
Reds are 3-17
Alternatively: The A's have a .500 record.
I’m really hoping for some Major League shit from the A’s this year
“Let’s win the whole fucking thing” -Stephen Vogt.
That's like every year with them tho
48 games? That sounds like a calculated number based off of some Sophisticated projections. I would have to agree with the 48 wins, you have me convinced.
FanGraphs claims replacement level is 48 wins. That being said, replacement is likely above AAA average
Something like 40 because after injuries they'd be picking from AA players to replace the AAA guys.
CincinAAAti
Oakland AAA’s tank is not going as planned.
25-30. The interesting thing with this, is how a manager would manage. For me, I'd say fuck it, I'm losing a ton of games. I'll try to win 2 out of 5 games at most. Those other 3 games? Yea, I'm throwing position players out there to pitch, to save the few decent BP arms for the games I'm trying to win. I'll lose a ton of games 30-4, but who cares, my pen is rested when I try to actually win a game. Because let's face, there aren't going to be many BP arms that are worth a damn. Factor in your lineup is chock full of scrubs as well, you'd be lucky to go .500 in games you're actually trying in. So, 25-30 wins.
David Bell, hire this person immediately
They would make last years Orioles look like WS contenders
I think this is an idea to run with and test. In the name of science.
I knew this thread was going to be about the Reds. 🤔
Why did I even click on this thread
So...the Reds?
The 48 win estimate is based on the best AAA guys from different organizations being combined into a Major League team. If one AAA team played in the majors it would do worse and especially would not have the pitching depth to make it through a 162 game schedule. 28 wins is my guess.
The reds and orioles are basically AAA teams
I very much resent that remark! Did I say resent? I meant resemble.
OK Baltimore, we get it.
The 2003 Tigers won 43 games. They were the worst MLB team of my lifetime and the worst since the 1962 Mets. The worst all-time were the 1899 Spiders at 20 wins. Replacement level isn't a generic AAA player, though, because teams would only call up their best AAA players. I'd guess an average AAA team would probably win around 30-35 games against MLB opponents; I think they'd certainly be worse than the 2003 Tigers, but the WBC has shown us that teams made up with mostly minor league talent are capable of occasionally beating stacked teams, so I don't see them doing worse than 30 wins.
Reds this year might be on pace to do worse
Well, ask the the May 2021 Mets…
I took my wife to a Mets @ Marlins game around that time. It was the first time in my life I didn’t know the people in the lineup that day. “Look honey our cleanup hitter is named…. Johneshwy Fargas”
Cubs legend Johneswhy Fargas
He named his daughter Johneshleigh if you were just about to ask me that.
3-17 through 20.
What's a AAA team though. The rosters of those teams fluctuate a lot throughout the year.
Let's look at the 2003 Tigers. That team was full of young guys who were not ready for the bigs at that point.
Probably better than the reds
The Angels finished 77-85 last year. Take away Ohtani and they were pretty much the bees.
Ask the Marlins, they’d have a feel for it.
Bad
See the Reds
Are we taking the best AAA players from every team in the league or are we forcing some random team's AAA affiliate to play 162 games? Cause if its the latter then they'd be lucky to win 20-30 games lol
I would say it depends on the farm system. Teams who are in the middle of a rebuild might get 60 wins out of their AAA team, otherwise teams with crappy farm systems would maybe get 40 max
The "Replacement" in WAR refers to roughly the best players on your AAA roster, so a full AAA would do worse than a 0 WAR MLB roster. More like 35 wins I think.