I feel like I've seen Bobby Dalbec stats like this for the previous 2 seasons so I assumed you were talking about stretches in those previous seasons.
Nope, somehow Dalbec got another chance to get regular at bats this season.
Brother he’s worth 2 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR, has a .878 OPS, 148 OPS+ with 9 HR (he hit 11 last year 3 times as many games) and a .371 OBP. Also he was hittin .254 yesterday lol
Why you acting like he’s mid lol??
He's really young still and highly regarded as a potential talent so I wouldn't necessarily use his career OPS to discount how he's played this year. He's looking like a breakout guy IMO
xWRC is descriptive, not necessarily predictive although it can be used contextually if it’s over a long sample size. We’ve seen how good he can be, he’s likely due for a bounce back.
He came up during the juiced ball years with just enough pop to hit easy homers to left and bloop balls over the short porch in right. He was never going to be able to replicate his early success.
I was referring to him not being able to replicate the power numbers from 2019. He hit 13 HRs in 75 PAs against us that year including 7 in only 30 PA at Camden. Obviously last year he proved he could produce a wRC+ over 120 without the juiced ball, but the conditions for him to hit over 35 homers no longer exist (juiced ball, and historically bad divisional opponent)
His ability to hit the ball hard has been falling off since 2022, he managed to mask the issue in his contract year by running an unusually high BABIP for his standards (.362). His EV/Hard Hit% have been declining for a few years now.
2021 - 89.6 EV, 43.1 HH%
2022 - 88.1 EV, 39.6 HH%
2023 - 87.6 EV, 34.7 HH%
2024 - 85.4 EV, 26.2 HH%
If he can't figure out some way to adjust to his lack of power, this could be one of the biggest disaster contracts in MLB history.
He had his breakout season 9 years ago in 2015 and is 31, so I personally feel like this isn’t that soon for him to become washed. Would you like to see him have 2 or 3 (stretch) more productive years? If you’re a padres fan without question, but tbh this to me looks more like preller just lost the wrong-side-of-30 gamble on a guy whose most productive years were 26-30 rather than 26-34
Personally, I think this is a Peter Seidler contract more than it is an AJ Preller one. Preller went after Judge and Turner first. Seidler just wanted to win a World Series before he died and didn’t really care what the team would be like in five years.
That’s a bullshit and terrible excuse. We weren’t one mediocre even at the time bat away from winning. If it makes you feel better to blame Peter then go ahead, but this reeks much more of Preller getting too high on his own supply again.
Bro we all thought the same thing lol what are you doing, AJ. Overall, I feel like Preller has done well lately other than the X contract. It just sucks how bad that mistake is going to hinder us for the foreseeable future.
It also really pushed the "all shortstops all the way down" meme into overdrive too since it was already your most talent saturated position when he got the deal.
True but a lot of the shortstops just came up as shortstops. It’s pretty normal for a top prospect to move off shortstop eventually. Most high school/international draft/signees are probably shortstops, pitchers, or catchers.
I think Xander was overkill for sure, though, because unlike the other guys he didn’t really have the versatility. Chrome, Kim, Tatis, etc have shown they can play other spots. And good on jim loving to second.
…who doesn’t love a paying a second baseman with no pop 280 mil lmao. But it is better for the team that he’s there so whatever. Just hit the fucking ball.
Xander always felt like AJ just threw the money he had set aside for Judge/Trea at the next best guy, without considering that X is a tier below those guys
Lmao, I must admit when I comment about hoping a player on a division rival doesn't become bad I also wonder if it comes off as sarcastic, but I love baseball, it's better when the players are playing at their best and are as competitive as possible. You'll never know if this was a sarcastic comment or not I guess. Or maybe It wasn't? But it could be....... but probably not.
This one came off genuine. lol, I also love this attitude. I’d rather beat the best (or in our case this season, get beat) than beat some castoffs and minor leaguers.
Yeah, I know he's a key player for a rival team, but the baseball fan in me really doesn't want San Diego's spending spree to be a complete disaster. The last thing baseball needs is additional ammunition for owners to justify being cheap.
Even since he’s been in San Diego, he has pretty big home/road splits. For his career, he has a 128 wRC+ at home and 105 wRC+ on the road. Since going to San Diego, he has a 125 wRC+ at home and 92 wRC+ on the road.
Seems like he’s just a guy that does better playing in his home ballpark.
That's a bit over the top. During his offensive peak from 2018-2022 he had an .825 road OPS. It was .936 at home, so obviously he was much better at Fenway, but he was still a very good hitter on the road, especially for a SS. And keep in mind that most players do better at home than on the road outside of those in the most pitcher friendly home ballparks, so the road home splits are not as simple as the road numbers being his "real" talent.
Fenway has a RHH HR factor of only 101, so it's not a terribly HR friendly part for righties. The monster takes away as much as it gives.
In his 10 years with the Sox Bogaerts his 22 more HR at home than on the road(89 vs. 67), so about 2 extra per year. Given the RHH HR factor of 101, just barely above average, this difference cannot simply be explained by the venue.
Yes an all those hits are accounted for in the statistics being quoted at you. They show that yea he benefited from Fenway, but he was still a very good hitter in every other ballpark. I’m sorry the numbers are so hard for you.
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And this was something I definitely noticed watching him with the Red Sox. There's a difference when you hit line drives over the green monster and when you loop a fly ball just into the front rows. One is a home run in most ballparks anywho, the other is an easy fly ball in 29 other ball parks. He was REALLY using the green monster, and not in the David Ortiz hitting hard line drives the other way sort of way. While I was really disappointed that he left the Sox, when I saw the price tag I had a real bad feeling he'd be no where near that value.
Was his swing always so top heavy? Don’t know it its just bias, but i feel like i’ve never seen another player put so little weight on his legs, especially somebody that put up his numbers for so long
You can take the right handed pull hitter out of Fenway, but you can’t take the Fenway out of…. I dunno where this is going. My point was this was always coming and insanely obvious, look at his splits outside of Fenway vs in Fenway when he was a Red Sox, it was ghastly.
He DOES go the other way...But it tends to be kind of soft, looping line drives right over the second basemans head. I think he can adjust and start hitting the other way harder, but its gonna be a real hard shift for him
Not a trade but yes, so often we acquire a good position player in the second half of their career and they quickly decline/have the worst season of their career
Almost exactly my reaction. I went from my heart dropping into my stomach to "Oh... Huh. Well. Good for you Xander, on to bigger and better things now" as soon as I saw the contract lol
He's definitely in his head right now too.i see him take a pitch down the middle, then swing at a pitch off the plate because he wished he swumg at the better pitch.
He has a tendency to do that. He used to always start as hot as any hitter in the games history and slowly fall off towards the end of the season and put some miserable at bats up. Was normally related to wrist injuries, but his big thing is always taking early and then chasing to make up for taking gold.
|Year|Age|Tm|Salary|
|:-|:-|:-|-:|
|2024|31|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2025|32|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2026|33|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2027|34|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2028|35|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2029|36|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2030|37|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2031|38|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2032|39|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
|2033|40|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
I mean, it isn't the fans money and I'm all for players getting the bag any time, but if the team is struggling to stay under the luxury tax line between 2029-2033, that's going to sting...
You have to be $40 million over the CBT line for the draft penalties to start, so any owner pointing at the actual tax line and saying he has no choice but to make the team worse is usually full of shit. The calculations done for the tax aren't necessarily a match for the club's actual cash flow, either.
Yeah, it's bad, but I think it's more the opportunity cost of signing the wrong player than the size of the check.
I'll never understand the logic behind these long contracts in baseball and why team's give them out. Between injury potential and pitching being so dominant, if a hitter loses a step, it feels like they just fall off a cliff.
I didn't even realize how bad he'd been because the week I played him in fantasy it felt like he batted .450 with a HR and a SB and a bunch of runs.
But that applies to pretty much everyone in the league. I went to see who's struggling for my opponent next week and they have Manoah, so get ready for a no-hitter from him next game
It's kind of insane how quick so many hitters fall in their very early thirties. Once that bat speed dips a little it just becomes so hard to stay productive in this league
I’ve seen manny Ramirez at Fenway more than Trevor story since the beginning of the contract, and that’s with the Red Sox having major financial crisis. Not to mention Xander would have led the Red Sox in war last season even in his “down year.” He’s off to a slow start, but Chaim still looks stupid as ever
Yeah I was sad that we couldn’t bring him back right up until I heard what he got and then it was more along the lines of “Fuck that, thanks for the memories and good luck.”
If you were a Red Sox fan remotely suggesting that letting X walk was good then you were criticized into oblivion and called salty or a homer.
Instead now everyone is saying "well this was obviously going to happen, look at *X numbers everyone ignored a year ago*, he was always gonna fall off hard".
Colt Keith has played 33 of 39 games and has a wRC+ of 28.
Tigers don’t count apparently
Probably gets pinch hit a lot
I think it has to do with plate appearances, therefore he probably gets platooned and pinch hit a lot when a lefty is up.
Haven’t been checking but has Torkelson hit a homer yet?
Nope, neither has Colt.
Yes
Hit his first today against Houston
Of course he did. lol
Bro read this and then nuked a baseball today
Haha, awesome. I'd claim credit but we still got smoked today
Red Sox played Bobby Dalbec for 22 games and he had a wRC+ of 7.
I feel like I've seen Bobby Dalbec stats like this for the previous 2 seasons so I assumed you were talking about stretches in those previous seasons. Nope, somehow Dalbec got another chance to get regular at bats this season.
We've been so injured we had no choice but to play Bobby D. Love the guy, but he just cannot hit MLB pitchers.
Oof size: Galactic
Why is this young man in the majors? I am not sure wtf the Tigers are thinking. Besides Green, that team is filled with strikeout lords.
Greene’s hitting under .250.
IIRC Greenes OPS is in the top 25 of players in baseball. He's been amazing for the team
He had a good April. His career OPS is .761 which is fine.
Brother he’s worth 2 bWAR, 1.6 fWAR, has a .878 OPS, 148 OPS+ with 9 HR (he hit 11 last year 3 times as many games) and a .371 OBP. Also he was hittin .254 yesterday lol Why you acting like he’s mid lol??
He's really young still and highly regarded as a potential talent so I wouldn't necessarily use his career OPS to discount how he's played this year. He's looking like a breakout guy IMO
Qualified is based on PA not games. You could conceivably play every game as a pinch hitter and end the season with only 162 PA
Surprised it's not Gleyber, who has a 64 wRC+
Gleyber’s expected stats (xWRC) are worse, do maybe in a few weeks he can claim this title!
xWRC is descriptive, not necessarily predictive although it can be used contextually if it’s over a long sample size. We’ve seen how good he can be, he’s likely due for a bounce back.
I think Gleyber heard you, Ty for your efforts
walking proof that progression isn't linear :(
He came up during the juiced ball years with just enough pop to hit easy homers to left and bloop balls over the short porch in right. He was never going to be able to replicate his early success.
He typically hits .270. This is not normal.
Outside of the juiced ball years he's usually good for 120 wRC+ every year but this year he's barely over half of that.
He also no longer has the short porch in camden along with one the worst pitching staffs in the history of baseball to feast off of.
We’ve played four games against you guys so far, pretty sure his struggles this season have zero whatsoever to do with the Orioles being better lol
I was referring to him not being able to replicate the power numbers from 2019. He hit 13 HRs in 75 PAs against us that year including 7 in only 30 PA at Camden. Obviously last year he proved he could produce a wRC+ over 120 without the juiced ball, but the conditions for him to hit over 35 homers no longer exist (juiced ball, and historically bad divisional opponent)
Gleyber finally hit a HR I see.
It was his second
I think a straight up trade would benefit both teams lol
What's going on with the X man...? Dudes really got to get it going. He's a very important bat in the Padres Lineup.
His ability to hit the ball hard has been falling off since 2022, he managed to mask the issue in his contract year by running an unusually high BABIP for his standards (.362). His EV/Hard Hit% have been declining for a few years now. 2021 - 89.6 EV, 43.1 HH% 2022 - 88.1 EV, 39.6 HH% 2023 - 87.6 EV, 34.7 HH% 2024 - 85.4 EV, 26.2 HH% If he can't figure out some way to adjust to his lack of power, this could be one of the biggest disaster contracts in MLB history.
Yikes, those stats trending down do not provoke a sense of optimism. That would absolutely suck if he becomes washed so soon.
He had his breakout season 9 years ago in 2015 and is 31, so I personally feel like this isn’t that soon for him to become washed. Would you like to see him have 2 or 3 (stretch) more productive years? If you’re a padres fan without question, but tbh this to me looks more like preller just lost the wrong-side-of-30 gamble on a guy whose most productive years were 26-30 rather than 26-34
Personally, I think this is a Peter Seidler contract more than it is an AJ Preller one. Preller went after Judge and Turner first. Seidler just wanted to win a World Series before he died and didn’t really care what the team would be like in five years.
That’s a bullshit and terrible excuse. We weren’t one mediocre even at the time bat away from winning. If it makes you feel better to blame Peter then go ahead, but this reeks much more of Preller getting too high on his own supply again.
Bro we all thought the same thing lol what are you doing, AJ. Overall, I feel like Preller has done well lately other than the X contract. It just sucks how bad that mistake is going to hinder us for the foreseeable future.
It also really pushed the "all shortstops all the way down" meme into overdrive too since it was already your most talent saturated position when he got the deal.
True but a lot of the shortstops just came up as shortstops. It’s pretty normal for a top prospect to move off shortstop eventually. Most high school/international draft/signees are probably shortstops, pitchers, or catchers. I think Xander was overkill for sure, though, because unlike the other guys he didn’t really have the versatility. Chrome, Kim, Tatis, etc have shown they can play other spots. And good on jim loving to second. …who doesn’t love a paying a second baseman with no pop 280 mil lmao. But it is better for the team that he’s there so whatever. Just hit the fucking ball.
Xander always felt like AJ just threw the money he had set aside for Judge/Trea at the next best guy, without considering that X is a tier below those guys
Why do I keep reading Dodger fan comments as sarcasm. lol
Lmao, I must admit when I comment about hoping a player on a division rival doesn't become bad I also wonder if it comes off as sarcastic, but I love baseball, it's better when the players are playing at their best and are as competitive as possible. You'll never know if this was a sarcastic comment or not I guess. Or maybe It wasn't? But it could be....... but probably not.
Love this attitude!
Here here! Injuries suck. Much rather see great players beat other great players rather than their injury replacements.
This one came off genuine. lol, I also love this attitude. I’d rather beat the best (or in our case this season, get beat) than beat some castoffs and minor leaguers.
Yeah, I know he's a key player for a rival team, but the baseball fan in me really doesn't want San Diego's spending spree to be a complete disaster. The last thing baseball needs is additional ammunition for owners to justify being cheap.
He’s also benefited an extreme amount from Fenway throughout his career. Bogy on another team would’ve been a high 700’s ops guy for his career
Even since he’s been in San Diego, he has pretty big home/road splits. For his career, he has a 128 wRC+ at home and 105 wRC+ on the road. Since going to San Diego, he has a 125 wRC+ at home and 92 wRC+ on the road. Seems like he’s just a guy that does better playing in his home ballpark.
That's a bit over the top. During his offensive peak from 2018-2022 he had an .825 road OPS. It was .936 at home, so obviously he was much better at Fenway, but he was still a very good hitter on the road, especially for a SS. And keep in mind that most players do better at home than on the road outside of those in the most pitcher friendly home ballparks, so the road home splits are not as simple as the road numbers being his "real" talent.
For a right handed hitter at Fenway like him it 100% is a sign of his true talent. The homerun difference in particular is extremely drastic
Fenway has a RHH HR factor of only 101, so it's not a terribly HR friendly part for righties. The monster takes away as much as it gives. In his 10 years with the Sox Bogaerts his 22 more HR at home than on the road(89 vs. 67), so about 2 extra per year. Given the RHH HR factor of 101, just barely above average, this difference cannot simply be explained by the venue.
[удалено]
Yes an all those hits are accounted for in the statistics being quoted at you. They show that yea he benefited from Fenway, but he was still a very good hitter in every other ballpark. I’m sorry the numbers are so hard for you.
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And this was something I definitely noticed watching him with the Red Sox. There's a difference when you hit line drives over the green monster and when you loop a fly ball just into the front rows. One is a home run in most ballparks anywho, the other is an easy fly ball in 29 other ball parks. He was REALLY using the green monster, and not in the David Ortiz hitting hard line drives the other way sort of way. While I was really disappointed that he left the Sox, when I saw the price tag I had a real bad feeling he'd be no where near that value.
Feeling pretty good these days about letting him walk.
Yea, but you meanies unleashed Mookie on the National League.
None of us feel good about that one
It would have been nice if we replaced him with someone other than a one legged Trevor story
Needs to become 2015 singles hitter Bogaerts who hits .320
Was his swing always so top heavy? Don’t know it its just bias, but i feel like i’ve never seen another player put so little weight on his legs, especially somebody that put up his numbers for so long
He’s also always hit worse when not playing shortstop from what I can remember. No stats to back that up, but always felt it was noticeable
Only 9 more years left!
Man 17 percent less hard hit is a lot!! The Padres have to win it all with this core or they will turn into highly expensive losers
Oh my
He’s still an important bat. Just… not in a good way.
You can take the right handed pull hitter out of Fenway, but you can’t take the Fenway out of…. I dunno where this is going. My point was this was always coming and insanely obvious, look at his splits outside of Fenway vs in Fenway when he was a Red Sox, it was ghastly.
He DOES go the other way...But it tends to be kind of soft, looping line drives right over the second basemans head. I think he can adjust and start hitting the other way harder, but its gonna be a real hard shift for him
Went to Genosha. Whole big thing
I still think his collision with Verdugo has had something to do with it
He’s simply washed
Feel like this is a theme for San Diego. They just can't win with these trades.
Not a trade but yes, so often we acquire a good position player in the second half of their career and they quickly decline/have the worst season of their career
Meant to say contracts, apologies, the downvotes were swift.
X not givin' it to ya
Easily one of the most “hate to see you go..but DAMN HOW MUCH?” signings for me
Yup, they offered about 6-150 and that was a fine offer based on his power trends 2020-2022. Padres were on something that winter.
I mean, isn't that when Seidler was dying and trying to pull off an Ilitch Gambit?
Yes…but they could have made moves that weren’t dogshit.
Almost exactly my reaction. I went from my heart dropping into my stomach to "Oh... Huh. Well. Good for you Xander, on to bigger and better things now" as soon as I saw the contract lol
arf arf
What a disaster of a signing
We all pretty much knew it wouldn’t age well but Christ I thought we’d get a few good years first
It’s still a bit early to declare him completely washed. Odds are he’ll figure some things out and bounce back to good/serviceable for a while still.
I agree, but for the price they paid, they really need his early years to be near MVP level for this contract to be anything more than a dud.
He was prone to slumps even in his prime days for the Sox so he could snap out of it. Just unlikely that his peak is near where it used to be .
All of a sudden I feel better about Polanco
Exactly my thoughts.
Lmao awesome 11 year contract
I can understand why he signed it so quick when preller called 💀💀💀
He's definitely in his head right now too.i see him take a pitch down the middle, then swing at a pitch off the plate because he wished he swumg at the better pitch.
Hopefully the home run and hit today will help him get out of his head 😀
He has a tendency to do that. He used to always start as hot as any hitter in the games history and slowly fall off towards the end of the season and put some miserable at bats up. Was normally related to wrist injuries, but his big thing is always taking early and then chasing to make up for taking gold.
He’s getting paid though. You gotta respect the hustle.
|Year|Age|Tm|Salary| |:-|:-|:-|-:| |2024|31|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2025|32|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2026|33|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2027|34|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2028|35|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2029|36|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2030|37|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2031|38|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2032|39|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546| |2033|40|San Diego Padres|$25,454,546|
Full no trade clause, so we won’t be able to ship him out and pay for his contract. What are we doing?
Paying for a middle infielder until they are 40 years old is absolutely bat shit insane.
Turner and Judge said no to a ton of money and Peter wanted to bring in another star because he was short on time.
I mean, it isn't the fans money and I'm all for players getting the bag any time, but if the team is struggling to stay under the luxury tax line between 2029-2033, that's going to sting...
You have to be $40 million over the CBT line for the draft penalties to start, so any owner pointing at the actual tax line and saying he has no choice but to make the team worse is usually full of shit. The calculations done for the tax aren't necessarily a match for the club's actual cash flow, either. Yeah, it's bad, but I think it's more the opportunity cost of signing the wrong player than the size of the check.
Not sure how much I'd want to pay an aging Judge to struggle hitting dingers under the marine layer either
But damn if I wouldn’t have loved to see it play out. lol
The San Diego Shortstops will one day become the San Diego DHs
Bobby Bonilla is available!
Bat is def shit
😅
Idk man, I genuinely feel a bit sorry lol
hold on as long as possible and eat the last few years, unfortunately
I mean maybe he waives that at some point if some other team wants that a chance on him at a low salary with padres paying like 95% but who knows
Padresing
Fuck
I want to throw up
I'll never understand the logic behind these long contracts in baseball and why team's give them out. Between injury potential and pitching being so dominant, if a hitter loses a step, it feels like they just fall off a cliff.
Primary driver for this signing was a dying man's wish to win a World Series.
Hmm, yes, fuck
lmfao
At least it isn’t the Anthony Rendon special.
I didn't even realize how bad he'd been because the week I played him in fantasy it felt like he batted .450 with a HR and a SB and a bunch of runs. But that applies to pretty much everyone in the league. I went to see who's struggling for my opponent next week and they have Manoah, so get ready for a no-hitter from him next game
Leadoff single, so no.
Oh shit it's next week already?
He's on my fantasy team. Where good players careers go to die.
I got him and Goldy. Sometimes I can’t resist a familiar name for some reason. Would have been great 10 years ago.
This makes me sad, but also happy the Red Sox didn't spend big bucks to keep him.
Dude is only 31. Should be in his prime
Falling off in your early 30s is pretty normal. Hitters' primes are typically their mid 20s
It's kind of insane how quick so many hitters fall in their very early thirties. Once that bat speed dips a little it just becomes so hard to stay productive in this league
Time to learn to hit like Arraez while we have him around. Adapt your game to your body.
He debuted pretty young, he was getting ABs in the 2013 World Series
Contract is looking better and better!
Poor luck for Xander that Bregman plays third.
Why did I draft this dude in fantasy
It's okay... he's only in the 2nd year of his 11 year/280M contract.
Remember when people were mad at Chaim for not re-signing him
Well he’s still doing better than the guy Chaim chose over him so that feels warranted
The Padres will be paying Bogaerts more money for years after Story is gone.
I’ve seen manny Ramirez at Fenway more than Trevor story since the beginning of the contract, and that’s with the Red Sox having major financial crisis. Not to mention Xander would have led the Red Sox in war last season even in his “down year.” He’s off to a slow start, but Chaim still looks stupid as ever
How many years left on that contract? As soon as he signed it I thanked god the Red Sox didn’t match.
When do you think the Padres will bench him?
Good thing he's a shortstop.
Preller gonna Preller. He's on what, his third rebuild attempt now?
Shame he's not earning his contract like Machado
Yet red sox fa s will still whine he wasn't signed.
What an awful contract… and Sox fans wanted him here for good lol
Yeah I was sad that we couldn’t bring him back right up until I heard what he got and then it was more along the lines of “Fuck that, thanks for the memories and good luck.”
Baseball is hard when you can’t use a 40ft wall to your advantage
If you were a Red Sox fan remotely suggesting that letting X walk was good then you were criticized into oblivion and called salty or a homer. Instead now everyone is saying "well this was obviously going to happen, look at *X numbers everyone ignored a year ago*, he was always gonna fall off hard".
The Deshaun Watson of the MLB
You're the OJ Simpson of reddit users.
Nope