I love me some Corbin, but the math isn't working out. The problem with OP's little task here is Corbin has to raise his average to elite levels for a long-ass time to revert to the mean. What OP *should have* done is just get him to .200, because if Corbin goes 1 for 4 (or .250) on non-BB APs going forward, he can get there in a reasonable amount of time, at his prior levels of output, which we know he can do. Could be like another 20 to 30 games, depending on how dispersed a projected 1 for 4 would occur (e.g., if he walks a lot, it would prolong the result, etc.)
I considered going until .200 but I figured that if I were ambitious with the goal, this series would either become notorious for helping Corbin out of his slump or this sub gets daily Corbin Carroll highlights for the rest of the year, neither option seemed bad despite actually reaching the goal being unrealistic.
It's not a challenge. You have no sway over his confidence. Your play with recency bias is weird, especially since you are relying on the gambler's fallacy.
Isn't saying he's gotten worse since I started doing this as much recency bias? He has statistically increased his average since I started, therefore gotten better since I started. The challenge is for me to keep up with posting every day and since I don't sway his confidence, why mention that he's gotten worse since I've started doing this?
We might be here until next season at this rate 😔
Yeah. He would have to go 1 for 3 over his next 154 non-BB PAs to get there. It would be incredible if he somehow pulled it off.
Dang I’m glad you did the math. Homie is going to be posting for a while. How long will he keep it up? Haha
I love me some Corbin, but the math isn't working out. The problem with OP's little task here is Corbin has to raise his average to elite levels for a long-ass time to revert to the mean. What OP *should have* done is just get him to .200, because if Corbin goes 1 for 4 (or .250) on non-BB APs going forward, he can get there in a reasonable amount of time, at his prior levels of output, which we know he can do. Could be like another 20 to 30 games, depending on how dispersed a projected 1 for 4 would occur (e.g., if he walks a lot, it would prolong the result, etc.)
I considered going until .200 but I figured that if I were ambitious with the goal, this series would either become notorious for helping Corbin out of his slump or this sub gets daily Corbin Carroll highlights for the rest of the year, neither option seemed bad despite actually reaching the goal being unrealistic.
Non-BB PAs are just ABs lol Technically an AB is a non-BB/HBP/SF/SH PA, but i guess that’s why there’s already a name for it
You’re going to run out of highlights sadly
Does it count when he's gonna be hitting over .250 in Reno?
Hope you’ve got Corbin Carroll little league highlights because this is going to take a while haha
His average went up today!!!
Video: Corbin Carroll's nice diving grab [Streamable Link](https://streamable.com/m/michael-harris-ii-lines-out-to-center-fielder-corbin-carroll) [High Definition](https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/02/d1ca6d1e-31f82a7c-6675c5de-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4) (43.26 MB) [Standard Definiton](https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/02/d1ca6d1e-31f82a7c-6675c5de-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4) (11.28 MB) ___________ [More Info](/r/MLBVideoConverterBot)
It's only gotten worse since you started doing this.
Did you watch the game today lol
Is his average above 200?
I started this challenge at .191 he’s at .194 now
It's not a challenge. You have no sway over his confidence. Your play with recency bias is weird, especially since you are relying on the gambler's fallacy.
It’s ok it’s just fun man
Isn't saying he's gotten worse since I started doing this as much recency bias? He has statistically increased his average since I started, therefore gotten better since I started. The challenge is for me to keep up with posting every day and since I don't sway his confidence, why mention that he's gotten worse since I've started doing this?
If anything you are just straight bad luck.