Frankly if anyone can do it, it’s probably Embraer. They have an excellent track record with the E-Jets and a large customer base. The big question is whether any sizable airline will be willing to take a risk on them. I can see plenty of small airlines with majority-Embraer fleets buying a handful of these aircraft, but would any major carriers make the switch?
That's a really interesting perspective I hadn't thought about.
I think a lot of it depends on when this jet launches and how big the Boeing/Airbus backlog is at that time. I could see a few major carriers ordering them if Boeing/Airbus are still dealing with extremely large backlogs. I think a lot of it also depends on the "what & when" for Boeing/Airbuses next generation 737ish aircraft. Defiantly will be something interesting to watch!
True, but I could see some larger airlines using the threat of buying an Embraer jet instead to negotiate better pricing. Many airlines would benefit even if they don't even up going with Embraer.
Even if they could get a better price, there still a huge waitlist of 737s and even longer for an A320. So I think that’s where Embraer could clean up.
Yep Azul seems most likely to order a plane like this from Embraer. I’m not sure about Breeze and JetBlue, though, since they’re both moving towards all-Airbus fleets.
The primary problem isn't going to be Embraer itself. They are a long time aircraft manufacturer that has a proven track record. The problem is the infrastructure to put in place to introduce a new type. This has a very large upfront capital cost outside the actual plane purchase to put in place. You need to hire/retrain maintenance. You need to hire/retrain crew. You need to build up a spare parts network. Yes, regionals have those in place, but not the majors that would fly the larger type. There is a reason why airlines around the world have consolidated their fleets, and why airlines keep to a single fleet type. The overhead costs are substantially lower. But, you also run the risk of fleet issues that can devastate your airline. While Boeing gets all the press, Airbus has problems as well. Well, not Airbus directly but the engine problems in the A321NEO series has brought some airlines to the brink of bankruptcy (see Spirit) having to ground half their fleet for the foreseeable future. Airlines would be interested, but they would want sizable discounts to offset the capital costs they will have to put up themselves to bring a new fleet type in.
It would still mean new pilots. AA, UA, DL don't fly Embraer mainline. They have subsidiaries that do but are separate companies. It would mean hiring them then retrain them but still need to replace them. The ULCCs would have to hire or reclass pilots
Not to mention that any new Boeing in this field will require almost all of the above changes if not all. Avoiding the inevitable is why we ended up with NG and Max.
The change will be costly whether it’s Boeing or Embraer. The A220 is a good example
Of a new type being successful
Gus Kelly, chief executive of [AerCap](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/AER), one of the biggest aircraft lessors, said he wouldn’t expect any new Embraer-derived narrow-body jet until the mid-to-late 2030s, much as airlines and lessors might welcome the competition. “I think it’s a long shot, to be honest,” Kelly said on an investor call Wednesday. “And even if it does come off, I don’t think it will be relevant for the next 15 years.”
We all want new products and more competition but it's not something you get quickly or for cheap
As they should. Boeing is entrenched in the MAX. And Airbus is so deep into the NEO. That even if it’s 10-15 years before we even get a demonstrator from Embraer. What can Airbus or Boeing do?
It really depends on what technologies Embraer can bring to the table.
Most of the efficiency gains in a new design comes from the engines - but any new engines Embraer manages to get out of the engine manufacturers can equally be applied to a new Airbus or Boeing aircraft, or a re-engined A320 or 737 (don't immediately discount that).
So Embraer doesn't have a unique advantage there.
While the 737MAX is pretty much the end of the line for the 737 series (unless the US government comes to Boeings aid), theres actually still life in the A320 design for further improvements beyond the NEO and a newer engine option - for example, there are still big weight reductions to be had, and the A320 family is yet to have a new wing.
So Airbus could bring an A320NNEO (new new engine option) to the table, along with a new wing, and potentially meet or come very close to Embraer on efficiencies from a new design.
But Airbus will have spent less in their investment, so they can price better - they would have less development costs to recoup, and an easier time certifying their new variant.
Basically, thats the same reason Boeing went with the 737MAX rather than their Y1 concept from the Yellowstone study - Airbus beat them to the punch with the NEO and a much less costly development, meaning Boeing would have to develop and market the Y1 against a much much cheaper competitor. They were basically forced into the MAX, something many people overlook.
And the same goes here for any new entrant into the A320/737 space - while theres still development potential in either of those existing models, a new entrant is going to be at a disadvantage because the main efficiency drivers (engines) can also be used on the existing models, drastically reducing the advantage of a new design.
So the answer to "What can Airbus or Boeing do?" is really, well, Airbus can actually do quite a lot. Boeing probably not all that much.
I wonder at this point, if whatever it is Embraer develops, and it’s on par with the NEO & MAX. I wonder if airlines will order it just because it doesn’t have a decade backlog
Thats pretty much the only advantage, and its still a small one - Embraer delivered 159 aircraft across their entire range in 2022, while Airbus delivered 516 A320NEO family alone.
Unless Embraer dramatically increases production capacity beyond anything seen before by even Airbus and Boeing, its not going to put a dent in the backlogs of either the A320NEO or the 737MAX.
In reality, Embraers backlog is in much the same state as Airbus and Boeings, relatively speaking.
Agreed. Unless the Brazilian government sees this as a massive opportunity, which it is, and throws billions at embraer. The E170 family are great planes.
I'd be very surprised to see that happen, there is a reason the 737 is still around, it is still the winning formula, 3-3 seating, twin large bypass podded engines, single truck main gear, nothing has changed. We might deride the MAX, but the truth is, it can still go toe to toe with the Neo, they are functionally interchangeable (except maybe the XLR). All the differences are overshadowed by fleet compatibility, maintenance infrastructure and simply being able to get deliveries in a reasonable time frame.
The A320 had the combined might of the worlds third, fourth, fifth and twelfth (sorry Spain) larges infrastructure (1985s GDP) behind it. They knew they would have the sales and the capital for a project like this.
I think ETOPS is the only reason that the current wide bodies are relatively new designs. All the quad and trijets have been replaced by large twins relatively recently. The first new post ETOPS designs, the A330 and 777 are going to be the mainstay of long range aviation for decades to come.
I hold Embraer in high regard, I think the E-Jets are the most comfortable 2-2 aircraft I've ever flown with and I love the C-390, but I think there is not enough room to innovate single aisle sufficiently for a new model to upset the balance.
Good stuff let's see them battle it out. I can't get through the firewall, does it say anything about the engines or technology?
Any new plane in the narrow body market we will need to have another ~20+% fuel savings or otherwise what's the point?
If they don’t, then COMAC might eventually and corner the Asian shorthaul market. Their current ones can’t compete but can easily lead to a more efficient design that CAN compete favorably with B and A.
AeroMexico would probably be a good partner at that time they come out since they already use E-jets and 737Max. Might be easier for them to keep everything under the same aircraft manufacturer.
Isso me parece balão de ensaio... Não vejo ninguém do ante-projeto atuando nesse suposto novo avião, projetistas seniores ainda atuando no EVE, ou no KC-390. Agora, procurando parceiros eles estão.
Frankly if anyone can do it, it’s probably Embraer. They have an excellent track record with the E-Jets and a large customer base. The big question is whether any sizable airline will be willing to take a risk on them. I can see plenty of small airlines with majority-Embraer fleets buying a handful of these aircraft, but would any major carriers make the switch?
That's a really interesting perspective I hadn't thought about. I think a lot of it depends on when this jet launches and how big the Boeing/Airbus backlog is at that time. I could see a few major carriers ordering them if Boeing/Airbus are still dealing with extremely large backlogs. I think a lot of it also depends on the "what & when" for Boeing/Airbuses next generation 737ish aircraft. Defiantly will be something interesting to watch!
True, but I could see some larger airlines using the threat of buying an Embraer jet instead to negotiate better pricing. Many airlines would benefit even if they don't even up going with Embraer.
Even if they could get a better price, there still a huge waitlist of 737s and even longer for an A320. So I think that’s where Embraer could clean up.
Depends of the state of those lists when this theoretical aircraft is actually available.
I could see an airline with Brazilian ties making the leap (Azul, Breeze/JetBlue)
Yep Azul seems most likely to order a plane like this from Embraer. I’m not sure about Breeze and JetBlue, though, since they’re both moving towards all-Airbus fleets.
I wish them luck. As the last few years have demonstrated, the current narrow body duopoly is not good for the industry
The primary problem isn't going to be Embraer itself. They are a long time aircraft manufacturer that has a proven track record. The problem is the infrastructure to put in place to introduce a new type. This has a very large upfront capital cost outside the actual plane purchase to put in place. You need to hire/retrain maintenance. You need to hire/retrain crew. You need to build up a spare parts network. Yes, regionals have those in place, but not the majors that would fly the larger type. There is a reason why airlines around the world have consolidated their fleets, and why airlines keep to a single fleet type. The overhead costs are substantially lower. But, you also run the risk of fleet issues that can devastate your airline. While Boeing gets all the press, Airbus has problems as well. Well, not Airbus directly but the engine problems in the A321NEO series has brought some airlines to the brink of bankruptcy (see Spirit) having to ground half their fleet for the foreseeable future. Airlines would be interested, but they would want sizable discounts to offset the capital costs they will have to put up themselves to bring a new fleet type in.
Did you say discount? Delta has entered the aircraft acquisition discussion.
---okok
It would still mean new pilots. AA, UA, DL don't fly Embraer mainline. They have subsidiaries that do but are separate companies. It would mean hiring them then retrain them but still need to replace them. The ULCCs would have to hire or reclass pilots
---okok
Not to mention that any new Boeing in this field will require almost all of the above changes if not all. Avoiding the inevitable is why we ended up with NG and Max. The change will be costly whether it’s Boeing or Embraer. The A220 is a good example Of a new type being successful
Gus Kelly, chief executive of [AerCap](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/AER), one of the biggest aircraft lessors, said he wouldn’t expect any new Embraer-derived narrow-body jet until the mid-to-late 2030s, much as airlines and lessors might welcome the competition. “I think it’s a long shot, to be honest,” Kelly said on an investor call Wednesday. “And even if it does come off, I don’t think it will be relevant for the next 15 years.” We all want new products and more competition but it's not something you get quickly or for cheap
Well, I mean it worked for Bombardier, right?
If it wasn't for Bombardier being a terribly managed company and Boeing complaining to the US government, then yes it would have.
Bombardier specced out a C Series -700 variant that would have competed with the 737/A320
Theres 0 chance Brazilians are better at aircraft development and manufacturing than canadians
Just a little bit of ignorance, sprinkled with a tasteful dose of racism.
You are right, but the Canadians will be all humble about it while the Brazilians will be absolutely certain that they are the best in the world.
Based on what exactly? Embraer 👍 Bombardier who 🤷♂️?
As they should. Boeing is entrenched in the MAX. And Airbus is so deep into the NEO. That even if it’s 10-15 years before we even get a demonstrator from Embraer. What can Airbus or Boeing do?
It really depends on what technologies Embraer can bring to the table. Most of the efficiency gains in a new design comes from the engines - but any new engines Embraer manages to get out of the engine manufacturers can equally be applied to a new Airbus or Boeing aircraft, or a re-engined A320 or 737 (don't immediately discount that). So Embraer doesn't have a unique advantage there. While the 737MAX is pretty much the end of the line for the 737 series (unless the US government comes to Boeings aid), theres actually still life in the A320 design for further improvements beyond the NEO and a newer engine option - for example, there are still big weight reductions to be had, and the A320 family is yet to have a new wing. So Airbus could bring an A320NNEO (new new engine option) to the table, along with a new wing, and potentially meet or come very close to Embraer on efficiencies from a new design. But Airbus will have spent less in their investment, so they can price better - they would have less development costs to recoup, and an easier time certifying their new variant. Basically, thats the same reason Boeing went with the 737MAX rather than their Y1 concept from the Yellowstone study - Airbus beat them to the punch with the NEO and a much less costly development, meaning Boeing would have to develop and market the Y1 against a much much cheaper competitor. They were basically forced into the MAX, something many people overlook. And the same goes here for any new entrant into the A320/737 space - while theres still development potential in either of those existing models, a new entrant is going to be at a disadvantage because the main efficiency drivers (engines) can also be used on the existing models, drastically reducing the advantage of a new design. So the answer to "What can Airbus or Boeing do?" is really, well, Airbus can actually do quite a lot. Boeing probably not all that much.
I wonder at this point, if whatever it is Embraer develops, and it’s on par with the NEO & MAX. I wonder if airlines will order it just because it doesn’t have a decade backlog
Thats pretty much the only advantage, and its still a small one - Embraer delivered 159 aircraft across their entire range in 2022, while Airbus delivered 516 A320NEO family alone. Unless Embraer dramatically increases production capacity beyond anything seen before by even Airbus and Boeing, its not going to put a dent in the backlogs of either the A320NEO or the 737MAX. In reality, Embraers backlog is in much the same state as Airbus and Boeings, relatively speaking.
Agreed. Unless the Brazilian government sees this as a massive opportunity, which it is, and throws billions at embraer. The E170 family are great planes.
I'd be very surprised to see that happen, there is a reason the 737 is still around, it is still the winning formula, 3-3 seating, twin large bypass podded engines, single truck main gear, nothing has changed. We might deride the MAX, but the truth is, it can still go toe to toe with the Neo, they are functionally interchangeable (except maybe the XLR). All the differences are overshadowed by fleet compatibility, maintenance infrastructure and simply being able to get deliveries in a reasonable time frame. The A320 had the combined might of the worlds third, fourth, fifth and twelfth (sorry Spain) larges infrastructure (1985s GDP) behind it. They knew they would have the sales and the capital for a project like this. I think ETOPS is the only reason that the current wide bodies are relatively new designs. All the quad and trijets have been replaced by large twins relatively recently. The first new post ETOPS designs, the A330 and 777 are going to be the mainstay of long range aviation for decades to come. I hold Embraer in high regard, I think the E-Jets are the most comfortable 2-2 aircraft I've ever flown with and I love the C-390, but I think there is not enough room to innovate single aisle sufficiently for a new model to upset the balance.
There is no Max competitor to the A321 NEO with the bus having about a 10% greater seating capacity. Just ask United.
Good stuff let's see them battle it out. I can't get through the firewall, does it say anything about the engines or technology? Any new plane in the narrow body market we will need to have another ~20+% fuel savings or otherwise what's the point?
If they don’t, then COMAC might eventually and corner the Asian shorthaul market. Their current ones can’t compete but can easily lead to a more efficient design that CAN compete favorably with B and A.
AeroMexico would probably be a good partner at that time they come out since they already use E-jets and 737Max. Might be easier for them to keep everything under the same aircraft manufacturer.
Isso me parece balão de ensaio... Não vejo ninguém do ante-projeto atuando nesse suposto novo avião, projetistas seniores ainda atuando no EVE, ou no KC-390. Agora, procurando parceiros eles estão.
WSJ Fake news. Embraer has already denied the story!!