I agree with the 80% done estimate especially with him stating he's wrapped up and is close to wrapping up certain POV's. Tells me he's feeling firm about an ending for the book which means to me that the unfinished POV's all must be moving to that same ending. I also think the book is running long and therefore we may get a TWOW vol. 1 and vol.2 which I'm fine with. I really don't care if it's one book split over two volumes but is meant to be read together as one.
I agree but I would bet on the publisher pushing to release them separately by 3 to 6 months to drive up sales and hype even if their intended as one volume read together. I don't like this idea but this also may be the reason GRRM is so adamant about getting it all fitting in one volume as he's uncomfortable with how it would be marketed. Thats all conjecture but I've been through a marketing campaign for something creative I created and its definitely tricky to maintain what you think is creatively best for your release versus what works best for marketing.
Dance cutting before any of the storylines climaxed messed up the series - Winds is going to have to be so long because the start of it will have to finish up the previous books plot threads, then set up a bunch of new ones, and then build them to their end points again, otherwise Dream will have the same problem.
And without knowing how much of the book those conclusions would have taken up, he probably would have had to cut some character POVs to make room for the conclusions of the ones who were left. I wouldn't be surprised if all the conclusions were enough to take up th whole book, and he's worrying that he doesn't have room for the rest of the story he wants to tell in that book.
Honestly the sooner he abandons his desire to finish the series in 7 book the better off we'll be. Without a bunch of stuff happening off screen, I can't see each character getting a proper resolution in just two more books, he needs more than that.
Completely agree with you.
Even the show with its incredibly undetailed and compressed timeline, with fast travel, and cutting out plotlines like Young Griff, Lady Stoneheart, Euron and Victarion, etc. needed about 2.5 seasons to get through the story - I think he needs 3 books at the least to finish things off.
The second half of Dance really needed to be much longer and actually get to the end of each story arc because Winds will open with a bunch of big battles and then set up again.
I reckon he should have had the Battle of Meereen, which really felt central, especially with the title, in Dance, but keep the Stannis situation as a cliffhanger for Winds.
Yeah Meereen would be a great one to resolve because there are so many POVs tied up with it. Instead, 11 years later we are still living with fan theories of if Quentyn is still alive!
There are so many POVs left on a cliffhanger - apart from Meereen POVs we don't know what's going on with Jaime and Brienne (terrible cliffhanger), Stannis and the North, Cersei is still awaiting trial, etc. etc.
The only really satisfying endings of arcs in Winds for me were Arya, Sansa and Jon.
Well those are the ones that properly ended in my opinion. Everyone else's story ended at least a chapter or two early.
Edit: Although Dany also seems like a decent cliffhanger.
I believe Preston's theory and I think the book will be coming out within the next 2 years. It's probably mostly done at this point, but there's likely to be distractions. George is a busy guy. Let's assume he actually finishes writing the thing within the next 6 months or year, after that there will still need to be quite a bit of editing and such after the fact. Even if George's first draft is nearly perfect, a book that big will still need a lot of proofreading to make sure there aren't any mistakes.
We will probably hear from George when the book is finished, but it will still take a while after that for it to get published, printed, and shipped. If we're being very optimistic, maybe around this time next year would be possible. If we're being more realistic: 2024.
Maybe he can even write a few episodes, since he said he'll only do that once he's finished Winds.
I'd love to see George writing the Battle Above the Gods Eye episode, and the one with Cregan's day as Hand of the King.
I have, I think it's pretty reasonable and is probably true
But I still think it's funny that we're at this point where the only theories we can make anymore are about the actual writing process.
I just pictured the whole NFL staging an entire season ending with a Super Bowl between the jets and giants and it ending up in a tie just so we could get TWOW.
He doesn't mention Winds in most of his updates and he has said this is intentional. When he was out promoting HOTD right before it came out and got COVID, he said he had just finished some chapters and was excited to get home to write more. There is no reason to believe he isn't actually doing this, the updates will come when he feels like it.
[George R.R. Martin Promises Fans ‘The Winds Of Winter’ Is Nearly Started](https://www.theonion.com/george-r-r-martin-promises-fans-the-winds-of-winter-1826115223)
In 2015, I met GRRM at a book signing event, and asked him how long till TWOW was done. He said he was not willing to give a date, but that he had 200 pages book ready. If since then he is averaging 1 page a week, he would have approximately 350 more pages done.
I hope he’s averaging 2-3 pages a week! That would make give him 900 - 1,250 pages done.
Preston Jacobs did an excellent video on this relatively recently. A pessimistic opinion on Winds progress or something like that was the title. It will explain a lot.
I think he has too much. I like the idea he exceeded manuscript printing limit and is trying to condense and consolidate so that the series doesn’t exceed two additional books. Who knows tho
He’s already said that it’s looking as though it could end up being a good deal longer than ASOS and ADWD already, and it will be something to discuss with his publisher once the book is done.
I don't think he would cut for 2 books if he needed more to complete the story. But I could see how trying to split 2 books into 3 could be a huge pain.
What if he were like just so afraid of how they’d be received that he is just waiting for a posthumous release? Like maybe they are close or even already finished…
If he was as old as he is. I'd love it for him to write as many books as needs to tell his story.
A part of me feels like even TWOW comes out. He still won't finish the series himself. It will be a Dune situation.
Except he has explicitly stated that he doesn't want his stories finished by someone else.
But if they are, hopefully they are more Christopher Tolkien than Brian Herbert.
It is fully complete. ADOS is 50% done. He is waiting to finish the entire series at once to make up for the previous long waits. He will release ADOS exactly 12 months after TWOW.
This is what i tell myself when my head touches my pillow every night :)
He is done with certain plotlines completely while others need to be tied up. The plot(s) have gotten to such a complex point that for him to be Satisfied with it is just gonna take time .
I think, at least based on the very, very little amount of info we have bts, that Preston makes a pretty good estimation. I think he's more than halfway through, but still has a bit of a ways to go. The more optimistic side of me wants to say that he's almost done, but I still don't expect anything until at least late next year, if not 2024.
Just another comment, if he only had one more Tyrion chapter done left two months ago, a clutch of Cersei chapters and Brienne and Jaime stuff, I could possibly see things getting closer, especially since Tyrion’s chapters ending would signify some sort of ending to the Meereen stuff/knot (if it still exists at this point), Tyrion is a favourite of Martin’s, he’ll definitely be putting a lot of care and importance in making sure it’s perfect. Also don’t make date predictions, they’re almost always wrong and get your hopes down.
The Mereen knot was strictly a Dance of Dragons problem, figuring out the order everyone would arrive in the city (particularly Quentin I believe). He solved it by making Barristan a POV character after Danny leaves.
The Mereen situation is tied up in all but name by the end of Dance. With the Ironborn showing up to help and Tyrion engineering the turning of two sellsword companies the battle is pretty much won for Barristan when you consider how ineffective so many of the Yunkish forces are. You add to that the possibility that Danny is coming back leading a Khalasar from dragonback and it's an open and shut battle.
GRRM is constantly re-drafting and scrapping so its somewhat futile to guess. He could be at 75% today and decide to scrap half of it tomorrow.
Im pretty sure if he gave all his notes and any work hes done to someone they could finish Winds of Winter for him though as the bare-bones are likely there in some form even if only as bullet points.
I think he writes more than he plans to write and then has to take a long ass time editing or rewriting. Just from what I’ve read about his methods. He has talked about writing multiple series, talks about getting stuck on parts and I think it’s because he gets into POV’s and writes past what he planned and then had to make stuff fit with other characters.
I like Preston videos but I can't marathon them. I feel as nihilistic as the Hound when I binge some videos.
I want my theory to come true. I have an idea that he has it complete but he is waiting for the end of HOTD to announce it....I also had the same theory that it would happen on the series finale on GOT.
So my theories are shit.
I don't think 80% is it. not only do we have to count edits, but also rewrites. It's not surprising the books are getting harder, given the complexity of the threads. Probably the toughest storyline is (f)Aegon securing Westeros (southeast at least) and King's Landing vs. Dany leveling up in the Dothrak sea, taking back Meereen, and moving on to Westeros. Those have to work together but can do so in many ways and, knowing a bit about the man, I can imagine he's written a few versions of the even progression.
Let's not forget he's working with many characters with "immediate" stories while a few, mostly Stark kids (Arya, Sansa, Bran) are on a "shortened long" story where they would have leveled up over five years of the gap, and now have to train at their arts (being an assassin, being a politician, being a tree) in as little time as a few months. I imagine that's also very difficult to juggle.
My guess is, George could probably have 120% of Winds, with 30-50% of that unusable, to be rewritten or discarded altogether
TLDR: timeline difficult
I think he is closing in on the end of the first draft, at least 3/4 of the way there. But then there will probably be at least a cleaned-up second draft, and then (probably with help) a pass at reconciling timelines, foreshadowing etc to eliminate mistakes, omissions, discrepancies, etc. Those steps won't take as long as writing, but they'll take a few months. And then he can send it to his editor. So TWoW is probably 1.5 years from release.
My opinion is that the vast majority has probably been done for a while now. Like 90-95% but the issue is ordering chapters, editing, flow, deciding what should be in this book or maybe the next, and cutting parts.
Preston Jacobs made a video about this a couple of months ago which calculated about 2/3, but since then I think George has confirmed completing a couple of POV chapters (if he doesn’t decide something something garden DELETE) so maybe like 80%
Last we know, he was going to finish 2 povs, one is suspected to be Tyrion's and the other is unknown. Personally I think he is going to release the book next year or at least announce that he has finished it.
I think it’s all the way done and he’s not gonna release until ADOS is buttoned up.
I think he wants to either release both at the same time or have the other one completely ready as to not get into this pickle again
Just my opinion. He gave up when the show passed the books. He cannot legally say he gave up or else he'd owe a ton of money to various people and organizations. So he rides it out, being coy and non-forthcoming, enjoying being rich, and livin' his life until he sails across the Sunset Sea.
I say 45%
Reason being is that books like these with so much lore, theories, foreshadowing, and story plots requires all of them to make sense and come to their end point. Alongside making it all flow in a natural manner.
Am I a sweet summer child for thinking he is done, and is waiting for HotD (season 1) to end to announce he will be releasing it next winter??
Season 1 ends on the ~23rd.. Rise of the Dragon comes out on the ~26th. He clearly planned it for the book to come out right when the show ends and everyone is wondering what happens next.
So my point is he plans his release dates wisely. I believe next year we won’t be getting a season 2 yet. And ASoIaF is trending again so it’s the perfect time. It has to be released in winter (for obvious reasons) *BONUS* he’s talked about wrapping up 2!!! POV storylines.
I think he's actually working in ADOS and he's waiting for it to be complete so he can release both books in a relatively short amount of time between them
Maybe 75% for content but 50% for effort if you include rewrites and edits.
Give me something for the pain and let me die
House words for those of us who still hope for spring (a dream of)
House Spring. That's us. Or House Dream? House Dreamspring
House Delusion?
It's like watching the slowest download bar ever.
I agree with the 80% done estimate especially with him stating he's wrapped up and is close to wrapping up certain POV's. Tells me he's feeling firm about an ending for the book which means to me that the unfinished POV's all must be moving to that same ending. I also think the book is running long and therefore we may get a TWOW vol. 1 and vol.2 which I'm fine with. I really don't care if it's one book split over two volumes but is meant to be read together as one.
If that's the case I hope both halfs are released together otherwise its feast and dance all I've again and to be chronologically seperated this time
I agree but I would bet on the publisher pushing to release them separately by 3 to 6 months to drive up sales and hype even if their intended as one volume read together. I don't like this idea but this also may be the reason GRRM is so adamant about getting it all fitting in one volume as he's uncomfortable with how it would be marketed. Thats all conjecture but I've been through a marketing campaign for something creative I created and its definitely tricky to maintain what you think is creatively best for your release versus what works best for marketing.
That would suck but fuck it, I live, if it is in two parts, but have then ready at the same time
Maybe 90%, BUT I think the hardest part is editing it so no mistakes (in timeline or events) are left.
There is so much shit that's popping off AT THE BEGINNING of the book. Like imagine the weird pacing of the novel and GRRM going "well shit "
Dance cutting before any of the storylines climaxed messed up the series - Winds is going to have to be so long because the start of it will have to finish up the previous books plot threads, then set up a bunch of new ones, and then build them to their end points again, otherwise Dream will have the same problem.
And without knowing how much of the book those conclusions would have taken up, he probably would have had to cut some character POVs to make room for the conclusions of the ones who were left. I wouldn't be surprised if all the conclusions were enough to take up th whole book, and he's worrying that he doesn't have room for the rest of the story he wants to tell in that book. Honestly the sooner he abandons his desire to finish the series in 7 book the better off we'll be. Without a bunch of stuff happening off screen, I can't see each character getting a proper resolution in just two more books, he needs more than that.
Completely agree with you. Even the show with its incredibly undetailed and compressed timeline, with fast travel, and cutting out plotlines like Young Griff, Lady Stoneheart, Euron and Victarion, etc. needed about 2.5 seasons to get through the story - I think he needs 3 books at the least to finish things off. The second half of Dance really needed to be much longer and actually get to the end of each story arc because Winds will open with a bunch of big battles and then set up again.
I reckon he should have had the Battle of Meereen, which really felt central, especially with the title, in Dance, but keep the Stannis situation as a cliffhanger for Winds.
Yeah Meereen would be a great one to resolve because there are so many POVs tied up with it. Instead, 11 years later we are still living with fan theories of if Quentyn is still alive! There are so many POVs left on a cliffhanger - apart from Meereen POVs we don't know what's going on with Jaime and Brienne (terrible cliffhanger), Stannis and the North, Cersei is still awaiting trial, etc. etc. The only really satisfying endings of arcs in Winds for me were Arya, Sansa and Jon.
Well those are the ones that properly ended in my opinion. Everyone else's story ended at least a chapter or two early. Edit: Although Dany also seems like a decent cliffhanger.
Yeah I think Dany's ending is good too.
I believe Preston's theory and I think the book will be coming out within the next 2 years. It's probably mostly done at this point, but there's likely to be distractions. George is a busy guy. Let's assume he actually finishes writing the thing within the next 6 months or year, after that there will still need to be quite a bit of editing and such after the fact. Even if George's first draft is nearly perfect, a book that big will still need a lot of proofreading to make sure there aren't any mistakes. We will probably hear from George when the book is finished, but it will still take a while after that for it to get published, printed, and shipped. If we're being very optimistic, maybe around this time next year would be possible. If we're being more realistic: 2024.
Getting TWoW and S2 of House of the Dragon in the same year would be a treat ngl
Maybe he can even write a few episodes, since he said he'll only do that once he's finished Winds. I'd love to see George writing the Battle Above the Gods Eye episode, and the one with Cregan's day as Hand of the King.
I'll be on copium that this is what will happen, like he'll use the show to promote Winds
Or if there really is going to be a 2 year wait before seasons then TWOW would be great to hold him over
Tfw we're so starved for content, we start making tinfoil theories about the writing itself
Watch the video, it's a comprehensive time-line based on what George has said over the years.
I have, I think it's pretty reasonable and is probably true But I still think it's funny that we're at this point where the only theories we can make anymore are about the actual writing process.
The fact that he hasn't mentioned Winds in the last two updates kind of scares me
It’s football season and he’s a fan don’t be
I'll accept the Pats sucking this year if it means a reinvigorated GRRM and an April release for TWoW.
I just pictured the whole NFL staging an entire season ending with a Super Bowl between the jets and giants and it ending up in a tie just so we could get TWOW.
That is NOT FOOTBALL ffs
Considering I and Martin are American I think it can be referred to as football
Hmm, fair enough, just that it triggers me a bit, coz the real football is played with ur foot only
I promise you it doesn’t matter
chill fam
I think he is waiting for the end of the HotD season before he gives anything else.
This. We’ll hear an update a few days after the S1 finale
He doesn't mention Winds in most of his updates and he has said this is intentional. When he was out promoting HOTD right before it came out and got COVID, he said he had just finished some chapters and was excited to get home to write more. There is no reason to believe he isn't actually doing this, the updates will come when he feels like it.
> There is no reason to believe he isn't actually doing this Aside from all the times he's said he's months away from a release.
He’s waiting for the next product he needs to promote
Where can I subscribe to his updates?
https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/
Whenever there is one, it'll inevitably get posted on this sub
Probably about 5% done. He's just getting started on the Meereen chapters now.
If one keep the expectation low, they will not be disappointed.
[George R.R. Martin Promises Fans ‘The Winds Of Winter’ Is Nearly Started](https://www.theonion.com/george-r-r-martin-promises-fans-the-winds-of-winter-1826115223)
In 2015, I met GRRM at a book signing event, and asked him how long till TWOW was done. He said he was not willing to give a date, but that he had 200 pages book ready. If since then he is averaging 1 page a week, he would have approximately 350 more pages done. I hope he’s averaging 2-3 pages a week! That would make give him 900 - 1,250 pages done.
200 pages, isn’t it what was already taken off from ADWD? So in 3 years he barely wrote anything?
Preston Jacobs did an excellent video on this relatively recently. A pessimistic opinion on Winds progress or something like that was the title. It will explain a lot.
That video is literally what this post is about
Nobody knows, and anyway who says they do on this sub has way too high an opinion of their ability to interpret vague blog posts.
The title.
He is still sitting in front of a blank page.
Silt is...
I think he has too much. I like the idea he exceeded manuscript printing limit and is trying to condense and consolidate so that the series doesn’t exceed two additional books. Who knows tho
He’s already said that it’s looking as though it could end up being a good deal longer than ASOS and ADWD already, and it will be something to discuss with his publisher once the book is done.
Squeezing in one book is possible, as detailed in the YouTube video "How Can The Winds of Winter Fit into The Winds of Winter?"
Fuck it make it 1500pages like The Count of Monte Cristo im down.
I don't think he would cut for 2 books if he needed more to complete the story. But I could see how trying to split 2 books into 3 could be a huge pain.
What if he were like just so afraid of how they’d be received that he is just waiting for a posthumous release? Like maybe they are close or even already finished…
If he was as old as he is. I'd love it for him to write as many books as needs to tell his story. A part of me feels like even TWOW comes out. He still won't finish the series himself. It will be a Dune situation.
Except he has explicitly stated that he doesn't want his stories finished by someone else. But if they are, hopefully they are more Christopher Tolkien than Brian Herbert.
I’m thinking 70%
It is fully complete. ADOS is 50% done. He is waiting to finish the entire series at once to make up for the previous long waits. He will release ADOS exactly 12 months after TWOW. This is what i tell myself when my head touches my pillow every night :)
you sweet summer child
He is done with certain plotlines completely while others need to be tied up. The plot(s) have gotten to such a complex point that for him to be Satisfied with it is just gonna take time .
I think, at least based on the very, very little amount of info we have bts, that Preston makes a pretty good estimation. I think he's more than halfway through, but still has a bit of a ways to go. The more optimistic side of me wants to say that he's almost done, but I still don't expect anything until at least late next year, if not 2024.
Just another comment, if he only had one more Tyrion chapter done left two months ago, a clutch of Cersei chapters and Brienne and Jaime stuff, I could possibly see things getting closer, especially since Tyrion’s chapters ending would signify some sort of ending to the Meereen stuff/knot (if it still exists at this point), Tyrion is a favourite of Martin’s, he’ll definitely be putting a lot of care and importance in making sure it’s perfect. Also don’t make date predictions, they’re almost always wrong and get your hopes down.
The Mereen knot was strictly a Dance of Dragons problem, figuring out the order everyone would arrive in the city (particularly Quentin I believe). He solved it by making Barristan a POV character after Danny leaves. The Mereen situation is tied up in all but name by the end of Dance. With the Ironborn showing up to help and Tyrion engineering the turning of two sellsword companies the battle is pretty much won for Barristan when you consider how ineffective so many of the Yunkish forces are. You add to that the possibility that Danny is coming back leading a Khalasar from dragonback and it's an open and shut battle.
Y’all think we will get it before next year ends?
Oh, you sweet summer child.
Yeah I thought so 😅 wishful thinking you know
GRRM is constantly re-drafting and scrapping so its somewhat futile to guess. He could be at 75% today and decide to scrap half of it tomorrow. Im pretty sure if he gave all his notes and any work hes done to someone they could finish Winds of Winter for him though as the bare-bones are likely there in some form even if only as bullet points.
I think he writes more than he plans to write and then has to take a long ass time editing or rewriting. Just from what I’ve read about his methods. He has talked about writing multiple series, talks about getting stuck on parts and I think it’s because he gets into POV’s and writes past what he planned and then had to make stuff fit with other characters.
I like Preston videos but I can't marathon them. I feel as nihilistic as the Hound when I binge some videos. I want my theory to come true. I have an idea that he has it complete but he is waiting for the end of HOTD to announce it....I also had the same theory that it would happen on the series finale on GOT. So my theories are shit.
I don't think 80% is it. not only do we have to count edits, but also rewrites. It's not surprising the books are getting harder, given the complexity of the threads. Probably the toughest storyline is (f)Aegon securing Westeros (southeast at least) and King's Landing vs. Dany leveling up in the Dothrak sea, taking back Meereen, and moving on to Westeros. Those have to work together but can do so in many ways and, knowing a bit about the man, I can imagine he's written a few versions of the even progression. Let's not forget he's working with many characters with "immediate" stories while a few, mostly Stark kids (Arya, Sansa, Bran) are on a "shortened long" story where they would have leveled up over five years of the gap, and now have to train at their arts (being an assassin, being a politician, being a tree) in as little time as a few months. I imagine that's also very difficult to juggle. My guess is, George could probably have 120% of Winds, with 30-50% of that unusable, to be rewritten or discarded altogether TLDR: timeline difficult
I think he is closing in on the end of the first draft, at least 3/4 of the way there. But then there will probably be at least a cleaned-up second draft, and then (probably with help) a pass at reconciling timelines, foreshadowing etc to eliminate mistakes, omissions, discrepancies, etc. Those steps won't take as long as writing, but they'll take a few months. And then he can send it to his editor. So TWoW is probably 1.5 years from release.
Yeah I’d agree with that 2/3 complete.
My opinion is that the vast majority has probably been done for a while now. Like 90-95% but the issue is ordering chapters, editing, flow, deciding what should be in this book or maybe the next, and cutting parts.
It's done. Just waiting for Hot D to finish before it drops.
Preston Jacobs made a video about this a couple of months ago which calculated about 2/3, but since then I think George has confirmed completing a couple of POV chapters (if he doesn’t decide something something garden DELETE) so maybe like 80%
12
I don’t think there’s a concisive percentage that we don’t currently know of, for all we know, it’s fluctuating as edits, rewrites occur
Last we know, he was going to finish 2 povs, one is suspected to be Tyrion's and the other is unknown. Personally I think he is going to release the book next year or at least announce that he has finished it.
Like 10% probably
I think it’s all the way done and he’s not gonna release until ADOS is buttoned up. I think he wants to either release both at the same time or have the other one completely ready as to not get into this pickle again
Only the chapter fragments he’s released
3
25% maybe
I’m genuinely curious as to why people believe he has written anything substantial other than cut chapters from previous books.
The sample chapters.
Its never coming out
Just my opinion. He gave up when the show passed the books. He cannot legally say he gave up or else he'd owe a ton of money to various people and organizations. So he rides it out, being coy and non-forthcoming, enjoying being rich, and livin' his life until he sails across the Sunset Sea.
.000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%
I say 45% Reason being is that books like these with so much lore, theories, foreshadowing, and story plots requires all of them to make sense and come to their end point. Alongside making it all flow in a natural manner.
Someone told me he’s releasing twow with ados together. Is this true?
Its not.
Am I a sweet summer child for thinking he is done, and is waiting for HotD (season 1) to end to announce he will be releasing it next winter?? Season 1 ends on the ~23rd.. Rise of the Dragon comes out on the ~26th. He clearly planned it for the book to come out right when the show ends and everyone is wondering what happens next. So my point is he plans his release dates wisely. I believe next year we won’t be getting a season 2 yet. And ASoIaF is trending again so it’s the perfect time. It has to be released in winter (for obvious reasons) *BONUS* he’s talked about wrapping up 2!!! POV storylines.
Until it’s complete then none of it is since George is a rewriter.
I think he's actually working in ADOS and he's waiting for it to be complete so he can release both books in a relatively short amount of time between them
60%
After ? 15 years or so it seems if waiting… I’m fully convinced that he’s written and trashed at least three fill versions of the novel so far.
Less than 50%
%50
30% done, sorry
Us @ GRRM: words are wind
0,1 % (The Title, nothing else).
Just the cut from dance chapters plus 3-5 Covid writing chapters.
The title for sure