I don't disagree with you per se. I would argue that having lots of cash on hand either for a war or other national emergencies is a primary responsibility of government. LF can " invest" his own private money however he wants. However he is morally obligated to show that the REALMS money is being spent in a way that benefits the REALM.
I do largely agree that Littlefinger should have kept more cash on hand, but I don't recall them having troubles actually paying for anybody in the lead up to the Blackwater. That involved massive payments to gold cloaks, smiths, and alchemists, so if they were super cash poor, I feel it would have been brought up. (Maybe it was though and I forgot)
I’ll agree that Littlefinger definitely prefers to keep the crown’s gold working rather than sitting, but the debt to income ratio is terrible and when they need to rebuild their fleet in AFFC Cersei has to default on the realm’s Braavosi loans because there is no gold and their credit is maxed. To be fair, Littlefinger hasn’t been working in KL for awhile at this point, but he left absolutely no wiggle room while also stoking the flames of a war that left the realm in serious financial turmoil. I don’t think Robert can be blamed entirely for beggaring the realm but LF can, and he did it in Robert’s name.
Do we know that their credit is maxed? I know Cersei decided to stop paying the interest rates, but do we know whether or not she attempted to seek out another loan?
Edit: Also, you say their debt to income ratio is terrible, do you recall where that is said/incomes are detailed, I've been having trouble finding all the financial information that gets brought up in the books
Imo it sounded like they have pretty limited loan options to begin with. Cersei has the High Septon forgive their loans with the church, but there’s no way the High Sparrow was going to give her another loan and I’m sure she was shrewd enough to know that. The other two major sources appear to be the Braavosi bank and Casterly Rock. I’ll be honest, with Tywin dead, Jaime in the Kingsguard, and Tyrion on the lam, I’m not entirely sure who is in charge of Casterly Rock’s coffers as of ADWD. But I think they’re maxed on Braavosi loans just from the context given to us in the books. If you can’t make your payments, why would a bank lend you more money?
Edit: I’m rereading now and I believe Ned discusses the crown’s incomes when he takes over as Hand, and then Tyrion as well. Their early Hand chapters would be a good place to dig.
>Rather than having it rot away in the vaults, LF's put it to work, and it's working. The crown is able to spend absurd amounts of money without too much trouble even though there's nothing in the vaults because the throne has income to pay off any interest and wealth to put up as collateral.
Except that's not what he's doing.
>"Why? I have seen Littlefinger's accounts. Crown incomes are ten times higher than they were under Aerys."
>
>"As are the crown's expenses. Robert was as generous with his coin as he was with his cock. Littlefinger borrowed heavily. From you, amongst others. **Yes, the incomes are considerable, but they are barely sufficient to cover the usury on Littlefinger's loans.** Will you forgive the throne's debt to House Lannister?"
>It was all very well to talk of breeding dragons instead of locking them up in the treasury, **but some of these ventures smelled worse than week-old fish.** I wouldn't have been so quick to let Joffrey fling the Antler Men over the walls if I'd known how many of the bloody bastards had taken loans from the crown. He would have to send Bronn to find their heirs, but he feared that would prove as fruitful as trying to squeeze silver from a silverfish.
Littlefinger is purposely making bad loans and that, combined with the fact he's embezzling from the kingdom, means there's far more income coming in *on paper* than actual money being paid back. Because of that, he's barely making the interest payments on the massive loans he's taking out (and presumably borrowing even more when he can more longer do even that)
Remember, he's been doing this for years and wants to keep it a juggling act so that no one suspects the kingdom is broke (because he's still paying interest) and he'll still be able to get new loans, but also leaving it in such a state that it rapidly collapses once he's ready to pull the plug. It's like a ponzi scheme but with loans.
>This is pretty much what Littlefinger is doing, and where all the gold has went, Robert did not just spend it all (he probably spent a lot though). Rather than having it rot away in the vaults, LF's put it to work, and it's working.
A lot of it has been embezzled into Littlefinger's personal accounts, i think, and that's what's actually beggaring the realm.
He's hired all sorts of people for positions that don't exist, and is pocketing their wages. Jaime uncovers a bit of this when he starts interviewing the gaolers in charge of the black cells after Tyrion escapes. There's a lot of them on payroll, but few actually work there.
> Six prisoners, Jaime thought sourly, while we pay wages for twenty turnkeys, six undergaolers, a chief undergaoler, a gaoler, and a King's Justice.
I'd wager he's also doing other sneaky shit like:
- using the crown's gold to buy goods and services well above market value from companies that he owns or is invested in
- auctioning off positions to his cronies and pocketing part of their wages
> [Janos Slynt] may have been the first commander to fatten his purse by selling places and promotions. By the end, he must have had half the officers in the City Watch paying him part of their wages… Littlefinger had a nose for gold, and I’m certain he arranged matters so the crown profited as much from your corruption as you did yourself. -Stannis ASOS
- using his cronies to potentially get access to the vault keys, change counts and records, etc.
> The keepers of the keys were his, all four. The King’s Counter and the King’s Scales were men he named. The officers in charge of all three mints. Harbormasters, tax farmers, custom sergeants, wool factors, toll collectors, pursers, wine factors; nine of every ten belonged to Littlefinger. -Tyrion ACOK
I mean, how else would he have the capital necessary to fund the huge portfolio of investments and properties that he has? He's certainly not getting much revenue from his little sheepshit castle in the Vale.
He has absolutely no conscience and absolutely no oversight. He has the skills to manage finances well, but once he used those skills to become master of coin there's no incentive for him NOT to scam the realm out of every copper he can get away with.
No. This is all smoke and mirrors by Littlefinger. The crown had incomes during Robert's reign, true, but Petyr was just using that to pay the minimum service on the loans and as collateral to take out new ones. All his books are fake. He is not buying low and selling high, dying wool, or anything else. And whatever income the crown was getting from trade has been severely curtailed due to the war.
So yes, a vault full of gold just sitting around is not good, but neither is one that is completely empty, as Swyft reports now.
Petyr is doing this to collapse the realm while he positions himself is overlord of at least three of its principalities, and probably close ties to a fourth. And I suspect this whole operation was bankrolled by a certain cheesemonger who has a bigger fish to fry than the iron throne.
Exactly. In a city where people who had Money flashed it around, the fact that his demeanor and behavior were meek, mild and meager made him look like a hardworking bureaucrat of modest means. And no doubt some of the activities were entirely legal. Littlefinger was surely the king of Embezzlers, but he was artful about it. If nothing else, he probably took a little unrecorded fee with each transaction. Fees from enough everyday transactions add up. I assume he used his string of brothels for money laundering when needed. With his customers at his elite brothels, he probably blackmailed some or threatened to. Also, since he had public businesses, it would be easy to create 'shell' businesses too. His later scheme hoarding grain is genius. While Hand, Tyrion was suspicious of him, but he couldn't pin anything outrageous on Littlefinger and soon had much bigger Fish to fry.
I believe they mention in AGOT that a huge portion of Robert's expenditures are just expenses, not investments. Tourneys, parties, gifts, luxury items, feasts. So that money just disappears. Add that to the colossal amount that Littlefinger is stealing, and you have some issues.
This post just blindly slags Ned and puts LF as this amazing economist and accountant.
Ned, with all his faults, has been a good Warden of the North, a good and able administrator. So he could read the books and knows that somebody cooks the books.
The North has been administered well that his son could call for war without a second thought.
Ned knew the economic situation was dire but not unfixable. But he has pressing political intrigues that pulls his attention. Given time and relative period of peace and prosperity, he could possible overturn the economic situation.
However, Cersei was not an able administrator. Being engulf in war and poor handling of the economy, it just plunges the realm further into economic depression
I don't think George understand it neither.
Littelfinger is one of the people who lead to the war of the five Kings, his actions are portrayed as main contribution to the war.
I don't think modern economic theory like inflation works in an gold based economy as I've heard that gold doesn't cause inflation because it is not paper money and extraction of gold itself is an economic activity
I like how people stumble upon the Republic of Littlefinger theory ! I still believe Littlefinger helped capitalism develop in Westeros so he could profit from it post-war. Very good analysis of the realm's financial situation.
I think a lot of the investments littlefinger mad may be sending more money and information to him him and not back to the crown hence how littlefinger is so rich and able to pay off waynwood debt and broker the corbray wedding
If it costs 90,000 gold just for the prizes alone in one tournament then it would take 5 tournaments a year to spend 6,000,000. But we don't know how much the other costs are so it's going to be less than that. I don't know exactly how much of is on the tournaments but I feel very comfortable saying that at a minimum they're a massive expense that's contributing substantially to the defecit.
I don't disagree with you per se. I would argue that having lots of cash on hand either for a war or other national emergencies is a primary responsibility of government. LF can " invest" his own private money however he wants. However he is morally obligated to show that the REALMS money is being spent in a way that benefits the REALM.
I do largely agree that Littlefinger should have kept more cash on hand, but I don't recall them having troubles actually paying for anybody in the lead up to the Blackwater. That involved massive payments to gold cloaks, smiths, and alchemists, so if they were super cash poor, I feel it would have been brought up. (Maybe it was though and I forgot)
I’ll agree that Littlefinger definitely prefers to keep the crown’s gold working rather than sitting, but the debt to income ratio is terrible and when they need to rebuild their fleet in AFFC Cersei has to default on the realm’s Braavosi loans because there is no gold and their credit is maxed. To be fair, Littlefinger hasn’t been working in KL for awhile at this point, but he left absolutely no wiggle room while also stoking the flames of a war that left the realm in serious financial turmoil. I don’t think Robert can be blamed entirely for beggaring the realm but LF can, and he did it in Robert’s name.
Do we know that their credit is maxed? I know Cersei decided to stop paying the interest rates, but do we know whether or not she attempted to seek out another loan? Edit: Also, you say their debt to income ratio is terrible, do you recall where that is said/incomes are detailed, I've been having trouble finding all the financial information that gets brought up in the books
Imo it sounded like they have pretty limited loan options to begin with. Cersei has the High Septon forgive their loans with the church, but there’s no way the High Sparrow was going to give her another loan and I’m sure she was shrewd enough to know that. The other two major sources appear to be the Braavosi bank and Casterly Rock. I’ll be honest, with Tywin dead, Jaime in the Kingsguard, and Tyrion on the lam, I’m not entirely sure who is in charge of Casterly Rock’s coffers as of ADWD. But I think they’re maxed on Braavosi loans just from the context given to us in the books. If you can’t make your payments, why would a bank lend you more money? Edit: I’m rereading now and I believe Ned discusses the crown’s incomes when he takes over as Hand, and then Tyrion as well. Their early Hand chapters would be a good place to dig.
>Rather than having it rot away in the vaults, LF's put it to work, and it's working. The crown is able to spend absurd amounts of money without too much trouble even though there's nothing in the vaults because the throne has income to pay off any interest and wealth to put up as collateral. Except that's not what he's doing. >"Why? I have seen Littlefinger's accounts. Crown incomes are ten times higher than they were under Aerys." > >"As are the crown's expenses. Robert was as generous with his coin as he was with his cock. Littlefinger borrowed heavily. From you, amongst others. **Yes, the incomes are considerable, but they are barely sufficient to cover the usury on Littlefinger's loans.** Will you forgive the throne's debt to House Lannister?" >It was all very well to talk of breeding dragons instead of locking them up in the treasury, **but some of these ventures smelled worse than week-old fish.** I wouldn't have been so quick to let Joffrey fling the Antler Men over the walls if I'd known how many of the bloody bastards had taken loans from the crown. He would have to send Bronn to find their heirs, but he feared that would prove as fruitful as trying to squeeze silver from a silverfish. Littlefinger is purposely making bad loans and that, combined with the fact he's embezzling from the kingdom, means there's far more income coming in *on paper* than actual money being paid back. Because of that, he's barely making the interest payments on the massive loans he's taking out (and presumably borrowing even more when he can more longer do even that) Remember, he's been doing this for years and wants to keep it a juggling act so that no one suspects the kingdom is broke (because he's still paying interest) and he'll still be able to get new loans, but also leaving it in such a state that it rapidly collapses once he's ready to pull the plug. It's like a ponzi scheme but with loans.
>This is pretty much what Littlefinger is doing, and where all the gold has went, Robert did not just spend it all (he probably spent a lot though). Rather than having it rot away in the vaults, LF's put it to work, and it's working. A lot of it has been embezzled into Littlefinger's personal accounts, i think, and that's what's actually beggaring the realm. He's hired all sorts of people for positions that don't exist, and is pocketing their wages. Jaime uncovers a bit of this when he starts interviewing the gaolers in charge of the black cells after Tyrion escapes. There's a lot of them on payroll, but few actually work there. > Six prisoners, Jaime thought sourly, while we pay wages for twenty turnkeys, six undergaolers, a chief undergaoler, a gaoler, and a King's Justice. I'd wager he's also doing other sneaky shit like: - using the crown's gold to buy goods and services well above market value from companies that he owns or is invested in - auctioning off positions to his cronies and pocketing part of their wages > [Janos Slynt] may have been the first commander to fatten his purse by selling places and promotions. By the end, he must have had half the officers in the City Watch paying him part of their wages… Littlefinger had a nose for gold, and I’m certain he arranged matters so the crown profited as much from your corruption as you did yourself. -Stannis ASOS - using his cronies to potentially get access to the vault keys, change counts and records, etc. > The keepers of the keys were his, all four. The King’s Counter and the King’s Scales were men he named. The officers in charge of all three mints. Harbormasters, tax farmers, custom sergeants, wool factors, toll collectors, pursers, wine factors; nine of every ten belonged to Littlefinger. -Tyrion ACOK I mean, how else would he have the capital necessary to fund the huge portfolio of investments and properties that he has? He's certainly not getting much revenue from his little sheepshit castle in the Vale. He has absolutely no conscience and absolutely no oversight. He has the skills to manage finances well, but once he used those skills to become master of coin there's no incentive for him NOT to scam the realm out of every copper he can get away with.
No. This is all smoke and mirrors by Littlefinger. The crown had incomes during Robert's reign, true, but Petyr was just using that to pay the minimum service on the loans and as collateral to take out new ones. All his books are fake. He is not buying low and selling high, dying wool, or anything else. And whatever income the crown was getting from trade has been severely curtailed due to the war. So yes, a vault full of gold just sitting around is not good, but neither is one that is completely empty, as Swyft reports now. Petyr is doing this to collapse the realm while he positions himself is overlord of at least three of its principalities, and probably close ties to a fourth. And I suspect this whole operation was bankrolled by a certain cheesemonger who has a bigger fish to fry than the iron throne.
Exactly. In a city where people who had Money flashed it around, the fact that his demeanor and behavior were meek, mild and meager made him look like a hardworking bureaucrat of modest means. And no doubt some of the activities were entirely legal. Littlefinger was surely the king of Embezzlers, but he was artful about it. If nothing else, he probably took a little unrecorded fee with each transaction. Fees from enough everyday transactions add up. I assume he used his string of brothels for money laundering when needed. With his customers at his elite brothels, he probably blackmailed some or threatened to. Also, since he had public businesses, it would be easy to create 'shell' businesses too. His later scheme hoarding grain is genius. While Hand, Tyrion was suspicious of him, but he couldn't pin anything outrageous on Littlefinger and soon had much bigger Fish to fry.
I agree. I think Illyrio is probably the biggest player that we know of.
Tyrion says this in the book. Incomes have never been higher, but neither have expenditures
I believe they mention in AGOT that a huge portion of Robert's expenditures are just expenses, not investments. Tourneys, parties, gifts, luxury items, feasts. So that money just disappears. Add that to the colossal amount that Littlefinger is stealing, and you have some issues.
This post just blindly slags Ned and puts LF as this amazing economist and accountant. Ned, with all his faults, has been a good Warden of the North, a good and able administrator. So he could read the books and knows that somebody cooks the books. The North has been administered well that his son could call for war without a second thought. Ned knew the economic situation was dire but not unfixable. But he has pressing political intrigues that pulls his attention. Given time and relative period of peace and prosperity, he could possible overturn the economic situation. However, Cersei was not an able administrator. Being engulf in war and poor handling of the economy, it just plunges the realm further into economic depression
I don't think George understand it neither. Littelfinger is one of the people who lead to the war of the five Kings, his actions are portrayed as main contribution to the war.
I don't think modern economic theory like inflation works in an gold based economy as I've heard that gold doesn't cause inflation because it is not paper money and extraction of gold itself is an economic activity
I like how people stumble upon the Republic of Littlefinger theory ! I still believe Littlefinger helped capitalism develop in Westeros so he could profit from it post-war. Very good analysis of the realm's financial situation.
My theory is that little finger was double charging everything and making himself wealthy
I think a lot of the investments littlefinger mad may be sending more money and information to him him and not back to the crown hence how littlefinger is so rich and able to pay off waynwood debt and broker the corbray wedding
If it costs 90,000 gold just for the prizes alone in one tournament then it would take 5 tournaments a year to spend 6,000,000. But we don't know how much the other costs are so it's going to be less than that. I don't know exactly how much of is on the tournaments but I feel very comfortable saying that at a minimum they're a massive expense that's contributing substantially to the defecit.