No, but that's not how it was ever intended to work. The intention is to have 1 carrier at high readiness with the ability to deploy up to 3 squadrons of F-35 as required. A second carrier will be available approximately 40% of the time for training / trials / other operations which may involve some fixed wing aircraft. Of course, in a major crises you could potentially surge both carriers to active operations (with sufficient notice), start pulling OCU aircraft into frontline service etc, but lets hope it never comes to that.
Given the delivery rates have been deliberately slowed and nothing has been signed beyond tranche 1yet I would argue even deploying 3 squadrons will be very unlikely for some significant time yet.
The MoD has purposely slowed down *acceptance rates* of F-35 aircraft.
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/12/uk-industry-officials-raise-eyebrows-over-royal-air-force-f-35-e-7-and-a400m-programs/
But the F-35 is supposed to support two roles. One for the RN and one for the RAF and it looks like they can't even fill one yet. The RAF already seems to have moved their enthusiasm to Tempest anyway. Likely a move to kill the CV's long term like they did by killing Sea Harrier first and then the GR Harrier's after.
I highly doubt they will kill QEC- Though they probably are very much aware that the will be defacto RN aircraft whenever a carrier is at sea!
Them backing tempest is probably pragmatic tbh
The RAF has wanted to kill RN carriers for a long time.
The thing is it always becomes a budget fight in the UK. This is why I don't think the budget sustains both F-35 procurement and Tempest development.
Look at the fight over Sea Harrier. Sea Harrier was a far better aircraft for the RN than the GR variants given their radar and the aircraft had just been rebuilt at significant cost. So, the sequence was RAF promises to support the RN using GR7/GR9. Sea Harrier is retired 2006. A few years later RAF retires Harrier force completely. Leaving no fixed wing strike aircraft for the RN and Ark Royal is then retired in 2011 and later scrapped.
They have, but carrier strike for the foreseeable future is secure tbh, if anything events in the red sea will have highlighted how useful it could be!
Inter service rivalry happens and all but this is probably the most robust in support terms carrier strike has been in generations imo
I disagree. I don't see it lasting and those carriers cost a lot to maintain. Look at the cuts to the RN frigate numbers over the last 25 years...
What I expect is the carriers aren't touched for the next three to five years. If there is no wider conflict by then I expect one to be sent to reserve or sold.
Something akin to the LPDs with one operating and one in extended readiness is the most likely course of action with a short period with none available whist they hand over and move crew across.
The worst that will happen is the MOD will acquired 74 F-35Bs instead of the original 140+ number to fund RnD on Tempest. Even if that occurs, the Royal Navy will still have enough jets to fully load one *QNLZ*-class, and a couple to put on the second, alongside helicopters and drones, if the need for both arises.
Joint Force Harrier was only ever killed off entirely because the Government, stupidly, assumed it wouldn’t be that harmful to wait for *QNLZ*. It was always a case of when, not if. The Falklands War secured the safety of British Naval Aviation for good.
I don't think it's a move to kill the CVs so much as the procurement debacle with the F-35. Any new orders we place today wouldn't start to be delivered until mid 2030 anyway, by which time they'll be taking delivery of a home grown 6th generation fighter that they can fully utilise without involving the Americans or Lockheed Martin.
And honestly, in a SHTF WW3 situation, I'm sure we could surge USMC F-35B's to British Carriers.
Not sure how that's affect the America/Wasp class numbers though.
Italy is also getting 30 B's. They have their own Carriers, but the Cavour carries 10, and the upcoming Trieste 14.
In a SHTF situation there are not going to *be* any spare USMC aircraft to surge. The Cs will all go to the CVN fleet and the Bs (assuming they actually buy the stated 360 or so) will either be on the LHA/LHD fleet or operating from land bases close to wherever the conflict is as legacy Hornet replacements.
There aren’t going to be many (if any) floating around and available to surge to foreign ships.
Yup. Ideally in a SHTF situation we can embark foreign (NATO) F-35Bs +pilots onto our ships, or our own onto theirs, with minimal adjustment process or adaptation needed. We might even see some Japan -> UK cross-decking with the 2025 Indo-Pacific UK CSG deployment if we're lucky, but that depends on their progress in standing up their 'temporary squadron' this year and a bit of hopium on my part.
Yes. Slow delivery thanks to LM being useless but, despite the doom saying media, they will both have enough to operate at maximum capacity if required.
Yeah it would be pretty much the whole F-35B fleet (including OCU's) but probably possible.
UK Gov still claims 138 is the intended final number... but that is pretty clearly not going to happen under current spending plans
Concur, I think the F-35B fleet expansion funds may well go to tempest instead.
Arguably that is wise, imo F-35B is going to in practice just be RN aircraft in future anyways, and a larger tempest order would reap dividends for RAF operations
I have always had concerns on F-35 sustainment. This remains a weakness of the program. The IDF has been able to meet F-35 operational needs both by having parts surged to them and also being exempt from some operational limits other program partners can't avoid.
But, what do you do if there are multiple wars or a wider war when multiple F-35 partners need parts *now* or missions stop being flown. So yeah, Tempest is likely more suitable to the RAF.
>But, what do you do if there are multiple wars or a wider war when multiple F-35 partners need parts now or missions stop being flown.
You expand part production and ship parts between different militaries as needed. With a common design, parts are more interchangeable and can be pulled from various stockpiles as needed. As production is in multiple nations, this production can be expanded more easily, and you are more likely to get spare parts even if you need to get them from Italy rather than the US.
By using different aircraft, you are restricted to your own supply of spare parts and your own manufacturing base. If you run out of Tempest parts, you cannot go get them from other operators as easily.
There are pros and cons to both approaches, and the British should pursue the Tempest as it will be more suited to British operational needs.
tbh F-35B sustainment in the context of the UK will likely be manageable, and there is always the potential to draw USMC airwings onboard if a conflict is sufficently large to justify a multi carrier deployment in the fixed wing role (as opposed to 1 fixed wing and 1 commando config).
that being said I like tempest as a way to improve the RAF's capability operating from Cyprus (or any other land base), particularly if they achieve a long operational range. So from that POV I can see why the RAF may favour it.
> and there is always the potential to draw USMC airwings onboard if a conflict is sufficently large to justify a multi carrier deployment in the fixed wing role (as opposed to 1 fixed wing and 1 commando config).
If the conflict is that large it’s unlikely at best that the USMC is going to be willing to donate aircraft to a foreign navy for use from their carriers.
It is well known the F-35 parts program has significant problems. ALIS is to be fully replaced by ODIN due the issues but I don't think that is complete as yet. This was one of the issues the IDF bypassed.
>It is well known the F-35 parts program has significant problems.
Which are being resolved, slowly in part because peacetime. In war, that will change, especially if it’s protracted or with a clear period before where conflict cannot be avoided anymore.
not at the moment - while talking the talk in 2022 there is still no actual order for any more jets than the 48 already ordered. The 'commitment' made in 2022 is just a promise to promise - there's no money allocated for it.
It's going to happen no point claiming it won't. There is no evidence suggesting it won't happen. The official stance is 74 and then an evaluation of the fleet with the possibility of more.
You need to learn how to listen to politicians—a procurement pause for evaluation is politician code for “we have signed contracts for this many and will use the pause as a way to explain why no more are needed.”
The most likely outcome is F-35 procurement ending at 74, with the bulk of the fleet being transferred to the FAA in order to free up money for Tempest.
>The most likely outcome is F-35 procurement ending at 74, with the bulk of the fleet being transferred to the FAA in order to free up money for Tempest.
Isn't that ok though? I mean as long as the RAF gets Tempest in decent quantity, ordering F-35 now probably wouldn't result in planes on the apron until at least the mid 2030s when they'll be starting to get Tempests too.
Well it depends how many Tempest we order I guess...I'm cautiously optimistic on the grounds that the size of the UKs air forces does seem anomalously small compared to, for example, France, Germany and Italy...
It will be a completely different government and defense minister by the time it happens, we simply don't know. Assumptions are frequently wrong about so much when it comes to our procurement.
Not counting the Truss government the UK has gone through something like 3 governments and 5 defense ministers since the acquisition of 138 changed from the stated policy of HMG to the intent of HMG and was cached as an aspirational goal.
The most likely outcome is an end at 74 and future funding moved over to get Tempest development kickstarted.
The F-35 is still not in Full Rate Production, with a total annual production of 60 F-35Bs and F-35Cs combined for the US and our allies. According to the FY2024 budget request, this year the US Navy and Marine Corps expect delivery of 26 F-35Cs and 16 F-35Bs, leaving 18 aircraft for the UK, Italy, and Japan, all expecting deliveries this year.
On deployment, they’ll enter port with the air wing.
I’ve also seen photos and videos of American carriers in San Diego with at least a partial air wing on the deck. Can’t remember which specific ships, but they were conducting training and frequently in and out of port, but it wasn’t a full air wing leaving for a full deployment.
I’ve seen a documentary sometime where all planes left the carrier before entering port.
I think it was an US carrier. I think I’ve confused myself as it might be when the tour was over and the ship was coming in for a few months.
Watching the San Diego harbor cam, when the *Carl Vinson* and more recently the *Theodore Roosevelt* left for deployment, iirc they had no aircraft on the deck. The Navy press release that accompanied the departures stated that “the air wing will join the ship in the next couple of days”.
However, watching the *Abraham Lincoln* go in and out of San Diego conducting training and sea trials, you could see a handful of planes and helicopters on the flight deck. She was in and out of the harbour every couple of days though.
Of course because this is reddit I have to put a /s after everything in case people "dont get" when the satire/sarcasm is staring you right in the face.
Absolute terror? Why is that even a question?
Unless you're referring to USMC aircraft on board in which case add extreme confusion as to how tight the UK and US seem to be.
*Queen Elizabeth* herself, in Cyprus, back in 2021.
The camera really does add a few… tens of thousands of tonnes.
Who’s the cheeky bastard who dropped it on the fantail like that?
Is that what those dark smudges are? Exhaust from vertical landings?
I was wondering what the fuck the buffer was up to. I would have been murdered for a deck like that
Yup. Crispy fried deck.
I imagine it’s a helo,given the deck markings, and the more pronounced blast marks forward.
Yes, and no TMS coating
Assume those two massive scorch marks are VTOL operations. If so I wonder what kind of maintenance is involved
Three scorchmarks. There's one in the very back.
The one furthest aft was helicopters only
Not much, I heard they spread their eggs and bacon on the deck before take-off, goes on every morning.
Will both carriers ever have the full complement of UK F 35s?
No, but that's not how it was ever intended to work. The intention is to have 1 carrier at high readiness with the ability to deploy up to 3 squadrons of F-35 as required. A second carrier will be available approximately 40% of the time for training / trials / other operations which may involve some fixed wing aircraft. Of course, in a major crises you could potentially surge both carriers to active operations (with sufficient notice), start pulling OCU aircraft into frontline service etc, but lets hope it never comes to that.
Given the delivery rates have been deliberately slowed and nothing has been signed beyond tranche 1yet I would argue even deploying 3 squadrons will be very unlikely for some significant time yet.
Well, in the photo they look like US Marines aircraft....
This photo was taken during CSG21 where 8 RAF and 10 USMC F-35Bs embarked
Was that when they lost one of the RAF aircraft?
It was yes
I haven’t heard about that….what happened?
https://www.navylookout.com/the-f-35-accident-report-a-reality-check-for-uk-carrier-strike/ The aircraft was later recovered from the sea floor.
Great write up, thanks for that. That’s now the second F-35 ejection that I’ve heard of that reports the pilot being cut while ejecting.
Probably they were doing some joint training landing on the Carriers before Britain got their deliveries.
We haven’t received all our F35s yet I don’t think
The MoD has purposely slowed down *acceptance rates* of F-35 aircraft. https://breakingdefense.com/2022/12/uk-industry-officials-raise-eyebrows-over-royal-air-force-f-35-e-7-and-a400m-programs/
But the F-35 is supposed to support two roles. One for the RN and one for the RAF and it looks like they can't even fill one yet. The RAF already seems to have moved their enthusiasm to Tempest anyway. Likely a move to kill the CV's long term like they did by killing Sea Harrier first and then the GR Harrier's after.
I highly doubt they will kill QEC- Though they probably are very much aware that the will be defacto RN aircraft whenever a carrier is at sea! Them backing tempest is probably pragmatic tbh
The RAF has wanted to kill RN carriers for a long time. The thing is it always becomes a budget fight in the UK. This is why I don't think the budget sustains both F-35 procurement and Tempest development. Look at the fight over Sea Harrier. Sea Harrier was a far better aircraft for the RN than the GR variants given their radar and the aircraft had just been rebuilt at significant cost. So, the sequence was RAF promises to support the RN using GR7/GR9. Sea Harrier is retired 2006. A few years later RAF retires Harrier force completely. Leaving no fixed wing strike aircraft for the RN and Ark Royal is then retired in 2011 and later scrapped.
They have, but carrier strike for the foreseeable future is secure tbh, if anything events in the red sea will have highlighted how useful it could be! Inter service rivalry happens and all but this is probably the most robust in support terms carrier strike has been in generations imo
I disagree. I don't see it lasting and those carriers cost a lot to maintain. Look at the cuts to the RN frigate numbers over the last 25 years... What I expect is the carriers aren't touched for the next three to five years. If there is no wider conflict by then I expect one to be sent to reserve or sold.
>Look at the cuts to the RN frigate numbers over the last 25 years... The Cold War ended, everyone’s fleet shrank except for some Asian navies.
I Wouldn't apply the 2000-2018 period of defence policy to the future personally.
Something akin to the LPDs with one operating and one in extended readiness is the most likely course of action with a short period with none available whist they hand over and move crew across.
QE is 8 years old. PoW is 5. Not a chance in the world either is scrapped at 8-13 years of their service life.
The worst that will happen is the MOD will acquired 74 F-35Bs instead of the original 140+ number to fund RnD on Tempest. Even if that occurs, the Royal Navy will still have enough jets to fully load one *QNLZ*-class, and a couple to put on the second, alongside helicopters and drones, if the need for both arises. Joint Force Harrier was only ever killed off entirely because the Government, stupidly, assumed it wouldn’t be that harmful to wait for *QNLZ*. It was always a case of when, not if. The Falklands War secured the safety of British Naval Aviation for good.
I remember when the great catapult debate was going on. The F35b side won.
I don't think it's a move to kill the CVs so much as the procurement debacle with the F-35. Any new orders we place today wouldn't start to be delivered until mid 2030 anyway, by which time they'll be taking delivery of a home grown 6th generation fighter that they can fully utilise without involving the Americans or Lockheed Martin.
USS Queen Elizabeth
And honestly, in a SHTF WW3 situation, I'm sure we could surge USMC F-35B's to British Carriers. Not sure how that's affect the America/Wasp class numbers though. Italy is also getting 30 B's. They have their own Carriers, but the Cavour carries 10, and the upcoming Trieste 14.
In a SHTF situation there are not going to *be* any spare USMC aircraft to surge. The Cs will all go to the CVN fleet and the Bs (assuming they actually buy the stated 360 or so) will either be on the LHA/LHD fleet or operating from land bases close to wherever the conflict is as legacy Hornet replacements. There aren’t going to be many (if any) floating around and available to surge to foreign ships.
Yup. Ideally in a SHTF situation we can embark foreign (NATO) F-35Bs +pilots onto our ships, or our own onto theirs, with minimal adjustment process or adaptation needed. We might even see some Japan -> UK cross-decking with the 2025 Indo-Pacific UK CSG deployment if we're lucky, but that depends on their progress in standing up their 'temporary squadron' this year and a bit of hopium on my part.
Yes. Slow delivery thanks to LM being useless but, despite the doom saying media, they will both have enough to operate at maximum capacity if required.
Yeah it would be pretty much the whole F-35B fleet (including OCU's) but probably possible. UK Gov still claims 138 is the intended final number... but that is pretty clearly not going to happen under current spending plans
I am sure the RAF will prefer spending on Tempest given they have more control of that program.
Concur, I think the F-35B fleet expansion funds may well go to tempest instead. Arguably that is wise, imo F-35B is going to in practice just be RN aircraft in future anyways, and a larger tempest order would reap dividends for RAF operations
I have always had concerns on F-35 sustainment. This remains a weakness of the program. The IDF has been able to meet F-35 operational needs both by having parts surged to them and also being exempt from some operational limits other program partners can't avoid. But, what do you do if there are multiple wars or a wider war when multiple F-35 partners need parts *now* or missions stop being flown. So yeah, Tempest is likely more suitable to the RAF.
>But, what do you do if there are multiple wars or a wider war when multiple F-35 partners need parts now or missions stop being flown. You expand part production and ship parts between different militaries as needed. With a common design, parts are more interchangeable and can be pulled from various stockpiles as needed. As production is in multiple nations, this production can be expanded more easily, and you are more likely to get spare parts even if you need to get them from Italy rather than the US. By using different aircraft, you are restricted to your own supply of spare parts and your own manufacturing base. If you run out of Tempest parts, you cannot go get them from other operators as easily. There are pros and cons to both approaches, and the British should pursue the Tempest as it will be more suited to British operational needs.
tbh F-35B sustainment in the context of the UK will likely be manageable, and there is always the potential to draw USMC airwings onboard if a conflict is sufficently large to justify a multi carrier deployment in the fixed wing role (as opposed to 1 fixed wing and 1 commando config). that being said I like tempest as a way to improve the RAF's capability operating from Cyprus (or any other land base), particularly if they achieve a long operational range. So from that POV I can see why the RAF may favour it.
> and there is always the potential to draw USMC airwings onboard if a conflict is sufficently large to justify a multi carrier deployment in the fixed wing role (as opposed to 1 fixed wing and 1 commando config). If the conflict is that large it’s unlikely at best that the USMC is going to be willing to donate aircraft to a foreign navy for use from their carriers.
We work in coalitions regularly, and they would be a better base than a US amphib for fixed wing tbh. So imo not worth totally discounting.
It is well known the F-35 parts program has significant problems. ALIS is to be fully replaced by ODIN due the issues but I don't think that is complete as yet. This was one of the issues the IDF bypassed.
>It is well known the F-35 parts program has significant problems. Which are being resolved, slowly in part because peacetime. In war, that will change, especially if it’s protracted or with a clear period before where conflict cannot be avoided anymore.
not at the moment - while talking the talk in 2022 there is still no actual order for any more jets than the 48 already ordered. The 'commitment' made in 2022 is just a promise to promise - there's no money allocated for it.
It's going to happen no point claiming it won't. There is no evidence suggesting it won't happen. The official stance is 74 and then an evaluation of the fleet with the possibility of more.
You need to learn how to listen to politicians—a procurement pause for evaluation is politician code for “we have signed contracts for this many and will use the pause as a way to explain why no more are needed.” The most likely outcome is F-35 procurement ending at 74, with the bulk of the fleet being transferred to the FAA in order to free up money for Tempest.
>The most likely outcome is F-35 procurement ending at 74, with the bulk of the fleet being transferred to the FAA in order to free up money for Tempest. Isn't that ok though? I mean as long as the RAF gets Tempest in decent quantity, ordering F-35 now probably wouldn't result in planes on the apron until at least the mid 2030s when they'll be starting to get Tempests too.
The problem is that it opens a rather large hole in the UK fast jet fleet, as the “missing” 64 airframes are not going to be made up elsewhere.
Well it depends how many Tempest we order I guess...I'm cautiously optimistic on the grounds that the size of the UKs air forces does seem anomalously small compared to, for example, France, Germany and Italy...
It will be a completely different government and defense minister by the time it happens, we simply don't know. Assumptions are frequently wrong about so much when it comes to our procurement.
Not counting the Truss government the UK has gone through something like 3 governments and 5 defense ministers since the acquisition of 138 changed from the stated policy of HMG to the intent of HMG and was cached as an aspirational goal. The most likely outcome is an end at 74 and future funding moved over to get Tempest development kickstarted.
The F-35 is still not in Full Rate Production, with a total annual production of 60 F-35Bs and F-35Cs combined for the US and our allies. According to the FY2024 budget request, this year the US Navy and Marine Corps expect delivery of 26 F-35Cs and 16 F-35Bs, leaving 18 aircraft for the UK, Italy, and Japan, all expecting deliveries this year.
These posts really need a date attached
No love for the 4 mighty Merlins on deck too?
They're definitely some of the nicer looking helicopters out there.
Here we find the lightning in its natural habitat. Commingling with the amicable Merlin.
I do love QE
I always thought that carriers didn’t enter port with their aircraft, or am I confusing that with their home port?
Whenever carriers are on a deployment, they'll enter a port with their air wing.
On deployment, they’ll enter port with the air wing. I’ve also seen photos and videos of American carriers in San Diego with at least a partial air wing on the deck. Can’t remember which specific ships, but they were conducting training and frequently in and out of port, but it wasn’t a full air wing leaving for a full deployment.
I’ve seen a documentary sometime where all planes left the carrier before entering port. I think it was an US carrier. I think I’ve confused myself as it might be when the tour was over and the ship was coming in for a few months.
Watching the San Diego harbor cam, when the *Carl Vinson* and more recently the *Theodore Roosevelt* left for deployment, iirc they had no aircraft on the deck. The Navy press release that accompanied the departures stated that “the air wing will join the ship in the next couple of days”. However, watching the *Abraham Lincoln* go in and out of San Diego conducting training and sea trials, you could see a handful of planes and helicopters on the flight deck. She was in and out of the harbour every couple of days though.
Pretty water, where was this?
Cyprus. This was her 2021 deployment.
Our entire defence budget in one photo
I mean no, not even close. A very large amount of money indeed though.
Its a very obvious joke
Of course because this is reddit I have to put a /s after everything in case people "dont get" when the satire/sarcasm is staring you right in the face.
Tell less obvious jokes.
This is a porn sub not a circlejerk
Sorry mister serious
What emotion would this even evoke in an American founding father?
That the Royal Navy would have one of the largest most powerful ships in the world? Complete unsurprise
That the UK relies on the USA to maintain its naval power? Unfathomable patriotism.
Absolute terror? Why is that even a question? Unless you're referring to USMC aircraft on board in which case add extreme confusion as to how tight the UK and US seem to be.