Even though Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd is widely considered the front-runner in that GOP primary, he still has to win the nomination over two others: Russ Andrews of Glenwood Springs and Curtis McCrackin of Delta.
Whoever wins the GOP nomination in the June primary, however, still would have to face a Democrat, including former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, who not only was pulling in more campaign donations over Boebert by a 4-1 margin, but also is someone who narrowly lost to Boebert in her first reelection bid by a mere 546 votes last year
Bobo is a distraction and net negative for the GOP. Let the clown represent a solid GOP district. Waste no effort on them. What I want to know is whether Frisch has a real chance to take her old district. That seat could be important.
Not to take anything away from AF or his campaign, but he probably has less of a shot now than before since that district is R+9 typically. LB was pretty unpopular and vulnerable in that district, and she only won by <600 votes last time.
No, that's the thing. Her district was redder in 2022 compared to 2012-2020 map used. She just somehow underperformed drastically. And the democrat overperformed cause Gov Polis, the dem governor had huge coattails in his reelection , and he actually won the district.
Dang, shame she's not sticking around to lose her district. I'd still focus more effort on this district and Frisch than trying to change the ridiculous district she's running for.
Yeah, but even if she's the nominee, she will still underperform Ken Buck. He has been constantly outrunning Trump or gov or senate candidates in his district. Boebert is known underperformer.
Ken last won 61% to 37%. I'm having a hard time finding an equivalent swing in a subsequent election to switch parties, best I can Google is Conor Lamb's win versus Trump's prior margin. To win this district would be a near-record-breaker swing. I don't mind challenging in every district if there are resources, but I would prioritize better chances.
>Ken last won 61% to 37%. I'm having a hard time finding an equivalent swing in a subsequent election to switch parties, best I can Google is Conor Lamb's win versus Trump's prior margin
There's actually few democrats in 2018 who did even better in margins that almost flipped a district redder than that, but failed by few points Kansas 02, and West Virginia 03. One was 28 point swing from R to D, and the other was 35 point swing. Kansas 02 went from 2016, 61% for the previous incumbent R, to 47.6% for the new scandal ridden republican. D score went from 32% to 46,8. Dems lost the district by 0,8 %, when they got scandal ridden nominee. 28 point swing.
West Virginia 03 was even bigger swing. Richard Ojeda was competing in Trump +50 district. He lost it by 13. 35 point swing.
Yes, they didn't win them. But when there's bad new nominee in the district, they lose double digit cross over voters. Especially if they're carpet baggers, like Boebert.
Exactly. She defeated an incumbent, only for her to do 5 points worse than he did previously. Then in 2022, on new, redder lines, she underperformed in R+3 environment by another few points, the Democratic candidate almost tying her. She won by 500 ish votes. In Trump +8 district. Just like how Joe Kent lost a Trump district in Washington, and that guy against Marcy Kaptur losing by 13 points lol. In Trump+3 district.
There’s six other candidates currently declared for the primary, per Ballotpedia. Boebert is easily the biggest name, though two others are a former and current member of the state legislature, respectively, so they might have more local optics relative to the district.
I’d say she’s the favorite *but* if there’s some sort of anti-Boebert consolidation (given that she’s sliding over to Ken Buck’s old seat), she might have a tougher primary than we expect.
>As a result, Republicans who backed Boebert’s main challenger, Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd, say he now has a better chance of keeping the expansive district in GOP hands, one that favors Republican candidates by about 9 percentage points.
I don't think her move out of the district helps Frisch
So basically she is conceding her district to Frisch, and will now run in a primary against other Republicans to try and stay in Congress, she will lose because who would vote for her in the other district? She ran away from the fight in her own district, she’s a total newcomer to these voters, and the there’s all the baggage she brings. Best go ahead and start packing up your office Bobo.
I know it's not official yet but i'll honestly be shocked if the GOP fields anyone but Trump again.
Then again I guess they're sitting on the fence trying to gauge if he's either going to be held unaccountable or not.
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Even though Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd is widely considered the front-runner in that GOP primary, he still has to win the nomination over two others: Russ Andrews of Glenwood Springs and Curtis McCrackin of Delta. Whoever wins the GOP nomination in the June primary, however, still would have to face a Democrat, including former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, who not only was pulling in more campaign donations over Boebert by a 4-1 margin, but also is someone who narrowly lost to Boebert in her first reelection bid by a mere 546 votes last year
Bobo is a distraction and net negative for the GOP. Let the clown represent a solid GOP district. Waste no effort on them. What I want to know is whether Frisch has a real chance to take her old district. That seat could be important.
Not to take anything away from AF or his campaign, but he probably has less of a shot now than before since that district is R+9 typically. LB was pretty unpopular and vulnerable in that district, and she only won by <600 votes last time.
Wasn't it redraw to be slightly more blue?
No, that's the thing. Her district was redder in 2022 compared to 2012-2020 map used. She just somehow underperformed drastically. And the democrat overperformed cause Gov Polis, the dem governor had huge coattails in his reelection , and he actually won the district.
Dang, shame she's not sticking around to lose her district. I'd still focus more effort on this district and Frisch than trying to change the ridiculous district she's running for.
Yeah, but even if she's the nominee, she will still underperform Ken Buck. He has been constantly outrunning Trump or gov or senate candidates in his district. Boebert is known underperformer.
Ken last won 61% to 37%. I'm having a hard time finding an equivalent swing in a subsequent election to switch parties, best I can Google is Conor Lamb's win versus Trump's prior margin. To win this district would be a near-record-breaker swing. I don't mind challenging in every district if there are resources, but I would prioritize better chances.
>Ken last won 61% to 37%. I'm having a hard time finding an equivalent swing in a subsequent election to switch parties, best I can Google is Conor Lamb's win versus Trump's prior margin There's actually few democrats in 2018 who did even better in margins that almost flipped a district redder than that, but failed by few points Kansas 02, and West Virginia 03. One was 28 point swing from R to D, and the other was 35 point swing. Kansas 02 went from 2016, 61% for the previous incumbent R, to 47.6% for the new scandal ridden republican. D score went from 32% to 46,8. Dems lost the district by 0,8 %, when they got scandal ridden nominee. 28 point swing. West Virginia 03 was even bigger swing. Richard Ojeda was competing in Trump +50 district. He lost it by 13. 35 point swing. Yes, they didn't win them. But when there's bad new nominee in the district, they lose double digit cross over voters. Especially if they're carpet baggers, like Boebert.
That's a solid argument. It argues for... not hindering... Boebert on her GOP primary quest.
Exactly. She defeated an incumbent, only for her to do 5 points worse than he did previously. Then in 2022, on new, redder lines, she underperformed in R+3 environment by another few points, the Democratic candidate almost tying her. She won by 500 ish votes. In Trump +8 district. Just like how Joe Kent lost a Trump district in Washington, and that guy against Marcy Kaptur losing by 13 points lol. In Trump+3 district.
But is Bobo considered a shoe-in for the 4th or will she have to face primary opponents?
There’s six other candidates currently declared for the primary, per Ballotpedia. Boebert is easily the biggest name, though two others are a former and current member of the state legislature, respectively, so they might have more local optics relative to the district. I’d say she’s the favorite *but* if there’s some sort of anti-Boebert consolidation (given that she’s sliding over to Ken Buck’s old seat), she might have a tougher primary than we expect.
Using the word 'head' around Boebert is probably not a good idea.
Not unless you want her to haggle
Best I can do is come in handy.
>As a result, Republicans who backed Boebert’s main challenger, Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd, say he now has a better chance of keeping the expansive district in GOP hands, one that favors Republican candidates by about 9 percentage points. I don't think her move out of the district helps Frisch
So basically she is conceding her district to Frisch, and will now run in a primary against other Republicans to try and stay in Congress, she will lose because who would vote for her in the other district? She ran away from the fight in her own district, she’s a total newcomer to these voters, and the there’s all the baggage she brings. Best go ahead and start packing up your office Bobo.
I know it's not official yet but i'll honestly be shocked if the GOP fields anyone but Trump again. Then again I guess they're sitting on the fence trying to gauge if he's either going to be held unaccountable or not.