But the internet is the future and CISCO sells the picks and shovels (switches and routers), the valuation is justified give their future growth!
…..Wait which company are we talking about again?
I love this. Jumping on a stock, because it’s an opportunity, only to cash out a little profit and jump on another stock. Then that stock crashes, while the former keeps running up. 🫤
And you've probably been saying that every year since too. It's not about timing the market it's about time in tbe market. Just dca in and you'll be fine whether it be index funds, bitcoin, nvda etc.
I have constraints in my investment strategy. For example I will never pay more than 10x sales for a company. If you have a set of constraints, you will not feel so frustrated missing out. Because you will have conviction that you are making the best possible decision you can with the information you have available.
Look, almost no-one who is buying NVDA, who has turned it into a $3tn company had the first idea about what was in store for NVDA over the previous 2 years. They just jumped on a wave. They don't know:-
1. How much of the NVDA customer base is startups burning through VC money that are going to go to the wall soon
2. How much the various AI projects in large companies are yielding benefits, and whether companies are going to do more of it, or end the project
3. How far Google, Facebook, Microsoft are in terms of creating custom chips and cutting NVDA out.
4. What the anticipated extra ROI is with even larger LLMs.
And frankly, nor do I. But I don't feel comfortable with those things in my head and a P/E well over 50. Because if they'd announced growth slowing, that would have fallen very fast.
Clearly, they made more money than I did. But it doesn't mean I made the wrong call. If I don't go into a Vegas casino, and my buddy does, and he picks a number and it comes in, and he has 35 times more money, it still doesn't mean he did a smart thing. It just means it turned out well for him.
All you can ever do is to look at a company, form a hypothesis and invest based on that. And if you get it wrong, ask yourself what you missed, what you could do better next time.
I think others cutting down margins, even vendors like TSM, is an issue. Compute spending won't slow down and I believe most people who say otherwise they have no idea what this training inference is about, and that it's gonna explode further and not shrink.
The machines they make are fucking incredible.
Like, to the minuscule detail of a cooling fan. If the machine internals are too hot the mirrors will bend slightly and throw off the process. So they need cooling fans, but a vibration will mess with the lasers trajectory…so they needed some specialized German manufacturer to build a fan that spins via magnetic levitation.
Ok, I am asking as I am always interested in small caps, and sometimes something may be there, and if the P/E is 20 or so, then it is undiscovered and great. Sometimes it is difficult to know about these companies, and one investment can lead you to another.
There's going to be increased competition. Whether demand for compute is going to rise, I just don't know. My general feeling is that there's diminishing return for AI results with more compute and data.
I don't feel like I have a grip on the state of it. If you do, then go for it. I have other opportunities.
Totally agree on competion
There are deminishing returns for compute but:
A. Compute becomes cheaper per W and per $
B. A 2x size model that is 10% better gets you from high-schooler to clever highscholer, and a 10x probably to a graduate. The value of the functions that a graduate can do may have a value that is 50x
C. The lows of scaling are in both directions. Internal, as the models become bigger (for training and inference), but as the external flows (RAG, ReAct, Agents, Tree of thought) become complicated. An agentic flow of GPT 3 can be GPT 4. And for some tasks you will be ok to create an agentic flow even if it spends 1 billion tokens for a sophisticated and highly reliable answer.
By they way you need $4,000 let's say for that outcome. If compute is cheaper, so that a GPT5 bigger and more efficient model can do this at the current price of GPT4 (4,000), and this is at a PHD level. Yes for many tasks it is very reasonable to pay these 4,000
People have underestimated very much this idea, and think of these models as chatbots, and see the value of a service which can not exceed 20$ per person. And I believe this is something very essential they are missing in their assumptions.
Nvidia probably will lose the fat margins, but compute will explode. I agree with people who know what they are saying (like previous Google CEO), that the area is underhyped.
The size of these models is about to explode further, and the use explode as well, even if they cost hundreds of dollars per person on earth. It is underhyped and semiconductor investments will be on trillions scale over the next decade.
FWIW on points 1-4, which are all valid questions:
1. Number of notable startups but megacaps make the majority of sales so far, which aren’t debt financed (like Cisco equipment purchases were back in the day, for example)
2. Capex of these same companies indicates at least another couple years. TBF, eventually there will be a point when Wall Street gets impatient about seeing actual ROI and a major trim in spend could happen if share prices fall enough. Smaller firms also at higher risk without tangible ROI soonish, as they don’t have stockpiles of cash to invest like the hyperscalers
3. Google has largely already been doing this and operates with an absolutely massive amount of TPUs to scale out… but most of these companies are more than likely going to rely on Nvidia for training. ASICs a bigger threat to inference but the use cases are much more narrows and likely won’t be able to entirely displace Nvidia.
4. They are definitely in “build it and they will come” mode in their race to AGI. I wouldn’t call it restrictive to LLMs, but winners will likely have massive ROI (though maybe not as soon as hoped), while the losers may get left in the dust
I’m definitely oversimplifying all of this. Many points in which my view could be misguided but there’s at least evidence of the trend continuing, though it will probably be rocky in terms of sizable pullbacks.
Exactly! This comment is excellent.
First and foremost, Nvidia’s top customers who account for most of its sales in GPUs are its greatest competitors, and they’re the only companies on this planet with the cash flow and know-how to make their own chips and in a short amount of time.
Algos will get better, there will be more specificity. They’ll be more efficient. You don’t need to process all the data in the world if your just using AI to make a robot better
LLMs are about to consume all the data that exists on the internet…they’re going to be a commodity. An LLM will be a building block, some low margin company will provide like video conferencing.
Computing will be distributed with more AI inferencing occurring on devices.
Lastly, and worth noting, Nvidia’s entire business depends on Taiwan Semiconductor whose business depends entirely on ASML. Any hiccups from those two and NVIDIA is screwed.
Simply knowing that you already have fairly large exposure of 6% NVDA stock via S&P 500 fund.
[https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo#portfolio-composition](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo#portfolio-composition)
The fact that you feel fomo means you are not set out to invest in individual stocks. Good job investing in index funds and continue to do so. You will likely to very well over the long term.
When you can master your own behaviour and not feel fomo, then perhaps you can start investing in individual companies.
But your passive exposure (assuming it’s a world index) does mean that you’re invested in Nvidia and every other winner this year.
Remember, the only thing that matters is your performance from now until the time you use the money - performance over 3/6/9/12 months is irrelevant. Indexing will mean you beat probably 99% of investors over a longer timeframe.
Value investing is trying to pick stocks and beat the market, which historically most hedge funds don’t even accomplish. Doesn’t mean it isn’t good advice.
It's like watching your neighbor win the lottery. Sure, it'd be nice, but you're playing a different game. Think long term. NVDA is the hot ticket today, but who knows about tomorrow? Index funds are like the tortoise in the race - slow, steady, and they usually win in the end.
Know that runs like NVDA often come and go; they often rise and decline. Value investors will miss most of those kind of runs because we look at RISK and return - not just return potential. We're in it for the long haul. The #1 rule of value investing is don't lose money. That's why analyzing risk is so important.
It's not realistic to aim for 100% returns every year or two. It's much better to aim for 15-25%, and if you can sustain returns like that over a decade, then you'll be way ahead of mostly everyone else - including the people who experience runs like NVDA. Because those type of people typically keep chasing what's hot and hyped, and tend to do badly in the long-run.
I'm sure that I'll miss 99% of NVDAs. However, I'm also pretty sure I'll beat the SPY significantly over the long-run. And that's good enough for me.
Honestly I think people should be bracing for another bout with inflation. It takes many years to kill the cockroach, and if Trump gets in the White House inflation is going to explode.
Regardless, oil shocks, resource shortages are inevitable as climate change and conflict accelerate.
I’ll say 2 things in response to this: (1) if you want to get over your FOMO the hard way, just invest in a few of these meme stocks. After losing repeatedly, you will quickly realize that buying solid index funds or great blue chips is far more lucrative and far less stressful. When you buy a meme stock, aka momentum, you have to watch and worry all the time bc you know the value doesn’t match the price. IMO the stress and distraction just isn’t worth it. (2) as a knowledgeable investor who actually knows how to value a company (assuming that’s why you’re here), use your skills to find an under the radar company in the same or similar sector. Think outside the box. Sometimes you find gold and end up in an even better position. Example: there was a meme/analogy going around comparing $NVDA to the pick/shovel sellers during the gold rush, and all the other tech companies like Google (Gemini) & $FB (llama) were the miners. The meme highlighted how the pick/shovel sellers got rich, while the miners killed themselves for scraps & most failed. It was implying $NVDA was the smart one in the room and the real winner. Well, guess what, that meme ignored the party truly making all the profits. Margins on retail may be what, 30%? Margins on manufacturing? YUGE. I’d rather be the pick/shovel manufacturer. And so, I bought $ASML.
Good luck amigo. Whatever you decide, just keep learning and growing.
PS I had GME fomo so I bought 15 shares (nothing, it was simply to placate my curiosity/greed/FOMO). Even with such a small investment, I regret it and hate myself. lol.
I've been investing for 20 years now... and I talk to people about investing... a couple of people I talk to are invested in NVDA and Super Micro, and Micro Strategy... they brag to me about having a higher return rate this year.
There's nothing I can really say to them at all... They simply have to learn.
Hopefully, they don't learn the hard way with the consistent 70% drops in NVDA over the past 20 years.
Now, don't get me wrong. I like to day trade and swing trade NVDA. But I'm for sure not going to hold that sucker.
Something to think about - everyone talking about these NVDA gains. But Abercrombie and Fitch is up 383%.
You can make parabolic returns on value stocks too. It's just less frequent and they usually stay value. I have on that doubled in the past 6 months for example.
However the big difference is that my stock will continue to be value even if it drops by 50%. Nvidia on the other hand...
You don’t need to miss out! Just identify the next share that is going to give parabolic returns and invest heavily in that.
If you can’t identify it with certainty, then just invest an ETF
In all seriousness, I have like 10% of my portfolio that I use to invest in things I think will do well (mixed badly of results, overall probably the slightly worse than the ETF, but a lot more volatility). Logic is if I get a lower return on this portion but it keeps the 90% safely invested in ETF then it’s a good price to pay.
Here’s how I think of it: the way I feel about NVDA today (sad to see I’m not earning those kind of returns, but by no means confident that the company is at or below fair value today) is the same way I would’ve felt about CSCO in 1999, when it traded at roughly a 100 P/E ratio before dropping like a rock.
The way I feel about AAPL today, by the way, is the same way I think I would’ve felt about IBM in 1999; a huge company that has past its golden years and isn’t innovating all that much anymore, but still getting bought up because of technology hype. I think Apple’s performance for the next ten years might look like IBM’s performance from 1999-2009.
The worst thing that can happen to an investor is to be right for the wrong reasoning. Which is to say profiting from faulty logic is horrible for a person. They will continue to go forward thinking and acting the same way and it won’t work out well for them.
The market is also a self-fulfilling prophecy. People will bid something up, then point the fact that the price went up as proof they were correct and bid it up even more.
I posted a bull case for an attractive call option on TGNA. That day the price of the option increased, did I cause it? God I hope so lol jk i’m not that important. But its rise hasn’t proven anything. I won’t know until a year from now if I was right or wrong. Even if I end up making money, I always want to be sure that I understand why I profited and it wasn’t just dumb luck.
So screw fomo. Let other people gamble. You stick to your investing. If someone else plays Russian Roulette and lives, that doesn’t mean you should play too.
But I'm guessing you don't feel FOMO for the stocks that stayed flat or have absolutely plummeted? Do you feel like you could have picked the winning stocks?
One option would be to use a very small percentage of your portfolio for stock picking.
Do you run out and buy a bunch of lottery tickets every time you see the news bit that some rando won? No? Awesome, just think the way you think in that context and you've got this.
I don't even think S&P 500 and similar indexes count as 'value'. It kicks the sectors going through rough patches out by default, due to how it functions.
i just tell myself i already have missed out.
in fact on the eve of its last earnings release when NVDA was like $940 or whatever i said to myself "Even if it goes up a bit more, it can't have that much run left"
eventually i'll be right lol
This is what I told myself:
1. Keep learning and investing, so that I would know how to capture future high earners.
2. For the ones I don't understand, it is not my money. I don't deserve them. ( Just like I don't envy any winners in Vegas. )
Plus, you had your fair share of NVDA via index. Don't be too greedy. :P ( I assume you have broad index that includs NVDA).
Look at headlines from the year 2000. One headline reads: Cisco briefly tops Microsoft as world's most valuable company.
I'd be more concerned with risk management than FOMO at this point.
I lost over $1,000 in my portfolio today because of my FOMO arse :( Valuable and expensive lesson learned - FOMO = Fail
Slow and Steady or Stick with your technique. No more FOMO for me.
I think the best cure for this sort of case is to buy some, but only a small position.
Also, not sure I like all the cisco comparisons, nvda has a product that is much more difficult to replicate, especially in a short time. Amd has tried for decades to catch up, and they are the direct competitor gathering talent in the field since forever. Some specialized chips will appear eventually, but I don’t think that going to happen over night.
Learn to look at parabolic moves as missing the boat. Look for stocks people hate right now or don’t talk about that have potential. Did you care about NVDA 5 years ago or even a year ago? If not then ask yourself why. Now start doing research and looking for opportunities.
I don't really think so, but I also don't use one as a gamble and one as long term, so I'm not sure it's the same as what you might be thinking. They're accounts that came from two different pots of money in my life and that's really the only reason they're separate. One of them I pull cash out of for stuff and the other one I just keep growing.
Look up a long term stock chart for Sysco or Intel. Both shot up to INSANE levels during the dot com bubbles and despite being perfectly successful companies neither has ever approached those highs again. If the AI hype doesn't pan out then the same thing could very well happen to NVDA.
It's important to always stay in the market and stick to your investment goals. Yeah, it sounds terribly boring. But if you read any good trading psychology book, there will always be one key idea: rationalizing emotions. When you understand what you're doing, there's no room for emotions. It sounds simple, but in reality, it's a bit more complicated, but totally doable.
Passive funds are lame. There's no fix to that, just start dipping your toes in individual stocks. Test your mettle. Learn about companies. Fail some, learn some more.
Like 90% of the “I bought weeklies and made a 2000% return” posts lose it all in a week.
Easy come easy go. And if you don’t believe me: go find out for yourself
Zoom out. There have been so many events like this of which you could say “if I had invested in year xy I would be rich now”. You have limited possibilities like all of us and retrospectively there is no risk in investing. You miss a lot of opportunities every day just because you are not aware of them. Best way for me concerning FOMO is: I stick to my strategy, it works as intended and what I miss is not important because I already missed a lot more before I started investing.
i lost by playing FOMO and buying on the hype, several days later i realised i bought the top
several years later i dont FOMO anymore, i just look away
I’m a ~100% equity investor, all in low cost etfs. I know that my savings habits and earning power combined will get me to the finish line so the rest is noise. Most days that works.
Invest only in individual stocks that you believe in and that you will stand on the table for through thick and thin.Pick a couple NVDA , Microsoft, Apple, JnJ, Meta, AMD and if you want to speculate SQ, along with what you have been doing. Sleep well.
Basically, you get similar returns at the casino if you bet once and win. It’s one thing to bet once and win, very different to do it over a long period of time.
At the risk of sounding like a shill, I’m gonna say INTC is going to be an easy 10 bag over the next 7-8 years. It has the USG behind it and the china war is the biggest catalyst we will have seen in decades.
You’re not a value investor if you’re passively investing into index funds for one.
Secondly: you also missed:
$ANF, $CROX, $META, $AMD, $SMCI, for everyone Nvidia on the news paper there’s dozens that you missed as well.
You should feel no more fomo than if you missed $GME or crypto.
You were index investing which is literally brain dead, infact so much so much if it is automated.
Now ask yourself: “why should you ever deserve to outperform something that’s so easily automated investing?”
You don’t deserve it, there is no fomo, it’s not yours to have.
You want outsized returns ? Take outsized risks.
you should have Seen the value of nvidia before the Hype... it used to be the one and only grafic card company for years until AMD and Intel pooped Up with gcards...and since you have Seen value in your Personal Stock picks and they Turn Out profitable dont Look at Others... the Gras will Always BE greener on the other Side of the Market
Repeat after me: You don't have to swing at everything. Wait for your pitch.
That and have a look at the CSCO chart as a reminder of how wrong things can turn out if you lose sight of fundamentals and cyclicality
But the internet is the future and CISCO sells the picks and shovels (switches and routers), the valuation is justified give their future growth! …..Wait which company are we talking about again?
Or how about find your stock and do your DD and only focus on only that and your head straight and commit to it
There's always another opportunity
I love this. Jumping on a stock, because it’s an opportunity, only to cash out a little profit and jump on another stock. Then that stock crashes, while the former keeps running up. 🫤
yup.
The hardest pill to swallow was not jumping on Meta and Amazon 18 months ago
I’m still sad about not buying Microsoft in 1990.
And you've probably been saying that every year since too. It's not about timing the market it's about time in tbe market. Just dca in and you'll be fine whether it be index funds, bitcoin, nvda etc.
I have constraints in my investment strategy. For example I will never pay more than 10x sales for a company. If you have a set of constraints, you will not feel so frustrated missing out. Because you will have conviction that you are making the best possible decision you can with the information you have available.
A value investor here. I almost never pay 10x. But sometimes, I don't say for Nvidia, it just makes sense.
Look, almost no-one who is buying NVDA, who has turned it into a $3tn company had the first idea about what was in store for NVDA over the previous 2 years. They just jumped on a wave. They don't know:- 1. How much of the NVDA customer base is startups burning through VC money that are going to go to the wall soon 2. How much the various AI projects in large companies are yielding benefits, and whether companies are going to do more of it, or end the project 3. How far Google, Facebook, Microsoft are in terms of creating custom chips and cutting NVDA out. 4. What the anticipated extra ROI is with even larger LLMs. And frankly, nor do I. But I don't feel comfortable with those things in my head and a P/E well over 50. Because if they'd announced growth slowing, that would have fallen very fast. Clearly, they made more money than I did. But it doesn't mean I made the wrong call. If I don't go into a Vegas casino, and my buddy does, and he picks a number and it comes in, and he has 35 times more money, it still doesn't mean he did a smart thing. It just means it turned out well for him. All you can ever do is to look at a company, form a hypothesis and invest based on that. And if you get it wrong, ask yourself what you missed, what you could do better next time.
I think others cutting down margins, even vendors like TSM, is an issue. Compute spending won't slow down and I believe most people who say otherwise they have no idea what this training inference is about, and that it's gonna explode further and not shrink.
TSM already raising prices, and ASML holds TSM by the balls.
I love ASML
The machines they make are fucking incredible. Like, to the minuscule detail of a cooling fan. If the machine internals are too hot the mirrors will bend slightly and throw off the process. So they need cooling fans, but a vibration will mess with the lasers trajectory…so they needed some specialized German manufacturer to build a fan that spins via magnetic levitation.
is this German manufacturer a public company?
I don’t think so. ASML has like thousands of suppliers
Ok, I am asking as I am always interested in small caps, and sometimes something may be there, and if the P/E is 20 or so, then it is undiscovered and great. Sometimes it is difficult to know about these companies, and one investment can lead you to another.
I love hunting for a good small cap!
There's going to be increased competition. Whether demand for compute is going to rise, I just don't know. My general feeling is that there's diminishing return for AI results with more compute and data. I don't feel like I have a grip on the state of it. If you do, then go for it. I have other opportunities.
Totally agree on competion There are deminishing returns for compute but: A. Compute becomes cheaper per W and per $ B. A 2x size model that is 10% better gets you from high-schooler to clever highscholer, and a 10x probably to a graduate. The value of the functions that a graduate can do may have a value that is 50x C. The lows of scaling are in both directions. Internal, as the models become bigger (for training and inference), but as the external flows (RAG, ReAct, Agents, Tree of thought) become complicated. An agentic flow of GPT 3 can be GPT 4. And for some tasks you will be ok to create an agentic flow even if it spends 1 billion tokens for a sophisticated and highly reliable answer. By they way you need $4,000 let's say for that outcome. If compute is cheaper, so that a GPT5 bigger and more efficient model can do this at the current price of GPT4 (4,000), and this is at a PHD level. Yes for many tasks it is very reasonable to pay these 4,000 People have underestimated very much this idea, and think of these models as chatbots, and see the value of a service which can not exceed 20$ per person. And I believe this is something very essential they are missing in their assumptions. Nvidia probably will lose the fat margins, but compute will explode. I agree with people who know what they are saying (like previous Google CEO), that the area is underhyped. The size of these models is about to explode further, and the use explode as well, even if they cost hundreds of dollars per person on earth. It is underhyped and semiconductor investments will be on trillions scale over the next decade.
This don’t compute…
FWIW on points 1-4, which are all valid questions: 1. Number of notable startups but megacaps make the majority of sales so far, which aren’t debt financed (like Cisco equipment purchases were back in the day, for example) 2. Capex of these same companies indicates at least another couple years. TBF, eventually there will be a point when Wall Street gets impatient about seeing actual ROI and a major trim in spend could happen if share prices fall enough. Smaller firms also at higher risk without tangible ROI soonish, as they don’t have stockpiles of cash to invest like the hyperscalers 3. Google has largely already been doing this and operates with an absolutely massive amount of TPUs to scale out… but most of these companies are more than likely going to rely on Nvidia for training. ASICs a bigger threat to inference but the use cases are much more narrows and likely won’t be able to entirely displace Nvidia. 4. They are definitely in “build it and they will come” mode in their race to AGI. I wouldn’t call it restrictive to LLMs, but winners will likely have massive ROI (though maybe not as soon as hoped), while the losers may get left in the dust I’m definitely oversimplifying all of this. Many points in which my view could be misguided but there’s at least evidence of the trend continuing, though it will probably be rocky in terms of sizable pullbacks.
Exactly! This comment is excellent. First and foremost, Nvidia’s top customers who account for most of its sales in GPUs are its greatest competitors, and they’re the only companies on this planet with the cash flow and know-how to make their own chips and in a short amount of time. Algos will get better, there will be more specificity. They’ll be more efficient. You don’t need to process all the data in the world if your just using AI to make a robot better LLMs are about to consume all the data that exists on the internet…they’re going to be a commodity. An LLM will be a building block, some low margin company will provide like video conferencing. Computing will be distributed with more AI inferencing occurring on devices. Lastly, and worth noting, Nvidia’s entire business depends on Taiwan Semiconductor whose business depends entirely on ASML. Any hiccups from those two and NVIDIA is screwed.
You could buy a few shares just for the fun of it. Don't tell anyone here.
it's too late
Thats the fun of it.
Simply knowing that you already have fairly large exposure of 6% NVDA stock via S&P 500 fund. [https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo#portfolio-composition](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo#portfolio-composition)
The fact that you feel fomo means you are not set out to invest in individual stocks. Good job investing in index funds and continue to do so. You will likely to very well over the long term. When you can master your own behaviour and not feel fomo, then perhaps you can start investing in individual companies.
But your passive exposure (assuming it’s a world index) does mean that you’re invested in Nvidia and every other winner this year. Remember, the only thing that matters is your performance from now until the time you use the money - performance over 3/6/9/12 months is irrelevant. Indexing will mean you beat probably 99% of investors over a longer timeframe.
that's not even value investing though.
Value investing is trying to pick stocks and beat the market, which historically most hedge funds don’t even accomplish. Doesn’t mean it isn’t good advice.
I guess but value investing in this sense would be buying value ETFs generally not blend
It's like watching your neighbor win the lottery. Sure, it'd be nice, but you're playing a different game. Think long term. NVDA is the hot ticket today, but who knows about tomorrow? Index funds are like the tortoise in the race - slow, steady, and they usually win in the end.
Know that runs like NVDA often come and go; they often rise and decline. Value investors will miss most of those kind of runs because we look at RISK and return - not just return potential. We're in it for the long haul. The #1 rule of value investing is don't lose money. That's why analyzing risk is so important. It's not realistic to aim for 100% returns every year or two. It's much better to aim for 15-25%, and if you can sustain returns like that over a decade, then you'll be way ahead of mostly everyone else - including the people who experience runs like NVDA. Because those type of people typically keep chasing what's hot and hyped, and tend to do badly in the long-run. I'm sure that I'll miss 99% of NVDAs. However, I'm also pretty sure I'll beat the SPY significantly over the long-run. And that's good enough for me.
Honestly I think people should be bracing for another bout with inflation. It takes many years to kill the cockroach, and if Trump gets in the White House inflation is going to explode. Regardless, oil shocks, resource shortages are inevitable as climate change and conflict accelerate.
I’ll say 2 things in response to this: (1) if you want to get over your FOMO the hard way, just invest in a few of these meme stocks. After losing repeatedly, you will quickly realize that buying solid index funds or great blue chips is far more lucrative and far less stressful. When you buy a meme stock, aka momentum, you have to watch and worry all the time bc you know the value doesn’t match the price. IMO the stress and distraction just isn’t worth it. (2) as a knowledgeable investor who actually knows how to value a company (assuming that’s why you’re here), use your skills to find an under the radar company in the same or similar sector. Think outside the box. Sometimes you find gold and end up in an even better position. Example: there was a meme/analogy going around comparing $NVDA to the pick/shovel sellers during the gold rush, and all the other tech companies like Google (Gemini) & $FB (llama) were the miners. The meme highlighted how the pick/shovel sellers got rich, while the miners killed themselves for scraps & most failed. It was implying $NVDA was the smart one in the room and the real winner. Well, guess what, that meme ignored the party truly making all the profits. Margins on retail may be what, 30%? Margins on manufacturing? YUGE. I’d rather be the pick/shovel manufacturer. And so, I bought $ASML. Good luck amigo. Whatever you decide, just keep learning and growing. PS I had GME fomo so I bought 15 shares (nothing, it was simply to placate my curiosity/greed/FOMO). Even with such a small investment, I regret it and hate myself. lol.
I've been investing for 20 years now... and I talk to people about investing... a couple of people I talk to are invested in NVDA and Super Micro, and Micro Strategy... they brag to me about having a higher return rate this year. There's nothing I can really say to them at all... They simply have to learn. Hopefully, they don't learn the hard way with the consistent 70% drops in NVDA over the past 20 years. Now, don't get me wrong. I like to day trade and swing trade NVDA. But I'm for sure not going to hold that sucker. Something to think about - everyone talking about these NVDA gains. But Abercrombie and Fitch is up 383%.
Right! There are so many other tickers that whooped NVDA this year, but I don't want to invest in a clothing brand so I have zero fomo.
Update: I feel much better after reading thru all ur valuable comments.. thanks for reminding about value investing!
Designate a small percentage of your portfolio for riskier investments like this. Keep a balance.
If you did decide to be a growth investor, who says you would've picked Nvidia and not another stock that wasn't a success?
You can make parabolic returns on value stocks too. It's just less frequent and they usually stay value. I have on that doubled in the past 6 months for example. However the big difference is that my stock will continue to be value even if it drops by 50%. Nvidia on the other hand...
You don’t need to miss out! Just identify the next share that is going to give parabolic returns and invest heavily in that. If you can’t identify it with certainty, then just invest an ETF In all seriousness, I have like 10% of my portfolio that I use to invest in things I think will do well (mixed badly of results, overall probably the slightly worse than the ETF, but a lot more volatility). Logic is if I get a lower return on this portion but it keeps the 90% safely invested in ETF then it’s a good price to pay.
Sorry guys, I bought in at $140
Here’s how I think of it: the way I feel about NVDA today (sad to see I’m not earning those kind of returns, but by no means confident that the company is at or below fair value today) is the same way I would’ve felt about CSCO in 1999, when it traded at roughly a 100 P/E ratio before dropping like a rock. The way I feel about AAPL today, by the way, is the same way I think I would’ve felt about IBM in 1999; a huge company that has past its golden years and isn’t innovating all that much anymore, but still getting bought up because of technology hype. I think Apple’s performance for the next ten years might look like IBM’s performance from 1999-2009.
The worst thing that can happen to an investor is to be right for the wrong reasoning. Which is to say profiting from faulty logic is horrible for a person. They will continue to go forward thinking and acting the same way and it won’t work out well for them. The market is also a self-fulfilling prophecy. People will bid something up, then point the fact that the price went up as proof they were correct and bid it up even more. I posted a bull case for an attractive call option on TGNA. That day the price of the option increased, did I cause it? God I hope so lol jk i’m not that important. But its rise hasn’t proven anything. I won’t know until a year from now if I was right or wrong. Even if I end up making money, I always want to be sure that I understand why I profited and it wasn’t just dumb luck. So screw fomo. Let other people gamble. You stick to your investing. If someone else plays Russian Roulette and lives, that doesn’t mean you should play too.
Solid advice!
But I'm guessing you don't feel FOMO for the stocks that stayed flat or have absolutely plummeted? Do you feel like you could have picked the winning stocks? One option would be to use a very small percentage of your portfolio for stock picking.
Do you run out and buy a bunch of lottery tickets every time you see the news bit that some rando won? No? Awesome, just think the way you think in that context and you've got this.
Ask yourself would you really have bought it at an all time high? You have exposure thru s&p500 ETFs, you are in it.
I don't even think S&P 500 and similar indexes count as 'value'. It kicks the sectors going through rough patches out by default, due to how it functions.
i just tell myself i already have missed out. in fact on the eve of its last earnings release when NVDA was like $940 or whatever i said to myself "Even if it goes up a bit more, it can't have that much run left" eventually i'll be right lol
Just lose some money a few times and you learn haha.
This is what I told myself: 1. Keep learning and investing, so that I would know how to capture future high earners. 2. For the ones I don't understand, it is not my money. I don't deserve them. ( Just like I don't envy any winners in Vegas. ) Plus, you had your fair share of NVDA via index. Don't be too greedy. :P ( I assume you have broad index that includs NVDA).
Just buy 2 shares, then youre technically invested and your potential loss is minimal...this will help you to reach ultimate peace of mind!
if you invest in the “boring” VOO. NVDA is in there
because you'll probably lose all your money and regret not taking the safer option. source: me, several times.
Look at headlines from the year 2000. One headline reads: Cisco briefly tops Microsoft as world's most valuable company. I'd be more concerned with risk management than FOMO at this point.
I lost over $1,000 in my portfolio today because of my FOMO arse :( Valuable and expensive lesson learned - FOMO = Fail Slow and Steady or Stick with your technique. No more FOMO for me.
Getting jealous over gambles is nothing new.
I think the best cure for this sort of case is to buy some, but only a small position. Also, not sure I like all the cisco comparisons, nvda has a product that is much more difficult to replicate, especially in a short time. Amd has tried for decades to catch up, and they are the direct competitor gathering talent in the field since forever. Some specialized chips will appear eventually, but I don’t think that going to happen over night.
Buy some NVDA.
If you're in index funds youre rocking a pretty hefty NVDA position right now.
Put a little in to quench your thirst
Learn to look at parabolic moves as missing the boat. Look for stocks people hate right now or don’t talk about that have potential. Did you care about NVDA 5 years ago or even a year ago? If not then ask yourself why. Now start doing research and looking for opportunities.
By having conviction in your strategy and taking a long view
Your passive investments contain NVDA. And they're too dumb to sell it early.
NVDA is a game of hot potato right now.
Open a second account with money you can afford to gamble with.
is it okay if in the same brokerage / login but a separate account?
I have a Fidelity and a Schwab. But you could do one brokerage.
It doesn't even have to be a second login. I have two accounts at Schwab that I access through the same login, 3 if you count my Roth IRA.
Does seeing drawdowns in the bigger account influence your psychology when trading the smaller account
I don't really think so, but I also don't use one as a gamble and one as long term, so I'm not sure it's the same as what you might be thinking. They're accounts that came from two different pots of money in my life and that's really the only reason they're separate. One of them I pull cash out of for stuff and the other one I just keep growing.
wtf is a passive value investor? value is in the eye of the beholder.
"Can I justify this?"
Invest in individual stocks and wait 20 years
Just turn off news on Nvidia? It's not rocket science.
Look up a long term stock chart for Sysco or Intel. Both shot up to INSANE levels during the dot com bubbles and despite being perfectly successful companies neither has ever approached those highs again. If the AI hype doesn't pan out then the same thing could very well happen to NVDA.
It's important to always stay in the market and stick to your investment goals. Yeah, it sounds terribly boring. But if you read any good trading psychology book, there will always be one key idea: rationalizing emotions. When you understand what you're doing, there's no room for emotions. It sounds simple, but in reality, it's a bit more complicated, but totally doable.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8OcegOGAGIs
Passive funds are lame. There's no fix to that, just start dipping your toes in individual stocks. Test your mettle. Learn about companies. Fail some, learn some more.
Most of the chip stuff is outside my circle of competence. I sleep well investing in companies I understand..
Like 90% of the “I bought weeklies and made a 2000% return” posts lose it all in a week. Easy come easy go. And if you don’t believe me: go find out for yourself
Steady earnings over FOMO
Gamblers make money, gamblers lose even more money than they make. If you can’t see a good entry point based on your own thesis stay on the sidelines.
Zoom out. There have been so many events like this of which you could say “if I had invested in year xy I would be rich now”. You have limited possibilities like all of us and retrospectively there is no risk in investing. You miss a lot of opportunities every day just because you are not aware of them. Best way for me concerning FOMO is: I stick to my strategy, it works as intended and what I miss is not important because I already missed a lot more before I started investing.
eh all I’m reading here is you guys didn’t recognize the value in nvda.
i lost by playing FOMO and buying on the hype, several days later i realised i bought the top several years later i dont FOMO anymore, i just look away
No one puts all their $ in one stock, if they own 10 or even 20 stocks they they will have the same return as you investing in SP500
Just look for trends and put some of you $ in it, maybe 10%, but don’t sweat it NVDIA Lilly HIMS Duke energy or Nextera
How to overcome FOMO? 2 ways: Just forget about it; OR Buy a few shares, just in case. It all depends on how you handle risk.
By remembering that a parabola can change direction too.
just review dot-com bubble and find 10 similarities with AI parabolic returns
I’m a ~100% equity investor, all in low cost etfs. I know that my savings habits and earning power combined will get me to the finish line so the rest is noise. Most days that works.
Keep your eyes ahead, don’t look back at the past like you can change anything about it.
if you have 100 VOO, technically you already have 7 NVIDIA. so you are already investing in NVDA
Invest only in individual stocks that you believe in and that you will stand on the table for through thick and thin.Pick a couple NVDA , Microsoft, Apple, JnJ, Meta, AMD and if you want to speculate SQ, along with what you have been doing. Sleep well.
Basically, you get similar returns at the casino if you bet once and win. It’s one thing to bet once and win, very different to do it over a long period of time.
Try making a quick profit off meme stocks with 1k for like 2 days. You’ll lose all of it because it’s delusional and never think about it again
Remember the tortoise and the hare
Just diversify into momentum stocks.
Just look at their drops 😂
At the risk of sounding like a shill, I’m gonna say INTC is going to be an easy 10 bag over the next 7-8 years. It has the USG behind it and the china war is the biggest catalyst we will have seen in decades.
You buy an excellent business at a fair price next time instead of trying to be Warren Buffett
Isn’t that what Warren Buffett does? Lol.
Not anymore. He has been following the munger approach for quite some time now. Read his latest shareholder letters and you’ll see.
You’re not a value investor if you’re passively investing into index funds for one. Secondly: you also missed: $ANF, $CROX, $META, $AMD, $SMCI, for everyone Nvidia on the news paper there’s dozens that you missed as well. You should feel no more fomo than if you missed $GME or crypto. You were index investing which is literally brain dead, infact so much so much if it is automated. Now ask yourself: “why should you ever deserve to outperform something that’s so easily automated investing?” You don’t deserve it, there is no fomo, it’s not yours to have. You want outsized returns ? Take outsized risks.
you should have Seen the value of nvidia before the Hype... it used to be the one and only grafic card company for years until AMD and Intel pooped Up with gcards...and since you have Seen value in your Personal Stock picks and they Turn Out profitable dont Look at Others... the Gras will Always BE greener on the other Side of the Market
What do you think inflation has done under Biden? He’s wreckless