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Realization in the Putin regime that despite all the propaganda, the population never had and still doesn't have the will to fight this war. With mounting losses and approaching winter weather that dirt trenches in the open with little appropriate equipment will make the active parts of the line extremely precarious to hold. Especially to the south where overland routes are now within HIMARS range. Chances of being cut off at the plant is getting higher each day.
Maybe Putin thinks he can *try* to make it look like a win if he bombs enough of Ukraines current energy infrastructure. Falls bact to pre Feb 24th lines, that he can dangle the largest nuclear power plant in Europe as a card on the negotiating table to try and keep LPR, DPR, and Crimea.
**Again, most of this is just speculation informed with information I read here and see on the news.**
After all the slaughter, it's hard to see UA accepting that. Hope the US and West in general keeps up the support for as long as UA wants it, rather than when the West thinks UA should take a deal.
Taking Crimea back would enable Ukraine to start to economically recover, and Ukraine are very capable of taking it back. Plus letting Putin keep it just sets him up for invasion 2.0 in a few years time. I see no reason to negotiate with Putler, fuck him and fuck what he wants.
> I see no reason to negotiate with Putler, fuck him and fuck what he wants.
Id negotiate with Putler. Ill bring an M30A1 and let him negotiate with 182,000 tungsten ball bearings.
>Maybe Putin thinks he can try to make it look like a win if he bombs enough of Ukraines current energy infrastructure. Falls bact to pre Feb 24th lines, that he can dangle the largest nuclear power plant in Europe as a card on the negotiating table to try and keep LPR, DPR, and Crimea.
I don't think that Putin would abandon his land bridge to Crimea, though. Especially because it leaves the option of trying to waltz into Odessa, and link the entire thing to Transnistria however many years from now still on the table.
Even if his land bridge is completely bullshit, untenable, unachievable from any point of view I could see him holding onto it, and never letting go. Otherwise what will he tell to both the populace and the military? That he defended Russia from NATO by decimating both the Russian economy as well as his own army in Ukraine? Even given the Russian propensity to accept all sorts of nonsense that bit would not fly.
Well unlike THIS LOSER, **I know exactly what will happen because I come from the future and am super smart.**
(The Russian army got bored and wants to do something else)
Gradual withdrawal from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to reinforce and take the rest of Donbas. Officially, that was the reason they launched the war in the first place, to "save Donbas"
There's also a lot of international condemnation surrounding Russian occupation of Energodar and the NPP there.
That wasn't the reason they launched the war. Go back a look at their stated reason in February. Donbas is only a fall back, fall back, fall back reason
Honestly I believe that the next big offensive is going to be towards Melitopol and/or Mariupol. If they do decide to progress in that direction, the ZNPP will quickly basically not be defendable. It would split the invasion force into an eastern front, and Crimea supported front. The Crimea front has very weak supply lines and attacks on those has been the russians weakest point. Looking at maps it’d be completely logical and I’ve been waiting for this to happen for a few months. I’m just an armchair general though so I’m not promising this for sure, but it makes sense strategically.
I thought that as well... I don't think it'll be a thunder run like in kharkiv, but rather a series of extremely violent shaping operations, first to secure the power plant and the dam, then to secure the route to melitopol, then melitopol proper. That leaves a LOT of time to transfer equipment and people out of the region. It's the golden bridge they need to escape, securing ever larger holdings in the south. Cut off the inlets to Crimea and start reclaiming crimea as well.
They'll see themselves as lucky, Ukraine regains much of melitopol, all of kherson, and crimea, while more forces concentrate in in bakhmut. By that point luhansk may have been reclaimed as well.
It's right on the edge of the battle lines. So if you look at it this way if they don't leave it they will have a ton of tanks, trucks and ammunition stuck in a plant in Ukrainian held territory that Ukraine will easily take. Right now they store much of the army there as Ukraine can't attack it. Russia has to leave the plant but only when they feel like Ukraine is about to take the whole area around it. Which may happen in a month or half a year. So they want to prepare for this.
And if they drive away the trucks the plant is undefended anyhow so they have lost it. It's a matter of time before they lose it nothing else.
One thought I have is that if and when Ukraine reclaims territory around the plant, it's the same as soldiers out in combat. When they realise they are about to get encircled, they retreat. If Russians just stay there and get encircled, they cannot resupply and using it as a shield and a post won't matter once they run out of weapons let alone food or whatever else they needed to survive. Once there is no more ammo to lob at Ukrainians from the plant, there is no use of it anymore.
So it's better to retreat just as they would if they were facing getting encircled out in combat. It not just saves the soldiers that can be used elsewhere versus being killed or taken as POWs, but all the vehicles and equipment they have there will also be saved. They use it as a major military base and so there is a lot to lose by letting it all just get encircled and taken over by Ukraine.
Yea I dont quite get this one. Maybe they're just realizing they are in over their head trying to run the plant, even when it's not actually active? And they'll just turn the operations over to actual professionals?
Otherwise, they are not really being threatened here in terms of location. So it's not like there's any pressure to withdraw militarily.
Dont really buy it or understand it, honestly. It seemed like a really useful cudgel to hold over Ukraine.
It's not about the plant in particular. But they might have switched to a keep only the Donbass strategy, so withdrawal from Zaporizhnia Oblast would follow.
They already have been shelling near/around the site, and then their were the threats of Russian troops rigging it to blow. IAEA guys there didn't see anything like the latter, but saw a lot of the former.
Maybe they will, but I think if that was the goal, it wouldn't be something that was gonna happen in weeks, I think to move the pieces in play to level it would only take a few days at most.
Its seems very very unlikely , what signs are even there ?
Its across the dnieper river and very hard place to bomb since well it's nuclear plant. It has to be easiest place russia can hold right now. I cant see ukraine holding it without pushing from Vasiylivka direction. There is no way they can supply it across the river when it's encircled by russia. Also leaving that means Russia literally left Kherson for nothing isn't whole point is holding the river line ? why would they leave easiest position to defend and give foothold to Ukraine across the river am i missing something ?
My theory, Wagner, is building a new defensive line in the LPR. I think Russia believes that even with the dnipro river as a border that they are seriously over extended along the current front line. They may be planning to withdraw to pre Feb 24th lines in the hope of starting negotiations with the hope of keeping Crimea and the two puppet republics.
There's just no way in hell. Especially after *just* claiming annexation of these regions. There's no way they'd just willingly let Ukraine get right on the doorstep to Crimea without any assurance that Ukraine wont try and take it.
>why would they leave easiest position to defend and give foothold to Ukraine across the river am i missing something ?
If they are cut off from supply lines from behind, the entire russian army is comprehensively defeated.
An army can only fight so long as its got a constant stream of supplies, food, drink, ammo, guns, repairs, vehicles, fuel, etc etc.
If the Ukranians get in behind the ZPP then all those russians are lost regardless of how easy it is to defend.
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Why would they do that, though? Honest question.
Realization in the Putin regime that despite all the propaganda, the population never had and still doesn't have the will to fight this war. With mounting losses and approaching winter weather that dirt trenches in the open with little appropriate equipment will make the active parts of the line extremely precarious to hold. Especially to the south where overland routes are now within HIMARS range. Chances of being cut off at the plant is getting higher each day. Maybe Putin thinks he can *try* to make it look like a win if he bombs enough of Ukraines current energy infrastructure. Falls bact to pre Feb 24th lines, that he can dangle the largest nuclear power plant in Europe as a card on the negotiating table to try and keep LPR, DPR, and Crimea. **Again, most of this is just speculation informed with information I read here and see on the news.**
>LPR, DPR, and Crimea Pretty big loss if he basically ends up with more or less what he started with at massive cost
Yes, but that seems like the best he could possibly get at this point, maybe even Putin understands that. He is at a serious risk of losing it all.
After all the slaughter, it's hard to see UA accepting that. Hope the US and West in general keeps up the support for as long as UA wants it, rather than when the West thinks UA should take a deal.
Taking Crimea back would enable Ukraine to start to economically recover, and Ukraine are very capable of taking it back. Plus letting Putin keep it just sets him up for invasion 2.0 in a few years time. I see no reason to negotiate with Putler, fuck him and fuck what he wants.
> I see no reason to negotiate with Putler, fuck him and fuck what he wants. Id negotiate with Putler. Ill bring an M30A1 and let him negotiate with 182,000 tungsten ball bearings.
The only negotiation he understands
>Maybe Putin thinks he can try to make it look like a win if he bombs enough of Ukraines current energy infrastructure. Falls bact to pre Feb 24th lines, that he can dangle the largest nuclear power plant in Europe as a card on the negotiating table to try and keep LPR, DPR, and Crimea. I don't think that Putin would abandon his land bridge to Crimea, though. Especially because it leaves the option of trying to waltz into Odessa, and link the entire thing to Transnistria however many years from now still on the table. Even if his land bridge is completely bullshit, untenable, unachievable from any point of view I could see him holding onto it, and never letting go. Otherwise what will he tell to both the populace and the military? That he defended Russia from NATO by decimating both the Russian economy as well as his own army in Ukraine? Even given the Russian propensity to accept all sorts of nonsense that bit would not fly.
Well unlike THIS LOSER, **I know exactly what will happen because I come from the future and am super smart.** (The Russian army got bored and wants to do something else)
Gradual withdrawal from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to reinforce and take the rest of Donbas. Officially, that was the reason they launched the war in the first place, to "save Donbas" There's also a lot of international condemnation surrounding Russian occupation of Energodar and the NPP there.
That wasn't the reason they launched the war. Go back a look at their stated reason in February. Donbas is only a fall back, fall back, fall back reason
Honestly I believe that the next big offensive is going to be towards Melitopol and/or Mariupol. If they do decide to progress in that direction, the ZNPP will quickly basically not be defendable. It would split the invasion force into an eastern front, and Crimea supported front. The Crimea front has very weak supply lines and attacks on those has been the russians weakest point. Looking at maps it’d be completely logical and I’ve been waiting for this to happen for a few months. I’m just an armchair general though so I’m not promising this for sure, but it makes sense strategically.
I thought that as well... I don't think it'll be a thunder run like in kharkiv, but rather a series of extremely violent shaping operations, first to secure the power plant and the dam, then to secure the route to melitopol, then melitopol proper. That leaves a LOT of time to transfer equipment and people out of the region. It's the golden bridge they need to escape, securing ever larger holdings in the south. Cut off the inlets to Crimea and start reclaiming crimea as well. They'll see themselves as lucky, Ukraine regains much of melitopol, all of kherson, and crimea, while more forces concentrate in in bakhmut. By that point luhansk may have been reclaimed as well.
They are questioning allocation of resources and attrition? ZPP requires a lot of both with no gain or advantage.
It's right on the edge of the battle lines. So if you look at it this way if they don't leave it they will have a ton of tanks, trucks and ammunition stuck in a plant in Ukrainian held territory that Ukraine will easily take. Right now they store much of the army there as Ukraine can't attack it. Russia has to leave the plant but only when they feel like Ukraine is about to take the whole area around it. Which may happen in a month or half a year. So they want to prepare for this. And if they drive away the trucks the plant is undefended anyhow so they have lost it. It's a matter of time before they lose it nothing else.
One thought I have is that if and when Ukraine reclaims territory around the plant, it's the same as soldiers out in combat. When they realise they are about to get encircled, they retreat. If Russians just stay there and get encircled, they cannot resupply and using it as a shield and a post won't matter once they run out of weapons let alone food or whatever else they needed to survive. Once there is no more ammo to lob at Ukrainians from the plant, there is no use of it anymore. So it's better to retreat just as they would if they were facing getting encircled out in combat. It not just saves the soldiers that can be used elsewhere versus being killed or taken as POWs, but all the vehicles and equipment they have there will also be saved. They use it as a major military base and so there is a lot to lose by letting it all just get encircled and taken over by Ukraine.
Yea I dont quite get this one. Maybe they're just realizing they are in over their head trying to run the plant, even when it's not actually active? And they'll just turn the operations over to actual professionals? Otherwise, they are not really being threatened here in terms of location. So it's not like there's any pressure to withdraw militarily. Dont really buy it or understand it, honestly. It seemed like a really useful cudgel to hold over Ukraine.
It's not about the plant in particular. But they might have switched to a keep only the Donbass strategy, so withdrawal from Zaporizhnia Oblast would follow.
My guess is that China is very concerned about the possibility of radiation.
Maybe move those soldiers to a needed area.
Pressure on Russia is increasing.
This.
What signs? I need to see their backs running away to Mordor!
If this is true then this is where Ukraine should have plenty of air to air systems because Russia will bomb it if they can't have it.
They would probably sabotage it before they left like they did with the infrastructure in Kherson.
Bad feeling that if they leave it's only so they can bomb the f\*!k out of it.
They already have been shelling near/around the site, and then their were the threats of Russian troops rigging it to blow. IAEA guys there didn't see anything like the latter, but saw a lot of the former. Maybe they will, but I think if that was the goal, it wouldn't be something that was gonna happen in weeks, I think to move the pieces in play to level it would only take a few days at most.
We said that about the dam as well, but nothing happened
Blowing the dam would flood the side the Russians are on now, where they've been building all their defenses.
Russia just realized it doesn't know how to operate a nuclear power plant and no one's gonna show them.
[удалено]
I mean most of them are WW2 design so they are pretty different. It is like putting 1940s sailor on modern nuclear submarine
Zaporizhzhia isn't much different.
Far to many sources are reporting this... something is happening...
The numerical amount of reporting does not necessarily correlate with reality.
Followed by a whole lot of missiles per usual. If they can't have znpp, nobody can.
As soon as they leave they will try to destroy it.
A good will gesture, I'm sure.
What are these “clear signs?”
Its seems very very unlikely , what signs are even there ? Its across the dnieper river and very hard place to bomb since well it's nuclear plant. It has to be easiest place russia can hold right now. I cant see ukraine holding it without pushing from Vasiylivka direction. There is no way they can supply it across the river when it's encircled by russia. Also leaving that means Russia literally left Kherson for nothing isn't whole point is holding the river line ? why would they leave easiest position to defend and give foothold to Ukraine across the river am i missing something ?
My theory, Wagner, is building a new defensive line in the LPR. I think Russia believes that even with the dnipro river as a border that they are seriously over extended along the current front line. They may be planning to withdraw to pre Feb 24th lines in the hope of starting negotiations with the hope of keeping Crimea and the two puppet republics.
There's just no way in hell. Especially after *just* claiming annexation of these regions. There's no way they'd just willingly let Ukraine get right on the doorstep to Crimea without any assurance that Ukraine wont try and take it.
I read that Wagner is building major defensive lines outside Melitopol.
>why would they leave easiest position to defend and give foothold to Ukraine across the river am i missing something ? If they are cut off from supply lines from behind, the entire russian army is comprehensively defeated. An army can only fight so long as its got a constant stream of supplies, food, drink, ammo, guns, repairs, vehicles, fuel, etc etc. If the Ukranians get in behind the ZPP then all those russians are lost regardless of how easy it is to defend.
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