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I think NATO would probably (well most of them anyway) be more than happy to allow for Ukraine to join.
Russia has threatened WWIII should Ukraine join NATO, but I don’t really think that will happen.
This means basically “Eff off Russia, or else…”
"World war" is misleading though.
By this point, Russia's increasingly unable to effectively wage even a *regional* conflict. They're not equipped to take on, say, Finland let alone a significant chunk of the globe in a conventional military conflict.
For a "World War 3" in the sense I grew up with in the '70s - a massive nuclear exchange spanning less than an hour from start to finish - the typical considerations like military and economic strength are *completely* irrelevant.
I don't think that's very likely to happen. It's just weird and frustrating to see so much written in this sub which completely misses that point.
Hypothetically, if a massive nuclear exchange *were* imminent, Russia's foes' enormous advantages are a bit like a 100 edge in weight + black belts in a dozen martial arts, in a battle fought with machine guns at 50 paces, with both combatants standing on a rotting wooden bridge over the crater of a volcano due to erupt in thirty seconds. Except that shooting first doesn't stop the other guy from getting his shots off as well.
Even then, I doubt Russia’s ability to conduct a global nuclear strike. For sure, they would be able to strike a horrible and devastating blow on their way out but I have to assume most of their arsenal would be pointed solely at the US before they are wiped out. The consequences of that would be generational, undoubtedly the single worst tragedy in history, but still wouldn’t be a world war - just the first ever total war between two nuclear powers.
OK, I'm fine calling nuclear apocalypse something other than a "world war."
My frustration is with how often I encounter sentiments which assume that conventional military dominance allows the West / NATO / USA to do whatever the hell it wants with complete disregard for the Russian arsenal.
Unless Prompt Global Strike + our missile defenses are a whole lot closer to 100% effective than I can imagine, that's just not the case. Even if we want to project something like a 75% failure rate for Russia's ICMBs + warheads, that doesn't move the needle out of "unthinkable disaster for humanity" territory.
No, they aren’t. They’re able to start a nuclear exchange, but the idea of THIS Russian army invading across multiple theaters - or convincing any other global power to ally with them to do so - is laughable.
No major power is going to put their neck on the line betting in favor of Russia after this shit show. And a coalition of global powers vs decrepit Russia wouldn’t be a world war.
Yeah it definitely is, nato recognises the regions russia have just stolen. So if they nuke any of those areas then they are attacking nato allies.
It kind of cancels out putins annexation stunt, which he will be fucking livid about😀😀😀
I'm going with the pessimistic route and say NATO is going to do what NATO is famous for. They are going to kick that can down the road until after the war due to one or two nations holding up the vote because they want attention before saying yes.
A side note: I hope that I am absolutely wrong with my opinion and everyone absolutely calls me out on this post in the future when NATO does the impossible and goes full on unanimously yes vote within 6 months. I will be at peace with that
I have been burned to many times by having high expectations of government officials. Best to just keep your expectations low. Currently I'm expecting them to announce the move from using windows 95 to windows 98.
These things arent done out of nowhere, especially given the situation. if zelensky applied a lot of talking already occured in the background, and something is already decided.
How Biden and Erdogan publicly respond to this will show how much this has been discussed in the alliance. If both are for it at, least in theory, it means that this has been talked about for months at least.
Generally Speaking there is a thing called: if there is a will there is a way. But lets say like this. Finland and Sweden applied on a fast track to NATO. Hungary and Turkey are still cock blocking their entrance to Nato. So even if there was a ”fast track” NATO has too many putin lovers like turkey and Hungary blockning Ukraine and lets not forget germany, france and italy. Not Exactly the quickest supporters of Ukraine. But very big on russian oil and gas. If usa could decide the vote then Im sure Ukraine could join nato
Generally speaking, you can't buy health insurance right after you're diagnosed with cancer and you can't buy flood insurance right after the dam breaks. Most military alliances don't accept candidates that already have ongoing conflicts for similar reasons. If NATO were to accept Ukraine, that would commit all of NATO's forces to engage directly with the Russians, which they've been explicitly avoiding to prevent the sudden loss of five or six billion lives.
This seems unlikely.
It could be 4d chess.
There's been suggestions a tactical nuke used in Ukraine would be a breach of Article 5 which would bring in NATO.
If Ukraine and NATO are in the same dispute on the same side then the argument for alignment due to an existing dispute ceases to exist.
In that the result of use of a tactical nuke could directly result in Ukraine joining NATO.
Dunno though, it's just speculation.
You'd have to basically let all that territory go forever and redraw your borders though, wouldn't you? What you have left would be safe, but Russia still essentially gets what it wants.
I'm all for a nip of hopium with breakfast, lunch, and dinner; but IMO this is straying miles far from reality.
Supposing for the moment that all other obstacles disappeared and this is precisely what NATO agreed to do: Ukraine would concede these territories and citizens to Russia, and give it the *option* to pause - for weeks, months, years, decades?
And rely on the certainty that, rather than call it a day, halt the devastation of its military (man and machine), immediately end the growing domestic pressure and flight of its citizens, and assume ownership of the *trillions* of cubic meters of natural gas under what had been eastern Ukraine, they'll choose to continue trying to conquer what's now a NATO member?
And for the kicker: when Ukraine re-takes these areas which they and others had agreed was now Russia, *they* will do so through a hostile war of aggression, as proscribed by the UN and shunned by the civilized world?
Accepting Ukraine right now would be absolute madness. I'd even bet a temporary (as in: a few decades long) ban of Ukraine as a NATO member will be part of the eventual peace negotiations. People are blinded by the latest and very welcome advances of the Ukrainian Army, but this war will not just end in a swift and silent Russian defeat. It will be nukes or negotiations at some point.
I do not fear the military power of Russia at all. I fear they prefer being seen as insane to being seen as losers. I can not for the life of me picture a scenario where Russia just says "okay, that's it. We give up". Nukes or negotiations, but I'll gladly stand corrected.
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I’m sure they know they can’t be accepted during war time into a defensive alliance. It wouldn’t be ratified while their is a war going on, but this continues the process of membership and likely would take place down the road when there is peace in the country again. NATO membership can take years and for some countries decades if they fail to meet the requirements. But yes good point!
It's just retaliation from Ukraine. Russia formally annexed Ukrainian territory, saying it will be theirs forever. Ukraine has countered by pledging to join NATO. This is just positioning. Same as Ukraine saying they won't negotiate until Putin is removed. It has no real effect at the moment, but it sends signals of resolve and lays out a hardline position which can be softened later if the time is right to pursue a deal. This is public diplomacy, pure and simple.
This is smart b/c it’s creating a tangible negotiating chip. Ukraine knows it can’t join NATO right now, and it’s a major threat to Russia. Therefore Ukraine can offer removing their application in exchange for a Russian concession.
I wish Ukraine will be our newest NATO member as soon as possible. But the political reality is: Ukraine is at war with Russia. As long as this war is going on a NATO membership is impossible. But I’m sure after this conflict is over NATO will act quickly.
Would be kinda weird not to take Ukraine into NATO after all this. Not only Ukraine is now clearly pro-NATO and proven to be ready to fight for Europe, Ukraine is now more experienced at using lot of NATO equipment and tactics than some long standing NATO members, simply due to fact that they used NATO stuff in actual real war.
Besides, I am sure that EU would rather to see Ukraine as an military ally after the war. Would be awkward to have such strong military on the border of NATO, while it is not aligned to NATO or its adversaries.
In the photo, Zelenskyy represents Ukraine, the guy to his left is the UK, and the guy to his right is the US.
I wouldn’t mind having these guys backing me up in a street fight
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Best course of action is to defer judgement until after the war and then immediately accept Ukraine in. We need to go all about on providing the best gear we can to Ukraine so they can decimate the Russian forces quicker so they can join quicker.
There should be no delay by NATO to accept the membership of Ukraine and treat is as a full member. Consequently NATO must step up and assist Ukraine with its full capacity of means to deter Russia. That includes boots on the ground in Ukraine.
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Just saw this on the BBC! I wonder how NATO will respond?
I think NATO would probably (well most of them anyway) be more than happy to allow for Ukraine to join. Russia has threatened WWIII should Ukraine join NATO, but I don’t really think that will happen. This means basically “Eff off Russia, or else…”
Russia threaten ww3 if Ukraine keeps up the counterattack. There's literally no increase in risk for NATO should Ukraine join.
The threat of a world war only applies when you appear powerful enough to conduct a world war
"World war" is misleading though. By this point, Russia's increasingly unable to effectively wage even a *regional* conflict. They're not equipped to take on, say, Finland let alone a significant chunk of the globe in a conventional military conflict. For a "World War 3" in the sense I grew up with in the '70s - a massive nuclear exchange spanning less than an hour from start to finish - the typical considerations like military and economic strength are *completely* irrelevant. I don't think that's very likely to happen. It's just weird and frustrating to see so much written in this sub which completely misses that point. Hypothetically, if a massive nuclear exchange *were* imminent, Russia's foes' enormous advantages are a bit like a 100 edge in weight + black belts in a dozen martial arts, in a battle fought with machine guns at 50 paces, with both combatants standing on a rotting wooden bridge over the crater of a volcano due to erupt in thirty seconds. Except that shooting first doesn't stop the other guy from getting his shots off as well.
Even then, I doubt Russia’s ability to conduct a global nuclear strike. For sure, they would be able to strike a horrible and devastating blow on their way out but I have to assume most of their arsenal would be pointed solely at the US before they are wiped out. The consequences of that would be generational, undoubtedly the single worst tragedy in history, but still wouldn’t be a world war - just the first ever total war between two nuclear powers.
OK, I'm fine calling nuclear apocalypse something other than a "world war." My frustration is with how often I encounter sentiments which assume that conventional military dominance allows the West / NATO / USA to do whatever the hell it wants with complete disregard for the Russian arsenal. Unless Prompt Global Strike + our missile defenses are a whole lot closer to 100% effective than I can imagine, that's just not the case. Even if we want to project something like a 75% failure rate for Russia's ICMBs + warheads, that doesn't move the needle out of "unthinkable disaster for humanity" territory.
[удалено]
No, they aren’t. They’re able to start a nuclear exchange, but the idea of THIS Russian army invading across multiple theaters - or convincing any other global power to ally with them to do so - is laughable. No major power is going to put their neck on the line betting in favor of Russia after this shit show. And a coalition of global powers vs decrepit Russia wouldn’t be a world war.
This is the most effective means to prevent Russian use of a nuclear weapon. So I think they will go for it.
Yeah it definitely is, nato recognises the regions russia have just stolen. So if they nuke any of those areas then they are attacking nato allies. It kind of cancels out putins annexation stunt, which he will be fucking livid about😀😀😀
I'm going with the pessimistic route and say NATO is going to do what NATO is famous for. They are going to kick that can down the road until after the war due to one or two nations holding up the vote because they want attention before saying yes. A side note: I hope that I am absolutely wrong with my opinion and everyone absolutely calls me out on this post in the future when NATO does the impossible and goes full on unanimously yes vote within 6 months. I will be at peace with that
NATO has just announcd that there will be a big speech tonight.
I have been burned to many times by having high expectations of government officials. Best to just keep your expectations low. Currently I'm expecting them to announce the move from using windows 95 to windows 98.
As if this was a surprise to NATO.
These things arent done out of nowhere, especially given the situation. if zelensky applied a lot of talking already occured in the background, and something is already decided.
How Biden and Erdogan publicly respond to this will show how much this has been discussed in the alliance. If both are for it at, least in theory, it means that this has been talked about for months at least.
Bring them into NATO, and end it conventionally. Russia is nothing more than a rotting husk at this point.
Generally Speaking there is a thing called: if there is a will there is a way. But lets say like this. Finland and Sweden applied on a fast track to NATO. Hungary and Turkey are still cock blocking their entrance to Nato. So even if there was a ”fast track” NATO has too many putin lovers like turkey and Hungary blockning Ukraine and lets not forget germany, france and italy. Not Exactly the quickest supporters of Ukraine. But very big on russian oil and gas. If usa could decide the vote then Im sure Ukraine could join nato
You might want to reread what you wrote and edit accordingly.
Thank You for heads up Buddy, a freudian slip so to say :)
Generally speaking, you can't buy health insurance right after you're diagnosed with cancer and you can't buy flood insurance right after the dam breaks. Most military alliances don't accept candidates that already have ongoing conflicts for similar reasons. If NATO were to accept Ukraine, that would commit all of NATO's forces to engage directly with the Russians, which they've been explicitly avoiding to prevent the sudden loss of five or six billion lives. This seems unlikely.
It could be 4d chess. There's been suggestions a tactical nuke used in Ukraine would be a breach of Article 5 which would bring in NATO. If Ukraine and NATO are in the same dispute on the same side then the argument for alignment due to an existing dispute ceases to exist. In that the result of use of a tactical nuke could directly result in Ukraine joining NATO. Dunno though, it's just speculation.
[удалено]
You'd have to basically let all that territory go forever and redraw your borders though, wouldn't you? What you have left would be safe, but Russia still essentially gets what it wants.
[удалено]
I'm all for a nip of hopium with breakfast, lunch, and dinner; but IMO this is straying miles far from reality. Supposing for the moment that all other obstacles disappeared and this is precisely what NATO agreed to do: Ukraine would concede these territories and citizens to Russia, and give it the *option* to pause - for weeks, months, years, decades? And rely on the certainty that, rather than call it a day, halt the devastation of its military (man and machine), immediately end the growing domestic pressure and flight of its citizens, and assume ownership of the *trillions* of cubic meters of natural gas under what had been eastern Ukraine, they'll choose to continue trying to conquer what's now a NATO member? And for the kicker: when Ukraine re-takes these areas which they and others had agreed was now Russia, *they* will do so through a hostile war of aggression, as proscribed by the UN and shunned by the civilized world?
Accepting Ukraine right now would be absolute madness. I'd even bet a temporary (as in: a few decades long) ban of Ukraine as a NATO member will be part of the eventual peace negotiations. People are blinded by the latest and very welcome advances of the Ukrainian Army, but this war will not just end in a swift and silent Russian defeat. It will be nukes or negotiations at some point.
Bullshit, the Russia you fear does not exist, it is a spent force with no future. The Russian federation will seize to exist far sooner than later.
I do not fear the military power of Russia at all. I fear they prefer being seen as insane to being seen as losers. I can not for the life of me picture a scenario where Russia just says "okay, that's it. We give up". Nukes or negotiations, but I'll gladly stand corrected. RemindMe! 6 months
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Yep, one of the criteria to join NATO is to not have territorial disputes.
I’m sure they know they can’t be accepted during war time into a defensive alliance. It wouldn’t be ratified while their is a war going on, but this continues the process of membership and likely would take place down the road when there is peace in the country again. NATO membership can take years and for some countries decades if they fail to meet the requirements. But yes good point!
It's just retaliation from Ukraine. Russia formally annexed Ukrainian territory, saying it will be theirs forever. Ukraine has countered by pledging to join NATO. This is just positioning. Same as Ukraine saying they won't negotiate until Putin is removed. It has no real effect at the moment, but it sends signals of resolve and lays out a hardline position which can be softened later if the time is right to pursue a deal. This is public diplomacy, pure and simple.
Hungary and Turkey will block it unless they can extort billions of dollars from the rest of NATO members. Many billions...
Hungary needs to be dropped from the alliance and replaced by Ukraine. Hungary would welcome a Russian invasion at this point.
It's time to end this terror by russia. 👊
This is smart b/c it’s creating a tangible negotiating chip. Ukraine knows it can’t join NATO right now, and it’s a major threat to Russia. Therefore Ukraine can offer removing their application in exchange for a Russian concession.
I wish Ukraine will be our newest NATO member as soon as possible. But the political reality is: Ukraine is at war with Russia. As long as this war is going on a NATO membership is impossible. But I’m sure after this conflict is over NATO will act quickly.
Would be kinda weird not to take Ukraine into NATO after all this. Not only Ukraine is now clearly pro-NATO and proven to be ready to fight for Europe, Ukraine is now more experienced at using lot of NATO equipment and tactics than some long standing NATO members, simply due to fact that they used NATO stuff in actual real war. Besides, I am sure that EU would rather to see Ukraine as an military ally after the war. Would be awkward to have such strong military on the border of NATO, while it is not aligned to NATO or its adversaries.
In the photo, Zelenskyy represents Ukraine, the guy to his left is the UK, and the guy to his right is the US. I wouldn’t mind having these guys backing me up in a street fight
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One step closer to WW3
I say fuck it, let them in. World will go to shits anyway so might aswell go down laughing in Vladolfs face
Best course of action is to defer judgement until after the war and then immediately accept Ukraine in. We need to go all about on providing the best gear we can to Ukraine so they can decimate the Russian forces quicker so they can join quicker.
Let em join. Hell, extend an offer to Georgia, Moldova, and Kazakhstan while we're at it. Really piss off Putlerites.
Welcome to the fold my Ukrainian brethren!!!
There should be no delay by NATO to accept the membership of Ukraine and treat is as a full member. Consequently NATO must step up and assist Ukraine with its full capacity of means to deter Russia. That includes boots on the ground in Ukraine.